新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-19 关注铝价超预期回调后的机会 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21460元/吨，较上一交易日变化-170元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-30元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-30元/吨；中原A00铝价21340元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-10元/吨至-150元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21320元/吨，较上一交易日变化-160元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-15元/吨至-165元/ 吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-11-18SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2840元/吨，山东价格录得2775元/吨，河南价格录得 2865元/吨，广西价格录得2910元/吨，贵州价格录得2935元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得320美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-11-18氧化铝主力合约开于2817元/吨，收于2780元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化-20 元/吨，变化幅度-0.71%，最高价达到2822元/吨，最低价为2775元/吨。全天交易日成交264359手，全天交易日 持仓405010手。 铝合金价格方面：2025-11-18保太民用生铝采购价格16700元/吨， ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Report 20251119: Slightly Rising Expectations of Fed Rate Cuts Support Copper Prices" [2] Report Core View - Overseas copper mines face production disruptions, but the slightly increased probability of a Fed rate cut in December due to weak US employment performance may lead to a sideways consolidation of Shanghai copper prices [3] Data Summary Shanghai Copper Futures - On November 18, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract was 86,450, a decrease of 800 from the previous day; the trading volume was 101,029 lots, an increase of 2,940 lots; the open interest was 179,927 lots, a decrease of 15,531 lots; the inventory was 56,965 tons, an increase of 3,909 tons [3] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 86,510, a decrease of 505; the average discount of SMM flat - water copper was 65, an increase of 35; the average premium of SMM premium copper was 165, an increase of 45 [3] - The average discount of SMM wet - process copper was - 55, a decrease of 60; the average premium of SMM Guixi copper was 205, an increase of 70; the average discount of EQ copper was - 100, a decrease of 70 [3] - The average SMM RMB Yangshan copper premium was 279.72, an increase of 0.17; the average SMM Yangshan copper premium (warehouse receipt) was 32, unchanged; the average SMM Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) was 47, unchanged [3] - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai copper was - 120, a decrease of 110; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 0, unchanged; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 40, an increase of 60 [3] London Copper - On November 18, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,766.5, a decrease of 68.5; the total registered and cancelled warehouse receipt inventory was 140,500 tons [3] - The spread between the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contracts was - 32.62, a decrease of 32.62; the spread between the LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contracts was 110.75, an increase of 110.75 [3] - The ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.0295, an increase of 0.02 [3] COMEX Copper - On November 18, 2025, the closing price of the active COMEX copper futures contract was 5.05, a decrease of 0.08; the total inventory was 381,296 tons, an increase of 7,992 tons [3] Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Supply - There are disruptions in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, resulting in a continuous negative China copper concentrate import index, leading to a tight domestic copper concentrate supply - demand expectation. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic blister copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in January decreased month - on - month [3] Demand - The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper plate strips, copper tubes, and brass rods increased compared to last week, while the capacity utilization rate of recycled copper rods decreased. The weakening of copper prices led to an increase in new downstream orders [3] Inventory - The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper increased compared to last week; the inventory of electrolytic copper on the London Metal Exchange decreased compared to last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper increased compared to last week [3] Trading Strategy - Hold previous short positions cautiously or stop losses at low prices. Pay attention to the support level around 82,000 - 84,000 and the resistance level around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level around 10,300 - 10,500 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 11,500 for London copper; the support level around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance level around 5.2 - 5.5 for US copper [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas risk appetite is continuously contracting, and the domestic stock and bond markets are both weak. There is a risk of a phased correction in the A - share market, and the bond market is likely to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern in the short term [2][3]. - The resumption of US official data may intensify short - term fluctuations in precious metals prices, and attention should be paid to the Fed's meeting minutes and non - farm payrolls report [4][5]. - There are risks in the artificial intelligence bubble, and copper prices will continue to adjust. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to adjust, and alumina will maintain a weak and volatile state [6][7][8]. - Cast aluminum prices will follow the market for a correction with limited amplitude. Zinc prices have support below, and lead price declines will slow down. Tin prices will oscillate in the short term and have room for growth in the long term [11][12][13]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to enter a weak and volatile phase. Lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate widely, and nickel prices will be in a weak and volatile state [15][16][17]. - The prices of soda ash and glass will oscillate at a low level. Steel prices will oscillate, and iron ore prices will mainly oscillate. Coking coal and coke prices will oscillate weakly [21][22][23]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices will oscillate, and palm oil prices will oscillate and strengthen in the short term [27][28][29]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: US employment data is weak, risk appetite is contracting, the US dollar index is oscillating strongly, US bond yields are falling, US stocks are generally down, and gold and oil prices are rising while copper prices are falling. Attention should be paid to non - farm payrolls data and technology sector earnings reports this week [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market has fallen for three consecutive days, the two - market trading volume remains above 1.9 trillion yuan, and small - cap stocks have adjusted more significantly. The margin balance has cooled down, and there is a risk of a phased correction. The bond market is also weak, and the long - term interest rate has risen slightly, maintaining a volatile pattern [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Tuesday, international precious metal futures prices first declined and then rose. The latest US employment data is weak, which boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. The resumption of official data may intensify short - term price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the Fed's meeting minutes and non - farm payrolls report [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper and LME copper both adjusted downward. There are risks in the artificial intelligence bubble. More Fed officials are questioning the December interest rate cut. With the end of the government shutdown, attention should be paid to unemployment claims and CPI data. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level decline in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum prices both fell. The US initial jobless claims reached a two - month high, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has slightly increased. The market is waiting for more key data. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to adjust [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the alumina futures price fell. The spot price has declined, and the expectation of production cuts has increased. However, there is still an oversupply in reality, and it will maintain a low - level and volatile state [9][10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Tuesday, the cast aluminum alloy futures price fell. The cost side has support, the supply has little change, the demand is stable, and the price will follow the market for a correction with limited amplitude [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Tuesday, Shanghai zinc and LME zinc showed different trends. The US employment data is poor, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has slightly increased, and the market is waiting for NVIDIA's earnings report. Zinc prices have support below, and the short - term price trend depends on the macro situation [12]. 3.8 Lead - On Tuesday, Shanghai lead and LME lead both showed a weak trend. Affected by the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and LME inventory accumulation, lead prices have support from the cost side and slow inventory accumulation, and the decline will slow down [13]. 3.9 Tin - On Tuesday, Shanghai tin and LME tin oscillated. The US dollar is strong, and the market is waiting for more macro guidance. There are concerns about the supply side, and the demand is strong. Tin prices will oscillate in the short term and have room for growth in the long term [14]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, industrial silicon oscillated narrowly. The supply side has a marginal convergence, the demand side is weak, and the price is expected to enter a weak and volatile phase [15][16]. 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - On Tuesday, lithium carbonate prices oscillated downward, and the spot price rose. The futures market has strong selling pressure, and the spot trading is poor. With the arrival of imported resources, the supply shortage may be alleviated, and the price will fluctuate widely [17][18]. 3.12 Nickel - On Tuesday, nickel prices were weak. The terminal demand is low, the inventory is at an absolute high, and the price is expected to be in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream supply [19][20]. 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - On Tuesday, the prices of soda ash and glass futures both oscillated weakly. The downstream demand is not improving, and the prices will oscillate at a low level [21][22]. 3.14 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated. The spot market trading and prices are stable, the supply pressure has decreased after steel mill production cuts, but the demand is still weak, and steel prices will oscillate [23][24]. 3.15 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated. The port inventory has slightly decreased, the supply is still high, the demand has a short - term rebound but the medium - term reduction expectation remains unchanged, and the price will mainly oscillate [25]. 