Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [4] Core Viewpoints - Next week, most fundamental data is expected to be weak, but the M1 growth rate may continue to rise, and the market is relatively insensitive to fundamental data. The bond market in Q3 has seasonal patterns, with adjustment pressure increasing in the middle and late months. The decline in constraints on domestic incremental policies after the Fed's rate cut and the potential for an anti - involution market may suppress bond market sentiment. It is recommended to take a bearish approach to the bond market next week, continue to focus on short - hedging strategies, and consider steepening the yield curve strategies [2] Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From September 1st to September 7th, treasury bond futures oscillated. On Monday, the bond market strengthened; on Tuesday, both stocks and bonds declined; on Wednesday, the bond market first rose and then the gains narrowed; on Thursday, the bond market rose due to the stock market decline; on Friday, the bond market fell sharply. As of September 5th, the settlement prices of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures main contracts were 102.388, 105.580, 107.920, and 116.300 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.032, + 0.065, + 0.100, and - 0.260 yuan compared to last weekend [9] 1.2 Next Week's View - The bond market is expected to be weak next week. Fundamental data is concentrated, but the market is insensitive to it. The M1 growth rate may rise, and the risk appetite may increase. The approaching tax period will lead to marginal tightening of the capital side. The Fed's rate - cut expectation and the potential anti - involution market may suppress bond market sentiment. It is recommended to take a bearish approach, focus on short - hedging strategies, and consider steepening the yield curve strategies [2][11][12] 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 39 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 5629.61 billion yuan and a net financing of 3170.39 billion yuan. The net financing of treasury bonds increased, while that of local government bonds decreased, and that of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased [18] 2.2 Secondary Market - As of September 5th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds showed a differentiated trend. The 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y spreads narrowed, while the 10Y - 5Y spread widened. The implied tax rate increased [22] 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Position - As of September 5th, the settlement prices of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures main contracts changed compared to last weekend. The trading volumes and positions of each contract decreased compared to last weekend [32][35] 3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the opportunity for cash - and - carry arbitrage was not obvious. The basis of treasury bond futures generally oscillated narrowly, and the IRR of the CTD bonds of each main contract was between 1.4% - 1.8%. The basis and IRR of TL fluctuated greatly, but trading opportunities were difficult to grasp [39] 3.3 Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads - As of September 5th, the inter - period spreads of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures 2509 - 2512 contracts changed compared to last weekend [43] 4. Weekly Observation of the Capital Side - This week, the central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 12047 billion yuan. The R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week rates all decreased. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased, and the overnight proportion was slightly higher than last week [48][51][53] 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index oscillated narrowly, and the yield of the 10Y US treasury bond decreased. As of September 5th, the US dollar index fell 0.11% to 97.7357, and the yield of the 10Y US treasury bond was 4.10%, down 13BP from last weekend. The 8 - month non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, strengthening the rate - cut expectation [59] 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices fell, and agricultural product prices showed mixed trends. As of September 5th, the South China industrial product index, metal index, and energy and chemical index decreased, while the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits changed differently compared to last weekend [62] 7. Investment Suggestions - The bond market is expected to be weakly oscillating. It is recommended to take a bearish approach [63]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market dynamics, highlighting a strong rebound in the stock market and the emergence of "anti-involution" trading strategies in commodities, while also noting a slight tightening in the funding environment [3][6]. Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market experienced a strong rebound, attributed to major institutions realizing profits at the end of the quarter [6]. - The funding environment showed slight tightening, with the central bank conducting a 1,883 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, while 7,829 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 5,946 billion yuan [3][4]. - The long-term bond yields saw a slight increase, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.7525% to 1.78% during the day [6][7]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Funding Rates - The funding rates remained stable, with DR001 around 1.32% and DR007 at approximately 1.44% [4]. - The weighted rates for repos showed minimal changes, with R001 at 1.36% and R007 at 1.46%, indicating a slight decrease in transaction volumes [5]. - The overall transaction volume in the repo market was 76,332.53 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 3,275.32 billion yuan [5]. Group 3: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market saw a resurgence of "anti-involution" trading, with leading stocks like polysilicon hitting the upper limit, while government bond futures experienced a decline [7]. - The market sentiment regarding the "anti-involution" narrative appears mixed, as evidenced by the fluctuating performance of bond funds, with pure bond funds seeing negative net subscriptions after three days of small net purchases [7].

