Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: On hold [4] Core View - The domestic lead ore supply is still relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. The market is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Since the National Day, downstream demand has been better than expected, leading to significant inventory reduction in China. However, with the overall adjustment of the non-ferrous sector, lead prices may temporarily enter a volatile pattern [3] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Spot - On October 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$33.80/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 30 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1] Futures - On October 28, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,520 yuan/ton, closed at 17,355 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 57,175 lots, a decrease of 24,547 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 77,635 lots, a decrease of 6,760 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,540 yuan/ton and a low of 17,340 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,315 yuan/ton and closed at 17,370 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On October 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 229,675 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The absolute price strategy is neutral, and the option strategy is to wait and see [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways with a Downward Bias [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [5] - Thermal Coal: No Strategy Suggested [6] Core Views - Steel: There is a game between macro expectations and real supply - demand. Industry's weak reality has limited improvement. Short - term steel prices will maintain a sideways trend. Attention should be paid to subsequent steel mill production cuts and demand destocking [1]. - Iron Ore: Market sentiment has improved, and prices have risen slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, supply growth expectations are deepening. Future steel contradictions need to be resolved through production cuts, which may lead to weaker iron ore supply - demand and pressure on prices [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coke's second - round price increase has fully landed, and the supply of coking coal is recovering slowly. The supply - demand contradiction of coke has eased, and the supply of coking coal is still tight [4]. - Thermal Coal: The cost of coal transportation has increased, and the coal price in the production area has weakened. Short - term demand support is insufficient, and the supply pattern will remain loose in the long - term [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,091 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,305 yuan/ton. Today's spot steel trading was generally weak, and prices made up for yesterday's increase. Building material inventory is being destocked, iron - making water production is gradually decreasing, steel mill profits are shrinking, and production continues to increase. The production - sales contradiction of plates is large, and inventory pressure is obvious [1]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading should take a sideways approach; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [1]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices continued to rise. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties were strong. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports across the country was 892,000 tons, a 22.19% increase from the previous day; the total transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.668 million tons (12 transactions), an 87.42% increase from the previous day (with a mine transaction volume of 1.158 million tons). The current steel mill production cuts are limited, and iron - making water production remains high, ensuring a certain level of ore consumption. In the future, steel contradictions need to be resolved through production cuts, which may lead to weaker iron ore supply - demand [2]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading should take a sideways - with - a - downward - bias approach; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The second - round price increase of coke has fully landed, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 130 yuan/ton. The supply of coking coal is recovering slowly, and the production of some local mines is still low. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is around 1,130 - 1,140 yuan/ton [4]. - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke should take a sideways approach; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [5]. Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production area, supply is gradually recovering. The demand from the metallurgical and chemical industries is okay, and long - term contract customers' shipments are stable. Most coal mines have balanced production and sales, and the pit - mouth coal price is rising. At ports, inventory has reached a historical high, inquiry enthusiasm has declined, downstream demand is low, and prices are being pressured, resulting in low trading activity. The import market is running steadily with a downward bias [6]. - Strategy: No strategy is suggested due to the severe lack of futures liquidity [6].