3.16 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - On Tuesday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated weakly. The coal mine production has increased, the coke price increase has limited improvement in coking enterprise losses, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The price will oscillate weakly [26]. 3.17 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, bean and rapeseed meal futures fell. China has purchased 792,000 tons of US soybeans. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the Brazilian soybean sowing progress is over 90%. The supply is loose, and the price will oscillate [27][28]. 3.18 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil futures rose. The US biodiesel policy may exceed market expectations, and India's vegetable oil inventory is at a low level, with potential import demand. Palm oil prices will oscillate and strengthen in the short term [29][30].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong performance of the precious metals sector in the A-share market, driven by a rebound in international gold prices and various supportive factors [1][3] - The precious metals sector index reported a daily increase of 1.13%, reaching 21,914.85 points, with a trading volume exceeding 834 million yuan and a net inflow of 27.05 million yuan from main funds [1] - Key stocks within the sector, such as Hunan Gold and Shandong Gold, showed notable increases of 1.72% and 1.34% respectively, reflecting the overall positive sentiment in the market [1] Group 2 - The rise in the precious metals sector is attributed to three main factors: weak U.S. employment data increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, ongoing global central bank gold purchases totaling 623 tons in the first half of 2025, and a 37% increase in geopolitical risk index compared to 2024 [1] - The E Fund Gold ETF (159934) has shown a strong performance with a year-to-date return of 48.36%, despite a short-term pullback of -8.09% in the past month, indicating robust market demand for safe-haven assets [2] - The fund's strategy of closely tracking Au99.99 spot contracts allows it to reflect the domestic spot market trends accurately, benefiting from global gold purchases and the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut [2][3] Group 3 - The current market is characterized by a 50% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, creating opportunities for investors to capitalize on short-term volatility [3] - Investors are advised to consider a systematic investment or phased accumulation strategy, with allocation proportions between 2% to 10% of their asset portfolio, focusing on the long-term investment value of precious metals amid the trend of "de-dollarization" [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Multiple Fed officials' hawkish remarks have put pressure on precious metal prices. The probability of a Fed rate cut in December has dropped below 40%. Short - term precious metal prices may adjust due to upcoming US economic data and uncertain future expectations. However, factors such as global debt expansion, fiscal deficit growth, continuous gold purchases by central banks, and geopolitical risks may support precious metal prices in the medium - to - long term [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 929.46 yuan/gram on 2025 - 11 - 18, down 23.74 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 307,687.00, and the open interest was 101,723.00, down 29,322.00 from the previous week. The closing price of spot Shanghai gold T + D was 930.22 yuan/gram, down 16.28 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 82,068.00, and the open interest was 232,228.00, down 946.00 from the previous week [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 11,933.00 yuan/ten - gram on 2025 - 11 - 18, down 418.00 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 1,026,209.00, and the open interest was 233,702.00. The closing price of spot Shanghai silver T + D was 11,970.00 yuan/ten - gram, down 356.00 yuan from the previous week. The trading volume was 759,026.00, and the open interest was 51,236.00 [1]. - **COMEX International Gold**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 4045.10 US dollars/ounce on 2025 - 11 - 18, down 39.30 US dollars from the previous day. The trading volume was 231,322.00, and the open interest was - 12,222.00. The London gold spot price was 4071.10 US dollars/ounce. The SPDR gold ETF holding was 1041.43 tons, down 2.57 tons from the previous week [1]. - **COMEX International Silver**: The closing price of the futures active contract was 50.05 US dollars/ounce on 2025 - 11 - 18, down 0.35 US dollars from the previous day. The trading volume was 11,693.00, and the open interest was 70,253.00. The London silver spot price was 52.01 US dollars/ounce [1]. Important Information - Trump's chief economic advisor Hasset said that AI - driven productivity gains may lead to a "quiet period" in the job market, and the Fed should be truly "data - driven" [1]. - Fed Chair candidate Waller supports a December rate cut, while Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson emphasizes a slow - paced policy approach [1]. Trading Strategy - Wait for price pull - backs to enter long positions. For London gold, pay attention to support levels around 3850 - 3950 and resistance levels around 4180 - 4384. For Shanghai gold, focus on support around 870 - 890 and resistance around 960 - 1000. For London silver, watch support around 38 - 45 and resistance around 52 - 55. For Shanghai silver, look at support around 10000 - 11000 and resistance around 12400 - 13000 [1].

