Core Insights - The U.S. stock market has shown an upward trend, driven by a slight easing in inflation concerns and strong earnings from major companies [3][5][11] Market Drivers - Inflation has slightly slowed, with the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year at 3.0%, below the expected 3.1%, raising hopes that the Federal Reserve may pause its rate hikes [3][11] - Strong earnings from several large-cap stocks have further supported market optimism [3] - WTI crude oil prices remain stable above $61 per barrel, maintaining a positive sentiment in the energy sector without reigniting inflation fears [3][11] Volatility and Yield - The VIX index has decreased by 5.38%, indicating a reduction in risk aversion among investors [4][15] - The 10-year Treasury yield is stable at 4.043%, reflecting a balance between stock and bond liquidity [6] Top Stock Movers - Ford has seen a significant increase of 11.92% due to strong electric vehicle sales and optimistic guidance [8] - Western Union's stock rose by 10.07% driven by robust remittance volumes [9] - Coinbase experienced a 9.57% increase attributed to rising cryptocurrency inflows [10] Commodity Insights - WTI crude oil is priced at $61.50 per barrel, stabilizing after a recent surge driven by sanctions [13] - Gold is trading at $4,137.80 per ounce, supported by weak inflation data and stable dollar conditions [13] Other Key Areas - The Federal Reserve is expected to clarify its interest rate path following recent CPI data, with several officials scheduled to speak this week [16] - Earnings reports from major tech companies may test market sentiment resilience [16] - Month-end liquidity flows could cause short-term distortions in the market [16]

Group 1: Currency and Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs has raised its future yen exchange rate forecast to 150, with long-term interest rate paths expected to support a stronger yen [1] - Dutch Bank noted that escalating trade disputes have heightened risk aversion, leading to increased demand for the yen and Swiss franc [1] - French Agricultural Credit Bank stated that despite negative UK data, the Bank of England's policy path remains unchanged, limiting short-term declines in the pound [1] Group 2: Market Analysis and Predictions - Analysts from Deutsche Bank indicated that the ideal scenario for French government bonds in the next 48 hours would involve budget cuts and pension reform rollbacks, warning of potential political turmoil if the Prime Minister fails to address fiscal challenges [2] - Goldman Sachs significantly raised its target exchange rates for the yen over the next 3, 6, and 12 months, citing potential fiscal risks from stimulus policies [2] - Pantheon Macroeconomics suggested that the Bank of England may lower interest rates in the coming months due to rising unemployment and slowing wage growth [3] Group 3: Employment and Inflation Trends - The ICAEW reported that the UK job market is under pressure from high hiring costs and economic weakness, with a decrease in job vacancies signaling negative trends [3] - Jefferies economists believe that weak employment data supports a dovish stance from the Bank of England, with the market underestimating the likelihood of further rate cuts this year [4] - InvestingLive highlighted that Germany's core inflation rate rose to 2.8% in September, indicating persistent price pressures in the Eurozone's largest economy [4]

Group 1 - The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve's statements and the September meeting minutes, with significant implications for commodities and RMB assets due to China's financial data and central bank liquidity operations [1][2] - Key upcoming events include speeches from Federal Reserve officials and the release of important economic data, which are expected to drive short-term trading strategies [1][2] - The trading environment is characterized by high volatility and risk, necessitating careful position management and confirmation of market signals before making trading decisions [3][4] Group 2 - Gold prices are expected to be influenced by the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and officials' comments, particularly regarding interest rate paths, which will affect market risk appetite and the USD [1][2] - The performance of the US dollar is primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's statements, while Canadian employment data will directly impact the Canadian dollar [2] - Oil demand expectations are significantly influenced by China's financial data, and the Baker Hughes rig count provides insights into supply-side dynamics [2][3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs issues a rare acceleration warning, indicating that the U.S. economy is likely to re-accelerate next year rather than experience a soft landing, which could complicate monetary policy by 2026 [2] - The report highlights three key factors contributing to the upward risk for GDP: resilient labor market, fiscal stimulus, and loose financial conditions, with the GDP growth forecast for Q3 raised to an annualized rate of 2.6% [2] - If these favorable conditions materialize, GDP growth could exceed 3.5% in the first half of next year, significantly above the market consensus of 1.8% [2] Group 2 - Two scenarios are presented for trading strategies: Scenario A involves a dovish new chair with slow action on tightening, suggesting long positions in inflation-linked assets and short positions in the dollar [3] - Scenario B anticipates independent rate hikes starting in Q2 2026, recommending steepening the yield curve and investing in financial stocks while shorting long-duration bonds [3] - The report warns that volatility is likely underestimated, with the current MOVE index at 90, well below the historical average of 120, indicating potential for a sell-off in the bond market if data continues to exceed expectations [3] Group 3 - Investors are advised to prepare for tools that benefit from a steepening yield curve and to closely monitor the political dynamics between the White House and the Federal Reserve, as the 2026 interest rate path may hinge on personnel decisions rather than inflation data [4]

