Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the PVC futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract falling by 1.71% to 4591.00 yuan/ton on December 22 [1] Group 2 - In the spot market, the PVC prices in the Linyi region continue to show weakness, with dealers generally lowering their quotes to prioritize sales, resulting in a lackluster market atmosphere and low actual transactions [2] - The mainstream price for the electric calcium carbide method is reported to be in the range of 4320-4360 yuan/ton [2] - On the supply side, Hualian Futures notes that the operating rate has continued to decline week-on-week, primarily due to some facilities reducing output, although overall supply remains high [2] - There is no new capacity expected next year, indicating that supply expansion is nearing its end [2] - On the demand side, Southwest Futures reports a decrease in operating rates among downstream product enterprises, mainly due to a decline in the operation of hard products [2] - The cost-profit aspect shows a decline in caustic soda prices, while liquid chlorine prices have increased week-on-week, leading to an overall decrease in chlor-alkali profits [2] - Overall, Wukuang Futures states that the reality of strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market makes it difficult to reverse the oversupply situation, with a poor fundamental outlook [2] - Short-term sentiment may lead to a rebound, but the prevailing strategy remains to sell on rallies until substantial production cuts occur in the industry [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping market in 2026 faces significant oversupply pressure. Demand growth is expected to slow down notably, with the restocking demands in Europe and the US diverging and having limited elasticity. Although emerging markets remain resilient, they cannot fully offset the weakness in traditional markets. The supply side will see continuous release of new capacity. If the Suez Canal resumes normal operation, it may exacerbate the global oversupply of shipping capacity. Coupled with the delivery pressure of large - scale vessels in 2026, the annual supply - demand gap will widen further. Policy risks are the key variables, and the ability to fulfill cargo volumes will be the core factor affecting freight rate fluctuations. Overall, the freight rate center will be under pressure in 2026, with limited upside potential during the peak season. Consider short - selling opportunities in the April and October contracts at high levels [3][59] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review in 2025 - **January 2025**: The market continued the upward trend from the end - of - year peak season in 2024, but the actual cargo volume fell short of expectations. With redundant supply (a 10% increase in weekly average capacity compared to the previous month) and the rising expectation of the Red Sea route resumption, the EC2504 contract price dropped from 1722 points to 1163 points, a cumulative decline of 32.4% [7] - **Around the Spring Festival in 2025**: Shipping companies expanded the scope of sailings cancellations to stabilize freight rates. The market price stopped falling and stabilized. The market expected a post - festival price increase, and the EC2504 contract price stood firmly above 1300 points. After the Spring Festival, shipping companies announced a freight rate increase in March, driving the contract price from a discount to a premium and starting a unilateral upward trend [7] - **After the Spring Festival - early April 2025**: Despite continuous price - hike signals from shipping companies, the actual implementation was poor. It was the traditional off - season, and the cargo volume recovery was below expectations. The capacity pressure from the concentrated delivery of new ships emerged (cumulative delivery in the first three quarters exceeded 300,000 TEU). The EC main contract fluctuated widely between 1500 - 1700 points, maintaining a pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality" [8] - **April - May 2025**: On April 2, the US government announced additional tariffs on China, causing a sharp drop in cargo volume on the US - West route. The capacity originally allocated to the US route was diverted to the European route, worsening the supply - demand imbalance. The EC2506 contract price fell from 1700 points to 1530 points, a 10% decline, and market panic spread [8] - **Mid - May - late June 2025**: The EC contract showed a downward - trending oscillation. As the Sino - US trade negotiation atmosphere improved, there was a rush of bookings on the US - West route. However, the US - line freight rate was weak, which affected the European - line market sentiment. The actual situation deviated from the market's previous expectations, pushing the EC contract price down [9] - **Late June - late July 2025**: The container shipping European - line futures market rose overall. The weighted index climbed from 1500 points to 1800 points. The positive sentiment in the commodity market and the tight supply - demand situation during the peak season drove the price up. The main contract smoothly transitioned from the 08 contract to the 10 contract, and the 12 contract also rose, forming a multi - contract upward pattern [10] - **Late July - late September 2025**: The market declined continuously. The off - season characteristics became obvious in mid - July, and the spot freight rate started to fall. The trading logic of the 10 contract shifted to be fundamentally driven. The 10 contract and far - month contracts entered a downward channel. In mid - August, the spot market decline intensified, and the 10 contract deviated from the 12 and 02 contracts. In the traditional off - season, the spot market price war emerged, and the 10 contract fell to below 1100 points. The 12 contract oscillated, and the 02 contract's price center rose slightly [11] - **September - end of November 2025**: Shipping companies repeatedly announced freight rate increases, but the actual implementation was weak. The EC12 contract price rose to 1960 points and then fell back to 1550 points. The rising expectation of a cease - fire in the Israel - Palestine conflict accelerated the discount process of far - month contracts, and the market worried more about the oversupply in 2026 [12] - **December 2025**: On the spot side, the PA alliance accumulated a large amount of cargo through low - price strategies in the first half of the month, and the blank sailings in the last two weeks eased the pressure. The market quotation stabilized at $2400/FEU, and the freight rate center increased by over $200 in late December. Leading shipping companies coordinated to support prices, boosting market confidence. The European seasonal stocking demand increased cargo volume, and the capacity utilization rate improved. The weekly average capacity on the European route shrank to 285,000 TEU in late December. The slow progress of the Red Sea route resumption did not add new negative factors to the supply side. The 2602 contract showed a bullish tendency, but overall, it was still a pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality" [12][13] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Static Capacity Supply - The supply pressure in the container shipping market remains huge. After a decline from 8 million TEU to 6 million TEU from mid - 2023 to mid - 2024, the total container ship orders reached a new high of 9.9 million TEU due to the Red Sea crisis. Orders are mainly for ships with a capacity of over 8000 TEU, and the order volume of ships with a capacity of over 17000 TEU (mostly for the European route) increased sharply from 960,000 TEU to 4 million TEU. The order volume of 12000 - 16999 TEU ships decreased, with new orders of 764,000 TEU and deliveries of 1.118 million TEU this year, while the 17000 + TEU ships had new orders of 1.841 million TEU and deliveries of 254,000 TEU [14][16] 3.2.2 Dynamic Capacity Supply - The market focuses more on short - to - medium - term capacity supply, which is affected by shipping schedules (capacity deployment), idle capacity, sailing speed, and port and canal congestion. - **Capacity Deployment**: The 17 routes priced in the SCFIS European line are operated by different alliances and companies. The weekly average capacity deployment on the European route in the third and fourth quarters increased by 10,000 - 20,000 TEU compared to last year, indicating sufficient supply [24] - **Idle Capacity and Sailing Speed**: The idle capacity is close to 780,000 TEU, at a normal level, and has little impact on freight rates. The sailing speed is slightly faster than the economic speed and has decreased compared to last year as the new ships have met the demand [27] - **In - Port Capacity**: The in - port capacity in European ports was relatively high in the first half of the year due to strikes but has returned to normal since late May, without seriously affecting the supply chain [33] 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Tariff Issues - **2025 Performance**: In April, the Trump administration introduced "reciprocal tariffs" on China, initially at 34% and later raised to 145%, causing a more than 30% decline in China's exports to the US from April to May. China counter - imposed tariffs on US imports, initially at 84% and later raised to 125%. After a trade consultation in May, the retaliatory tariffs were temporarily suspended, and a 10% base tariff plus a 20% fentanyl - specific tariff was implemented until November 2026 [39] - **2026 Outlook**: High tariffs have significantly reduced demand on the US route, with the SCFI US - line freight rate down 40% year - on - year. Shipping companies have shifted capacity to other markets, intensifying the global supply - demand imbalance. China's exports to emerging markets such as ASEAN and Latin America increased by 10% - 15%, and the export proportion of products like machinery, electronics, and new - energy vehicles has risen. The US restocking demand may be delayed until the second quarter with limited elasticity, and the EU's anti - subsidy investigations and green trade barriers will continue to pressure the market. The demand growth in the global container shipping market may slow down [48][49] 3.3.2 Red Sea Issues - **2025 Situation**: A partial cease - fire agreement in the Israel - Palestine conflict in October led to CMA CGM's trial resumption of the Red Sea route, and the Suez Canal Authority promoted related negotiations and offered toll discounts. However, due to security concerns from the Houthi rebels and pirate activities, the annual resumption rate of the Red Sea route in 2025 was only 30% of the pre - pandemic level. Ship detours around the Cape of Good Hope increased the voyage by 30%, reducing effective capacity by 30% and increasing fuel costs by 40%. The SCFI European - line freight rate dropped 50% year - on - year, with limited rebound during the peak season [52][53] - **2026 Outlook**: If the cease - fire in Gaza continues until the first quarter of 2026, the Red Sea route may resume in March. If the resumption is successful, the global container shipping oversupply will intensify by 30%, the weekly average capacity on the European route will increase by 10,000 - 20,000 TEU, and the peak - season freight rate center may drop by over 30%. If the detour continues, the supply growth will slow to 5%, but the demand will still be pressured by the economic