Gold Market - The recent decline in gold prices is primarily due to hawkish statements from multiple Federal Reserve officials, which have led to a decrease in market expectations for interest rate cuts [2] - At the beginning of November, the market had anticipated over an 80% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, but this expectation has rapidly diminished, tightening market liquidity and strengthening the US dollar index, thereby suppressing gold prices [2] - On November 18, Federal Reserve official Waller reiterated the need for a rate cut in December, which temporarily boosted bullish sentiment in the gold market [2] - Analyst Mai Dong from Bailihau believes that the sustainability of the gold price decline is weak, and the market will refocus on the upcoming US non-farm payroll data to be released on Thursday [2] - From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows a small bearish candle with a long lower shadow, while the hourly chart indicates a breakout above the 60-day moving average, suggesting a weak trend reversal phase [2] Oil Market - As of November 19, reports indicate that US sanctions are significantly reducing demand for Russian oil, with the US Treasury Department stating that recent efforts to weaken Russia have been successful [4] - The focus of the oil market has been on Russian supply, particularly following attacks on Russian oil facilities and the effectiveness of Western sanctions on Russian oil exports, which have supported a short-term increase in oil prices [5] - From a technical standpoint, the daily chart shows a bullish candle, and the market has broken out of a rectangular consolidation pattern, testing the resistance level at $61.20 [5] - Current prices are above the 60/120-day moving averages, but the bullish advantage is not strong, with today's focus on whether prices can maintain above $61.20, while support is noted at $60.10 and resistance at $61.40 [5] Copper Market - The daily chart indicates a bearish candle, with prices trading below the 60/120-day moving averages, continuing a downward trend [7] - The market showed signs of consolidation yesterday, gradually correcting the divergence, with support noted at $4.86 and the potential for prices to test and possibly break below $4.90 [7] Nasdaq Market - The daily chart reflects a bearish candle, with prices also trading below the 60/120-day moving averages, indicating a continuation of the downward trend [8] - Today's focus is on the support level at 24,000 and resistance at 24,700 [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The weak US employment data has increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut, and the global risk appetite continues to decline. The slowdown of China's economic data in October and the Fed's hawkish signals have dampened market risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and the market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies, economic growth, and Fed monetary policy expectations. [3][4] - Different asset classes are expected to be in a short - term volatile state, and investors are advised to be cautious. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Overseas**: US employment data is weak, with a decrease in private - sector employment and an increase in continued unemployment claims, which raises the expectation of a Fed rate cut and cools global risk appetite. [3] - **Domestic**: China's economic data in October slowed down year - on - year and fell short of expectations, and the central bank restarted treasury bond trading to release liquidity. However, the Fed's hawkish signals dampened risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and the stock index will be volatile in the short term. [3][4] - **Asset Recommendations**: Stocks are in short - term volatility, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; treasury bonds are in short - term volatility, and cautious long - positions are recommended; commodity sectors such as black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and precious metals are all in short - term volatility, and cautious waiting is recommended. [3] Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as coal, batteries, and industrial metals, the domestic stock market continued to fall. The slowdown of economic data and Fed's signals dampened risk appetite. The short - term upward drive has weakened, and the stock index will be volatile in the short term. Short - term cautious waiting is recommended. [4] Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose slightly on Tuesday night. The weak US employment data led the market to assess the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December. The short - term trend is volatile, and the medium - to - long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term cautious waiting and medium - to - long - term buying on dips are recommended. [4] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market rebounded slightly on Tuesday, with low trading volume. Real - world demand is weak, and supply is restricted by losses. The market has no new contradictions, and the price has limited room to fall or rise. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended. [5][6] - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore rebounded slightly on Tuesday. Iron - water production increased slightly, and demand is still strong in the short term, but the bottom of iron - water production is uncertain. The supply and demand situation has slightly improved. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended. [6] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Tuesday, but the futures prices fell. The demand for ferroalloys is weak. The operating rates and daily outputs of silicon manganese and silicon iron enterprises decreased. The futures prices are expected to remain range - bound. [7] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash main contract was weak on Tuesday. Supply decreased marginally due to some device overhauls, but the overall supply pressure remains. Demand for heavy soda is stable, and that for light soda has slightly recovered. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term and bearish in the medium - to - long term. [8] - **Glass**: The glass main contract oscillated on Tuesday. Supply remained stable, and there is a cold - repair expectation at the end of the year. Demand improved marginally, but downstream demand is still weak, and inventory is high. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term. [8] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Copper prices have fallen recently. The high US copper inventory and the slow de - stocking in China limit the price increase. The suspension of an Indonesian copper mine will support the futures price, but there is a risk of a downward break in the short term. [9][10] - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fell sharply on Tuesday. The Fed rate - cut expectation declined, and the inventory increase indicates poor de - stocking. If the expectation is repaired later, the aluminum price may decline significantly. [10] - **Tin**: The supply of tin is still tight, but the demand is weak. The social inventory has increased. The tin price is expected to remain range - bound at a high level in the medium - to - short term. [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate main contract rose on Tuesday. After a previous sharp increase, the weighted contract significantly reduced positions. Investors are advised to wait and see due to large price fluctuations. [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon main contract fell on Tuesday. After the end of the wet season, production in the southwest decreased, and the supply - demand is weak. It is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises. [12] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The polycrystalline silicon main contract fell on Tuesday. There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. It is expected to be range - bound at a high level. [13] Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The methanol market in the inland region mainly fell. The overall inventory is rising, and supply is expected to increase in the short term while demand is weak. There is a risk of shutdown in high - cost areas, but the gas - restriction devices have not been implemented. It may fall in the short term but is supported by the expectation of gas - restriction and cost. [14] - **PP**: The PP market showed a weak oscillation. Demand has improved, but the supply growth rate is too fast, leading to inventory increases. With the approaching of the traditional off - season, the demand is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to continue to decline. [14] - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price is weak. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand support will gradually weaken. With weak cost support, the price is expected to continue to be under pressure. [15] - **Urea**: The urea market is firm with a slight increase. Supply pressure persists, and demand is differentiated. The price is under downward pressure in the short term but may stabilize after oscillation in the medium - to - long term. [15] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans remained stable at a high level supported by the news of China's potential purchase. The soybean harvest rate in the US is lower than last year and the five - year average, and the sowing in Argentina is delayed due to floods. [16] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply and demand of soybean and rapeseed meal in domestic oil mills are loose, and the basis is weak. With the weakening of US soybeans, the meal price may continue to correct, but it may stabilize later due to the slowdown of soybean procurement. [17] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The supply of soybean oil exceeds demand, but the cost support from US soybeans makes the price stable and slightly strong. Rapeseed oil is in a state of continuous de - stocking, and the price is supported by the Canadian bio - fuel incentive plan. [17] - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in December. Due to the policies in Indonesia, the palm oil price is expected to rise in the next few months. The domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term. [17] - **Corn**: The current inventories of corn in northern ports, feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are low. The futures may correct the basis, and the price is expected to be slightly strong. [18] - **Pigs**: The early - morning pig price was stable and slightly strong. The market supply is still in excess, but the farmers' reluctance to sell and the expected reduction in pig enterprises' sales support the price to be weakly stable. [18]

中国资产方面，中概股普跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.15%。 截至收盘，欧洲主要股指集体下跌，欧洲斯托克50指数跌1.85%，英国富时100指数跌1.32%，法国 CAC40指数跌1.86%，德国DAX30指数跌1.60%，富时意大利MIB指数跌2.12%。 美股三大指数集体收跌，道琼斯指数跌1.07%，标普500指数跌0.83%，纳斯达克综合指数跌1.21%。 大型科技股多数下挫，亚马逊、AMD跌超4%，微软、英伟达跌超2%，特斯拉跌超1%。 热门中概股涨跌互现，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.42%，爱奇艺涨超6%，百度涨超2%，阿里巴巴、 网易涨超1%；拼多多跌超7%并创5月27日以来最大跌幅，老虎证券跌超2%，蔚来跌超1%。 11月18日晚，美股三大指数集体低开，随后跌幅扩大。科技股多数下跌，半导体板块普跌，美光科技跌 超5%，台积电跌超2%。存储芯片股同步走低，闪迪跌近10%，西部数据跌超5%。 美股科技七巨头指数跌近2%，英伟达、特斯拉、亚马逊、微软、脸书均跌超2%。 全球网络安全公司Cloudflare的网络出现全球性宕机事故，导致服务中断数小时，目前已恢复正常。 Cloudflare股价盘前一度下 ...

