Oil Market - The latest EIA weekly data shows an unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, indicating significant inventory pressure and a supply surplus that limits the short-term upward potential of oil prices [1] - Oil prices initially rebounded to nearly $67 per barrel due to concerns over US-Iran tensions, but retreated after President Trump indicated a wait-and-see approach regarding the situation in Iran [1] - The global crude oil supply-demand structure for Q1 2026 suggests that unless conflicts escalate, the short-term upside for oil prices is expected to be limited [1] Precious Metals - The US reported a 3% increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for November, the highest since July, and retail sales rose by 0.6%, slightly above expectations, indicating a strong economic backdrop for precious metals [2] - The geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran continue to support the overall strength of precious metals [2] Copper Market - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations, with a focus on geopolitical risks and the impact of tariffs on trade [3] - The current spot premium for copper has narrowed to $44, indicating market adjustments as traders await inventory updates [3] Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is seeing high volatility, with prices testing historical highs but facing challenges from speculative trading and high inventory levels [4] - The profit margin for aluminum production remains above 8000 yuan per ton, prompting producers to consider hedging strategies [4] Zinc Market - The zinc market is witnessing increased capital inflow, leading to heightened bullish sentiment, although high prices are negatively impacting consumption [7] - Zinc prices have recovered all losses from 2025, but there is growing pressure for a price correction, with a focus on support levels around 23,000 yuan per ton [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing active trading, with upstream lithium salt producers shifting sales strategies towards more spot sales [11] - Total market inventory has increased by 300 tons to 110,000 tons, while downstream inventory has decreased, indicating a mixed supply-demand dynamic [11] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market is facing weak supply and demand dynamics, with production cuts in northern regions and reduced demand from the organic silicon sector [12] - Current prices for industrial silicon are stable, but the market outlook remains cautious due to ongoing production adjustments [12] Steel Market - The steel market is showing slight price increases, but demand remains weak, particularly in the real estate sector, leading to cautious market sentiment [14] - Steel production is gradually recovering, but overall demand from downstream industries continues to decline [14] Iron Ore Market - The iron ore market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with increased domestic port inventories and a seasonal decline in demand [15] - The market sentiment is mixed, with structural imbalances persisting and expectations for continued price volatility [15] Fertilizer Market - The urea market is seeing strong price increases driven by improved factory orders and seasonal demand ahead of spring [23] - The methanol market is also showing strength due to geopolitical tensions, although signs of weakening demand are emerging [24] Agricultural Products - The soybean market is under pressure from high import volumes and increased domestic processing rates, with expectations for continued weak price movements [35] - The corn market is experiencing strong fluctuations, with low overall inventory levels and increased demand from downstream users as the Spring Festival approaches [39] Livestock Market - The live pig market is seeing upward price movements, with expectations for continued pressure on supply as the Spring Festival approaches [40] - The egg market is showing signs of strength due to reduced supply and increased demand ahead of the holiday season [41]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the industry is mainly in an oscillatory operation. The downstream procurement enthusiasm for coking coal and coke has increased, and the spot price of coke has started to rise. However, in January, coal mines resumed production, and Mongolian coal imports rebounded to a high level, so the high - supply pressure still exists, and the futures prices have corrected from high levels. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking expectations support the iron ore price, but high inventory restricts the upward space. In the off - season, demand has seasonally weakened. With the gradual resumption of production by steel mills, the inventory accumulation pressure on the steel end has become more obvious, and fundamental contradictions have begun to gradually accumulate, suppressing the valuation of the steel futures market. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and there are expected disturbances on the supply side. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking on the demand side support the ore price. In reality, both the supply and demand sides need to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The spot price has weakened, but the futures market still shows resilience. Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and arrivals are expected to remain at a high level. The demand side has a mixed situation of blast furnace maintenance and resumption, and the inventory pressure is still accumulating [1][7]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventories are relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, supporting the demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Recently, leading steel enterprises in East China announced a price increase of 50 yuan/ton, and it is expected that the spot price will follow the increase [1][8]. 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, and the sharp rise in the futures market may drive the entry of spot - futures and speculative demand for procurement, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: As the New Year approaches, the winter restocking intensity gradually increases, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be alleviated, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the futures and spot prices still have upward momentum [2]. 3. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The pattern of loose supply and demand of manganese silicon continues, the upstream has great pressure to destock, and it is difficult to transmit costs downward. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling pressure from hedging. In the medium term, the futures price is still expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation [2]. - **Silicon Iron**: Currently, the supply and demand of the silicon iron market are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, it is expected that the futures price will follow the sector [2]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expected disturbances in the supply, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in oversupply. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [2][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in oversupply. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [2][14]. 5. Steel - The cost provides support, but the inventory suppresses. The futures market oscillates. The spot market trading is weak, and the demand has seasonally weakened. The overall steel inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, and fundamental contradictions have begun to gradually accumulate [7]. 6. Indexes - **Comprehensive Index**: On January 13, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2425.27, down 0.30%; the commodity 20 index was 2779.12, down 0.28%; the industrial product index was 2348.14, down 0.52% [106]. - **Steel Industry Chain Index**: On January 13, 2026, the steel industry chain index was 2024.77, with a daily decline of 0.75%, a decline of 0.72% in the past 5 days, an increase of 6.09% in the past month, and an increase of 2.47% since the beginning of the year [108].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers have short - term impacts on oil prices, but supply surplus restricts upward space [2] - In the precious metals market, due to employment data and geopolitical chaos, there are opportunities for breakthrough and re - entry [3] - Different metals and commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics, and investment strategies vary accordingly [4][5][6] Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions in Iran and the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers drive short - term price recovery, but supply surplus in Q1 2026 limits upward space [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is directly affected by geopolitical risks, with potential demand increase; low - sulfur fuel oil faces supply increase pressure [22] - **Asphalt**: Oil price rebound, but asphalt lags behind. Venezuelan oil supply may impact domestic asphalt in February [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: US employment data and geopolitical chaos lead to precious metals challenging previous highs, with investment opportunities [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Price oscillates, affected by US employment and geopolitical situation, with a previous option strategy [4] - **Aluminum**: Short - term funds drive price up, approaching historical high, with high profit for aluminum plants [5] - **Zinc**: Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, with cost support, and price oscillates in a range [8] - **Lead**: Price oscillates in a low - level range, affected by inventory and cost [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Market oscillates, with changes in inventory and price influenced by policies [10] - **Tin**: Price has support, with attention on inventory changes and high option volatility [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Price oscillates at a high level, with active trading and strong support from the ore end [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: Price oscillates weakly due to supply - demand imbalance [13] - **Polysilicon**: Policy affects demand, with supply surplus and price seeking cost support [14] - **Iron and Steel** - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Price oscillates, with changes in demand, output, and inventory, and profit margin repair for steel mills [15] - **Iron Ore**: Price rebounds, with changes in supply and demand, and inventory increase [16] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Price oscillates strongly, affected by supply - demand and policies [17][18] - **Silicon Manganese & Ferrosilicon**: Price drops, with different supply - demand situations, and callback buying is recommended [19][20] Chemicals - **Urea**: Price oscillates strongly in a range, with expected increase in daily output and approaching spring agricultural demand [24] - **Methanol**: Import is expected