Core Viewpoint - In 2025, both international gold and silver prices reached historical highs, with gold hitting $4500 per ounce and silver soaring to $69.81 per ounce, marking significant annual increases of 71% and 137% respectively, indicating a strong bull market for precious metals [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices surged due to several factors, including U.S. tariffs increasing demand for gold as a safe haven, ongoing geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and continuous purchases by global central banks [2][3]. - The price of gold experienced a significant increase of 30% from January to mid-April, followed by a period of fluctuation until mid-August, where it entered a second upward trend driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and renewed tariff disputes [3][4]. - A notable drop of $236 per ounce occurred on October 21, attributed to crowded long positions in the market, despite fundamental factors suggesting a potential resolution to geopolitical tensions [3]. Group 2: Silver Price Dynamics - Silver prices outperformed gold, with a year-to-date increase of 137%, driven by a combination of liquidity support, a shift in investment focus towards silver, and a recovery in industrial demand, particularly in the solar sector [4][5]. - The silver price saw a dramatic rise of 87% from July 1 to December 22, influenced by the return of investment demand and a tightening supply situation [5][6]. - Despite potential declines in commodity demand due to rising prices, historical trends suggest that silver will continue to follow gold's upward trajectory, benefiting from cyclical buying and its inherent monetary properties [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Precious Metals - The market anticipates that the bull market for precious metals will persist into 2026, driven by ongoing global monetary system restructuring, rising debt cycles, and geopolitical tensions [6][7]. - The expectation of continued fiscal and monetary easing in the U.S. is seen as a foundational support for gold prices, with potential fiscal deficits projected to rise significantly [6][7]. - Silver is expected to maintain its upward trend, with a higher likelihood of outperforming gold due to its cyclical demand and elastic supply characteristics, particularly in a re-inflationary environment [8].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold and silver prices have reached historical highs in 2025, with gold at $4500 per ounce (up 71% year-to-date) and silver at $69.81 per ounce (up 137% year-to-date), indicating a strong bull market for precious metals [2][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices surged significantly in 2025, driven by factors such as U.S. tariffs increasing demand for gold as a safe haven, ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and continuous purchases by global central banks [3][4]. - The price of gold experienced a 30% increase from January to mid-April, followed by a period of consolidation until mid-August, where it remained stable despite geopolitical tensions [3]. - From mid-August to mid-October, gold prices rose by 26% as the Federal Reserve initiated a rate cut cycle and U.S.-China tariff disputes escalated, leading to a market environment favoring gold [4]. Group 2: Silver Price Dynamics - Silver prices have outperformed gold, with a year-to-date increase of 137%, compared to gold's 71%, driven by a return to the gold-silver ratio and inflationary trading [6][7]. - The first half of the year saw silver prices rise alongside gold, but after April, concerns over tariff escalations shifted market dynamics, leading to increased inventory pressures [6]. - A significant increase in silver prices occurred from July to December, with an 87% rise attributed to factors such as the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations and renewed demand in the photovoltaic sector [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Precious Metals - The market anticipates that the bull market for precious metals will continue into 2026, driven by factors such as global monetary system restructuring, ongoing debt cycles, and geopolitical tensions [8][9]. - The expectation of continued fiscal and monetary policy easing in the U.S. is seen as a foundational support for rising gold prices, with potential federal deficits increasing [9]. - Despite potential challenges in the supply-demand structure for silver, historical trends suggest that silver will continue to follow gold's upward trajectory, benefiting from cyclical demand and high elasticity [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - **2025 Review**: In 2025, Trump's reforms led to a weakening of the US dollar, and the difficulties in managing US dollar liquidity contributed to the rise of TACO trading. China maintained credit expansion and asset price prosperity due to the decline in external financial headwinds. However, the transmission from credit expansion to inflation was slow, and the economic structure showed a clear "virtual - real" divide [6][9]. - **2026 Outlook**: The key point in 2026 is whether the US can effectively maintain the stability of its yield curve. The pressure on US liquidity management may catalyze international cooperation and policy coordination. China's macro - policies aim to tap economic potential and expand domestic demand, promoting price recovery and the maturation of new productive forces [7]. - **2026 Asset Outlook**: In 2026, the operation of major asset classes will likely transition from the "recovery" to the "expansion" quadrant. The RMB is likely to appreciate with attention to the appreciation rhythm. Treasury bonds will remain in a volatile market. The stock market is expected to shift from valuation - driven to profit - driven, and domestic commodities will gradually bottom out and move upward [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - economic and Major Asset Performance Review 1.1 Global Economy - In 2025, the US dollar was initially strong under the "Trump trade" expectation but weakened due to challenges in the offshore financial system. The Fed's attempts to control the "loose" rhythm led to on - shore liquidity tensions. The difficulty in balancing US dollar liquidity formed the basis of TACO trading. The global economic cycle supported a slight weakening of the US dollar [9][10]. 