Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's focus has returned to the weak US dollar expectation and supply disruptions, causing base metals to rise rapidly. In the short - to - medium term, with the return of the weak US dollar expectation and supply disruption concerns, and the breakdown of the US dollar index, base metals are rising rapidly. Long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so their prices are expected to rise [1]. - The prices of copper, aluminum, tin, nickel, and other metals are expected to show different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong; alumina prices are likely to fluctuate; aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile and strong in the short - term and the price center may rise in the long - term [1][7][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 Copper - **Viewpoint**: The US dollar index has declined significantly, and copper prices are trending strongly. In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1553 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.68%. On January 29, 2026, the spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of - 175 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 75 yuan/ton. The copper social inventory was 335,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,500 tons. The 25% copper concentrate spot TC was - 50.2 US dollars/dry ton, with no month - on - month change. The US Southern Copper Corporation expects its copper production to decline to 91,140 tons in 2026. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the recent weakening of the US dollar index has boosted the prices of commodities with strong monetary attributes. In terms of supply and demand, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the decline of copper concentrate spot TC continues. The 2026 copper mine long - term processing fee has reached a record low, strengthening the expectation of a contraction in refined copper supply. Although the terminal demand is weak and the inventory is high, the long - term supply - demand situation is expected to be optimistic. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong [7]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of production cuts is competing with the reality of oversupply, causing alumina prices to fluctuate. On January 29, 2026, the national weighted average price of alumina spot was 2,610.4 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the alumina warehouse receipts were 161,521 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,402 tons. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the macro - sentiment has amplified the market fluctuations. Fundamentally, the average spot price has dropped significantly compared to the end of last year. Inland high - cost production capacity is facing losses, increasing the expectation of supply contraction. However, the supply contraction is still insufficient, and the domestic market maintains a strong inventory accumulation trend. The prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda are also weak, weakening the support for alumina prices. - **Outlook**: Volatile [7]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The capital sentiment is optimistic, and aluminum prices continue to trend strongly. On January 29, 2026, the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 24,822 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 578 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 195 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum ingot inventory was 800,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons, and the aluminum bar inventory was 253,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 142,705 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 124 tons. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the statement of the interest - rate cut meeting was neutral, and China's new infrastructure and new energy policies continued to be implemented, with the expectation of continued loose liquidity. On the supply side, the domestic operating capacity and operating rate are at a high level, and there is a risk of power shortage overseas, and the progress of new project commissioning needs further observation. On the demand side, the high aluminum prices have suppressed demand to some extent, and the weekly inventory has accumulated. In general, in the short - term, the positive macro - expectation and the tight supply - demand expectation are expected to keep aluminum prices volatile and strong. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile and strong. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to be tight, and demand will maintain a resilient growth, and the aluminum price center is expected to rise [8][9][10]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: The market follows the price of aluminum ingots and has increased. - **Main Logic**: On the cost side, the tight supply of scrap aluminum is difficult to change in the short - term, providing strong cost support. On the supply side, the weekly operating rate has increased month - on - month, but the tax refund policy and tax burden transfer may still restrict supply in the medium - term. On the demand side, in the short - term, purchases are mainly for刚需 at high prices, and in the medium - term, the automobile trade - in policy will support the improvement of domestic demand. The weekly social inventory has accumulated. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, prices are expected to be volatile and strong. In the medium - term, the cost - support logic will be strengthened, and the supply - demand will remain in a tight balance, with prices expected to be volatile and strong [11]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The rise in overseas natural gas prices has led to a volatile upward trend in zinc prices. On January 29, 2026, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was 55 yuan/ton, Guangdong 0 zinc was 30 yuan/ton, and Tianjin 0 zinc was - 10 yuan/ton. As of January 29, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions was 107,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons. - **Main Logic**: Although the recently announced US economic data is positive, the expectation of a weak US dollar still exists. On the supply side, the decline rate of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, but the short - term supply of zinc ore is still tight, and smelter profits have declined. In the short - term, the previously locked - price zinc ingots will continue to be imported, and the supply pressure is not significant. On the demand side, domestic consumption has entered the off - season, and the demand expectation is average. In the short - term, zinc ingot exports will continue, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory has room to decline, so zinc prices may continue to be volatile at a high level. In the long - term, zinc ingot supply is expected to increase, while demand growth is limited, and zinc prices may decline. - **Outlook**: In January, zinc ingot production has increased month - on - month, and downstream demand has entered the off - season. However, short - term domestic zinc ingot exports will continue, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory is difficult to accumulate significantly. Considering the overall strength of the non - ferrous metal sector, zinc prices are expected to be volatile [12][13]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The social inventory of lead has accumulated, but the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector is positive, causing lead prices to rise in a volatile manner. On January 29, 2026, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,050 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price difference between primary and secondary lead was 125 yuan/ton (unchanged). The price of 1 lead ingots was 16,750 - 16,850 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the spot premium of Henan lead ingots was - 200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The domestic main market lead ingot social inventory was 38,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,500 tons; the latest Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 29,418 tons (unchanged). - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, the spot premium has slightly decreased, and the price difference between primary and secondary lead and the futures warehouse receipts have remained stable. On the supply side, the price of waste batteries has remained stable, and the profit of secondary lead smelting has remained stable. The previously shut - down secondary lead smelters in Anhui have resumed production, and the weekly lead ingot output has increased slightly. On the demand side, the orders for electric bicycles have weakened slightly, and the orders for automobile batteries have improved. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has declined from the previous high but is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years. - **Outlook**: As primary and secondary lead smelters resume production, lead ingot output remains high. The demand for lead ingots has weakened marginally, and the lead ingot import window has opened. However, the cost of waste batteries remains high, so lead prices are expected to be volatile [15]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The expected policy is competing with the weak reality, causing the nickel price to rise in the market. On January 29, 2026, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 46,854 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,032 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 286,470 tons, a month - on - month increase of 132 tons. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,045 - 1,075 yuan/nickel (delivered to the factory, including tax), with no month - on - month change. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the domestic electrolytic nickel output increased again month - on - month in December 2025, and the overall output of MIHP, ferronickel, and nickel matte in Indonesia remained at a high level in December, so the overall supply pressure of nickel still exists. On the demand side, it has entered the traditional consumption off - season. Although the stainless - steel production schedule has increased month - on - month due to profit repair, the electroplating and alloy sectors are expected to decline, and the overall fundamentals remain in surplus. In terms of policy, Indonesia plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method of nickel ore and lower the nickel ore quota for 2026, which has significantly adjusted the market's expectations for next year's nickel cost and balance. - **Outlook**: The current fundamentals of nickel have not improved significantly. It is expected that the supply - demand will remain loose in January, and the high LME inventory will suppress prices. However, due to the potential policy changes in Indonesia, nickel prices are expected to be volatile and strong [16]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The firm price of nickel iron has led to an upward trend in the stainless - steel market. On January 29, 2026, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 43,519 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,925 tons. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 stainless steel was at a discount of - 185 yuan/ton to the main stainless - steel contract. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,045 - 1,075 yuan/nickel (delivered to the factory, including tax), with no month - on - month change. - **Main Logic**: The price of nickel iron has recovered month - on - month, and the chromium price has remained stable, providing some support to the stainless - steel cost. The stainless - steel output decreased month - on - month in December 2025, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly due to profit repair, but the terminal demand remains cautious. Currently, the social inventory has not shown obvious accumulation, but there may be some inventory pressure during the off - season, and the warehouse receipts remain at a low level. - **Outlook**: The production schedule in January may increase slightly due to profit repair, but the downstream demand is expected to be weak in the traditional off - season, which will suppress prices. However, considering the long - term suppression of industrial chain profits and the support from the mine end, stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile and strong [17][19]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply shortage continues, and tin prices are trending strongly. On January 29, 2026, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 25 tons month - on - month to 7,060 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 163 tons month - on - month to 8,494 tons; the Shanghai tin open interest decreased by 3,821 lots month - on - month to 106,892 lots. The average spot price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 1 tin ingots was 438,700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: The tin supply problem is the key factor affecting prices. The explosive approval issue in Wa State is expected to be resolved soon, which may ease the local supply shortage. Indonesia's tin production quota this year may be set at 60,000 tons, but short - term supply will still be restricted due to the RKAB approval. The landslide in the Walikale area of North Kivu Province in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has increased supply concerns. In the future, the mine supply will continue to tighten, and the refined tin output will be difficult to increase. The recent increase in tin concentrate processing fees reflects the increasing financial pressure on some smelters. On the demand side, the US and Europe are in an interest - rate cut cycle, and the expansion of the fiscal side is expected to have a positive effect on the global economy. The semiconductor industry maintains high growth, and the consumption in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle sectors continues to rise. Considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, the demand for tin ingots will continue to grow. - **Outlook**: With high supply risks, tin prices are expected to be volatile and strong [20]. 2.行情监测 Copper No specific monitoring content provided. Alumina No specific monitoring content provided. Aluminum No specific monitoring content provided. Aluminum Alloy No specific monitoring content provided. Zinc No specific monitoring content provided. Lead No specific monitoring content provided. Nickel No specific monitoring content provided. Stainless Steel No specific monitoring content provided. Tin No specific monitoring content provided. 3.中信期货商品指数 (January 29, 2026) - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index was 2,995.74, an increase of 2.61%; the industrial products index was 2,422.72, an increase of 1.88%; the PPI commodity index was 1,509.62, an increase of 2.38%. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on January 29, 2026 was 2,977.78, with a daily increase of 3.02%, a 5 - day increase of 5.29%, a 1 - month increase of 11.30%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.86% [146][147].

