Core Viewpoint - The market dynamics of DCE soybean meal, live pigs, and US soybean prices are influenced by supply and demand patterns, leading to price fluctuations [1] Group 1: DCE Soybean Meal and Live Pig Contracts - DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 decreased by 0.03%, closing at 3023 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton [1] - DCE live pig main contract 2509 fell by 55 CNY/ton, closing at 13885 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.39% [1] - The average price of external three-way live pigs nationwide is 13.88 CNY/kg, stable compared to the previous day [1] Group 2: US Soybean Market - CBOT US soybean main contract increased by 0.66%, closing at 995 cents/bushel [1] - The rebound in US soybean futures prices is driven by short covering and cross-market arbitrage [1] - The USDA report indicates that as of August 3, the good-to-excellent rate for US soybeans is 69%, slightly below the previous week’s 70% but above last year's 68% [1] Group 3: Brazilian Soybean Production - Brazil is expected to have a bumper soybean harvest, with farmers' export profits encouraging new planting intentions [1] - Consulting agencies predict that the soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/26 season will increase by 962,000 hectares to 48.6 million hectares [1] - Brazil has raised biofuel blending standards, increasing the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and biodiesel in diesel from 14% to 15% [1] Group 4: Domestic Market Dynamics - Domestic soybean meal M09 maintains a strong trend, with attention on the 3100 CNY level [1] - The main funds are shifting focus to M01 contract, with a temporary resistance level at 3120 CNY due to rising import costs from increased Brazilian price differentials [1] - Despite rising soybean meal spot prices, high oil mill inventories and widespread pressure from traders keep the spot basis low, leading to a subdued market [1] Group 5: Live Pig Supply and Demand - The supply side of live pigs may see a reduction at the beginning of the month, followed by a recovery due to potential weight reduction in slaughtering [1] - A recent meeting on July 23 emphasized implementing capacity control measures, including culling breeding sows and reducing stock [1] - On the demand side, pig supply is sufficient, with some regions experiencing a slight demand recovery, although high temperatures limit pork purchasing willingness [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no mention of the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The rate of inventory accumulation of pure benzene at ports has slowed down, but the high - inventory pressure persists. The support from oil products for aromatics is limited, and the BZN processing fee has rebounded and then declined. Chinese pure benzene processing fee has rebounded due to short - term downstream demand resilience, but the sustainability of high styrene开工 is questionable [3]. - Styrene port inventory has risen rapidly. In July, China's EB maintained high operation, and overseas styrene operation also increased. The export window closed, leading to a rapid decline in styrene basis and production profit. The low operation of PS and ABS has dragged down styrene demand [4]. - For pure benzene, new domestic production capacity is being released intensively, and the inventory problem persists. The basis of port spot for the 2603 contract remains weak. For styrene, it is necessary to wait for further compression of production profit and reduction of production for re - balancing [3][5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Pure Benzene Fundamental Situation - In 2025, there are multiple pure benzene production capacity plans, with a planned production capacity of 105 million tons/year to be put into operation in the third quarter, with a production growth rate of about 4.1%. The new production capacity of Yulong will impact the Shandong region [14][15]. Pure Benzene Supply and Inventory - The basis of pure benzene spot to the BZ2603 futures contract and the basis of spot to the second - month paper cargo both reflect high inventory pressure. Overseas, the support from oil products for aromatics is limited, and the BZN processing fee has rebounded and then declined. Overseas styrene operation recovery has boosted overseas pure benzene demand, and the pressure of pure benzene arriving at Chinese ports has not further increased, but the volume from South Korea to China continues [23]. Chinese Pure Benzene Downstream Demand - The high operation of styrene has boosted pure benzene demand, but the sustainability of high styrene operation is questionable. The operation of CPL has peaked, and the operation of its downstream nylon filament is still low. The operation of phenol - acetone has declined, while the operation of aniline has rebounded at the bottom [3][31][35]. Chinese Styrene Fundamental Situation EB Domestic New Production Capacity - In 2025, there are new styrene production capacity plans, including Yulong Refining and Chemical Phase I, Shandong Zhongtai Chemical (Jingbo), Jilin Petrochemical, and Guangxi Petrochemical. Jingbo has carried out trial production [40]. Chinese EB Weekly Operation and Monthly Maintenance Forecast - In July, Chinese styrene maintenance was limited, and high operation continued. There is a maintenance plan for Zhenhai Lyondell in mid - September [48]. EB Basis, Production Profit, Operation Rate, and Inventory - The basis of EB spot to the 09 - month contract has declined significantly. In July, high operation at home and abroad led to a closed export window, rapid increase in port and factory inventory, and a rapid decline in basis and production profit [58]. Overseas Styrene Operation and Cross - Border Price Difference - In July, overseas styrene maintenance recovered, driving up overseas pure benzene demand and reducing the volume of pure benzene from South Korea to