Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a strong performance in 2025, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 27.77% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 23.45% [2][4] - The trading volume in the Hong Kong market significantly increased compared to previous years, indicating heightened trading activity and a broad release of market profit potential [2] - The market's upward trend was driven by a clear rotation of sector leadership throughout the year, including AI technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and the metals sector [4][6] Group 2 - The technology sector was a major contributor to market gains, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 20.74% in Q1 2025, outperforming the Hang Seng Index's 15.25% increase during the same period [5] - Key drivers included investments in computing infrastructure, large model development, and AI applications, leading to significant valuation reassessments for companies like Alibaba [6] - The innovative pharmaceuticals sector gained momentum due to a surge in business development (BD) transactions, benefiting from improved global liquidity as the Federal Reserve began a rate-cutting cycle [6][7] Group 3 - The metals sector emerged as the strongest performer by year-end, with copper stocks rising by 261.85%, gold and precious metals by 197.85%, and other metals and minerals by 187.91% [9][10] - The rise in metal prices was attributed to multiple favorable factors, including the global trend of "de-dollarization," supply-demand imbalances, and domestic policies optimizing supply structures [9][11] - Notable individual stock performances included Zijin Mining rising by 162% and Shandong Gold increasing by over 183% [11] Group 4 - The overall strong performance of the Hong Kong stock market in 2025 was a result of a combination of valuation recovery, improved industry sentiment, and enhanced global liquidity [15][16] - Emerging industries such as AI, renewable energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals provided a wealth of high-growth investment opportunities, supporting long-term price increases [16] - Looking ahead to 2026, expectations remain positive for the Hong Kong market, with potential continued upward momentum driven by liquidity improvements and corporate profit recovery [16]

王爷说财经讯：你敢信吗？2025年12月31日，特朗普重返白宫执政满一年的节点，美元交出了一份"贬值10%"的成绩单！ 从年初美元指数110的高位，一路震荡跌至年末的97左右，创下2017年以来的最差年度表现。 什么情况会让曾经的"全球货币霸主"一年跌去10%？是特朗普政策的刻意推动，还是美国经济的必然结果？这波贬值接下来还会持续吗？咱们今天把这事扒 得明明白白。 01、特朗普2.0的第一年：美元下跌10%！ 先把时间拉回2025年初，特朗普2.0时代正式开启，一上台就抛出两大核心政策：对外加征10%基准关税，对内施压美联储降息。 当时市场还在期待"强势美元回归"，没成想这两大政策直接成了美元贬值的"导火索"。 数据不会说谎，上半年美元指数就狂跌10.8%，创下1973年以来同期最大跌幅，直接奠定了全年的弱势基调。 最终，在2025年一整年， 美元兑一篮子主要货币今年已大幅下挫9.5%，不仅创下近十年来最大年度跌幅；而欧元汇率飙升近14%，突破1.17关口，达到2021 年以来的最高水平。 这可不是小波动——全球贸易结算、你的海外购物、甚至手里的理财资产，都可能被这波贬值波及。 简单来说，货币就像商品，供应多 ...

