Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a medium - term outlook of "oscillation" for the black building materials industry [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season, the steel inventory pressure is increasing, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures prices are under pressure. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, the iron ore has high shipping and high inventory pressure, and the coal supply is disturbed, but the support for coal - coke replenishment is weakening. The glass supply is also disturbed, but the oversupply restricts the upside space of the glass and soda ash futures [1]. - Overall, the winter storage of furnace materials is coming to an end, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, there is pressure above the futures prices, but there is no negative feedback expectation, and the downside space of the cost side is limited. The sector is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Inventory pressure is continuously increasing, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, and post - holiday demand is uncertain. The supply and demand at present need to be verified, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [1]. Carbon Element - The growth space of coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side. Domestic coal mines will gradually reduce production approaching the holiday, the coking coal fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to oscillate, and the fluctuation of the current sentiment remains to be observed [2]. Alloys - The supply - demand contradiction in the coal market is limited, the coal price fluctuates within a narrow range, and the power - consumption cost of ferromanganese - silicon is difficult to adjust significantly. The current market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main contract of ferromanganese - silicon will oscillate around the cost. The supply - demand contradiction in the coal market is not large, the coal price is expected to oscillate, and the cost adjustment of ferrosilicon is difficult to exceed expectations. The current market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is limited. However, the trading activity before the festival is low, and the driving force for the futures price to rise is insufficient. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will oscillate around the cost [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of disturbances in glass supply, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [2]. Specific Varieties - **Steel**: The cost support is limited, and the futures price is under pressure. The spot market trading is average. The profitability of steel mills has slightly shrunk, the resumption of production in steel mills is slow, and the overall demand is seasonally weakening. The inventory pressure is increasing, and the fundamentals are gradually accumulating contradictions. It is expected to oscillate widely [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the futures and spot prices are under pressure. Overseas mine shipments have increased, the arrival at ports has weakened, and the supply side is expected to be disturbed by weather. The demand is stable, and the inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both seasonally declining, and the price in East China has slightly increased. The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [11]. - **Coke**: The spot price is stable for the time being, and the futures price follows the cost side. The supply change is limited, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory is increasing. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force is limited. The spot price is expected to be stable, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [14]. - **Coking Coal**: As the Spring Festival approaches, coal mines are gradually on holiday, and the futures price is strong due to event disturbances. The supply of domestic coal mines will gradually decline, the import is still at a high level, and the downstream inventory is gradually in place. The fundamentals are healthy, but the bullish driving force is limited. The spot price may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to oscillate widely [15][16]. - **Glass**: The supply is still disturbed, and the price oscillates upward. The supply is expected to decline in the long term, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate, and if there is no more cold - repair, the high inventory will suppress the price [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The cost drives the sentiment to warm up, and the production remains at a high level. The supply has slightly declined, the demand is weakening, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the oversupply pattern will intensify in the long term [17][20]. - **Ferromanganese - Silicon**: The futures price center has moved up, but there is still pressure above. The cost support is strengthened, the market trading is cooling down, the cost adjustment is small, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is difficult to digest the high - level inventory. It is expected to oscillate around the cost [20]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The trading atmosphere is cold, and the driving force for the price to rise is insufficient. The cost support is strengthened, the cost change is small, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is at a low level. It is expected to oscillate around the cost [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt are all rated with three stars (★★★), indicating a clearer long/short trend and currently a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [2] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical risk premium for crude oil has weakened, and prices are under pressure. Fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil follow the crude oil market, with the high-sulfur > low-sulfur pattern likely to continue. Asphalt has a limited decline and its near-month futures contracts are supported by cost factors [3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The situation between the US and Iran has unexpectedly eased, and the geopolitical risk premium has weakened, causing the previous gains to be continuously reversed. The inventory pressure in the global crude oil market is significant in Q1. With the uncertainty of the US-Iran negotiations and the strengthening of the US dollar, oil prices are expected to fluctuate frequently [3] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil has declined following the bearish sentiment in the crude oil market. High-sulfur fuel oil has a tight spot market due to factors such as reduced Russian exports and increased alternative procurement in China. Geopolitical risks still provide some support. In the medium term, the high-sulfur market will face supply pressure if the geopolitical risks do not escalate. Low-sulfur fuel oil has continuous supply pressure due to the postponed return of the RFCC unit at the Dangote refinery in Nigeria. The demand support has weakened. The fuel oil market will mainly follow the fluctuations of crude oil, and the high-sulfur > low-sulfur pattern may continue [4] Asphalt - Asphalt has corrected following the crude oil-related varieties, but the decline is relatively limited. The supply pressure is limited in the short term, and the consumption performance has improved year-on-year. The domestic refineries' search for substitutes for Venezuelan crude oil supports the near-month asphalt futures contracts from the cost side, and the asphalt crack spread is strong [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is gradually emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market follows the market sentiment and weakens. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, and the iron ore market is under pressure from high shipments and high inventory, while pre - holiday restocking in the demand side supports the ore price. The first round of price increase for coke has been implemented, Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level, but there is an expectation of supply tightening for coking coal before the Spring Festival, and the futures market fluctuates sharply. There are disturbances in the glass supply, but the oversupply situation continues to limit the upside space of the glass futures market. Overall, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, there is pressure above the futures price, but the restocking intensity before the Spring Festival still exists, and the subsequent resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to further boost the restocking expectation, and the cost side still has support. It is expected that the sector will oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [1][2][5] 3. Summary of Each Category 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and arrivals continued to weaken. Due to the impact of weather, there is an expectation of supply disturbances. On the demand side, iron - making water production decreased slightly month - on - month, steel mills' profitability weakened, rigid demand was stable, and steel mills' restocking accelerated before the Spring Festival, but the support for prices may gradually weaken as restocking progresses. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and the overall inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [6][7] - **Scrap Steel**: Both supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As restocking nears the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and it is expected that the spot price will mainly follow the finished products [8] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been fully implemented, and coking profits have improved significantly. The overall supply change is limited. On the demand side, steel - mill blast furnaces are in a state of both resumption and maintenance, and iron - making water production remains high, with strong rigid demand support. The inventory in steel mills has increased steadily. The supply growth space is limited, and the downstream steel - mill resumption expectation still exists. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the fundamental bullish driving force is also limited. The spot is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost side (coking coal) [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The domestic supply is temporarily stable, and Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level. The downstream winter - storage restocking is still in progress, and the upstream coal - mine inventory is being continuously digested. As the winter - storage inventory gradually reaches the target, the spot - market sentiment has cooled down, and the online auctions show mixed results, with the overall coal price weakly stable. The futures market oscillates due to the impact of capital - sentiment fluctuations. Before the Spring Festival, domestic coal - mine production will gradually decline, the fundamentals will remain healthy, but the fundamental bullish driving force is limited. The spot is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuation of the futures - market sentiment remains to be observed [12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures market rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main contract will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of raw - material prices and the change in manufacturers' production - control intensity [15] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The supply - and - demand situation is weak, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The low trading activity before the Spring Festival suppresses the upside space of the futures market. It is expected that the futures price will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and settlement electricity prices, as well as the production - control trends in the main production areas [16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has an expectation of disturbances, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Currently, the supply - and - demand situation is still in oversupply. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] - **Soda Ash**: The daily production is continuously at a high level, and restocking is nearing the end. The overall supply - and - demand situation is still in oversupply. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply situation will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [13]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in tin prices is driven by a combination of macroeconomic pressures, weak demand recovery, and rising inventory levels, leading to a bearish sentiment in the market [2][3][4]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The US dollar index has seen significant gains, creating a strong currency environment that diminishes the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities like tin [2]. - The US stock market is experiencing heightened risk aversion, particularly affecting technology stocks, which has negatively impacted market confidence in downstream demand for tin in electronics and AI hardware [2]. - Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and unexpected inflation data have reversed optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a tightening of liquidity support [2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - There is a clear expectation of a shift from tight to loose global supply conditions, primarily driven by steady recovery in Myanmar's Wa region and ongoing releases of legal production capacity in Indonesia [3]. - Global visible tin inventories have surged significantly from their lows, raising concerns about oversupply and putting downward pressure on prices [3]. Group 3: Demand Challenges - The traditional consumption sectors, which constitute the majority of tin demand, remain sluggish, with no strong signs of recovery in electronic solder, home appliances, and real estate-related tin chemical demand [4]. - Although emerging sectors like photovoltaics and AI servers show long-term resilience, their current share of total demand is still small, making it difficult to offset declines in traditional sectors [4]. - High historical tin prices have suppressed actual purchasing intentions among downstream users, leading to low inventory levels and weak support in the spot market [4]. Group 4: Industry Profitability - The profit distribution within the tin industry is increasingly skewed towards upstream resource providers, who are benefiting from their scarcity [5]. - As expectations for increased tin supply rise, the scarcity premium for upstream resources is likely to face downward pressure [5]. - Midstream smelting operations, primarily dominated by China, are stable but face rising environmental costs, while downstream processing enterprises are struggling with weak orders and high raw material costs [5]. Group 5: Market Sentiment - The sharp decline in futures prices has led to a collapse in trading sentiment in the spot market, with traders opting for aggressive selling to avoid further losses [6]. - Downstream processing companies are maintaining minimal purchasing levels due to weak end-user demand and a strong wait-and-see attitude, resulting in a lack of buying interest [7]. - The market is characterized by a "strong selling but weak buying" dynamic, indicating a challenging short-term trading atmosphere [7]. Group 6: Short-term Outlook - Tin prices are expected to continue fluctuating as they seek a bottom, with investors advised to monitor developments in Myanmar's production recovery, the Federal Reserve's March meeting, domestic consumption trends, and global inventory depletion rates [8].

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report, dated February 2, 2026 [1] Core Views Bullish Factors - Indonesia's production cut expectation: The Indonesian government is expected to lower the nickel ore quota in 2026, which may lead to a global nickel supply shortage and benefit prices [3] - New energy vehicle demand: The automobile production and sales data in January were good, and policy measures may stimulate demand, supporting nickel prices [3] Bearish Factors - Domestic inventory pressure has increased [3] - The Shanghai nickel futures show a weak trend technically [3] Trading Advice - Shanghai nickel showed a "sideways and weak" trend last week. Although the expectation of production cuts in Indonesia boosted sentiment, the significant increase in inventory turned market sentiment bearish. It is recommended to monitor subsequent inventory changes [3] Market Data Nickel Futures - Shanghai nickel main contract: The latest price was 140,000 yuan/ton, down 5,380 yuan (-3.70%) week-on-week [4] - Shanghai nickel continuous contracts (1 - 3): All showed price declines, with the largest decline of 3.93% in the continuous one contract [4] - LME nickel 3M: The latest price was 17,555 US dollars/ton, down 1,035 US dollars (-3.81%) week-on-week [4] - Open interest: Increased by 73,165 lots to 132,448 lots, a week-on-week increase of 123.4% [4] - Trading volume: Increased by 281,963 lots to 1,012,443 lots, a week-on-week increase of 38.60% [4] - Warehouse receipts: Increased by 4,359 tons to 46,876 tons, a week-on-week increase of 10.25% [4] - Main contract basis: Decreased by 2,370 yuan to 2,700 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 46.75% [4] Stainless Steel Futures - Stainless steel main contract: The latest price was 14,140 yuan/ton, down 505 yuan (-3%) week-on-week [4] - Stainless steel continuous contracts (1 - 3): All showed price declines, with the largest decline of 3.45% in the continuous one contract [4] - Trading volume: Increased by 42,057 lots to 408,041 lots, a week-on-week increase of 11.49% [4] - Open interest: Decreased by 56,278 lots to 99,011 lots, a week-on-week decrease of 36.24% [4] - Warehouse receipts: Increased by 4,641 tons to 43,579 tons, a week-on-week increase of 11.92% [4] - Main contract basis: Increased by 405 yuan to 630 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 180.00% [4] Spot Prices - Jinchuan nickel: The latest price was 149,900 yuan/ton, down 1,750 yuan (-1.15%) [4] - Imported nickel: The