China. However, the increase in overseas styrene supply has led to a decline in China's export demand and a rapid weakening of the regional price difference [64][65]. Chinese Styrene Downstream Situation Styrene Downstream Operation Rate - The operation rates of PS and ABS are still low, dragging down styrene demand. The operation of EPS has no bright spots compared with the same period [89]. Styrene Downstream Inventory and Production Profit - The inventory pressure of PS has eased, but the inventory pressure of ABS still exists. The inventory pressure of EPS has increased. Attention should be paid to the performance of downstream industries during the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures fluctuated downward this week, reaching a low of 19,800 yuan/ton. The traditional off - season characteristics of the market are becoming more obvious, with downstream enterprises on high - temperature holidays, which drags down the orders of recycled aluminum. Although some small and medium - sized enterprises have reduced or stopped production, large factories maintain stable production. The cost support logic still exists, and it is expected that the price of cast aluminum alloy will maintain a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term [6]. - As of August 1st, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots (factory + social) increased by 0.32 million tons to 11 million tons compared with the previous week, remaining at a high level. The upstream waste aluminum supply is tight, and the downstream automotive sales in July, as a traditional off - season, face growth pressure [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - end: Waste Aluminum - Waste aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a historically medium - high level. The import of waste aluminum is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in June 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 1.556 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.45% [9][14]. - The refined - scrap price difference shows an oscillatory trend [18]. Supply - end: Recycled Aluminum - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy decreased slightly, and the gap between ADC12 and A00 converged. The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy weakened and showed certain seasonal patterns [26][31]. - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy decreased slightly, while the monthly operating rate increased. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of waste aluminum, and currently, it is estimated to be in an average loss state [36][37]. - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy decreased rapidly, while social inventory continued to accumulate. The import window of cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [42][44]. - For recycled aluminum rods, information on production and inventory is provided. For example, in terms of production, data from different periods are presented, and the inventory situation in factories is also shown with relevant proportion information [47][49]. Demand - end: Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel vehicles has recovered, which has been transmitted to the die - casting consumption. In July 2024 (July 21 - July 27), the total sales volume of domestic passenger cars reached 467,000, a year - on - year increase of 4.71% and a month - on - month increase of 14.74%. However, in July, as a traditional automotive consumption off - season, there is pressure on automotive sales growth [6][55].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the fluctuations in the futures market for coking coal and coke, highlighting a recent increase followed by a pullback in prices due to inventory pressure and policy expectations [1] - There is an ongoing speculation regarding a second round of price increases for coke, indicating potential future price movements in the market [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the need for market participants to closely monitor inventory levels and policy developments, as these factors are critical in shaping future price trends [1] - The discussion suggests that the market is currently in a phase of adjustment, with traders weighing the implications of supply and demand dynamics [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the supply - demand weakness of LLDPE persists, and L2509 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. The daily K - line should pay attention to the support around 7160 and the pressure around 7290 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract is 7214 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the 1 - month contract is 7225 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the 5 - month contract is 7200 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the 9 - month contract is 7214 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The trading volume is 204,281 lots, down 103,204 lots, and the open interest is 436,856 lots, up 2,991 lots. The spread between the 1 - month and 5 - month contracts is 25 yuan, unchanged. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 358,600 lots, up 515 lots; the short position is 402,176 lots, down 5,715 lots; the net long position is - 43,576 lots, up 6,230 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7206.09 yuan/ton, down 23.91 yuan; in East China is 7319.02 yuan/ton, down 13.17 yuan. The basis is - 7.91 yuan, down 16.91 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 62.88 US dollars/barrel, down 1.48 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 583.75 US dollars/ton, down 13.25 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia is 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate is 77.79%, down 1.67 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging film is 48.07%, down 0.37 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes is 28%, unchanged; the operating rate of PE agricultural film is 12.63%, up 0.54 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 11.71%, down 1.17 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 12.54%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 12.01%, down 1 percentage point; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 12.02%, down 0.98 percentage points [2] Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, China's polyethylene output was 605,900 tons, a 2.10% decrease from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 77.79%, a 1.67 - percentage - point decrease. The average operating rate of polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.18% from the previous period. As of July 16th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 529,300 tons, a 7.34% increase; as of July 11th, the social sample warehouse inventory was 536,600 tons, a 3.68% increase [2] Outlook - In July, there are many PE maintenance devices. This week, the devices of Sinopec Hubei and Jilin Petrochemical are shut down for maintenance, and the device of Shanghai Petrochemical is planned to restart. It is expected that the output and capacity utilization rate will decline. New devices of ExxonMobil and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical are expected to be put into production this month, which may increase the industry supply pressure in the long - term. The downstream off - season continues, the terminal stocking willingness is low, and the downstream operating rate is expected to maintain a narrow downward trend. Recently, international oil prices have fallen. Overall, the short - term supply - demand weakness of LLDPE continues [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply, and the new - year cotton price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - to - long term, although the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating strongly [2] - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly in a range, and the medium - to - long term view is to sell short on rallies. The import volume in July - August is expected to increase, which will limit the upside space [5] - The short - term macro - favorable factors boost the pulp price, but the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,850 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,286 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF09 + 1436, up 29 from the previous day; the national average price was 15,302 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF09 + 1452, up 32 from the previous day [1] - As of July 13, the budding rate of cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states in the US was 61%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 23%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average; the good - to - excellent rate was 54%, 9 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International: The July USDA supply - demand report raised the global cotton production and ending stocks, with a bearish adjustment direction. The 25/26 global cotton market will be in a loose supply pattern. The USDA raised the new US cotton production, and the new - year US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve significantly [2] - Domestic: The domestic cotton commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, and the short - term expectation of tight supply at the end of the year supports Zhengzhou cotton. However, the domestic cotton planting area is stable with a slight increase, the new cotton is growing well, and the demand in the off - season is weak, so the continuous upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted. In the medium - to - long term, the concentrated listing of new cotton in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Although the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating strongly, the new - year cotton market will be in a pattern of oversupply, and the medium - to - long term cotton price is expected to be under pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,802 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.26%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,060 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR09 + 258, up 15 from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR09 + 103, up 15 from the previous day [2] - As of the second half of June in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 206.198 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.06%; the ATR of cane was 122.19 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 6.14 kg/ton; the cumulative sugar - making ratio was 51.02%, a year - on - year increase of 2.33%; the cumulative ethanol production was 9.425 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.81%; the cumulative sugar production was 12.249 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.25% [3] Market Analysis - International: The current market is optimistic about the supply prospects of major sugar - producing countries in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season. The long - term raw sugar price is under downward pressure, but there is a possibility of a short - term oversold rebound [4] - Domestic: The sales and production progress of domestic sugar in this sugar - crushing season is fast, and the industrial inventory has dropped to a historical low, making the spot price relatively firm. However, the rebound of the import profit after the quota due to the weakening of the external market, and the expected increase in imports in July - August will limit the upside space of Zhengzhou sugar [5] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly in a range. It is recommended to sell high and buy low in the range. The medium - to - long term view is to sell short on rallies, and focus on the arrival rhythm of imported sugar [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract yesterday was 5,262 