记者｜金珊 吴斌 见习记者林芊蔚 微软股价跌逾10%，创2020年以来最大盘中跌幅。财报显示其资本支出创历史新高引发市场担忧。 | 脸书(META PLATF | 727.020 | 8.72% | | --- | --- | --- | | META.O | | | | 苹果(APPLE) | 256.960 | 0.20% | | AAPL.O | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 191.800 | 0.15% | | NVDA.O | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)· | 334.555 | -0.43% | | GOOGL.O | | | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 429.185 | -0.53% | | TSLA.O | | | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 240.665 | -0.96% | | AMZN.O | | | | 微软(MICROSOFT | 432.385 | -10.22% | | MSFT.O | | | IBM涨超7%，其2025Q4财报显示，营收196.9亿美元，同比增长12%；软件收入90.3亿美元，同比增长 14%。 甲骨文股价跌超5%，创2025年 ...

北京时间1月29日晚，美股周四早盘走低，微软重挫逾11%，令股指承压。交易员正在消化Meta与微软 等科技股财报，以及美联储昨日公布的最新利率决议。苹果将在周四收盘后公布业绩。 道指跌69.09点，跌幅为0.14%，报48946.51点；纳指跌331.41点，跌幅为1.39%，报23526.04点；标普 500指数跌40.49点，跌幅为0.58%，报6937.54点。 Facebook的母公司Meta Platforms公布强于预期的第一季度销售预测后，股价大幅上涨。作为最早披露 业绩的AI巨头之一，Meta Platforms表示，今年资本开支最高可达1350亿美元，显著高于市场约1100亿 美元的预期。 同为科技股"七巨头"成员的特斯拉股价也有所上涨，此前该公司公布的第四季度业绩超出预期。 但大盘涨幅受到微软股价下跌的抑制。这家科技巨头报告称，在第二财季，其云业务增长放缓。该公司 还对财年第三季度的运营利润率给出了疲软的指引。 投资者现在将注意力转向苹果，该公司定于周四收盘后公布财报。 摩根大通分析师指出："从META和微软目前释放的信息看，一个共同主题是资本开支高于预期，表明 AI支出仍在加速上行。"他 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve decided to pause interest rate cuts, with a significant internal division reflected in the 10:2 vote, where two members advocated for a 25 basis point cut [2] - The Fed expressed a more optimistic view on the U.S. economy and employment, although the labor market is facing challenges with stagnant supply growth and a slight decline in demand [2] - Inflation is not seen as a major concern, with expectations that it will rise initially and then decline, largely influenced by tariffs peaking in 2026 [2] Group 2: Future Projections and Challenges - The Fed's forward guidance has become less clear, with no specific timeline provided for future rate cuts, indicating that decisions will depend on incoming data [2] - The upcoming change in Fed leadership may pose challenges to its independence, with potential candidates including Rick Reed, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller, and the possibility of multiple rate cuts in the near future [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to experience high volatility before ultimately trending down, with a mid-year low projected around 3.8% [4] Group 3: Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices are expected to be driven by industrial demand, with a strong correlation to global industrial cycles, particularly in emerging sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [9] - The financial attributes of silver can amplify price volatility, influenced by speculative trading and the dynamics of silver ETFs [9] - A long-term bullish outlook for silver is supported by robust industrial demand, although caution is advised regarding potential short-term price corrections [10]

宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.29 美联储如期按兵不动 [Table_Authors] 汪浩(分析师) ——2026 年 1 月美联储议息会议点评 本报告导读： 2026 年 1 月 FOMC 会议按兵不动基本符合市场预期，美联储对经济、就业和通胀 都表现出了更乐观的态度，这为重启降息增加了很大的不确定性，鲍威尔模糊化前 瞻性指引。我们认为美联储主席换届与美联储独立性遭破坏将对货币政策产生较大 扰动，但具有短期性特征。预计美债利率短期高位震荡后先下后上，美股短期震荡 后仍有支撑。 投资要点： | | 0755-23976659 | | --- | --- | | | wanghao8@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880521120002 | | | 梁中华(分析师) | | | 021-23219820 | | | liangzhonghua@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040019 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 白银牛市：价格破 100 怎么看 2026.01.28 有待稳固的"V 型"反弹 2026.01.27 总量稳健，结 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that international gold futures and spot prices reached a new high on the 29th, breaking through $5,500 per ounce, which has led to a collective increase of over 5% in gold-related ETFs [1][2] Group 2 - The price movements of various gold ETFs are as follows: - Commercial Gold ETF Xiweng T+0 increased by 5.21% to $11.981 - Shangyibu Aoshang Super T+0 rose by 5.18% to $12.369 - Commercial Gold ETF Nanfang T+0 went up by 5.17% to $12.377 - Commercial Gold ETF Huaxia T+0 increased by 5.21% to $11.958 - Commercial Gold ETF T+0 rose by 5.14% to $11.860 - Commercial Gold ETF T+0 increased by 5.15% to $12.403 - O+L Zhi Jing Aofu JJ9 @ rose by 5.12% to $11.816 - Commercial Gold ETF Industrial Bank T+0 increased by 5.07% to $11.870 - Commercial Shanghai Gold ETF Jianxin T+0 rose by 5.05% to $11.881 [2] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the strong negative correlation between gold prices and the US dollar is the main driving force behind the current market trend, with expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical conflict risks intertwining, prompting major institutions to significantly raise their gold price targets [2]

风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数涵盖有色金属矿采选及相关加工企业， 成分股主要来自铝、铜、铅锌等基本金属及稀有金属行业，以反映有色金属矿业相关上市公司证券的整 体表现和市场趋势。 华创证券指出，降息预期和美联储独立性危机强化、地缘冲突下避险升温以及美债或遭抛售等因素，持 续催化贵金属行情。央行购金需求持续对金价形成强支撑，中国央行已连续14个月增持黄金。白银方 面，工业属性和金融属性共振，其价格更具弹性。对于工业金属，该机构持续看好电解铝的红利属性， 预计其行业平均利润维持高位，且由于未来资本开支强度较低，上市公司普遍具备提高回馈股东的能力 和意愿，红利资产属性逐步凸显。虽然铝短期进入消费淡季，但长期基本面和宏观叙事大逻辑暂未改 ...

