广发证券 资深宏观分析师 陈礼清 博士 chenliqing@ gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 2025 上半年大类资产表现为黄金＞欧股＞港股＞铜 ＞ 多 VIX ＞比特币＞中证 1000 ＞美股＞上证综指＞日经＞原油＞美元，节奏演绎"反转—反转—再反 转"。一季度港股黄金领跑，美股日股比特币靠后；二季度美股日股比特币反弹领涨，恒生科技收跌，A股资产涨幅收敛。美元呈单边弱势。我们编制的大类资产轮 动指数显示上半年资产以及 A 股行业轮动加快，尤其是一季度与 5-6 月， 19 类大类资产排名总变动名次数自 2014 年 12 月下旬的 116.7 名次升至 2025 年 3 月的 134.7 名次， 4 月重新降至 115 名次，但 5-6 月再度回升至 133.8 名次。在每一轮反转交易的中后段，资产与行业均轮动速度加快。我们理解，"赔率"在反转交易 的"前端与尾端"均扮演着重要角色。一方面，经济预期抢跑与事件性风险驱动易引发"折返"、"冲回"式反转交易，而避险与趋险资产快速沿胜率方向"超买"、"超 卖"，又重新打出新一轮"反转交易"空间。另一方面，"反转交易"中后段，占优资产若继续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent initiatives by the Chinese government and automotive associations aim to promote healthy and orderly development in the automotive industry, addressing the issue of "involution" competition [1][3][5]. Group 1: Government and Industry Initiatives - Since the release of the initiative to maintain fair competition in May, the automotive industry has seen a wave of responses aimed at countering involution [3]. - Multiple government departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, have quickly introduced measures such as product consistency checks and support for companies to adhere to a 60-day payment term [3][5]. - Major automotive companies are responding by shortening payment cycles and optimizing dealer rebate mechanisms [3]. Group 2: Quality and Safety Standards - The automotive industry is shifting focus from price wars to high-quality development centered on safety and technology [10][17]. - New mandatory national standards have been introduced, including updates to collision safety requirements, which will take effect on July 1 next year [11][13]. - The new standards include increased requirements for side collision tests and additional safety measures for electric vehicles [11][13][15]. Group 3: Advanced Testing and Safety Measures - Third-party testing organizations are conducting safety tests that exceed the new national standards, focusing on battery safety and structural integrity under extreme conditions [18][22]. - Rigorous testing scenarios include high-speed collisions and multiple impact tests to ensure vehicle safety, particularly for new energy vehicles [21][23]. - The upcoming standards for vehicle door handles will also include safety performance tests, emphasizing the reliability of new designs under various conditions [25].

Group 1: Company Announcements - Dongxing Securities has received approval from the CSRC to issue no more than 20 billion yuan in corporate bonds and no more than 5 billion yuan in perpetual subordinated bonds [5] - Lepu Medical's hyaluronic acid injection product has received registration approval from the National Medical Products Administration [5] - HNA Holding has completed the disposal of its A-share stock in Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank [5] - Yunda Lifeng is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5] - Kefu Medical is also planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5] - Xingchen Technology is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5] - Jiaotong Angli is under investigation by the CSRC for suspected violations of information disclosure [5] - Yuanzhi Communication is under investigation by the CSRC for suspected false financial data reporting [5] - China CRRC expects a year-on-year net profit increase of 60% to 80% for the first half of the year [5] - Guosen Securities anticipates a year-on-year net profit increase of 52% to 76% for the first half of the year [5] - Zhongling Heavy Industry expects a year-on-year net profit increase of 50% to 65% for the first half of the year [5] - Dongpeng Beverage expects a year-on-year net profit increase of 33.48% to 41.57% for the first half of the year [5] - China Jushi anticipates a year-on-year net profit increase of 71.65% to 76.85% for the first half of the year [5] - Zangge Mining expects a year-on-year net profit increase of 34.93% to 46.49% for the first half of the year [5] - Jingneng Power expects a year-on-year net profit increase of 103.24% to 134.74% for the first half of the year [5] - Guolian Zhansheng expects a year-on-year net profit increase of approximately 1183% for the first half of the year [5] - China National Materials Technology expects a year-on-year net profit increase of 80.77% to 123.81% for the first half of the year [5] - Yayi International anticipates a year-on-year net profit increase of 170% to 244% for the first half of the year [5] Group 2: Industry Developments - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have released guidelines for the procedural trading report requirements for investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect, effective January 12, 2026 [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has published the 2025 work points for the integration of informatization and industrialization, focusing on promoting digital transformation [1] - The China Automotive Industry Association is taking measures to prevent "involution overflow" as part of its efforts to promote orderly growth in overseas markets [1] - The Xinhua-Baltic International Shipping Center Development Index Report for 2025 indicates that Singapore, London, and Shanghai remain the top three global shipping centers, with Shanghai narrowing the gap with London significantly [1] - The China Securities Association has issued opinions to strengthen self-regulation and promote high-quality development in the securities industry [1]