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Arauco silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP09 + 688, down 18 from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Bratsk) in Shandong was 5,215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP09 - 47, down 18 from the previous day [6] - The spot price of imported wood pulp was generally stable, with some pulp types showing price increases due to sellers' reluctance to sell at low prices. The prices of some softwood pulp grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong, Northeast China, Henan, and Hebei dropped by 10 - 50 yuan/ton; the prices of some hardwood pulp grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Northeast China, Hebei, and Henan increased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton; the supply - demand of imported natural pulp and chemimechanical pulp changed little, and the prices were stable [6] Market Analysis - Supply: The import volume of wood pulp increased year - on - year in the first half of 2025, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in hardwood pulp imports was relatively large. The import volume of wood pulp is expected to decline in the second half of the year, but the port inventory is high, and the supply pressure in the second half of the year still exists, with hardwood pulp being more abundant than softwood pulp [7] - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US has been weak this year, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure is emerging. The domestic demand is weak due to the traditional off - season, the inventory pressure of finished paper is rising, and the paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. The terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the demand can pick up in the fourth quarter [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term macro - favorable factors boost the pulp price, but the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [8]

The Investment Rating of the Reported Industries The report does not provide specific investment ratings for the industries. The Core Views of the Report Nickel - The macro - atmosphere boosts the commodity, but the nickel fundamentals change little. The cost support of refined nickel weakens, and the medium - term supply is loose, restricting the upside space of prices. The short - term nickel price is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - Under the current macro - boost, the trading sentiment improves, but the fundamentals still face pressure. The price negotiation range of nickel - iron moves down, the cost support weakens, the stainless - steel production remains high, and the demand is weak with slow inventory reduction. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [3]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals are under pressure. The recent supply - demand surplus may intensify. Although the macro - atmosphere is strong, the high inventory restricts the price upside. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound, and it is necessary to observe the performance around 65,000 yuan/ton [5]. Copper - Macro factors such as the expected Fed rate cut and the tight supply in non - US regions support the copper price. The short - term price is strong, with the main contract reference range of 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [7]. Zinc - The zinc ore supply is loose, but the demand is weakening. The inventory is at a low level, providing price support. The short - term price rebounds, but the fundamentals remain unchanged. The medium - long - term strategy is to short on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [11]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is suppressed by the off - season. The price is expected to be range - bound and weak, with the main contract reference range of 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [16]. Aluminum - The alumina price is expected to be range - bound and weak, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is supported by the macro - environment and low inventory but restricted by the off - season. It is expected to be range - bound at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 20,000 - 20,800 yuan/ton [19]. Tin - The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound and strong, and the strategy is to short on rallies based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [20]. Summary According to the Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various nickel products show different trends, such as the 0.41% increase in SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price and the 4.16% decrease in the cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel [1]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% month - on - month, while imports increased by 116.90%. The inventories of SHFE, social, and LME all decreased to varying degrees [1]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 20.00% [3]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.36% month - on - month, imports decreased by 12.00%, and exports decreased by 2.56%. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 4.72% week - on - week [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.73%, and the basis increased by 64.71% [5]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In June, lithium carbonate production increased by 8.34% month - on - month, while demand decreased by 0.15%. The total inventory increased by 2.27% [5]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.01%, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper decreased by 17.50% [7]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In June, electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.30% month - on - month. The inventories of SHFE and domestic social increased, while the inventory of domestic mainstream ports decreased [7]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.63%, and the import loss increased [11]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In June, refined zinc production increased by 6.50% month - on - month, and the inventories of China's seven - region social zinc ingot increased by 3.65% week - on - week [11]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in various regions remained unchanged [15]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.66%, and the social inventory increased by 12.62% week - on - week [16]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.24%, and the import loss decreased [19]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In May, alumina production decreased by 0.19%, and the social inventory of China's electrolytic aluminum increased by 2.38% week - on - week [19]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 tin remained unchanged, and the import loss increased by 15.01% [20]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: In May, tin ore imports increased by 36.39%, and the social inventory increased by 2.84% [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6]. - Specific varieties' ratings: steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, silicon manganese, and silicon iron are all rated as "oscillating"; soda ash is rated as "oscillating weakly" [8][9][10][11][12][13][15][16] 2. Report's Core View - Yesterday, the black market weakened. Affected by the news of coal mine restart, coking coal and coke had large declines in the late trading. The overall demand for five major steel products is in a weakening trend in the off - season, and the market is cautious, with the market resuming an oscillating trend. Geopolitical conflicts have less impact, and the trading focus has shifted to the domestic market. Although the blast furnace charge has rebounded from the oversold situation, the demand and inventory of steel are under pressure, so the upward space is limited [1][2][6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Overseas mines' shipping volume decreased month - on - month, while steel mills' hot metal daily output slightly increased. The port inventory decreased slightly. There is an expectation of a small - scale inventory build - up in the future, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to steel mills' profitability and maintenance plans [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Some coal mines in Shanxi have restarted, but the overall coking coal output is still declining. Coke production has dropped from a high level, and there is an expectation of a further decline in coking enterprises' production. Coking coal inventory is still at a high level in recent years, and there is still pressure on coal mines to reduce inventory. Coking coal prices lack a driving force for a trending increase [3]. 3.3 Alloys - For silicon manganese, the lack of arrivals from Gabon in early July supports prices. Although there is an expectation of increased production, factories and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices due to cost inversion, so the short - term market is expected to oscillate. For silicon iron, although individual manufacturers have an expectation of increased production, manufacturers are reluctant to sell, and the short - term market is also expected to oscillate [3]. 3.4 Glass - In the off - season, demand is declining, upstream inventory is accumulating, and the energy cost support is weakening. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, cold - repair, and demand sustainability. The short - term market is expected to oscillate [3][13]. 3.5 Soda Ash - The supply surplus situation remains unchanged. With the resumption of maintenance, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and decline in the long term [3][13][15]. 3.6 Specific Varieties Analysis 3.6.1 Steel - This week, the supply and demand of five major steel products both weakened month - on - month, and the overall inventory increased. However, the inventory of rebar decreased. Driven by a weak fundamental situation and short - term weakening of macro - sentiment, steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - Shipping and arrivals both decreased, and the port inventory decreased slightly. There is an expectation of a small - scale inventory build - up in the future, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Ore prices are expected to oscillate [2][8][9]. 3.6.3 Scrap Steel - The market is pessimistic about off - season demand. The arrival volume has decreased, and the total daily consumption has also declined. The scrap steel price is expected to oscillate [9]. 3.6.4 Coke - The market is stable, but the coking enterprises' inventory needs to be digested, and the demand support is expected to weaken. The upward space for coke prices is limited, and there is a downward pressure in the medium term [10][11]. 3.6.5 Coking Coal - The supply disturbance is difficult to sustain, and there is an expectation of increased production. The downstream demand is declining in the off - season, and the coal mine inventory reduction pressure remains. The coking coal price lacks a driving force for a trending increase, and the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited [3][12]. 3.6.6 Silicon Manganese - There is an expectation of increased production, and the supply - demand is expected to be loose. But due to cost inversion, manufacturers are reluctant to sell, and the short - term market is expected to oscillate [3][15]. 