Core Viewpoint - The recent trade tensions between China and India, marked by India's imposition of tariffs on steel imports and China's anti-dumping investigation into medical equipment components, reflect deeper strategic rivalries rather than isolated economic disputes [1][3][10]. Trade Policies - India has imposed a 12% temporary tariff on imported steel products to protect its domestic industry from what it perceives as cheap Chinese imports, claiming it aims to curb the impact on local manufacturers [3][5]. - The Indian government has previously enacted selective bans on Chinese products, such as drone components and apps, while allowing American companies to operate freely, indicating a strategic alignment with U.S. interests [3][5]. Strategic Implications - The timing of India's tariff announcement coincided with the U.S. extending tariffs on Chinese goods, suggesting a coordinated effort to counter China [3][10]. - India's approach to balancing relations with major powers, including the U.S. and Russia, while simultaneously engaging in confrontational policies towards China, highlights its complex geopolitical strategy [5][10]. Economic Impact - China's response to India's tariffs includes a swift anti-dumping investigation into critical components for medical imaging equipment, which could significantly impact India's healthcare sector, as 65% of its high-end medical imaging devices are imported, with 40% from China [7][11]. - The potential expansion of China's countermeasures to include India's pharmaceutical and IT sectors, where India exports over $3 billion in drug raw materials to China, could lead to severe economic repercussions for India [7][11]. Trade Relations - In 2024, the trade volume between China and India exceeded $130 billion, with China remaining India's largest trading partner for the 15th consecutive year, surpassing India's trade with the U.S., Russia, and Japan combined [11][16]. - Despite political rhetoric advocating for reduced dependence on China, Indian imports from China increased by 7.3% in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a reliance on Chinese goods [11][16].

从技术上来看，对于市场无规律的炒作避险情绪也不要盲目追随，按照今日早间行情再疯狂拉升的状 态，今日上方可能会继续去测试3400整数关口，但是情绪上过于亢奋的状态还是不宜去盲目追随看涨， 更不宜去盯着避险情绪的枪口去硬刚搏空。日内下方则着重关注10、5日线3310-00一带的测试，短线如 果欲参与，则有待回撤5、10日线再考虑短多。至于后期走势，则多关注周四凌晨美联储利率决定，期 间依旧要着重紧盯地缘局势的演变，以及特朗普关税政策的影响。 总之，当前黄金市场受多种因素综合影响，走势存在不确定性。金友需密切关注美联储利率决议、国际 贸易局势等关键。不过就目前局势来看，早间一波大涨几十美金，很容易造成一个卖预期行情，操作上 尽量还是回调在进场即可。 故日内操作上张津镭建议： 黄金：3350-3353做多，止损3340，目标看3390-3400一线，破位持有。 张津镭：避险升温致金价大涨，美联储会议将成"胜负手" 昨日黄金走了一个震荡反弹行情吗，亚盘开盘震荡走高午盘反弹至3270后回落一波至3250上方。随后金 价再度反弹，晚间突破3300关口，最高是到了3337美元一线，最终金价是收盘于3334美元，日线收于一 根 ...

基本面： 现货黄金报3335附近美元/盎司； 现货白银报32.50美元/盎司； -----------日内金融市场热点----------------- 13:45 瑞士4月未季调失业率(%) 16:30 英国4月SPGI服务业PMI终值 20:30 美国3月贸易帐(亿美元) 周二（5月6日）亚市盘初，现货黄金在近一周高位窄幅震荡，目前交投于3330美元/盎司附近。受美元走软和避险需求推动，金价周一上涨近3%，现货黄金 收报3333.73美元/盎司，较上周五收盘价上涨近100美元，市场正在等待美联储本周晚些时候的政策决定。美元指数周一下跌 0.2%，使得黄金对其他货币持 有者来说价格降低；市场权衡特朗普总统关税政策的持续不确定性及其对经济的影响。美元兑亚洲货币走软，部分原因是一些投资者在传出美国将加征更多 关税的消息后，清空了大量未对冲头寸。 美元在亚洲遭到抛售，部分原因是一些人担心美国最早将于周三宣布对半导体征收关税，而且有传言称，在这些双边贸易谈判中，美国可能会让东亚货币升 值。美国总统特朗普周日宣布对海外生产的电影征收100%的关税，再次引发了对全球贸易战潜在后果的担忧。财政部长贝森特周一为特朗普的关税 ...

