21世纪经济报道记者赖镇桃 广州报道 全球市场仍在紧盯关税谈判的最新进展，但美国滥施关税霸凌行为带来的经济风险已经近在眼前。 《21世纪》：具体来说，欧元区经济需要警惕哪些关税触发的风险？ Matt Gertken：欧洲应重点关注以下三方面风险，首先是，如果美国方面发布强劲的金融和宏观数据， 可能会使特朗普政府更加有底气采取进一步的关税政策。其次，欧盟经济增长疲软，这将削弱其在贸易 摩擦升级情况下的反制能力。再者，全球经济增长乏力，将影响欧洲的经济基本面，并削弱其吸引全球 资本、相较于美国的投资竞争力。 本周，全球经济分析公司BCA Research首席地缘政治策略师Matt Gertken接受了21世纪经济报道专访。 BCA Research是一家总部位于加拿大的投资研究公司，主要为美国、欧洲、中国、新兴市场的客户提供 资产和宏观经济分析。 在Matt Gertken看来，特朗普政府近期可能会优先与部分贸易伙伴达成协议，从而赢得更大政策空间施 压欧盟和其他地区，不过特朗普最终可能还是会妥协让步，以避免美股继续回调进入熊市区间。 美欧贸易摩擦或将升级 《21世纪》：您怎么评估特朗普政府关税对欧盟经济的冲击？ ...

美国推出新一轮的单边关税政策 1 2025年4月2日，在美国的"解放日"中，美国政府宣布了国家紧急状态并推出了覆盖所有美国贸易伙伴 的"互惠"(reciprocal)关税政策。而在此之前，已经有多项针对其主要贸易伙伴（如中国，加拿大、墨 西哥等）的关税政策出台，部分已经进入执行状态。 在2024年，美国的进出口逆差超过了1.2万亿美元 1 ，在此情况下这一次的关税体现了两个特点，第 一为覆盖范围广——覆盖所有贸易伙伴，即使美国的贸易顺差国家也被加以10%的关税，第二为有针 对性的差异化税率，美国的主要贸易逆差国家和地区被加征更高的关税。 | 2 | | --- | 美国与中国的关税博弈自2018年始， 特朗普开始第二任期后再次升级 本文选自科尔尼 2025 年 4 月 8 日刊发的行业通讯，现全文分享。 中美作为全球最大的两大经济体，2024年中美双边贸易额约6800亿美元，其中美国对中国出口约 1600亿美元，美国从中国进口约5200亿美元，贸易逆差约3600亿美元 2 。 其中中国主要出口机电产品、纺织鞋服、金属制品等，美国主要出口机械电子、农产品、能源等，因 此这些行业中的企业受关税影响较大。 美国政府 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The ethylene glycol market maintains a weak and volatile pattern due to increased arrivals and pessimistic demand expectations. The cost side is affected by Sino - US tariff games, causing oil price fluctuations. The supply side has multiple device changes, and the overall start - up load has declined. The demand side shows a certain polyester load, and the inventory has decreased. There is a need to wait for inventory depletion signals for valuation repair opportunities [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Price**: The spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The closing price of the main contract was 4,113 yuan/ton, a 0.02% increase from the previous trading day, with a basis of 107 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost**: Sino - US tariff games have intensified oil price fluctuations. WTI crude oil closed at $61.94 per barrel, and Brent oil closed at $65.04 per barrel [3]. - **Supply**: Multiple ethylene glycol production devices have changes in start - up and shutdown schedules. As of April 17, the overall start - up load in mainland China was 65.32% (a 1.73% decrease from the previous period), and the planned arrivals at the main ports from April 14 - 20 were about 16.1 tons [3]. - **Demand**: The polyester load was around 93.4%, and the total turnover in the Light Textile City was 9.27 million meters [3]. - **Inventory**: On April 14, the inventory at the main ports in East China was about 771,000 tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons from the previous period [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Futures and Spot**: The main contract price of MEG futures increased by 0.02%, the trading volume increased by 23.12%, and the open interest decreased by 17.52%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 0.12%, and the basis decreased by 0.93% [6]. - **Profit**: The profit of naphtha - based production decreased by 12.14%, the profit of ethylene - based production increased by 1.27%, the profit of methanol - based production increased by 2.75%, and the profit of coal - based production remained unchanged [6]. - **Start - up Load**: The overall start - up rate of ethylene glycol decreased by 0.37%, the polyester factory load decreased by 1.50%, and the loom load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 15.62% [6]. - **Inventory and Arrivals**: The inventory at the main ports in East China decreased by 3.63%, the inventory in Zhangjiagang remained unchanged, and the arrivals increased by 8.32% [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Macro - dynamics**: China's central bank released March financial data, showing that financing demand is slowly recovering. However, the tariff war has brought uncertainties, and the central bank's supportive policies are waiting for opportunities. The US plans to impose new tariffs on Chinese products such as semiconductors and electronics [7][8]. - **Domestic and Overseas Markets**: The external market of MEG declined in the morning, and the internal market was also weak. The current spot basis and forward contract basis have corresponding price ranges [9]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the price of ethylene glycol futures and spot, international spot prices, profit calculations of mainstream processes, start - up rates of domestic devices and the polyester industry chain, import arrivals, port out - bound volumes, and inventory at the main ports in