Economic Indicators - The China Strategic Emerging Industries Purchasing Managers Index (EPMI) for August is 47.8, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a marginal improvement in economic sentiment[4] - The production price index (PPI) is expected to decline by approximately 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year in August, reflecting weak overall factory prices despite a significant year-on-year improvement due to lower technical levels last year[6] Financial Data - From January to July, the real sector received approximately 19 trillion yuan in funding, an increase of 2.7 trillion yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by fiscal fund disbursements[10] - New deposits from residents amounted to 9.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 720 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards more liquid deposits[10] Market Trends - In the wake of new housing policies in Beijing, the year-on-year decline in commodity housing sales has narrowed, with second-hand housing sales showing a positive year-on-year growth[17] - Several small and medium-sized banks have lowered deposit rates, with rates for various terms adjusted down by 10 to 20 basis points[14] Risks - Ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, tariff increases, and global supply chain adjustments pose risks of export volatility and declining corporate profits[3] - Changes in global geopolitical situations and international market fluctuations may continue to impact commodity prices and related industries[3]

Summary of Conference Call on Black Industry Chain Industry Overview - The black industry chain has seen a significant reduction in the premium from anti-involution, with materials like polysilicon and lithium carbonate entering a period of expected adjustment, necessitating attention to steel demand in Q4 to avoid downward risks [1][2] - Iron ore has shown strong resistance to declines, but its sustainability is questionable if steel demand expectations are weak [1][5] - Coal production recovery post-inspection and the rapid increase in sea and Mongolian coal imports are critical factors to monitor [1][5] Key Points and Arguments Steel Market - Steel inventory is currently low, and the peak season demand has yet to be validated, leading to a gradual accumulation of inventory [1][9] - Price fluctuations are influenced by downstream replenishment willingness; lower prices encourage buying, while higher prices face resistance [1][9] - The forecast for rebar prices in Q3 and Q4 is between 3,100 to 3,400 RMB, with hot-rolled steel expected to be 100 RMB higher [3][25] Coal Market - The core driver for coking coal is policy regulation; without production limits, output may continue to rise, leading to potential oversupply [1][6] - The daily consumption of thermal coal is nearing its peak, with improving import volumes and domestic supply recovering to high levels, indicating potential price weakness ahead [1][7] - The Xinjiang overproduction issue is a significant concern for the coal market [1][8] Iron Ore Market - The iron ore market is expected to remain balanced, with port inventories projected to rise to 150 million tons by year-end [3][23] - The equilibrium price for iron ore is estimated around 240 USD, with fluctuations expected based on demand conditions [12] Future Outlook - The overall sentiment for Q4 is cautious, with potential for a weak market due to insufficient consumption drivers and weakening realities [1][28] - The steel export market is performing well, driven by the Belt and Road Initiative and domestic cost advantages, with a projected increase in exports of 1.3 to 1.5 million tons [20][21] - The focus for investment strategies should be on raw materials, particularly coking coal, as the market navigates through potential negative feedback loops [1][28][29] Additional Important Insights - The impact of recent policies, such as consumer loan interest subsidies, is expected to stimulate some demand but overall internal demand growth remains limited [19] - The black industry chain's performance is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors rather than fundamental supply-demand dynamics [13][17] - The market is currently characterized by a cautious approach, with a need for new expectations to drive price movements [1][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The alloy market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand. However, the recent rapid increase in supply and limited further growth in demand suggest potential weakening in the supply - demand balance. Iron alloys can be considered as short - side allocation in the industrial chain [5]. - As the "anti - involution" trading calms down, commodity performance is expected to diverge. Products with actual production cuts and policy support will likely remain strong, while others will be driven more by their own fundamentals [5]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - **Supply**: The production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese continued to rise this week, and the operating rates in recent weeks have shown an accelerating upward trend [5]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output of 247 steel mills slightly increased, but the apparent demand for steel, especially for rebar, decreased more than seasonally. Combined with the poor macro data in July, there is a risk of a decline in the demand side [5]. - **Cost**: The electricity price remained stable this week, and the price of port manganese ore increased slightly [5]. - **Market sentiment**: "Anti - involution" leading varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal are oscillating at high levels. As the "anti - involution" trading calms down, commodity performance will diverge. Iron alloys' supply - demand is currently stable but may face pressure from the accelerating supply increase [5]. Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Due to the recent accelerating increase in supply, iron alloys can be used as short - side allocation in the industrial chain [6]. - **Arbitrage**: When the basis is low, cash - and - carry arbitrage can be considered [6]. - **Options**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.66 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.34 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types was 2.03 tons (accounting for about 70% of the total demand), unchanged from the previous week. The weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel types (70%) was 12.54 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 tons [11]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 36.18%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86%. The national ferrosilicon production (weekly supply) was 11.28 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 45.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.32%. The national silicomanganese production (99% of weekly supply) was 20.71 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.12 tons [12]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15th, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 6.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of national capacity) was 15.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 tons [13]. Cost and Profit - **Silicomanganese**: In Inner Mongolia, the production cost was 5899 yuan/ton with a profit of - 99 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 53.8%. In Ningxia, the production cost was 5938 yuan/ton with a profit of - 38 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 21.1%. In Guangxi, the production cost was 6432 yuan/ton with a profit of - 532 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 3.1%. In Guizhou, the production cost was 6178 yuan/ton with a profit of - 308 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 3.2% [30]. - **Ferrosilicon**: In Inner Mongolia, the production cost was 5499 yuan/ton with a profit of - 49 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 29.1%. In Ningxia, the production cost was 5352 yuan/ton with a profit of 148 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 27.1%. In Shaanxi, the production cost was 5564 yuan/ton with a profit of - 114 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 18.1%. In Qinghai, the production cost was 5421 yuan/ton with a profit of 79 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 15.3%. In Gansu, the production cost was 5573 yuan/ton with a profit of - 73 yuan/ton and a monthly output share of 9.5% [41]. Other Data - **Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon Import and Export**: Data on the monthly net import of manganese ore and the monthly net export of ferrosilicon are presented, showing trends over different time periods [69]. - **Metal Magnesium Demand**: Information on the price of magnesium in Fugu and the cumulative production of magnesium in Yulin, Shaanxi is provided [71]. - **Silicon - Iron Inventory**: Data on the silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants and the available days of silicon - iron inventory in steel mills are given, including regional breakdowns [75]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: Information on the available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills, the total inventory of manganese ore in Tianjin Port, and the silicomanganese inventory of alloy plants is presented [78].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Administration have introduced two loan interest subsidy policies aimed at stimulating consumer spending and impacting the bond market [1][2] - The subsidy policy acts as a targeted interest rate cut, effectively reducing the financing costs for consumers, with potential rates dropping to as low as 1.75% for personal loans [1][2] - The implementation of the subsidy policy is set to last until August 31, 2026, allowing the central bank to monitor its effects on core CPI before making further interest rate decisions [2][4] Group 2 - The current liquidity in the interbank market remains comfortable, with overnight repo rates hovering around 1.31%, indicating ample supply [3] - August is a significant month for government bond net supply, which is expected to maintain liquidity stability, despite potential short-term tightening due to tax periods [3] - The anticipated increase in inflation expectations due to supply-side policies and consumer loan subsidies may lead to a cautious approach from the central bank regarding interest rate cuts, further delaying any potential reductions [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 13, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coal. Although the current profit situation of steel mills is good and molten iron production remains high, providing support for