Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in commodity prices, economic indicators for July, and the implications of rising tariffs in the U.S. on international trade dynamics. Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - In July, commodity futures prices surged due to expectations of reduced competition, with polysilicon leading the price increase, followed by glass and coking coal [2] - However, in the last week of July, the trading activity cooled significantly due to policy guidance, resulting in sharp declines in previously rising commodities such as coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and glass, which fell by 21.2%, 13.7%, 12.2%, respectively [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators for July - The PMI for July decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3, indicating a decline in economic activity compared to June [4] - The estimated PPI growth rate for July is around -3.3%, while the CPI year-on-year is approximately -0.2% [5] - Exports are expected to maintain resilience, with a projected growth rate of around 4% for July [6] - Retail sales growth is anticipated to be around 4.6%, reflecting a slight decline in the "trade-in" program [7] - Industrial output is expected to show a year-on-year increase of about 5.8% [7] - Fixed asset investment growth is projected at 2.8%, with real estate sales showing weak sentiment [8] - Social financing is expected to rise to approximately 9.1% in July, supported by government bonds [9] Group 3: U.S. Tariff Increases - On July 31, the White House announced an executive order to reset "reciprocal tariff" rates for certain countries, effective August 7, with Canada’s tariffs effective August 1 [10] - The new tariff structure includes a minimum rate of 10% for allied countries, a 15% rate for countries with small trade surpluses with the U.S., and higher rates for major trading partners like Canada and Mexico, which face tariffs of 35% and 25%, respectively [10][12] - Compared to the existing rates in May, the upcoming reciprocal tariffs represent a significant increase, which may shift traders from exporting to inventory management [12] Group 4: Government Debt Issuance - In July, government bond issuance slightly decreased, with a total issuance of 2.4 trillion yuan and net financing of 1.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 632.2 billion yuan year-on-year [12] - As of the end of July 2025, the net financing scale of government bonds reached 9.0 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 65.3% [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - involution trading has ended, leading to a decline in alumina futures prices. The domestic alumina supply has turned into a slight surplus with the resumption of production and the release of new production capacity. After the end of the emotional trading, the futures price is expected to continue the oscillatory and weak trend [1][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices remained stable last week. Due to frequent rainfall in the north and the influence of the rainy season and typhoons in the south, the mining and shipping efficiency of domestic ores were affected. The shipment decline of Guinea in July will impact the supply in August, September, and October. Some mines are in the process of resuming production. The new - arrived ore during the period was 3.07 million tons, and the freight from Guinea to China decreased slightly [2][12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina rose last week. The market was in a wait - and - see mood, and downstream enterprises were resistant to high prices. The domestic alumina supply remained at a high level, with a production capacity of 113.02 million tons, a running capacity of 94.75 million tons (a decrease of 200,000 tons from last week), and an operating rate of 83.8% [3][13] - **Demand**: Domestically, the operating capacity of some electrolytic aluminum enterprises increased, with the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increasing by 15,000 tons week - on - week. Overseas demand remained unchanged [14] - **Inventory**: As of July 31, the national alumina inventory was 3.243 million tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from last week. The inventory structure changed due to factors such as railway freight reduction and increased shipments [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 6,615 tons, a decrease of 307 tons from last week [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - On July 30, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in East Australia at an FOB price of $373.7 per ton [16] - On July 30, 300 tons of spot alumina were traded in Shanxi at an ex - factory price of 3,400 yuan per ton [16] - On July 28, the winning bid price of a regular alumina tender by an aluminum plant in Xinjiang was between 3,520 - 3,580 yuan per ton, an increase of 90 - 150 yuan per ton from last week [16] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost End**: The data includes domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, etc., with data sources mainly from Shanghai Steel Union and the Orient Futures Derivatives Research Institute [17][20][21] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It shows domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, and the weekly supply - demand balance of alumina. The data sources are Shanghai Steel Union, Wind, and the Orient Futures Derivatives Research Institute [34][36][40] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It covers electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant inventory, domestic alumina yard/platform/in - transit inventory, etc. The data sources are mainly from Aladdin and the Orient Futures Derivatives Research Institute [43][46][48]