1.2 Chinese Economy - China's economy in 2025 was characterized by the repair of credit factors. With a weakening US dollar index, China maintained a loose monetary policy and increased fiscal deficits. The steepening of the Chinese bond yield curve was significant for credit expansion. However, the transmission from credit to inflation was blocked, and the economic structure showed a "virtual - real" divide [16][17]. 1.3 Policy Framework - In 2025, complex geopolitical games and domestic economic policies were interlinked. The Fed adopted a gradual easing policy to avoid excessive weakness of the US dollar. China's macro - policies were introduced gradually, focusing on maintaining external balance and shifting towards "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" [23][28]. 2. Outlook for 2026 2.1 Policy Logic: US Policy Constraints 2.1.1 Fed's Constraints - The Fed faces increasing difficulty in controlling the yield curve. After the Silicon Valley Bank shock, the Fed tried to repair the inverted yield curve. However, in H2 2025, due to the low level of RRP, the Fed had to stop shrinking its balance sheet [30][31]. 2.1.2 US Fiscal Constraints - The US fiscal deficit is expected to remain at around 6% of GDP in 2026. The OBBBA - related tax - refund policy will widen the deficit gap in H1, but it may be offset by increased tariff revenues. The US Treasury may continue to issue more short - term bonds, and the Fed is expected to purchase over $400 billion of short - term bonds in 2026 [33][40]. 2.1.3 Summary - The Fed needs to cooperate with the US Treasury to maintain the stability of the yield curve. The management of the US Treasury yield curve is not only related to domestic policy trade - offs but also to international games and cooperation [47]. 2.2 Macro - game Coordinate System: Yield Curve and US Dollar Combination 2.2.1 Yield Curve Steepening Scenarios - **Scenario A (Steep Yield Curve, Weak US Dollar)**: A controllable steep yield curve and a weak US dollar can bring positive effects such as alleviating inflation pressure and promoting global economic recovery. However, an uncontrollable steep yield curve may lead to debt selling pressure. The positive scenario is of high probability, while the negative scenario is of low probability [50][57][62]. - **Scenario B (Steep Yield Curve, Strong US Dollar)**: If the Fed successfully controls the yield curve and the confidence in the US dollar is restored, it can lead to a positive scenario. A crisis - mode scenario is of low probability [63][65]. 2.2.2 Yield Curve Flattening Scenarios - **Scenario C (Flat Yield Curve, Strong US Dollar)**: A controllable flat yield curve and a strong US dollar can reflect the Fed's management ability. A rapid inversion of the yield curve is a low - probability negative scenario [66][68][69]. - **Scenario D (Flat Yield Curve, Weak US Dollar)**: A smooth decline of the yield curve and a weak US dollar can benefit non - US economies. A rapid inversion of the yield curve and a weak US dollar is a low - probability negative scenario [70][72]. 2.2.3 Summary - Managing the yield curve is crucial in 2026. The benchmark scenarios are those where the US Treasury bond can strengthen steadily or the yield curve steepens significantly in H1 and then declines controllably [73][74][76]. 2.3 Cycle Operation: Sino - US Policy Interaction from a Cycle Perspective 2.3.1 Cycle Positioning - Since 2023, the global inventory cycle has lost elasticity. In 2024, the US inventory cycle started to bottom out, and in 2025, China's inventory cycle also reached a low point. In 2026, the global cycle will progress further, and China's inventory cycle will play a more important role [77][80][84]. 2.3.2 Cycle Mechanism - The pressure from China's real - estate cycle and the US's restrictive policies has affected the global inventory cycle. The increasing pressure on US financial market liquidity has promoted Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and laid the foundation for geopolitical and economic stability in 2026 [89][91][94]. 2.3.3 China's Policy Choices - In 2026, China's macro - policies will remain positive, focusing on tapping economic potential and integrating policies. The main focuses are "dual - carbon leadership", "anti - involution", and stabilizing the real - estate market [95]. 3. Major Asset Classes 3.1 Major Asset Coordinate System - The coordinate system for major assets is constructed from the dimensions of real supply - demand and price elasticity. In 2026, major assets are likely to move from the lower - left quadrant to the upper - left quadrant, and the management of the US yield curve and the trend of the US dollar will affect the process [97][100][104]. 