latest price was 142,700 yuan/ton, down 1,950 yuan (-1.35%) [4] - 1 electrolytic nickel: The latest price was 146,150 yuan/ton, down 1,850 yuan (-1.25%) [4] - Nickel beans: The latest price was 145,100 yuan/ton, down 1,950 yuan (-1.33%) [4] - Electrowon nickel: The latest price was 142,600 yuan/ton, down 1,950 yuan (-1.35%) [4] Inventory Data - Domestic social inventory: Reached 70,643 tons, an increase of 4,349 tons [6] - LME nickel inventory: Reached 286,284 tons, a decrease of 186 tons [6] - Stainless steel social inventory: Reached 853 tons, an increase of 8.9 tons [6] - Nickel pig iron inventory: Reached 29,346 tons, a decrease of 879 tons [6] Charts and Data Sources Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures Prices - Shanghai nickel futures main contract closing price and LME nickel (3 months) electronic trading closing price trends from 2024 - 2026 [7] - Stainless steel futures main contract closing price trends from 2024 - 2026 [8] Spot Prices of Delivery Goods - Nickel spot average price trends from 2024 - 2026 [10] Primary Nickel Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel monthly production seasonality from 2021 - 2025 [12] - China's total monthly supply of primary nickel (including imports) seasonality from 2021 - 2025 [12] - Domestic social inventory (nickel plates + nickel beans) seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [13] - LME nickel inventory seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [13] Upstream Nickel Ore - Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) average price trends from 2015 - 2025 [15] - China's port nickel ore inventory by port seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [16] - China's 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price (national average) trends from 2020 - 2025 [17] - Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (arrival duty - paid) average price trends from 2021 - 2025 [17] - China's nickel iron monthly production seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [18] - Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly production seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [19] Downstream Nickel Sulfate - Battery - grade nickel sulfate average price trends from 2024 - 2025 [21] - Battery - grade nickel sulfate premium trends from 2021 - 2025 [23] - Nickel bean production of nickel sulfate profit margin seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [24] - China's externally purchased nickel sulfate production of electrowon nickel profit seasonality from 2023 - 2026 [24] - China's nickel sulfate monthly production (metal tons) from 2021 - 2025 [25] - Ternary precursor monthly production capacity seasonality from 2021 - 2025 [25] Stainless Steel - China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil profit margin seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [27] - Stainless steel monthly production seasonality from 2021 - 2025 [29] - Stainless steel inventory seasonality from 2022 - 2026 [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The steel market has neutral fundamentals with no significant contradictions, and steel prices are in a range - bound oscillation [3]. - The overall commodity market is strongly bullish, and iron ore prices deviate from fundamentals in the short - term. Iron ore supply and demand are both weak, but there is support from the steel industry chain, and the downside price space is limited [21]. - The coking coal market shows a stage - excess pattern currently. The supply - demand structure may improve around the Spring Festival, but the long - term trend is hard to change. If there is a combination of "domestic mine复产 exceeding expectations" and "weakening macro sentiment", coal - coke prices may face significant downward pressure [32]. - Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side, with silicon manganese suppressed by high inventory. Silicon iron has a slightly better fundamental situation, and in the short - term, ferroalloys are in a range - bound oscillation between the cost line and the previous pressure level [48]. - The soda ash market has an increasing supply expectation with new capacity coming on - stream. Although exports are high, the high inventory of the upper and middle reaches restricts the price [62]. - The float glass market has a supply - demand imbalance with weak demand and supply uncertainties. The high inventory in the middle reaches needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [86]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of螺纹钢01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3211, 3128, and 3177 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of热卷01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3336, 3288, and 3311 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 month spreads of螺纹钢 and热卷 were 83 and 48 yuan/ton respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 49 and - 23 yuan/ton respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were - 34 and - 25 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The national aggregated price of螺纹钢 was 3317 yuan/ton; the aggregated prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and other places varied. The basis of螺纹钢 and热卷 in different contracts and regions also changed [8][10]. - **Ratio**: The ratios of 01螺纹/01铁矿 and 01螺纹/01焦炭 were both 4 and 2 respectively [17]. Iron Ore - **Prices**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 760, 791.5, and 772.5 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of different contracts also changed [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily average hot metal output was 227.98 tons; the 45 - port desilting volume was 332.31 tons; the 45 - port inventory was 17022.26 tons, etc. [26]. Coal - Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 month spreads of焦煤 and焦炭 changed. The盘面焦化利润 was - 24 yuan/ton [35]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of different types of焦 coal and coke in various regions remained stable on January 30, 2026 [38]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: The basis