Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Treasury bond futures showed a pattern of rising and then falling after the National Day holiday, with the market expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [4][45][46]. - The official manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, still below the boom - bust line, with production expanding and demand slightly weak. The non - manufacturing business activity index decreased slightly, and different industries showed varying degrees of prosperity [10][27]. - During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, domestic tourism and consumption increased, while the year - on - year decline in commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in early October widened, and the agricultural product wholesale price was relatively low year - on - year [33][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bond Market - **Treasury Bond Futures Performance**: After the National Day holiday, Treasury bond futures rose on Thursday and fell on Friday. The 30 - year Treasury bond fell 0.03% for the week, the 10 - year rose 0.09%, the 5 - year was flat, and the 2 - year fell 0.02% [4]. - **Treasury Bond Yield Curve**: Compared with September 30, the 2 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields rose slightly on October 10, while the 10 - year yield decreased slightly, and the 5 - year yield remained unchanged [7]. Manufacturing PMI - **Overall PMI**: In September, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. Large enterprises continued to expand slightly, medium - sized enterprises remained stable, and the decline in small - enterprise sentiment narrowed [10]. - **Production and Demand**: The production index was 51.9%, indicating accelerated expansion. The new order index was 49.7%, showing improved demand. Some industries such as automobile manufacturing had rapid production and demand release, while others were below the critical point. The procurement volume index rose to 51.6% [13]. - **Price Index**: The raw material purchase price index was 53.2%, and the ex - factory price index was 48.2%. The former was in the expansion range for three consecutive months, while the latter declined, which may suppress corporate profits. It is expected that the year - on - year decline of PPI in September will narrow [16]. - **Export and Inventory**: The new export order index was 47.8%, and the import index was 48.1%, both showing an increase. The raw material and finished - product inventory indexes increased. The cumulative year - on - year growth of manufacturing profits from January to August was 7.4% [19][22]. - **Business Expectation**: The employment index and the production and business activity expectation index increased slightly, indicating that enterprises' expectations for future prosperity improved slightly [25]. Non - manufacturing Business Activity Index - **Overall Index**: In September, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, slightly lower than the previous value. The construction industry index was 49.3%, and the service industry index was 50.1% [27]. - **Construction Industry**: The new order index, employment index, and business activity expectation index all showed some changes, with the overall prosperity slightly rising but still weak [29]. - **Service Industry**: The new order index decreased, the employment index remained unchanged, and the business activity expectation index decreased slightly. The input price index and the sales price index both declined [31]. Other Economic Data - **Holiday Consumption**: During the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the number of domestic tourists and total tourism spending increased. The daily average sales revenue of national consumption - related industries increased by 4.5% year - on - year, with service consumption growing faster [33]. - **Commercial Housing Transactions**: The year - on - year decline in commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in early October widened, and it is expected that the decline in the fourth quarter may exceed that in the third quarter [36]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: In early October, the agricultural product wholesale price fluctuated narrowly, and it is expected that the year - on - year decline will narrow significantly in the next two months [39]. - **Funding Rate**: After the National Day holiday, the overnight funding rate fell to a low level. The central bank carried out a 1100 - billion - yuan repurchase operation to maintain market liquidity [43].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.10」 国债期货周报 债市底部震荡，多头动能偏弱 研究员 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号 F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证号 Z0020723 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 政策及监管：1、10月9日，商务部公布对境外相关稀土物项实施出口管制的决定指出，境外特定出口经营者在向中国以外的其他国家和 地区出口前，必须获得中国商务部颁发的两用物项出口许可证件；对向境外军事用户的出口申请以及向出口管制管控名单和关注名单所 列的进口商和最终用户的出口申请，原则上不予许可；2、国家发改委、市场监管总局发布《关于治理价格无序竞争 维护良好市场价格 秩序的公告》。针对部分产业出现的无序竞争现象，《公告》提出调研评估行业平均成本、加强价格监管、规范招标投标行为等多项措 施，释放维护公平竞争的明确信号。 基本面：1、国内:1）今年国庆中秋假期消费市场增势良好。国内出游总花费8090.06亿元，较2024年国庆节假日7天增加1081.89亿元。 全国消费相关行业日均销售收入同比增长4.5%。