Group 1 - The global precious metals market experienced a historic bull market in 2025, with silver and platinum showing annual gains exceeding 170% [1][21][28] - Gold, silver, and platinum prices all broke historical peaks, driven by strong upward momentum and a combination of supply-demand fundamentals and capital rotation [1][21][28] - The report suggests that investors should be cautious as precious metal prices have reached historic highs, recommending gradual participation after significant price corrections in January 2026 [1][21][28] Group 2 - In 2025, the overall precious metals market exhibited a broad upward trend, with silver and platinum significantly outperforming gold, reflecting dual drivers of supply-demand fundamentals and capital rotation [21][28] - The price statistics for precious metals at the end of 2025 show substantial increases, with SHFE gold rising by 58.27%, COMEX gold by 65.57%, SHFE silver by 125.85%, and COMEX silver by 142.44% [22][23][24] - December 2025 saw an acceleration in precious metal prices, particularly for silver and platinum, which experienced explosive growth, highlighting the resonance of market sentiment and supply-demand gaps [25][28] Group 3 - The core reasons for the significant price increases in precious metals in 2025 include global liquidity easing, tight supply-demand dynamics, rising geopolitical risks, and market sentiment [28][29][30] - The expectation of a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with anticipated interest rate cuts, has increased the attractiveness of non-yielding assets like gold, silver, and platinum [28][29] - Structural supply shortages in platinum and silver, driven by production constraints and high demand in industrial applications, have led to price elasticities that exceed those of gold [30][31] Group 4 - The trend of central banks accumulating gold and the move towards de-dollarization have provided structural support for gold prices, with global central banks purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold annually [30][31] - Geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in Venezuela and the Middle East, have fueled safe-haven demand for precious metals, further driving prices upward [31][32] - Market sentiment has shifted towards a "buy the rise" mentality, exacerbating price volatility and leading to speculative inflows that have amplified price increases for silver and platinum [32][33] Group 5 - The outlook for January 2026 indicates a likely continuation of high volatility in the precious metals market, with potential for differentiated performance among various metals [33][34] - Gold is expected to experience high volatility around the $4,500 per ounce mark, with potential upward movement if economic data supports further rate cuts [34] - Silver is anticipated to maintain high elasticity but faces increased risk of correction due to prior significant price increases, with expected trading in the $60-$85 per ounce range [35][36]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum price is expected to show a trending pattern, while alumina is on a long - term downward path. The financial attribute of aluminum will continue to strongly drive the price in 2026, and the global supply - demand shortage of aluminum will support the price. Alumina will maintain a cost - based pricing logic due to an oversupply situation [6][86]. - The consumption of aluminum will grow at a low rate but still have bright spots, such as in energy transformation, lightweight applications, and the export of aluminum - processed products. However, traditional industries like real estate and home appliances may still perform weakly [34][54]. - The supply of recycled cast aluminum alloy will be affected by raw material shortages and policy uncertainties, and its price will generally follow the trend of the aluminum price [89]. Summary by Directory Part One: Preface Summary 1. Market Review - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Overseas tariffs, monetary policies, and the "de - dollarization" trend have affected the aluminum price. The supply - demand contradiction and low inventory have supported the price, and the cost has decreased while the profit has increased [5]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The casting aluminum alloy futures were successfully launched this year. The price of aluminum alloy is highly correlated with the aluminum price, but the spot price of casting aluminum alloy has difficulty following the increase in the aluminum price [5]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand situation at home and abroad has turned to oversupply, and the price has declined. The industry is shifting profits to the ore end, and there are basis trading opportunities [5]. 2. Market Outlook - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The financial attribute will continue to strongly drive the aluminum price. The supply - demand shortage and low inventory will give the price greater elasticity [6]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply - demand pattern will remain slightly oversupplied, and the price will generally follow the metal sector and the aluminum price. There are risks in basis and cross - variety spreads [6]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation will continue, and the price will maintain a downward - selling strategy. There are policy risks, and basis trading opportunities still exist [6]. 3. Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral**: Be bullish on the aluminum price on dips; the absolute price of casting aluminum alloy will follow the aluminum price, and pay attention to basis and variety spread opportunities before the expiration of warehouse receipts; maintain a downward - selling strategy for alumina, and pay attention to price elasticity risks driven by policy expectations [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the expansion of the monthly spread of aluminum at low inventory levels, the convergence of the basis at the end of the off - season, and the repeated arbitrage opportunities in the internal - external price difference; for aluminum alloy, pay attention to the arbitrage opportunities in the range of a discount of 100 - 1400 yuan to the aluminum price and the spot - futures arbitrage opportunities; there are basis trading opportunities for alumina when the warehouse receipts are low and before expiration [7]. Part Two: Supply Rigidity and Global Shortage, Aluminum Price in a Trending Pattern 1. 2025 Aluminum Market Review - The aluminum price showed a volatile upward pattern in 2025, with the Shanghai Aluminum main contract price ranging from a minimum of 19,000 yuan to a maximum of 22,980 yuan, an annual increase of 13.8% [11]. - The price increase in the first and fourth quarters was mainly driven by LME aluminum, while in the second and third quarters, the price rebounded steadily after a decline [12][13]. 2. 2026 - 2030 Global Electrolytic Aluminum Supply Outlook - **Domestic**: The supply - side constraints on domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity still exist. The capacity will reach the theoretical ceiling in 2026, and the supply elasticity will decrease significantly. The production in 2026 and 2027 will have limited growth [20][21][22]. - **Overseas**: The overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity is expected to increase by 820,000 tons in 2026 and 1.65 million tons in 2027. The new - investment capacity is mainly concentrated in Indonesia [24][25]. - **Imports**: China will still rely on imported aluminum ingots in 2026, and the net import volume is expected to increase to 2.5 million tons [33]. 3. Aluminum Consumption with Low Growth but Bright Spots - **Export of Aluminum - processed Products**: The export volume of aluminum - processed products in 2025 is expected to be about 10.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.55%. It is expected to turn positive in 2026, with an increase of about 400,000 tons [34]. - **Domestic Aluminum Demand**: The proportion of domestic aluminum demand in the total apparent demand increased in 2025. The growth of domestic demand was mainly in the first half of the year, and the demand in the energy transformation and lightweight application fields will be a stable growth source [41][54]. - **Difference between Apparent Demand and Actual Output**: The apparent demand of aluminum is significantly higher than the actual output of aluminum - processed materials, mainly due to the inventory in the intermediate links of the industry [45]. - **Traditional Industries**: The demand for aluminum in the real estate industry will still be weak, and the home appliance industry is expected to have a mild growth in air - conditioner production. The "aluminum - for - copper" substitution is ongoing [59][65]. 4. Certainties and Uncertainties of Aluminum - The global aluminum supply - demand gap may continue in the next five years, which will increase the price elasticity of aluminum. Tariffs and trade barriers mainly affect the price difference between regions, and the EU's CBAM policy may increase the trading cost [69][70]. - The aluminum market has a weak tolerance for supply - side uncertainties. Overseas electrolytic aluminum plants face risks such as accidents, carbon tariffs, and energy supply, and the climate phenomenon may also affect production and demand [71]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory Expectations - **Balance Sheet**: The global economic growth is expected to be slow from 2025 to 2030. The domestic aluminum demand in 2026 is expected to increase by 2.54%. The global aluminum supply - demand gap is expected to be 570,000 tons in 2026 and 330,000 tons in 2027 [72]. - **Inventory**: Overseas, the LME aluminum spot basis has been in a premium state, and the new regulatory rules may make the price increase more stable. Domestically, the overall inventory is expected to remain stable, but attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly spread and basis during peak seasons [79][84]. 6. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Factors Affecting Aluminum Price The price of aluminum is affected by both financial and commodity attributes. In 2026, the resonance of these two attributes may push the aluminum price to break through previous highs, and the smelting profit is expected to be considerable [86]. Part Three: Recycled Cast Aluminum Alloy Expected to Follow the Aluminum Price 1. Supply - Demand of Recycled Aluminum Alloy - **Supply**: In 2025, the total built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy reached 18.67 million tons, with a low production rate due to raw material shortages, price inversion, and policy disturbances. In 2026, about 1 million tons of new capacity are expected to be put into operation, but the supply growth is still restricted [89]. - **Demand**: The demand for recycled aluminum alloy is mainly from the transportation industry, especially in the automotive sector. The demand growth rate is expected to slow down in 2026 [94][95]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The industry is expected to face a shortage in 2025 and 2026. The futures market may drive demand, but the expiration of warehouse receipts may widen the basis [102]. 2. Scrap Aluminum Raw Materials - The global scrap aluminum trade has been growing steadily. China's scrap aluminum is in short supply and relies on imports. The application of scrap aluminum in non - alloy products is increasing, which will keep the scrap aluminum in short supply and narrow the refined - scrap price difference [105][108]. 3. Price and Spread of Recycled Aluminum Alloy The price of recycled aluminum alloy is highly correlated with the aluminum price. In 2026, it is expected to follow the aluminum price, but the seasonal performance of the spread may be weaker than in previous years [113][114]. Part Four: Alumina in an Oversupply Situation with a Long - term Downward Path 1. 2025 Alumina Market Review The alumina price showed a downward trend in 2025, mainly due to the improvement of the supply - demand situation. The price rebounded in May and July but then continued to decline. The domestic production capacity and output increased significantly [120][121][124]. 2. Alumina Supply Outlook - **Domestic**: The domestic alumina production capacity is expected to increase in 2026, with a theoretical maximum output of 103.68 - 104.68 million tons. After considering dynamic balance, the output is expected to be about 99.45 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [127][128]. - **Overseas**: The overseas alumina production is expected to increase by about 7% to 61.73 million tons in 2026 [133]. 3. Alumina Supply - Demand Balance Expectation The growth rate of electrolytic aluminum production is not significant, and there will be an oversupply of about 4 million tons at home and abroad in 2026. The alumina price will mainly follow the cost - based pricing logic, but the price may rebound if the supply - demand surplus narrows [141]. 4. Bauxite with Significant Increment and Expected Price Decline In 2025, the domestic bauxite production increased slightly, and the import volume increased significantly. The supply of bauxite is expected to be in surplus in 2026, and the price is expected to continue to decline, which will drive the alumina price down [145][153][154].

14只商品型黄金ETF全部涨超56% 6只黄金ETF规模破百亿元 今年以来一路涨不停的黄金在12月底再度数次创出新高。12月29日，伦敦现货黄金盘中一度突破每盎司4550美元，大大刷新10月底每盎司4381美元的高点。 潮新闻客户端 记者 吴恩慧 12月31日A股刚收盘，杭州90后投资者周先生看了看他的黄金ETF，"真不错，今年半路上车，也赚了5万多元，这个黄金ETF是我今年最好的投资。" 回望2025年，现货黄金从年初的2620美元/盎司起步，到12月29日的4550美元/盎司高点，一年大涨超60%，并创下50多次历史新高。 "几乎每天都能看到黄金的新闻、热搜，涨也好，跌也好，我当时就在想，怎么样也跟随黄金牛市去赚点投资收益。"周先生说，借道黄金ETF，成为很多像 他这样普通投资者配置黄金的选择。 投资者的选择没错，在现货黄金大涨带动下，今年14只商品型黄金ETF大涨近60%，6只黄金股ETF则全部涨超86%，而赚钱效应又吸引投资者涌入，使得 今年黄金ETF规模扩张明显。 Wind数据显示，截至12月31日收盘，全市场已有6只黄金领域ETF管理规模突破百亿元，头部产品年内实现快速放量。业内人士认为，黄金在美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, breaking the 7.0 mark and reaching a 15-month high, is attributed to both external factors, such as the weakening of the US dollar, and internal economic resilience in China [1][3]. Group 1: External Factors - The US dollar has weakened significantly, with the dollar index dropping from 110 to 98, a nearly 10% decline within the year, which has contributed to the yuan's rise [3][5]. - The Federal Reserve's actions, including three interest rate cuts and monthly purchases of $40 billion in US Treasury bonds, have diminished the attractiveness of dollar assets, prompting global capital to seek alternatives [5]. Group 2: Internal Factors - China's economic resilience is highlighted by a turnaround in export growth and a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in the first eleven months, which has bolstered foreign exchange inflows [7]. - The influx of foreign capital into Chinese assets has surged, with overseas holdings of yuan-denominated assets surpassing 10 trillion, providing substantial support for the yuan's appreciation [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts are divided on whether the yuan can consistently enter the "6" range, with some predicting a rise to 6.2-6.3, while others caution against expecting a one-sided trend, emphasizing the importance of maintaining exchange rate stability [11]. - The yuan's trajectory in 2026 will be influenced by key variables such as the economic disparity between China and the US, the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, the attractiveness of yuan assets, and Sino-US trade relations [13].