in Ningxia was 40 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 month spread was 104 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions were between 5350 - 5450 yuan/ton [49]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The basis in Inner Mongolia was 178 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 month spread was 108 yuan/ton; the spot prices in different regions were between 5620 - 5800 yuan/ton [50]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1204, 1266, and 1299 yuan/ton respectively. The month spreads also changed [63]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of重碱 and轻碱 in different regions remained stable, and the spread between重碱 and轻碱 varied by region [63]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads**: On January 30, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1056, 1167, and 1224 yuan/ton respectively. The month spreads and basis in different regions changed [87]. - **Sales and Production**: The sales - to - production ratios in different regions such as沙河, Hubei, etc. were reported [88].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call on Precious Metals Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the precious metals market, particularly focusing on gold and silver prices, influenced by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical uncertainties [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - Since 2019, the persistent dollar easing environment and uncertainties surrounding Trump's 2.0 policies have increased market demand for safe-haven assets, driving gold prices up over 65% and silver prices up over 150% by 2025 [1][3]. - Speculation about high tariffs on strategic metals by the U.S. has led to a shift in global silver inventories, with a decrease in London stocks and an increase in New York stocks, supporting silver prices [1][3]. - Geopolitical shocks and inventory pressures are significant factors affecting silver prices, with Trump's policies impacting the global monetary system and market sentiment [1][4]. - While demand driven by AI narratives exists, geopolitical shocks and inventory pressures have a more substantial impact on current silver market dynamics [4]. - The decline in inventory has created some delivery pressure, but it is not as severe as some reports suggest; real delivery pressure stems from tightness in the physical market rather than excessive open interest [5][6]. Important but Overlooked Content - Historical context is provided through the reference to the Hunt brothers' failed silver squeeze, highlighting the interaction between price movements and market behavior [7]. - The current bull market for precious metals is entering its latter stages, with silver outperforming gold recently, indicating a potential continuation of the bull market depending on U.S. economic conditions [10]. - Predictions for 2026 suggest that the trajectory of gold and silver prices will heavily depend on the U.S. economy's performance, with scenarios ranging from hard landing (continuing the bull market) to soft landing or rate hikes (potentially weakening the bull market) [11][13]. - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies complicates traditional forecasting methods, making it challenging to predict price peaks accurately [12][14]. - The sentiment among retail and institutional investors is rising, with many confused by the rapid price increases, which have exceeded previous forecasts significantly [17]. Future Outlook - The outlook for silver prices in 2026 will depend on the resolution of geopolitical uncertainties and the economic direction of the U.S., particularly regarding Trump's policies and their implications for the market [11][18]. - The potential for a squeeze in gold is less likely due to ample inventory and the complexities involved in forcing a squeeze compared to other commodities [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has warmed up, and the market is operating strongly. The pace of steel mill复产 is slow, and the high shipping volume and high inventory of iron ore still pose pressure. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, and there are disturbances on the coking coal supply side, leading to a rebound in the market at a low level. In the off - season, the inventory accumulation pressure of steel products is becoming more obvious, and the fundamentals lack highlights, but there is no negative feedback expectation for the time being, and the market follows the cost to strengthen. Glass and soda ash follow the sector to strengthen, but the oversupply continues to limit the upside space of the market [1] - In general, the fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster. Before the Spring Festival, continue to pay attention to the downstream inventory replenishment intensity. At the same time, the resumption of production of steel enterprises in January is expected to further boost the inventory replenishment expectation. At that time, the furnace material prices still have the expectation of a low - level rebound. Pay attention to the disturbance of macro - policies [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - The arrival volume of iron ore has decreased, and the short - term supply pressure has eased slightly, but the inventory pressure is still increasing. The commodity sentiment is strong, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The supply and demand on both sides in reality still need to be verified. The scrap steel supply is stable, and the daily consumption is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, but the recent warming of the commodity market sentiment is expected to drive the spot price to follow the finished products [1] 3.2 Carbon Element - The possibility of a significant increase in coke supply is low, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will continue to be healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. After the spot price increase is implemented, it may remain stable for the time being, and the market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side. The