East China [11][12][14][15][17][19][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall neutral for commodities and stock index futures [4] Core Viewpoints - External risks are rising, but the domestic trend remains optimistic. China's economy is forming a new pattern driven by domestic demand and innovation [1] - The US "reciprocal tariff" policy intensifies stagflation trading, and the subsequent tariff game continues, which may push the Fed into a stagflation policy dilemma [2] - Pay attention to the abnormal movements of US Treasury bonds and the US dollar, and be vigilant about the emotional impact on commodities in the short - term and focus on stagflation allocation in the long - term [3] - After the short - term tariff event impacts global assets, pay attention to liquidity risks. Wait for the market to stabilize and then focus on the allocation opportunities of anti - inflation assets and A - shares [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's policies in March are positive, with an increase in the deficit rate, a decrease in the CPI target, and an expansion of government credit. The official manufacturing PMI in March improved month - on - month, and the GDP in the first quarter increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The A - share market was active on April 17th. Also, pay attention to the possibility of domestic policy easing [1] Tariff Policy - Trump signed an executive order on "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2nd, imposing a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners. The subsequent tariff game is complex, and the US - China tariff war has escalated. The US tariff policy may lead to stagflation and put pressure on the Fed [2] US Treasury Bonds and US Dollar - The long - term US Treasury bond yield has risen rapidly, mainly due to concerns about US Treasury bond buyers this year. The US dollar has been affected by Trump's policies, and the US liquidity situation needs further tracking [3] Commodities - For industrial products, be vigilant about the emotional impact from the adjustment of the US stock market. For agricultural products, the probability of price increases is higher. The oil market supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, and the certainty of gold is relatively strong [3] Strategy - Overall neutral for commodities and stock index futures. Pay attention to liquidity risks in the short - term and look for three signals of sentiment easing, and then focus on anti - inflation assets and A - shares after the market stabilizes [4] News - The Ministry of Commerce will accelerate the introduction of policies such as optimizing tax - free shopping for outbound tourists. The European Central Bank cut interest rates on April 17th. The US - Japan trade negotiation will have the next round in a month [1][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Currently in the observation period after the escalation of tariff games, there is a risk of further escalation externally, while domestically, it is in the stage of waiting for macro - policy hedging. The risk of extreme tariff pressure from the outside has been gradually digested, but the risk of the performance reports of listed companies in late April has not been fully digested. The short - term market may still experience a shock and pullback. Although the "national team" unexpectedly supported the market on Tuesday, its intention needs to be observed. The domestic demand and technology sectors are still the key areas to focus on. An arbitrage strategy of going long on CSI 300 and short on CSI 1000 is recommended, and short positions on CSI 1000 can be gradually closed according to market conditions during market pullbacks, while retaining long positions on CSI 300 according to one's own position [3][11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The US New York Fed Manufacturing Index in April was - 8.1%, higher than the expected - 14.5 and the previous value of - 20, indicating that the decline of the US manufacturing industry has slowed down. There has been no progress in the US - EU trade negotiations, and the EU expects the US to maintain its tariff policy. White House Press Secretary Levitt emphasized that Trump is willing to reach an agreement with China. Although the tariff negotiation is at a stalemate, there is a risk of escalation. Overnight, the US dollar index rebounded slightly, US Treasury yields declined, gold prices rose, the three major US stock indexes fell, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated. Continued monitoring of tariff news is needed as it will increase asset volatility [1][5] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Tuesday, the broader market opened lower, fluctuated, and then rose 0.