Core Viewpoint - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with strong performance in consumption, exports, and industrial production, leading several international investment banks to raise their economic growth forecasts for China in 2025 [1] Group 1: Economic Growth and Forecasts - UBS raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast for China from 4% to 4.7%, citing a robust second-quarter GDP growth of 5.2% supported by "trade-in" subsidies and stable export growth [1] - Morgan Stanley increased its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 4.5% to 4.8%, highlighting export resilience and proactive fiscal measures as key growth drivers [1] - Nomura maintained its GDP growth predictions for the second half of this year and 2026 but slightly adjusted its 2025 forecast upward due to better-than-expected second-quarter GDP growth [4] Group 2: Export Performance and Policy Support - The report indicated that exports outperformed expectations due to factors like "export grabbing" towards the U.S., ASEAN transshipment, and the depreciation of the yuan against non-dollar currencies [2] - Barclays Bank anticipates increased government efforts to boost consumption in the second half, including expanding the "trade-in" policy to more categories and potentially extending subsidies to additional service sectors [4] - UBS expects additional stimulus measures to be introduced by the government in late Q3 or Q4, including an increase in the fiscal deficit ratio by over 0.5 percentage points and interest rate cuts of 20-30 basis points [4] Group 3: Economic Challenges Ahead - Morgan Stanley noted that economic growth is expected to slow further in the second half, with weakening exports becoming a major drag on growth due to the fading "export grabbing" effect and renewed U.S. tariff policies [5] - The marginal effectiveness of fiscal stimulus is expected to diminish, and the impact of the "trade-in" policy on consumption will gradually decline [5] - A stimulus package of approximately 0.5 to 1 trillion yuan may be introduced, with timing potentially in September or October, allowing policymakers to assess economic trends more accurately [5]

Group 1: Trade and Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, China's goods trade exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, with total exports reaching 13 trillion yuan and imports at 8.79 trillion yuan, a decline of 2.7% [1] - The trade scale showed stable growth, with a diverse trading network and a shift towards higher-quality exports, particularly in electromechanical products, which accounted for 60% of total exports [1][2] - Domestic demand growth has been slow, and while exports have outperformed imports, this trend may reverse in the second half of the year due to potential impacts from U.S. trade agreements with Southeast Asian countries [2] Group 2: Financial Data and Monetary Policy - The social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, with a notable rise in RMB loans and deposits [3] - The People's Bank of China has emphasized a supportive monetary policy, although the implementation of total monetary policy has been slow, focusing more on structural tools [4] - Market expectations for further interest rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions are low as the financial landscape stabilizes [4] Group 3: Robotics Industry Developments - Shanghai Zhiyuan and Hangzhou Yushu Technology won a significant contract worth 1.24 billion yuan for humanoid robot manufacturing, marking a milestone in the commercialization of humanoid robots in China [7] - The humanoid robot market is projected to reach nearly 38 billion yuan by 2030, with sales expected to grow significantly [7][8] - The large-scale production of humanoid robots is anticipated to reduce unit costs and enhance their capabilities through real-world data feedback [8] Group 4: E-commerce and Delivery Market Competition - A renewed competition in the food delivery market has led to significant promotional activities, with Meituan and JD.com launching aggressive discount campaigns [9] - The market for instant retail is projected to grow substantially, but current investments may be seen as overly aggressive if market expectations are not met [9][10] - The ongoing competition among major internet companies is more about defending existing market shares rather than expanding into new markets [10] Group 5: Luxury Goods Market Trends - Singapore has retained its position as the most expensive city for luxury goods consumption for the third consecutive year, with London and Monaco following [11] - The global luxury market is facing challenges due to economic uncertainties, with a notable decline in high-end consumer confidence [12][13] - Changes in consumer behavior and the impact of tax policies have diminished the appeal of traditional luxury markets like Hong Kong and Shanghai [12][13] Group 6: Fund Market Dynamics - The year has seen the failure of four public fund issuances, with a notable number being bond funds, reflecting challenges faced by smaller fund management companies [14][15] - The bond market has shifted from a booming phase to a more differentiated structure, increasing competition among fund managers [15]