本周，金银价格明显下跌。昨日，沪金、沪银期货价格跌幅较大。分析人士认为，美联储降息预期下降 是近期贵金属价格下跌的主要原因。 此前，美国政府结束"停摆"，短期市场流动性恢复，风险资产普涨，金银价格明显上行。宝城期货宏观 研究员龙奥明认为，本轮金银价格下跌，主要原因是近期美联储多位官员相继发表"鹰"派言论，导致市 场降息预期下降。 白银方面，严梦圆认为，美联储内部分歧加剧影响降息预期，若"鹰"派官员增加则将进一步增强银价下 跌压力。本周将有多位美联储官员在公开场合进行表态，都将对降息预期起到指导作用。 "多位美联储官员的表态给此前市场的降息预期泼了'冷水'，11月初市场一度预期美联储12月降息概率 超过90%。短期降息预期快速下降收紧了市场的流动性，推动了美元指数走强和美国国债收益率回升。 这对于以美元计价的黄金和白银来说，意味着持有成本增加，也间接压制了其价格。"龙奥明表示。 （文章来源：期货日报） 黄金方面，本周沪金价格跌幅较大，浙商期货贵金属分析师郑弘认为，除了受降息预期下降的影响外， 11月地缘政治风险也在下降、全球贸易摩擦缓和，整体市场避险情绪有所降温。 "这些数据将直接影响市场对美联储12月降息的预 ...

第二个因素是全球AI炒作开始降温，市场担心AI泡沫存在破裂的风险。 今年9月份以来，美联储一共降息了2次，分别为今年9月份和10月份。但是，从乐观的角度考虑，美联储可能会在今年12月份再降息一次。然而，美联储是 否降息依然存在一定的变数。 今年10月至11月中旬，美国上演了43天的停摆，并导致了部分核心经济数据无法如期发布。因为多项核心数据未能够如期发布，从而影响到美国经济的政策 制定，或成为影响美联储12月份降息的一个原因。 同时，美联储接连释放出鹰派言论，对股票市场而言，美联储的一举一动对股市影响深远。从美国接连停摆到美元指数走强，再到美联储释放出鹰派信号， 美联储12月降息的预期大打折扣，加快了资金从股票市场流出的速度。 针对AI泡沫的问题，近期已有多家顶级投资机构密集抛售英伟达的股票，包括软银集团、桥水基金等。有部分机构投资者选择了清仓式抛售，对当前的AI 估值表示了担忧。 全球股市遭遇黑色星期二，包括亚太股市、欧美股市等都出现了不同程度的跌幅。美东时间11月18日，美股三大指数继续收跌，道琼斯和纳斯达克指数均下 跌超过1%。其中，自高点下跌以来，纳斯达克指数的累计跌幅已经超过了7%，本轮调整成为了今 ...