上天天基金APP搜索【777】领 98 元券包 ，黄金基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 金价，卷土重来！ 在调整多日后，金价再度大涨。5月5日，现货黄金及COMEX黄金期货价格涨幅一度超过2.7%。其中，现货 黄金盘中突破3320美元/盎司，日内一度上涨超80美元。 今年以来，金价累计涨幅超过26%。世界黄金协会发布的报告显示，一季度全球金价20次突破历史新高，受此 影响，全球金饰消费总量同比下降21%，为2020年以来的最低点。不过，黄金投资需求大幅增长，一季度全球 黄金投资需求量为551.9吨，同比大增170%。这说明，在金价屡创新高的背景下，全球金饰需求下降，但黄金 作为投资产品的属性更被看好。 3月份，金价首次突破3000美元大关；4月份，金价又多次刷新历史新高。4月22日，现货黄金价格首次突破 3500美元门槛，随后连续多日调整，直至5月5日再度大幅上涨。金价的此轮上涨，是在全球经济增长放缓、关 税不确定性增加和央行购买推动需求上升的背景下发生的。在持续的不确定性中，黄金被视为一种受欢迎 的"避险"资产。 有分析指出，5月5日金价上涨，主要缘于美元走软和避险资金流入。稍早之前，美国总统特朗普宣布 ...

摘要周二(5月6日)亚盘时段，国际黄金表现强劲，截至发稿金价暂报3378.09美元/盎司，涨幅1.32%。本 交易日将出炉美国3月份贸易帐，投资者需要予以关注，另外，需要继续关注地缘局势和国际贸易局势 的相关消息。 周二(5月6日)亚盘时段，国际黄金表现强劲，截至发稿金价暂报3378.09美元/盎司，涨幅1.32%。本交易 日将出炉美国3月份贸易帐，投资者需要予以关注，另外，需要继续关注地缘局势和国际贸易局势的相 关消息。 【要闻速递】 特朗普当地时间周日宣布，他计划对海外制作的电影征收100%的关税，这是他对美国进口产品的限制 性贸易政策首次延伸至娱乐业。这再次点燃投资者对全球贸易战潜在后果得担忧。 当地时间周一，美国总统特朗普签署关于生物医药研究的命令，希望借机促进美国药品制造业。 特朗普并宣布，将在未来两周内宣布对医药产品的关税措施。 此外，周一，知情人士透露，美国在最近的谈判中拒绝了日本提出的全面豁免10%的对等关税以及针对 特定国家的关税的要求。 消息人士称，包括美国财长贝森特在内的美国官员上周在华盛顿与日本首席谈判代表赤泽亮正举行会谈 时表示，特朗普政府打算只削减14%的特定国家关税，该关税暂停至 ...

STARTRADER星迈发现在特朗普政府贸易政策掀起的惊涛骇浪中，芝加哥零售商吉姆・图克勒(Jim Tuchler)的 遭遇，意外地与美联储主席鲍威尔产生了共鸣。这场由关税动荡引发的经济风暴，正以超乎想象的力量，打乱 企业的经营节奏，也让美联储的货币政策制定陷入前所未有的困境。 图克勒在电商平台上的一次普通采购，却演变成一场充满未知的 "胆小鬼博弈"。他下单的 "价值 8 万美元的丝 袜"，在关税的阴云笼罩下，最终账单可能飙升至 20 万美元。这种巨大的不确定性，让这位经验丰富的零售商 陷入迷茫，他不禁质问："这种环境下怎么做商业计划?" 图克勒的困惑，正是无数美国企业的缩影。当进口成本 与出口税率如同飘忽不定的幽灵，企业无法准确预估成本与利润，正常的生产、采购、销售等商业活动都失去 了可靠的参照，如同在迷雾中航行的船只，找不到方向。 企业的困境直接传导至宏观经济层面，让美联储的政策制定者们焦头烂额。美国加征对等关税，本意在保护本 土产业，但却可能引发通胀抬头，推高物价水平;而消费者因对经济前景担忧而减少支出，以及各国采取的报复 性措施，又会压制产出、阻碍企业招聘新员工和进行投资。这些相互矛盾的经济信号，如同 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government's tariff policies are causing significant harm to its own economy, with analysts suggesting that these measures are more detrimental than beneficial [1][3] - The U.S. national debt has reached an alarming $10.8 trillion, with interest payments consuming 24% of the federal budget, highlighting the financial strain on the government [3] - The recent tariff policies have led to retaliatory tariffs from other countries, adversely affecting U.S. industries and leading to job losses, particularly in the Midwest [3][7] Group 2 - The 90-day delay in tariff implementation is framed as a grace period for trade partners, but it is actually a desperate measure to buy time for the U.S. government amid a debt crisis [5] - Core inflation in the U.S. has surged to 6.2%, with food prices rising dramatically, indicating a growing cost-of-living crisis for American households [5] - The U.S. is pressuring other countries to increase investments in the U.S. as part of the tariff delay conditions, reflecting a sense of economic desperation [5] Group 3 - China's response to U.S. tariffs, such as halting soybean purchases from the U.S., is significantly impacting American farmers and industries reliant on Chinese imports [7][8] - The trade war has led to increased prices for consumer goods, with examples such as hair products and sports shoes seeing substantial price hikes due to tariffs [7][15] - The ongoing trade conflict is revealing the limitations of the "America First" policy, as the U.S. becomes increasingly dependent on global supply chains [8] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies are creating tension between the Trump administration and the central bank, with potential implications for inflation and national debt management [9][11] - If interest rates are lowered as requested, inflation could exceed 9%, complicating the government's ability to manage its debt and social welfare programs [11] Group 5 - The impact of tariffs is being felt by ordinary Americans, with rising prices for essential goods leading to financial strain on households [13][15] - The narrative of American workers suffering due to trade policies is underscored by personal stories of increased costs and job losses in various sectors [13][15] Group 6 - The global response to U.S. tariffs includes countries forming new trade agreements and financial systems, indicating a shift towards a multipolar world economy [17][19] - The ongoing globalization trend is emphasized by the growth of cross-border e-commerce, demonstrating that trade is fundamentally about mutual benefit rather than zero-sum competition [19]