受到隔夜市场波动影响，12月30日黄金基金ETF（518800）跌2.05%。虽然有观点认为贵金属短期 已经超买，但从中长期来看，支撑金价的降息、去美元化、地缘政治等因素依然坚实。作为资产配置的 一部分，在回调后可能是较好的布局时点。 近期，贵金属价格波动比较剧烈，金价回调一定程度上受到银价溢出效应的影响。在周一夜盘（美 国交易时间），白银现货一度突破84美元/盎司，比上周的收盘价上涨近10%，使得今年以来的涨幅创 下1951年来的记录，但随后快速下跌10%以上。黄金、铂金等贵金属价格也随之回调。 导致这一结果的原因包括但不限于：（1）海外流传中国作为世界第三大白银生产国，可能限制白 银出口，马斯克在X平台发文称"这不是好事，白银在许多工业流程中都是必须的"。这促进了银价早期 的上涨。（2）芝商所将白银期货的保证金上调25%，以应对近期的波动，这可能促使杠杆交易者不得 不部分平仓以符合保证金要求。（3）临近年底，跟踪彭博和标普商品指数的基金将开始调仓，这涉及 数千亿美元的规模，投资者将大概率卖出今年涨幅较多的黄金和白银，以匹配新的权重，一些非指数基 金持有人可能在指数调整前"抢跑"提前卖出。据悉，指数调整将于 ...

摘要周三（12月31日）亚市盘中，贵金属经历踩踏式抛售后开始收复失地，金银窄幅震荡，现货黄金目 前交投于4370美元/盎司附近，现货白银交投于75.50美元附近。进入2025年末，黄金市场经历了剧烈的 过山车行情。纵观全年，黄金价格已累计上涨66%，有望成为自1979年以来表现最为亮眼的一年。 金瑞期货：从宏观和基本面来看，明年美联储货币政策宽松利率回落的趋势并未发生改变，中长期包括 主权国家赤字问题、地缘风险以及去美元化驱动的央行购金等因素并未改变，白银以及铂的供需矛盾也 持续存在，贵金属价格的长期核心驱动因素仍保持稳健 国投期货：隔夜贵金属转涨。美联储会议纪要显示官员分歧严重，不过大多数与会者认为如果通胀如预 期随时间下降，进一步下调利率可能是适当的。美联储宽松前景以及地缘风险支撑贵金属强势，但资金 推动下涨幅过大，阶段性调整在所难免，短期谨慎参与，波动率下降后维持多头参与思路。 西南期货：当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，"逆全球化"和"去美元化"大趋势，利好黄金的配置价值和 避险价值。各国央行的购金行为对黄金走势也形成了支撑。但近期贵金属大幅上涨，投机情绪显著升 温。预计市场波动将显著放大，多单可离场后暂 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the gold and silver markets are expected to maintain a strong trend driven by the transformation of the macro - financial order and the tight micro - supply - demand structure, but their logical paths will significantly diverge [1][2][3]. - Gold's core narrative revolves around the deepening of "de - dollarization" and the revaluation of credit assets. It is expected to rise in a high - level shock in 2026, with the price range between $4,700 - $5,055 per ounce [2]. - Silver will enter an independent bull market dominated by "rigid industrial demand" and "supply bottlenecks". It is expected to challenge the $75 - $100 per ounce range in 2026 [3]. - For trading strategies, gold should be allocated as a "ballast stone" in the portfolio on dips; silver can be considered for trend - following long positions driven by industrial demand, but strict stop - losses are required. Attention can be paid to the arbitrage window brought by the mean - reversion of the gold - silver ratio [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025: Gold and Silver Continued to Shine 1.1 K - shaped Differentiation in the Performance of Major Asset Classes in 2025 - Equity and fixed - income assets: Chinese stocks rose 17.60% in 2025, and global stocks rose 17.63%. In the bond market, domestic bonds' returns dropped to 0.64%, while global bonds were relatively stable at 3.02% [9]. - Precious metals: Gold's return reached 53.91% in 2025, and silver's return was as high as 132.11%, becoming the best - performing asset class of the year [10]. - Energy and commodities: Crude oil had a return of - 10.82% in 2025, falling for two consecutive years. Industrial products and agricultural products also showed negative growth [11]. - Other assets: Real estate continued to slump, while foreign exchange and cash had stable and moderate positive returns [13][14]. 1.2 Liquidity Release and Demand Imagination Space Boosted the Surge of Gold and Silver - Gold showed strong anti - decline ability, with positive returns in 9 out of 12 observed years. In 2025, its increase was as high as 53.91% [15]. - Silver had higher volatility and elasticity. In 2025, it soared by 132.11%, driven by strong industrial demand and financial speculation funds [15]. 1.3 Multiple Narratives Drove the Soaring of Gold and Silver in 2025 - Gold market: It had two clear bull markets in 2025. The first wave was triggered by Trump's radical policies, and the second wave was due to the Fed's dovish turn and the revaluation of the US dollar's credit. At the end of the year, the price fluctuated at a high level [17][18]. - Silver market: It lagged behind in the first half of the year and then led the rise. In December, a "short - squeeze" market pushed the silver price to a new high [21]. 