Key Points - From July 1 to August 11, the total number of railway passengers exceeded 600 million, reaching 616 million, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0% and an average daily passenger count of 14.675 million [3] - In the first seven months, the express delivery business volume reached 112.05 billion pieces, showing a year-on-year growth of 18.7% [5] - In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month, with the equipment manufacturing sector growing by 8.4% and high-tech manufacturing by 9.3% [8] - The service production index in July grew by 5.8% year-on-year, with significant increases in information transmission, software, IT services (11.9%), finance (8.7%), and leasing and business services (8.0%) [15] - By June 2025, the total number of 5G base stations is expected to increase fivefold compared to 2020, reaching 4.55 million, while the number of broadband users is projected to grow 34 times to 226 million [13] - In the first half of the year, 13.278 million new business entities were established, including 4.62 million new enterprises and 8.629 million new individual businesses [21] - Under the "Two New" policy, from April 2024 to July 2025, the amount spent on machinery and equipment is expected to grow by 7.3%, with sales of household appliances and audiovisual equipment increasing by 44.5% and 22.8% respectively, and new energy vehicle sales rising by 81.7% [23] - Recently, 188 billion yuan in investment subsidies for equipment upgrades has been fully allocated [19]

Core Insights - The article highlights that the "Two New" policies have significantly boosted corporate procurement and consumer spending [1][3] Group 1: Impact on Corporate Procurement - The implementation of the "Two New" policies has led to a noticeable increase in corporate procurement activities [1] - Companies are responding positively to the policy changes, resulting in enhanced purchasing behaviors [1] Group 2: Effect on Consumer Spending - There has been a marked increase in consumer spending as a direct result of the "Two New" policies [1] - The policies have stimulated demand among residents, contributing to overall economic growth [1]

Economic Overview - The economy in July shows signs of weak recovery, with a potential trend of high-to-low performance throughout the year, indicating increased volatility due to external uncertainties[1] - The nominal GDP is projected to reach around 140 trillion yuan, with limited elasticity in growth rates and GDP deflator index in the second half of the year[12] Industrial Growth - In July, the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations, while month-on-month growth was 0.38%[14] - Manufacturing demand is recovering but showing signs of marginal slowdown, with the new orders index at 49.4%, indicating a decrease in manufacturing market demand[16] Consumer Spending - The retail sales of consumer goods in July grew by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in June, with a notable decline of 1.1 percentage points[19] - Factors affecting retail sales include reduced funding for the "old-for-new" policy, which decreased from 162 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 to 138 billion yuan in the second half[21] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 288.229 billion yuan, growing by 1.6%, which is below market expectations of 2.7%[29] - Infrastructure investment grew by 3.2%, while real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 12.0%[29] Employment Trends - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in July was 5.2%, slightly up from the previous month, reflecting seasonal pressures from the graduation season[6] - Employment policies are being implemented to mitigate youth unemployment, including support for job creation in various sectors[6] Investment Outlook - Manufacturing investment growth was 6.2% year-on-year, but July recorded a negative growth of -0.3%, the first negative reading since July 2020, primarily due to high base effects and uncertainties from trade tensions[45] - The overall investment environment remains cautious, with private investment declining by 1.5% year-on-year, particularly in the real estate sector[29]

2025年以来，国家发展改革委认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院关于实施"两新"政策的决策部署，会同有关 部门和各地方优化设备更新支持范围，完善项目申报审核标准，严格做好项目筛选把关，推动重点领域 实施设备更新。近期，2025年超长期特别国债支持设备更新的1880亿元投资补助资金已下达完毕，支持 工业、用能设备、能源电力、交通运输、物流、环境基础设施、教育、文旅、医疗、住宅老旧电梯、电 子信息、设施农业、粮油加工、安全生产、回收循环利用等领域约8400个项目，带动总投资超过1万亿 元。 国家发展改革委表示，下一步，将按照党中央、国务院决策部署，会同各有关方面持续加强统筹协调， 扎实推进项目建设，推动尽快形成更多实物工作量，严格项目和资金闭环管理，确保中央资金用到实 处，更好发挥"两新"政策效能。 ● 本报记者 彭扬 国家发展改革委8月13日消息，2025年超长期特别国债支持设备更新的1880亿元投资补助资金已于近期 下达完毕。 ...

Market Performance - On August 13, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose for the eighth consecutive day, with A-share trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan, reaching 21,752.10 billion yuan, an increase of 2,700.01 billion yuan from the previous trading day[3][16] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.62%[3][16] - A total of 2,733 stocks rose while 2,458 stocks fell across the market[3][16] Sector and Style Analysis - The performance ranking of indices was: Stability > Cyclicals > Consumption > Neutral > Financials > Growth[3][21] - Among the 30 first-level industries, the top performers were Construction (1.38%), Steel (1.26%), and Non-ferrous Metals (1.19%), while the laggards included Computers (-2.13%), Electronics (-1.22%), and Media (-1.03%)[3][21] Fund Flow - On August 13, 2025, the net outflow of main funds was 275 million yuan, with large orders seeing a net outflow of 107.25 billion yuan and small orders continuing to see a net inflow of 220.48 billion yuan[4][25] - The trading volume of major ETFs such as the Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF increased significantly, with changes of +3.82 billion yuan and +11.91 billion yuan respectively[4][30] Global Market Trends - On August 13, 2025, major Asia-Pacific indices showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index up 2.58% and the Nikkei 225 up 1.30%[5][34] - The US stock market indices generally rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 1.10% and the S&P 500 by 1.13%[6][34]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the allocation of 188 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support equipment renewal investment, aiming to enhance various sectors and stimulate overall investment exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1]. Group 1: Investment Allocation - A total of 188 billion yuan in special long-term bonds has been allocated to support equipment renewal investments since 2025 [1]. - The funding will support approximately 8,400 projects across multiple sectors, including industrial, energy, transportation, and healthcare [1]. Group 2: Project Implementation - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is committed to optimizing the support scope for equipment renewal and improving project application standards [1]. - The NDRC will continue to strengthen coordination and ensure effective project management to maximize the impact of the funding [1].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of 188 billion yuan in special long-term bonds for equipment renewal investment subsidies has been completed, supporting approximately 8,400 projects across various sectors, leading to a total investment exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: Investment and Funding - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has implemented the "Two New" policy since 2025, optimizing the scope of equipment renewal support and improving project application and review standards [1] - The 188 billion yuan in funding will support projects in industrial, energy, transportation, logistics, environmental infrastructure, education, cultural tourism, healthcare, and other sectors [1] - The initiative is expected to drive total investments of over 1 trillion yuan, indicating a significant multiplier effect on the economy [1] Group 2: Future Actions and Management - The NDRC plans to enhance coordination and advance project construction to quickly generate more tangible outcomes [1] - There will be strict management of projects and funds to ensure that central government funding is effectively utilized [1] - The focus will be on maximizing the effectiveness of the "Two New" policy through diligent oversight and project execution [1]