Market Performance - US stock market rebounded on September 26, with major indices closing higher: Dow Jones up 0.65% at 46,247.29 points, S&P 500 up 0.59% at 6,643.7 points, and Nasdaq up 0.44% at 22,484.07 points [1][2] - Large tech stocks mostly increased, with the US Tech Giants Index rising 0.46% [2] - Notable individual stock performances include Tesla up over 4%, Microsoft up nearly 1%, and Amazon up 0.75%, while Apple and Meta saw declines of 0.55% and 0.69% respectively [2] Inflation Data - August PCE inflation data met expectations, with the PCE price index rising 0.3% month-on-month and the core PCE index rising 0.2%, indicating easing inflation pressures [4] - Year-on-year, the core PCE price index increased by 2.9%, aligning with market expectations [4] Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks showed mixed results, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 0.32% and Intel increasing over 4% [3] Commodity Prices - International precious metals futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.50% at $3,789.8 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.77% at $46.365 per ounce [4] - Crude oil prices increased, with WTI crude oil futures up 0.32% at $65.19 per barrel and Brent crude oil futures up 0.35% at $68.82 per barrel, marking weekly increases of 4.47% and 4.21% respectively [4] Trade Policy - The White House announced that new tariffs on pharmaceuticals will not apply to countries that have trade agreements with the US [6] - The US will continue to adhere to a 15% tariff cap for trade partners like the EU and Japan [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1] Summary by Sections Rate Cut Expectations - Most brokerages believe the rate cut was fully priced in and expect two more cuts within the year [2][3] - Analysts suggest that if the unemployment rate remains stable, continuous rate cuts may not materialize [3] Economic Outlook - Analysts from Citic Securities view the rate cut as a risk management measure, indicating a shift in focus from inflation to employment risks [4] - The dot plot suggests a total of three rate cuts this year, with a neutral long-term rate maintained at around 3% [4] Asset Market Reactions - The dollar is expected to remain weak, while gold's outlook shows divergence among analysts [6] - Citic Securities anticipates that the rate cut will lead to a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario for U.S. Treasuries and a positive response in U.S. equities [6] Impact on Chinese Markets - The rate cut is seen as beneficial for Chinese stocks, bonds, and the yuan, with expectations of increased domestic monetary policy space [8] - Analysts suggest that the global liquidity easing will provide additional capital for the Chinese stock market [8]

