1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The soda ash futures market is in a weak oscillation phase, with supply and demand contradictions prominent and prices expected to remain in low - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see. The expected operating range of soda ash 2509 is 1150 - 1300 [6][11][12] - The glass futures market is in an oscillatory trend, with high inventory and weak demand. It is expected to operate weakly in an oscillatory manner. It is recommended to hold an empty position and wait and see. The expected operating range of glass 2509 is 950 - 1150 [31][34][35] 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The soda ash market was in a weak oscillation last week, with prices falling differentially. Light soda ash was priced at 940 - 1440 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash at 960 - 1490 yuan/ton. Supply had minor fluctuations due to maintenance and复产, while demand was weak. The futures first declined and then rebounded briefly but faced limited upside due to prominent supply - demand contradictions. It is expected to maintain low - level oscillation, and changes in production capacity, inventory, and demand should be monitored. The mid - line strategy is to wait and see [6] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: At the beginning of last week, soda ash rose due to policy benefits and sentiment but fell the next day. The industry's fundamentals were weak, with high开工, high inventory, high production capacity, and downstream glass production reduction expectations suppressing demand. The price was pressured by glass and was expected to oscillate in the short term, with the expected operating range of soda ash 2509 being 1150 - 1300. It was advisable to wait and see [11] - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The soda ash market was in a weak oscillation last week, with prices falling differentially. Supply had minor fluctuations, demand was weak, and the futures had a short - term rebound but limited upside. It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, with the expected operating range of soda ash 2509 being 1150 - 1300. It is advisable to wait and see [12] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - Relevant data include China's weekly soda ash开工 rate, production, light and heavy soda ash inventory, basis (daily), and ammonia - soda production cost in North China (weekly). The main force is relatively bearish, with a multi - empty flow of - 76.3, rapid inflow of main - force funds (energy of 84.1), and high risk of market reversal (multi - empty divergence of 92.1) [13][17][19][23] Glass Futures 3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The 5mm float glass market was stable with narrow oscillations last week, with limited price fluctuations. Supply remained stable, demand was regionally differentiated, and the market was in a wait - and - see state. The futures were oscillating weakly, suppressed by high inventory and weak demand, with cost and production reduction expectations limiting the decline. It is expected to operate weakly in an oscillatory manner, and the mid - line strategy is to hold an empty position and wait and see [31] 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The float glass price oscillated last week, with some local areas rising slightly. The core of the market was inventory reduction. High inventory pressure persisted, and supply - demand did not improve significantly. It was expected to oscillate in the short term, with limited rebound space. The expected operating range of glass 2509 was 950 - 1150, and it was advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [34] - **This week's strategy suggestion**: The 5mm float glass market was stable with narrow oscillations last week, with small price fluctuations. Supply was stable, demand was differentiated, and the market was in a wait - and - see state. It is expected that glass 2509 will operate in the range of 950 - 1150, and it is advisable to hold an empty position and wait and see [35] 3.3 Relevant Data Situation - Relevant data include China's weekly float glass production,开工 rate, production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, basis (daily), and ending inventory. The main - force inclination is not obvious, with a multi - empty flow of - 7.5, a slight inflow of main - force funds (energy of 20.6), and high risk of market reversal (multi - empty divergence of 94.9) [36][40][42][44][47]

