Core Viewpoint - The global market is focusing on the next round of precious metal trends, with expectations that both gold and silver prices will continue to rise due to structural economic risks and ongoing expansionary fiscal policies in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Gold and Silver Market Dynamics - Gold prices are stabilizing above $3,300 per ounce, while silver is fluctuating above $36, indicating potential for further gains [1] - Ryan McIntyre from Sprott highlights increased attention on silver due to its recovering industrial demand and a declining gold-silver ratio, suggesting silver has room for a rebound [3] - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from over 100 in April to below 92, indicating silver's potential for price recovery [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. fiscal deficit is a fundamental macro backdrop supporting gold and silver prices, with federal debt surpassing $37 trillion and a new budget proposal expected to add $3 trillion in deficits over the next decade [4] - Concerns over the long-term stability of the dollar are rising as the U.S. government continues to run large deficits relative to GDP, prompting a shift of capital from equities to hard assets like gold and silver [4] - Key drivers for rising gold prices include dollar depreciation, rising inflation expectations, and global liquidity excess [4] Group 3: Economic Data and Inflation - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, but the divergence between wage growth and inflation trends has led to a reassessment of "stagflation" risks [5] - Gold is viewed as a natural hedge against inflation, with its price support becoming more solid amid ongoing inflation expectations [5] - Silver, with over 60% of its demand coming from industrial sectors, is expected to benefit from the recovery in industries such as renewable energy and electric vehicles [5] Group 4: Legislative Impact on Industrial Metals - The recent "Big and Beautiful" legislation in the U.S. significantly increases fiscal support for clean energy, manufacturing, and semiconductors, which will enhance demand for industrial metals like silver, copper, and platinum [6] - Silver's critical role in the photovoltaic industry is gaining market attention due to this legislative push [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may stabilize above $3,300 per ounce while silver could experience a rebound, with gold maintaining its strategic position in investment portfolios and silver serving as a tactical investment tool [8] - Key variables to monitor include Federal Reserve policy direction, U.S. inflation and employment data, global fiscal conditions, geopolitical risks, and changes in consumption and industrial cycles [8] Group 6: Investment Sentiment - The market is entering a slow bull phase driven by structural capital flows, with gold being the preferred choice due to its reserve asset attributes, while silver's dual financial and industrial characteristics present greater elasticity [9] - In the context of rising fiscal deficits, inflation risks, and complex economic data trends, both gold and silver are becoming critical options for investor asset allocation, with silver potentially emerging as a "dark horse" in the next precious metal rally [9]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. indices rose, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching new highs [1] - The Dow Jones increased by 344.11 points (0.77%) to 44828.53 points, the Nasdaq rose by 207.97 points (1.02%) to 20601.10 points, and the S&P 500 gained 51.93 points (0.83%) to 6279.35 points [1] Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the expected 106,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% [6] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, indicating reduced inflationary pressure [6] - The ISM services index rose to 50.8 in June, indicating a return to expansion after a contraction in May [7] Tax Legislation Impact - The U.S. House of Representatives passed President Trump's large-scale tax and spending bill, which is expected to be signed into law [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the tax bill could complicate efforts to reduce fiscal deficits and debt burdens in the coming years, potentially increasing the deficit by $3.3 trillion [8][9] Trade Deficit - The U.S. trade deficit widened in May to $71.5 billion, a 19% increase from April, driven by a larger decline in exports compared to imports [10] Company News - Lucid Motors reported a record delivery of 3,309 vehicles in Q2, a 38% year-over-year increase, with total deliveries for the first half of the year reaching 6,418, up nearly 50% from the previous year [11] - The growth in Lucid's deliveries is attributed to the rapid expansion of the global electric vehicle market and successful brand positioning [11]