3.2 Analysis of Various Assets - **Exchange Rate**: The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately first and then enter a range - bound fluctuation, with a possible range of 6.7 - 7.2. Key factors include the US dollar index and the implementation of domestic demand - stimulating policies [105]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds will remain in a volatile market. If the interest rate is cut by 10bp, the 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.9%. In an optimistic scenario, with a 20bp cut, the range will be 1.55% - 1.85% [106]. - **Stock Market**: The stock market is expected to shift from valuation - driven to profit - driven, with a positive outlook of oscillating upward [107]. - **Commodities**: The commodity market will operate in a pattern of "liquidity support, cycle resonance, and structural differentiation". It may experience wide - range fluctuations in H1 and a "re - inflation" - driven recovery in H2 if policies are effective [115].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Dynamics - The global monetary and fiscal easing expectations are providing strong support for precious metal prices, although some precious metals face potential short-term negative disturbances [1] - The Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in both 2026 and 2027, and has recently conducted technical balance sheet expansion to maintain liquidity [1] - Uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path may affect market expectations for liquidity expansion, potentially disturbing precious metal prices [1] Group 2: Long-term Factors Supporting Precious Metals - Global debt and fiscal deficit expansion, along with ongoing central bank gold purchases, are long-term bullish factors for the precious metals market [2] - Gold and silver prices have risen significantly over the past three years, leading to potential technical selling pressure due to their overweight in the Bloomberg Commodity Index [2] - Despite short-term negative factors, the long-term core trading logic for gold and silver remains unchanged, driven by global "reflation" trades, monetary policy uncertainty, and geopolitical risks [2] Group 3: Platinum and Palladium Market Insights - The global platinum market is expected to face a tight supply-demand situation by 2026, with slow growth in production due to high mining costs and unstable power supply [3] - Platinum demand is supported by stricter automotive emissions standards, with automotive catalysts accounting for 42.5% of global platinum demand [3] - The palladium market is experiencing pressure from the increasing market share of electric vehicles, leading to a less optimistic long-term demand outlook for palladium [3]

Core Viewpoint - The global monetary and fiscal easing expectations are providing strong support for precious metal prices, while certain precious metal varieties face potential short-term negative disturbances [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The monetary policy direction of major global economies is a core factor influencing the commodity market. The Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting phase, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in both 2026 and 2027, and has recently conducted technical balance sheet expansion to maintain liquidity [2] - There is uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, particularly with potential shifts towards "pragmatic monetarism" which may impact market liquidity expectations and disturb precious metal prices [2] - Other major economies are also adjusting their monetary policies, with the Bank of England expected to cut rates by December 2025 and the Bank of Japan potentially raising rates to 0.75% around the same time, creating a generally loose liquidity environment that supports a "bull market" for precious metals [2] Group 2: Long-term Factors Supporting Precious Metals - Global debt and fiscal deficit expansion, along with ongoing central bank gold purchases, are long-term bullish factors for the precious metals market. Gold prices show a strong correlation with the total debt of major global economies [3] - Despite facing short-term negative factors, the long-term core trading logic for gold and silver remains unchanged, driven by global "reflation" trades, monetary policy uncertainties, and geopolitical risks [3] - Continuous increases in gold reserves by central banks, particularly the People's Bank of China since November 2024, provide significant physical demand support for gold prices [3] Group 3: Platinum and Palladium Market Dynamics - The global platinum market is increasingly recognized for its "new energy metal" attributes, with supply constraints due to high mining costs and aging production equipment, while demand is supported by stricter automotive emissions standards [4] - The palladium market is characterized by oligopolistic supply and tightening conditions, but faces long-term demand pressures from the shift towards electric vehicles, which may lead to a more relaxed supply-demand balance by 2026 [4] - Both platinum and palladium are critical industrial and new energy metals, with their supply-demand dynamics evolving due to the energy structure transition [5]

智通财经APP获悉，洛阳钼业(03993)午后涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.09%，报18.86港元，成交4.47亿港 元。 行业层面，国金证券指出，节奏上2026年上半年有望迎来再通胀交易。在美联储历次软着陆降息后，铜 价与美国制造业PMI通常3-6个月企稳回升，本轮降息周期从9月18日降息算起，基本面复苏对应明年一 二季度。此外，在短期宏观偏逆风背景下，铜价之所以维持10500美金以上偏强震荡，价格韧性强于以 往降息后表现，核心支撑在于供给，因此，未来经济基本面好转后，铜价或迎来超越过往的价格弹性表 现。 消息面上，12月3日，富时罗素宣布对富时中国50指数、富时中国A50指数、富时中国A150指数、富时 中国A200指数、富时中国 A400指数的季度审核变更。其中，富时中国A50指数纳入洛阳钼业。本次变 更将于2025年12月19日星期五收盘后生效。瑞银此前指出，洛阳钼业2025年铜产量极有可能超越指引的 60万至66万吨，今年首三季已达54.3万吨，主要受惠于生产线技术升级及供电改善。管理层有信心2026 至27年产量将持续增长，并认为新增产量的贡献可持续。 ...