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first half of 2025, industrial enterprises' revenue grew by 2.5% year-on-year, a decline of 0.4 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024[2] - In June 2025, industrial profits decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, a significant narrowing of the decline by 4.8 percentage points from May[3] - Cumulatively, industrial profits for January to June 2025 fell by 1.8% year-on-year, worsening by 0.7 percentage points compared to the first five months of 2025[3] Group 2: Cost and Profit Margins - The operating profit margin for January to June 2025 was 5.15%, down 0.26 percentage points from the same period last year[4] - Costs per 100 yuan of revenue were 85.54 yuan, a slight decrease of 0.07 yuan from the first five months of 2025, but still higher than the 85.27 yuan recorded in the same period last year[6] - The average collection period for accounts receivable in industrial enterprises was 69.8 days, a decrease of 0.7 days, indicating improved cash flow[7] Group 3: Sector Performance - State-owned enterprises saw a profit decline of 7.6% year-on-year, while private enterprises experienced a profit growth of 1.7%, reflecting a mixed performance under challenging conditions[8] - The equipment manufacturing sector showed resilience, with a 7.0% increase in revenue and a profit growth of 9.6% in June 2025, contributing significantly to overall industrial profit growth[14] - The midstream manufacturing sector's profit share has increased for four consecutive months, reaching 48.6% in June 2025, while downstream sectors continue to face weak demand[13] Group 4: Future Outlook - The implementation of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and countering "involution" is expected to support industrial profit recovery in the second half of 2025[18] - Ongoing uncertainties in external demand and trade tensions, particularly with the U.S., may continue to pressure export-dependent industries[19]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to issue the third batch of funds for the consumer goods replacement policy in July, emphasizing a focus on "timeliness" and "balance" in fund allocation [1] - The NDRC has allocated a total of 300 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the consumer goods replacement policy, with 162 billion yuan already distributed in the first two batches [1] - Sales of related goods under the replacement policy have exceeded 1.4 trillion yuan this year, indicating a rapid growth in sectors such as home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment [1] Group 2 - The NDRC will enhance the inter-ministerial joint meeting mechanism for the "Two New" policy, focusing on project management, accelerating construction, and strengthening fund supervision [2] - A new loan interest subsidy policy for equipment updates will be introduced to further reduce financing costs for businesses [2]

Group 1 - Huaxia Electric Power has officially put into operation its new 660,000 kW supercritical reheat steam turbine generator unit, which is part of its capacity replacement project to enhance energy efficiency and reduce emissions [1] - The project is expected to decrease coal consumption by approximately 17%, saving about 139,000 tons of standard coal annually and reducing carbon dioxide emissions by around 361,000 tons [1] - The financing costs for Huaxia Electric Power have been significantly lowered due to policy support, easing the financial burden of equipment upgrades [1] Group 2 - The China Development Bank is actively utilizing the People's Bank of China's re-loan policy to support technological innovation and equipment upgrades for enterprises, facilitating a smoother transition for companies [2] - The re-loan quota has been increased from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan to bolster the "two new" policies, which aim to enhance technological transformation and equipment renewal [2] - Financial institutions are focusing on their core responsibilities to support the "two new" policies, aiming to create a dynamic balance between supply and demand [2] Group 3 - Large-scale equipment updates are crucial for industrial upgrading and stimulating domestic demand, with significant implications for high-end, intelligent, and green production [3] - The Anhui Sanduo Bearing Company is planning to enhance its production capacity for high-end bearings used in robotics and intelligent equipment, supported by a 600 million yuan loan from Agricultural Bank of China [3][4] - The timely financial support from banks is enabling companies to upgrade their production lines and enhance their competitiveness in the international market [4] Group 4 - The banking sector plays a vital role in promoting the "old-for-new" policy, which is essential for stimulating consumer spending and economic growth [5] - Banks are launching various initiatives to support the "old-for-new" policy, including payment discounts and streamlined services, to inject financial vitality into the consumer market [5] - Traffic Bank has introduced special subsidy activities in collaboration with government-designated merchants to promote consumption in high-demand sectors such as home appliances and digital products [5][6] Group 5 - The surge in consumer demand due to the "old-for-new" policy has led to increased sales for many merchants, but also challenges related to cash flow and financing [6] - Traffic Bank has identified the financial needs of merchants participating in national subsidy activities and provided timely credit support to help them capitalize on market opportunities [6] - The bank's loan products are designed to be simple and quick to access, enabling merchants to respond effectively to the fast-paced sales environment driven by national subsidy policies [6]