其中，商品消费和服务消费同比分别增长3.9%和7.6 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market started with a positive performance, with all treasury bond futures closing higher. However, bond market sentiment is fragile, and the recovery of risk appetite suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the increase in global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3] - In terms of strategies, for the unilateral aspect, the repurchase rate has declined, and treasury bond futures prices are oscillating; for the arbitrage aspect, attention should be paid to the decline of the basis of the 2512 contract; for the hedging aspect, there is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9] - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 433.66 trillion yuan, with an increase of 2.40 trillion yuan (0.56% month - on - month); M2 year - on - year was 8.80%, with a 0.00% month - on - month change; the manufacturing PMI was 49.80%, with a 0.40% (0.81% month - on - month) increase [9] - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 99.39, up 0.54 (0.55% day - on - day); the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1296, down 0.003 (- 0.04% day - on - day); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.50, up 0.09 (6.41% day - on - day); DR007 was 1.51, up 0.07 (4.85% day - on - day); R007 was 1.53, up 0.02 (1.49% day - on - day); the 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.58, up 0.05 (3.57% day - on - day); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, up 0.00 (3.57% day - on - day) [9] II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple figures are presented, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, the precipitation funds trend of various treasury bond futures varieties, the position ratio of various treasury bond futures varieties, the net position ratio of the top 20 in various treasury bond futures varieties, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in various treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the treasury bond issuance situation [13][16][19][22] III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Figures show the Shibor interest rate trend, the yield - to - maturity trend of interbank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the local government bond issuance situation [27] IV. Spread Overview - Figures display the inter - term spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures (4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 3*T - TL, 2*TS - 3*TF + T) [27][28][29] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures include the implied interest rate and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [31][34][41] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures show the implied interest rate and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [43][48] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures present the implied yield and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [50][54][51] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Figures include the implied yield and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [57][59][63]

Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.46%, the 10-year main contract up by 0.15%, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.07%, and the 2-year main contract gaining 0.02% [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 10-year China Development Bank bond "25国开15" yield down by 0.45 basis points to 1.9585%, the 10-year government bond "25附息国债11" yield down by 0.9 basis points to 1.7740%, the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债02" yield down by 0.8 basis points to 2.1220%, and the 7-year government bond "25附息国债07" yield down by 1.75 basis points to 1.70% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a fixed-rate, quantity tender operation of 612 billion yuan for a 7-day reverse repurchase agreement on October 9, with a bid amount of 612 billion yuan and a winning amount of 612 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 2,063.3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,451.3 billion yuan [2] - The central bank also conducted its first buyout reverse repurchase operation in October, with a fixed quantity and interest rate tender for 1,100 billion yuan for a 3-month term (91 days) [2] - The funding conditions in the interbank market were relatively loose after the long holiday, with overnight repurchase rates for deposit institutions dropping by about 6 basis points to around 1.32% [2] Operational Recommendations - The economic indicators for September showed signs of recovery during the peak season, but structural supply-demand contradictions remain, with slow domestic demand recovery being a constraint [3] - The current monetary policy focuses on execution, and if the third-quarter GDP is weaker than expected, there may be a possibility of policy easing [3] - The bond market is expected to be influenced by fund redemption fee regulations and changes in market risk appetite, with potential policy expectations driving stock market performance until mid-October [3] - The current loose funding conditions and the normalization of the long-short interest rate spread may limit the extent of long bond declines, with a potential increase in allocation value if the 10-year government bond yield rises above 1.8% [3] - Short-term treasury bonds are expected to continue fluctuating within a range, with T2512's fluctuation range likely between 107.4 and 108.3, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for adjustment opportunities [3]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on October 9, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering of 612 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the bid and awarded [1] - On the same day, 2,063.3 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1,451.3 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market showed a relatively loose funding condition on the first trading day after the holiday, with overnight repo rates for deposit-taking institutions dropping about 6 basis points to around 1.32% [3] - The overnight quotes for non-bank institutions borrowing against credit bonds also decreased but remained above 1.5%, not returning to the particularly loose liquidity levels seen previously [3] - The central bank's operation of over 1 trillion yuan in reverse repos alleviated the pressure from the large amount of reverse repos maturing [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was around 1.66%, down more than 1 basis point from the previous day [8] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed an increase, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.46%, the 10-year by 0.15%, the 5-year by 0.07%, and the 2-year by 0.02% [14] Group 5: Key News - The Ministry of Commerce announced export controls on specific rare earth items, requiring exporters to obtain licenses for exports to countries outside China, particularly for military users and certain semiconductor manufacturing applications [15] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced adjustments to the technical requirements for new energy vehicles eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemptions starting January 1, 2026 [15] - During the recent holiday, domestic travel reached 888 million person-times, an increase of 123 million compared to the previous year, with total spending of 809 billion yuan, up 108.2 billion yuan [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market sentiment is weak, with all treasury bond futures closing lower. The bond market is volatile between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month. The recovery of risk preference suppresses the bond market, and the expectation of the Fed's continued interest rate cuts and the increase in global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Catalogues I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 433.66 trillion yuan, with a monthly increase of 2.40 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.56%. M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, with no change. The manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a 0.10% increase and a growth rate of 0.20% [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 97.94, down 0.25 or 0.25%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1237, down 0.017 or 0.24%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.52, up 0.03 or 1.74%. DR007 is 1.59, up 0.03 or 2.04%. R007 is 1.51, down 0.05 or 3.26%. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, down 0.01 or 0.43%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a - 0.43% change [11]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant figures include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation funds trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures, the net position ratio of the top 20 in each variety of treasury bond futures, the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in each variety of treasury bond futures, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [15][16][18]. III. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - Relevant figures include the Shibor interest rate trend, the yield - to - maturity trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local government bonds [33][27]. IV. Spread Overview - Relevant figures include the inter - period spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [31][35][36]. V. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [48][42][51]. VI. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [53][58]. VII. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [60][65][62]. VIII. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [67][72][73]. Strategies - Unilateral strategy: The repurchase rate is volatile, and the price of treasury bond futures is also volatile. - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the basis of the 2512 contract. - Hedging strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, before the central bank's policy direction becomes clearer, the bond market is unlikely to see significant movements. However, with the injection of incremental funds from insurance, wealth management, and banks, interest rates may gradually approach previous lows, accompanied by some structural market trends. Therefore, pre - arranging for the to - be - allocated varieties of incremental funds is a dominant strategy. Good choices include ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds favored by the "cost - reduction" of insurance in July and sinking credit varieties with a maturity yield in the 2.0% - 2.2% range for betting on the growth of wealth management scale [5]. - In June and the second half of the year, aside from the uncertainty of tariffs, there are few foreseeable negative factors in June. The fundamental data is still mixed, and its indication of the interest rate direction is not strong. Even if long - term interest rates retreat, the amplitude may be relatively controllable. The smooth downward trend of long - term interest rates may occur after the cross - quarter period. High - cost - performance varieties such as ultra - long local bonds, long - term agricultural development bonds, and export - import bank bonds can be preferentially selected [41]. Summary by Directory Bond Market Performance Review - The change in the central bank's statement on reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the monetary policy draft this week dampened market expectations of easing. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year active Treasury bonds increased by 0.5 and 2.3 bps respectively, while the yield of 1 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 1.5 bps [2][11]. - In the interest - rate bond market, yields of bonds with a maturity of 5 years and below generally decreased by 3 - 4 bps, with the 1 - year Treasury bond yield breaking through the 1.40% resistance line to 1.36%. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds remained stable at 1.65% and 1.85% respectively. In the credit - bond market, the market continued the idea of spread mining, and long - term varieties became the focus. Yields of some credit - bond varieties decreased to different extents [14]. Bond Market Primary Issuance Situation - This week, 4223 billion yuan of local bonds were issued, and 508 billion yuan are scheduled to be issued from June 30 to July 4. As of June 27, 21635 billion yuan of new special bonds have been issued, an increase of 6542 billion yuan year - on - year, accounting for 49% of the 4.4 - trillion - yuan quota. 