to decrease, but high inventory and downstream feedback may suppress the market [25] - **Pure Benzene**: Price oscillates, with expected reduction in far - month production and consideration of positive spread arbitrage [26] - **Styrene**: Price consolidates, affected by raw material inventory [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Market sentiment is different, with changes in supply, demand, and price [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC price drops, with potential for long - term capacity reduction and cost support; caustic soda oscillates with supply - demand pressure [29] - **PX & PTA**: Demand will decline during the Spring Festival, with cost support from oil price, and different expectations for PX and PTA [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply changes, with pressure in the short - term and potential improvement in Q2 [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: Demand weakens, with price following raw materials and different supply - demand situations [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: US and South American soybean production data are expected, with South American weather and US exports to be concerned, and price oscillating weakly [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Market oscillates, affected by Indonesian policy and Malaysian inventory [37] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Market oscillates weakly, affected by the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister [38] - **Soybean No.1**: Price shows different trends, with attention on policies and market guidance [39] - **Corn**: Price oscillates widely, with low inventory and high auction performance [40] - **Pig**: Price is strong in the short - term, but supply pressure is high before the Spring Festival, and there may be a secondary bottom in the medium - long term [41] - **Egg**: Price is strong, with存栏 decline and bullish expectations for H1 2026 contracts [42] - **Cotton**: Price adjusts, with changes in inventory and demand, and attention on policy implementation [43] - **Sugar**: Price oscillates, with different production situations in India and Thailand, and expected increase in Guangxi [44] - **Apple**: Price rebounds, with increased demand for Spring Festival stocking and concerns about inventory removal [45] - **Wood**: Price is low, with low inventory providing support [46] - **Pulp**: Price oscillates, with limited upward space due to weak demand [47] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Policy may push up short - term freight rates, but the long - term impact is uncertain [21] - **Stock Index**: A - shares are likely to continue to oscillate strongly, with growth and cyclical styles dominant [48] - **Treasury Bond**: Price drops slightly, with focus on the flattening of the yield curve [49]

Core Viewpoint - The first fuel price adjustment of 2026 has been suspended due to insufficient price changes in the international oil market, with the adjustment amount being less than 50 yuan per ton [3][4]. Group 1: Fuel Price Adjustment - The average price of crude oil in the first ten working days of January 2026 was $60.24 per barrel, showing a slight increase of 0.76% compared to the previous cycle [4]. - The next retail fuel price adjustment window will open on January 20, 2026, with a high probability of an increase in fuel prices due to ongoing supply risks and geopolitical tensions [6][7]. Group 2: Global Oil Market Dynamics - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a daily surplus of crude oil in the market ranging from 3.8 million to 4.09 million barrels, accounting for 4% of global demand, indicating a prevailing oversupply situation [5]. - OPEC+ has decided to maintain its production plan established in November 2025 and will continue to suspend production increases in February and March 2026, which may support oil prices in the short term [5][6].

Group 1 - The fuel costs for residents' driving and logistics transportation will remain unchanged in the next half month due to the decision to not adjust fuel prices in early January 2026 [1] - The average price of crude oil during the current pricing cycle is reported at $60.24 per barrel, with a slight increase of 0.76% compared to the previous cycle, indicating a potential price adjustment of around 30 yuan per ton, which is below the 50 yuan adjustment threshold [1] - The domestic fuel prices are anchored to global crude oil prices, influenced by geopolitical risks and weak supply-demand structures in the global oil market [1] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a daily surplus of crude oil in the market ranging from 3.8 million to 4.09 million barrels for the year, accounting for 4% of global demand, establishing a supply surplus as the main market trend [2] - OPEC+ has announced that it will maintain its production plan established in November 2025 and will continue to suspend production increases in February and March 2026 [2] - The next retail fuel price adjustment window will open on January 20, 2026, with a high probability of price increases due to ongoing supply risks from geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ decisions [3] Group 3 - The demand for oil is expected to be supported by the festive atmosphere in the West and the cold winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere [4]