2. Multiple Factors May Push the Gold Price Higher 2.1 Global Monetary System Reconstruction: Gold Value Revaluation under the De - dollarization Wave - Dollar's decline in global reserves: The dollar's share in global official reserves dropped to 56.3% in Q2 2025, and it is expected to continue to decline. Gold's share in global official reserves has increased, and it is expected to reach the historical median level of 34% in 2026 [25][32]. - Emerging market central banks' gold purchases: Since 2022, emerging market central banks have been accelerating their gold purchases to hedge against the dollar risk. In 2022 - 2024, the average annual gold demand of central banks was 1072.3 tons, more than double the previous level [33]. 2.2 Monetary Policy Easing of Countries Led by the Fed - Global monetary policy has shifted from tightening to easing since 2025. The Fed's interest - rate cuts will reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is beneficial to the gold price [41][43]. 2.3 Long - term Benefits of Expansionary Fiscal Policy and Global Debt Levels to the Gold Price - The continuous expansion of fiscal deficits and government debts in major economies, especially the US, has weakened the credibility of sovereign - credit currencies. Gold, as a hard asset, has become the preferred choice to hedge against such risks [45]. 2.4 Re - evaluation of Inflation Expectations and Gold's Safe - haven Attribute - In 2026, global inflation shows significant differentiation. Whether inflation is high or there is a deflation risk, the value of gold as an ultimate safe - haven asset will be reflected [51][55]. 2.5 Market Investment Demand: Resonance of Institutional Allocation and ETF Fund Inflows - Global gold ETFs: In 2025, the inflow of funds into global gold ETFs reached a new high since 2020. In 2026, the return of ETF investors and the continuous buying of central banks will jointly push up the gold price [56][58]. - Institutional investors' re - balance of gold asset allocation: In 2026, adding gold to the investment portfolio can reduce volatility and improve risk - adjusted returns. The proportion of gold assets held by institutional investors has increased from 1.5% to 2.8% [60]. 2.6 Geopolitical Risks: Ultimate Safe - haven Asset in an Uncertain Environment - Geopolitical conflicts: In 2025, geopolitical tensions provided support for the gold price. In 2026, although the risk may be reduced, it cannot be completely eliminated, and gold's strategic value will continue to exist [62][63]. - Global elections: The elections in major economies in 2025 - 2026 will bring policy uncertainties, which will strengthen the allocation value of gold as a tool to hedge against policy risks [66]. 2.7 Gold Supply Side: Fundamental Constraint of Scarcity - Gold supply is limited. The annual growth rate of new gold mining is slow, and the production cost has increased significantly. The cost - support effect on the gold price will be reflected in the pricing [69][72][73]. 2.8 Gold Demand Side: Strong and Diverse - Global gold demand has been increasing in the past three years. The consumption structure is changing from jewelry - dominated to investment and official - reserve - driven. Central bank gold purchases and gold ETF investments have become the key driving forces [77][79][80]. 3. The Global Silver Supply - Demand Gap is an Important Driver of Capital Inflows 3.1 Silver Supply Status and Capacity Bottlenecks - Silver supply has been in a state of tightness. The annual compound growth rate of global silver mine production has been negative since 2019. More than 70% of silver comes from associated mines, which restricts supply growth. It is expected that the supply growth will remain slow in the future [81][83]. 