交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年4月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：周五，市场交易重心转移至5月，贸易商商谈为主。个别主流供应商有出货。4月底少量在05+15~20有成交，个别 略高在05+30。5月上主流在09+40附近成交，个别略低在09+20~30成交，略高在09+45成交，5月底在09+45有成交。5月中下个 别主流供应商在09+35~50有成交。今日主流现货基差在05+19。中性 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：PTA自身装置检修兑现下延续去库，但下游终端需求仍受美国关税影响，且随着仓单流出PTA现货市场流通性尚可， 短期内PTA现货基差上行受阻，价格则跟随 ...

2025 年 4 月 27 日 锰硅：成本支撑减弱，锰硅偏弱震荡 硅铁：黑色板块共振，硅铁偏弱震荡 | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei029984@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan029838@gtjas.com | 报告导读： 【走势回顾】本周硅铁 2506 合约走势震荡偏弱，收于 5,640 元/吨，周环比变化-42 元/吨，成交 523,015 手，持仓 168,404 手，持仓环比变化-57,792 手。本周锰硅 2509 合约价格走势震荡偏弱， 收于 5,796 元/吨，周环比变化-100 元/吨，成交 226995 手，持仓 87763 手，持仓环比变化 54,077 手。 【供应】硅铁本周产量为 9.89 万吨，产量较上周环比变化-0.14 万吨，环比变化率为-1.4%。周开工 率为 30.91%，较上周变动-1.49 个百分点。锰硅本周产量 18.61 万吨，产量较上周环比变化-0.26 万吨，环比变化率为-1.4%，周开工率为 41.5 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.04.25 」 纯碱玻璃市场周报 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 u 行情回顾：本周纯碱期货涨3.1%，周内纯碱期货价格整体以探底后大幅回升为主。周初在弱预期的压制 下盘面下探新低，不过随后市场传出即将新增大量检修计划的消息，尤其是几大高成本氨碱企业存联合 检修挺价的消息对盘面形成较强扰动，叠加月底中下游存一定的节前备货需求，空头资金避险离场形成 较大幅度反弹，玻璃期货本周主力合约下跌0.09%，本周玻璃期货主力合约处于震荡偏弱态势。期货价 格在一定区间内波动，整体上涨动力不足，总体而言，在供需不平衡、库存高位以及宏观经济环境等因 素的综合影响下，呈现出震荡偏弱的态势。 u 行情展望：当前纯碱行业开工率维持在较高水平，即便部分企业有检修计划，但整体供应减量幅度有限。 加之新增产能逐步释放，预计下周市场供应将持续宽松，受益于光伏玻璃需求增加，纯碱库存整体出现 下滑，期货价格走高 ...

化工日报 | 2025-04-25 轮胎厂开工率延续小幅下降趋势 橡胶观点 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约14735元/吨，较前一日变动+40元/吨。NR主力合约12400元/吨，较前一日变动-130 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14550元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14500元/吨， 较前一日变动+0元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1730美元/吨，较前一日变动-20美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标 胶1665美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11700元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价11350元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。 近期市场资讯：近期丁苯橡胶、炭黑、防老剂等原料价格继续下调，轮胎成本面支撑稍有减弱，部分半钢胎企业 追加促销政策支持，以带动出货量，实际效果一般。 市场分析 天然橡胶： 现货及价差：2025-04-25，RU基差-185元/吨（+10），RU主力与混合胶价差235元/吨（+40），烟片胶进口利润-5505 元/吨（+59.81），NR基差73.00元/吨（-17.00） ...

