Group 1 - Silver prices have surged to record highs since 2025, driven by a combination of industrial and financial demand [1][14] - The price of silver is more volatile than gold, influenced by its stronger commodity attributes and lower market capitalization [5][8] - Historical price surges of silver have occurred in four distinct phases over the past 50 years, with the latest phase beginning in 2024 due to geopolitical risks and monetary system instability [11][12] Group 2 - Industrial demand is the core driver of silver prices, accounting for 58.5% of total demand in 2024, with significant growth in sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles [18][20] - The supply of silver is relatively inelastic, with approximately 30% coming from independent silver mines and over 70% as a byproduct of mining other metals [14][20] - The financial attributes of silver amplify price volatility, particularly during periods of high liquidity and speculative trading [22][24] Group 3 - The silver market is expected to remain supported in the medium to long term due to structural demand from emerging industries [28] - The relationship between gold and silver prices is closely correlated, with silver often experiencing a "catch-up" rally following gold price increases [30][33] - Recent regulatory changes may elevate silver's status as a strategic asset, potentially increasing its demand in various economies [28][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of global geopolitical games, the strategic value of key mineral resources is continuously highlighted, and the pricing logic of related varieties has shifted from simple supply - demand to "resource security + commodity attribute" driven. The market's expectation of a loose monetary policy in major economies is rising, but the short - term market of strongly financial - attribute varieties is still volatile. China's industrial economy has entered a new stage of bottom - building and recovery, and industrial enterprise profits are expected to turn to moderate growth in 2026 [2]. - The "exchange rate inquiry" by the New York Fed may be an important signal of US - Japan joint intervention. The US dollar index is under pressure, and the RMB is expected to appreciate against the US dollar due to factors such as seasonal settlement demand and market expectations [4]. - The spring rally in the stock index market is expected to last until February, with small - and medium - cap indexes likely to continue to be strong, while large - cap indexes are relatively weak [8]. - In the bond market, it is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [9]. - In the container shipping market, the near - term contracts are under pressure, while the far - term contracts may be driven up by factors such as trade improvement and geopolitical risks [10][12]. - For new energy commodities, lithium carbonate prices may strengthen in the short term, and industrial silicon prices are likely to rise in the short term, while polysilicon is still in the process of destocking [14][15][17]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper prices are affected by market sentiment, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, zinc has strong upward pressure, nickel - stainless steel is in a correction, tin prices are affected by news, and lead is in a narrow - range and weak oscillation [20][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29]. - In the oil and fat market, oilseeds follow the rebound, and oils are expected to be strong in the short term, with palm oil being the strongest [30][33]. - In the energy and oil and gas market, fuel oil cracking is strong, low - sulfur fuel oil has limited upward momentum, asphalt is affected by geopolitical factors and may correct, and platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - long term [36][38][40][45]. - In the chemical market, pulp prices may decline, PX - TA may have a phased correction, MEG may fluctuate widely, PP and PE are affected by macro - emotions, pure benzene and styrene market sentiment has declined, rubber is in a shock correction, urea is recommended to hold long positions, and glass and soda ash are in a repeated pattern [51][52][53][56][57][59][60][62][63][65][66][67][71][73][75][76]. - In the steel and iron ore market, rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a bottom - range oscillation, iron ore price fluctuations are narrowing, coking coal and coke are testing the lower support, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are oscillating weakly with cost support [77][78][79][80][81][83][84]. - In the agricultural and soft commodities market, live pigs are falling, cotton is recommended to buy on dips, sugar has limited upward potential, eggs are under pressure to fall, apples may be affected by the shortage of delivery products, dates may be in a low - level oscillation, and logs are recommended to wait and see [86][88][90][91][92][99][100][101][102][103]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The Fed Chair nominee may be announced this week. Japan's Prime Minister may resign if the ruling camp fails to win a majority in the House election. China's industrial enterprise profits in 2025 increased by 0.6% year - on - year, and the single - month growth rate in December turned positive [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Concerns about the US government's new shutdown risk. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower in the previous trading day, and the RMB is expected to appreciate against the US dollar [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The spring rally is expected to last until February, with small - and medium - cap indexes likely to be strong, and large - cap indexes relatively weak [8]. - **Treasury Bond**: It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [9]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term price and basis may strengthen due to pre - holiday restocking demand [14][15]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon prices are likely to rise in the short term, and polysilicon is in the process of destocking [16][17][18]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is affected by sentiment, and it is not recommended to open new positions above 100,000 yuan [20][22]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, alumina may oscillate, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [23][24]. - **Zinc**: The upper pressure is large, and it is expected to be weakly volatile [24]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It is in a correction, and the short - term trend is affected by market sentiment [25][26]. - **Tin**: The price is affected by Indonesian news and a new model, and it is expected to be in a high - level wide - range oscillation [27][28]. - **Lead**: It is in a narrow - range and weak oscillation [29]. Oils and Fats - **Oilseeds**: They follow the rebound, but lack their own driving force [30]. - **Oils**: They are expected to be strong in the short term, with palm oil being the strongest [33]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: Cracking is strong, but the fundamental situation is still poor [36][37]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has limited upward momentum, and the supply pressure is increasing [38][39]. - **Asphalt**: It is affected by geopolitical factors and may correct, and it is recommended to focus on the winter - storage situation of refineries [40][41][42]. Precious Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: They are expected to rise in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [45][46]. - **Gold & Silver**: Spot gold is approaching 5,200, and it is recommended to buy on dips [47][49]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp prices may decline, and offset paper may be affected by cost and supply factors [51][52]. - **PTA - PX**: They may have a phased correction, and it is recommended to buy on dips [53][56]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: It may fluctuate widely, and it is not recommended to short in the short term [57][59]. - **PP**: The short - term fundamental pressure is not large, and it is affected by macro - emotions [60][62]. - **PE**: The fundamental situation is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [63][65]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The market sentiment has declined, and it is recommended to focus on export increments and downstream feedback [66]. - **Rubber**: It is in a shock correction, and it is recommended to wait and see or hold light positions [67][71][72]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to hold long positions [73][74]. - **Glass Soda Ash**: They are in a repeated pattern, with soda ash having an over - supply expectation and glass having a weak supply - demand pattern [75][76]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are in a bottom - range oscillation, and the price ranges of rebar and hot - rolled coil are estimated [77][78]. - **Iron Ore**: The price fluctuations are narrowing, and the price has certain support [79][80]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are testing the lower support, and the price may face pressure in the short term [81][83]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are oscillating weakly with cost support [84]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pig**: The price is falling [86]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to buy on dips and focus on downstream orders [88][89]. - **Sugar**: The upward potential is limited [90][91]. - **Egg**: The futures are trading the post - holiday off - season expectation in advance, and the price is under pressure to fall [91][92]. - **Apple**: The spot price is loose, and it is recommended to focus on the shortage of delivery products [99][100]. - **Date**: It may be in a low - level oscillation, and it is recommended to focus on downstream procurement [101]. - **Log**: The volatility has returned to a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [102][103].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月27日16时58分 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收涨1.52%，沪银主力收涨7.25%，铂金主力收跌4.61%，钯金主力收涨跌2.087%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战与地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期存在支撑。②避险属性方面，美航母打击群向中东 集结，伊朗扬言任何对伊攻击将被视为全面开战。特朗普表示，将对把部分韩国输美商品关税从15%上调至25%，贸易战与地缘异 动风险上升。③货币属性方面，美国11月核心资本财订单连续第五个月增长，提振经济前景。美国12月CPI涨幅符合预期，但家庭 食品与房租支出增加。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策 已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在95%附近，下次降息或到6月。美元指 数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，波兰央行表示，已批准一项购买多达150吨黄金的计划。