1110 billion yuan of Treasury bonds were issued this week, with a net issuance of 1110 billion yuan, including 710 billion yuan of special Treasury bonds. 1150 billion yuan of policy - financial bonds were issued this week, with a net issuance of 109 billion yuan [19]. Funds Market Situation - During the cross - quarter period, the upward pressure on funds was relatively controllable. Despite tax - period disturbances, the overnight funds remained stable, while the 7 - day interest rates rose significantly. The R007 and DR007 increased by 24 bp and 13 bp respectively compared with the previous week. The overnight and 1 - week Shibor rates closed at 1.37% and 1.67% respectively, with changes of +0.3 and +13.9 bps compared with last week. The overnight and 1 - week CNH Hibor rates closed at 2.02% and 2.06% respectively, with changes of +37.7 and +19.8 bps compared with last week [23][25]. - In the context of the tightening of the end - of - quarter funds, the overall trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased, and the weighted issuance period of inter - bank certificates of deposit was compressed [28]. China's Bond Market Macro - environment Tracking and Outlook - In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from May. The performance of major industries remained strong, with improvements in both supply and demand. The production index rose 0.3 percentage points to 51%, and the new order index was 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [31]. - From January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 27204.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%, and the profit growth rate slowed down compared with January - April. Although new - energy industries contributed significantly to profit growth, industrial product prices remained low, and there was still a large space for increasing effective demand [33]. - The US dollar index has been below 100 in the past week, and the offshore RMB has continued to appreciate. The central bank may maintain a loose tone in the second half of the year. This week, the central bank's net open - market injection was 12672 billion yuan, the second - highest single - week net injection this year [38]. China's Bond Market Weekly Summary and Outlook - The economic data in May was mixed. The GDP under the production method remained high, while the terminal demand under the expenditure method was differentiated. The annual 5% real growth target is likely to be achieved. In the future, policies may focus on structural short - board compensation and improving nominal growth [42]. - Monetary policy will continue to be loose to cooperate with fiscal bond issuance, and the liquidity is likely to remain loose. In June and the second half of the year, high - cost - performance bond varieties can be preferentially selected [40][41].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Standing at the end of September and looking forward to October, investors' judgments on the bond market in the next stage are quite divided. There is a consensus on maintaining a preference for medium - short - term and long - term interest - rate bonds, and the proportion of bullish sentiment has increased. The funding situation, the equity market, and institutional behavior have become the core concerns of investors, and their preference for convertible bonds and low - grade urban investment bonds has marginally weakened [1]. - According to the bond market survey questionnaire results released at the end of September, there are four mainstream expectations for the bond market in October: 1) The expected range of the upper and lower limits of long - term treasury bond yields is relatively concentrated, and long - term treasury bond yields still show a state of "capped on the upper end and floored on the lower end"; 2) The bullish sentiment in the bond market has slightly increased, and the proportion of those who think it's time to increase positions has significantly risen, while expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are divided; 3) Investors' overall expectations for the economy in September have changed. Monetary policy, the funding situation, and the performance of the equity market are the core issues that investors focus on, and the game of institutional behavior has returned to the focus of investors; 4) Looking forward to October, investors unanimously expect to maintain their positions in medium - short - term interest - rate bonds and increase their preference for long - term interest - rate bonds, while their preference for convertible bonds has declined [2][10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Investor Bullish Sentiment Rises - A bond market survey questionnaire "What to Expect from the Bond Market in October?" was released on September 25, 2025. By 00:00 on September 28, 204 valid questionnaires were received, covering various institutional investors and individual investors such as bank self - operations, securities firm self - operations, and public funds/special accounts [9]. 