Report Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage strategy: Long spread for SHFE aluminum [9] Core Views - The overall domestic supply - demand fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum remain unchanged. Overseas production cuts and macro - positive factors limit the depth of price corrections. The upward space for aluminum prices may open if inventory reduction is smooth [6]. - Electrolytic aluminum plants are actively purchasing alumina, but alumina prices lack upward momentum due to cost and supply factors. The current price valuation is low, and uncertainties around the Guinea election need attention [7][8]. Summary by Category Aluminum Spot and Futures - **Spot prices**: On October 28, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,160 yuan/ton, Central Plains A00 aluminum was 21,030 yuan/ton, and Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,070 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures prices**: The opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract on October 28, 2025, was 21,315 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 21,140 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 187,481 lots, and the open interest was 285,793 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of October 28, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 626,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 66,243 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 465,650 tons, a decrease of 3,625 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot and Futures - **Spot prices**: On October 28, 2025, the alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou were 2,845 yuan/ton, 2,790 yuan/ton, 2,865 yuan/ton, 3,025 yuan/ton, and 3,035 yuan/ton respectively. The FOB price of Australian alumina was 319 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Futures prices**: The opening price of the alumina main contract on October 28, 2025, was 2,829 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,817 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.28%). The trading volume was 314,332 lots, and the open interest was 389,764 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy - **Prices**: On October 28, 2025, the procurement prices of Baotai civil - grade scrap aluminum and mechanical scrap aluminum were 16,700 yuan/ton and 16,900 yuan/ton respectively, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,300 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,700 tons [4]. - **Cost and profit**: The theoretical total cost was 20,703 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 97 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis - **Electrolytic aluminum**: Overseas production cuts, stable consumption, and macro - positive factors limit the depth of price corrections. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction rhythm [6]. - **Alumina**: Electrolytic aluminum plants are actively purchasing, but prices are under pressure due to cost and supply factors. The price valuation is low, and uncertainties around the Guinea election need attention [7][8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, polyolefins followed the crude oil trend and declined slightly today. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily released. Currently, the supply - demand pressure of polyolefins is temporarily limited, and the market may start to fluctuate after a short - term rebound [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market LL Futures - The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6985, 7062, and 7101 respectively, with price drops of - 39, - 28, and - 18, and percentage drops of - 0.56%, - 0.39%, and - 0.25% compared to two days ago. Trading volumes were 220120, 21981, and 485, and open interests were 519487, 66606, and 1369, with changes of - 4375, 114, and 214 respectively. The spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 77, - 39, and 116, compared to previous values of - 66, - 29, and 95 [2] PP Futures - The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6657, 6734, and 6737 respectively, with price drops of - 42, - 34, and - 33, and percentage drops of - 0.63%, - 0.50%, and - 0.49% compared to two days ago. Trading volumes were 228673, 27355, and 1137, and open interests were 611345, 134413, and 6839, with changes of 2998, 3576, and 98 respectively. The spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 77, - 3, and 80, compared to previous values of - 69, - 2, and 71 [2] Raw Material and Spot Market Raw Materials - The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2245 yuan/ton, 6010 yuan/ton, 535 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6480 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2271 yuan/ton, 6025 yuan/ton, 534 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6480 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7000 - 7500 yuan/ton, 6950 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7500 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous prices of 7000 - 7450 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7500 yuan/ton. For PP, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous prices of 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton [2] News - On Tuesday (October 28), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.15 per barrel, down $1.16 or 1.89% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.76 - $61.50. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.4 per barrel, down $1.22 or 1.86% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64 - $65.76 [2]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View Short - term macro environment is favorable, and strong raw material prices support rubber prices. Follow - up attention should be paid to raw material output during the peak season in major producing areas and macro changes. If raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward space; if not, the rubber price is expected to run around 15,000 - 15,500 [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 28, the price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai remained unchanged at 14,750. The basis of whole - milk rubber increased by 20 to - 610, with a 3.17% increase. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained at 15,000. The price of cup rubber in the international market increased by 0.75 to 53.15 Thai baht/kg, with a 1.43% increase. The raw material price in Hainan increased by 300 to 13,100, with a 2.34% increase [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 10 to 120, with a - 7.69% decrease; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 10 to - 22, with a 15.38% increase [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 2.0 to 458.8 (in ten - tons), with a - 0.43% decrease; Indonesia's production decreased by 8.5 to 189.0 (in ten - tons), with a - 4.30% decrease; India's production increased by 5.0 to 50.0 (in ten - tons), with an 11.11% increase; China's production increased by 12.2 to 113.7 (in ten - tons). The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires and all - steel tires increased. In August, domestic tire production increased by 859.0 to 10,295.4 (in ten - thousands), with a 9.10% increase. In September, tire export volume decreased by 671.0 to 5,630.0, with a - 10.65% decrease. In August, the total import volume of natural rubber increased by 7.5 to 59.59 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a 14.41% increase. In September, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 8.0 to 74.0 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a 12.12% increase [2]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory decreased by 5,254 to 432,229 tons, with a - 1.20% decrease. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 2,521 to 42,640, with a 6.28% increase [2]. Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View For soda ash, the overall supply - demand pattern is still bearish, but previous phased negative factors are basically exhausted. It is recommended to stop profit on previous short positions and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds. For glass, the long - term industry needs capacity clearance, but previous negative factors are basically realized. It is recommended to exit previous short positions and look for short - term long opportunities [4]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: On October 29, the prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The price of glass 2505 increased by 17 to 1263, with a 1.36% increase; the price of glass 2509 increased by 9 to 1343, with a 0.67% increase [4]. - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The price of soda ash 2505 decreased by 6 to 1331, with a - 0.45% decrease; the price of soda ash 2509 decreased by 6 to 1384, with a - 0.45% decrease [4]. - **Supply Volume**: On October 24, the operating rate of soda ash increased by 2.88 percentage points to 88.41%, with a 3.37% increase; the weekly output of soda ash increased by 2.5 to 77.08 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a 3.37% increase; the daily melting volume of float glass increased by 0.2 to 16.13 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a 1.16% increase [4]. - **Inventory**: On October 24, glass factory inventory increased by 346.9 to 6,282.4 (in ten - thousands of weight - products), with a 5.84% increase; soda ash factory inventory increased by 6.0 to 165.98 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a 3.74% increase; soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory increased by 2.7 to 69.91 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a 4.05% increase [4]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rates of new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area changed to - 0.09%, 0.05%, - 0.22%, and - 6.55% respectively [4]. Group 3: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The log futures market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. Follow - up attention should be paid to the impact of China - US economic and trade consultations on import cost expectations and changes in spot prices [5]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 28, the price of log 2601 decreased by 1 to 786 yuan/cubic meter. The prices of 3.9A small, medium, and large radiata pine in Rizhao Port and 4A small, medium, and large radiata pine in Taicang Port remained unchanged [5]. - **Supply**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the number of pre - arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports increased by 4 to 16, with a 33% week - on - week increase; the arrival volume increased by 8.5 to about 53.3 (in ten - thousands of cubic meters), with a 19% week - on - week increase [5]. - **Demand**: As of October 24, the national total inventory of coniferous logs decreased by 8 to 284 (in ten - thousands of cubic meters), and the daily average outbound volume increased by 0.12 to 6.44 (in ten - thousands of cubic meters) [5]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View Industrial silicon supply increase pressures prices, but there is also cost support. It is expected to be in a low - level volatile state, with the main price fluctuation range at 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price of the 2601 contract drops to around 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton, consider going long at low prices [6]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On October 28, the prices of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 and SI4210 industrial silicon remained unchanged. The basis of SI5530 increased by 10 to 395, with a 2.60% increase; the basis of SI4210 increased by 10 to - 105, with an 8.70% increase [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 10 to 25, with a 66.67% increase; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 20 to - 25, with a - 400.00% decrease [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Nationally, industrial silicon production increased by 3.51 to 42.08 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a 9.10% increase; the operating rate increased by 6.07 to 61.94, with a 10.86% increase. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 1.29 to 21.02 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a - 5.78% decrease; polysilicon production decreased by 0.17 to 13.00 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a - 1.29% decrease [6]. - **Inventory Change**: As of a certain period, Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.01 to 10.84 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a - 0.09% decrease; Yunnan's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.02 to 3.41 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a - 0.58% decrease; social inventory decreased by 0.30 to 55.90 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a - 0.53% decrease [6]. Group 5: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View Polysilicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices fluctuate downward. It is mainly in a high - level volatile state. Attention should be paid to the establishment of platform companies, production control, and whether there is an increase in demand - side orders. After the futures rise sharply, the discount is repaired, and further significant increases need to consider the hedging and arbitrage space of upstream enterprises [7]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 28, the average prices of N - type re -投料 and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The basis of N - type material increased by 145 to - 1375, with a 9.54% increase [7]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The price of the main contract decreased by 145 to 54,355, with a - 0.27% decrease. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract increased by 260 to - 2090, with an 11.06% increase [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 0.15 to 2.95 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a - 4.84% decrease; monthly polysilicon production decreased by 0.17 to 13.00 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a - 1.29% decrease. Monthly polysilicon import volume increased by 0.03 to 0.13 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a 28.46% increase; export volume decreased by 0.08 to 0.21 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a - 28.16% decrease [7]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.5 to 25.80 (in ten - thousands of tons), with a 1.98% increase; silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.16 to 18.47 (in GW), with a 6.70% increase [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily market analysis and trading suggestions for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, etc. Each product has its own market situation, trend, and influencing factors. For example, some products are in a high - level or low - level shock state, some are affected by supply - demand relationships, and others are influenced by macro - events [2][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Conditions**: PX is in a high - level shock market; PTA's valuation declines as oil prices fall; MEG is in a short - term shock market [2][4]. - **Data**: PX's main contract closed at 6618 yesterday, down 8; PTA's main contract closed at 4614, down 2; MEG's main contract closed at 4069, down 40 [5]. - **Market Dynamics**: PX prices fell today due to concerns about weak demand, while some PTA and PET producers' planned meetings may affect the market. A 700,000 - ton PTA device in Taiwan, China, has restarted. The planned arrival volume at the main ports for MEG from October 27 to November 2 is about 198,000 tons [6][7]. - **Suggestions**: For PX, go short on PXN at high levels. For PTA, pay attention to the results of the anti - involution meeting, and its processing fee is expected to expand in the short term. For MEG, there may be a short - term rebound, but the height is expected to be limited [8][9]. 3.2 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Conditions**: Due to the weakness of butadiene, the price of cis - butadiene rubber is under pressure [2][10]. - **Data**: The main contract of cis - butadiene rubber closed at 10,805 yesterday, down 190. The price of butadiene in Jiangsu's mainstream market is 7,900, down 200 [10]. - **Analysis**: The domestic butadiene market continues to decline, and the short - term weakness of butadiene drives down the dynamic valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber. It is expected to have a wide - range shock pattern of capital game in the short term, and the medium - term price center will gradually move down [11][12]. 3.3 LLDPE - **Market Conditions**: Mainly in a shock state [2][13]. - **Data**: The L2601 contract closed at 6985 yesterday, down 0.20% [13]. - **Analysis**: The decline in crude oil prices affects PE. The rigid demand of downstream industries supports the market, and the inventory is decreasing. However, the supply pressure will gradually increase in the future, and the market is in a shock situation [13][14]. 3.4 PP - **Market Conditions**: Stop falling in the short term and fluctuate in the medium term [2][17]. - **Data**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6657 yesterday, down 0.37% [17]. - **Analysis**: Multiple factors cause downward pressure on PP, but recent oil price rebounds and supply - side production cuts lead to a short - term rebound. In the long term, it may be in a weak - shock pattern [18]. 