1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Market is in a short - term long - short stalemate. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,000 - 15,500. Supply - side support exists due to geopolitical tensions in Thailand and domestic产区停割, while demand - side growth is restricted by slow tire sales and low profits in some sectors [1]. Polyolefins - Both polyethylene and polypropylene face a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [4]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating higher. The port market may be weak in the near term due to Iranian supply, while the inland market has increasing supply and demand. The 05 contract can be considered for long positions after reduced shipments [6][8]. LPG No specific overall view is provided other than presenting price, inventory, and开工率 data [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to have limited downside. The BZ2603 may oscillate between 5,300 - 5,600. Styrene has limited driving force and is expected to be weak in the short - term [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Rolling low - buying operations are recommended. - PTA: TA rolling low - buying and TA5 - 9 low - level positive spreads are suggested. - Ethylene Glycol: Short - term low - level oscillation is expected, and selling EG2605 - C - 4100 is advisable to obtain time value. - Short - fiber: It follows raw material fluctuations, and the disk processing fee can be shorted when it is high. - Polyester Bottle Chips: Selling PR2602 - P - 5500 is recommended, and the main disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton [15]. Crude Oil - The market is greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Brent crude should be monitored at the $60/barrel level. Attention should be paid to US - Russia talks, Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and the US - Venezuela situation [16]. Urea - The 2605 contract's main logic is the support of spring plowing fertilizer demand under high - supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether the price can stabilize at 1,700 and the spirit of the urea meeting [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak. PVC supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and the price outlook is not optimistic. Short - term observation and shorting on rebounds are recommended [19]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The supply - demand situation is bearish, and short - selling opportunities after rebounds should be noted. - Glass: The market has pressure, and the 01 contract will follow the delivery logic in December, while the 05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole latex remained unchanged at 15,050 yuan/ton; the whole - milk basis increased by 20.59%. Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.68% to 14,550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 16.67%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 66.67% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, Thailand's production decreased by 0.29%, Indonesia's by 1.53%, and China's by a certain amount. November domestic tire production increased by 3.96%, and exports increased by 9.36% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded - area inventory increased by 2.08%, and上期所factory - warehouse futures inventory increased by 3.87% [1]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot Prices**: L2601 and L2605 decreased slightly, PP2601 increased by 0.10%, and PP2605 decreased by 0.40%. Some spot prices changed slightly [4]. - **Spreads**: L15, PP15, and LP01 spreads changed to different extents [4]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: PE downstream weighted开工率 decreased by 1.28%, and some PP开工率 and inventory indicators changed [4]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 increased, and some spreads and basis changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 10.86%, while port inventory decreased by 1.26% [7]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 indicators increased or decreased [8]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: PG2601, PG2602, and PG2603 increased, and some spreads and basis changed [12]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory increased [12]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 indicators changed [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: Some prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene changed [14]. - **Inventory**: Benzene and styrene port inventories changed [14]. - **开工率**: Some开工率 indicators of the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Crude oil, PX, and polyester product prices changed to different extents [15]. - **Spreads**: PX - related spreads, PTA - related spreads, and MEG - related spreads changed [15]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Some开工率 indicators and MEG port inventory changed [15]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased, and some spreads changed [16]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: Some refined oil prices and spreads changed [16]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Some refined oil crack spreads changed [16]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices changed, and some spot prices changed [18]. - **Spreads and Positions**: Some spreads and positions changed [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and订单天数 changed [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: Some prices of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Some overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**:开工率, demand - side开工率, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass and Soda Ash Prices**: Some prices of glass and soda ash changed [20]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash开工率, production, and inventory, as well as glass inventory and some related data changed [20]. - **Real Estate Data**: Some real - estate data changed [20].

（原标题：崔东树：11月月末全国乘用车行业库存379万辆 去库时间升至61天） 智通财经APP获悉，崔东树发文称，由于10-11月车市表现一般，11月库存回升到379万辆的较高状态。 11月月末全国乘用车行业库存379万辆，较上月增38万辆，较2024年11月增59万辆，形成库存回升的旺 季备货特征。 根据2025年11月底的库存与未来3个月销量综合预估，现有库存支撑未来销售天数在61天，而 2024年11 月为48天，今年11月的总体库存压力相对较大。 从仅生产新能源车企业的库存变化特征分析看，随着反内卷的推动，行业库存9月降到62万辆，11月行 业库存上升到74万辆，较峰值库存降14万辆，但较10月增加12万辆。近期面临市场低于预期的风险，行 业库存总体压力较大。 1.近年狭义乘用车零售走势 5.全国乘用车市场预测指数与满意度指数 2024年乘用车国内零售前低后高，7-12月出现持续上升态势。2025年车市前低中高特征，1月由于春节 前置等因素较弱，今年国内车市零售累计增速从1月的负12%持续拉升到1-6月的11%，7-11月呈现高基 数的逐步减速特征，市场走出"前低中高后平"的走势。今年7-9月的零售同 ...