3.2 Expectations for Treasury Bond Yields 10 - year Treasury Bond Yields - Regarding the lower limit, 44% of investors think it will likely fall in the range of 1.70% - 1.75% (inclusive), 30% think it will be in the range of 1.75% - 1.80% (inclusive), 14% think it will fall below 1.70%, and about 12% think it will exceed 1.80%. Regarding the upper limit, 49% of investors think it will likely fall in the range of 1.85% - 1.90% (inclusive), about 29% think it will be below 1.85%, and 11% each think it will be in the range of 1.90% - 1.95% (inclusive) and above 1.95%. Current investors' expectations for the rise of 10 - year treasury bond interest rates have gradually increased compared with the August survey results, but they remain cautious about the judgment of breaking through key points [11]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Yields - Regarding the lower limit, 34% of investors each think it will fall in the ranges of 1.95% - 2.00% (inclusive) and 2.00% - 2.05% (inclusive), about 19% think it will be above 2.05%, and only 13% think it will be below 1.95%. Regarding the upper limit, about 35% of investors think it will fall in the range of 2.10% - 2.15% (inclusive), 33% think it will be in the range of 2.15% - 2.20% (inclusive), and about 19% think it will break through 2.20%. Since September, the 30 - year treasury bond yield has continued to rise, and investors are quite cautious about the expectation that it may further increase [13]. 3.3 Expectations for the Economic Situation in September - 54% of investors think the economy in September will show a situation of "both supply and demand weakening", 29% think it will be "demand weakening, supply strengthening", 9% think it will be "both supply and demand strengthening", and 8% think it will be "demand strengthening, supply weakening". In September, 83% of investors think the demand side has generally weakened, and only 38% expect the supply side to strengthen, indicating that the market is relatively cautious about the expectation of supply expansion [14][17]. 3.4 Expectations for Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts - Regarding reserve requirement ratio cuts, 36% of investors think there will be no more cuts this year, 27% think the next cut may occur in October, 23% think it will be in November, and 15% think it will be in December. Regarding interest rate cuts, 53% of investors think there will be no more cuts this year, 19% think the next cut may occur in October, 13% think it will be in November, and 15% think it will be in December. Compared with the August survey results, investors' expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts have slightly increased, while their expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly decreased [18]. 3.5 Impact of the Fed's 25bp Interest Rate Cut on the Domestic Bond Market - 64% of investors think the Fed's 25bp interest rate cut has limited impact on the domestic bond market, and the domestic fiscal and supply rhythm still need to be considered. 13% think it is beneficial for the repair of the Sino - US interest rate spread and can ease the pressure on RMB depreciation. 12% think the interest rate cut signal strengthens the downward movement of the global interest rate center, which is beneficial for the long - duration trend in the domestic market. Another 12% think the external disturbance is difficult to determine. Most investors think the interest rate cut is not a significant surprise, and its impact on the domestic bond market is relatively limited [22]. 3.6 Expectations for the Bond Market in October - 32% of investors think the bond market in October will strengthen overall, among which 20% expect the yield curve to be bull - flattened (a slight decrease compared with the August survey results), and 12% expect the yield curve to be bull - steepened. 29% of investors think the bond market will be weak. 20% of investors think the bond market may show a differentiation between the short - end and long - end, favoring a strong short - end and a weak long - end, and 6% think the short - end will be weak and the long - end will be strong. Investors' expectations for the bond market are divided, and there is no obvious trend [24]. 3.7 Bond Market Operation Suggestions - 31% of investors think they should hold cash and wait for the market to correct to the expected level before increasing positions. 29% of investors think it's time to start increasing positions. 16% of investors think they should reduce the duration to control risks. 10% of investors think they should appropriately reduce positions, and about 15% of investors think they should keep their positions basically stable. Most investors' actual operations in October are relatively neutral, and the proportion of those who think it's time to start increasing positions has significantly increased [27]. 3.8 Preferred Bond Types in October - Compared with the August survey results, investors' preference for long - term interest - rate bonds, medium - short - term interest - rate bonds, and high - grade urban investment bonds has increased, while their preference for convertible bonds and low - grade urban investment bonds has significantly decreased. Looking forward to October, investors unanimously expect to maintain their positions in medium - short - term interest - rate bonds and increase their preference for long - term interest - rate bonds. Their preference for local government bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and secondary capital bonds has slightly decreased [29]. 3.9 Main Logic of Bond Market Pricing in October - Monetary policy, the funding situation, and the performance of the equity market have become the core concerns of bond investors. Investors' attention to the game of institutional behavior has significantly increased. Their attention to fundamental data such as real estate and PMI remains basically the same, and their attention to the disturbance of US tariff policies has significantly decreased [32].