白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂 金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a volatile and upward - trending pattern. Shanghai Gold's main contract rose 1.54%, Shanghai Silver's main contract rose 2.75%, Platinum's main contract fell 0.48%, and Palladium's main contract rose 0.64% [1]. - In the short - term, trade - war - related safe - haven demand has subsided, while geopolitical risks have increased. The weakening US employment and moderate inflation still support expectations of interest - rate cuts [1]. - Trump's threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries controlling Greenland has led to considerations of retaliation by EU countries, increasing geopolitical risks [1]. - The US CPI increase in December met expectations, but household food and rent expenditures increased. US employment growth almost stalled in December, and the unemployment rate decline alleviated concerns about the deterioration of the labor market. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly decreased, and the labor market is in a stagnant state. The Fed cut interest rates in December with significant differences, hinting at a pause in action and only one potential rate cut next year. Powell stated that the Fed's interest - rate policy is in a good position to handle future economic trends. Currently, the market expects the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in January 2026 to remain around 95%, and the next rate cut may occur in June. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly [1]. - Silver is supported by tight supply. The demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen - energy industry is expected to be strong. Palladium still has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will show a volatile and upward - trending pattern in the short - term, high - level oscillations in the medium - term, and a step - by - step upward trend in the long - term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - Price: Comex gold active contract closed at $4,601.10 per ounce, down $19.40 (- 0.42%) from the previous day and up $82.70 (1.83%) from the previous week. London gold was at $4,611.05 per ounce, up $0.20 (0.00%) from the previous day and up $117.20 (2.61%) from the previous week. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 1,051.80 yuan per gram, up 19.48 yuan (1.89%) from the previous day and up 25.52 yuan (2.49%) from the previous week [2]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 12,292 lots. SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.15 tons (- 0.33%) [2]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Price: Comex silver active contract closed at $89.95 per ounce, down $2.27 (- 2.46%) from the previous day and up $10.16 (12.73%) from the previous week. London silver was at $90.80 per ounce, down $0.47 (- 0.51%) from the previous day and up $12.66 (16.20%) from the previous week. Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 23,189 yuan per kilogram, up 706 yuan (3.14%) from the previous day and up 2,244 yuan (10.71%) from the previous week [4]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds decreased by 2,613 lots. iShare silver ETF holdings decreased by 274.89 tons (- 1.68%) [4]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - Price: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2,272.90 per ounce, down $47.20 (- 2.03%) from the previous day and up $341.40 (17.68%) from the previous week. London platinum was at $2,208 per ounce, unchanged from the previous day and up $302 (15.84%) from the previous week. Platinum's main contract on the GZEX closed at 686.95 yuan per gram, up 29.30 yuan (4.46%) from the previous day and up 144.35 yuan (26.60%) from the previous week [7]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds remained unchanged [7]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [10]. - Price: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1,821 per ounce, down $143 (- 7.28%) from the previous day and up $96 (5.57%) from the previous week. London palladium was at $1,837 per ounce, up $194 (10.56%) from the previous day and up $194 (11.81%) from the previous week. Palladium's main contract on the GZEX closed at 529.05 yuan per gram, down 49.40 yuan (- 8.54%) from the previous day and up 52.45 yuan (11.01%) from the previous week [10]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds remained unchanged [10]. Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Federal funds target rate upper limit is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points; discount rate is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points; reserve balance rate (IORB) is 3.65%, down 0.25 percentage points [11]. - The Fed's total assets are 6,632.72 billion US dollars, up 8.162 billion US dollars (0.00%) [11]. - The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.50%, up 0.03 (1.21%) [11]. - The US dollar index is 99.37, up 0.02 (0.02%) [11]. - Other economic data such as inflation, employment, real estate, consumption, and trade are also presented in detail in the report [11][13].