divergence in Europe and the US, and the freight rate center will face downward pressure [54][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously chase up [3] - Ethylene glycol: Stop profit on short positions [3] - Methanol: Cautiously go long with a light position [3] - Urea: Cautiously chase up [3] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Bearish rebound [6] - Glass: Bearish rebound [6] - Soda ash: Bearish rebound [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical uncertainty and oversupply are pulling the oil price, which is oscillating weakly. The cost - end oil price rebounds in the short - term but is under pressure in the long - term. The demand of various chemical products is weakening or has uncertain expectations, and the inventory situation varies, with some products facing high inventory pressure [1][9][15] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices oscillated weakly. WTI slightly rose by 0.23%, Brent decreased by 0.30%, and SC rose by 0.94% [8] - **Basic Logic**: The Russia - Ukraine geopolitics is developing towards relaxation, while the South American geopolitical uncertainty is rising. The core driver is the oversupply of crude oil in the off - season, with global and US crude oil and refined product inventories increasing [9] - **Fundamentals**: In October, Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased to 7.1 million barrels per day. The IEA expects global crude oil demand to increase by 830,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 860,000 barrels per day in 2026. As of the week of December 12, US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.274 million barrels, while gasoline, distillate, and strategic crude oil reserves increased [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production and pressing down prices. The technical and short - cycle trends are weak. The strategy is to increase short positions. Pay attention to SC in the range of [420 - 435] [11] 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On December 17, the PG main contract closed at 4,212 yuan/ton, up 0.05% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,410 (-20) yuan/ton, 4,398 (-10) yuan/ton, and 4,490 (+30) yuan/ton respectively [14] - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost - end crude oil. The oil price rebounds in the short - term but is downward in the long - term. The supply and demand side shows that refinery operations are rising, the commodity volume is recovering, and downstream chemical demand is resilient. The inventory of refineries and ports has decreased [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to move down. The cost - end rebounds in the short - term but is under pressure in the long - term. The strategy is to hold short positions. Pay attention to PG in the range of [4050 - 4150] [16] 3.3 L - **Market Review**: L05 basis is - 96 yuan/ton, L15 is - 43 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts is 11,332 [19] - **Basic Logic**: Demand is weakening, and the sharp decline of North China's spot price has led to a significant weakening of the basis. The supply and demand are both weak. The parking ratio has slightly increased to 15%, and the LL weighted gross profit has been compressed to a low level. The supply is still sufficient. The peak season of shed film is ending, and the agricultural film operating rate is declining rapidly. The enterprise inventory has increased slightly, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, the price is at a low level, and some short positions can stop profit. In the long - term, it is in a high - production cycle. Wait for a rebound to go short. Hold short positions on the LP05 spread. Pay attention to L in the range of [6350 - 6500] [20] 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: PP05 basis is - 80 yuan/ton, PP15 spread is - 77 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts is 10,534 [22] - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts continue to be cancelled, and high inventory restricts the rebound space. Pay attention to the dynamics of PDH devices. In December, demand is entering the off - season, the parking ratio has dropped to 16%, and there are insufficient maintenance plans in the future. The PDH profit has been compressed to a low level, increasing the expectation of maintenance [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions; in the long - term, it is in a high - production cycle. Wait for a rebound to go short. Short the MTO05. Pay attention to PP in the range of [6200 - 6300] [23] 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: V05 basis is - 280 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts is 113,074 [26] - **Basic Logic**: The operation rate and inventory have decreased slightly. The inventory of the upper - and middle - reaches is still at a high level, and the domestic and foreign demand is in the seasonal off - season. The contradiction of oversupply is difficult to ease, but the northwest self - supplied calcium carbide process devices are losing cash flow. Pay attention to the device dynamics [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, partially stop profit on long positions; in the long - term, wait for continuous inventory reduction and try to go long on pullbacks. Industrial customers can hedge at high prices. Pay attention to V in the range of [4600 - 4800] [27] 3.6 PX/PTA - **Market Review**: TA05 price is 4,674 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China is 4,610 yuan/ton [28] - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is relatively low. Domestic devices are under planned maintenance with a large intensity. Downstream demand is okay but the expectation is weakening. The cost - end support is weakening. The short - term supply and demand are tight, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in January [29] - **Strategy Recommendation**: TA01 is under pressure but has support at the bottom. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on pullbacks for TA05. Pay attention to TA05 in the range of [4670 - 4850] [30] 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG05 price is 3,627 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China is 3,602 yuan/ton [31] - **Basic Logic**: The domestic and overseas device operating rates have decreased. Downstream demand is okay but the expectation is weakening. The inventory is expected to accumulate in December. The valuation is low, but there is no upward driver. It fluctuates in the short - term following the cost [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop profit on short positions; pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. Pay attention to EG05 in the range of [3725 - 3785] [33] 3.8 Methanol - **Market Review**: Taicang spot price is slightly stronger, and the port inventory has decreased month - on - month [36] - **Basic Logic**: The domestic methanol device operating rate has increased to a high level in the same period. Overseas devices have decreased their loads. The import volume in December is estimated to be about 1.3 million tons, and the supply pressure still exists. The demand has slightly weakened. The cost - end support is weakening [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously short, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on pullbacks. Pay attention to MA05 in the range of [2145 - 2185] [38] 3.9 Urea - **Market Review**: Shandong small - particle urea basis is 85 yuan/ton [39] - **Basic Logic**: The daily output of urea is as high as 199,000 tons. By mid - to late December, the supply pressure is expected to ease. The short - term demand is relatively good but lacks sustainability. The factory inventory has decreased but is still at a high level in the same period. The export has maintained a high growth rate since July. There is a ceiling and a floor for the urea price. The domestic fundamentals are still relatively loose [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously chase up, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on pullbacks for UR05. Pay attention to UR05 in the range of [1670 - 1710] [42] 3.10 Natural Gas - **Market Review**: On December 17, the NG main contract closed at 4.024 US dollars per million British thermal units, up 3.55% month - on - month [44] - **Basic Logic**: The demand has entered the peak consumption season, but the recent mild weather in the US has reduced the support for gas prices. The supply is relatively sufficient, and gas prices are under pressure [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The demand has support during the peak consumption season, but gas prices are under pressure due to sufficient supply. Pay attention to NG in the range of [3.762 - 4.174] [45] 3.11 Asphalt - **Market Review**: On December 18, the BU main contract closed at 2,952 yuan/ton, down 1.99% month - on - month [47] - **Basic Logic**: The price is mainly anchored to the cost - end crude oil. The oil price is weak, and the supply and demand are both weak. The South American geopolitical uncertainty is the main disturbing factor recently, causing a price rebound [48] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation is returning to normal, and there is still about 100 yuan/ton of compression space. The supply is sufficient, and the demand has entered the off - season. Partially stop profit on short positions. Pay attention to BU in the range of [2900 - 3000] [49] 3.12 Glass - **Market Review**: FG05 basis is - 32 yuan/ton, FG15 is - 109 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts is 1,244 [51] - **Basic Logic**: The number of warehouse receipts has increased, and the factory inventory has ended a three - week decline. High inventory restricts the rebound space. The daily melting volume is stable at 155,000 tons. The profits of the three processes have turned negative. The real estate market is in an adjustment period, and the deep - processing orders are weakening [52] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, stop profit on some short positions due to the support of short - term moving averages. In the long - term, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to FG in the range of [1030 - 1080] [52] 3.13 Soda Ash - **Market Review**: SA05 basis is - 43 yuan/ton, SA15 is - 109 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts is 4,332 [54] - **Basic Logic**: The factory inventory has ended a five - week decline. Short - term supply pressure has been relieved by maintenance, but there is a plan to put into production a 2.8 million - ton device of Yuanxing in late December. The long - term supply will remain loose. The cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased, and the demand support is insufficient [55] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, stop profit on short positions due to the support of short - term moving averages. In the long - term, wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to SA in the range of [1150 - 1200] [55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall, the report maintains a cautious and bearish stance on the energy and chemical industries, with specific ratings for each variety including "cautious short," "short consolidation," and "cautious pursuit of short" [1][3][7] 2. Report Core View - The report analyzes the market trends of various energy and chemical products, considering factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, geopolitical