与此同时，市场对2025–2026年降息周期的强烈预期（联邦基金利率期货显示2025年降息概率超70%） 形成"加息终点临近"的定价共识，实际利率（10年期TIPS收益率1.8%）与名义利率倒挂进一步强化黄 金配置价值，历史数据显示近三次加息周期结束后6个月内黄金平均涨幅达15%；全球地缘冲突持续、 美债规模突破37万亿美元、IMF预警2024年全球GDP增速降至2.7%，促使资金撤离风险资产，黄金ETF 持仓量逆势增长23%至2021年以来最高水平，凸显其"终极避险资产"属性。 COMEX黄金未平仓合约于2024年4月突破60万手，算法交易与CTA基金基于波动率突破策略形成"加息 →美元走弱预期→金价上涨→更多买盘"的正反馈循环，黄金与实际利率的脱敏现象反映市场对通胀韧 性的深度定价。 更关键的是，全球央行连续15年净购金（2022–2024年累计增持3177吨），新兴市场占比超70%，中国 央行2024年增持42吨使黄金储备占比升至4.3%，推动人民币国际化进程，黄金在全球储备中占比升至 28.9%，美元占比跌破60%，标志着黄金正从避险工具演变为全球货币体系重构中的战略锚定资产，其 上涨本质是美元信用裂 ...

黄金方面： 隔夜黄金继续高歌猛进，成功站上5400美元，年度最大涨幅超过27%，牛市上不言顶。 美联储结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间，符合市场普遍预期。利率决议声明显示，美国经济一直在稳 步扩张，失业率显示出了一些企稳的迹象，而通胀率依旧略为高企，也就是说当下限制美联储降息的还是通胀。 百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，降息是长期趋势，本次停止降息并不能改变市场预期，美元已经给出答案，在长期降息预期下，黄金等贵金属也 将持续受益。 原油方面： 隔夜国际油价继续小幅上行，价格创下2025年9月底以来的新高，美国原油库存下降也对油价形成一定的支撑。 美国至1月23日当周EIA原油库存大幅下降229.5万桶，前值为上升360.2万桶，预期为上升184.8万桶，暂时遏制了库存上升的势头。汽油库存小幅上升22.3万 桶，远低于前值和预期值，表明美国原油消费能力有所回暖，利于改善原油消费预期。 EIA能源报告显示，预计2026年油价将会下降，因为全球原油产量将超过全球原油需求，导致原油库存增加，全球库存到2027年仍将持续增加，但增速会放 缓。未来两年全球能源市场 ...

降息预期没了，美股怎么走？今天凌晨，美联储最新的货币会议决策出来了，宣布将联邦利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75之间，这符合市场的预期，就是维 持原来的利率，1月份不降息。 这次议息会议中，有两位理事投了反对票，分别是米兰和沃勒，这两大理事更倾向于降息25个基点。 不过之所以维持不降息，是因为政策制定者表示当前的就业增长保持低位，失业率显现出了一些企稳的迹象，关键是删除了此前关于就业下行风险增加的表 述，现在美股的投资者有一个认识，那就是6月份之前不太可能降息了。 不过从黄金的走势图看，出现了明显的非理性特征，黄金上了5400美元就很难再说是机会了，我觉得恰恰是短期的风险敞口在提高，从我自身的角度而言， 已经在考虑是不是得减仓黄金了？ 但斌总，持仓迎来新变化！但斌总去年四季度的持仓曝光了，第一大重仓股出现变化，之前是英伟达，如今变成了谷歌，当然了英伟达仍然是第二大重仓 股，从最新的持仓中可以看出的是，但总重视的是AI上下游产业链，从基础的算力到应用。 不过总体上依然还是对美股大型科技股看好，这个态度没有改变，但是从我自身的角度而言，我觉得美股未来进一步向上拓展空间很难了，特别在指数层 面，因为一方面需要技术 ...