行业层面，国金证券指出，节奏上2026年上半年有望迎来再通胀交易。在美联储历次软着陆降息后，铜 价与美国制造业PMI通常3-6个月企稳回升，本轮降息周期从9月18日降息算起，基本面复苏对应明年一 二季度。此外，在短期宏观偏逆风背景下，铜价之所以维持10500美金以上偏强震荡，价格韧性强于以 往降息后表现，核心支撑在于供给，因此，未来经济基本面好转后，铜价或迎来超越过往的价格弹性表 现。 洛阳钼业（603993）(03993)午后涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.09%，报18.86港元，成交4.47亿港元。 消息面上，12月3日，富时罗素宣布对富时中国50指数、富时中国A50指数、富时中国A150指数、富时 中国A200指数、富时中国A400指数的季度审核变更。其中，富时中国A50指数纳入洛阳钼业。本次变 更将于2025年12月19日星期五收盘后生效。瑞银此前指出，洛阳钼业2025年铜产量极有可能超越指引的 60万至66万吨，今年首三季已达54.3万吨，主要受惠于生产线技术升级及供电改善。管理层有信心2026 至27年产量将持续增长，并认为新增产量的贡献可持续。 ...

Core Insights - Huachuang Securities highlights four major investment directions for the CSI A500 index: technology innovation, cyclical industries, overseas expansion, and the real estate chain [1] Group 1: Investment Directions - Technology innovation focuses on robust growth at the endpoint and the commercialization of ToB, with an emphasis on the need to digest valuations in the tech sector [1] - Cyclical industries are expected to benefit from price elasticity due to supply clearing, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, coal, construction materials, and machinery [1] - Overseas expansion aims to enhance global competitiveness, with a focus on electric new energy, machinery, communication equipment, and energy metals [1] - The real estate chain is anticipated to recover from mid-term bottoming out, with high potential in construction, building materials, home furnishings, appliances, and property management [1] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The technology manufacturing sector is seeing a steady increase in return on equity (ROE) amid the transition of old and new growth drivers [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider the CSI A500 ETF (159338), which is leading in the number of accounts among similar products, being more than three times that of the second-ranked fund [1]

Group 1 - The core focus of the Zhongzheng A500 industry allocation is on four major directions: technology innovation, cyclical recovery, overseas expansion, and the real estate chain [1] - The technology sector is expected to benefit from the technology competition under the Kondratiev wave, with valuation ceilings likely to continue expanding, particularly in sub-sectors such as optical components, PCB, and integrated circuits [1] - Cyclical industries are performing well in the context of re-inflation trading, especially in supply-constrained sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, coal, manufacturing (machinery, pharmaceuticals, transportation), consumption (aquaculture, textiles), and technology (consumer electronics, optical optoelectronics) [1] Group 2 - The overseas expansion logic emphasizes global capacity layout, focusing on high-growth sectors such as electric new energy, machinery, and communications [1] - The real estate chain is currently in a mid-term bottoming phase, with high-risk reversal opportunities in construction materials, home appliances, and property management [1] - The technology manufacturing sector is seeing a steady increase in return on equity (ROE) amid the transition of old and new driving forces [1] Group 3 - Investors may consider the Zhongzheng A500 ETF (159338), which is compiled using an internationally recognized "industry balance" method [1] - According to the 2025 mid-year report, the total number of accounts for the Guotai Zhongzheng A500 ETF ranks first among similar products, being more than three times that of the second place [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina supply surplus logic and expectations remain unchanged, mainly due to variables in Guinean bauxite. For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic supply is relatively certain with limited growth; Southeast Asian new - capacity and European复产 expectations may fall short due to policy and power - cost issues. Global supply pressure is not significant as the supply growth rate of scrap aluminum will decline. In terms of consumption, the domestic alloying process continues, with a higher proportion of molten aluminum and lower ingot production, keeping inventory at a low level and not pressuring absolute prices. For terminal consumption, there are good expectations at the start of the 15th Five - Year Plan, with domestic consumption structural reform continuing and overseas investment driving overseas infrastructure consumption. Due to the increasing proportion of scrap aluminum in the supply, the actual consumption is underestimated. Macroscopically, although the interest - rate cut rhythm is uncertain, the long - term interest - rate cut cycle remains, and the aluminum price is still undervalued [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina - **1.1 Domestic Ore Supply Falls Short of Expectations, and Prices Are Firm**: In 2025, from January to October, domestic ore production was 5051000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%, but monthly production declined year - on - year from August. Rainfall in northern regions affected mining, and policy tightening