Group 1 - A-shares have broken through the 3500-point mark, a level not seen since January 24, 2022, indicating a potential bull market phase [1][2] - Historically, A-shares have only broken through 3500 points from the bottom four times, with the previous three occurrences being in bull markets [1] - The real estate sector is showing signs of recovery, driven by rumors of solutions to real estate issues, which may support market sentiment [1][2] Group 2 - Supply-side reforms are crucial in addressing internal competition, which will impact domestic demand and technological innovation [1] - The technology sector is experiencing positive changes, with companies like Zhiyuan Robotics planning a reverse merger and Changxin Storage starting its listing guidance, potentially boosting the industry chain and market risk appetite [1] - Recent news includes a 2% increase in pension for retirees and several companies releasing impressive earnings forecasts, indicating positive economic signals [1]

Group 1: Industry Insights - The China Automobile Industry Association is actively working to prevent "involution spillover" by promoting respect for local cultures and laws during overseas expansion, aiming for orderly growth [1] - The association has reported positive progress in anti-involution efforts, with mainstream industry players taking proactive measures to enhance self-discipline [1] Group 2: Company Performance - GAC Group expects a net loss of 1.82 billion to 2.6 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a net profit of 1.516 billion yuan in the same period last year, due to slow sales of new energy models and the impact of price wars [1] - XPeng Motors has officially communicated a commitment to a 60-day payment term to suppliers, marking a significant adjustment in its payment practices [1] Group 3: Market Developments - Volkswagen is reportedly planning to close its Nanjing factory by the end of this year, marking the first complete shutdown of a manufacturing plant in China, although SAIC Volkswagen claims operations are normal [2] - Tesla will open its first experience center in Mumbai, India, on July 15, showcasing popular models and providing test drives and consultations, indicating its entry into the Indian market [3] - Mercedes-Benz India reported a 10% year-on-year increase in retail sales for April to June, reaching 4,238 units, driven by demand for high-end models and a 157% increase in electric vehicle sales [4] Group 4: Regulatory Impact - Volkswagen has paused deliveries of an electric vehicle to the U.S. due to dissatisfaction with seat width and significant punitive tariffs imposed by the U.S. government, which have increased from 2.5% to 27.5% since April, potentially costing German manufacturers over 11 billion euros this year [5]

"反内卷"聚焦新兴制造业 随着政策持续发力，"反内卷"已成为市场新的投资主线，钢铁、光伏等板块强势反弹。截至7月11日，6 月23日以来国泰钢铁ETF上涨12.18%，汇添富光伏龙头ETF、银华光伏50ETF、华泰柏瑞光伏ETF等涨 幅超过13%。 资金面则呈现显著分化。对于相关传统行业如钢铁板块，资金选择获利了结；而新兴领域如光伏行业， 则吸引资金持续加仓。Choice数据显示，截至7月10日，6月23日以来国泰钢铁ETF被净赎回7.29亿元。 同期，光伏主题ETF净申购额合计20.82亿元。其中，华泰柏瑞光伏ETF份额增至169.61亿份，创上市以 来新高。 这种分歧的背后，与"反内卷"的聚焦方向密切相关。富国基金认为，"反内卷"聚焦行业并非黑色板块相 关的传统行业，而是光伏、锂电池、新能源汽车、电商平台等新兴领域。 富国基金分析称，传统上游资源品的资本开支扩张情况并不严重，因此短期对于传统上游资源品影响不 大。"反内卷"聚焦中下游制造，对于初期的上游商品来说，或带来需求小幅下行。下游竞争格局优化、 终端需求改善后，有望再度拉动上游需求。 投资锚定"质"与"势" ◎记者 赵明超 近期，"反内卷"相关投资机 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese automotive industry is undergoing a transformation towards electrification and intelligent networking, facing structural challenges and intensified competition [1][2] - The 2025 China Automotive Forum held discussions on moving away from detrimental "involution" competition and focusing on value creation [1] - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) emphasizes the need for a long-term mechanism to shift market dynamics from price-driven to value-driven [1][4] Group 2 - In the first half of 2023, China's automotive production and sales both exceeded 15 million units, with year-on-year growth of 12.5% and 11.4% respectively [2] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) have become a dominant force in the market, with production and sales reaching 6.968 million and 6.937 million units, marking year-on-year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% [2][3] - NEVs accounted for 44.3% of total new car sales, and the total NEV ownership ratio has reached 10% [2][3] Group 3 - The ongoing "anti-involution" discussions highlight the need for industry players to address the negative impacts of price wars on profitability and innovation [4][6] - Industry leaders stress the importance of collaboration and trust among global automotive companies to foster sustainable development [4][6] - The call for a return to "long-termism" in business practices is gaining traction, with industry representatives advocating for a focus on brand value and customer insights [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guosheng Technology, reported significant revenue growth in its photovoltaic business but faced a substantial decline in gross margin due to competitive pressures and falling prices in the solar industry [1][6][10]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved total revenue of 2.094 billion yuan, with photovoltaic business revenue reaching 1.964 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 113.12% [1]. - The gross margin for the photovoltaic business was -0.50%, a decrease of 16.90 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Revenue from photovoltaic modules and battery business was 1.908 billion yuan, up 125.03% year-on-year, while the gross margin was -0.82%, down 14.88 percentage points [1][10]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing severe competition, leading to irrational pricing and significant losses across the supply chain [7][8]. - The prices of key raw materials, particularly silicon wafers, have seen drastic declines, impacting the pricing of photovoltaic products [6][7]. - The market for photovoltaic products is characterized by structural oversupply, with global demand still strong but supply exceeding 1,100 GW against 600 GW of new installations [8][10]. Group 3: Contractual Details - The company has secured major contracts with state-owned enterprises, including a 539 million yuan contract for a 400 MW offshore photovoltaic project and a 749 million yuan contract for a 600 MW salt-light complementary photovoltaic project [10]. - The contracts were primarily obtained through bidding and business negotiations, with no related party transactions involved [4][10]. Group 4: Price Trends - The price of monocrystalline P-type silicon wafers dropped from 4.43 yuan per piece in January 2023 to 1.15 yuan per piece by December 2024, a decrease of 74.04% [6]. - The price of PERC battery cells fell from 0.85 yuan per watt in January 2023 to 0.275 yuan per watt by December 2024, a decline of 67.65% [6][7].

