环球市场动态 预 计 常 规 流 动 性 工 具 将 维 持 净 投 放 股 票 周三中国市场继续上涨，大金融股 领涨大市，证券、保险纷纷得到政 策支持；欧股周三收跌，市场谨慎 观望以色列伊朗脆弱的停火协议状 况；美股在记录高位附近遭遇阻力， 但英伟达 (NVDA US) 仍创新高重 回市值第一，金龙中国指数下跌。 外 汇 / 商 品 特朗普淡化近期放松对伊朗制裁的 可能性，美国原油库存连续第五周 下降，周三国际油价反弹近 1%；投 资者权衡中东局势和鲍威尔暗示将 谨慎行动，国际金价微涨。 固 定 收 益 周三美国国债交投清淡，收益率曲 线趋陡，盘中在区间内波动。美联 储公布银行资本金规则修订草案。 5 年期美债拍卖中标利率略高于发 行前交易水平。亚洲债市交投活跃， 日本债市较坚挺；中国投资级债券 交投清淡，利差轻微走阔。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 6 月 26 日 123 个 股 要 闻 ▪ 6 月 24 日，央行发布中期借贷便利招标公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，6 月 25 日，中国人民银行将以 固定数 ...

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities expects that conventional liquidity tools such as MLF and reverse repos will maintain net injection of liquidity [1] Group 1: MLF and Reverse Repo - In June 2025, MLF is projected to maintain an excess rollover with a net injection of 118 billion yuan [1] - Both MLF and reverse repos achieved net liquidity injection, providing long-term liquidity supply [1] - There is a possibility of a decline in MLF bidding rates due to the downward trend in the central rate of time deposits [1] Group 2: Liquidity Outlook - The observation period for total tools indicates a sustained demand for ample liquidity [1] - It is anticipated that MLF and reverse repos will continue to maintain net liquidity injection under the current conditions [1]

作 者丨唐婧 编 辑丨包芳鸣 6月24日，中国人民银行发布2025年6月中期借贷便利招标公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充 裕，2025年6月25日，中国人民银行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展3000亿元 MLF操作，期限为1年期。鉴于6月有1820亿元1年期MLF到期，央行自3月起连续4个月超额 续作MLF。 2025年3月，中国人民银行发布公告，宣布自3月起调整中期借贷便利（MLF）操作方式，采 用固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标（美式招标）模式。此次调整后，MLF操作将不再设 定统一的中标利率，而是由参与机构根据自身资金需求以不同利率投标，并按投标利率从高 到低依次中标。至此，MLF利率作为中期政策利率的属性正式退出，其功能定位从"政策利率 工具"转变为"中期流动性管理工具"。 中信证券首席经济学家明明告诉记者，在存款利率下调等因素的影响下，近期商业银行负债 成本有所下行，1年期同业存单利率中枢从6月初1.7%附近下行至当前的1.64%附近。在多重 价位中标的市场化定价机制下，不排除MLF中标利率伴随存单利率进一步小幅下行的可能 性。 明明还称，5月降息降准落地后，总量型货币政策工具将在一段时间 ...

点击按钮▲ 预约直播 2025年，由蓝狮子与吴晓波频道联合打造的"百万粉丝博主年度书单"系列直播持 续聚焦各领域具有影响力的博主。我们邀请他们走进直播间，畅谈个人见解、推 荐精选书单，与观众共享阅读的乐趣与智慧启迪。 央行MLF操作连续4个月净投放 6月25日，央行开展3000亿MLF操作。本月有1820亿MLF到期，这意味着6月央行MLF净投放达到1180亿，为连续第四个月加量续作。自3月以 来，央行已连续4个月通过MLF实现净投放，叠加买断式逆回购操作，6月中期流动性净投放总额达3180亿元，持续为市场注入流动性。 从当前资金面来看，临近半年末，市场流动性整体表现平稳。 6月以来，DR007（银行间市场存款类机构7天期回购加权平均利率）走势平稳， 反映出市场资金供需相对均衡。中信证券首席经济学家明明测算，7月流动性缺口或达10000亿元，财政支出与政府债券发行缴款对资金面的压 力显著增加。（第一财经） ｜点评｜ 央行近几个月持续保持净投放，并打破常规提前向市场预告投放力度，充分展现了央行稳定市场预期的政策取向。去年 6月，银行业 开始逐步取消手工补息，部分银行存款流失，流动性承压，发行了大量1年期同业存单 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 365.3 billion yuan on June 25, resulting in a net injection of 209 billion yuan after accounting for 156.3 billion yuan maturing reverse repos [1] - The PBOC also conducted a 300 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, achieving a net injection of 118 billion yuan after offsetting 182 billion yuan of maturing MLF [1] - The PBOC has increased MLF operations for four consecutive months to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, especially as the end of the quarter approaches and market liquidity concerns rise [1] Group 2 - In June, the PBOC implemented two reverse repo operations, resulting in a total net injection of 200 billion yuan, while facing ongoing government bond issuance pressures [2] - The liquidity gap in July is expected to reach 1 trillion yuan due to tax payments and government bond issuance, indicating that PBOC's policy support will be crucial [2] - The PBOC is likely to continue flexible open market operations to counter disturbances while maintaining reasonable liquidity levels and guiding market expectations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, stated that the liquidity in the U.S. Treasury market is sufficient [1] Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury market is currently experiencing adequate liquidity, which is crucial for maintaining market stability [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the correlation between Hong Kong stocks and A-shares has significantly increased since 2020, while the correlation with US stocks has weakened [1][2][3] - Historically, Hong Kong stocks were more correlated with US stocks, particularly from 1970 to 2020, but since 2020, this correlation has diminished, especially in 2021 and 2023 [1] - The increase in correlation between Hong Kong and A-shares is attributed to a decrease in foreign capital's share in Hong Kong stocks and an increase in domestic liquidity [1][2] Group 2 - Hong Kong stocks have become less dependent on overseas liquidity since 2020, with valuation contributing more to price movements, aligning with the increased correlation with A-shares [2] - The decline in foreign capital's share is influenced by geopolitical factors, currency arbitrage, and changes in the price-performance ratio of Hong Kong stocks [2] - Domestic capital has accelerated its inflow into Hong Kong stocks due to price advantages and scarcity of investment targets, further linking Hong Kong's liquidity to mainland capital behavior [2] Group 3 - The fundamental performance of Hong Kong stocks is increasingly related to mainland China, with over two-thirds of listed companies being Chinese enterprises, contributing 90% of net profits [3] - The proportion of mainland enterprises listed in Hong Kong has risen since 2020, supported by policies aimed at developing Hong Kong's capital market [3] - The correlation between Hong Kong stocks and overseas markets has weakened, with less impact from changes in overseas demand and economic cycles since 2020 [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 300 billion MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a maturity of one year, as part of its strategy to ensure ample liquidity [1] - In June, the PBOC conducted significant reverse repo operations totaling 1.4 trillion yuan, indicating a proactive approach to manage liquidity ahead of maturing financial instruments [1][2] - The liquidity supply-demand imbalance is heightened during mid-year, with a notable increase in maturing certificates of deposit and government bond issuance pressures [2][4] Group 2 - The adjustment of MLF operations to a multi-price bidding system marks a shift in its role from a policy rate tool to a liquidity management tool, allowing for more market-driven pricing [3] - The decline in interbank deposit rates suggests potential for further decreases in MLF rates, influenced by the new bidding mechanism [3] - The PBOC is expected to continue utilizing various liquidity management tools, including reverse repos and MLF, to address liquidity needs and stabilize market expectations [5] Group 3 - The upcoming fiscal pressures in July, including tax payments and government bond issuance, are anticipated to create significant liquidity gaps, necessitating PBOC intervention [4][5] - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies to support economic stability and growth, with potential additional funding of 500 billion to 1 trillion yuan expected [6][7] - The focus on fiscal policy is expected to complement monetary policy efforts, with an emphasis on supporting consumption and effective investment [6][7]

