中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | 月 | 供给过剩叠加地缘缓和，油价弱势下行。地缘：俄乌地缘仍有扰动，12 8 日泽连斯基与英国、德国、法国首脑进行会晤；核心驱动：淡季供给 | | 原油 | | | | | 谨慎看空 | 过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油 | | ★ | | 激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注 | | | | 变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端拖累，液化气走弱。成本端原油，震荡调整，大趋势仍向下；供需 | | LPG | | 方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70%左右， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端改善，港口与厂内库存环比下降。 | | L | | 期现共振下跌，基差走强。国内开工季节性回升，月内到港资源充足，供 | | | 空头延续 | 给端整体依旧充足。棚膜旺季逐步见顶，农膜开工率三连降。油价中期仍 | | ★ | | 存下移风 ...

| | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | OPEC+维持产量政策不变，淡季供给过剩仍主导市场走势。地缘：俄乌地 缘仍有扰动，乌克兰袭击 CPC 管道，短期提振油价；核心驱动：淡季供 | | 原油 | 谨慎看空 | 给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原 | | ★ | | 油激增，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化， | | | | 俄乌以及南美地缘进展。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 成本支撑下降，需求下降，液化气承压回落。成本端原油受俄乌地缘扰动， | | LPG | | 震荡调整，大趋势仍向下，沙特上调 12 月份 CP 合同价，但盘面已计价； | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 供需方面，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70%左右，下游化工需求存在韧性； | | | | 库存端改善，港口与厂内库存环比下降。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 现货跟涨不足，基差走弱，谨慎看待反弹高度。国内开工季节性回升，月 | | L | 空头盘整 | 内到港资源充足，供给端整体依旧充足 ...

期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 从供需结构来看，由于供给端压力释放与需求刚性增长不足的矛盾主导，叠加国际市场联动与政策托底博弈。供给压力成为价格核 心制约...... 油料供需平稳，维持震荡格局 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 投资咨询号：Z0023055 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询号：Z0023045 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 白旭宇 期货研究报告 | 油料年报 2025-11-30 油料供需平稳，维持震荡格局 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 薛钧元 010-64405663 xuejunyuan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - Supply exceeds demand, and cost support weakens, so PP is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate rose 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week-on-week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years; the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstrings, remained flat at 44.24%, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On November 27, there was little change in maintenance devices, PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 83%, at a neutral to low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstrings remained at around 31% [1][4] - Petrochemical destocking slowed down in November, and current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral to high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - Crude oil prices declined due to the lack of impact on Russia's oil production from new sanctions and the push for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - A new 400,000-ton/year production capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid-October, and there was a slight decrease in maintenance devices recently [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions, closing at 6,295 yuan/ton, down 0.03%, and the position volume decreased by 29,319 lots to 557,253 lots [2] - Spot: Most PP spot prices in various regions were stable, with drawstrings quoted at 6,150 - 6,480 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 27, there was little change in maintenance devices, and PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 83%, at a neutral to low level [1][4] - Demand: As of the week of November 21, PP downstream operating rate rose 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week-on-week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years; the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstrings, remained flat at 44.24%, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory: Petrochemical early inventory on Thursday decreased by 0.5 million tons to 65 million tons week-on-week, 4.5 million tons higher than the same period last year [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 02 contract fell below $63 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $735 per ton week-on-week [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to supply surplus and weakened cost support, PP is expected to experience a weak and volatile trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders week - on - week and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On November 26, the restart of overhauled units such as a single line of Dagang Petrochemical drove the PP enterprise operating rate up to around 83%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard drawstring remained at around 31% [1][4] - In November, the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that the latest sanctions imposed by the US and the West did not affect Russia's oil production. Trump's administration is actively promoting a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky is open to peace talks, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1] - In terms of supply, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of overhauled units has decreased recently. As the downstream enters the end of the peak season, the follow - up of orders for plastic weaving is limited, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 6,258 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,332 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,265 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.42%. The open interest decreased by 19,187 lots to 586,572 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in various regions partially declined. The drawstring was quoted at 6,150 - 6,480 