Group 1: Employment and Monetary Policy - JPMorgan expects the U.S. employment population to increase by 110,000 in June, down from 139,000 in May, with the unemployment rate projected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%, potentially reigniting concerns about economic growth [1] - Poor non-farm payroll data could pressure the Federal Reserve to accelerate its rate-cutting timeline, as inflation remains distant from targets, necessitating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] Group 2: Fiscal Deficit and Market Sentiment - Deutsche Bank's survey indicates only 12% of respondents believe the U.S. fiscal deficit will significantly impact the market next year, suggesting that most market participants do not view the fiscal deficit as a major short-term concern [1] - Over time, more investors expect the fiscal deficit to have a significant market impact, with only 8% believing it will have no effect during this period [1] Group 3: Stablecoin and Treasury Demand - Citigroup argues that the growth of stablecoins will not significantly boost demand for U.S. Treasuries in the short term, as new stablecoins may come from existing bank deposits or money market funds, leading to no net increase in Treasury demand [2] - The stablecoin market is projected to reach $1.6 trillion by 2030, with potential incremental Treasury demand from cash reallocation and foreign deposits [2] Group 4: UK and Eurozone Economic Indicators - XTB analysts note increased volatility in UK government bond yields since 2022, attributed to high government debt levels, with a need for public spending to return to pre-pandemic levels to stabilize the bond market [3] - Eurozone's June services PMI and composite PMI data indicate the longest low-growth phase in 27 years, with new orders contracting for 13 consecutive months, reflecting weak domestic and external demand [3] Group 5: U.S. Treasury Supply and Economic Outlook - UBS Global Wealth Management reports that the supply of long-term U.S. Treasuries should remain manageable, despite concerns over increased issuance to finance federal debt [4] - Analysts express caution regarding potential rate cuts in the U.S., despite pressure from President Trump and disappointing employment data, suggesting that rate cuts may not effectively address current economic issues [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of gold and silver rebounded. The unexpected decrease in the US ADP employment in June intensified the market's expectation of an early interest rate cut by the Fed this year. The approaching deadline for the suspension of reciprocal tariffs made the market uneasy, and the "Big and Beautiful" bill raised the expectation of fiscal deficit, leading to a weak US dollar. Although Fed officials continued to maintain a wait - and - see attitude and mentioned the possibility of a rate cut as early as July with pre - conditions, the progress of trade negotiations was limited. The market might be paving the way for future easing, and if tariff policies became clear, the expectation of rate cut would be further clarified. Gold faced hesitation in upward movement due to its high price, and investors should be vigilant about the uncertainty of Trump's policies and the hype of tariff escalation as the July tariff suspension deadline approached [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2508,沪金2512,沪银2508, and沪银2512 were 775.90, 780.04, 8830.00, and 8872.00 respectively, with daily increases of 2.16 (0.28%), 2.04 (0.26%), 83.00 (0.95%), and 87.00 (0.99%) [2]. - **Position and Volume**: The positions of沪金2508,沪金2512,沪银2508, and沪银2512 were 103401, 83453, 249023, and 174093 respectively, and the trading volumes were 73175, 21045, 323881, and 34757 respectively [2]. - **Spot Premium**: The spot premiums of沪金2508,沪金2512,沪银2508, and沪银2512 were - 5.57, - 9.71, - 93.00, and - 135.00 respectively [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and London Gold (in USD/oz) were 770.33, 773.00, and 3356.93 respectively, with daily changes of - 1.71 (- 0.22%), 4.21 (0.55%), and 19.6 (0.59%). The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 8737.00, with a daily change of - 68.00 (- 0.77%), and the previous closing price of London Silver (in USD/oz) was 36.55, with a daily change of 0.53 (1.48%) [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2506,沪银2512 - 沪银2506, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver were 4.14, 42, 88.17, 7.14, and 7.44 respectively, compared with previous values of 4.26, 38, 87.68, 7.20, and 7.60 [2]. Inventory - The current inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver were 18,456 kg, 1,338,659 kg, 37,048,200 units, and 500,183,447 units respectively, with changes of 3.00 kg, - 185.00 kg, no change, and - 1026742 units compared to the previous values [2]. Related Markets - **Indices and Rates**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and USD/CNY were 96.7788, 6227.42, 4.3, 69.15, and 7.1617 respectively, with daily changes of 0.14%, 0.47%, 0.94%, 0.01%, and 0.00% [2]. - **Derivatives**: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF, SLV Silver ETF, CFTC speculators' net position in silver, and CFTC speculators' net position in gold were 44315 tons, 44315 tons, 33486 units, and 32895 units respectively, with daily changes of 1.00 ton, 1.00 ton, 481 units, and - 1451 units [2]. Macro News - The US ADP employment in June unexpectedly decreased by 33,000, the first negative growth since March 2023, far below the expected increase of 98,000. Service - sector employment decreased by 66,000 in June, the largest decline since the pandemic. The US interest - rate futures fully priced in the Fed's rate - cut expectation in September [3]. - EU Commission President von der Leyen met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Brussels. Wang Yi said that the upcoming China - EU leaders' meeting was an important one