Group 1: Commodity Market Trends - In July, commodity futures prices surged significantly, with polysilicon leading the trend, rising by 15.5% in the second week[4] - By the last week of July, the "anti-involution" trading cooled down, leading to declines in previously surging commodities, with coking coal, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon dropping by 21.2%, 13.7%, and 12.2% respectively[4][5] - Glass prices increased by 26.2% in the third week but fell by 11.6% in the last week of July[5] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The PMI for July decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3%, indicating a decline in economic sentiment compared to June[6] - PPI is estimated to have a year-on-year growth rate of approximately -3.3%, slightly better than June's -3.6%[6] - Retail sales growth is projected to be around 4.6%, while industrial added value is expected to grow by 5.8% year-on-year[6][7] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Impacts - The upcoming "reciprocal tariffs" set to take effect in August will significantly increase compared to May's rates, impacting trade dynamics[10][11] - The highest tariff rate of 10% will apply to allies, while countries like Canada and Mexico will face tariffs of 35% and 25% respectively[9][11] - China's exports to the U.S. are expected to decline due to high tariffs, with overall export growth stabilizing at around 4.3%[6][10] Group 4: Government Debt and Financing - In July, government bond issuance slightly decreased to 2.4 trillion yuan from 2.8 trillion yuan, with net financing of 1.25 trillion yuan[12] - The cumulative net financing scale of government bonds reached 9.0 trillion yuan by the end of July, with an issuance progress of 65.3% for the year[12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the sentiment in the bond market improved marginally. Looking ahead to next week, the overall liquidity will be balanced, and the equity market lacks catalysts for speculation, creating a favorable environment for the bond market. However, after the policy of levying VAT on treasury bond interest was announced, the bond market is expected to rise first and then fall [14]. - In the short term, the policy may cause price differentiation between new and old bond issues. In the long term, it is negative for the bond market as it reduces the attractiveness of treasury bond coupons, diverts funds to riskier assets, and requires new bonds to offer higher coupon rates [2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Outlook 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From July 28 to August 3, treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. As of August 1, the settlement prices of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts were 102.352, 105.730, 108.450, and 119.090 yuan, up 0.026, 0.145, 0.255, and 0.970 yuan respectively from the previous weekend [13]. 3.1.2 Next Week's Outlook - The market is expected to rise first and then fall due to the policy of taxing treasury bond interest. It is recommended that trading positions gradually withdraw from long positions, consider short - hedging strategies for long - term bonds, and construct steepening curve strategies such as 10Y - 1Y if risk appetite is strong after key time points [2][16][19]. 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 92 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 6724.35 billion yuan and a net financing of 5532.57 billion yuan. The net financing of treasury bonds increased slightly, while that of local government bonds decreased, and the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased [17][19][20]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields declined. As of August 1, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.42%, 1.57%, 1.71%, and 1.95% respectively, down 1.29, 5.66, 3.17, and 3.70 basis points from the previous weekend [25]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rose. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 40590, 71737, 88205, and 156603 contracts respectively, with changes of - 6031, - 10064, - 14010, and + 366 contracts from the previous weekend. The open interests were 111227, 195029, 232880, and 160133 contracts respectively, with changes of - 7224, - 12580, - 6104, and + 3518 contracts from the previous weekend [34][37]. 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - The basis of futures generally fluctuated within a narrow range, and the IRR of the CTD bonds of each contract was between 1.4% - 1.8%. The current certificate of deposit rate is between 1.5% - 1.6%, so there are relatively few opportunities for cash - and - carry strategies [41]. 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Product Spreads - As of August 1, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2509 - 2512 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.042, - 0.055, + 0.025, and + 0.270 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.040, + 0.005, + 0.040, and + 0.050 yuan from the previous weekend [44][46]. 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Liquidity Situation - This week, the central bank's net reverse - repurchase injection was 69 billion yuan. Interest rates such as DR007 and R007 declined slightly, and the average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase decreased [49][51][53]. 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened, and the yield of 10 - year US treasury bonds declined. As of August 1, the US dollar index rose 1.04% to 98.6900, and the yield of 10 - year US treasury bonds was 4.23%, down 17 basis points from the previous weekend [58]. 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices fell across the board, and agricultural product prices mostly declined. As of August 1, the Southern China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3680.14, 6362.56, and 1713.91 points respectively, down 143.52, 231.91, and 74.12 points from the previous weekend [62]. 3.7 Investment Recommendations - It is expected that the market will rise first and then fall next week. Trading positions are advised to gradually withdraw from long positions, pay attention to short - hedging strategies for long - term bonds, and consider constructing steepening curve strategies after key time points [2][16][19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★☆★ [1] - Apple: Not rated - 20 - rubber: Not rated - Natural rubber: Not rated - Synthetic rubber: Not rated - Log: Not rated Core Views - The market sentiment of various soft commodities is generally weak, with most commodities showing downward trends or lack of clear upward momentum. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for most commodities, while maintaining a bullish view on logs [2][3][6][7]. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with the 09 contract reducing positions and the 01 contract increasing positions at a slower rate. The enthusiasm for long - positions was hit. - In July, cotton inventory digestion slowed, downstream demand was weak, and processing profits were under pressure. - Warehouse receipts were digested slowly, and there were concerns about their quality. - The anti - involution trading cooled down, and the 9 - 1 spread dropped significantly. - There is a strong expectation of increased production in Xinjiang in the new season. - It is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The production data of Brazil's central - southern region in the first half of July was moderately bearish. - In China, Zhengzhou sugar also fluctuated. After July, rainfall in Guangxi was good but may decrease later, increasing the uncertainty of the 25/26 sugar production in Guangxi. - US sugar is in a downward trend, and Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. It is expected that sugar prices will fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Early - maturing apples had a high opening price, but there were quality problems due to high - temperature weather. - As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 44.57%. The weekly cold - storage apple destocking volume last week was 86,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.66%. - The market is focused on the new - season apple production estimate. There are still differences in the production forecast. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 20 - rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - RU&MR continued to decline, and BR fluctuated weakly. International trade risks increased, and the sentiment in the rubber market weakened. - Global natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period, and there is heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. - The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants increased this week, but some plants will be under maintenance in early August. - The operating rates of domestic all - steel and semi - steel tires declined. - Rubber inventories increased. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Pulp - Pulp futures continued to decline. As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 2.105 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. - Domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, and it is in the traditional off - season. - The price may return to low - level fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Log - The futures price fluctuated. Spot prices remained stable. - The shipment of New Zealand logs was at a low level, and the supply was low. - As of July 25, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 64,100 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 1,700 cubic meters, an increase of 2.72%. - The total log inventory at national ports was 3.17 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 cubic meters. - The supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. It is expected that the futures price will continue to rise, and a bullish trading strategy is recommended [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global geopolitical tensions and US tariff proposals have led to a stagnant oil market, with traders on the sidelines. The decline in domestic manufacturing activity and weakening domestic and export demand have dragged down domestic commodities and the energy - chemical sector. The high volatility of crude oil continues, while the chemical industry is weaker due to the cooling of market sentiment [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors continue to drive oil prices, with high refinery开工 rates in China and the US providing support. However, supply pressure from OPEC+ is also present. The strong current situation driven by high refinery开工 and the weak expectation driven by supply pressure lead to oil price oscillations. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [9] - **Asphalt**: With rising oil prices, short - selling opportunities for asphalt emerge. The current asphalt price is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [10] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is regarded as weak. Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and geopolitical factors only cause short - term price fluctuations [10] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its price follows the weakening of crude oil. It faces factors such as falling shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel substitution, and is expected to maintain low - valuation fluctuations [12] - **PX**: The commodity sentiment has cooled, but the cost still provides some support. The overall supply - demand pattern has limited changes, and the inventory remains at a low level [14] - **PTA**: Some plants have short - term shutdowns, and the cost still has some support. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of major plant maintenance at the beginning of August [15] - **Pure Benzene**: There is no obvious driving force, and it oscillates in a narrow range. The fundamental situation has improved in the third quarter, but the rebound is restricted by inventory pressure [18] - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has cooled, and it oscillates in a narrow range. There is an expectation of weakening supply - demand, and port inventories are accumulating [19] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Typhoons have temporarily affected port inventory reduction. In the short term, the cost support has weakened, and supply pressure has increased. There is an expectation of inventory inflection [20] - **Short - Fiber**: The inventory has increased month - on - month. The price passively follows the raw materials, and downstream demand remains weak [22] - **Bottle - Chip**: It returns to the cost - pricing model. The price oscillates weakly following the decline of upstream raw materials [23] - **Methanol**: The port inventory is accumulating, and it oscillates in the short term. The production profit is still relatively high, and there is a negative feedback expectation in the downstream olefin sector [24] - **Urea**: The demand is generally weak, and the market is in a state of weak downward movement. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the market is expected to oscillate or decline [25] - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate has decreased, and it oscillates. Oil prices oscillate in the short term, and the supply pressure is still present. The demand is in the off - season, and overseas factors need to be monitored [27] - **PP**: Attention should be paid to the Sino - US game, and it oscillates. Oil prices oscillate, the supply side has an incremental trend, and the demand side is weak. Overseas factors and Sino - US tariff games need to be monitored [29] - **PL**: It mainly follows the fluctuations, and may oscillate in the short term. The short - term capital game is significant, and the spot impact is limited [29] - **PVC**: The policy expectation has cooled, and it mainly oscillates. The market sentiment has cooled, the fundamental situation is under pressure, and the cost is expected to rise [32] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price has been unexpectedly reduced, and it is under cautious pressure. The downstream demand has marginal changes, and the production is at a high level. The downward space is limited due to low inventory and cost support [32] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - term Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - term spread values and changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.8 with a change of 0.03, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 26 with a change of - 18 [33] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, asphalt's basis is 126 with a change of - 9, and the number of warehouse receipts is 81140 [34] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: There are also corresponding cross - variety spread values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 335 with a change of 28 [35] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Not provided with specific summarized content in the given text, only variety names are listed such as methanol, urea, etc. [36][47]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the investment market, focusing on the performance of various sectors and the implications of regulatory changes on investment strategies. Group 1: Insurance and Investment Strategies - The podcast highlights the rapid growth of the insurance sector since 2022 and the underlying logic behind this trend [5] - It discusses the regulatory push to lower the insurance preset interest rates starting in 2024, which is expected to impact investment decisions [6] - The assessment of state-owned insurance companies' evaluation mechanisms is seen as beneficial for the stock market [6] - Recommendations for investment allocation are provided, suggesting diversification and balanced approaches rather than chasing hot stocks [20] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - The equity market experienced significant declines, with over 80% of stocks falling and a median drop of approximately 1.45% [10] - External factors, particularly U.S.-China trade negotiations, are influencing market sentiment, with the U.S. gaining a psychological advantage [12] - Internal market dynamics show a cooling of "anti-involution" trading, leading to declines in previously high-performing sectors like steel and coal [14] - Commodity prices have returned to previous levels, indicating a correction in the market [15] Group 3: Specific Stock Insights - The stock of a pharmaceutical company, referred to as "药X," fell by 5.6% following a planned share placement, reflecting market reactions to corporate actions [21] - The article suggests maintaining good relations with company management for better insights into stock movements [22] Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The company advises waiting for upcoming earnings reports from major firms like Apple before making further investment decisions [23] - It notes that some fund companies have relaxed purchase limits on certain products, indicating a shift in market accessibility [24]

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (More bullish, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market) [1] - Sugar: ★★★ (More bullish, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Apple: ★★★ (More bullish, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Logs: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, with a driving force for an upward trend but limited operability on the market) [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ (More bullish, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ (More bullish, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ (Short - term long/short trends are in a relatively balanced state, and the market is not very operable) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and logs, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, weather factors, inventory levels, and other aspects [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with the 09 contract reducing positions and the 01 contract increasing positions at a lower rate. The enthusiasm for long - positions was hit. Cotton inventory digestion slowed in July, downstream demand was weak, and processing profits were under pressure. There were concerns about the quality of warehouse receipts. The anti - involution trading cooled, and the Sino - US