Group 1 - Global financial markets are in a cautious state, with investors awaiting key insights on interest rate paths from the upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank conference [1][2] - The Nasdaq 100 index has experienced a rebound due to bargain buying, which has also led to a mild increase in Asian tech stocks [1] - Despite the cautious sentiment, traders in the interest rate swap market are betting on a high likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, highlighting a tension between market expectations and the central bank's decisions on inflation [2] Group 2 - Technology stocks, which have been the main drivers of the recent market rally, are currently struggling, with the Nasdaq 100 index declining for two consecutive trading days [3] - A measure of the so-called "seven giants" in tech has fallen for four consecutive days, marking the longest losing streak since mid-April [3] - Concerns about a potential bubble in U.S. stocks have been raised, with warnings that adjustments may not be imminent despite the current market conditions [3]

一样的行情，不一样的指导，不一样的人生。新手的特点就是不懂技术，盲目进场。他们每次交易只考虑一个问题：认为只要预判了市场涨跌就可以去做这 笔交易。这种重方向、轻位置的做法使得交易者一败涂地。其实，顺势而为的"势"跟"方向"是有很大差别的，因为市场的运动方向呈现震荡的形态运行，而 市场的趋势往往是全局性的。在我这里，我能做的是帮你合理的把控仓位，利用支撑和阻力位下单，让每一单有理可依，有迹可循。买卖点位不应该是随意 进场，请对自己的资金负责。如果你对行情真的无法把握，可以前来找到我，多一个分析师对你来说没有任何损失，永远记住一句话，专业的人做专业的 事，一切实战只为盈利，合作只为双赢。 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金消息面解析：周三（8月20日）美联储将发布上一次货币政策会议纪要；周五，美联储主席鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔经济研讨会上发表主旨演讲。市场期 待从中获取明确的货币政策信号，尤其是在8月初非农就业数据意外疲软及上周生产者价格指数（PPI）显示通胀回升后，投资者急需厘清美联储的利率路 径。专家分析指出，会议纪要或暴露美联储内部政策分歧，而鲍威尔的讲话可能为降息预期提供关键线索，进而影响黄金价格走势。美联储会议纪 ...

Group 1 - The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is expected to provide important signals regarding the future interest rate path from the Federal Reserve [1][3] - Market expectations for a rate cut have intensified, with over 92% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the September meeting according to federal funds futures pricing [1][3] - The stock market, particularly interest rate-sensitive sectors, has seen a significant rise due to these optimistic expectations [3] Group 2 - There is a risk of significant market volatility if Fed Chair Powell's speech diverges from market expectations regarding rate cuts [3][4] - Morgan Stanley suggests that the Jackson Hole meeting may serve as a platform for the Fed to counter excessive easing expectations, potentially leading to a more hawkish stance from Powell [3][4] - The Fed aims to maintain flexibility in its policy decisions, especially before the release of key employment and inflation data [4]

美国6月PCE物价指数同比增长2.6%，增幅创2024年12月以来最大，且高于预期值2.5%和前值2.3%；美 国6月核心PCE物价指数同比增长2.8%，增幅创2025年2月以来最大，亦高于预期值和前值（两者均为 2.7%）。美国6月实际个人消费支出(PCE)环比增长0.1%，增幅符合预期。数据显示，美国通胀增速在 加快，而消费者支出几无增长，这一矛盾局面凸显出政策制定者在利率路径问题上的分歧。 ...