output of domestic coal mines will gradually decline approaching the holiday, and the coking coal fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may remain oscillating before the Spring Festival, and the sustainability of the current warm sentiment in the market remains to be observed, and it is expected to oscillate [2] 3.3 Alloys - The manganese - silicon market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. When the market rises to a high level, it may face selling pressure from hedging. The futures price of the main contract is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. The silicon - iron market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The low trading activity restricts the upside space of the market. It is difficult for the futures price of the main contract to maintain a high level. In the long - term, the futures price may still oscillate around the cost valuation [2] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disturbances for glass, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [2] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis 3.5.1 Steel - The cost support is strengthening, and the market is rising from a low level. The spot market trading is average. The profitability of steel mills has shrunk slightly, the molten iron output has remained stable month - on - month, and the output of the five major steel products has increased slightly. In the off - season, the demand for building materials continues to weaken seasonally, and the steel export shows a sign of a high - level decline, but the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience. The inventory accumulation pressure of steel products is becoming more obvious, and the overall inventory level is still moderately high. The market is expected to oscillate widely [8] 3.5.2 Iron Ore - The molten iron output has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the downstream inventory is accumulating rapidly. Overseas mine shipping has increased, and the arrival volume has continued to weaken. The demand side has a stable rigid demand, and the steel mill inventory is increasing rapidly. The port inventory is still accumulating. The short - term supply pressure has eased slightly, and the inventory pressure is still increasing. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [8] 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - The arrival volume this week has decreased, and the daily consumption of electric furnaces is expected to decline seasonally. The supply of scrap steel is stable, and the daily consumption is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, but the recent warming of the commodity market sentiment is expected to drive the spot price to follow the finished products [9] 3.5.4 Coke - The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the market sentiment is warm. The supply of coke has decreased month - on - month, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory of steel mills is increasing steadily. The supply - demand structure will continue to be healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may remain stable after the price increase is implemented, and the market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side [12] 3.5.5 Coking Coal - The spot price is oscillating weakly and stably, and the market is operating strongly. The domestic supply is stable, the import volume is still high, and the inventory of upstream coal mines is being continuously digested. The fundamentals have limited changes. The spot price may remain oscillating before the Spring Festival, and the sustainability of the current warm sentiment in the market remains to be observed, and it is expected to oscillate [13] 3.5.6 Glass - The downstream is approaching the holiday, and the production and sales are weakening month - on - month. The supply may be disturbed, the demand is weak, and the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [14] 3.5.7 Soda Ash - Driven by the macro - sentiment, the price is oscillating. The supply has increased slightly, the demand is weakening, and the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [14][17] 3.5.8 Manganese - Silicon - Driven by the macro - sentiment, the market is rising, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure at the upper level. The cost is expected to increase, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is difficult to digest the high - level inventory. The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price of the main contract is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [17] 3.5.9 Silicon - Iron - The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it is difficult for the market to maintain a high level. The cost support still exists, the demand support is weakening, and the daily output is at a low level. The market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. It is difficult for the futures price of the main contract to maintain a high level. In the long - term, the futures price may still oscillate around the cost valuation [19]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: No specific rating mentioned but market shows strength [2] - Polyethylene and Polypropylene: No specific rating mentioned, mixed signals in market [2] - PX and PTA: Positive in the first half of the year, but with inventory concerns around the Spring Festival [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Potential for short - term improvement in the second quarter, long - term pressure [3] - Short Fibre: Price follows raw materials, weak downstream demand [3] - Bottle Chip: Consider spread opportunities after the Spring Festival, long - term capacity pressure [3] - Pure Benzene: Short - term uncertainty, potential downward pressure with increased supply [5] - Styrene: Short - term price pressure [5] - Methanol: Short - term bullish, medium - long - term port inventory expected to decline slowly [6] - Urea: Price fluctuates within a range [6] - PVC: Monitor export and cost factors, inventory pressure exists [7] - Caustic Soda: Weak reality, potential for