策略 近期精炼镍现货的成交意愿降温，叠加60分钟线在126400附近出现顶背离现象，预估近期区间上沿是在 126000-128000，预估区间下沿是在122000附近，短期内或许会有回调，短线操作建议暂缓，回避系统性风险，中 长线仍然维持逢高卖出套保的思路。 单边：区间操作为主 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 镍品种 市场分析 2025-04-24日沪镍主力合约2506开于126080元/吨，收于125770元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-0.10%，当日成交量 为151901手，持仓量为66699手。 沪镍主力合约2506早盘全天延续小幅震荡，日线收小阴线。06主力合约受换月的影响成交量对比上个交易日继续 有大幅度的增加，持仓量也有所增加。从量能方面来看，日线MACD的红柱面积未有继续放大，短周期内的上行 趋势放缓，60分钟线在126400附近出现顶背离现象，叠加近期沪镍盘面清明后的上行趋势已超9个交易日。现货市 场方面，金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日上调约25元/吨，市场主流品牌报价涨跌不一。多数下游在上周前已是超配 备货状态，市场刚需采购的力度有所减弱，精炼镍现货成交整体仍然未见起色，升贴水由于主力 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply - demand situation in the feed and breeding industry is complex, with each product facing different market conditions. For example, in the short term, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as holidays, production, and consumption, showing a trend of high - level volatility; in the long term, factors such as production capacity changes, weather, and policy will have an impact on prices [1][2][5][6]. 3. Summary by Product Pig - **Current Situation**: On April 24, the spot price of pigs in Liaoning was 14.4 - 15.1 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.6 - 15.3 yuan/kg, also down 0.1 yuan/kg. The price in the morning was stable with a slight downward trend. The supply in April continued to increase, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs continued to narrow. The demand was limited by the high price and off - peak consumption season [1]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Outlook**: From May to November 2024, the inventory of breeding sows increased slowly, and the production performance improved. From April to September 2025, the supply showed an increasing trend. From November 2024 to February 2025, the number of piglets increased year - on - year. The supply pressure in the second quarter was still high, and the pig price was at risk of decline under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Starting from December 2024, the pig production capacity was reduced, but the reduction range was limited [1]. - **Strategy**: Under the background of increased and postponed supply, the pig price rebound was under pressure, but the decline of the futures price was also limited due to the early realization of weak expectations. For the 07 contract, the pressure level was 13800 - 14000, and the support level was 13300 - 13400; for the 09 contract, the pressure level was 14600 - 14800, and the support level was 13800 - 14000. It was advisable to sell out - of - the - money call options for the 07 and 09 contracts at high prices [1]. Egg - **Current Situation**: On April 24, the price of eggs in Shandong Dezhou was 3.3 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day; in Beijing, it was 3.7 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin. The approaching May Day holiday increased the terminal consumption expectation and supported the egg price, but the supply was relatively sufficient due to the large number of laying hens starting to lay eggs and the slow elimination of production capacity [2]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Outlook**: High breeding profits drove high enthusiasm for replenishment from December 2024 to February 2025, resulting in an increase in the number of newly - opened laying hens in the second quarter. The supply was expected to continue to increase in the second half of the year, but the impact of the elimination of old hens on the phased supply needed to be noted [2]. - **Strategy**: The 06 contract was slightly at a discount to the spot price, and it was expected to fluctuate in the short term. The 08 and 09 contracts were bearish in the long - term logic, and attention should be paid to the impact of feed prices and the elimination of hens [2]. Oil - **Current Situation**: On April 23, the US soybean oil main 7 - month contract rose 0.98% to 48.47 cents/pound, and the Malaysian palm oil main 7 - month contract rose 1.71% to 4035 ringgit/ton. The domestic palm oil price changed by 20 - 100 yuan/ton to 8890 - 9270 yuan/ton, the soybean oil price rose 50 - 60 yuan/ton to 8090 - 8390 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil price rose 10 yuan/ton to 9420 - 9780 yuan/ton [3][4]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Outlook**: - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian inventory started to rise in March, and the production continued to increase in April. Although the export was strong, the market was still trading the future production increase expectation. In the short term, the 07 contract of Malaysian palm oil was expected to fluctuate, and in the long term, the price was likely to decline from May to July [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: The South American soybean supply pressure was huge in the second quarter, but factors such as Sino - US negotiations, the improvement of US biodiesel demand, and the decrease in the sowing area of new - season US soybeans were in a game. The 07 contract of US soybeans was expected to fluctuate around 1050 in the short term. The domestic soybean oil supply pressure was huge in the second quarter, and the price was likely to fall first and then rise from July to September [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed market was in a high - level shock. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory was at a high level, and the short - term supply pressure was still large. After the opening of Australian rapeseed imports, the shortage of long - term rapeseed supply was expected to be partially alleviated, and the price was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [7]. - **Strategy**: For the 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, it was advisable to be cautious about chasing the rise in the short term. For the spread trading, it was advisable to expand the spread of the 09 contract of rapeseed oil and palm oil [8]. Soybean Meal - **Current Situation**: On April 23, the US soybean 07 contract rose 4.25 cents to 1050.25 cents/bushel. The domestic spot basis strengthened significantly, and the 05 contract price also rose. The short - term price was expected to remain strong due to the low inventory, but there was a risk of a high - level decline as the soybean arrival increased at the end of April [8]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Outlook**: Tariff policies led to an increase in the cost of importing US soybeans and a decrease in the supply. The domestic market would transfer more positions to South America, which was expected to drive up the prices of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in the long term. The sowing area of US soybeans was expected to decrease, and the domestic soybean meal price was expected to be strong in the long term [8]. - **Strategy**: For the 09 contract, it was advisable to be short at high prices in the short term, paying attention to the 3150 pressure level, and be long at low prices in the long term, paying attention to the 2900 support level. For the spread trading, it was advisable to do long - short spreads for the 5 - 9, 7 - 9, and 9 - 1 spreads [8]. Corn - **Current Situation**: On April 23, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2210 yuan/ton, and the平仓 price was 2250 yuan/ton. The price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao rose 10 yuan/ton to 2366 yuan/ton. The supply and demand game in the market intensified, but the market was still optimistic about the future price [9]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Outlook**: The new - season corn production was expected to decrease, and the import continued to decrease, which provided an upward driving force for the price. However, the reduction in production might be less than expected, and the price increase space was limited due to factors such as the decrease in planting costs and the supply of substitutes [9]. - **Strategy**: The overall trend was expected to be stable and slightly strong. It was advisable to buy on dips, and attention should be paid to the 2280 support level of the 07 contract [9].

