Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals fluctuated upwards, with the main contract of Shanghai gold closing up 1.31% and the main contract of Shanghai silver closing up 0.15%. It is expected that precious metals will fluctuate upwards in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The strategy is for conservative investors to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long positions of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF slightly reduced. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly increased [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Gold - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, regarding risk aversion, although trade agreements are being reached in batches, concerns about European and American debts and the independence of the Federal Reserve have resurfaced. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, with employment weakening and inflation being moderate, leading to a rebound in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts. In terms of the risk - aversion attribute, the yield of the US 30 - year Treasury bond rose to the highest level since mid - July, following the trends in European and British bond markets, as investors worried that governments of major economies were losing control of fiscal deficits. Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Cook, and Cook's lawsuit against Trump for overstepping his authority, raised concerns about the Fed's independence. In terms of the monetary attribute, Powell hinted that the Fed might need to cut interest rates but would act cautiously. He announced the Fed's new policy framework, returning to a flexible inflation target. The US manufacturing PMI has shrunk for six consecutive months, and factories said that tariffs have made the situation worse than during the Great Recession. Currently, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has soared from 40% before the July non - farm payrolls to about 90%, and the expected number of interest rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times. The US dollar index and Treasury bond yields fluctuated strongly. In terms of the commodity attribute, the rebound of the CRB commodity index was under pressure, and the depreciation of the RMB was beneficial to domestic prices [2]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $3599.50 per ounce, up 2.37% from the previous day and 4.54% from the previous week; London gold was at $3490.00 per ounce, up 0.43% from the previous day and 3.65% from the previous week; the main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 814.88 yuan per gram, up 1.31% from the previous day and 4.32% from the previous week; gold T + D closed at 809.97 yuan per gram, up 1.27% from the previous day and 4.16% from the previous week [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions were 443,760 lots, down 0.54% from the previous week; Shanghai gold's main contract positions were 142,330 lots, up 2.67% from the previous day and down 14.57% from the previous week; gold TD positions were 221,198 lots, up 1.73% from the previous day and 10.56% from the previous week. LBMA inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, down 1.08% from the previous week; Shanghai gold inventory was 18 tons, up 1.32% from the previous week [2]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai gold futures companies at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 118,272 lots, an increase of 266 lots; the top 10 totaled 153,498 lots, a decrease of 146 lots; the top 20 totaled 195,167 lots, an increase of 1,757 lots. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 15,049 lots, an increase of 356 lots; the top 10 totaled 21,936 lots, an increase of 540 lots; the top 20 totaled 26,248 lots, an increase of 964 lots [3]. 2. Silver - **Core Logic**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long positions of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF slightly reduced. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly increased [5]. - **Data**: - **Prices**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $41.73 per ounce, up 2.40% from the previous day and 7.84% from the previous week; London silver was at $40.52 per ounce, down 0.14% from the previous day and up 5.47% from the previous week; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 9,820 yuan per kilogram, down 0.04% from the previous day and up 5.53% from the previous week; silver T + D closed at 9,780 yuan per kilogram, down 0.20% from the previous day and up 5.60% from the previous week [6]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions were 158,630 lots, up 0.10% from the previous week; Shanghai silver's main contract positions were 4,996,200 lots, up 0.69% from the previous day and 18.68% from the previous week; silver TD positions were 3,489,224 lots, down 0.03% from the previous day and up 4.02% from the previous week. The visible inventory totaled 42,796 tons, up 0.90% from the previous week [6]. - **Net Positions of Futures Companies**: Among the top 10 net - long positions of Shanghai silver futures companies at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 totaled 119,197 lots, an increase of 868 lots; the top 10 totaled 165,732 lots, an increase of 2,404 lots; the top 20 totaled 210,707 lots, an increase of 5,979 lots. Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 48,371 lots, an increase of 1,638 lots; the top 10 totaled 77,222 lots, a decrease of 254 lots; the top 20 totaled 100,335 lots, a decrease of 1,599 lots [7]. 