ferroalloy demand, in the long - term, the real estate market is in a slump, and the support from the home appliance and automotive industries for steel depends on policy stimulus and cannot be sustained. The supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and the support from the ore end for ferromanganese is insufficient. In the short - term, the anti - involution trading sentiment has subsided, but the market still has expectations for supply contraction. The logic of ferroalloys lies in the price of coking coal, with large fluctuations in the coking coal futures market and intense capital games. The production of ferroalloys is gradually increasing, which limits the upside space. Whether ferroalloys can continue to fall depends on the support levels of 5650 for ferrosilicon and 5900 for ferromanganese [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - **Ferrosilicon**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 69.0% [3]. - **Ferromanganese**: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 28.5% [3]. 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there is a concern about the decline in ferroalloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15% and a suggested entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising ferroalloy prices, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a suggested entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The short - term price of ferroalloys is affected by coking coal prices, while the long - term demand outlook is constrained by the real estate market and the uncertainty of policy - driven demand from the home appliance and automotive industries. The supply of manganese ore is sufficient, and the production of ferroalloys is increasing, which restricts price increases [4]. 3.4利多解读 - **Ferrosilicon**: The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products is 2.03 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.01%. The warehouse receipt inventory of ferrosilicon is 9.82 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.89%, and the total inventory is 17 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.3% [6]. - **Ferromanganese**: The government's control policies for high - energy - consuming industries are still strict, and the ferromanganese industry may undergo industrial structure adjustment and upgrading. The weekly demand for ferromanganese in five major steel products is 12.52 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%. The enterprise inventory is 16.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%, the warehouse receipt is 38.02 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%, and the total inventory is 54.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1%. The profit in the northern region is - 98.14 yuan/ton (+70.51), and the profit in the southern region is - 425.86 yuan/ton (+85.56) [7]. 3.5利空解读 - **Ferrosilicon**: The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises is 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%, and the weekly output is 10.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.5%. The enterprise inventory is 7.18 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.45%. The profit in the Inner Mongolia production area is - 49 yuan/ton (-134), and the profit in the Ningxia production area is 48 yuan/ton (-234) [7]. - **Ferromanganese**: In the long - term, the real estate market is in a slump, and the market has doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for ferromanganese [7]. 3.6 Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and warehouse receipts are provided for different regions and contracts on August 13, 2025, August 12, 2025, and August 6, 2025, along with daily and weekly comparisons [7]. - **Ferromanganese**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, manganese ore prices, and warehouse receipts are provided for different regions and contracts on August 13, 2025, August 12, 2025, and August 6, 2025, along with daily and weekly comparisons [8][9]. 3.7 Seasonal Charts - Seasonal charts of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese market prices, basis, and futures spreads in different regions and contracts are provided, which can be used to analyze historical price trends and patterns [10][11][19][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Recently, rebar and hot-rolled coils have maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with price increases mainly driven by rising coking coal and coke prices. There may be opportunities to go long on the spread between near and far contracts of rebar, and it is worth trying to short the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar in the short term. The ratio of rebar to iron ore is at a low level, presenting a good long - term long - opportunity, while the ratio of rebar to coke has entered a downward cycle [8][45]. - The market is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, with "anti - involution" trading supporting futures prices. Seasonal improvement in demand is expected to be reflected in prices in advance [8]. - With the arrival of the consumption peak season, overall steel production is likely to increase slightly, and inventory is expected to continue to decline [8][94]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Main Views - Supply: Due to good production profits, overall steel production has remained