led to a decrease in illegal production. It is expected that domestic bauxite will hardly grow in 2026 [13]. - **1.2 Imported Ore Has Policy Risks, but the Current Expectation Is Still in Surplus**: From January to October 2025, China imported 170.96 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 30%, with 127.116 million tons from Guinea, a year - on - year increase of 38.4%. The annual import is expected to reach 200 - 210 million tons. Even without an increase in 2026, there will be no shortage. However, there are political uncertainties in Guinea. The price of imported bauxite has been falling, with a cost support of about 65 US dollars per ton [5][23]. - **1.3 Supply Will Continue to Be in Surplus Without Accidents**: In 2025, from January to October, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production was 74.458 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%. In 2026, alumina is expected to add 860000 tons of new capacity, and the production is expected to reach 97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%. The supply surplus will exceed 1 million tons. The actual situation may see new capacity and production cuts coexisting, but the surplus pattern is likely to continue. China is expected to remain a net exporter of alumina in 2026 [29][30]. 3.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - **2.1 Supply Growth Depends on Overseas, and the Supply Increment May Be Lower Than Expected**: In 2025, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was expected to be 30.235 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. In 2026, it is expected to be 31.825 million tons, an increase of 1.59 million tons. However, due to power - supply and cost issues, the actual output may be lower. Without considering Mozambique's production cut, the overseas output increment in 2026 is expected to be 1.2 million tons; with the cut, it may be reduced to 800000 - 900000 tons. New capacity is mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia, with a planned total of 1.75 million tons in 2026, but there are risks of delayed production [42]. - **2.2 Domestic Supply Has Small Growth, and There Is No Supply Pressure**: From January to October 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 36.506 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 675000 tons. The annual production in 2025 is expected to be 43.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. In 2026, the net new capacity is 620000 tons, and the new capacity is expected to contribute about 450000 tons to the production, with an annual output of 44.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 520000 tons and a growth rate of 1.2%. The import of Russian and Indonesian aluminum ingots is increasing, and the import in 2026 is expected to reach 2.7 million tons, an increase of about 250000 tons [50][53]. - **2.3 Scrap Aluminum Increases the Supply of Aluminum Elements, Leading to an Underestimation of Actual Consumption**: From January to October 2025, China's net import of aluminum scrap was 1.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.5%, and the net import of aluminum alloy was 612000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.9%. The domestic scrap aluminum production was 6.925 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.3%. It is estimated that the supply of scrap aluminum elements in 2025 will be 9.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.6%, accounting for 17.5% of the total aluminum element supply. The increase in the proportion of scrap aluminum in the supply has led to a long - term low growth rate of apparent primary aluminum consumption [59]. - **2.4 Two Perspectives on Aluminum Price Valuation**: From the perspective of electrolytic aluminum production cost, the weighted profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry is at a 15 - year high, indicating that the aluminum price is overvalued. However, from the perspective of the copper - to - aluminum ratio, which is currently above 4 and at a historical high, the aluminum price is undervalued. Historically, a high copper - to - aluminum ratio is often due to macro - factors, and the current high ratio is due to the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and the end of balance - sheet reduction. Therefore, the aluminum price is expected to rise with copper [65]. - **2.5 Aluminum Ingot Inventory Performance Is Disappointing**: During the traditional peak consumption season in 2025, the electrolytic aluminum social inventory did not decline as expected. The reasons include the progress of the aluminum - water ratio, the seasonal casting demand of northwest electrolytic aluminum plants, and the flattening of seasonal peaks and troughs due to the decline in real - estate and traditional infrastructure consumption. The current social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is about 600000 tons, and the aluminum rod social inventory is about 110000 tons, with relatively low absolute values and little negative impact on prices [67]. 