situations, and inventory levels. It concludes that most products face downward pressure due to factors like oversupply, weakening cost support, and seasonal demand changes [1][3][7] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Core view: Cautious short. The oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the rebound of oil prices is bearish [1] - Main logic: Geopolitical uncertainties in South America have increased, and there is a seasonal supply surplus. OPEC+ is still in the expansion cycle, global floating storage and in - transit crude have surged, and US crude and refined product inventories have both increased. Key variables to watch are US shale oil production changes and geopolitical developments in Russia - Ukraine and South America [1] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the price range of SC at [430 - 440] [12] LPG - Core view: Cautious short. The downward trend of the cost - end (crude oil) and inventory accumulation have led to a weakening trend [1] - Main logic: The cost - end crude oil is in an adjustment phase with a downward trend. On the supply - demand side, refinery operations have increased, and downstream chemical demand has some resilience. However, inventory levels at ports and factories have increased month - on - month [1] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the price range of PG at [4100 - 4200] [16] L (Linear Low - Density Polyethylene) - Core view: Short consolidation. Focus on device dynamics [17] - Main logic: Devices maintain high - level operations. Although there may be a short - term oversold rebound, the supply side is still sufficient. The peak season for shed films is ending, and enterprise inventories are slightly increasing. There is still pressure to reduce inventory in the future [20] - Strategy: Reduce short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the price range of L at [6500 - 6650] [20] PP (Polypropylene) - Core view: Short consolidation. Focus on PDH device dynamics [21] - Main logic: The main contract is shifting, and weighted profit margins are compressed. In December, the demand side is entering the off - season, and the shutdown ratio has decreased. PDH profits are at a low level, and there is a lack of future maintenance plans, resulting in high inventory reduction pressure in the industry chain [24] - Strategy: Reduce short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short. Consider long PP processing fees or short MTO05 for arbitrage. Pay attention to the price range of PP at [6200 - 6350] [24] PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - Core view: Short consolidation. Low - valuation support [25] - Main logic: There is a game between high - level operations and low profits. Currently, the upstream and mid - stream inventories are high and stable, and both domestic and foreign demand are in the seasonal off - season. The supply - demand imbalance is difficult to resolve without concentrated maintenance in the upstream and mid - stream. Recently, the prices of chlorine and alkali have both declined, and some northwest self - supplied calcium carbide method devices are losing cash flow [28] - Strategy: Wait and see in the short term. Wait for continuous inventory reduction to go long in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the price range of V at [4250 - 4400] [28] PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) - Core view: Cautious short. Cost support is weakening, but the valuation is relatively low [29] - Main logic: The processing fees are generally low. Domestic devices are mainly under planned maintenance with a large - scale. Downstream demand is currently okay but is expected to weaken. The cost - end PX has been fluctuating weakly recently. There is no significant inventory pressure in the short term, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December [30] - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract at low prices. Pay attention to the price range of TA at [4550 - 4650] [31] MEG (Monoethylene Glycol) - Core view: Rebound and short. Supply - demand improvement vs. inventory accumulation expectation [32] - Main logic: The overall domestic operating load has decreased, and overseas devices have also slightly reduced their loads. Downstream demand is currently okay but is expected to weaken. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December. The valuation of MEG is low, but there is a lack of upward driving force [33] - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on a rebound. Pay attention to the price range of EG at [3615 - 3695] [34] Methanol - Core view: Oscillate weakly. The accelerated reduction of port inventory does not change the bearish fundamentals [35] - Main logic: The spot price in Taicang has weakened, and port inventory has decreased month - on - month. The domestic methanol device operating load has increased to a high - level, and overseas devices have reduced their loads. The estimated arrival volume in December is about 1.3 million tons, and there is still supply - side pressure. The demand side has slightly weakened, and the cost support has weakened [37] - Strategy: The arrival volume in December is still high, and the supply - side pressure is still large. The 05 contract of methanol oscillates weakly with limited downward space [39] Urea - Core view: Cautious short. Weak reality vs. strong expectation [40] - Main logic: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong has strengthened. The daily output of urea is high, but the supply - side pressure is expected to ease in mid - to - late December. The short - term demand is relatively good but lacks sustainability. The inventory has decreased but is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The arbitrage window between domestic and foreign markets is not closed [41] - Strategy: Cautious short. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract. Pay attention to the price range of UR05 at [1655 - 1685] [43] LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) - Core view: The supply shortage has eased, and the gas price has declined [44] - Main logic: The demand side has entered the peak consumption season, but the gas price has reached a high - level in recent years. Currently, the supply side is relatively abundant, putting downward pressure on the gas price [47] - Strategy: The demand side has support during the winter consumption season, but the high gas price and sufficient supply lead to downward pressure. Pay attention to the price range of NG at [4.021 - 4.406] [47] Asphalt - Core view: Oscillate within a range. Cost - end bearishness vs. South American geopolitical uncertainties [48] - Main logic: The price trend is mainly determined by the cost - end crude oil, which is weak. The supply - demand relationship is also weak. Recently, focus on the South American geopolitical situation [50] - Strategy: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. The supply is sufficient, and the demand has entered the off - season. Partially close short positions due to the increasing South American geopolitical uncertainties. Pay attention to the price range of BU at [2900 - 3000] [51] Glass - Core view: The short trend continues. The supply reduction is insufficient [52] - Main logic: Both the futures and spot prices have declined, and the basis has strengthened. The daily melting volume remains at 155,000 tons, and there is an expectation of water release from a production line in South China this week. There are no new ignition production lines. The profits of various processes have recovered, and the supply is unlikely to be significantly reduced. The real estate market is in an adjustment period, and downstream processing orders are at a low level compared to the same period, resulting in weak demand. Although the factory inventory has decreased for three consecutive months, the absolute inventory in the upstream and mid - stream is still high [55] - Strategy: Short - term moving averages suppress the price. Short in the short term. Wait for a rebound to short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the price range of FG at [930 - 980] [55] Soda Ash - Core view: Short consolidation. High - level cancellation of warehouse receipts [56] - Main logic: Warehouse receipts have been cancelled at a high - level. The factory inventory has decreased for five consecutive months but is still at a high level compared to the same period. There are few planned maintenance enterprises next week, and there is a plan to put into operation a 2.8 - million - ton device of Yuanxing in late December, maintaining a loose supply pattern. The cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic + float glass remains at 244,000 tons, with insufficient demand support [59] - Strategy: Moving averages suppress the price. Short in the short term. Wait for a rebound to short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the price range of SA at [1080 - 1130] [59]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current decline in ethylene glycol started in early September and has continued until now, mainly due to oversupply caused by high operating rates, new device production, and increased imports. The demand has remained tepid in the second half of the year. After the news of Yulong Petrochemical's planned production in early September, the market started trading the inventory accumulation cycle after the National Day. Currently, the profit of ethylene glycol has been significantly compressed, leading to unscheduled maintenance and load reduction in the industry. With profits remaining low, further production cuts are expected, and combined with the expected decline in overseas imports, the inventory situation is likely to improve. Therefore, ethylene glycol is currently in a bottom - building stage, and the risk of its rebound should be guarded against [1][4][5][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of the Current Decline - **Supply Side**: Since this year, except during the maintenance season, ethylene glycol has maintained relatively good profits throughout the year, resulting in low willingness for active production cuts and a high overall operating rate in recent years, with high factory inventories. In the second half of the year, there has been a large amount of new production capacity. For example, Zhengdaikai's 600,000 - ton capacity was put into production in the middle of the year, and Yulong Petrochemical's 800,000 - ton and Yichang's 200,000 - ton devices will be put into production at the end of the year. After the power disturbance in Saudi Arabia ended, the import volume to China increased explosively starting from October [4]. - **Demand Side**: Although the export tariff pressure on chemical fibers has decreased, and the load has remained at a high level since the end of the third quarter, the load of bottle chips has been limited by inventory and production capacity pressure, remaining at around 70%. As a result, the polyester operating rate has been stable, and the ethylene glycol market has been mainly affected by supply factors [4]. - **Inflection Point**: After the news of Yulong Petrochemical's planned production in early September, which was nearly two months earlier than the initial market expectation, ethylene glycol broke through the support level and declined. Even though the inventory dropped to the lowest level of the year in September, the market still anticipated the inventory accumulation cycle after the National Day. With the increase in the arrival volume after the National Day, the inventory accumulation cycle began, and ethylene glycol continued to decline [5]. 