3. Fundamental Key Data - **Federal Reserve - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are $665.4234 billion, down $1.5239 billion from the previous value. M2 (year - on - year) is 4.82%, up 0.60 percentage points [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.59, up 1.97% from the previous day and the previous week; the US dollar index is 98.32, up 0.63% from the previous day and 0.12% from the previous week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) is 0.54, down 15.63% from the previous day [8]. - **Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts in different meetings from September 2025 to December 2026 are presented in a table, showing the probabilities of different interest - rate ranges [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market showed a weak and volatile trend this week. The main reasons were the continuous decline in safe - haven demand, the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict (although there were still uncertainties), and the "dampening" of the September interest - rate cut expectation by three Fed officials before Powell's speech. The initial jobless claims in the US last week reached the largest increase in about three months, the labor market remained weak, and the US dollar index and US Treasury yields were strong. The expectation of a September interest - rate cut by the Fed dropped from 85% to around 71%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts this year decreased from 3 to 2. It is expected that precious metals will be weak and volatile in the short term. In the medium and long term, the rising risk of economic recession may force the Fed to cut interest rates, and the precious metals' long - term upward trend remains due to the "de - dollarization" process. The Fed's Powell may cool down the interest - rate cut expectation at the global central bank annual meeting, and investors are advised to manage risks in advance [5]. - After the non - farm payrolls report, many Fed officials still believed that they were not ready to change their economic outlook before seeing more data. The September interest - rate cut was not certain. Powell at the global central bank annual meeting might suppress the current aggressive interest - rate cut expectation in the market. Technically, London gold returned to the lower edge of the triangular pattern, and there was a risk of a short - term downward break, with an expected trend of falling first and then rising [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Safe - Haven Attribute - There were still uncertainties in the Russia - Ukraine situation, and the risk of geopolitical conflict remained. Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Russia's large - scale attacks in multiple regions of Ukraine overnight showed that Moscow was avoiding negotiations to end the war [1]. - The Trump trade war entered a new stage. White House officials said that Trump had signed an executive order, and the truce period of China - US tariffs was extended by another 90 days [1]. 2. Monetary Attribute - This week, several Fed officials "dampened" the expectation of a September interest - rate cut. The initial jobless claims in the US last week reached the largest increase in about three months, and the labor market remained weak. The Fed meeting minutes showed that only two policymakers supported an interest - rate cut at the July meeting. US retail sales in July increased strongly, and wholesale prices jumped, adding uncertainties to the Fed's interest - rate cut roadmap [2]. - After the non - farm payrolls report, there were still differences within the Fed. The expectation of a September interest - rate cut by the Fed dropped from 85% to around 71%, and the expected number of interest - rate cuts this year decreased from 3 to 2. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields faced resistance in their downward movement and were strong [2]. 3. Commodity Attribute - Although gold jewelry consumption was suppressed by high prices, the investment demand for gold bars and other products offset some of the impact. Emerging market central banks, including the People's Bank of China, promoted the central bank's gold - buying demand to remain at a high level through the "de - dollarization" strategy [2]. - The World Silver Association expected that due to a 1% decrease in demand and a 2% increase in total supply, the global silver supply - demand gap in 2025 would narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces (about 3,658 tons) [2]. 4. Capital Flow - Recently, the net long positions of CFTC managed funds continued to be reduced; the net long positions of domestic Shanghai gold futures companies at a high level were continuously reduced, and the net long positions of Shanghai silver were slightly increased at a low level; the world's largest gold ETF and silver ETF ended their long - term downward trend and slowly increased their positions [3]. 5. Future Investment Logic Evolution No relevant content provided. 6. Strategy - Short - term: Weak and volatile. - Medium - term: High - level volatility. - Long - term: Step - by - step upward [5]. 7. Support and Resistance - Shanghai gold main contract: Support at 760 - 765, resistance at 780 - 785. - Shanghai silver main contract: Support at 9000 - 9030, resistance at 9400 - 9430 [5]. 8. 