农产品日报 | 2025-07-11 市场分析 昨日苹果期价收涨，传统淡季市场交易清淡，受消暑类替代品水果大量上市影响，走货一般，后续关注走货情况 是否转好及早熟果上市情况。分产区来看，上周随着气温继续升高，苹果仍处传统销售淡季，暑期消暑时令水果 的冲击，对苹果去库形成一定压力。大果剩余占比较多，目前发市场客户少量按需要货，电商客户因价格拿货吃 力。由于产地现阶段剩余库存处于低位，新产季产量预期较去年变化不大，苹果基本面暂无突出矛盾，初步预计 新季晚熟富士收购价或高于去年。后期需重点关注产区早熟品种价格走势及天气情况。 新季套袋基本结束，整体 套袋量较前期略有修正。甘肃产区走货速度放缓。目前剩余货源多集中在大型果业公司及大储存商手中，自提发 货为主，调货交易不多。山西、河南产区基本清库。辽宁产区 、剩余少量货源集中在存货商手中，按需发市场。 副产区基本处于清库阶段，整体行情不大。销区方面，广东批发市场上周早间到车辆环比前周明显减少，目前随 着气温升高，消暑类水果价格较低销售增多，部分现货商转做应季水果，冲击苹果市场走货，市场到车量仍处较 低位置，终端消化略有放缓，二三级批发商维持按需拿货。 策略 中性。当前库 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply last week was 75,000 tons, a 1.35% increase compared to the previous week, and the demand was 77,000 tons, a 11.59% increase. The cost support in Xinjiang has weakened during the wet season. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8355 - 8585 [6][7]. - For polysilicon, last week's production was 22,800 tons, a 5.00% decrease compared to the previous week, and the forecasted production in July is 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase compared to the previous month. The overall demand shows a continuous decline, and the 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 40705 - 41985 [9]. Summaries by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 75,000 tons, a 1.35% increase compared to the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 77,000 tons, a 11.59% increase compared to the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, organic silicon inventory is at a high level, and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygen - permeable 553 in Xinjiang is 3475 yuan/ton, and the cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - **Basis**: On July 10th, the spot price of non - oxygen - permeable in East China was 8500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 30 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 551,000 tons, a 0.18% decrease compared to the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 174,100 tons, a 12.99% decrease; and major port inventory is 124,000 tons, a 1.58% decrease [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling has decreased and remains at a low level, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and the 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8355 - 8585 [6][7]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 22,800 tons, a 5.00% decrease compared to the previous week. The forecasted production in July is 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase compared to the previous month [9]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer production was 11.5GW, a 3.36% decrease compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 181,300 tons, a 5.67% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production of battery cells and components also shows a downward trend [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 34,780 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 11,220 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On July 10th, the price of N - type polysilicon was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 4955 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory is 276,000 tons, a 1.47% increase compared to the previous week, and it is at a low level compared to the same period in history [9]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and long positions are increasing [9]. - **Expectation**: Supply scheduling will increase in the short term and is expected to decline in the medium term. Overall demand shows a continuous decline, cost support has strengthened, and the 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 40705 - 41985 [9]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The prices of most futures contracts have increased, and the spot prices of some specifications have remained stable [15]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory have all decreased [15]. - **Production**: The production of some sample enterprises has increased, while the production of others has decreased [15]. - **Cost and Profit**: The costs and profits of some regions and specifications have changed slightly [15]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The prices of some silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have changed, and the average cost of the polysilicon industry has increased slightly [17]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of silicon wafers has decreased, while the inventory of photovoltaic cells in external sales factories has increased [17]. - **Production**: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has shown a downward trend [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply and demand balance shows a certain degree of imbalance, with supply exceeding demand in some months [17].

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 10 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：7月9日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2510 | 306 ...

塑料产业日报 2025-07-09 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7278 | 33 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7254 | 29 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7226 | 26 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7278 | 33 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 218535 | 9174 持仓量(日,手) | 436321 | -12259 | | | 1月-5月合约价差 | 28 | 3 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 356143 | -7143 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 396063 | -15721 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -39920 | 8578 | | 现货市场 | LLDPE(7042)均价:华北(日,元/吨) | 7244.78 | -15.65 LLDPE(7042)均价 ...