Group 1 - The international gold price experienced fluctuations, stabilizing around the support level of $3300 after a four-day decline, indicating a potential reversal with a small bullish candlestick pattern [1] - Market focus is on the outcomes of the US-China trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with expectations of relative stability until these results are announced [1] - Recent tariff agreements between the US, Japan, and the EU have lowered overall tariff levels compared to previous threats, reducing short-term market risk aversion and potentially stabilizing gold prices [1] Group 2 - In the short term, gold prices are expected to fluctuate within the $3305-$3335 range, with potential downward support at $3280 and $3250, or upward resistance at $3350-$3355 [2] - The outcome of the battle for the $3350 level will be crucial for determining the future price trajectory of gold [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has not made any prior commitments regarding a specific interest rate path [1] Group 1 - The ECB emphasizes its data-dependent approach to monetary policy decisions [1] - The central bank is focused on achieving its inflation target and will adjust rates as necessary based on economic conditions [1] - There is an acknowledgment of the uncertainty in the economic outlook, which may influence future rate decisions [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The market is focused on the upcoming US PPI data, which will directly impact the future movement of gold prices [1] - Gold prices found support near the 100-period SMA around $3320, halting a decline from a three-week high [1] - If gold can stabilize above the resistance zone of $3342-$3343, it may test the $3365-$3366 area, with a further target of $3400 [1] - Current momentum indicators like MACD and RSI have not formed clear bullish signals, indicating limited upward momentum [1] - A drop below the $3320 support could lead to a decline towards the $3300 level, with further support at $3283-$3282 and a potential revisit to the July low of $3247 [1] - Gold's movement is influenced by both fundamental factors, such as Trump's tariff policies raising inflation expectations, and technical factors, with the Fed's stance on maintaining high rates limiting price rebounds [1] Group 2: Oil Market Insights - The recent rebound in oil prices was supported by a surprising decrease in US API crude oil inventories, which fell by 3.6 million barrels, contrary to market expectations of a 1.5 million barrel increase [5] - This indicates strong demand for US crude oil, contributing to market confidence [5] - The technical outlook for US crude shows a double bottom structure around $66, with prices stabilizing above the 20-day moving average and breaking a short-term downtrend [5] - Despite signs of a rebound, uncertainties surrounding tariffs may limit the extent of the price increase [7] - Close attention is needed on EIA official inventory data and changes in US and European consumption data to assess the sustainability of the rebound [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2) Core Viewpoints - The market is concerned about the potential impact of Trump's tariff policy on inflation. Although the current US inflation level remains low due to relatively low energy prices and weak domestic consumer confidence, the situation will become more variable if the tariff factor continues to affect the market in the future. Additionally, while there are differences among Fed officials regarding the future interest rate path, a rate cut is still a high-probability event. Therefore, it is recommended to mainly buy gold on dips for hedging [8]. - The current silver price is strong, and the gold-silver ratio has been repaired. There is also a spill - over effect on the Comex silver price after Trump's claim to impose additional tariffs on copper. For now, it is also recommended to buy silver on dips for hedging [9]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Tariff Policy - Trump said that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 50 days, a 100% secondary tariff will be imposed on Russia, and secondary sanctions will also be imposed on countries that buy Russian oil. Brazil will announce a reciprocal countermeasure decree against US tariffs, and the EU is preparing to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion worth of US goods. After Trump's latest trade tax threat, the European Central Bank will discuss a more negative situation next week than expected in June [1] Futures Market - On July 14, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 777.62 yuan/gram and closed at 781.40 yuan/gram, a change of 1.01% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 778.04 yuan/gram, down 0.05% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,118.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,207.00 yuan/kg, a change of 1.85% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,093,005 lots, and the open interest was 448,095 lots. The night - session closed at 9,167 yuan/kg, down 0.11% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yields - On July 14, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.43%, a change of 0.08% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.53%, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract, the long position changed by - 3,450 lots and the short position changed by - 1,439 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 330,985 lots, a change of 9.26% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long position changed by 1,147 lots and the short position changed by - 4,863 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,568,465 lots, a change of 141.85% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 947.64 tons compared to the previous day, and the silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 14,966.24 tons compared to the previous day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage - On July 14, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was - 3.01 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was - 1,003.49 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 84.87, a change of - 1.31% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 88.96, a change of - 1.54% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On July 14, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 38,158 kg, a change of 24.01% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,017,134 kg, a change of 94.55% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 7,968 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 56,610 kg [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of England should disclose the interest rate path of policymakers to enhance transparency in monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The suggestion aims to provide clearer guidance to markets and the public regarding future interest rate decisions [1] - This approach could potentially improve the effectiveness of monetary policy by aligning expectations with actual policy actions [1] - The call for transparency reflects a broader trend among central banks to communicate more openly about their policy frameworks [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. ADP employment report for June unexpectedly showed a loss of 33,000 jobs, challenging the narrative of a robust labor market [1] - The government announced plans to cut nearly 290,000 federal positions this year, adding pressure to an already tight labor market [1] - Job search activity for positions such as policy analysts has surged tenfold year-over-year, indicating increased competition among job seekers [1] Group 2 - The shift of stable government employees to the private sector may dilute already slowing hiring demand, potentially leading to downward pressure on wages for knowledge-based positions [3] - If public sector wages, seen as a stabilizing factor, decline, it could negatively impact mortgage payments and durable goods orders, affecting consumer spending [3] - The bond market reacted with the ten-year yield dropping below 4.1%, indicating a flight to safety, while consumer staples and utilities showed slight gains amidst pressure on banks, construction, and small tech stocks [3] Group 3 - A true turning point in the labor market may require three signals: consecutive negative private sector job additions, a reduction in average hours worked, and initial jobless claims surpassing post-pandemic highs [3] - If these conditions are met, the anticipated "soft landing" for the economy could shift to a "hard reality" [3] - In the interim, a prudent strategy involves reducing concentrated bets, using high-dividend assets to hedge against volatility, and adjusting positions based on rolling data [3]