Core Viewpoint - June export data shows strong resilience with a year-on-year growth of 5.8%, exceeding expectations and remaining consistent with the cumulative growth of 6.0% over the previous five months, indicating no signs of slowdown as of June [1][5][6] Group 1: Export Performance - The strong performance in June is likely attributed to the "tariff easing effect," where the US has removed 91% of additional tariffs on Chinese goods and suspended 24% of tariffs for 90 days as of May 14, 2025 [1][5][6] - The US manufacturing PMI for imports showed a recovery from a low of 39.9 in May to 47.4 in June, aligning with improved export growth in China and South Korea [6][7] - Exports to the EU acted as a stabilizer, while ASEAN and Africa served as accelerators, with exports to the US declining at a slower rate in June compared to April and May [2][7] Group 2: Regional Export Trends - In April, exports to the US saw a significant drop of -21%, but exports to Europe were slightly better than the overall average, while exports to ASEAN, India, Africa, and Latin America maintained high growth rates of around 20% [2][7] - By June, exports to the US decreased by -16.1%, while exports to the EU grew by 7.6%, and exports to ASEAN and Africa continued to show strong growth [8] Group 3: Product Categories - High-end manufacturing sectors such as automobiles, ships, and integrated circuits are leading China's export growth, with automotive and ship exports growing at 23.1% and 23.6% respectively [3][8] - Labor-intensive products continue to show low growth, with textiles, bags, and clothing combined showing a -1.0% year-on-year growth, while toys saw a temporary spike of 8.1% due to tariff easing [3][8] - Electronic products displayed a mixed trend, with integrated circuits growing at 24.2%, while mobile phones and data processing equipment continued to decline [3][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The mid-term report suggests potential export slowdown due to expected economic deceleration in Europe and the US, as well as stricter origin rules in Southeast Asia [4][10] - Projections for the third quarter indicate a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.98%, while the fourth quarter may see a decline to around 2.96%, leading to an overall growth of about 4.43% for the second half of the year [4][11] - Recent credit and social financing data for June also showed positive trends, with a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion yuan, indicating supportive conditions for market risk appetite [4][11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on China's export resilience, highlighting strong growth in exports, particularly to emerging markets [2][3]. Core Insights - China's exports have demonstrated surprising strength, achieving double-digit growth since Q4 2023, driven by factors such as front-loading of export orders and trade re-routing [2][3][4]. - The report emphasizes the shift of China's export flows from developed markets to emerging markets, particularly ASEAN, which has become a key trading partner [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Export Growth Dynamics - Real exports from China have shown double-digit year-over-year growth since Q4 2023, with significant contributions from emerging markets [2][3]. - Front-loading of export orders has played a crucial role in maintaining high export levels, particularly in anticipation of US tariffs [5][6]. Trade Patterns and Destinations - Exports to ASEAN accounted for 16% of China's total exports in 2024, surpassing exports to the US, indicating a strategic shift in trade routes [2][3][4]. - The report notes that strong trade growth with major emerging economies has been a significant contributor to China's export strength over the past decade [2][3]. Sectoral Analysis - Exports of vehicles and electrical machinery to emerging markets have risen sharply, driven by supply chain diversification and increasing local demand for electric vehicles [2][3][4]. - The report highlights a transition in China's export product mix from traditional goods to new sectors such as electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar cells [26][35]. Impact of US Tariff Policies - US tariff policies have induced front-loading and trade re-routing, which have helped stabilize China's overall export growth despite a decline in US-bound exports [5][6][18]. - The report estimates that cumulative front-loading of US-bound exports during Q4 2024 to Q1 2025 was around 30% of trend-implied monthly export values [5][6]. ASEAN's Role in Trade - The ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement has significantly reduced tariffs, contributing to the rise in ASEAN-bound exports from China [37]. - Trade data discrepancies suggest potential transshipment of goods through ASEAN to avoid US tariffs, indicating a complex trade dynamic [39][41].

