Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of treasury bond futures is to oscillate. In the short - term, they will mainly oscillate and consolidate, and attention should be paid to the financial policy guidance of the Lujiazui Forum on June 18th [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is oscillation - biased - strong, and the overall view is oscillation, with the core logic being the weakening of macro - economic indicators [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is oscillation - biased - strong, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures continued narrow - range oscillation and consolidation yesterday. The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, UK, and the consultation result is highly uncertain. Due to the deepening of the uncertainty of tariff prospects and the marginal weakening of domestic macro - economic indicators, the main tone of moderately loose monetary policy remains unchanged. The market's expectation of future easing policies will rise, providing strong support at the bottom of treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the effect of monetary tools may be less than that of fiscal tools, so the possibility of boosting demand through continuous interest rate cuts in the short term is not high [5].

Group 1 - The report highlights a positive outlook for the consumption service industry, technology, and cyclical leaders, driven by macroeconomic expectations and microeconomic improvements. Key indicators show a slight recovery in manufacturing PMI and industrial output growth, suggesting potential for cost reductions in midstream manufacturing leaders and value in undervalued sectors like petrochemicals and new consumption [9][10][11] - In the domestic equity market, growth stocks outperformed financials, cyclicals, and consumer sectors, with an average daily trading volume of 1.1857 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity and risk appetite [12][20] - The report notes that 25 out of 31 sectors in the Shenwan classification saw gains, with telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and electronics leading the way, while household appliances and food and beverage sectors experienced declines [20][23] Group 2 - The report discusses the liquidity management strategy of the central bank, which is focused on maintaining stability by "shortening and lengthening" liquidity provisions. This includes net withdrawals through OMO and reverse repos, indicating a balanced approach to short and long-term liquidity [10][21][22] - It mentions that the yields on government bonds have slightly decreased due to ample liquidity, with 1-year and 10-year government bond yields at 1.41% and 1.65%, respectively, reflecting a stable interest rate environment [12][25] - The report also highlights the fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, which are influenced by contrasting employment data, with 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.04% and 4.51%, respectively, indicating market sensitivity to economic indicators [28][29] Group 3 - The report provides insights into the performance of major commodities, noting that crude oil, gold, copper, and aluminum prices have increased, driven by easing trade relations and OPEC+ production adjustments [12][13][32] - It highlights the significant rebound in crude oil prices, which reached $64.58 per barrel, and the increase in U.S. crude oil production to 13.41 million barrels per day, reflecting a robust energy sector [32][39] - The report also discusses the dynamics of the gold market, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for seven consecutive months, impacting gold prices amid expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts [12][13][32]

Global Market Overview - Global stock markets rose overall, with Hong Kong and US stocks leading the gains[1] - Major commodities such as crude oil, gold, copper, and aluminum also saw price increases[1] - The US dollar index fell slightly, while the offshore RMB and euro appreciated, and the yen depreciated[1] Domestic Equity Market - As of June 6, the average daily trading volume in the domestic equity market was 11,857 billion RMB, up from 10,699 billion RMB[2] - Among the 31 sectors tracked, 25 sectors rose, with telecommunications (+5.27%), non-ferrous metals (+3.74%), and electronics (+3.60%) leading the gains[2] - Conversely, household appliances (-1.79%), food and beverage (-1.06%), and transportation (-0.54%) saw declines[2] Interest Rates and Currency Exchange - The People's Bank of China adopted a "short-term collection and long-term release" liquidity management strategy, leading to a decrease in short-term liquidity demand[2] - The 1Y government bond yield fell by 4.5 basis points to 1.41%, while the 10Y yield decreased by 1.65 basis points to 1.6547%[1] - The offshore RMB appreciated by 0.25% against the US dollar, closing at 7.1885[2] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for April was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points month-on-month, but rose by 0.5 percentage points in May[2] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 6.1% year-on-year, while the profits of industrial enterprises increased by 3.0% year-on-year in April[2] - The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell from 49.8 in April to 49.6 in May, indicating a contraction in manufacturing output globally[2] Commodity Trends - Crude oil prices rebounded significantly due to easing trade relations and OPEC+ moderate production increases[1] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars increased by 14.63% month-on-month to 62,300 units[1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 15.2% week-on-week, indicating improved shipping demand[1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 6 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 关税风险上升，宏观数据走弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理，全天冲高回落。当前关税前景不确定性扰动加深，国内宏观经 济指标边际走弱，货 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 6 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均延续小幅反弹的走势。最新公布的财新 5 月制造业 PMI 数据大幅下行，说 明 5 月抢出口效应走弱，未来出口订单面临较大压力。叠加特朗普 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2509 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", due to rising tariff risks and weakening macro - data [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". In the short term, the upward and downward space of bond futures is limited, and they will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For the variety TL2509, the short - term and medium - term trends are "oscillation", the intraday trend is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with a general view of "oscillation". The core logic is the rising tariff risk and weakening macro - data [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the medium - term view is "oscillation", with a reference view of "oscillation". The core logic includes: the bond futures continued narrow - range oscillation and consolidation; the latest Caixin Manufacturing PMI dropped significantly, indicating a weakened export rush effect in May and great pressure on future export orders; in June, macro - policies are expected to focus on stabilizing growth and adjusting the structure, and the weakening of macro - economic indicators supports bond futures prices; attention can be paid to the financial policies at the Lujiazui Forum on June 18; the uncertainty of the tariff outlook has