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.27%, and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.13%. The market showed a narrow - range index fluctuation and a differentiated stock performance. The banking sector led the gains, indicating an attempt to stabilize the index, but market risk appetite did not significantly recover. The "national team" intervened to support the market during the intraday index pullback, mainly focusing on the CSI 300, while the CSI 2000 showed no action, indicating a clear intention to stabilize the index. The beauty care, banking, household appliances, textile and apparel, and media sectors led the gains, while the military, commerce and retail, electronics, and steel sectors led the losses. There were 2,417 rising stocks and 2,811 falling stocks in the entire market [2][6] 1.3 Important News - Trump stated that the suspension of tariffs is for a transition period and for flexibility, and will accelerate the issuance of all necessary licenses to NVIDIA, which faces a cost of $5.5 billion due to US export restrictions, and its stock price fell 6% after - hours [7] - The US launched an investigation into the national security risks posed by key minerals and their derivatives that rely on imported processing [7] - US Vice - President Vance said that the US and the UK are likely to reach a "great trade agreement" [8] - Canada will suspend tariffs on some US goods for six months and conditionally exempt some counter - measures against imported US cars. Mexico strengthened inspections, and fuel imports from the US Texas border came to a halt. The EU expects the US to maintain its tariffs due to little progress in negotiations [8][9] - Premier Li Qiang emphasized during a research trip in Beijing that greater efforts should be made to promote consumption, expand domestic demand, and strengthen the domestic economic cycle. The Chinese real estate market still has significant development potential in the current and future periods [9] - China and Vietnam issued a joint statement on deepening their comprehensive strategic partnership and accelerating the construction of a China - Vietnam community with a shared future of strategic significance [9] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association held a symposium on preventing "involution - style" vicious competition in photovoltaic inverters and energy storage, and initially reviewed an initiative for the healthy development of the inverter and energy storage industries [9] - A new national standard for electric vehicle batteries was announced, requiring no fire or explosion in thermal diffusion tests [10] 1.4 Today's Strategy - As mentioned in the core view, focus on domestic demand and technology sectors, and adopt the arbitrage strategy of going long on CSI 300 and short on CSI 1000 [3][11] 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and positions of various futures contracts such as Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change rates, basis, trading volume, and position changes [13][14] 3. Spot Market Tracking - It presents the performance of various spot market indexes such as the Wind All - A Index, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, including current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading volumes, and changes in trading volumes. It also analyzes the impact of different market styles (cycle, consumption, growth, finance, stability) on indexes like the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, and provides data on index valuations, trading volumes, and turnover rates [32][33][35] 4. Liquidity Tracking - It shows the central bank's open - market operations (money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection) and the SHIBOR interest rate levels [51]

1. 主力资金托底市场情绪，哪些行业受关税事件影响较小？ 自2025/4/2美国宣布对各国加征关税，尤其对中国加征34%关税以来，中美之间再次开始了关税博弈，全球资产波动剧烈，A股市场情绪也受关税冲击事件影响产生了较大的波 动。清明假期后首个交易日，A股市场三大指数集体下挫，创业板指跌12.5%，创史上最大单日跌幅，沪指失守3100点，全市场超5200只个股下跌，逾2900只个股跌停。 | | 本周涨跌幅 | 4月7日 | ４月８日 | ４月９日 | 4月10日 | 4 月 11 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | -3.11 | -7.34 | 1.58 | 1.31 | 1.16 | 0.45 | | 沪深 300 | -2.87 | -7.05 | 1.71 | 0.99 | 1.31 | 0.41 | | 中证 500 | -4.52 | -9.55 | 0.75 | 2.12 | 1.92 | 0.67 | | 中证 1000 | -5.50 | -11.39 | 0.61 | 2.21 | 2.34 | 1.34 | | ...