2024 - 2025 Fed Monetary Policy Path Review - In June 2014, the Fed kept the interest rate policy unchanged, but the updated dot - plot suggested a significant reduction in the expected number of interest - rate cuts this year, from three to one [7]. - In July 2014, the Fed continued to keep the interest rate unchanged, confirmed progress in inflation reduction, and mentioned that interest - rate cuts might be an option in September [7]. - In September 2014, the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and the target range of the Fed's benchmark interest rate was expected to be further reduced by the end of the year and in 2025 and 2026 [7]. - In November 2014, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the statement removed the expression about "gaining confidence in the fight against inflation" [8][9]. - In December 2014, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the new dot - plot showed that policymakers expected only two 25 - basis - point interest - rate cuts by the end of 2025 [9]. - In January 2025, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged for the first time since starting the interest - rate cut cycle in September 2014, and the policy statement removed the expression about "progress in inflation towards the target" [9]. - In March 2025, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged, slowed down the balance - sheet reduction rhythm from April 1, and expected two interest - rate cuts this year, but the number of those who expected no interest - rate cuts increased [9]. - In May 2025, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged, and the FOMC statement said that the uncertainty of the economic outlook increased, and the risks of rising unemployment and inflation both increased [9]. - In June 2025, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged, expected a slowdown in economic growth this year, an increase in the unemployment rate and inflation, and a slight slowdown in the interest - rate cut pace [9]. 9. Precious Metals Commonly Used Database (1) Monetary Attribute - Multiple aspects of US economic data were presented, including inflation (CPI, PCE, etc.), economic growth (GDP), employment (unemployment rate, non - farm payrolls, etc.), real estate (housing market index, new home sales, etc.), consumption (retailer sales, personal consumption expenditure, etc.), industry (industrial production index, durable goods orders, etc.), trade (trade balance), economic leading indicators (PMI, consumer confidence index, etc.), and key indicators (US Treasury yields, US dollar index, etc.). Also, the Fed's monetary policy tracking data was provided [11][15][21][26][35][46][47][55][59][68]. (2) Safe - Haven Attribute - The volatility of the US stock market was presented, specifically the relationship between the S&P 500 index and the volatility index (VIX) [69][71]. (3) Commodity Attribute - The trends of the offshore RMB, CRB commodity index, and their relationships with precious metals were presented, including the relationship between the CRB commodity price index, Shanghai gold main contract closing price, and offshore RMB exchange rate, as well as the relationship between the US dollar against the offshore RMB and the China - US ten - year Treasury yield spread [72][73]. (4) Capital Flow - The net positions of CFTC managed funds and the positions of gold and silver ETFs were presented [74][77].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Gold is weak and silver is strong, mainly due to the short - term high - level callback of risk - aversion demand, and the possibility of the Fed's near - term interest rate cut is eliminated. The expected supply - demand gap of silver still exists, and the inflation expectation rebounds due to the trade war, improving the expected industrial demand for silver [7]. - Medium - term: The risk of economic recession increases, which may force the interest - rate cut logic to be in the making. Precious metals will continue to fluctuate at a high level [7][9]. - Long - term: The global trade war promotes the reconstruction of the economic and political system and accelerates the reconstruction of the monetary system. There is still an upward trend for precious metals in the process of "de - dollarization" [7][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Risk - aversion Attribute - Trade agreements are reached in batches, and the negotiation of the US - EU trade agreement has made progress. The geopolitical risk eases, weakening the risk - aversion demand [2]. - Trump's threats to the Fed's independence have eased market concerns [2]. 2. Monetary Attribute - US economic data is mixed. In June, existing home sales dropped to a nine - month low, while the number of initial jobless claims last week hit a three - month low [3]. - The European Central Bank keeps interest rates unchanged, and the optimistic economic forecast triggers speculation about the end of interest rate cuts. The Fed is more divided and remains cautious about interest rate cuts. The market expects the next Fed interest rate cut to be stable until September, and the total interest rate cut space in 2025 drops to about 50 basis points. The decline of the US dollar index and US bond yields is blocked [3]. 3. Commodity Attribute - Although gold jewelry consumption is suppressed by high prices, the investment demand for gold bars offsets some of the impact. Emerging market central banks' "de - dollarization" strategy promotes central bank gold - buying demand to remain high [4]. - The World Silver Association expects that due to a 1% decline in demand and a 2% increase in total supply, the global silver supply - demand gap in 2025 will narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces (about 3,658 tons) [4]. 