Market Performance - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise over 1%, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.04%, reaching a new high for the year, and the ChiNext Index rising 3.11% [1] - The total market turnover was 1.64 trillion yuan, an increase of 191.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Reasons for the Rise - Market hotspots were concentrated in finance, military industry, and computer sectors, with more stocks rising than falling. The strong performance of the ChiNext 50 Index was attributed to geopolitical factors, policy support, liquidity recovery, and industry events [5] - Geopolitical developments, particularly the ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, reduced market risk aversion and led to a capital influx into high-risk assets, benefiting the technology sector and the ChiNext [6] - The Federal Reserve's recent statements indicated a potential for monetary easing, which may boost market risk appetite and attract foreign capital into emerging markets, particularly benefiting growth sectors like the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board [7] Policy and Market Support - Recent guidance from the central bank and six departments emphasized financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, aiming to stabilize economic fundamentals and enhance the flow of medium- to long-term capital into the market [8] - The implementation of monetary policy tools to maintain liquidity and reduce financing costs is expected to promote stable development in the capital market [8] Industry Performance - The brokerage and fintech sectors showed significant performance, with news about stablecoins and regulatory approvals potentially driving valuations higher for leading brokerages [9] - Companies like CATL are benefiting from the accelerated industrialization of solid-state batteries, which are expected to become mainstream in the high-end market by 2030, presenting valuation opportunities for related firms [9] Market Outlook - Short-term focus should be on event catalysts and mid-year earnings reports, with potential for continued strength in the ChiNext if earnings exceed expectations and geopolitical stability is maintained [9] - From a mid- to long-term perspective, sectors like AI, new energy, and pharmaceuticals show clear growth logic, with the ChiNext 50 Index currently trading at a PE-TTM of approximately 31 times, below its historical average, indicating potential for valuation recovery [10]

一、美国经济：预计油价不会导致核心通胀显著加速 美联储主席鲍威尔认为，油价冲击不会对通胀产生持久影响，这与我们美国经济团队在 2023 年 9 月（在供应驱动的油价上涨后）进行的定量 分析一致。我们团队的研究表明，油价上涨 10% 通常只会对核心价格产生温和推动 —— 三个月内仅上涨 5 个基点。他们的模型显示， headline 价格的反应更大 —— 冲击后三个月上涨 5 个基点 —— 因为大部分影响是通过 CPI 的能源成分传导的。重要的是，他们的模型假设油 价会持续上涨 —— 这意味着油价回落对通胀的影响甚至更小。 图表 1：供应驱动的油价冲击后，美国核心 CPI 通常几乎不变 5 月自由流动性有所改善，但仍为负值，原因是 M1（狭义货币供应量）强劲增长、PPI（生产者价格指数）通缩加剧以及工业增加值（IP）增 长稳定。 鉴于大摩预计 2025 年剩余时间通缩压力将持续，且政策立场偏被动应对，预计 2025 年自由流动性将保持负值。 图表 1：摩根士丹利中国自由流动性指标与 MSCI 中国同比百分比 ——5 月自由流动性改善，但仍处于负值区间 10% 石油供应冲击的累计 CPI 影响 二、中国自由流动性 ...