Economic Impact - The U.S. import tariffs are projected to increase from 2.5% in 2024 to 16.5%, the highest level since 1937, potentially raising $1.5 trillion in revenue from base tariffs and $1.3 trillion from punitive tariffs over the next decade[7] - The increase in tariffs is expected to reduce U.S. GDP by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, with a direct impact of nearly 2% on disposable income for American households in 2025[7] - Recent tariffs may lead to an overall inflation increase of 2.3% in the U.S., with food prices rising by 2.8% and automobile prices by 8.4%, costing the average American household approximately $3,800 annually[7] Market Reactions - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen by nearly 50 basis points recently, indicating a significant market reaction to economic data and commodity price fluctuations[11] - The U.S. dollar index has experienced a substantial decline, reflecting a "crisis of trust" in the dollar amidst rising Treasury yields[12] - The recent volatility in the financial markets has led to skepticism regarding the effectiveness of fundamental and technical analysis, with tariff negotiations becoming a primary focus for short-term investors[5] Inflation Data - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March increased by 2.4% year-on-year, the lowest level in seven months, slightly below the expected 2.5%[8] - The core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year, marking the lowest increase since March 2021, indicating a potential easing of inflationary pressures[8] Government Response - The U.S. Treasury is closely monitoring the rise in the 10-year Treasury yield, which is considered a key performance indicator (KPI) for the government[16] - The Trump administration may need to pursue a comprehensive trade agreement or rely on a significant economic downturn in non-U.S. economies to restore confidence if tariff policies remain unchanged[16]

Key Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year in March, with core CPI at 3.0%, which is significantly below expectations, indicating potential economic stagnation before the impact of tariffs is fully realized [2][3] - The report suggests that the large-scale tariff impacts may lead to a scenario of "short-term stagflation and long-term deflation," with expectations of the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates in the second half of the year [5][6] - The semiconductor industry in China is expected to benefit from domestic self-sufficiency initiatives due to U.S. tariff policies, with a focus on companies involved in domestic semiconductor manufacturing and RF and analog ICs [18][21] - The communication sector is identified as having significant growth potential in areas such as optical communication, quantum communication, and satellite communication, driven by the need for self-sufficiency in technology [23][24] - The textile and apparel industry is advised to focus on high-quality growth and international capacity layout, as smaller companies may struggle to absorb tariff costs, leading to market consolidation [26][29] Macro Insights - The report indicates that the macroeconomic environment is characterized by a potential liquidity crisis in the U.S. bond market, with expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later in the year [5][6] - The report notes that the market is currently reacting negatively to inflation data, with significant declines in U.S. stock indices and a weakening dollar [6][11] Sector-Specific Insights - In the semiconductor sector, the report emphasizes the importance of local production strategies in response to tariffs, which may lead to increased demand for domestic manufacturers like SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor [20][21] - The communication sector is highlighted for its potential to develop a robust domestic technology ecosystem, with a focus on companies that can navigate the current geopolitical landscape [23][24] - The textile and apparel sector is advised to leverage international production advantages and focus on high-value products to maintain margins amid tariff pressures [26][29] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the semiconductor industry that are aligned with self-sufficiency goals and have strong domestic production capabilities [21] - In the communication sector, it suggests investing in firms with clear technological advantages and market share growth potential [24] - For the textile and apparel industry, the report advises targeting leading companies with established overseas production capabilities to weather tariff impacts [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding the industry investment ratings is provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of black - related products are mainly influenced by tariff games, showing a generally weak - running trend. For different products, the market situations and investment strategies vary [4][34][60][108]. - For rebar, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading due to factors such as tariff impacts on exports and insufficient peak - season demand [4][5]. - For hot - rolled coils, the price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Short - term trading is recommended as the supply - demand relationship is in adjustment, affected by international games and domestic policies [34][35]. - For coking coal and coke, the coking coal price may be under pressure to oscillate, and the coke market shows a weak supply - demand balance. A neutral wait - and - see approach is recommended [60]. - For iron ore, considering the current situation and future expectations, it is expected to