stable in the past quarter, with the output of five major varieties fluctuating between 850 - 900 million tons per week, rebar output at around 220 million tons per week, and hot - rolled coil output recently decreasing. Production is expected to rise slightly in the peak season [8][94]. - Demand: The apparent demand for rebar has increased month - on - month, while that for hot - rolled coils has decreased. The overall apparent demand for the five major varieties has continued to decline. Apparent demand is expected to recover after the end of the summer heat, but the increase will be limited [8][94]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventories are decreasing. Although social inventories rebounded last week, the total inventory of the five major varieties has increased but remains significantly lower than last year. Currently, inventory pressure is low, and inventory may continue to decline in the peak season [8][94]. - Futures price support: "Anti - involution" trading supports futures prices, and the market is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Seasonal demand improvement is expected to be reflected in prices in advance [8][94]. - Price trends and trading opportunities: Recently, rebar and hot - rolled coils have been volatile and slightly stronger, driven by coking coal and coke prices. There may be opportunities to go long on the spread between near and far contracts of rebar, while there are no trading opportunities for hot - rolled coil spreads for now. It is worth trying to short the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in the short term. The ratio of rebar to iron ore is at a low level with significant upside potential, and the ratio of rebar to coke has entered a downward cycle [8][45]. - Trading strategy: Treat rebar and hot - rolled coils with a wide - range volatility mindset, avoid chasing highs or selling lows, and try high - selling and low - buying operations with firm profit - taking and slightly larger stop - losses. Price movements will follow coking coal and coke, but with smaller price changes [8][94]. 3.2 Review of the Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Futures and Spot Markets - Spot prices: Recently, rebar was generally weak, with prices in Shanghai and Guangzhou falling. Hot - rolled coils were generally strong, with prices in Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Tianjin rising by 10 - 40 yuan [12][13]. - Futures prices: Rebar futures prices rose and then fell, with the basis narrowing. Hot - rolled coil prices also rose and then fell, approaching flat price. The basis of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils generally showed a narrowing trend [15][17][18]. - Spreads: The spread between near and far contracts of rebar has been falling, and there may be long - spread opportunities. The inter - contract spread of hot - rolled coils has been narrowly fluctuating, with no trading opportunities. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in the 10 - contract has rapidly expanded, deviating from the normal level, and shorting this spread is worth trying [21][23][26]. - Other spreads: The spreads between different regions and varieties have generally widened, indicating improved downstream processing profits [36][38]. 3.3 Analysis of Steel Supply and Demand - Supply: Recent crude steel production has significantly declined, mainly due to previous low prices and poor expectations. Steel weekly production is higher than last year, and the output of independent electric arc furnaces remains relatively high. Iron - water production has also decreased slightly [47][49][56]. - Demand: The apparent demand for building materials has improved month - on - month, while that for hot - rolled coils has weakened. Steel exports rebounded in July, with the growth rate accelerating, mainly driven by high - speed growth in billet exports [62][65][67]. - Profit: The decline in gross profit is mainly due to the recent significant increase in coking coal and coke prices compared to rebar. Currently, the valley - electricity profit in all regions has improved significantly, and only the southwest region has good flat - electricity profit. Profit is expected to continue to improve in the third quarter, so short - term electric arc furnace output is not expected to decline significantly [70][79]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventories of major varieties are increasing but still in a downward trend. Social inventories are continuously increasing, with hot - rolled coil inventories rebounding rapidly. The total inventory of major varieties has increased month - on - month but is still significantly lower than last year [80][83][86]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Opportunity Analysis - Market outlook: "Anti - involution" continues to support futures prices, and seasonal improvement in demand may be reflected in prices in advance. The market will continue the game between strong expectations and weak reality [93]. - Investment opportunities: There may be opportunities to go long on the spread between near and far contracts of rebar, and it is worth trying to short the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in the short term. The ratio of rebar to iron ore is at a low level, presenting a good long - term long - opportunity, while the ratio of rebar to coke has entered a downward cycle [8][45].