机构观点 建信期货：整体来看，纯碱市场短期仍处于供强需弱的格局之中，高库存压力难以快速化解，成本支撑虽逐步显现，但驱动有限。在供需结构未 发生明显转变前，预计盘面价格将继续在低位区间震荡磨底，操作上建议以观望为主，谨慎对待反弹行情，关注后续供需边际变化与政策端动 向。 12月18日，江苏昆山锦港纯碱装置负荷下降，价格稳定，轻质纯碱报价出厂1380-1400元。江苏井神化工纯碱装置减量，价格稳定，轻质报价出厂 1300元/吨。 截止到2025年12月18日，本周国内纯碱厂家总库存149.93万吨，较上周四增加0.50万吨，涨幅0.33%。 12月18日国内纯碱企业库存总量在138.6万吨(含部分厂家外库库存)，较12月11日库存增加1.2万吨，增幅0.9%，同比下降12.4%，其中重碱库存 64.4万吨，较12月11日库存下降0.2万吨，降幅0.3%。 12月18日，纯碱期货延续偏强走势，截至发稿主力合约报1192.00元/吨，大幅上涨2.05%。 【消息面汇总】 五矿期货：随着检修企业陆续复产，加上阿拉善地区新增产能释放预期升温，市场供应压力逐步凸显。下游需求尚未出现明显好转，采购仍以刚 需补库为主，整体备货 ...

出口方面，原料及制品出口有所分化。1—10月PVC粉累计出口323万吨，同比大增49%，但PVC制品出 口大幅下滑，1—10月铺地材料累计出口同比降低11.5%。印度反倾销政策尚未落地，国内PVC粉出口价 格优势带动接单阶段性好转，但受船运费用上涨等因素影响，预计出口接单难以再度出现集中放量的情 况，对国内库存消化支撑作用显著弱化。中期来看，明年一、二季度是海外的需求旺季，PVC出口存改 善预期，出口量预计增长15%左右，将有效缓解国内过剩压力。 当前国内PVC粉价格仍然处于历史偏低水平，成本端电石价格维持稳定，而烧碱价格持续下挫。截至12 月12日，西北氯碱综合利润为250元／吨，但山东地区氯碱装置亏损达600元／吨，"以碱补氯"对PVC生 产的支撑大幅减弱。电石法PVC亏损幅度在1000元／吨左右，乙烯法PVC亏损在500元／吨左右，行业 亏损格局未改，高成本装置或有序退出。 2025年以来，PVC市场因供增需减、地产疲软等因素陷入弱势，价格创近10年新低。本周以来，PVC期 货价格连续拉升，主力合约昨日收涨2.16%。笔者认为，短期期价大幅走强缺乏核心驱动力。中期来 看，期价能否迎来反转仍要关注政策效果 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 热卷日报：震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 16 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约日内震荡偏强，收于 3254 元/吨，上涨 21 元/ 吨，涨幅 0.65%。近两个交易日企稳回升走势。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 三、市场驱动因素分析 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3270 元/吨。 3，基差：期现基差 24 元，基差接近平水。 二、基本面数据 供需情况： ■供应端：截止 12 月 11 日热卷周产量环比下降 5.6 万吨至 308.71 万吨。 公历同比下降 11.41 万吨。近期产量连续下滑，后续钢厂可能有向螺纹转产预期， 可能边际减少热卷供应。 ■需求端：周度表观消费量环比下降 2.89 万吨至 311.97 万吨，公历同比下 降 5.02 万吨。内需制造业需求疲软，采购以刚需为主，主动备货意愿不强。出 口需求良好，分担国内供应压力。出口具备韧性形成支撑。 ■库存端：周环比下降 3.26 万吨至 397.09 万吨（社会库存降 7.37 万吨， 钢厂库存增 4.11 万吨，总库存 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market faces significant supply - demand pressures. Domestically, port inventories are accumulating, especially in East China. Overseas, there's a possibility of repair in the US - South Korea price difference. Demand is weak, and although supply - side reduction plans and decreasing imports may relieve inventory pressure, the market remains under pressure, expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - The styrene market maintains a pattern of low operation and steady inventory reduction. Port inventories are falling, but weak demand lacks upward momentum. With the approaching of December, the market enters the off - season, and inventory pressure still exists. Supply - side changes have limited impact due to unremarkable demand recovery [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Information - **Price**: On December 15, the styrene main contract closed up 0.70% at 6,487 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.52% at 5,448 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,315 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Cost**: On December 15, Brent crude closed at $57.4 per barrel (-$0.2 per barrel), and WTI crude closed at $61.1 per barrel (-$0.2 per barrel) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene port inventory was 14.7 tons (-1.4 tons), and pure benzene port inventory was 26.0 tons (+3.6 tons) [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene weekly output was 34.2 tons (+0.7 tons), and factory capacity utilization was 68.3% (-0.6%) [2]. - **Demand**: The overall demand of downstream 3S industries recovered. EPS capacity utilization was 53.8% (-2.6%), ABS capacity utilization was 70.5% (+2.2%), and