deepened, the main tone of moderately loose monetary policy remains unchanged, and the market's expectation of future loose policies will rise, so bond futures have strong bottom support [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of treasury bond futures is to fluctuate within a range. After the central bank's interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut, it is necessary to wait for data to verify the effect, and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short term is low. The upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient, but due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space of treasury bond yields is limited, so is the downward space of treasury bond futures. Overall, the upward and downward spaces of treasury bond futures are limited in the short term, mainly in a consolidation phase. [4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2506 variety, the short - term view is "fluctuation", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", and the reference view is "range - bound fluctuation". The core logic is that after the interest rate cut expectation is fulfilled, it is mainly in a short - term consolidation phase. [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, TS, the intraday view is "fluctuation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "fluctuation", and the reference view is "range - bound fluctuation". The core logic is that after the central bank's interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut, it is necessary to wait for data to verify the effect, and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short term is low, so the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. However, due to the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the upward space of treasury bond yields is limited, and the downward space of treasury bond futures is also limited. In the short term, the upward and downward spaces of treasury bond futures are limited, mainly in a consolidation phase. Follow - up attention should be paid to external factors such as tariffs and the Fed, as well as domestic macro - economic indicators. [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2506 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with the overall view being "range - bound oscillation" due to the fulfillment of interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "range - bound oscillation". In the short term, the upside and downside space for bond futures is limited, and they are expected to remain range - bound [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For TL2506, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively. The core logic is that the interest - rate cut expectation has been fulfilled, and it is in short - term range - bound consolidation [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The intraday view for TL, T, TF, TS is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "range - bound oscillation". The core logic is that in the long - term, due to large external uncertainties, the central bank needs to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, providing a solid policy basis for the upward movement of bonds. Currently, the implied interest - rate cut expectation in bond futures prices is low, indicating strong bottom support. However, after the release of the China - US economic and trade talks joint statement, the short - term risk of the tariff war has eased, the Fed's hawkish stance has put pressure on the exchange - rate spread, and the central bank's recent interest - rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts require further observation of macroeconomic indicators to determine the pace and intensity of monetary easing, resulting in limited upward momentum for bond futures [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view for the financial futures stock index sector is that the index futures are expected to operate with a bias towards strength in an oscillatory manner. The short - term view for IH2506 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory with a bias towards strength, with an overall view of range - bound oscillation. For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is oscillatory with a bias towards strength, and the medium - term view is oscillatory [1][4]. - The core logic is that the 4 - month manufacturing PMI released last Wednesday was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that external demand decline has disturbed the macro - economy. The policy expectation is expected to heat up after the May Day holiday, and the market's cautious sentiment will fade, with trading volume in the stock market expected to pick up. It is expected that the index futures will break through the gap in early April and continue to rebound [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory with a bias towards strength, and the overall view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is the co - existence of positive policy expectations and external uncertainties [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillatory with a bias towards strength, and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with an overall view of range - bound oscillation. The 4 - month manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating external demand decline disturbing the macro - economy. Policy expectation is expected to heat up after the May Day holiday, and market sentiment is expected to recover, with index futures expected to operate with a bias towards strength in an oscillatory manner [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term views of IH2506 are both "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with an overall view of "range oscillation" due to the coexistence of positive policy expectations and external uncertainties [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall view is "range oscillation". The stock index is in an oscillatory consolidation phase before the holiday because of the coexistence of multiple long and short factors [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term is "oscillation", the medium - term is "oscillation", the intraday is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the view is "range oscillation". The core logic is the coexistence of positive policy expectations and external uncertainties [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, each stock index continued its narrow - range oscillatory consolidation. The stock market trading volume was 1.0417 trillion yuan, a decrease of 35 billion yuan from the previous day [5]. - The Politburo meeting in April sent a signal of stabilizing expectations and confidence to the market, but there is no signal of concentrated policy intensification yet. Policy expectations will rise if economic data weakens [5]. - As the impact of the external tariff war weakens marginally and domestic policies are still in the observation period, the driving force of the stock index has weakened, leading to an oscillatory consolidation [5]. - The stock market trading volume has been stable at around 1 trillion yuan recently, indicating that investors' wait - and - see sentiment has increased and their willingness to chase the rise is not strong [5]. - The stock index has rebounded to the gap position in early April and faces technical selling pressure if it continues to rise. Also, investors are cautious due to the uncertainties during the May Day holiday [5].