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 11, 2025 [1] - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - In the short term, the price trend of ferroalloys mainly follows the price fluctuations of coal. The current good profit situation of steel mills and high molten iron production provide support for ferroalloy demand. In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the support from the home appliance and automobile industries for steel depends on policy stimulus. The supply of manganese ore is relatively sufficient, and the support from the ore end for ferromanganese is insufficient. The anti - involution trading sentiment has faded, but the market still has expectations for supply - side contraction. The logic of ferroalloys lies in the price of coking coal, with large short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to lightly test long positions after a pullback [4] Summary by Content Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for ferrosilicon is in the range of 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 69.0%. The monthly price forecast for ferromanganese is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.48% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.5% [3] Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and a recommended entry range of SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventories, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] 利多 Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the ferromanganese industry. This week, the demand for silicon iron in five major steel products was 2.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.01%. The silicon iron warehouse receipt inventory was 9.82 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.89%, and the total inventory was 17 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3% [5][7] - **Silicon Manganese**: The demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products was 12.52 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.25%. The enterprise inventory was 16.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.52%, the warehouse receipt was 38.02 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.34%, and the total inventory was 54.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. The profit in the northern region was - 98.14 yuan/ton (+70.51), and in the southern region was - 425.86 yuan/ton (+85.56) [8] 利空 Factors - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly production start - up rate of silicon iron production enterprises was 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%, and the weekly output was 10.91 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.5%. The enterprise inventory was 7.18 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.45%. The profit in the Inner Mongolia production area was - 49 yuan/ton (-134), and in the Ningxia production area was 48 yuan/ton (-234) [8] - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, so the demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak. The weekly production start - up rate of silicon manganese production enterprises was 43.43%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%, and the weekly output was 19.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.62% [8] Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: On August 11, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 22, the 01 - 05 spread was - 98, the 05 - 09 spread was 284, the 09 - 01 spread was - 186. The spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu were 5600, 5550, 5600, 5600, and 5500 respectively. The prices of semi - coke small materials, Qinhuangdao thermal coal, and Yulin thermal coal were 595, 682, and 570 respectively. The warehouse receipt was 19646 [8] - **Silicon Manganese**: On August 8, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 104, the 01 - 05 spread was - 40, the 05 - 09 spread was 138, the 09 - 01 spread was - 98, and the double - silicon spread was - 274. The spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Yunnan were 5850, 5800, 5850, 5870, and 5830 respectively. The prices of Tianjin Australian ore, Tianjin South African ore, Tianjin Gabonese ore, Qinzhou South African ore, Qinzhou Gabonese ore, and Inner Mongolia chemical coke were 40.7, 35, 40.2, 37.8, 40.5, and 1110 respectively. The warehouse receipt was 76045 [9][10] Seasonal Data - The report also provides seasonal data on the market prices, basis, and futures spreads of silicon iron and silicon manganese, as well as the seasonal data of total silicon iron inventory and silicon manganese inventory [11][12][13][14][15][16][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The equity market continues to rise, with a positive attitude towards the subsequent market in August. One can continue to hold IM long - positions in stock index futures. In stock index options, it is recommended to continue holding covered positions and guard against small - cap corrections. For treasury bond futures, the market is still digesting the Politburo meeting news, and the short - end may perform better in the future, with a relatively high odds of steepening the yield curve in the medium term [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - The small - cap style is strong. The basis, spreads, and total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts have different changes. The market shows that small - caps are stronger than large - caps, with multiple industry themes rising. Several market signals are worthy of attention, and the short - term market trend can be more positive. It is recommended to hold IM [7] Stock Index Options - The strategy is to use covered positions while guarding against small - and medium - cap corrections. The underlying market rose across the board, and the option market liquidity is relatively stable. The sentiment indicators show that the seller has a strong expectation of an upward trend, and there is some caution towards small - and medium - caps. Volatility fluctuates, and it is recommended to continue the covered position strategy and reduce the directional exposure on the small - cap side in the short term [8] Treasury Bond Futures - The market is continuing to digest the Politburo meeting information. The treasury bond futures rose, and the long - end of the treasury bond cash bonds performed better than the short - end. The short - term bond market sentiment has recovered, but in the medium term, it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Different strategies are recommended for different trading purposes [9][10] 2. Economic Calendar - The economic data of the United States, China, and Europe in the current week are presented, including indicators such as the US factory orders, ISM non - manufacturing PMI, China's trade balance, and the UK central bank benchmark interest rate [11] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - In transportation, relevant departments have issued a plan to innovate the investment and financing model for rural roads. In the non - banking financial sector, Shanghai has introduced measures to promote the high - quality development of commercial health insurance. In the industrial Internet field, Hubei has made progress in the digital transformation of industrial enterprises [12][13] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - Data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are to be monitored, but specific data details are not fully provided in the given content [14][18][30]