have a small rebound or maintain an oscillating trend in the near term, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is suggested [108]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see or short - term trading. The price is expected to oscillate weakly due to tariff games, low probability of large - scale domestic stimulus policies in the short term, and potential peak demand [4][5]. - **Market Review**: The spot price first decreased and then increased, with the Hangzhou third - grade rebar at 3170 yuan/ton last Friday, down 70 yuan/ton from before the holiday. The futures price opened lower and oscillated weakly, with the rebar 05 contract at 3050 yuan/ton, down 114 yuan/ton from before the holiday. The basis strengthened, with the rebar 05 contract basis at 120 yuan [15]. - **Steel Mill Profits**: The immediate profit of steel mills declined slightly. The long - process profit was about 120 yuan/ton in East China, and the short - process flat - electricity profit was about - 118 yuan/ton. The profitability of 247 sample steel mills was 53.68% (- 1.73%) [19]. - **Futures Valuation**: The rebar futures price dropped near the electric - furnace valley - electricity cost, higher than the long - process cost, with a static valuation at a moderately low level [21]. - **Supply - Demand Pattern**: Last week, the rebar production increased by 3.72 tons to 232.37 tons, the apparent demand increased by 2.99 tons to 252.68 tons, and the inventory decreased by 20.31 tons to 777.76 tons [29]. 3.2 Hot - Rolled Coils - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term trading. The price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation as the supply - demand relationship is in adjustment, affected by international games and domestic policies [34][35]. - **Valuation**: The spot price increased, with the Shanghai hot - rolled coil 4.75 at 3250 yuan/t last Friday, down 100 yuan/t from the previous week. The futures price oscillated strongly, with the hot - rolled coil 10 contract at 3242 yuan/t, down 118 yuan/t from the previous week. The basis strengthened by 18 yuan, with the hot - rolled coil 10 contract basis at 28 yuan. The cost decreased, and the profit remained stable, with the steel - union hot - rolled coil profit at about - 8 yuan/t (18 yuan/t), and the profitability of 247 sample steel mills at 53.68% (- 1.73%) [39][40]. - **Drivers**: The output of five major steel products increased, while the hot - rolled coil output decreased. The demand gradually weakened, with the steel - union hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreasing. The inventory showed continuous destocking, but there was still pressure on factory inventory accumulation [44][46][52]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Strategy**: Neutral wait - and - see. For coking coal, the short - term price may be under pressure to oscillate. For coke, the market shows a weak supply - demand balance, and it is difficult for price increases to be implemented in the short term [60]. - **Coking Coal**: The domestic coking coal spot price decreased, and the overseas price also showed a downward trend. The basis widened, and the production in major producing areas gradually recovered. The upstream inventory continued to be destocked. The total inventory was 2727.22 million tons (+ 12.80), with the mine inventory at 335.50 million tons (- 4.20), the downstream inventory at 1745.32 million tons (+ 24.18), and the 16 - port inventory at 646.40 million tons (- 7.18) [66][71][83]. - **Coke**: The spot price stabilized. The basis converged. The daily average pig - iron output increased significantly, and the overall inventory fluctuated little. The total inventory was 1052.59 million tons (+ 0.97), with the full - sample coking plant inventory at 107.30 tons (- 10.17), the downstream steel - mill inventory at 667.99 tons (- 4.88), and the 18 - port inventory at 277.30 million tons (+ 16.02) [87][90][102]. 3.4 Iron Ore - **Investment Strategy**: Short on rebounds. The price is expected to have a small rebound or maintain an oscillating trend in the near term, entering a stage of expected increased supply and decreased demand in the future [108]. - **Market Review**: The spot price decreased, with the Qingdao Port's various - grade iron ore discount - to - futures prices down. The futures price also decreased, with the iron ore 09 contract at 708 yuan/ton last Friday, down 35.5 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 5 - 9 spread widened [109][124]. - **Supply**: Domestically, the production increased, with the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises at 63.38%, up 0.61%, the daily average iron - concentrate output at 49.49 million tons, up 0.48, and the inventory at 109.43 million tons, up 2.5. Overseas, the Australian shipment decreased, with the total Australian and Brazilian iron - ore shipment at 2393.1 million tons, down 254.7 million tons week - on - week [130][136]. - **Port Situation**: The arrival volume decreased, the number of ships in port increased, and the dredging volume remained at a high level. The port inventory decreased, with the 45 - port iron - ore inventory at 14341.02 million tons, down 127.39 million tons week - on - week [141][142]. - **Steel - Mill Demand**: The pig - iron output has not reached its peak. The profitability of 247 steel enterprises was 53.25%, unchanged week - on - week. The daily average pig - iron output was 236.26 million tons, up 5.67 million tons week - on - week. The furnace - charge ratio was sinter ore 73.73%, pellet ore 14.16%, and lump ore 12.11% [151].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to construction, testing, or evaluation[1][2][3]