2025年08月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：PPI超预期打压降息预期 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：小幅回落 | 3 | | 铜：美元回升，价格承压 | 5 | | 锌：短期震荡 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，价格获支撑 | 9 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 10 | | 铝：震荡运行 | 12 | | 氧化铝：小幅下跌 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：矿端支撑逻辑削弱，冶炼端逻辑限制弹性 | 14 | | 不锈钢：多空博弈加剧，钢价震荡运行 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：行业库存小幅去化，震荡运行 | 16 | | 工业硅：关注市场情绪变动 | 18 | | 多晶硅：消息面扰动增加 | 18 | | 铁矿石：钢铁现实需求改善有限，高位回调 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：需求不及预期，偏弱震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：需求不及预期，偏弱震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：板块情绪偏弱，偏弱震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：板块情绪偏弱，偏弱震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：情绪回落，高位下修 | 25 | | 焦煤：情绪回落，高位下修 | 25 | | ...

2025年08月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：PPI超预期打压降息预期 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：小幅回落 | 2 | | 铜：美元回升，价格承压 | 4 | | 锌：短期震荡 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，价格获支撑 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：震荡运行 | 11 | | 氧化铝：小幅下跌 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：矿端支撑逻辑削弱，冶炼端逻辑限制弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：多空博弈加剧，钢价震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 15 日 黄金：PPI 超预期打压降息预期 白银：小幅回落 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基 ...

Market Overview - Major US stock indices showed mixed performance, with the S&P 500 slightly up by 0.03%, while the Dow Jones and Nasdaq remained nearly flat [1] - The S&P 500's current valuation is nearly 40% higher than the 20-year average based on forward P/E ratios, influenced by higher-than-expected inflation data [1] Inflation Data - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July increased by 0.9% month-over-month, marking the largest single-month rise in three years, significantly above the market expectation of 0.2% [1] - Year-over-year, the PPI rose by 3.3%, exceeding the anticipated 2.5% [1] - Core PPI, excluding food and energy, also rose by 0.9% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, indicating rising costs in both services and goods [1] Employment Data - Initial jobless claims decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, aligning with expectations, while continuing claims fell to 1.95 million, suggesting a resilient job market despite signs of cooling [2] Individual Stocks - Intel's stock surged by 7.4% following reports of potential government investment discussions [2] - Amazon and Netflix both rose over 2%, while Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, and Meta saw slight increases [2] - Tesla's stock fell over 1%, and Apple experienced a minor decline [2] - Cisco Systems dropped by 1.6% as its earnings guidance met expectations but failed to boost investor confidence [2] Other Companies - Deere & Co. shares fell by 6.8% due to a decline in quarterly profits and a lowered full-year guidance [3] - Tapestry, the parent company of Coach, plummeted by 15.7% as its full-year earnings forecast fell short of expectations, with both companies warning about the impact of US tariffs on their businesses [3] Commodity Market - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude oil futures up by 2.09% to $63.96 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures increasing by 1.84% to $66.84 per barrel [3] - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.74% to $3,383.20 per ounce [3]

科技股表现分化，中概股集体调整 在个股方面，科技巨头表现分化。亚马逊涨超2.8%，谷歌涨0.39%，微软涨0.36%，Meta涨0.26%，英伟 达涨0.24%，而苹果和特斯拉则分别下跌0.24%和1.12%。 | 名称 | 现价 涨跌 涨跌幅 ▼ 年初至今 | | --- | --- | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 230.980c 6.420 2.86% 5.28% | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)-C | 203.820c 0.790 0.39% 7.28% | | 微软(MICROSOFT) 522.480c 1.900 0.36% 24.43% | | | 脸书(META PLATFORMS) 782.130c 2.050 0.26% 33.80% | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 182.020c 0.430 0.24% 35.56% | | 苹果(APPLE) | 232.780c -0.550 -0.24% -6.71% | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 335.580c -3.800 -1.12% -16.90% | 中概股则集体进入调整状态，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌2.13%，热门 ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin price reached a new all-time high of $123,500, surpassing the previous record of $123,205.12 set on July 14 [1][3] - The market for cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, is experiencing a surge, driven by favorable legislative conditions and increased demand from companies [3] Group 1: Market Performance - Bitcoin's market capitalization is approximately $2.5 trillion, while Ethereum's market cap is nearly $575 billion, together accounting for 70% of the total global cryptocurrency trading volume [3] - The correlation between speculative assets like cryptocurrencies and mainstream stock indices is evident, with both being driven by similar optimistic sentiments [3] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The recent U.S. inflation data met expectations, reinforcing market predictions for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which has led to a shift of funds from blue-chip stocks to more volatile digital assets [3] - Institutional participation through ETFs is seen as a strong driver for Bitcoin's price increase, while Ethereum's rise is attributed to buying activity from corporate finance departments [3]