at a critical juncture. China hoped to summarize the past 50 - year experience of China - EU relations, plan the future 50 - year cooperation, and send positive signals. China was willing to deepen economic and trade cooperation with the EU [3]. - The US Department of Defense said that the Iranian nuclear facilities were estimated to have been destroyed, and the Iranian nuclear program was postponed by about 1 - 2 years [3]. - US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. Vietnam's exports to the US would be subject to a 20% tariff, and trans - shipped goods would be subject to a 40% tariff. Vietnam agreed to cancel all taxes on imported US goods [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices have significantly rebounded due to expectations of an expanding U.S. fiscal deficit, driven by Trump's "big and beautiful" legislation [1] - The Senate has narrowly passed a tax and spending bill, which is expected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by $2.8 trillion to $3.3 trillion over the next decade, depending on the version [1] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve are also contributing factors to the rise in gold prices, with the dollar index hitting a three-year low of 96.37 [1][2] Group 2 - Market participants are divided on the outlook for interest rate cuts, with some believing that weak economic data and dovish Fed comments increase the likelihood of early cuts, while others point to a strong job market and inflation risks delaying cuts [2] - Ongoing global trade tensions and geopolitical risks are expected to maintain gold's safe-haven appeal, with short-term price fluctuations anticipated as the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline approaches [2] - The upcoming U.S. CPI data on July 15 will be crucial in assessing inflation trends and could influence market expectations for rate cuts, potentially driving gold prices higher if core CPI growth is weaker than expected [2]

Group 1 - The cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility on July 2, with Bitcoin dropping over 1.5%, Ethereum falling more than 3%, and Cardano decreasing by over 5% [1] - The total number of liquidated positions in the cryptocurrency market exceeded 100,000 in the past 24 hours, with 70% of these being long positions [1] - The stock market also faced selling pressure, with the Nikkei 225 index dropping over 1% and the Korean Composite Index falling nearly 2% during intraday trading, although both indices saw a reduction in their losses by the close [1] Group 2 - U.S. stock index futures, including the Nasdaq 100, initially rose but later turned to decline [1] - The market reaction was influenced by the U.S. Senate's passage of Trump's "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill on July 1, raising concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit and prompting investors to sell risk assets [1]

Group 1 - The US dollar index has experienced its worst start in nearly fifty years, dropping below 97 due to concerns over trade friction, fiscal deficits, and economic slowdown [1][3] - Unexpectedly high job vacancies reported by the US Labor Department indicate resilient labor demand, while a significant tax and spending bill passed by the Senate has led to a rapid increase in long-term yields [1][3] - The market is reassessing the risks of a "too bearish" outlook on the dollar, with the dollar recovering nearly half of its losses against the yen and Swiss franc following the data release [1][3] Group 2 - Despite debt pressures casting a shadow over the dollar, short positions have reached extreme levels since the beginning of the year [3] - If the fiscal bill passes in the House, market focus will shift from the deficit to short-term demand stimulation and corporate profit boosts, potentially supporting the dollar [3] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has maintained a wait-and-see approach but has not ruled out further rate cuts this year, creating a balance between bullish and bearish sentiments for the dollar [3] Group 3 - The ten-year US Treasury yield has returned to 4.25%, indicating that traders are preparing for a re-inflation scenario driven by fiscal stimulus [4] - Key upcoming events include the tariff negotiations on July 9, which could significantly impact the dollar's performance depending on the outcomes [4] - The market is advised to be cautious of overly bearish positions on the dollar, with short-term strategies favoring buying the dollar against high beta currencies [4] Group 4 - The future of the dollar depends on three factors: whether the trade window closes, the resilience of US data, and any adjustments in the Federal Reserve's language [5] - July is expected to be a month of both risks and opportunities for the dollar, with potential for recovery if conditions tilt in favor of bullish sentiment [5]

近日，中国人民银行发布《贵金属和宝石从业机构反洗钱和反恐怖融资管理办法》（下称《办法》）。其 中提到，从业机构开展人民币10万元以上（含10万元）或者等值外币现金交易的，应当根据《办法》规定 履行反洗钱义务。 客户单笔或者日累计金额人民币10万元以上（含10万元）或者等值外币现金交易的，从业机构应当按照规定在 交易发生之日起5个工作日内向中国反洗钱监测分析中心提交大额交易报告。《办法》自2025年8月1日起施 行。 央行：8月1日起，现金买黄金超10万元需上报 日前，中国人民银行发布《贵金属和宝石从业机构反洗钱和反恐怖融资管理办法》。其中提到，从业机构开展 人民币10万元以上（含10万元）或者等值外币现金交易的，应当根据《办法》规定履行反洗钱义务。客户单笔 或者日累计金额人民币10万元以上（含10万元）或者等值外币现金交易，从业机构应当勤勉尽责，遵循"了解 你的客户"原则，根据客户特征和交易活动的性质、洗钱风险状况，开展客户尽职调查。 《办法》提到，客户单笔或者日累计金额人民币10万元以上（含10万元）或者等值外币现金交易的，从业机构 应当按照规定在交易发生之日起5个工作日内向中国反洗钱监测分析中心提交大额交 ...