PS capacity utilization was 58.3% (-0.7%) [2]. (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term market will oscillate. Attention should be paid to downstream operation recovery and import arrivals, and the market will seek a balance between inventory and supply [2]. - **Styrene**: The market lacks upward momentum due to weak demand, and supply - side changes have limited impact [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - Styrene futures main contract increased 0.70% from December 12 to December 15, and the spot price increased 0.06%. Pure benzene futures main contract increased 0.52%, and the East China spot price increased 0.28% [5]. (2) Styrene and Pure Benzene Output and Inventory - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, Chinese styrene output increased 2.32%, and pure benzene output decreased 1.70%. Styrene port and factory inventories decreased, while pure benzene port inventory increased 36.59% [6]. (3) Capacity Utilization - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the capacity utilization of styrene in pure benzene downstream increased 1.56%, and that of caprolactam decreased 7.53%. Among styrene downstream industries, EPS capacity utilization increased 1.61%, ABS decreased 2.90%, and PS increased 1.40% [7]. 3. Industry News - Canada provided CAD 235 million in aid to Ukraine. The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, falling short of market expectations. Fitch lowered the oil price forecast from 2025 to 2027. Venezuela's daily oil exports in November exceeded 900,000 barrels. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned economic weakness and the need for interest - rate cuts. The US EIA crude inventory in the week ending November 28 increased by 574,000 barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 250,000 barrels [8]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The content mainly includes charts of styrene and pure benzene prices, output, inventory, and capacity utilization, with data sources from iFinD and Steel Union Data [11][20][28][29]

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 原油 | | 过剩格局未变，油价反弹偏空。地缘：南美地缘不确定性上升，美国扣押 一艘委内瑞拉油轮；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍 | | | 谨慎看空 | 在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增，美国原油和成品油库存均 | | ★ | | 累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄 | | | | 乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端拖累，液化气走势偏弱。成本端原油，震荡调整，大趋势仍向下； | | | | 供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70%左 | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 右，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利空，港口与厂内库存环比上升。 | | ★ | | | | | | 装置维持高开工，短线超跌反弹。国内开工季节性回升，LL 加权毛利压缩 | | L | | 至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯裂解超预期检修难度相对较 | | | 空头盘整 | 高，供给端整体依旧充足。棚膜旺季逐步 ...

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 12 月 12 日 星期五 纯苯现实走弱累库增压，苯乙烯承压回落 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：12 月 11 日苯乙烯主力合约收涨 0.56%，报 6505 元/吨；纯 苯主力合约收涨 0.13%，报 5447 元/吨。 成本：12 月 11 日布油主力收盘 58.5 美元/桶（+0.2 美元/桶）， WTI 原油主力合约收盘 62.2 美元/桶（+0.3 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报 价 5310 元/吨（+0 元/吨）。 （2）观点 纯苯：国内纯苯短期仍处于强现实压力下，到港集中使港口库存快速累 积，市场对供应端的压力感知持续上升。海外方面，汽油最紧阶段已过 去，但裂解价差修复仍在滞后体现，美日韩价差仍有回调动力，市场关注 韩国货源是否继续向美国分流。下游整体仍处淡季，提货偏弱，苯乙烯在 检修下维持低负荷；CPL 开工降至年内低位；苯酚开工回升，而苯胺、己 二酸延续区间波动。整体来看，纯苯端"累库加速+需求不旺"的结构未 有明显改善，现实偏弱的特征仍将主导短期行情。 苯乙烯：苯乙烯基差依旧坚挺，但基本面偏弱格局未改 ...