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On November 26, the restart of overhauled units such as a single line of Dagang Petrochemical drove the PP enterprise operating rate up to around 83%, at a moderately low level [4] - Demand side: As of the week of November 21, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 44.24%, with slightly fewer orders week - on - week and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Petrochemical early inventory on Wednesday decreased by 30,000 tons to 655,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons higher than the same period last year. In November, the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw material end - crude oil: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fell below $63 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $735 per ton week - on - week [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - On November 11th, the prices of glass and soda ash weakened. For glass, the recent supply has remained stable overall, but production profits have been squeezed again, increasing the pressure on the market to force supply reduction. In the context of anti - involution, supply disturbance sentiment is likely to ferment. Despite the arrival of the off - season, the overall terminal demand has remained resilient, and inventories have not accumulated significantly. The current glass valuation is not high, and with the relatively strong coal prices, there is cost support. In the short term, large fluctuations in macro - sentiment cause price volatility. In the medium term, the pattern of oversupply persists, and there is significant resistance to price increases. Soda ash generally follows glass, but with relatively average supply - demand conditions, its price is under pressure [2]. 3. Market Data Summary Glass - **Futures Prices**: - For January, May, and September contracts, the closing prices are 1053, 1184, and 1261 respectively, with price drops of 16, 21, and 31, and percentage drops of 1.5%, 1.74%, and 2.4% respectively. - The price spreads between contracts: January - May is - 131, May - September is - 77, and September - January is 208. - **Spot Prices**: In the East China, national, and Northwest regions, the spot prices are 1110, 1240, and 1160 respectively. The basis for the main contract is 57, 187, and 107 respectively [1]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: - For January, May, and September contracts, the closing prices are 1215, 1292, and 1356 respectively, with price drops of 11, 8, and 8, and percentage drops of 0.9%, 0.62%, and 0.59% respectively. - The price spreads between contracts: January - May is - 77, May - September is - 64, and September - January is 141. - **Spot Prices**: In the East China and other regions, the spot prices are 1300 and 1250 respectively. The basis for the main contract is - 265, 85, and 35 respectively [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bearish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish continuation [6] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [6] Core Views of the Report - Overall, most energy and chemical products face downward pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances and oil price trends, while natural gas has some upward support due to seasonal demand [2][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market review**: On October 31, international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.68%, Brent up 0.62%, and SC down 0.67% [7][8] - **Basic logic**: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in Q1 2024. Global crude oil inventories are accelerating accumulation, and the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season [9][10] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold previous short positions and consider adding short positions lightly. Focus on the SC range of [455 - 470] [11] LPG - **Market review**: On October 31, the PG main contract closed at 4,301 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [14] - **Basic logic**: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil. Geopolitical risks have eased, and the cost has declined. Supply has decreased slightly, and demand has some resilience [15] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the PG range of [4250 - 4350] [16] L - **Market review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton, up 0.3% [18] - **Basic logic**: Cost support has weakened. Supply is in a loose pattern, and demand has limited restocking motivation [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Focus on the L range of [6950 - 7100] [20] PP - **Market review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton, up 72 [24] - **Basic logic**: Spot prices have not kept up with the increase, and the basis has weakened. There is high inventory - removal pressure in the future, and oil - based cost support is insufficient [25] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should sell at high prices. Focus on the PP range of [6600 - 6800] [25] PVC - **Market review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton, up 20 [28] - **Basic logic**: Low - valuation support exists, and the loss of a single variety has expanded. Attention should be paid to whether upstream marginal devices can reduce production to ease the supply - demand surplus [29] - **Strategy recommendation**: The market maintains a high contango structure. Industries should hedge at high prices. Focus on the V range of [4600 - 4800] [29] PX - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [30] - **Basic logic**: Supply has domestic reduction and overseas