期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 2025 年上半年产区苹果价格呈现偏强运行。2024-2025 产季入库量高于前期市场预期，出库时间明显提前，2024 年 11 月初陆续有 产区开始出库。目前产地剩余库存量仍处于近 5 年偏低位置，6 月份行情表现清淡，库内成交氛围不浓，性价比高的货源成交尚可， 大果走货不快，季节性淡季影响明显，消暑类水果需求继续对苹果走货形成压制…… 苹果供需暂无突出矛盾，红枣关注新季生 长情况 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 联系人 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 7 月 6 日 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 联系人 白旭宇 期货研究报告 | 果蔬半年报 20 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main PVC futures price fluctuated in the range of 4807 - 4956. As of the close on July 4, 2025, the V2509 contract closed at 4906 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from last week's close [9]. - On the supply side, affected by the shutdown and maintenance of plants such as Ningxia Yinglite and Inner Mongolia Sanlian this week, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.65% month - on - month to 77.44%. On the demand side, the downstream PVC operating rate increased by 0.1% month - on - month to 42.88%, among which the pipe operating rate increased by 0.94% month - on - month to 39.5%, and the profile operating rate decreased by 0.25% month - on - month to 34.75%. In terms of inventory, this week's PP commercial inventory decreased by 0.09% month - on - month to 78.51 tons, at a neutral level in the same period of the past three years. In terms of cost, this week, the national average cost of the calcium carbide method increased slightly to 5109 yuan/ton, and the national average cost of the ethylene method increased to 5647 yuan/ton. The losses of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method processes deepened to varying degrees [9]. - In July, domestic PVC plants will have centralized maintenance. Next week, plants such as Shanxi Yushe, Yanhu Haina, and Ordos have shutdown plans, and it is expected that the capacity utilization rate will maintain a downward trend. In July, plants such as Wanhua, Bohua, and Tianjin Dagu are planned to be put into production. The policy to promote the withdrawal of backward production capacity is expected to relieve the future supply pressure. It is the off - season for domestic downstream demand, and the demand in the Indian market is suppressed by the rainy season. The Indian BIS certification has been postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy may be implemented in early July. In terms of cost, the impact of power rationing in Inner Mongolia has weakened, and some calcium carbide plants have resumed production; the United States has revoked the restrictions on ethane exports to China, which may drive down the cost of the ethylene method in the future. In the short term, the expectation of production capacity withdrawal and real - estate support policies gives room for the premium of the main futures contract, but the contract price is suppressed by the weak supply - demand and cost in the real market. It is expected that V2509 will fluctuate weakly next week. Technically, pay attention to the support around 4810 and the resistance around 4960 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Price: The main PVC futures price fluctuated in the range of 4807 - 4956. The V2509 contract closed at 4906 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from last week [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply - side capacity utilization decreased by 0.65% to 77.44%; demand - side downstream operating rate increased by 0.1% to 42.88%, with pipe operating rate up 0.94% and profile operating rate down 0.25%. PP commercial inventory decreased by 0.09% to 78.51 tons. Calcium carbide method cost rose to 5109 yuan/ton, and ethylene method cost rose to 5647 yuan/ton, with losses deepening [9]. - Outlook: July has centralized plant maintenance, capacity utilization is expected to decline. New plant launches and policy - driven capacity withdrawal may relieve supply pressure. It's the off - season for domestic demand, and Indian demand is affected by the rainy season. Cost may decline. The futures contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - The V2509 contract fluctuated. The registered warehouse receipt volume increased slightly. The main contract's open interest fluctuated slightly, and the 9 - 1 spread weakened slightly [10][13]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - CFR China quoted at 700 dollars (- 20); Southeast Asia quoted at 660 dollars (- 20); India quoted at 720 dollars (- 20). The spot prices of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC in East China fluctuated slightly. The basis was slightly weak, and the futures contract was at a premium [20][25][28]. 3.3 Industry Conditions 3.3.1 Upstream - The price of semi - coke remained stable, and calcium carbide was slightly stronger. The semi - coke operating rate was 39.59%, and the calcium carbide operating rate was 63.86%. The VCM CIF intermediate price was 520 dollars/ton, and the EDC international price was 184 dollars/ton [36][41][45]. 3.3.2 Industry Chain - Supply: The PVC capacity growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 10.77%. The output in June was 1.9913 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. The capacity utilization rate decreased week - on - week [49][53]. - Demand: The pipe operating rate increased week - on - week, and the profile operating rate decreased. The export of PVC floor products in May decreased month - on - month. In May, imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while exports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [57][61][64]. - Inventory: PVC social inventory changed from destocking to stocking [69]. - Cost: The cost of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method increased week - on - week [73]. - Profit: The losses of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method processes deepened [80]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was reported at 12.99%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 21.7% [86].