economic and trade negotiation situation was still uncertain. Xinjiang has a strong production increase expectation for the new year. The 9 - 1 spread dropped significantly, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct intraday operations [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production progress in the main producing areas was slow, and the cane crushing volume and sugar production decreased significantly year - on - year. In China, Zhengzhou sugar also fluctuated. After July, rainfall in Guangxi was better than usual, but the later rainfall may decrease, increasing the uncertainty of sugar production in the 25/26 season. The US sugar trend is downward, and Zhengzhou sugar lacks positive factors. It is expected that the sugar price will remain volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Early - maturing apples had a high opening price, but there were quality problems due to high - temperature weather. Traders were bullish. As of July 24, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 648,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 44.57%. The cold - storage apple destocking volume last week was 86,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.66%. The market's focus shifted to the new - season output estimate. There are still differences in output forecasts, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - RU, MR, and BR continued to decline. International trade risks increased, and the Fed remained on hold, weakening the sentiment in the rubber market. The current prices of domestic natural and synthetic rubber generally decreased. The global natural rubber supply entered the high - yield period, and there was more heavy rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded, and some plants planned to conduct maintenance. The demand for tires was average, and inventories increased. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Pulp - Pulp futures continued to decline. As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.105 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous period. The domestic port inventory was relatively high year - on - year, the supply was relatively loose, and the demand was weak. The anti - involution sentiment cooled, and the pulp price may return to low - level fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price was stable. The supply from New Zealand was low. As of July 25, the average daily delivery volume of national ports was 64,100 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 2.72%. The total port log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters. The inventory pressure was relatively small. The supply - demand situation improved, and it is expected that the futures price will continue to rise. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view [8]

Report Summary 1. Core View - On July 29, the margin trading balance of A-shares reached 1.9684 trillion yuan, hitting a ten-year high since July 2015, much higher than the 1.5 - 1.7 trillion yuan during the bull market in 2021 [2] - Leveraged funds actively increased their positions in July, with the market risk appetite at a relatively high level. Since the September 24, 2024 market rally, the central level of margin trading balance has risen from 1.5 trillion yuan to 1.8 trillion yuan, and the oscillation range was finally broken through after half a year [2] - The continuous momentum of optimistic sentiment is strong. Firstly, the "anti - involution" trading is recognized by leveraged funds, betting on the expectation of policy intensification. Secondly, the interim reports catalyze the trading of high - growth sectors. High - growth industries such as pharmaceuticals and technology meet the stock - selection preferences of leveraged funds [2] 2. No Report Industry Investment Rating is Mentioned

Market Overview - On July 28, the equity market showed a strong rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 rising by 0.12% and 0.21% respectively[1] - The technology sector continued to perform well, with the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.96% and the STAR 50 Index rising by 0.09%[1] Commodity Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" related commodities experienced significant corrections, with futures prices for coking coal, glass, and soda ash dropping by 8.3%, 8.0%, and 0.9% respectively[2] - Coking coal futures hit the daily limit for five consecutive days from July 21 to 25, leading to heightened market sentiment before the recent policy changes[1] Price Trends and Basis Analysis - The basis for most "anti-involution" commodities has shifted from contango to backwardation, indicating that spot prices are now higher than futures prices[2] - From July, the spot prices for coking coal and polysilicon increased by 37.1% and 51.9% respectively, reflecting strong demand from the industrial sector[2] Trading Behavior and Market Sentiment - The trading limits imposed on coking coal futures have led to a reduction in speculative positions, with the long-to-short ratio for coking coal and lithium carbonate decreasing significantly[3] - Despite the adjustments, the long-to-short ratio for polysilicon and caustic soda remains above 1, indicating continued support from funds in these areas[3] Debt Market Recovery - The bond market is experiencing a recovery, with the yields on 10-year and 30-year government bonds declining by 1.8 basis points and 2.5 basis points to 1.72% and 1.92% respectively[1] - The People's Bank of China has injected significant liquidity into the market, with a net injection of 6,018 billion CNY on July 25 and 3,251 billion CNY on July 28, alleviating liquidity pressures[5] Future Outlook - The future performance of the "anti-involution" commodities will largely depend on the execution of industrial policies and the sustainability of price transmission in the spot market[4] - The upcoming US-China trade talks and domestic policy announcements, such as the child subsidy policy, are expected to influence market dynamics and investor sentiment[10]