从出口国别看，对美出口增速降幅连续扩大，对东盟、欧盟出口增速较快。分地区看，5月中国对美国 出口增速大幅下滑至-34.5%，降幅较上月大幅扩大13.5个百分点，美国在中国出口比重下滑至9.1%。 （原标题：袁海霞 ：出口韧性犹存 关税博弈下需多策并举稳外贸） 2025年5月中国进出口总金额5289.8亿美元，同比增长1.3%。其中，出口金额3161亿美元，同比增长 4.8%；进口金额2128.8亿美元，同比-3.4%；贸易顺差为1032.2亿美元，同比增长26.86%。1—5月，中 国进出口总额累计同比增长1.3%，其中，出口累计同比增长6%，进口累计同比下降4.9%。 中诚信国际研究院院长袁海霞表示，5月"抢出口"退坡，出口增速有所放缓但仍强于季节性，出口韧性 仍存。 5月中国出口金额3161亿元，同比增长4.8%，分别较上月和去年同期下降3.3和2.6个百分点。原因有 二：一是"抢转口"减弱，5月对东盟出口增速较上月下降近6个百分点，中美关税大幅下降下"抢转口"必 要性减弱；二是中美贸易谈判取得超预期进展，一定程度上稳定了市场预期，"抢出口"必要性下降。从 高频数据看，截至5月25日当周，中国监测港口集装 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report utilizes a volume-price analysis framework to assess China's exports to the U.S. during the first round of trade friction and the impact of fentanyl tariffs, aiming to identify products with greater export resilience [3] - From a long-term perspective, technological barriers determine resilience, with high value-added products showing significant advantages. Industries with technological barriers and product differentiation exhibit stronger pricing power during long-term tariff impacts, creating a virtuous cycle of "volume and price increase + increased dependency." Recommended sectors include pharmaceuticals, electrical machinery and equipment, organic compounds, and aluminum products [3] - In the short term, the decline in exports is widespread, with more resilience reflected through re-export trade. Products with high import dependency from China show weak overseas substitution. The fentanyl tariff has caused a sharp decline in China's short-term exports to the U.S., with no significant differences among products of different natures. Products demonstrating export resilience through re-export trade include toys, furniture, footwear, glass products, miscellaneous non-ferrous metal products, and electrical machinery and equipment. Additionally, products with high import dependency from the U.S. show low overseas substitution rates, making it difficult for other countries to fill the demand gap. Attention should be paid to the replenishment demand from U.S. importers in high import dependency products, which may lead to export rebounds [3] Industry Analysis - Industries meeting all three criteria of long-term perspective, re-export trade, and high import dependency include electrical machinery and equipment. Industries meeting two criteria include organic compounds, miscellaneous products, and footwear. Industries meeting one criterion include pharmaceuticals, aluminum and its products, toys, furniture, glass products, miscellaneous non-ferrous metal products, knitted garments, and wooden products [3]

Export Performance - In May, China's export growth rate was 4.8%, slightly below the expected 6.24% and the seasonal average of 5.66%[8] - The two-year compound growth rate for exports in May was 6.1%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points from April's 4.66%[8] - Exports to the US saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year growth rate of -34.52%, negatively impacting overall export growth[21] Trade Partnerships - Exports to ASEAN countries contributed positively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, while exports to the EU also showed improvement, contributing 1.76%[9] - The Belt and Road Initiative countries saw a year-on-year export growth of 12.26%, contributing 5.97% to overall exports[11] - Non-US trade partnerships have strengthened, with exports to non-US countries becoming a crucial support for maintaining export resilience[9] Key Export Products - High-tech products and machinery exports remained strong, with machinery exports growing by 7.17% year-on-year[12] - Integrated circuit exports continued to show high growth, while exports of mobile phones and LCD panels experienced a slowdown[12] - Transportation equipment exports were stable, with automotive exports growing by 13.73% and auto parts by 43.65%[16] Import Trends - In May, imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly below the market expectation of a 0.31% increase[18] - Imports from