3.2 Photovoltaic Industry: Core Growth Engine of Silver Demand - The photovoltaic industry is the core driver of silver demand growth. The demand for silver in the photovoltaic field accounts for 17% of the total silver demand in 2024. The replacement of P - type batteries by N - type batteries will increase the demand for silver [88][89]. 3.3 Silver Demand Potential in the New - Energy Vehicle Field - New - energy vehicles have become an important growth engine for silver demand. The silver consumption of pure electric vehicles is 1.7 times that of fuel - powered vehicles. It is predicted that the annual growth rate of silver consumption in the automotive industry will be 4.5% - 12.5% from 2025 - 2027 [94][96]. 3.4 Silver Demand Potential in the Fields of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, and the Internet of Things - These emerging fields provide new application spaces for silver. The silver demand in these fields is expected to increase significantly in the future, and they will jointly form the "four pillars" of silver industrial demand [97][98]. 3.5 Support of Continuous Inventory Depletion to the Silver Price - As of December 2025, global silver inventories are at a low level. The low - inventory problem is caused by the long - term contradiction between the explosion of photovoltaic demand and the rigidity of mineral supply, which will support the silver price in the future [100][103][104]. 4. Forecast of Gold and Silver Price Trends in 2026 4.1 Forecast of Gold and Silver Price Trends in 2026 by This Report - Gold: It is expected to rise in a high - level shock in 2026, with the price range between $4,700 - $5,055 per ounce. The price may fluctuate around $4,700 in the first half of the year, break through $5,000 in the middle of the year, and may be adjusted in the second half of the year, but the decline will be limited [105][106]. - Silver: It will enter an independent bull market driven by "structural shortages" in 2026, with the price range between $75 - $100 per ounce. The price is more determined by inventory and delivery risks [108][109]. 4.2 Forecast of Gold and Silver Price Trends in 2026 by Other Institutions - Gold: Most international investment banks are optimistic about the gold price in 2026, with target prices concentrated in the $4,500 - $5,055 range [111][112]. - Silver: The current price has exceeded most institutions' forecasts. Some institutions expect the silver price to reach $100 per ounce [113][114]. 5. Gold and Silver Trading Strategies in 2026 5.1 Unilateral Strategies for Gold and Silver in 2026 - Gold: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips and use it as a core allocation in the investment portfolio. Buy in batches when the price corrects by 5% - 10% [117]. - Silver: Closely monitor the development of key industries such as photovoltaics and new - energy vehicles. Adopt an active long - position strategy when the industrial demand is strong, and set strict stop - losses [118]. - Hedging strategy: Adding precious metals to the investment portfolio can reduce the overall asset volatility and effectively disperse risks [119]. 5.2 Arbitrage Trading Based on the Mean - Reversion of the Gold - Silver Ratio - The gold - silver ratio has a characteristic of mean - reversion. When the ratio is at an extreme level, buy the undervalued one and sell the overvalued one. In 2026, pay attention to the extreme changes in the gold - silver ratio for arbitrage opportunities [122][123].

【纠错】 【责任编辑:薛涛】 新华社纽约12月30日电（记者徐静）继12月29日大跌9%之后，美国纽约商品交易所白银期货价格30日 大涨超过9%，白银市场震荡加剧。 当天，纽约商品交易所2026年3月白银期货价格一度涨至每盎司77.44美元，涨幅达9.89%。 2025年末，白银价格飙升，吸引了众多投资者的关注，也带来剧烈的市场波动。法国兴业银行分析师表 示，尽管根据某些模型白银的上涨行情可能被定义为泡沫，但在全球"去美元化"趋势加剧和经济前景高 度不确定的背景下，白银需求仍将保持强劲。 ...