3.6.7 Silicon Iron - Although individual manufacturers have an expectation of increased production, manufacturers are reluctant to sell. The short - term market is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel tenders and production [3][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is expected to have high supply and high demand coexisting. The demand in the third quarter is expected to be better than that in the fourth quarter, and the price is unlikely to rise or fall significantly. The overall price of soybean meal this year is expected to be at a relatively low level with high inventory, and the price fluctuation may show a mild decline or slow increase. The real potential positive driving force may appear from December to January of the next year [19][22][36] - For the demand from October to January of the next year, due to policy uncertainties, enterprises have not made large - scale purchases yet. There are potential risks of tight cargo rights from December to January of the next year, which may push up the price of the M2601 soybean meal futures contract [6][25] Summary by Related Catalogs Broiler Industry Chain Profit - Chicken苗 prices have dropped rapidly, with large - scale enterprise chicken苗 prices falling below 2 yuan per piece at the end of June (about 3 yuan per piece at the end of May). The hatching link still has a small profit, while the slaughter link has a small loss. The deep - processing link of broiler food has the highest profit but poor sales volume. The frozen product sales are poor, and the inventory pressure is high. The 817 broiler breeding profit is not good [2] - Except for pig breeding, the profits of other sectors in the breeding link, such as poultry and aquaculture, are not good [13] Oil Mill Dynamics - Some oil mills have account - inventory situations and start to urge customers to pick up goods. The oil mill operating rate in Shandong is expected to be at a high level by mid - July or the end of July [3] - This year, the overall oil mill crushing profit is okay. Some small - scale crushing plants that were shut down before have resumed production. The sales progress of foreign - funded oil mills is similar to that of the same period last year, while the sales progress of private oil mills is relatively slow [16][29] Soybean Meal Usage and Addition Ratio - Currently, the daily soybean meal usage has increased month - on - month, mainly due to formula adjustment rather than feed sales growth. It is expected that the daily soybean meal usage in July will remain stable compared with June. If the formula remains unchanged in August and September, the usage is expected to continue to increase month - on - month, with the increase mainly coming from the growth of feed sales [4] - The current soybean meal addition ratios are: 6 - 8% in duck feed, 30% in broiler feed, and 8 - 10% in pig feed (this ratio was raised in mid - to late May). Without miscellaneous meal substitution in the short term, this high addition ratio is expected to be maintained until September - October. If wheat is used to replace corn, the impact on soybean meal demand is limited, with only about 1% reduction in usage [4] Inventory and Sales - It is expected that the soybean meal inventory pressure will increase significantly in mid - July. Feed mills, as buyers of the M2507 soybean meal futures contract warehouse receipts, are reluctant to take delivery because current feed enterprises prefer to use 46% protein soybean meal [5] - The sales progress of soybean meal contracts from July to September is about 80%, while the sales progress from October to January of the next year is only about 20% [12] - The soybean meal market currently shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. The sales of oil mills in July have basically been sold out, the sales progress from August to September is about 30%, and the sales progress from October to January of the next year is about 10% [22][32] Procurement - Enterprises generally dare not purchase US soybeans currently but still have time to observe subsequent policy trends. For the demand from October to January of the next year, due to policy uncertainties, enterprises have not made large - scale purchases yet [16][25] - The current purchase progress of Brazilian soybeans for the August shipment is 85%, 35% for the September shipment, and 20% for the October shipment. If US soybeans are not purchased, it is expected that the domestic supply from November to December can still be maintained [22]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is facing significant challenges due to prolonged rebate settlement periods and price inversion issues, prompting calls from dealers for manufacturers to optimize rebate policies and shorten payment timelines [1][4][8]. Group 1: Dealer Challenges - Approximately 84.4% of automotive dealers reported experiencing price inversion, with 60.4% facing a price inversion exceeding 15% [2]. - A survey of 42 automotive brands indicated that around 80% of best-selling models are affected by price inversion, with the inversion amount typically exceeding 20% [2]. - The automotive dealers are under severe financial pressure due to long rebate settlement periods, often exceeding 90 to 180 days, leading to cash flow crises [3][4]. Group 2: Rebate Policy Initiatives - The All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce Automotive Dealers Chamber has called for manufacturers to set clear rebate policies and reduce the rebate payment period to no more than 30 days [1][4]. - The Henan Province Automotive Industry Chamber has proposed a 60-day settlement period for dealer rebates to alleviate operational funding pressures [4][8]. - A survey revealed that 17 brands have a fixed rebate period of no more than 30 days, while others extend up to 180 days [6]. Group 3: Manufacturer Responses - BYD has initiated a rebate program for dealers, offering a reward of 666 yuan per vehicle, amounting to over 11.7 billion yuan based on recent sales data [7]. - Several manufacturers, including GAC Group and BMW, have committed to reducing rebate payment periods to 60 days, reflecting a growing recognition of the need for timely financial support for dealers [5][6]. - The industry is moving towards a collaborative ecosystem where manufacturers and dealers work together to mitigate risks and enhance long-term benefits [8].