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged to historical highs, surpassing $90 per ounce, with the gold-silver ratio dropping to its lowest level in 13 years at 50.57, indicating that silver is currently the most expensive relative to gold in over a decade [1][2] Group 1: Price Movements and Historical Context - Since early 2025, gold and silver have increased by 75% and 190% respectively, with silver's growth being 2.5 times that of gold [1] - The gold-silver ratio has sharply declined from a peak of 105 in 2025 to around 50, suggesting a significant shift in market dynamics [1] - Historical patterns indicate that silver's rapid price increase often signals the peak of a precious metals bull market, but this time the correlation with PMI recovery has been disrupted [2][10] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Dynamics - Traditionally, the gold-silver ratio's recovery has been linked to improvements in the U.S. PMI, but this relationship has weakened as the U.S. manufacturing sector's global influence diminishes [3][2] - The current economic environment shows a disconnect between the gold-silver ratio and PMI, with the latter remaining below the growth threshold for ten consecutive months [2][3] Group 3: Industrial Demand and Strategic Importance - Silver's role in industrial applications is becoming increasingly critical, particularly in green energy and digital transformation, due to its superior conductivity and thermal properties [4][9] - The demand for silver in photovoltaic applications has surged, with a projected increase in global silver demand driven by the solar industry [9][4] Group 4: Supply Chain and Inventory Dynamics - The global silver inventory has been significantly impacted by tariff expectations, leading to a dramatic shift in silver stockpiles between regions [6][8] - The supply of silver has become more rigid since 2015, with annual global silver supply remaining stable between 30,000 to 33,000 tons [7][8] Group 5: Future Outlook and Market Predictions - Analysts predict that silver prices may stabilize between $80 and $100 per ounce, with the potential for rapid fluctuations due to market dynamics [11][12] - The current market conditions are reminiscent of the 1970s, characterized by stagflation and a potential crisis in dollar credibility, which could further support precious metals [12][13][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term safe - haven situation shows that trade - war related safe - haven demand has subsided, while geopolitical risks have increased. The weakening US employment and moderate inflation still support the expectation of interest rate cuts. - Geopolitical risks have risen with the Trump administration discussing the acquisition of Greenland and the US arresting Maduro. - Although the US economic growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations, consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level since April. The US November core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The November employment rebounded more than expected, but the unemployment rate rose to a four - year high. The Fed cut interest rates in December with differences, hinting at a pause and only one possible rate cut next year. The market expects an 80% probability that the Fed will not cut rates in January 2026, and the next possible rate cut may be in April. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly. - Silver is supported by tight supply. The expected demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is strong. Palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. - It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating strongly in the short term, oscillating at a high level in the medium term, and rising step - by - step in the long term. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: Comex gold active contract closed at $4505.70 per ounce, up 1.03% from the previous day and 3.57% from last week; London gold closed at $4490.35 per ounce, up 0.76% from the previous day and 3.53% from last week; Shanghai gold futures main contract closed at 998.90 yuan per gram, down 0.60% from the previous day and 0.82% from last week; Gold T + D closed at 1001.92 yuan per gram, unchanged from the previous day and down 0.30% from last week. - Other data: The long - short positions of the top 10 futures company members in SHFE's gold futures are presented in detail, including net long and net short positions and their changes. [2][3] 2. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: Comex silver active contract closed at $81.22 per ounce, up 6.16% from the previous day and 13.37% from last week; London silver closed at $78.48 per ounce, up 4.54% from the previous day and 5.15% from last week; Shanghai silver futures main contract closed at 19290 yuan per kilogram, down 0.83% from the previous day and up 5.98% from last week; Silver T + D closed at 19495 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day and up 3.71% from last week. - Other data: The long - short positions of the top 10 futures company members in SHFE's silver futures are shown, including net long and net short positions and their changes. [4][5] 3. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2272.90 per ounce, down 2.03% from the previous day and up 17.68% from last week; London platinum closed at $2208 per ounce, unchanged from the previous day and up 15.84% from last week; Platinum futures main contract in GZFE closed at 686.95 yuan per gram, up 4.46% from the previous day and 26.60% from last week; Platinum in SGE closed at 591.25 yuan per gram, down 2.59% from the previous day and 15.56% from last week. - Other data: The long - short positions of the top 10 futures company members in GZFE's platinum futures are provided, including net long and net short positions and their changes. [6][7][9] 4. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1821 per ounce, down 7.28% from the previous day and up 5.57% from last week; London palladium closed at $1837 per ounce, up 10.56% from the previous day and 11.81% from last week; Palladium futures main contract in GZFE closed at 529.05 yuan per gram, down 8.54% from the previous day and up 11.01% from last week. [10] 5. Key Data on Precious Metals Fundamentals - Fed - related data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 3.75%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, and the Fed's total assets are $66908.33 billion. - Key indicators: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.54%, the US dollar index is 98.60, and various bond spreads and interest rate differentials are presented. - US inflation data: The CPI year - on - year is 2.70%, the core CPI year - on - year is 2.60%, etc. - US economic growth data: The GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 2.30%, and the annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is 4.30%. - Other data: Unemployment rate, employment data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, economic survey data, central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, and offshore RMB exchange rate are all provided. Also, the Fed's latest interest rate expectations are presented. [11][13][14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant positive performance in the non-ferrous metal sector, with companies like Anning Co., Xiyue Co. reaching their daily limit up, and others such as Huayou Cobalt, Hunan Silver, and China Aluminum also experiencing gains [1] - The non-ferrous mining ETF (159690) saw a 4.33% increase, with over 29 million yuan in trading volume and a net inflow of 33 million yuan over the past seven trading days [1] - According to CITIC Securities, industrial metal prices are influenced by both financial and commodity attributes, with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle and global copper and aluminum inventories at relatively low levels, indicating a potential recovery in demand driven by China's economic rebound and the new energy sector [1][20] Group 2 - The non-ferrous mining index has shown a historical performance with a total increase of 104.84% in 2025, compared to a 94.73% increase in the non-ferrous metal industry index, indicating a sharper rise relative to similar indices [1] - The non-ferrous mining index focuses on the upstream mining segment of the non-ferrous metal industry, with over 57% of its weight concentrated in copper, gold, and aluminum, which are strategically significant for both industrial development and financial markets [6] - The historical performance of the non-ferrous mining index over the past decade shows a cumulative increase of 172.62% with an annualized return of 10.87% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.49, indicating higher elasticity compared to similar indices [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The chief analyst of precious metals at Qisheng Futures, Liu Xufeng, believes that the commodity attributes of precious metals are likely to replace their financial and monetary attributes, becoming the main driving force behind price movements [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The widening supply-demand gap for silver may provide price support [1] - A key turning point in the precious metals market could occur around mid-2026 [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Environment - The expected appointment of Kevin Hassett, who is perceived as dovish, to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in May 2026 may accelerate the pace of monetary policy easing [1] - The Federal Reserve has resumed balance sheet expansion in response to economic downturn pressures and the longest government shutdown in history, but there are potential risks of marginal tightening in liquidity [1]

白银供应短缺或延续 在"期货大家谈——2025期货业盘点"系列访谈第七期中，齐盛期货贵金属首席分析师刘旭峰就2026年贵金属市场走势进行了深 度解读。他认为，贵金属的商品属性有望取代金融与货币属性，成为驱动价格的主导力量，白银供需缺口的扩大或对价格形成 支撑，结合海外宏观环境变化，投资者需重点关注流动性风险。 多重风险交织 刘旭峰表示，美元信用体系的长期影响力呈现弱化趋势，全球央行持续的购金行为是非美国家货币实力增强的体现，也反映了 对美元资产的分散化需求。值得注意的是，2025年中国央行购金力度已有所放缓，2026年是否暂停增持有待关注。 "尽管中长期宏观环境对贵金属价格构成一定支撑，但多重风险点不容忽视。"刘旭峰认为，重点应防范流动性风险，2020年3月 的市场波动表明，在极端流动性紧缩的情况下，黄金、白银等资产亦难以独善其身。此外，通胀反弹、经济实现软着陆及美联 储货币政策边际收紧的可能性，均可能扭转当前的市场预期。 刘旭峰建议，投资者策略上应关注向上的机会，在把握结构性行情的同时，对短线极端波动保持警惕。若海外经济在降息周期 中企稳反弹，则需重新评估中长期看多白银的逻辑基础。 刘旭峰表示，2021年— ...

Group 1 - The A-share non-ferrous metal sector showed strong performance on December 22, with silver reaching its daily limit, and companies like Zhongtung High-tech and Yunnan Zinc Industry seeing significant gains [1] - The mining ETF (159690) increased by 2.73%, indicating positive market sentiment in the sector [1] Group 2 - On December 22, spot gold prices surpassed $4,400 per ounce for the first time, marking a year-to-date increase of over 67%, while New York futures rose over 1% to $4,432 per ounce [3] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to expectations of interest rate cuts following a drop in unemployment and lower CPI, alongside the conclusion of the Bank of Japan's rate hike [3] - Industrial metal prices are also performing well, with copper, aluminum, and lead prices increasing by 2.8%, 2.4%, and 0.9% respectively [3] Group 3 - Citic Securities noted that the prices of industrial metals are influenced by both financial and commodity attributes, with the Fed entering a rate-cutting cycle and global copper and aluminum inventories at relatively low levels [4] - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to improve due to China's economic recovery and the growth of the renewable energy sector [4] - The mining ETF (159690) tracks a diversified index covering various metal sectors, which helps mitigate price volatility risks associated with individual commodities [4]