4. Capital Flow - Recently, the net long positions of CFTC managed funds in gold and silver have increased again. Domestic Shanghai gold futures companies have reduced their net long positions at a high level, and Shanghai silver institutions have slightly reduced their net long positions. The world's largest gold ETF and silver ETF have ended their long - term downward trends and slowly increased their positions [5]. 5. Future Investment Logic Evolution - Short - term: Gold is weak and silver is strong. - Medium - term: Precious metals will continue to fluctuate at a high level. - Long - term: Precious metals show an upward trend [7][9]. 6. Strategy - Short - term: Gold is weak and silver is strong. - Medium - term: Fluctuate at a high level. - Long - term: Step - by - step upward [7]. 7. Support and Resistance - Shanghai gold main contract: Support at 755 - 760, resistance at 790 - 795. - Shanghai silver main contract: Support at 9000 - 9030, resistance at 9600 - 9630 [7]. 8. 2024 - 2025 Fed Monetary Policy Path Review - From June 2024 to June 2025, the Fed's monetary policy has gone through multiple stages, including keeping interest rates unchanged, cutting interest rates, and adjusting the pace of interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has also changed accordingly [10][11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No data provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations remaining. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing expectations of interest rate cuts. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show a pattern of weak gold and strong silver in the short - term, high - level fluctuations in the medium - term, and a step - by - step upward trend in the long - term. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long positions of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have been reduced again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently. [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed down 0.03%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 0.07%. [1] - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, there are risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing expectations of interest rate cuts. [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Hedging Attribute**: Trump has escalated the trade war, and the EU has threatened to take counter - measures against US tariffs. Trump said he does not plan to fire Powell, which has alleviated market concerns. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: The Fed's Beige Book shows that US economic activity has increased, but tariffs have brought price pressure, making the outlook pessimistic. US inflation in June remained resilient, but the year - on - year increase in core CPI was 2.9%, and the month - on - month increase was 0.2%, both lower than market expectations. The overall US employment growth was stronger than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims last week unexpectedly dropped to a seven - week low. Currently, the market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated strongly. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index was under pressure, and the strong RMB suppressed domestic prices. [1] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2] 3.2 Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. [4] - **Capital and Inventory**: In terms of capital, the net long positions of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have been reduced again. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently. [4] - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [5] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attribute Data**: The federal funds target rate upper limit is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, the Fed's total assets are 67132.36 billion US dollars, M2 year - on - year growth is 4.50%, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.61, the US dollar index is 98.32, the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.53, etc. [7] - **Hedging Attribute Data**: The geopolitical risk index is 122.08, and the VIX index is 17.14. [10] - **Commodity Attribute Data**: The CRB commodity index is 303.15, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1842. [10] 3.4 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate levels at different meetings from July 2025 to December 2026 is provided in the table, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate decisions at different times. [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of precious metals is expected to be volatile and bullish, with a high - level oscillation in the medium - term and a step - up movement in the long - term. The price trend of gold serves as an anchor for the price of silver. [1][5] - For both gold and silver, the recommended strategy is for conservative investors to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is advised to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, the precious metals market showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai Gold Futures closed down 0.03%, while the main contract of Shanghai Silver Futures closed up 0.62%. [1] - **Core Logic**: In the short term, there are still risks of repeated Trump - era trade wars, economic recession, and geopolitical fluctuations. The risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts. [1] - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven Attribute**: A phone call between Chinese and US leaders is expected to focus on rare earths and export controls in Sino - US trade talks. [1] - **Monetary Attribute**: The New York Fed's consumer expectations survey shows that in May, US public anxiety about the future inflation path eased. The one - year inflation expectation of respondents was 3.2% (down from 3.6% in April). The US added 139,000 non - farm payrolls in May, higher than the market expectation of 130,000. Employment growth continued to slow under the influence of trade policy uncertainties, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month. The market currently expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly. [1] - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - **Data Summary**: Various data such as international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and gold ETFs are presented, showing different changes compared to the previous day and the previous week. For example, the Comex gold main contract closed at $3346.70 per ounce, up $15.70 (0.47%) from the previous day and down $59.70 (-1.75%) from the previous week. [2] Silver - **Influencing Factors**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have increased their positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has increased slightly. [5] - **Data Summary**: Similar to gold, data on international and domestic prices, basis and spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC managed fund net positions, and silver ETFs are provided. For instance, the Comex silver main contract closed at $36.91 per ounce, up $0.77 (2.15%) from the previous day and up $1.98 (5.65%) from the previous week. [6] Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) are all 4.50%, 4.50%, and 4.40% respectively, with a decrease of 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value. The Fed's total assets are $6723.632 billion, down $514 million (-0.00%) from the previous day. [8] - **Other Economic Indicators**: Include M2 growth rate, ten - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, US Treasury yield spreads, inflation indicators (CPI, PCE), economic growth indicators (GDP), unemployment rate, employment data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and central bank gold reserves. For example, the CPI (year - on - year) is 2.30%, down 0.10 percentage points; the GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00%, down 0.90 percentage points. [9][10][12] - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at various Fed meetings from June 2025 to December 2026 is presented. For example, at the June 18, 2025 meeting, the probability of the federal funds rate being in the 425 - 450 range is 99.9%. [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The gold price is in a high - level oscillation this week, while the silver price has skyrocketed continuously, and the gold - silver ratio at a high level has rapidly corrected. It is expected that the gold - silver ratio will continue to decline in the short term, and investors should focus on the opportunity for silver to catch up in price. The market's expectation for the non - farm data is weak, and investors are advised to pay attention to the possibility of data exceeding expectations and conduct risk management in advance. [9][11] - The short - term trend of precious metals is oscillating with a slight upward bias, showing a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The medium - term trend is a high - level oscillation, and the long - term trend is a step - by - step upward movement. [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Property Analysis 3.1.1. Safe - haven Attribute - The safe - haven sentiment during Trump's trade war has been realized. The leaders of China and the United States had a phone call, agreeing to hold a new round of talks as soon as possible and extend mutual visit invitations. However, there are still risks of escalation in geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, Russia - Ukraine, etc. [4] - The United States was downgraded by Moody's, completely leaving the top - tier AAA credit rating club. The demand for the $16 billion 20 - year bonds auctioned by the US Treasury was weak due to investors' concerns about the increasing US debt burden. The US debt scale has exceeded $36 trillion, and the deteriorating fiscal situation has intensified the market's doubts about the US dollar credit system. [4] 3.1.2. Monetary Attribute - The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and the overall employment data has weakened. The market has reignited the expectation of an earlier interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. After the number of layoffs and the ADP employment data, the latest number of initial jobless claims in the US last week reached a seven - month high, and the import decline in April set a record. [5] - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected but hinted that its one - year easing cycle would pause after the inflation rate finally returned to the central bank's 2% target. Currently, the market expects the Federal Reserve to stabilize its next interest rate cut until September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. [5] 3.1.3. Commodity Attribute - Although the consumption of gold jewelry is suppressed by high prices, the investment demand for gold bars and other products offsets some of the impact. Emerging market central banks, including the People's Bank of China, are implementing a "de - dollarization" strategy, which keeps the central bank's gold purchase demand at a high level. [5] - The CRB commodity index has faced pressure in its rebound from a low level, and the continuous appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic precious metal prices. The easing of the trade war is expected to promote the recovery of silver's industrial demand. [5] 3.1.4. Capital Flow - Recently, the CFTC managed funds have continuously reduced their net long positions in gold and continuously increased their net long positions in silver. In the domestic market, the net long positions in Shanghai gold have continuously increased, and the net long positions in Shanghai silver have remained at a high level. The world's largest gold ETF and silver ETF have ended their long - term downward trends and are slowly increasing their positions. [7] 3.2. Review of the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Path from 2024 - 2025 - In 2024/5/1, the Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate unchanged, slowed down the pace of reducing the balance sheet from June 1st, and still expected inflation to decline gradually over time. [13] - In 2024/6/12, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate policy unchanged, and the updated dot - plot significantly reduced the expected number of interest rate cuts for the year. [13] - In 2024/7/31, the Federal Reserve continued to keep the interest rate unchanged, confirmed progress in reducing inflation, and indicated that an interest rate cut might be an option in September. [13] - In 2024/9/19, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and the target range of the benchmark interest rate was expected to be further reduced by the end of the year and in subsequent years. [14] - In 2024/11/7, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the statement removed the expression about "gaining confidence in the fight against inflation". [14] - In 2024/12/19, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the dot - plot showed that it was expected to cut interest rates only twice by the end of 2025. [14] - In 2025/1/29, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged for the first time since September 2024, and the policy statement removed the expression about "inflation making progress towards the target". [14] - In 2025/3/20, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged, planned to slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction from April 1st, and significantly lowered the economic growth forecast for 2025 while raising the inflation forecast. [14] - In 2025/5/7, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged, stating that the uncertainty of the economic outlook had further increased, and the risks of rising unemployment and inflation had both increased. [14] 3.3. Support and Resistance Levels - The support level for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 755 - 760, and the resistance level is 790 - 800. [9] - The support level for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8400 - 8430, and the resistance level is 9500 - 9530. [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance of gold as a hard currency, its historical context, investment methods, and associated risks, emphasizing its enduring value and various applications in modern finance and industry [1][2][3][4][5][6] Group 1: Gold as Hard Currency - Gold's value is attributed to its scarcity, with approximately 200,000 tons mined throughout human history, equating to less than 30 grams per person if divided among 8 billion people [2] - Gold possesses three main attributes: 1. Currency attribute, being one of the earliest forms of money and used extensively in trade and rewards throughout history [3] 2. Commodity attribute, characterized by its resistance to corrosion and diverse applications in various industries beyond jewelry [3] 3. Safe-haven attribute, where gold prices often surge during economic crises or loss of trust in major currencies [3] Group 2: Investment Methods - Gold investment options include: 1. Physical gold, such as gold bars, coins, and jewelry, with investment-grade gold priced lower than jewelry due to craftsmanship premiums [4] 2. Gold accumulation accounts offered by financial institutions, allowing clients to invest without holding physical gold, with low transaction costs [4] 3. Gold ETFs, which provide high liquidity but do not allow for physical gold redemption and incur management fees [4] Group 3: "Gold+" Concept - The "Gold+" concept integrates a certain percentage of gold into investment portfolios, gaining traction among institutional investors and financial products [5] Group 4: Investment Risks - Gold investment carries several risks: 1. Market price volatility influenced by global economic conditions, monetary policies, and geopolitical tensions [6] 2. Purchase channel risks, particularly when buying from unverified sources, increasing the likelihood of acquiring counterfeit or subpar gold [6] 3. Repurchase and liquidity risks, as the avenues for selling physical gold are limited and may involve significant price discrepancies [6]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年05月14日16时30分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属金弱银强，沪金主力收跌0.11%，沪银主力收涨0.16%。①核心逻辑，短期特朗普贸易战风险阶段兑现，贸易协议分批 达成；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储对降息维持谨慎态度。②避险属性方面，特朗普对等关税兑现，美国和中国宣布达成降低关 税的临时协议，避险情绪逐渐升温。巴基斯坦与印度发生交火，特朗普考虑亲自现身土耳其俄乌会谈，地缘异动变数仍在。③货币 属性方面，美国4月消费者物价温和上涨，创四年来最小年涨幅，因食品成本的下降部分抵消了租金的上涨，但在关税背景下，通 胀前景仍不明朗。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间跌至50基点左右。美元指数和美债收益率震荡上行； ④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡反弹，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期继续金弱银强，中期偏弱震荡，长期阶梯 上行。 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价 ...