本文字数：2787，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 北京时间周四（18日）凌晨，美联储公布9月利率决议。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以11-1的方式决定下调利率区间25个基点至4.00%-4.25%， 暗示年内可能继续降息两次。这也是去年12月以来，FOMC重启宽松周期，周二刚刚进入美联储的新任理事米兰投出反对票，希望降息50个基点。 2025.09. 18 美联储主席鲍威尔亮相新闻发布会（来源：美联储官网直播画面） 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示："在某种程度上，你可以将此次降息视为一次风险管理性质的降息。"他进一步补充称，"短期内，通胀面临上 行风险，就业面临下行风险，这对货币政策制定者而言是一个具有挑战性的局面。" 最新公布的经济预期概要（SEP）中，美联储上调了今年经济增速预期0.2个百分点至1.6%，2026年上修0.2个百分点至1.8%，2027年上修0.1个百分 点至1.9%。 通胀压力从明年开始有所上升。美联储预计2025年核心PCE增速3.1%，与6月预测持平，2026年上修0.2个百分点至2.6%，2027年维持在2.1%。整 体PCE调整类似，今年维持在3.0%，2 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, indicating the possibility of two more rate cuts within the year [1][2] - Economic growth has slowed in the first half of the year, with job growth weakening and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [2][8] - Powell described the rate cut as a risk management measure, highlighting upward inflation risks and downward employment risks [5][12] Group 2 - The Fed has revised its economic growth forecast for this year upward by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%, with similar upward adjustments for 2026 and 2027 [5][6] - Inflation pressures are expected to rise starting next year, with core PCE inflation projected at 3.1% for 2025 and 2.6% for 2026 [5][6] - The unemployment rate is projected to be 4.5% in 2025, with slight downward adjustments for 2026 and 2027 [7][8] Group 3 - The updated dot plot shows significant internal divisions within the Fed regarding future rate cuts, with some members advocating for aggressive cuts while others prefer to maintain current rates [10][13] - Powell emphasized that the Fed is committed to maintaining its independence from political influence, despite external pressures for more aggressive actions [12][14] - The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 28-29, where further discussions on monetary policy will take place [14]

Core Viewpoint - The market's high expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are supporting the continued rise in gold prices, which recently reached a new historical high [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have been influenced by the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, with recent comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicating risks in the job market and the possibility of rate cuts [2]. - Recent U.S. economic data, including poor non-farm payroll figures and a four-year high in initial jobless claims, have reinforced the market's expectations for a rate cut [2]. - The U.S. dollar is under pressure, nearing a three-year low, while the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield has hit a five-month low, both of which support gold prices [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices reached a high of $3703 but faced resistance and retreated to around $3690, indicating a potential short-term adjustment despite the overall upward trend [1][4]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3662, $3635, and $3600, while resistance levels are at $3674 and $3700 [4]. - Technical indicators suggest that after a continuous rise, there may be a need for adjustment, as evidenced by the MACD entering the overbought zone and the KDJ and RSI indicators forming bearish signals [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut, which is expected to provide short-term support for gold prices [2][4]. - Investors are advised to focus on the future interest rate path of the Federal Reserve, as the number of potential future rate cuts may have a more significant impact on gold prices than the immediate cut [2].

Group 1 - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that removing Hamas leadership in Qatar would eliminate a major obstacle to achieving a ceasefire in Gaza [1] - The international community is closely monitoring the situation after a Russian drone unexpectedly entered Polish airspace, a NATO member [1] - The upcoming "central bank super week" will see interest rate decisions from G7 countries, excluding the US Federal Reserve, as well as from Brazil, South Africa, and Norway [1] Group 2 - Gold prices have shown strong bullish momentum, with a rise of over $360 in just four trading weeks, indicating robust demand [2] - The international silver market also saw an upward trend, reaching an annual high of $42.5 [2] - Domestic gold futures in China hit a historical high above 840, while silver futures continue to reach new highs, hovering around the 10,000 mark [2] Group 3 - Gold is currently experiencing high-level fluctuations, with a focus on the direction following a correction, particularly in relation to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [3] - The price range for gold is currently between $3,612 and $3,674, with expectations that $3,674 is not a definitive peak but a temporary high [3] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3,660-$3,657, with a potential breakout above these levels leading to new highs [5] Group 4 - The market is expected to experience fluctuations, with key resistance levels at $3,657-$3,660 and support at $3,625 and $3,612 [7] - Trading strategies suggest focusing on selling at resistance levels and buying at support levels, with a cautious approach to avoid chasing the market [7]