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ - Styrene: ★★★ - PTA: ★★★ - Short Fiber: ★★★ - Methanol: ★★★ - Urea: ★★★ - PVC: ★★★ - Caustic Soda: ★★★ - Glass: ★★★ - Soda Ash: ★★★ - Plastic: ★★★ - PX: ★★★ - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The methanol market is expected to consolidate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to port inventory data and changes in Iranian device and shipping schedules [2]. - The urea price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and exports may become the key to the subsequent market trend [3]. - The supply - demand contradiction in the polyolefin market continues [4]. - The PX and PTA markets may gradually become looser in the medium term, and the ethylene glycol market will gradually stabilize and enter a bottom - range shock pattern [6]. - The PVC futures price may fluctuate at a low level in the long term, and the caustic soda futures price is expected to continue the low - level trend [7]. - The glass futures price is expected to fluctuate with costs, and the soda ash futures price is mainly based on a high - level short - selling strategy [8]. Summary by Product Methanol - The methanol futures price has risen. With the easing of the Iran - Israel situation, the expectation of a significant reduction in imported methanol supply has failed. Most current devices remain shut down, and the port inventory has decreased significantly. However, downstream acceptance of high - priced raw materials is average [2]. Urea - Urea agricultural demand is gradually approaching the end of the peak season, but there is still some rigid demand. The daily output has decreased slightly, and the supply - demand margin has improved. The export policy has been relaxed, and the port inventory has increased significantly. The short - term international urea price increase has driven the improvement of domestic demand [3]. Polyolefins - The futures prices of polyolefins have risen slightly. Some previously shut - down polyethylene devices have restarted, and the demand is in the off - season. The cost support for polypropylene has declined, and the downstream demand is weak [4]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices continue to fluctuate narrowly. The supply of PX and PTA may increase in the medium term, and the industrial supply - demand pattern may gradually become looser. The ethylene glycol price has fallen and is expected to stabilize. Short fiber and bottle chip prices have followed the raw materials to fluctuate slightly [6]. Chlor - Alkali - The PVC cost has increased, and the supply remains high. The domestic demand is weak, and the new orders are cautious. The caustic soda futures price is expected to continue the low - level trend, and the inventory has increased [7]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass has shown strength recently due to slight inventory reduction and cost increase. The high - inventory and weak - demand pattern continues. The soda ash has shown strength due to production reduction and cost promotion, but the long - term supply pressure remains [8].

塑料产业日报 2025-06-25 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 吨装置停车，部分装置重启，预计产量、产能利用率小幅下降。下游淡季延续，终端备货意愿低、对制品 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 提价抵触。成本方面，伊朗、以色列同意全面停火，近期国际油价大幅下挫。中东地缘因素影响逐渐减弱 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 ，短期L2509预计震荡走势，关注7170附近支撑与7330附近压力。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Report Overview - Research variety: Caustic soda [1] - Report cycle: Weekly - Date of report: June 23, 2025 - Researcher: He Ning Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda futures main - contract price continued to decline in a volatile manner this week, and the spot price also continued to fall. High - price transactions of caustic soda are difficult at present. The main downstream maintains a high purchase volume, while non - aluminum downstream remains on the sidelines. It is expected that the futures market may continue to operate weakly in the short term [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - This week, the caustic soda futures continued to fluctuate and consolidate. As of the reporting date, the closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2256 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 0.31%. The highest price was [not given], the lowest was [not given], the open interest was [not given] million lots, a decrease of [not given] lots from last week, and the trading volume was [not given] million lots, an increase of [not given] million lots from last week. The futures price maintained a narrow - range volatile downward pattern, with the decline rate decreasing compared to last week. Currently, the caustic soda futures price is at a relatively low level in history, and the number of registered warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is 0 [2][11] 3.2 Spot Market - Supply: The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.2%, a 0.3% increase from last week. Some enterprises in Central China, North China, and Northeast China temporarily reduced production or were under maintenance, with load decreasing; equipment in Northwest and East China resumed operation after maintenance, with load increasing [5] - Inventory: The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above across the country was 36.65 million tons, a decrease of 9.57% from last week [5] - Price: The main downstream alumina plants continuously lowered the purchase price of 32% caustic soda this week, other enterprises' transaction prices continued to follow the decline, the export price of high - concentration caustic soda declined, and the new order signing situation was poor, resulting in enterprises selling at reduced prices. The transaction price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.90% from last week; in Jiangsu, it was [not clear], a decrease of 1.04% [5][11] 3.3 Futures - Spot Combination Analysis - Spot market: The main downstream alumina plants continuously lowered the purchase price of 32% caustic soda, other enterprises' transaction prices continued to follow the decline, the export price of high - concentration caustic soda declined, and new order signing was poor, forcing enterprises to cut prices [11] - Futures market: The caustic soda futures price maintained a narrow - range volatile downward pattern, with the decline rate decreasing compared to last week. The current price is at a relatively low level in history, and the number of registered warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is 0 [11] 3.4 Associated Varieties Analysis - Upstream raw materials: The price of raw salt remained stable, and the coal price continued to decline in a volatile manner, causing the cost side to continue to decline [11] - Downstream: The operating rate of alumina increased slightly this week, but the overall incremental demand for caustic soda was limited. Non - aluminum downstream demand still showed no obvious increase, and the procurement of caustic soda was mainly for rigid demand [11]