3.5 Caustic Soda - **Market Conditions**: The far - month valuation is suppressed [2][23]. - **Data**: The 01 - contract futures price is 2341, and the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 780 [23]. - **Analysis**: The procurement price of alumina manufacturers has been reduced, and the high - inventory and low - profit situation of the alumina industry suppresses the valuation of caustic soda. The cost of caustic soda has also decreased recently [21][22]. 3.6 Glass - **Market Conditions**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][25]. - **Data**: The FG601 contract closed at 1113 yesterday, up 1.83% [26]. - **Analysis**: The domestic float - glass market price is mainly stable, with slight adjustments in some regions, and the overall sales are average [26]. 3.7 Methanol - **Market Conditions**: Under shock pressure [2][28]. - **Data**: The main contract of methanol closed at 2,241 yesterday, down 27 [29]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental pressure of methanol is large, but the valuation is moderately low. Affected by macro - events, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the medium - term price center will move down [31][32]. 3.8 Urea - **Market Conditions**: Spot trading weakens, and pressure gradually increases [2][33]. - **Data**: The main contract of urea closed at 1,635 yesterday, down 5 [33]. - **Analysis**: As the price of urea rises, downstream follow - up slows down. In November, the daily output increases while demand weakens, and the price is under pressure. The futures 01 contract may face pressure above 1660 yuan/ton [34][35]. 3.9 Styrene - **Market Conditions**: Mainly in a short - term shock state [2][36]. - **Data**: The styrene 2512 contract closed at 6,848 yesterday, down 95 [36]. - **Analysis**: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the market mainly trades cost contradictions. The downstream is in a negative feedback stage, and the terminal demand has not improved. Pay attention to the marginal demand increase after the Sino - US negotiation [37]. 3.10 Soda Ash - **Market Conditions**: Little change in the spot market [2][39]. - **Data**: The SA2601 contract closed at 1,239 yesterday, with no change [40]. - **Analysis**: The domestic soda - ash market is weakly stable, the supply increases slightly, and the downstream demand is average. It is expected to be in a weak - shock pattern in the short term [40]. 3.11 LPG and Propylene - **Market Conditions**: The upward driving force of LPG is limited, and propylene is in a short - term weak - shock state due to loose supply - demand [2][42]. - **Data**: PG2512 of LPG closed at 4,266 yesterday, up 0.33%; PL2601 of propylene closed at 6,112, down 0.65% [42]. - **Analysis**: Pay attention to the cost changes of LPG. The supply - demand of propylene is loose, and the short - term trend is weak [42]. 3.12 PVC - **Market Conditions**: In a low - level shock state [2][51]. - **Data**: The 01 - contract futures price is 4716, and the spot price in East China is 4600 [49]. - **Analysis**: The PVC market has a high - production and high - inventory structure. The reduction - production drive is insufficient, and the export growth may slow down, so the trend is still under pressure [49]. 3.13 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Conditions**: Fuel oil has a short - term retracement, and the fluctuation continues to expand. Low - sulfur fuel oil is temporarily stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [2][52]. - **Data**: FU2511 of fuel oil closed at 2,970 yesterday, down 1.39%; LU2511 of low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,231, down 0.89% [52]. - **Analysis**: The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil show different trends, and relevant data such as inventory and price difference are provided [52]. 3.14 Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Market Conditions**: In a shock - consolidation state [2][54]. - **Data**: The EC2512 contract closed at 1,788.3 yesterday, down 0.66%; the EC2602 contract closed at 1,548.7, down 2.44% [54]. - **Analysis**: The spot freight rate has an upward trend, and the supply - demand situation shows that the weekly average capacity in November increases. For the 2512 contract, consider a low - buying strategy; the 2602 contract has a stronger game nature [63][64][65]. 3.15 Staple Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Market Conditions**: Both have a short - term rebound due to positive demand feedback [2][67]. - **Data**: The staple - fiber 2512 contract closed at 6,250 yesterday, up 8; the bottle - chip 2512 contract closed at 5,740, down 10 [67]. - **Analysis**: The staple - fiber futures follow the raw materials to be strong, and the factory price of bottle chips is raised. However, the trading atmosphere of bottle chips has declined [67][68]. 3.16 Offset Printing Paper - **Market Conditions**: In a low - level shock state [2][70]. - **Data**: The OP2601.SHF contract closed at 4226 yesterday, down 6 [70]. - **Analysis**: The price of offset printing paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets is stable. Some paper mills issue price - increase letters, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [71][73]. 3.17 Pure Benzene - **Market Conditions**: Mainly in a short - term shock state [2][74]. - **Data**: The BZ2603 contract closed at 5495 yesterday, down 74 [74]. - **Analysis**: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the market mainly trades cost contradictions. Pay attention to the changes in port inventory [74].