2. The Industry Starts Production Cuts, and the Decline Meets Resistance - **Profit Compression**: After the decline from the high level, the profit of ethylene glycol has been significantly compressed. The profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol has dropped to the lowest level of the year, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has dropped to the lowest level since 2024. In the United States, under the dual pressure of rising ethane costs and falling ethylene glycol prices, the profit has fallen below the lowest level in 2023 [13]. - **Production Cuts**: Due to profit pressure, the industry has started unscheduled maintenance and load reduction. Overseas, the United States has also carried out maintenance and production cuts. As profits continue to be low, further production cuts in the industry are expected, and combined with the expected decline in overseas imports, the inventory situation is expected to improve. Currently, ethylene glycol is in a bottom - building stage, and attention should be paid to the risk of its rebound, especially if there are further production cuts in the industry, which may reverse the balance sheet expectation [13].

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | 月 | 供给过剩叠加地缘缓和，油价弱势下行。地缘：俄乌地缘仍有扰动，12 8 日泽连斯基与英国、德国、法国首脑进行会晤；核心驱动：淡季供给 | | 原油 | | | | | 谨慎看空 | 过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油 | | ★ | | 激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注 | | | | 变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端拖累，液化气走弱。成本端原油，震荡调整，大趋势仍向下；供需 | | LPG | | 方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70%左右， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端改善，港口与厂内库存环比下降。 | | L | | 期现共振下跌，基差走强。国内开工季节性回升，月内到港资源充足，供 | | | 空头延续 | 给端整体依旧充足。棚膜旺季逐步见顶，农膜开工率三连降。油价中期仍 | | ★ | | 存下移风 ...

| | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | OPEC+维持产量政策不变，淡季供给过剩仍主导市场走势。地缘：俄乌地 缘仍有扰动，乌克兰袭击 CPC 管道，短期提振油价；核心驱动：淡季供 | | 原油 | 谨慎看空 | 给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原 | | ★ | | 油激增，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化， | | | | 俄乌以及南美地缘进展。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 成本支撑下降，需求下降，液化气承压回落。成本端原油受俄乌地缘扰动， | | LPG | | 震荡调整，大趋势仍向下，沙特上调 12 月份 CP 合同价，但盘面已计价； | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 供需方面，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70%左右，下游化工需求存在韧性； | | | | 库存端改善，港口与厂内库存环比下降。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 现货跟涨不足，基差走弱，谨慎看待反弹高度。国内开工季节性回升，月 | | L | 空头盘整 | 内到港资源充足，供给端整体依旧充足 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [7][10] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand structure of oilseeds is stable, maintaining a volatile pattern. For soybeans, supply pressure is the core constraint on prices, with high - yield expectations domestically and globally, and rigid demand. For peanuts, the short - term is a north - strong, south - weak and range - bound pattern, and the medium - to - long - term is likely to first stabilize and then decline [4][6][9] Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Market Review - From January to October 2025, the soybean futures market maintained a low - level volatile pattern, and the spot market showed a high - quality, high - price situation. Futures prices fluctuated in different periods due to factors such as changes in supply and demand, policy signals, and weather [12][15][19] 2. Soybean Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: In the 2025/26 season, the national soybean sown and harvested areas are expected to be 10,424 thousand hectares, with a 0.96% increase compared to 2024/25. The predicted yield per unit area in November is 2,005 kg/ha. The total output is expected to be 2.09 million tons. The reasons for the high - yield are good weather in the producing areas and strong policy support. The predicted soybean import volume in 2025 is 108 million tons, with a 2.9% year - on - year increase, and the import dependence drops to 79.5%. The import of non - genetically modified soybeans from January to September 2025 decreased significantly [20][21][27] - **Demand**: The change in domestic soybean crushing demand is related to the supply of imported soybeans. The edible demand has obvious seasonal characteristics, and the overall demand increment is small [32] 3. Soybean Future Outlook - Supply pressure is the core factor affecting prices. Domestic and global soybean supplies are expected to be abundant, while demand growth is rigid. The price will mainly fluctuate, and the deep - decline space is limited by the purchase policy of CGS. Attention should be paid to the implementation of US soybean purchases and the impact of South American weather on global supply expectations [34][37] 4. Peanut Market Review - From January to October 2025, peanut prices showed a pattern of bottom - building and then differentiated upward. The price was suppressed in the early stage due to slow inventory digestion and weak consumption. After June, the price was affected by policies and seasonal factors. In September - October, the market showed a pattern of strong in the northeast and weak in Henan [38] 5. Peanut Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The national peanut planting area in 2025 is expected to increase by 3%. The average yield per unit area is estimated to be 458.8 jin/mu, and the total output is about 1.7 million tons. The output expectations from different sources vary. The planting areas in different regions have different trends. The import volume from January to September 2025 decreased