Market Overview - US stock market opened lower on August 14, with the Dow Jones down 0.4%, Nasdaq down 0.27%, and S&P 500 down 0.25% [1] - Semiconductor stocks fell sharply, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping over 1%, and notable declines in companies like Coherent (down over 20%) and others like NXP, AMD, and TSMC ADR [3] - Chinese concept stocks also experienced significant declines, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 1.9% [3] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin dropped over 3%, falling below $120,000, while Ethereum and Avalanche also saw declines exceeding 3% and 6% respectively [4] - Over 21,000 individuals experienced liquidation in the cryptocurrency market within 24 hours, with total liquidations amounting to $1.047 billion [6][7] Commodity Market - Gold prices fell slightly, with spot gold down 0.4% and silver down 1% [8] - The energy sector saw a rise, with NYMEX WTI crude oil increasing by 1.68% to $63.70 [8] Economic Indicators - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.9% month-on-month in July, marking the largest single-month increase since June 2022, significantly above the expected 0.2% [9] - Year-on-year, the PPI increased by 3.3%, the highest since February, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target [10] Federal Reserve Commentary - Federal Reserve officials are tempering aggressive rate cut expectations, with San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly opposing a 50 basis point cut in September [11] - Daly supports gradual policy adjustments, suggesting two rate cuts this year may be reasonable, depending on labor market conditions and inflation trends [12]

Coinglass数据显示，最近24小时内，加密货币全球有超21万人爆仓。 中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌超2%。热门中概股多数走低，小鹏汽车、阿里巴巴跌超4%，哔哩哔哩跌超2%。 | < W | | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数(HXC) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 08-14 11:45:01 | | | | | 7588.86 *** | | 7749.62 | 成交额 | 0 | | -160.76 -2.07% | 今开 | 7612.58 | 成交量 | 0 | | 上 涨 0 | 平 盘 | 0 | 下 跌 | O | | 最高价 7653.05 | 市智率 | 20.6 | 近20日 | -1.22% | | 最低价 7563.06 | 市净率 | 2.13 | 今年来 | 12.21% | | 分时 五目 | | 周Ｋ | 月K | 更多 6 | | 章加 7936.18 | | | | 2.41% | | 14 9.62 | | | | 0.00% | | | | | | -2.41% | | 9:30 11:00 | | 12:45 | ...

Group 1: Semiconductor Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell over 1%, with Coherent dropping more than 20% and other companies like ON Semiconductor, Lattice Semiconductor, and Amkor Technology declining over 3% [2] - Major players such as Texas Instruments, AMD, and ASML ADR saw declines exceeding 1%, while TSMC ADR fell nearly 1% [2] Group 2: Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped over 2%, with popular Chinese stocks like Xpeng Motors and Alibaba falling over 4%, and Bilibili down over 2% [2] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, falling over 3% to below $120,000, with the latest decline narrowing to 2% [4] - In the last 24 hours, over 210,000 individuals faced liquidation in the cryptocurrency market [5] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July saw a year-on-year increase from 2.3% to 3.3%, the highest level since February, significantly exceeding the expected 2.5% [6] - The core PPI year-on-year rose to 3.7%, also the highest since February, with a month-on-month increase of 0.9%, marking the largest rise since April 2022 [7] - Federal Reserve officials are reportedly looking to temper aggressive rate cut expectations, with comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly opposing a significant rate cut in September [7]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a non-typical bull market characterized by low-risk returns and rising risk appetite, despite no significant improvement in corporate earnings [3][10]. Market Performance - On August 14, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a high of 3704.77 points, surpassing the previous year's peak but ultimately closed at 3666.44 points, losing the 3700-point mark [5]. - Over 4600 stocks declined, yet the market saw a significant trading volume of 2.3 trillion yuan, marking a new high for daily trading volume this year [5][6]. - Retail investors have become a major source of incremental funds, with new A-share accounts reaching 1.9636 million in July, a 71% increase year-on-year [5]. Fund Performance - The performance of equity funds has improved, with 12 funds achieving over 100% net growth year-to-date as of August 13 [8]. - Notable funds include Huatai-PB Hong Kong Advantage Selection A, which has returned 132.55% this year [9]. - The issuance of new funds has rebounded, with over 670 billion yuan in new fund shares issued this year, a 30% increase compared to the previous year [9]. Market Dynamics - The market is witnessing a positive cycle of momentum and profit, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 3674-point resistance level, potentially attracting more funds [6][10]. - The influx of high-risk preference funds, including margin trading and speculative capital, is contributing to the market's upward momentum [6][10]. - Analysts suggest that the current market focus is on high-growth sectors such as pharmaceuticals and overseas computing power, with a potential shift in trading logic expected around September [11].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market continues its upward trend, with the Dow Jones potentially reaching new highs, although synchronized increases across major indices could signal a clearer reversal [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are experiencing relatively moderate gains, while the Dow Jones and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index show signs of acceleration [1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has been consolidating in the 5500-5800 point range for over a month, indicating significant resistance [1] - Recent breakthroughs in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lack sufficient volume, raising concerns about a potential "false breakout" leading to a genuine pullback that could negatively impact tech stocks [1] Group 2: Inflation Concerns - The decline in oil prices may be masking underlying inflation pressures, as energy constitutes a significant portion of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] - Core CPI, excluding energy factors, has shown a slight increase, although market expectations for interest rate cuts have overshadowed inflation concerns [1] Group 3: Tariff Implications - Tariff issues have seemingly faded from market focus, but new tariffs that took effect on August 1 are expected to have a gradual impact over the next 3-6 months [1] - Upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data release is anticipated to be significant for market analysis [1]