the US, Japan, and ASEAN countries showed negative contributions, with the US contributing -1.09% to the overall import growth[20] Market Outlook - The report maintains a cautious but optimistic outlook for exports, suggesting that the worst impacts of US tariffs may have passed, with potential for recovery in US-China trade negotiations before the tariff exemption period ends on July 8[22][24] - The market sentiment remains cautious due to uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies, but there is potential for structural valuation recovery if negotiations progress positively[26]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The shipping sector is experiencing opportunities due to China's resilient export performance, which grew by 6.4% year-on-year in the first four months, significantly higher than last year's 1.4% [1][2][5] - The market structure is currently in a consolidation phase, with upward potential depending on investor expectations regarding economic recovery and downward pressure supported by liquidity [1][6] Key Points on Export Resilience - China's export resilience in 2025 is expected to exceed market expectations, with April exports reaching $315.69 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.1% [2] - The main drivers of this resilience include aggressive export behavior due to trade policy uncertainties and diversification of trade partners [3][4] Shipping Sector Performance - The shipping sector has recently rebounded, with the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) surging by 30.7% week-on-week, marking the second-largest weekly increase in history [1][8] - Following a temporary agreement between the U.S. and China, demand for trans-Pacific routes has increased, with spot freight rates for the West and East coasts of the U.S. reaching $6,000 and $7,000, respectively [8][9] Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - The shipping market is characterized by structural tightness due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain reconfigurations, which are expected to create investment opportunities [3][10] - Companies such as China Merchants Industry Holdings and Hong Kong's SITC International Holdings are highlighted as attractive investment targets due to their strong dividends and cash flow [12] Future Outlook - The global container shipping growth rate is projected to be around 6% this year, down from 10.3% last year, indicating a potential slowdown in capacity growth [9][10] - The restructuring of global trade supply chains is expected to significantly impact shipping routes and demand, particularly benefiting companies with high exposure to emerging markets [11][14] Additional Insights - The oil tanker and bulk carrier markets are currently weak, with the T3C route price around $40,000, but long-term oil supply remains secure [13] - The overall supply-demand situation in the shipping market remains tight despite supply growth outpacing demand growth, driven by extended shipping routes and increased transportation needs [11]

宏观 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 12 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 中美谈判启动带动市场乐观预期 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（5 月第 2 周） [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 经济预测（一致预期） 单位（%） 2409E 24E GDP（Q3E） CPI PPI 工业增加值增速 固定投资增速 社消增速 出口增速 进口增速 M2 增速 社融增速 数据来源：万得资讯 1) 权益：上周市场放量上涨。关税动态方面，五一假期期间， 中美谈判现乐观预期，带动市场放量上涨。5 月 10 日，中美 经贸高层会谈开始在瑞士日内瓦开始举行，预计后续陆续取得 进展，但谈判进程预计较为缓慢，二季度关税对外需影响仍然 ...

宏观动态报告 关税冲击下的出口韧性 4 月进出口数据解读 2025年5月9日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 网:zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 目雷 ☎：010-8092-7780 网: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 风险提示:外需走弱的风险;国内经济下行的风险;贸易摩擦加剧的风险。 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 集成电路和汽车出口修复上行:(1)4月份机电、高技术和劳动密集型产品 ● 出口增速均有不同程度回落,其中机电产品出口增速 10.1%(前值 13.4%), 高新技术产品出口增速 6.5%(前值 7.3%)，劳动密集型产品出口增速转负至 -1.7%（前值 9.1%）；（2）集成电路 20.2%（前值 7.9%）和汽车包括底盘 4.4%(前值 1.7%)出口增速均有不同程度上行;通用机械设备 17%(前值 ...