Fundamental Analysis - Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on overseas film production has raised global trade war concerns, increasing market uncertainty and driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - The U.S. services sector showed signs of recovery in April, with the non-manufacturing PMI rising from 50.8 in March to 51.6, indicating positive growth [3] - However, the index measuring corporate payment prices surged to its highest level in over two years, driven by tariff impacts, leading to increased inflationary pressures [3] - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's policy decision, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% [3] - Due to the ongoing effects of Trump's tariff policy, market expectations for a rate cut in June have dropped to 37%, with major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Barclays pushing back their rate cut predictions to July [3] Technical Analysis - The gold market exhibited a clear shift in momentum last week, initially experiencing a consolidation phase before a downward trend took hold [5] - A significant bullish reversal occurred on Monday, with gold prices rising sharply and closing with a large bullish candle, indicating a potential shift back to a bullish market [5] - Current technical indicators suggest that if gold can maintain support above the moving averages, an upward trend may continue; otherwise, a new round of adjustments could occur [5] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 3353, 3370/3371, and 3386, while support levels are at 3305 and the critical zone of 3270-3260 [7][8]

上周，现货黄金市场经历剧烈波动，周线下跌2.28%，收于3240.60美元，较4月22日创下的历史高点 3500.05美元回落约7%。今日欧市盘中，黄金大幅上涨，目前在3257美元附近徘徊。 特朗普重大宣布！ 上周，经济数据暂缓市场担忧，美三大指数集体收涨，最终道指涨3%，标普500指数涨2.92%，纳指涨 3.42%。 本周，全球金融市场即将迎来"美联储时刻"。 当地时间5月7日，美联储将公布最新利率决议，目前市场一致预期，美联储将按兵不动。 芝商所FedWatch工具显示，美联储5月维持利率不变的概率高达97.2%，降息25个基点的概率为2.8%； 美联储到6月维持利率不变的概率为65.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为34%，累计降息50个基点的概率 为0.9%。 因此，下周美联储利率决议最大的看点或许是美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会。有分析人士警告称，鲍 威尔可能会以"鹰派"基调反驳美联储将受到美国白宫影响的说法，这可能导致美国总统特朗普与鲍威尔 冲突再度升级。 此前，特朗普再次表示不会罢免鲍威尔。 当地时间5月4日，美国总统特朗普在接受美国全国广播公司（NBC）采访时，再次批评了美联储主席 鲍威尔不降低 ...

近期，美国政府以各种借口"借题发挥"，对包括中国在内的所有贸易伙伴挥舞关税大棒，不仅严重侵犯 各国正当权益，严重违反世贸组织规则，更暴露出美国在全球治理中的深层困境，终将损人害己、得不 偿失。 中美建交40余年来，两国经贸合作始终以市场规律为基础，形成了"你中有我、我中有你"的利益交融格 局。中美经贸合作的韧性源于共同利益，如果仅是一方受益，中美经贸关系不可能取得长足发展。 中美贸易合作凸显优势互补。2024年中美贸易额达6882亿美元，较2017年增长18%。这种增长并非单方 面"占便宜"，而是基于互补性分工的共赢结果。2024年联合国《工业化的未来》报告显示，中国的制造 业产值已占全球总量的35%。中国制造业为美国提供质优价廉的终端产品，美国则以技术、品牌和服务 优势占据价值链高端，美对华服务贸易长期保持顺差。美国挥舞关税大棒，理由是"美国长期存在货物 贸易逆差"。这一逻辑选择性忽视了美国在服务贸易中的压倒性优势。若仅以货物贸易逆差断言"美国吃 亏"，无异于以管窥天。 中美双向投资合作彰显利益交融。目前，超过7万家美国企业在华投资，年利润超500亿美元。中国美国 商会报告显示，46%的受访美资企业表示有望 ...