production cut, profit compression [7] - Soda Ash: High - altitude shorting strategy, long - term oversupply pressure [8] - Glass: Seasonal inventory build - up expected, follow macro sentiment [8] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical situations, cost changes, supply - demand dynamics, and seasonal factors. Different products show different trends and investment opportunities, with some facing short - term uncertainties and others having long - term capacity pressures [2][3][5] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose, with low enterprise inventory and increased buying due to strong futures and downstream restocking [2] - Polyethylene has supply pressure and decreasing demand, while polypropylene has cost support and reduced inventory pressure but weak new orders [2] Polyester - PX and PTA may be bullish in the first half, but inventory may accumulate around the Spring Festival. Consider positive spreads in the second quarter [3] - Ethylene Glycol may improve in the second quarter but is under long - term pressure [3] - Short Fibre price follows raw materials with weak downstream demand [3] - Bottle Chip may have spread opportunities after the Spring Festival, long - term capacity pressure exists [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene price is strong but may face downward pressure with increased supply [5] - Styrene has cost support but short - term price pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term, with medium - long - term port inventory expected to decline [6] - Urea price fluctuates within a range due to demand and supply factors [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC has inventory pressure, and its price is affected by exports and costs [7] - Caustic Soda has high inventory and profit compression, with potential for production cuts [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda Ash has inventory pressure and long - term oversupply, use a high - altitude shorting strategy [8] - Glass may have seasonal inventory build - up and follow macro sentiment [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has weakened, and prices are fluctuating downward. Glass and soda ash continue to fluctuate due to insufficient downstream demand, while ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are also in a state of oscillatory operation with no prominent supply - demand contradictions [1][3] - The strategies for glass and silicomanganese are to expect an oscillatory trend, and for soda ash, it is an oscillatory and weakening trend, while for silicon - iron, it is also an oscillatory trend [2][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The glass 2605 contract showed a narrow - range fluctuation yesterday, and some manufacturers slightly raised prices with a fair trading atmosphere. The soda ash 2605 contract mainly oscillated, and downstream buyers were mainly on the sidelines [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Glass fundamentals are still weak. With the Spring Festival approaching, production line cold - repairs continue, and there are still expectations of production suspension. Recently, shipments have improved, and inventory pressure on the supply side has eased. Downstream enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases, and attention should be paid to inventory accumulation during the holiday. For soda ash, 1719 warehouse receipts were recorded yesterday. As the delivery month approaches, a sharp increase in single - day warehouse receipts suppresses prices. The latest data shows an increase in inventory, weak demand, and deepening supply - demand contradictions. Considering the warehouse - receipt game in the delivery month, soda ash prices are expected to maintain an oscillatory operation [1] - **Strategy**: Glass is expected to oscillate, and soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly [2] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the silicomanganese main contract showed a weakening trend during the day with a large increase in positions. The alloy cost has fair support, with the 6517 northern market price ranging from 5570 - 5680 yuan/ton and the southern market price from 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton. An eastern steel mill set the silicomanganese tender price at 5830 yuan/ton today, with a tender quantity of 4000 tons. The ferrosilicon futures continued to oscillate weakly yesterday, the ferrosilicon market had a slight adjustment, and the market sentiment was rather flat. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas is 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon is 5750 - 5950 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The fundamentals of silicomanganese have improved, but the inventory pressure is still large, and there are new production capacities being put into operation, so the supply - demand situation remains relatively loose. There is an expectation of an increase in pig iron production in the future, and combined with the expectation of steel mills' pre - Spring Festival stockpiling, the demand for silicomanganese is expected to improve. The recent South African tariff policy has caused disturbances, and it may increase the manganese ore cost in the future. Attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and production changes. For ferrosilicon, the fundamental contradictions are controllable, and enterprises have actively reduced production loads. Considering the resumption of steel mills' production and winter stockpiling, the demand for ferrosilicon is expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy implemented in Shaanxi in the second half of the year has affected market sentiment, but considering that the domestic electricity price is expected to decline further next year and the overall ferrosilicon production capacity is in surplus, the price increase is restricted. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction of ferrosilicon and the electricity price policy in production areas [3] - **Strategy**: Both silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [4]