截至7月2日亚盘早市，现货黄金延续隔夜涨势，价格攀升至3339.53美元/盎司，较前一交易日上涨0.02%，盘中最高触及 3344.92美元/盎司，创一周以来新高。 特朗普政府力推的"大而美"税收与支出法案于7月1日获参议院通过，计划十年内减税4万亿美元并提高债务上限5万亿美 元。这一政策虽旨在刺激经济，但美国国会预算办公室（CBO）预测将导致未来十年联邦赤字增加2.8万亿美元，市场对 财政可持续性的担忧加剧。美国银行（BofA）指出，赤字扩大可能引发利率波动和美元走弱，进一步强化黄金作为抗通 胀工具的需求。与此同时，美元指数受减税政策引发的财政赤字担忧拖累，跌至96.7下方，为2022年2月以来最低水平， 为黄金提供了强势支撑。 | 美元指数 | | | | | | の 已添加 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ಳು | FX DINIW √ √ 外汇 ■ Level1基础行情 | | | | | | | 96.674000 +0.0360 +0.0400% | | | | | | | | 交易中 07-02 11:26 北京时间 | | | | ...

Macroeconomy - The central bank plans to intensify monetary policy regulation, maintain ample liquidity, and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply. It aims to explore the normalization of "swap facilities and stock repurchase and increase re - loans" and support securities, funds, and insurance companies to participate in market stability. The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7% (+0.2%), and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5% (+0.2%). However, the PMI of small enterprises dropped to 47.3% (-2.0%)[2] - The closing prices of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices increased by 0.21%, 0.17%, 0.33%, and 0.28% respectively compared to the previous day. The basis of IM/IC expanded significantly, while that of IH/IF changed moderately[2] - The four major indices show a pattern of multiple strengths and few weaknesses. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long on small and medium - cap index futures on dips, and the opportunity of band trading for large - cap index futures[2] Crude Oil - The situation in the Middle East has eased. The market is speculating about the Fed's potential interest rate cut in July and the expected production increase at the OPEC+ meeting in July. There are reports that Saudi Arabia may seek to increase production to regain lost market share[3] - Trump tweeted that he would lower oil prices and encourage the US to invest heavily in new oil fields. The number of US oil wells has dropped to the lowest level since November 2021. After the cooling of the Iran - Israel conflict, the risk premium has declined significantly, leading to a large - scale decline in crude oil prices. Although the summer peak season for crude oil is approaching, and US crude oil and refined product inventories continue to decline while refining activities increase, providing some support to oil prices, in the long - term, the price center of crude oil will move downward[3] - Attention should be paid to the support level of around $65 per barrel for the WTI main contract[3] Gold - In May, the year - on - year core PCE was 2.7% (previous value 2.6%, expected 2.6%), and the month - on - month was 0.2% (previous value 0.1%); the year - on - year overall PCE was 2.3%, and the month - on - month was 0.1%, both in line with expectations. The final value of the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in June was 60.7 (previous value 60.3), and the long - term inflation expectation dropped to 4%. The progress of trade negotiations has weakened the demand for hedging[4] - Powell's congressional testimony released a dovish stance, indicating that if tariffs do not cause a sharp rise in inflation, there may be an interest rate cut in September. The market's pricing of the probability of an interest rate cut in September has risen to 78% (CME data), but there are still differences in the stickiness of inflation[4] - Spot gold may test the resistance area of $3295 - $3306 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls and PMI data in June and the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" bill[6] Silver - The "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed by the Senate on June 29. The CBO estimates that the US fiscal deficit will increase by $2.77 trillion in the next decade. The Fed has kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%. The median interest rate expectation for 2025 is 3.9% (the same as in March), and the expectations for 2026 - 2027 have been raised to 3.6%/3.4%. Seven voting members support no interest rate cut in 2025, and Powell emphasized that "tariff inflation is not a one - time shock"[7] - There is a certain possibility that the Fed will lower the policy interest rate in the second half of the year. When the Fed's easing expectation increases, the international silver price will show a stronger trend. The key support level is around $35 per ounce. Investors need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls data and PMI in June and be vigilant against the "hawkish surprise" that may suppress the easing expectation[7] Chemicals PTA - The spot price in East China is 4990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 190 yuan/ton. In July, PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 78.61%, a decrease of 2.94% month - on - month. The spot processing fee is 427.