Report Overview - Date: October 29, 2025 - Report Name: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: Slow destocking in producing areas, focus on downside support [2] - Soybean oil: Rebound in US soybeans, decline in the oil - meal ratio [2] - Soybean meal: Strong US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal rebounds and fluctuates [2] - Soybean: Strong and fluctuating [2] - Corn: Fluctuating weakly [2] - Sugar: Weak overseas, strong domestic [2] - Cotton: Higher cost of new cotton supports cotton futures prices [2] - Eggs: Maintaining adjustment [2] - Live pigs: Spot sentiment declines, waiting for confirmation [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the spot market [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil futures prices (day session: 8,958 yuan/ton, -1.56%; night session: 8,824 yuan/ton, -1.50%); soybean oil futures prices (day session: 8,182 yuan/ton, -0.63%; night session: 8,080 yuan/ton, -1.25%). Spot prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads of related products are also provided [5]. - **News**: Indonesia's 2025 palm oil production is expected to increase by 10% to about 5,600 million tons, and exports are expected to be 3,000 - 3,100 million tons. In 2026, production is expected to increase by another 5%. In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly to 2.54 million tons [6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both -1 [10]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean 2601 futures price (day session: 4,115 yuan/ton, +0.66%; night session: 4,129 yuan/ton, +0.90%); DCE soybean meal 2601 futures price (day session: 2,975 yuan/ton, +1.40%; night session: 2,991 yuan/ton, +0.84%). Spot prices and industry data such as trading volume and inventory are also provided [11]. - **News**: On October 28, CBOT soybean futures hit a 15 - month high due to expectations of a Sino - US trade agreement [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity is 0; soybean trend intensity is +1 [13]. Corn - **Fundamentals**: Corn futures prices (C2511: day session 2,109 yuan/ton, +0.38%; night session 2,105 yuan/ton, -0.19%; C2601: day session 2,123 yuan/ton, +0.28%; night session 2,123 yuan/ton, 0.00%). Spot prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads are also provided [15]. - **News**: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and Guangdong Shekou prices also decreased by 10 yuan/ton [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [17]. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: Raw sugar price is 14.37 cents/pound, -0.09; mainstream spot price is 5,730 yuan/ton, 0; futures main contract price is 5,483 yuan/ton, +38. Spreads and basis are also provided [18]. - **News**: Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 11% year - on - year, and exports decreased. China's sugar imports in September were 550,000 tons (+150,000 tons). The CAOC expects China's 25/26 sugar production to be 11.2 million tons, consumption to be 15.9 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons [18][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 1 [20]. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2601 futures price (day session: 13,565 yuan/ton, 0.00%; night session: 13,575 yuan/ton, 0.07%); CY2601 futures price (day session: 19,765 yuan/ton, -0.03%; night session: 19,785 yuan/ton, 0.10%). Spot prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads are also provided [21]. - **News**: Cotton spot trading is mostly sluggish, with some low - basis transactions being better. ICE cotton futures rose slightly due to optimistic expectations of international economic and trade relations [22][23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [26]. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Egg futures prices (egg 2511: 2,866 yuan/500 kg, -1.85%; egg 2601: 3,304 yuan/500 kg, -0.12%). Spreads, spot prices, and related industry data are also provided [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [28]. Live Pigs - **Fundamentals**: Live pig spot prices (Henan: 12,630 yuan/ton; Sichuan: 12,300 yuan/ton; Guangdong: 12,360 yuan/ton). Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads are also provided [30]. - **Market Information**: Yuexiu and Yangxiang added delivery warehouses. The national feed output in September was 30.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [32]. - **Trend Intensity**: Live pig trend intensity is 0 [31]. Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: Peanut spot prices (Liaoning 308 general: 8,200 yuan/ton; Henan Baisha general: 6,900 yuan/ton, -100; Xingcheng Xiaoriben: 7,900 yuan/ton, +40; Sudan refined rice: 8,650 yuan/ton, 0). Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads are also provided [33]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, peanut prices are chaotic, and supply is not fully released. In Liaoning, farmers are reluctant to sell, and trading is stalemate. In Xingcheng, the market is active [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - PX: PXN should be sold short at high levels. PXN above 230 US dollars should lock in profits at high levels [7]. - PTA: The anti - involution policy creates an expectation of supply contraction, with limited upside potential for the single - side price. PTA processing fees are expected to expand in the short term [7]. - MEG: There will be a short - term rebound, but the upside is expected to be limited [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Futures: PX, PTA, MEG, and SC prices all declined yesterday, with PX down 0.12%, PTA down 0.04%, MEG down 0.97%, and SC down 1.32%. PF rose 0.13%. The month - spreads of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC also showed different changes [2]. - Spot: PX, MEG, and Dated Brent prices declined, while PTA prices increased. The PX - naphtha spread, short - fiber processing fee, and bottle - chip processing fee decreased, while the PTA processing fee increased [2]. Market Dynamics - PX: The price of naphtha declined at the end of the session. PX prices fell today. Concerns about weak PX demand affected the spot