3.3 Downstream Consumption - **3.1 The Continuous Expansion of Intermediate Processing Enterprises Does Not Mean High Negative - Feedback Pressure**: As of November 20, 2025, China's aluminum rod production was about 15.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, but the operating rate was less than 60% and at a low level. From January to October, the production of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils was 2.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20000 tons, and the operating rate was about 70%, at a three - year low. The expansion of intermediate processing capacity and the continuation of integrated electrolytic aluminum production have led to the shutdown of some small and old factories. The increase in intermediate processing products is in line with actual consumption growth [75]. - **3.2 Aluminum Product Exports Compensate for Aluminum Material Exports, and Next Year's Export Expectations Are Good**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative net export of aluminum materials was 4.272 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12%, while the cumulative export of aluminum products was 2.66 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. The combined export of aluminum materials and products decreased by only 3.1%, and the decline is narrowing. In 2026, without additional export - policy disturbances, aluminum material exports are expected to turn positive year - on - year, and the combined export of aluminum materials and products is expected to contribute an increment of 630000 tons, with an estimated net increment of 450000 tons considering alloying and scrap aluminum [82]. - **3.3 With the Halving of Domestic Vehicle Purchase Tax, the Increment of the Automobile Industry Depends on Exports**: From January to October 2025, China's cumulative automobile production was 27.692 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%, with new - energy vehicle production increasing by 33.1% year - on - year and traditional vehicle production decreasing by 0.1% year - on - year. The annual production is expected to be 33.5 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. The export of automobiles has made a significant contribution to production. In 2026, although the halving of the vehicle purchase tax may put pressure on production, with the current high export growth rate, the automobile production is expected to reach 37.2 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%, and the new - energy vehicle production is expected to grow by 20%, driving an increase in aluminum consumption of about 1 million tons, with an estimated increment in primary aluminum element supply of about 850000 tons [91]. - **3.4 The Weakening of Photovoltaic Is Compensated by Energy Storage and Power Grid Investment**: From January to October 2025, China's component production was 477.6GW, a year - on - year increase of only 0.5%. The photovoltaic installation from January to September was 240.4GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.4%, but the full - year installation is expected to be 280 - 290GW, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3 - 5%. In 2026, the component production is expected to be about 575GW, similar to 2025, and the installation is expected to be about 250GW, a year - on - year decrease of about 10%, dragging down aluminum consumption by about 600000 tons. In 2026, the power grid is expected to have an average annual compound growth rate of 8%, and power grid investment is expected to drive an increase in aluminum consumption of 370000 tons. The energy - storage shipment is expected to reach about 850GW, a year - on - year increase of about 50%, driving an increase in aluminum consumption of 200000 tons [98][105]. - **3.5 Terminal Consumption Structural Reform**: Real estate remains a drag on consumption, but its impact is weakening. In 2026, it is expected to drag down aluminum consumption by 5%, equivalent to 550000 tons of primary aluminum elements. The decline in real - estate consumption and the slowdown in traditional infrastructure growth do not affect overall consumption resilience. In 2026, exports are expected to maintain high - speed growth in commodity consumption, driven by China's investment in third - world countries [109]. 3.4 Summary - Alumina supply surplus is expected to continue, mainly due to variables in Guinean bauxite. For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic supply is relatively certain with limited growth, and overseas supply may fall short of expectations. The global supply pressure is not significant. The domestic alloying process continues, keeping inventory at a low level. Terminal consumption has good prospects at the start of the 15th Five - Year Plan, with domestic consumption structural reform and overseas investment driving consumption. The increasing proportion of scrap aluminum in the supply has led to an underestimation of actual consumption. Macroscopically, the aluminum price is still undervalued [114].