Group 1 - The silver market has reached a critical level with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hitting 93.86, the highest since January 1980, indicating an overheated market [1] - Silver futures closed at 18,131 CNY per kilogram on December 25, 2025, with a daily increase of 5.50%, reflecting multiple instances of significant daily fluctuations throughout December [1] - The precious metals market is experiencing unprecedented growth, with gold prices surpassing $4,400 per ounce and silver's annual increase nearing 150% [3] Group 2 - The surge in precious metals is driven by a shift in global monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve completing three rate cuts totaling 175 basis points in 2025, leading to a lower opportunity cost for holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver [3] - Geopolitical risks, including tensions in the Middle East and escalating conflicts in Europe, have added a strong safe-haven premium to precious metals [3] - Central banks, including the People's Bank of China, have been increasing their gold reserves, with China adding over 41 tons in the past 13 months, contributing to a global gold ETF holding nearing 4,000 tons [3] Group 3 - The imbalance in supply and demand is a key factor for silver's leadership in the market, with industrial demand rising by 15% due to a 30% increase in global photovoltaic installations, while supply has faced a shortfall of 187.6 million ounces [4] - The capital market's influx of funds has amplified the price surge, with the China Universal Silver Futures LOF fund seeing a premium of 45% over its net asset value [4] - Regulatory measures have been implemented to curb excessive speculation in the silver futures market, including trading limits and increased transaction fees [5] Group 4 - The soaring prices of precious metals are beginning to suppress consumer demand, with rising costs affecting purchasing decisions for items like platinum jewelry [7] - There are significant divergences in predictions for the precious metals market in 2026, with forecasts for gold prices ranging from $4,900 to over $5,000 per ounce, and some predictions suggesting gold could reach $10,000 [7] - Analysts caution that the current market dynamics are driven more by sentiment and capital flows rather than solid supply-demand fundamentals, indicating potential risks for a rapid price correction [9]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Views - The nickel market is experiencing a price rebound, but it's mainly due to the game between capital sentiment and policy expectations rather than a substantial improvement in the supply - demand structure. The stainless - steel market is caught in a game between strong cost expectations and weak real - world demand. Nickel is expected to remain strong, while stainless steel is expected to maintain a volatile trend [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On January 5, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 135,000 RMB/ton, closed at 134,100 RMB/ton, a 0.57% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 366,893 (-774,634) lots, and the open interest was 134,729 (1934) lots. The high - level oscillation of the contract reflects intensified market game between supply contraction expectations and the reality of the off - season demand. The current price rebound is a result of the game between capital sentiment and policy expectations [1] - The nickel ore market has a calm trading atmosphere, with limited resources and stable prices. In the Philippines, mines are waiting for the new round of northern mine tenders and have a bullish outlook. Rainfall has affected shipping efficiency. In Indonesia, the January (Phase I) 2026 domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.05 - 0.08 USD/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25, with a premium range of +25 - 26 [2] - Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 142,200 RMB/ton, up 1,100 RMB/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was okay. Jinchuan nickel was in short supply. The spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were stable or declined. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 38,424 (758) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,354 (72) tons [2] Strategy - The fundamentals show high inventories and oversupply, but with frequent positive policies from Indonesia and nickel having oscillated at the bottom for a long time, it's likely to attract the attention of profitable funds from precious metals and non - ferrous metals. It is expected to remain strong. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips for single - sided trading, while there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On January 5, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2602 opened at 13,150 RMB/ton and closed at 13,075 RMB/ton. The trading volume was 85,130 (-60,400) lots, and the open interest was 72,144 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a trend of rising first and then falling, oscillating downward, centered around the game between "strong cost expectations and weak real demand". Although it continued the pre - holiday optimistic trend at the opening, it was dragged down by the black - metal sector during the session [3] - The market activity increased, and spot quotes rose. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 13,250 (+175) RMB/ton, and in Foshan market, it was also 13,250 (+175) RMB/ton. The 304/2B premium was 195 - 395 RMB/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 5.00 RMB/nickel point to 927.5 RMB/nickel point [3] Strategy - With some macro - level positive factors realized and the inventory declining for four consecutive weeks, but the downstream demand being weak in the off - season, the stainless - steel price is expected to remain volatile, closely following the Shanghai nickel price trend. The short - term operation strategy is to wait and see. It is not advisable to blindly chase the high in the current volatile situation. The single - sided strategy is neutral, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that there are currently no expectations, policies, or positive factors in the short term, making it difficult for steel prices to improve [2][7] - The market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend, primarily driven by short-selling pressure in the rebar and hot-rolled coil sectors [2][8] - The cost support logic has diverged, with iron ore remaining strong while coking coal and coke prices are dragged down by falling crude oil prices [2][7] Group 2 - The driving logic for the steel market in 2026 emphasizes the importance of focusing on facts rather than opinions, as the market is currently in a phase of supply-demand and cost logic competition [3][8] - The recent Venezuelan incident did not lead to an increase in oil prices as expected; instead, the market believes that the U.S. will quickly resolve the situation, leading to an increase in oil supply and further pressure on the energy sector [3][8] - The current economic cycle is characterized by a quick upward movement and a slow downward movement, necessitating cautious policy responses to mitigate risks [3][8] Group 3 - The supply-demand structure is affected by two main factors: risk control policies limiting downstream demand and growth stabilization policies prioritizing livelihood and regional stability over profit [3][8] - Capital flows in the steel market are shifting from speculative profit-seeking to arbitrage or hedging, as industry funds are increasingly entering the capital market, leading to reduced price volatility [3][8] - The three identified factors are expected to continue influencing the price fluctuations and driving logic of steel prices in the future [4][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant divergence within the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by geopolitical risks and supply constraints, leading to a strong performance in copper, aluminum, and precious metals, while lead prices show a weak rebound lacking fundamental support [1][2] - The surge in copper and aluminum prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions from key production areas, which have created a narrative of scarcity in industrial metals, further fueled by positive market sentiment and capital inflows [1][3] - Lead prices experienced a daily increase of 125 yuan/ton to 17,425 yuan/ton; however, this rebound is characterized as "virtual fire," primarily driven by market sentiment rather than improvements in the underlying fundamentals, as evidenced by weak demand and increasing inventory pressures [1][2] Group 2 - Leading companies in the sector are adopting different strategies in response to market conditions, with copper, aluminum, and precious metals firms focusing on capacity expansion and resource allocation, while lead industry players are concentrating on cost control and cash flow management to navigate the current phase of industry pressure [2][3] - The short-term outlook suggests that copper and aluminum prices are likely to remain strong due to supportive supply narratives and macroeconomic expectations, while lead prices are expected to face downward pressure from rising inventories and weak demand, with a projected trading range of 17,100 to 17,500 yuan/ton [3][4] - The overall market for non-ferrous metals is characterized by a mix of strong and weak performances, necessitating a careful approach to investment opportunities, particularly in distinguishing between strong commodities like copper and aluminum and weaker ones like lead [4]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - The precious metals market is showing strong signals, with gold and silver reaching historical highs due to a combination of factors including risk aversion, a weakening dollar, and technical resonance [1][2] - Silver has outperformed gold, indicating a shift of funds towards high-elasticity assets, reflecting an increase in market pricing for future uncertainties [1][2] - Platinum has also reached new highs, suggesting that funds are diversifying within the entire precious metals sector rather than being limited to traditional safe-haven assets [1][2] Group 2: Industrial Metals Insights - Copper prices have experienced a historic breakthrough, which is seen as a reflection of long-term supply and demand dynamics rather than short-term sentiment [3][4] - There is an expectation of tightening global supply in the coming years, coupled with structural demand increases for copper due to energy transition, making it a key target for investment [3][4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategy - The volatility of certain high-risk financial products serves as a reminder for the market to pay attention to valuation and risk alignment [4] - As prices rise beyond fundamental rhythms, any corrections could be amplified, necessitating a focus on the underlying price logic of assets rather than merely chasing short-term gains [4] - Both gold and silver are in a strong bullish trend, with key resistance levels being tested; as long as core support levels are not breached, the medium-term outlook for precious metals remains optimistic [4]