期货热点追踪 燃油价格收盘涨近4%，领涨国内期市，夏季电力需求会否继续支撑上涨行情？美国精准打击伊朗航运 网络，实际出口削减量仍存疑？ 相关链接 ...

苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 苯乙烯日报 | 2025-04-23 下游压力仍存，港口基差弱势盘整 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差224元/吨（+14元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-193元/吨（-50元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存86500吨（-9100吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存65100吨（-5000吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率66.8%（-1.6%）。 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存12.10万吨（-2.10万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费180美元/吨（-4美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费165美元/吨（-4美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差31.6美元/吨（-1.0美元/吨），仍处于关闭状态。华东纯苯现货-M2价差 80元/吨（+25元/吨）。 市场分析 纯苯方面，下游需求仍偏弱，PA6以及MDI库存压力偏大，拖累己内酰胺及苯胺开工低位，苯乙烯亦集中检修；而 上游供应方面，国内纯苯开工率进一步下降至低位，纯苯到港脉冲式回落，港口库存再度去库，但后续韩国发往 中国压力仍存，纯苯加工费仍有压力。苯乙烯方面，苯乙烯检修进一步增多，苯乙烯开工率明显下滑，苯乙烯港 口库存延续下降，但港口基差走弱，反映下游压 ...

期货研究报告 下游需求低迷，棉花短线承压 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-23 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨， 降至 150 ...

金十数据整理：每日期货市场要闻速递（4月23日） 1. 4月22日，中国47港进口铁矿石库存总量14642.41万吨，较上周一增加4.96万吨。 2. 2025年4月14日-4月20日期间，澳大利亚、巴西七个主要港口铁矿石库存总量1218.8万吨，环比下降 26.3万吨。 3. 河钢4月硅铁招标定价5950元/吨，询盘价5900元/吨，3月定价6180元/吨，较上月下跌230元/吨。 4. 巴西商贸部数据显示，2025年4月第3周，共计13个工作日，巴西累计装出铁矿石1668.26万吨，去年4 月为2963.4万吨。 5. 4月18日，全国主要油厂进口大豆库存469万吨，周环比上升70万吨，月环比上升193万吨，同比上升 62万吨。 7. 国际铝业协会（IAI）：2025年3月份全球原铝产量为622.7万吨，去年同期为608.9万吨，前一个月修 正值为566万吨。 8. 知名投行麦格理（Macquarie）表示，上调全球化矿产商必和必拓集团（BHP Group）铜产量目标， 因位于智利的Escondida矿表现良好。 9. 据欧盟委员会，截至4月20日，欧盟2024/2025年棕榈油进口量为230万吨，而去年 ...