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market's expectation of the capital market is marginally cautious based on certificates of deposit (CDs) and interest rate swaps [1]. - The central bank's continuous "incremental renewal" of MLF for seven months indicates its care for the capital market, and it is expected that the cross - quarter liquidity will be generally stable, with the capital market likely to ease after the holiday [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs CDs and Interest Rate Swaps - Last week, the total maturity of CDs was 969.21 billion yuan, and the issuance was 791.87 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of - 177.34 billion yuan. As of the last trading day of last week, the 1 - year AAA CD maturity yield was 1.69%, up from the previous week. This week, the single - week maturity scale of CDs is about 168.84 billion yuan, with less maturity pressure than the previous week [1]. - In terms of interest rate swaps, the average value of the 1 - year FR007 interest rate swap last week was 1.57%, up from the previous week [1]. Repurchase Market - Last week, the pledged repurchase trading volume was between 6.7 trillion and 7.6 trillion yuan. The average R001 repurchase trading volume was 5.5536 trillion yuan, down 724.7 billion yuan from the previous week. As of the last trading day of last week, the outstanding repurchase balance was 12.2 trillion yuan, up from the previous week [2]. - By institution, the lending scale of large banks decreased, while that of money market funds increased. The borrowing scales of securities firms and funds decreased, while that of wealth management increased. As of Friday, the reverse repurchase balances of large banks and money market funds were 4.28 trillion yuan and 2.48 trillion yuan, down 110.3 billion yuan and up 145 billion yuan respectively from the previous week. The repurchase balances of securities firms, funds, and wealth management were 1.76 trillion yuan, 1.97 trillion yuan, and 867.5 billion yuan, down 30.7 billion yuan, 54.2 billion yuan, and up 122.8 billion yuan respectively from the previous week [2]. Bill and Exchange Rate - Last Friday, the 6M national stock bill transfer quotation was 0.85%, down from the last trading day of the previous week. The decline in bill interest rates indicates a decrease in credit demand and an increase in the demand for bill volume - boosting [3]. - Last Friday, the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.13, up from the previous week, and the Sino - US interest rate spread widened. Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US dropped to the lowest level since July. The US also announced the PCE price index for August, showing that the increase in personal consumption expenditure in August exceeded expectations, and the basic inflation pressure remained stable [3]. Capital Market and Policy - Last week, the open market had a maturity of 2.1268 trillion yuan, including 1.8268 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase maturity and 300 billion yuan of MLF maturity. The open market made a total investment of 3.0674 trillion yuan, including 1.5674 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase, 900 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase, and 600 billion yuan of MLF, with a net investment of 940.6 billion yuan [6]. - Last week, the capital market was generally tight. The average DR007 was 1.54%, up 2BP from the previous week; the average R007 was 1.62%, up 10BP from the previous week; the average DR001 and R001 were 1.41% and 1.46% respectively. The exchange repurchase interest rate increased, with the average GC007 at 1.82%, up 29BP from the previous week. As of the last trading day of last week, the outstanding balance of reverse repurchase was 2.4674 trillion yuan, up from the previous week [6]. This Week's Focus - This week, the open - market capital maturity is 516.6 billion yuan, all of which are reverse repurchase maturities [4]. - On Monday, the eurozone's economic sentiment index for September will be announced; on Tuesday, China's official manufacturing PMI for September will be announced; on Wednesday, the eurozone's harmonized CPI for September will be announced; on Friday, the US non - farm payroll data for September will be announced. There may also be a Politburo meeting this week [4].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 288.6 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 48.1 billion yuan after 240.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured on the same day [1] - In the previous week, the PBOC's net injection in the open market was 640.6 billion yuan, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan through Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [1] - The liquidity situation shifted from loose to tight, with overnight funding rates rising from 1.46% to 1.52% and 7-day funding rates increasing significantly from 1.52% to 1.80% [1] Group 2 - The upcoming week will see a decrease in the scale of reverse repos maturing to 516.6 billion yuan, while government bond net payments will rise to 192.7 billion yuan, primarily concentrated on Monday [2] - Despite the approaching quarter-end, the current pace of institutions in crossing the quarter is relatively fast, and the limited scale of government bond payments and reverse repos maturing is expected to result in stable liquidity [2] - The liquidity is likely to return to a loose state after the "Double Festival" holiday, supported by high fiscal spending levels at the end of the month [2] Group 3 - The PBOC's monetary policy committee meeting indicated a shift from "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" to "implementing detailed moderately loose monetary policy," emphasizing the execution of monetary policy measures [3] - The focus remains on implementing existing policies without mentioning rate cuts, indicating a continued emphasis on supporting consumption and small and micro enterprises [3] - The monetary policy attitude is still "moderately loose," with expectations for potential fiscal stimulus in the fourth quarter due to weak demand [3] Group 4 - Guotai Junan Securities anticipates that the PBOC will enhance liquidity in the interbank market through measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or increasing the volume of monetary policy tools [4] - Following the capital increase of four major state-owned banks, other types of banks are also expected to prioritize capital replenishment [4]