increase. Demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. PXN and PX - MX are at relatively high levels, and the cost of crude oil is under pressure [30] - **Strategy recommendation**: Consider short - selling at high prices. Focus on the PX range of [6580 - 6680] [31] PTA - **Market review**: TA05 closed at 4,644 yuan/ton, TA11 at 4,536 yuan/ton, and TA01 at 4,586 yuan/ton [32] - **Basic logic**: Processing fees are low. Supply pressure is expected to ease due to potential device maintenance. Terminal demand has slightly improved, but there is an expected inventory build - up in November [33] - **Strategy recommendation**: Exit short positions at low prices and consider short - selling at high prices. Focus on the TA range of [4560 - 4650] [34] Ethylene Glycol - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [36] - **Basic logic**: Domestic and overseas devices have increased their loads. Supply pressure is expected to rise, and there is an expected inventory build - up in November. Valuation is low, but there is no upward drive [36] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously and consider short - selling on rebounds. Focus on the EG range of [3980 - 4050] [37] Methanol - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in a unified market review part [40] - **Basic logic**: High inventory suppresses spot price rebounds. Supply pressure is large, and demand is average. Cost support is weak and stable [40] - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Consider going long on the 01 contract at low prices and the MA1 - 5 reverse spread. Focus on the MA range of [2110 - 2190] [42] Urea - **Market review**: UR05 closed at 1,703 yuan/ton, UR09 at 1,736 yuan/ton, and UR01 at 1,625 yuan/ton [43] - **Basic logic**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand improvement is limited. Valuation is low, and there is a risk of downward movement [44] - **Strategy recommendation**: The fundamentals are weak. Consider going long lightly in the medium - to - long term. Focus on the UR range of [1610 - 1640] [46] Natural Gas - **Market review**: On October 31, the NG main contract closed at 4.205 US dollars per million British thermal units, up 2.69% [49] - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical risks have been released, and demand has increased due to the approaching heating season. Supply is relatively sufficient [50] - **Strategy recommendation**: The cooling temperature supports the gas price, but there is upward pressure. Focus on the NG range of [4.050 - 4.250] [51] Asphalt - **Market review**: On October 31, the BU main contract closed at 3,244 yuan/ton, down 0.31% [53] - **Basic logic**: The price is affected by the decline in oil prices. Supply and demand have both decreased, and inventory has declined [54] - **Strategy recommendation**: The valuation is high, and supply is sufficient. Short positions can be held lightly. Focus on the BU range of [3250 - 3350] [55] Glass - **Market review**: FG2601 closed at 1,095 yuan/ton, up 3 [58] - **Basic logic**: There is intense capital gaming. Inventory has increased counter - seasonally, and supply is under pressure due to profitable production processes [59] - **Strategy recommendation**: Cautiously participate. Bullish in the short - term technically, bearish on rebounds in the medium - term. Focus on the FG range of [1080 - 1130] [59] Soda Ash - **Market review**: SA2601 closed at 1,209 yuan/ton, down 26 [62] - **Basic logic**: It rebounds with the black building materials sector. Inventory has slightly decreased, but it is still at a high level. Supply is expected to increase [63] - **Strategy recommendation**: Industries should sell at high prices. Hold the long position of the soda - glass spread. Focus on the SA range of [1220 - 1270] [63]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously bearish on crude oil, LPG, L, PP, ethylene glycol, methanol, urea, and natural gas [1][3][6] - Bearish consolidation on L and PP [1] - Bearish rebound on PVC, glass, and soda ash [1][6] - Cautiously bullish on PX and PTA [1][3] Core Views - The core drivers of the oil market are the supply surplus in the off - season and macro - positive factors, with the oil price center expected to decline [9]. - LPG is affected by the cost - end oil price correction and the low basis, with the price likely to correct [14]. - L and PP face cost support weakening and high inventory pressure, with bearish consolidation trends [19][24]. - PVC has low - valuation support but faces supply - demand surplus contradictions, with a bearish rebound situation [28]. - PX has short - term supply - demand improvement but limited cost - end rebound height, with opportunities for both long and short positions [30][31]. - PTA has slightly improved supply and demand, but the medium - and long - term supply is expected to be loose, with short - term rebound opportunities [33][34]. - Ethylene glycol has a low valuation but lacks upward drivers, with a short - term weakening trend [36][37]. - Methanol has high inventory pressure, but there are opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [40][42]. - Urea has a relatively loose supply, with short - term upward pressure and long - term opportunities to go long at low prices [44][46]. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded slightly, with WTI up 0.55%, Brent up 0.77%, and SC down 1.54% [8]. - **Basic Logic**: Sanctions on Russia and macro - positive factors support the oil price, but the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to decline [9]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ may increase production in December, Indian oil imports increased in September, and US commercial crude inventories decreased last week [10]. - **Strategy**: Hold previous short positions and consider adding short positions lightly. Focus on the SC range of [455 - 470] [11]. LPG - **Market Review**: On October 29, the PG main contract closed at 4,287 yuan/ton, up 0.61% [13]. - **Basic Logic**: The price is anchored to the cost - end oil price. The short - term geopolitical risk has eased, and the cost - end has corrected. The basis is at a low level [14]. - **Strategy**: Try short positions lightly. Focus on the PG range of [4250 - 4350] [15]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,009 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [18]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is weakening, supply is loose, and demand replenishment power is insufficient [19]. - **Strategy**: The industry sells hedges at high prices, and short positions are preferred at high prices in the high - production cycle. Focus on the L range of [6950 - 7100] [19]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan [23]. - **Basic Logic**: The basis is weakening, upstream device maintenance has increased, but the demand side faces high de - stocking pressure, and oil - based cost support is insufficient [24]. - **Strategy**: The industry sells hedges at high prices, and short positions are followed by short - term cost rebounds. Focus on the PP range of [6600 - 6800] [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Low - valuation support exists, but the supply - demand surplus contradiction is prominent. Attention should be paid to whether upstream marginal devices can reduce production [28]. - **Strategy**: The industry conducts hedging at high prices, and short - term long positions can be lightly participated in. Focus on the V range of [4600 - 4800] [28]. PX - **Market Review**: The PX futures price showed an upward trend [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices have reduced their loads, demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken, and the cost - end oil price rebound is limited [30]. - **Strategy**: Try long positions lightly in the short term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices, and focus on expanding downstream processing fees. Focus on the PX range of [6620 - 6720] [31]. PTA - **Market Review**: The PTA futures price showed a slight increase [32]. - **Basic Logic**: New device production is imminent, but processing fees are low, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. Terminal demand has improved slightly but is unstable, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in November [33]. - **Strategy**: Chase long positions lightly in the short term, focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds in the medium and long term, and focus on expanding TA processing fees. Focus on the TA range of [4610 - 4680] [34]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The ethylene glycol futures price showed a decline [35]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, overseas devices have increased their loads slightly, supply pressure is expected to increase, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation in November. The valuation is low but lacks upward drivers [36]. - **Strategy**: Participate in short - term long positions lightly and pay attention to short - selling opportunities during rebounds. Focus on the EG range of [4060 - 4140] [37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: High inventory suppresses the spot price [40]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure is still high, demand has improved slightly, and cost support is weak and stable. Pay attention to the impact of Iranian "gas restrictions" [40]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously, focus on going long on the 01 contract at low prices, and focus on MA1 - 5 reverse spreads. Focus on the MA range of [2235 - 2285] [42]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures price showed a slight increase [43]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, demand has improved slightly, inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists. Be vigilant against downward risks [44]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously, and try long positions lightly in the medium and long term. Focus on the UR range of [1635 - 1660] [46].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - In the short term, there is a supply - demand mismatch due to strong terminal demand and continuous destocking of social inventory, pushing up prices. The cost support moves up due to rising ore prices, so prices are likely to move upwards. However, as prices rise, hedging positions on the supply side are gradually released, with lithium mica lithium extraction as the main incremental supply. In the long term, the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and capacity clearance is still awaited [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 78,500 with a rise of 1,950; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 76,300 with a rise of 2,000 [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has a price of 925 with a rise of 19; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) has a price of 1,265 with a rise of 45; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) has a price of 2,065 with a rise of 75; phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) has a price of 7,415 with a rise of 165; phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) has a price of 8,825 with a rise of 225 [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 35,440 with a rise of 470; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 157,500 with a rise of 300; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 138,200 with a rise of 1,100; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 137,350 with a rise of 400 [2] Price Differences - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,200 with a change of - 50; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract product is - 3,140 with a change of 2,210; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 680 with a change of - 60; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 840 with a change of 60 [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 130,366 with a change of - 2,292; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 33,681; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 55,275 with a change of - 2,460; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 41,410 with a change of 770; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 27,335 with a change of - 404 [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 79,394, and the profit is - 2,006; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 83,024, and the profit is - 7,646 [3] Industry News - Apian Capital Advisory, a UK private equity firm, is collaborating with the International Finance Corporation under the World Bank to launch a $1 - billion critical minerals, metals, and mining fund focusing on emerging markets [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the commodities in the energy and chemical sector are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", with some rated as "Bearish" or "Bearish Consolidation" [1][3][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical market is bearish, mainly due to factors such as oversupply, geopolitical tensions, and weakening demand [1][3][6] 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply surplus and geopolitical easing lead to weak oil prices. OPEC+ plans to expand production in November, increasing supply pressure. Entering the consumption off - season, US inventories are continuously accumulating [1] - **Strategy**: Partially take profit on short positions. Focus on the range of SC [430 - 440] [12] LPG - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical speculation causes a rebound, but the cost - end oil price drags down, and the upside is pressured. There are concerns about increased transportation costs, and the basis weakens [1] - **Strategy**: Use a double - option strategy. Focus on the range of PG [4200 - 4300] [17] L (PE) - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation [1] - **Main Logic**: Spot prices have not stopped falling, and the basis weakens significantly. New production capacity is put into operation, and supply remains loose. Demand is in the peak season, but restocking power is insufficient [21] - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of L [6800 - 7000] [21] PP - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation [1] - **Main Logic**: Cost support weakens, and the basis weakens. Post - holiday inventory reduction is slow, and supply - demand remains loose. There is high inventory reduction pressure in the future [26] - **Strategy**: The market maintains a contango structure. Industries should hedge at high prices. Focus on the range of PP [6500 - 6700] [26] PVC - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish consolidation [1] - **Main Logic**: Short - term device maintenance leads to a slight reduction in social inventory, but supply is strong and demand is weak. New production capacity will be released, and there is uncertainty in export anti - dumping duties [30] - **Strategy**: Treat the short - term rebound with caution and take profit on short positions. Focus on the range of V [4600 - 4800] [30] PX - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the oil price is under pressure. The PXN spread is relatively high this year, and the short - process PX - MX spread is also high [33] - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of PX [6310 - 6400] [34] PTA - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply - side start - up load increases, and demand has a "Silver October" consumption peak expectation. The cost - end oil price drops, and the processing fee is low [37] - **Strategy**: Take profit on short positions at low prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of TA [4400 - 4460] [38] MEG - **Core Viewpoint**: Bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Domestic devices increase production, overseas devices change little. Terminal consumption improves in the short term but is under pressure in the long term. New device production and inventory accumulation [41] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of EG [4020 - 4090] [42] Methanol - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish in the short - term, bullish in the long - term [1] - **Main Logic**: The US tariff policy is short - term bearish. Supply pressure is large, demand is improving, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support is stabilizing [46] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of MA [2280 - 2320] [48] Urea - **Core Viewpoint**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, domestic demand is weak, and exports are relatively good. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [51] - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are weak, but the valuation is not high. Pay attention to the Indian urea tender. Consider going long with a light position in the medium - to - long - term [3]