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 12 月 11 日 星期四 纯苯累库加速压制，苯乙烯需求偏弱承压 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：12 月 10 日苯乙烯主力合约收跌 1.63%，报 6469 元/吨，基 差 156（-48 元/吨）；纯苯主力合约收跌 0.95%，报 5440 元/吨。 成本：12 月 10 日布油主力收盘 58.3 美元/桶（-0.6 美元/桶）， WTI 原油主力合约收盘 61.9 美元/桶（-0.6 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报 价 5310 元/吨（-45 元/吨）。 苯乙烯港口库存 16.1 万吨（-0.3 万吨），环比去库 7.5%，苯乙烯 仍高于往年。纯苯港口库存 22.4 万吨（+6.0 万吨），环比累库 36.6%。 供应：苯乙烯开工率及供应环比小幅波动。目前，苯乙烯周产量 34.2 万吨（+0.7 万吨），工厂产能利用率 68.9%（+1.6%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率整体需求回暖，EPS 产能利用率 56.4% （+1.6%），ABS 产能利用率 68.3%（-2.9%），PS 产能利用率 59.0% （+1. ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The report provides comprehensive analysis and forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., and gives corresponding investment suggestions based on market trends and fundamentals [2][8][9] Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - PX: High-level shock market, with cost support from rising crude oil prices and tight supply-demand situation. It's recommended to hold long PX and short BZ. There is a supply contraction expectation in the supply side, and the demand side has a certain gap under the high start - up mode of polyester. Do not chase high in the short term, and go long on dips [4][8] - PTA: High-level shock market, with cost support from PX. Hold long PX and short PTA in the 05 contract, and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. Be vigilant about the negative feedback of the industrial chain due to the early holiday of terminals from late December to early January [9] - MEG: Short - term support due to the postponement of the restart plan of Shenghong Refining and Chemical and the unplanned load reduction of multiple units. The price has limited downside space at 3600 yuan/ton. In the medium term, it is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand [9] Rubber - The rubber market is in a shock operation. As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The short - term price policy of most manufacturers remains stable, and the transaction has flexibility [11][12] Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is in a range operation. As of December 10, 2025, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber decreased, and the inventory of butadiene in East China ports also decreased. The market is in a situation of cautious price increase by suppliers and pressure on prices from downstream procurement [14][15][17] Asphalt - The asphalt market has a phased small - scale rebound due to geopolitical fluctuations. The weekly output increased this week, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased [18][28] LLDPE - The LLDPE market shows a unilateral decline, and the basis weakens again. The futures market is under pressure, the upstream sells at a reduced price, and the demand is weak. The supply in the first quarter of 2026 may increase [29][30] PP - The PP market continues to be weak. The cost support is limited, the supply - demand game of existing inventory intensifies, the demand is weak, and the profit of PDH is at a low level. Pay attention to the marginal changes of PDH devices [31][32] Caustic Soda - It is not advisable to chase short in the caustic soda market. The market has a pattern of high output and high inventory, the demand is weak, the supply pressure is large, and the cost has certain support, but the rebound is difficult [34][36] Pulp - The pulp market is in a shock - strengthening trend. The futures market trading volume increased, and the spot market has differentiation. The supply - demand pattern of the pulp and paper system is relatively loose, and it is recommended to pay attention to port inventory changes and futures market capital trends [39][41][43] Glass - The price of glass original sheets is stable. The floating glass price has minor fluctuations, the trading atmosphere in most regions is average, the demand is weak, and the supply inventory is high. Some production lines have a plan to stop production [46][47] Methanol - The methanol market is under pressure. The port inventory decreased significantly this week, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December. In the medium term, the high supply pressure of the 01 contract is the main contradiction, and the price upside space is limited [50][52] Urea - The urea market is in a shock operation. The enterprise inventory decreased this week, and the demand side has a phased improvement. The price has support from the decrease of explicit inventory, but there is policy pressure above, and the price is expected to be in a shock pattern [54][55][57] Styrene - The styrene market is in a short - term shock. The pure benzene market is in the range of 5300 - 5700 yuan/ton in the short term. The downstream inventory pressure of styrene is high, and the supply pressure is not large, and the port inventory is slightly reduced [58][59] Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changes little. The market trend is stable, the output of enterprises is high, the new orders received are average, and the downstream demand is not so strong [62] LPG, Propylene - LPG: Wide - range shock under the disturbance of the cost side. Pay attention to the changes in CP prices and the start - up rate of related devices [65][70][71] - Propylene: There is an expectation of supply increase, and the upward driving force is limited. The start - up rate of PDH increased compared with the previous week [66] PVC - The PVC market is in a low - level shock. The price is at a historical low, and some devices have a reduction expectation due to large losses. However, in the short term, it still faces the pattern of high start - up and weak demand [74][75] Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil: Continued downward trend, with the center of the disk moving down [77] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Weakened at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market rebounded slightly [77] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The PA alliance's unexpected performance drives the sentiment to improve. The short - term capital sentiment is optimistic, and the medium - term is a shock market. It is recommended to short the 2604 contract on rallies [79][90] Short Fiber, Bottle Chip - Both short fiber and bottle chip markets face medium - term pressure. It is recommended to short the processing fee on rallies. The futures prices of short fiber and bottle chip are weak, and the spot prices are adjusted down [92][93] Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see in the offset printing paper market. The prices in Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, the industry start - up level is high, and the market demand is light [95][96][98] Pure Benzene - The pure benzene market is in a short - term shock. The port inventory increased, and the current reality pressure is large. There is an expectation of supply contraction after January 2026, and the demand may improve [100][101]