significantly, and the import inventory has returned to normal. The weather in Henan has a great impact on peanut production [40][42][45] - **Demand**: Peanut demand is mainly divided into food consumption and oil - pressing consumption. The oil - pressing demand shows a trend of low in the front and high in the back, which is mainly affected by the profit of oil - pressing [48][51] 6. Peanut Future Outlook - **Short - term**: From November 2025 to before the Spring Festival, the peanut market will maintain a north - strong, south - weak and range - bound pattern. The high oil - pressing profit will support the price, but the pressure of new grain listing in Henan and the difficulty of high - price transactions in the sales area will limit the increase [52] - **Medium - to - long - term**: In 2026, the peanut market is likely to first stabilize and then decline. The supply will be loose, while the demand increment is less than the output increment. The price is expected to be under pressure after the Spring Festival and have a short - term rebound in the off - season [53]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - Supply exceeds demand, and cost support weakens, so PP is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate rose 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week-on-week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years; the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstrings, remained flat at 44.24%, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On November 27, there was little change in maintenance devices, PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 83%, at a neutral to low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstrings remained at around 31% [1][4] - Petrochemical destocking slowed down in November, and current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral to high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - Crude oil prices declined due to the lack of impact on Russia's oil production from new sanctions and the push for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - A new 400,000-ton/year production capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid-October, and there was a slight decrease in maintenance devices recently [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions, closing at 6,295 yuan/ton, down 0.03%, and the position volume decreased by 29,319 lots to 557,253 lots [2] - Spot: Most PP spot prices in various regions were stable, with drawstrings quoted at 6,150 - 6,480 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 27, there was little change in maintenance devices, and PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 83%, at a neutral to low level [1][4] - Demand: As of the week of November 21, PP downstream operating rate rose 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week-on-week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years; the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstrings, remained flat at 44.24%, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory: Petrochemical early inventory on Thursday decreased by 0.5 million tons to 65 million tons week-on-week, 4.5 million tons higher than the same period last year [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 02 contract fell below $63 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $735 per ton week-on-week [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to supply surplus and weakened cost support, PP is expected to experience a weak and volatile trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders week - on - week and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On November 26, the restart of overhauled units such as a single line of Dagang Petrochemical drove the PP enterprise operating rate up to around 83%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard drawstring remained at around 31% [1][4] - In November, the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that the latest sanctions imposed by the US and the West did not affect Russia's oil production. Trump's administration is actively promoting a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky is open to peace talks, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1] - In terms of supply, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of overhauled units has decreased recently. As the downstream enters the end of the peak season, the follow - up of orders for plastic weaving is limited, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 6,258 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,332 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,265 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.42%. The open interest decreased by 19,187 lots to 586,572 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in various regions partially declined. The drawstring was quoted at 6,150 - 6,480 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On November 26, the restart of overhauled units such as a single line of Dagang Petrochemical drove the PP enterprise operating rate up to around 83%, at a moderately low level [4] - Demand side: As of the week of November 21, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders week - on - week and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Petrochemical early inventory on Wednesday decreased by 30,000 tons to 655,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons higher than the same period last year. In November, the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw material end - crude oil: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fell below $63 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $735 per ton week - on - week [4]