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 招商研究一周回顾 （0704-0711） 招商研发宏观组与策略组重要观点回顾摘要： 宏观组。 1、对宏观政策而言，反内卷政策与传统的财政、货币政策还是有较大区别，也就 是说下半年的宏观政策手段可能是一些非传统的措施。但是只要能看到价格形势 的边际转变，同样也会对资产价格造成影响。那么大致的方向应该是：权益产品 的基本面将逐步改善，价格水平将从市场收益率的下行动力转变为上行压力。短 期内，顺周期商品价格可能延续底部回升的走势。 2、特朗普签署"大而美"法案。特朗普对政府及共和党控制力稳固并加强，其地位 在 6 月以来的一系列"成功"后得到巩固。司法方面，特朗普获得美国最高法院对 总统行政权力的支持。一方面特朗普为后续施政扫除了障碍，将更坚定其当前路 线，整体政策倾向不会发生大的变化（即核心关注国内移民、经济议题，对外方 面关注关税贸易议题、大国关系再平衡）；另一方面，需要警惕特朗普在政治上 的自信进一步加强，或有可能导致其在关税贸易等对外议题上不太容易妥协。 策略组。 1、从中期的趋势来看，"反内卷"是推动指数走牛的关键力量，"反内卷"驱动上市 公司削减资产开支，出清过剩产能，经 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight increase today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.01% to 3510.18 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.61% and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.80% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 218 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market sentiment appears to be strong in the short term, with over 2900 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance - Leading sectors today included securities, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and steel, while financials, telecommunications, photovoltaics, and dividends lagged [1] - The market showed a preference for small-cap stocks over large-cap stocks, with growth stocks outperforming value stocks [1] Policy Insights - The "anti-involution" theme is identified as a potential main line for the second half of the year, with a focus on upstream sectors leading the way [3][4] - Recent meetings emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity, reminiscent of the supply-side reforms of 2015 [3][4] - The ongoing decline in PPI has drawn policy attention, suggesting potential supply-side adjustments in sectors like steel, coal, and cement [3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The supply-demand mismatch in upstream resource products is significant, leading to price declines as firms engage in price competition [4][6] - Current demand conditions are similar to those in July of the previous year, but prices have adjusted downward, aligning better with supply-demand dynamics [6] - The performance of consumer goods differs, with companies increasingly adopting price reductions to boost sales volumes [6][7] Historical Context - Historical cases of supply-side contraction have shown that market reactions often lag behind policy announcements, with stock prices typically responding after initial skepticism [7][9] - Past supply-side reforms have led to significant price increases in commodities, although demand-side pressures remain a concern [9][12] International Factors - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with recent non-farm payroll data exceeding expectations, which has tempered interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve [12][13] - The ongoing trade negotiations and tariff strategies under the Trump administration are expected to create uncertainty in the market [15][16]