price. The planned meeting of major PTA and PET producers in China may be postponed. China's Fujia Dahua Petrochemical plans to increase the production of its PX plant [3][5]. - PTA: A 700,000 - ton PTA plant in Taiwan, China has restarted [6]. - MEG: The planned arrival volume at major ports from October 27 to November 2 is about 198,000 tons [6]. - Polyester: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were average today, with an average sales rate of over 50% by 3:45 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers declined, with an average sales rate of 44% by 3:00 pm [6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Views and Suggestions - PX: PXN should be sold short at high levels. Domestic and Asian PX device operating rates increased. Some devices have restart, maintenance, and load - reduction situations [7]. - PTA: Pay attention to the results of the anti - involution meeting. The downstream market is improving, and PTA processing fees are expected to expand in the short term [7]. - MEG: There will be a short - term rebound, but the upside is limited. Domestic supply may contract marginally, and port inventories are expected to be high [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **PTA**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher, with a fair negotiation atmosphere in the spot market. The spot basis changed little, and the market's trading focus gradually shifted to November. In the short - term, the absolute price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side, and attention should be paid to the changes in plant operations [5]. - **MEG**: On Tuesday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and declined, and the basis weakened synchronously. Due to the wind - induced port closure this week, the vessel warehousing was postponed, and the apparent inventory is expected to decline slightly early next week. The price rebounded under the influence of news and cost, but the upside is still limited. In the fourth quarter, the overall inventory accumulation of ethylene glycol is around 400,000 tons, and the domestic supply is abundant. After the delivery cycle ends, the spot buying in the trading link will also weaken. It is expected that the price will be adjusted within a range in the short - term, with continuous upward pressure [7]. - **Overall**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored when the market rebounds [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided in the report. 3.2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: The fundamentals are neutral. The spot price is 4,535 yuan/ton, the basis of the 01 contract is - 79, and the market is in contango. The PTA factory inventory is 4.07 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing [5][6]. - **MEG**: The fundamentals are neutral. The price of ethylene glycol fluctuated and declined on Tuesday, and the basis weakened. The spot price was at a premium of 69 - 70 yuan/ton to the 01 contract in the afternoon. The inventory in East China is 481,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing [7]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides the PTA supply - demand balance table from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on PTA production capacity, output, consumption, and inventory [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance table from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on ethylene glycol production, import, consumption, and port inventory [12]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: On October 28, 2025, compared with the previous day, the spot price of naphtha in CFR Japan increased by 9 dollars/ton to 584.5 dollars/ton; the spot price of p - xylene in CFR Taiwan, China increased by 17 dollars/ton to 854 dollars/ton; the CCFEI price index of PTA in the domestic market decreased by 288 yuan/ton to 4,232 yuan/ton; the CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol in the domestic market decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 4,140 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory Data**: The report shows the historical inventory data of PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET bottle - chip inventory, and polyester fiber inventory from 2021 - 2025 [43][45]. - **Profit Data**: The report shows the historical profit data of PTA processing, MEG production, and polyester fiber production from 2022 - 2025 [13][62][64]. - **Operating Rate Data**: The report shows the historical operating rate data of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms from 2020 - 2025 [54][56][58]

Market Overview - The crypto market consolidated after strong gains, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading at $114,500 and Ether (ETH) at $4,120, as the market anticipates the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision and a potential U.S.-China trade deal [1] - The altcoin market remains volatile, with several tokens giving back gains, while HBAR and TAO posted double-digit increases [2] Derivatives Positioning - The BTC futures market shows a sustained recovery, with open interest increasing to $27.62 billion, indicating traders are gradually re-engaging [3] - Funding rates have turned predominantly positive, with Binance reporting a high annualized rate of 7.99%, suggesting a bullish bias in the market [3] - The bitcoin options market reflects a bullish outlook, supported by a positive implied volatility term structure and a 25-delta skew of 4%, indicating traders are paying a premium for call options [3] - Liquidations totaled $270 million in 24 hours, with a 71-29 split between longs and shorts, highlighting market volatility [3] Altcoin Performance - HBAR experienced a significant 17% increase after the announcement of its ETF listing on NYSE Arca, with daily trading volume spiking to $871 million, a 344% rise [3] - TRUMP, a memecoin, surged 11% following news of an imminent trade deal with China [3] - The altcoin sector continues to underperform Bitcoin, with CoinMarketCap's "altcoin season" indicator dropping to 28/100 from 78/100 in September [3]