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 106.674 yuan/ton month - on - month. In mid - to - late June, 1.8 million tons of equipment entered the maintenance cycle (accounting for 3.2% of the total capacity), supporting the short - term de - stocking process. However, attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new devices in July[8] - The polyester factory load is maintained at 88.63%, a decrease of 0.61% month - on - month, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load is 59.01%, a decrease of 1.66% month - on - month, and the terminal order days are 9.06 days, a decrease of 0.36 days month - on - month. The textile and clothing industry is entering the off - season, the demand side is continuously sluggish, and some enterprises have the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being[8] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is 4330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis is 57 yuan/ton. The overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 60.4%, an increase of 1.4% month - on - month, and the coal - based operating rate is 57.26%, an increase of 0.95% month - on - month. The weekly output is 36.97 tons, an increase of 0.85 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory in the main ports in East China has decreased by 3.13 tons to 50.57 tons and has been de - stocking for three consecutive weeks[9] - Affected by the conflict in the Middle East, 3 sets of equipment with a total capacity of 1.35 million tons in Iran have stopped production, while the restart plans of Saudi and Malaysian devices have boosted the import expectation. The polyester factory load and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load have both decreased, and the textile market has entered the off - season with some terminal industries having the expectation of reducing production. Short - term attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances, and the price will mainly move in a range. Radical investors can go short on rallies, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the pressure of increased imports[9] PVC - The mainstream spot price of Type 5 PVC in East China is 4740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 4980 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month; the price difference between ethylene and electricity is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month[10] - The capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises last week was 78.09%, a decrease of 0.53% month - on - month and 1.64% year - on - year. The domestic downstream products enterprises have not improved significantly, and the transactions are still mainly for rigid demand. As of June 26, the PVC social inventory has increased by 1.03% to 57.52 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 38.06% year - on - year. The PVC fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price will still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[10][11] PP - The mainstream prices of PP raffia in North China, East China, and South China are 7174 yuan/ton, 7176 yuan/ton, and 7298 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 4 yuan/ton, 14 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton[12] - The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene last week was 79.30%, a decrease of 0.54% month - on - month. The domestic polypropylene production was 78.92 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons compared with last week, a growth rate of 0.23%, and an increase of 14.52 tons compared with the same period last year, a growth rate of 22.55%. The average start - up rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries has decreased by 0.58 percentage points to 49.05%. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polypropylene production enterprises was 58.50 tons, a decrease of 2.26 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.72%. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[12] Plastic - The mainstream spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 7354 yuan/ton, 7521 yuan/ton, and 7614 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 22 yuan/ton, 42 yuan/ton, and 23 yuan/ton[14] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 76.44%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points compared with the previous period. The average start - up rate of downstream products of LLDPE/LDPE in China last week decreased by 0.48% compared with the previous period. As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 44.82 tons, a decrease of 5.12 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.25%, and the inventory trend continued to decline. The current fundamentals of plastics have not improved significantly, and the price will mainly fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term[14] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1210 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The overall operating rate of soda ash last week was 82.21%, a decrease of 4.25% month - on - month, and the soda ash production was 71.68 tons, a decrease of 3.69 tons month - on - month, a decline of 4.90%. There were device shutdowns for maintenance in Qinghai and Shaanxi, and the production of Inner Mongolia Boyuan was gradually stabilizing. The supply side still has fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the summer maintenance situation[15] - Last week, the manufacturer's inventory was 176.69 tons, an increase of 4.02 tons month - on - month, a growth rate of 2.33%. The social inventory is showing a downward trend, with the total amount approaching 280,000 tons, a decrease of more than 30,000 tons. The demand side performance is average. The middle and lower reaches replenish inventory for rigid demand for low - price goods, but still have a resistance to high - price goods. The soda ash market has limited new driving forces except for the reduction in supply. It is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea. Attention should be paid to market sentiment, inventory changes, device maintenance, and unexpected disturbances[15] Glass - The market price of 5mm large - size glass in the Shahe area is 1130 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton month - on - month. There are some differences among regions. The operating rate of float glass last week was 75.14%, a decrease of 0.26% month - on - month, and the weekly glass production was 109.09 tons, a decrease of 0.26 tons month - on - month, a decline of 0.24%. The glass production line has changed frequently recently, and the supply has decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the changes in the production line[16] - Last week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 69.216 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 671,000 weight - boxes month - on - month, a decline of 0.96%, and the inventory has decreased slightly but the amplitude is limited. The demand side is still weak, and there is no positive driving force. The glass market has limited driving forces, and it is recommended to treat it with a bottom - range oscillation idea in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in enterprise inventory, production line changes, and market sentiment[16] Rubber - The spot prices of domestic whole - latex, Thai RSS3, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber, and No. 20 rubber are 13,950 yuan/ton, 19,550 yuan/ton, 14,600 yuan/ton, and 13,600 yuan/ton respectively. The raw material prices in Hat Yai are 66.09 baht/kg for RSS3, 55.5 baht/kg for latex, 47.95 baht/kg for cup lump, and 61.77 baht/kg for raw rubber[17] - There is an expectation of a缓和 in the trade war, and the Fed has shown some signs of a possible interest rate cut in July. Rubber is in a rebound window with improved sentiment. The domestic whole - latex has started to be harvested, and the production areas in Yunnan have fully started harvesting, while the latex in Hainan has started to increase in volume. The Southeast Asian production areas have fully started harvesting, and the supply is generally loose. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose. The start - up rate of downstream tire enterprises has decreased for semi - steel tires and increased slightly for all - steel tires. The market is speculating on macro - narratives such as the trade war. The US tariff collection on automobiles and household appliances may seriously suppress the global demand for rubber. Attention should be paid to the start - up situation of the rubber downstream[17] Methanol - The spot price in Zhejiang is 2590 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in Xinjiang is 1625 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Anhui is 2310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The closing price of the main methanol futures contract MA509 is 2384 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.13% compared with the previous trading day[18] - The total port inventory has increased to 67.05 tons, an increase of 8.41 tons compared with the previous period. The domestic methanol industry operating rate has reached 91.31%. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the reconstruction work in Iran has started, and the shut - down devices are expected to gradually resume production. However, the problem of natural gas shortage in Iran may continue until winter, and there is still uncertainty in the far - month supply. The start - up rate of MTO devices has dropped to 87.41%, and the start - up rate of MTBE has rebounded to 64.40%. The demand for traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde and dimethyl ether is still weak. The price of steam coal is stable and slightly strong, but it has limited support for the cost of methanol. The short - term futures price will mainly fluctuate. After the geopolitical conflict eases, attention should be paid to the progress of Iran's supply recovery and the accumulation of domestic inventory[18] Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA's June supply and demand report lowered the global and US ending inventories, but the overall support of the report is limited. The domestic corn market is in the window period of the alternation of old and new grains, and the remaining grain is being continuously consumed. The decreasing inventory in the main production areas has supported the reluctance of traders to sell. However, affected by the substitution effect of wheat and the news of policy grain auctions, the upward momentum of prices may be weakened. The downstream procurement of corn is cautious, and the consumption is weak. The low breeding profit has led to the on - demand procurement of breeding enterprises, and the low operating rate of corn deep - processing enterprises due to losses has limited the boosting effect on downstream demand[19] - The main corn contract is in an upward channel, but it is under pressure from the resistance of the upward channel in the short term and has retraced. Attention should be paid to the support level of 2350 yuan/ton at the lower edge of the channel[20] Peanut - The spot prices in different regions vary. Currently, it is the peanut planting season, and the market expects that the domestic peanut planting area will increase year - on - year in 2025. If the weather is normal during this period, the peanut price in the far - month may be under pressure. In the short term, the peanut market has entered the inventory consumption period, and the import of peanuts has decreased, resulting in a low inventory level in each link of the market. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the low inventory may push the peanut price up due to the replenishment demand[21] -