Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and thermal coal are all "oscillating" [1][3][5][7] Core Views - The steel market has inventory pressure, and steel prices will oscillate. The iron ore market has high supply and inventory pressure, and ore prices will likely oscillate. The coking coal and coke markets are pessimistic, with prices running weakly. The thermal coal market has limited supply recovery and high prices, with short - term prices oscillating strongly [1][3][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, steel futures prices oscillated weakly, and spot prices followed suit. National building materials trading volume was 84,500 tons, a decrease of 8.15% from the previous day. Rebar production increased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand was better than expected. Hot - rolled coil production increased slightly, inventory decreased, and consumption increased month - on - month [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials have supply pressure, but inventory reduction is significant, and apparent consumption is good. However, the consumption off - season is approaching, and consumption sustainability needs to be observed. The supply - demand pattern of strip steel has improved, but supply pressure remains, and inventory reduction pressure is still large. Short - term steel prices will oscillate, and future winter storage games and raw material support need to be observed [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures oscillated. Spot prices were generally weak and stable, and trading was dull. The cumulative trading volume of main ports in the country was 918,000 tons, an increase of 27.32% from the previous day. This week, the average daily hot metal output decreased slightly, port inventory decreased slightly, and the number of stranded ships increased [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore supply remains high, and inventory pressure persists. With steel mills' losses and production cuts, hot metal output has decreased month - on - month. Port inventory reduction and a decline in arrivals support prices, so the callback space for ore prices is limited, and they will likely oscillate within a range. Future hot metal output and downstream inventory changes need to be observed [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the prices of black - sector commodities generally fell, and the prices of coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. Imported Mongolian coal prices weakened due to the decline in futures prices, trading was cold, and trading volume further declined. This week, coking coal production continued to increase, downstream coking plants and ports reduced inventory significantly, coke production decreased slightly, and overall inventory increased slightly [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, domestic mines are gradually resuming production, Mongolian coal customs clearance remains high, and seaborne coal imports have also increased. Short - term coking coal supply has recovered month - on - month, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, with insufficient speculative demand. The market focus is on the value of warehouse receipts. For coke, production restrictions in some areas have ended, supply has improved, hot metal output has decreased slightly, speculative demand has weakened, and coke supply and demand are in a weak balance [6] - **Strategy**: Coking coal and coke trading are both oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, coal prices have been slightly adjusted, and supply has tightened in some mines due to environmental protection and other factors, leading to a slight increase in prices. At present, coal prices are relatively high, and downstream buyers only purchase on demand, with speculative demand slowing down. At ports, inventory has accumulated due to navigation bans, market coal trading is sluggish, and downstream buyers are mainly waiting and watching. For imported coal, supply from Indonesia is low, and foreign mine quotes remain high due to existing profits [7] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Current supply recovery in the production area is limited, and downstream purchasing is more cautious. However, the consumption peak season has arrived, port inventory accumulation is lower than expected, and non - power demand downstream is strong. Short - term prices will oscillate strongly, and future overall consumption and inventory replenishment need to be observed [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron Ore: Sideways [2] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [3][4] - Thermal Coal: Sideways with a Bullish Bias [5] Core Views - Steel has inventory pressure, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Iron ore supply pressure remains, and prices will likely oscillate at high levels. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to early release of warehouse receipt pressure. Thermal coal prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, influenced by the winter heating season and other factors [1][2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices fluctuated weakly, and spot transactions were generally dull, with low - price rigid demand as the main driver. National building materials transactions were 9.23 tons, a 4.14% decrease from the previous day. Building materials production and sales declined, inventory decreased, hot - rolled coil production decreased, inventory declined, and consumption increased [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Building materials production decreased, inventory continued to decline, apparent consumption was weak, and the fundamentals continued to face pressure. The contradictions of high inventory and high production of strip materials have not been resolved. Short - term prices will continue to fluctuate, and subsequent winter storage games and raw material support need to be observed [1] - **Strategy**: Single - side trading: Sideways; Other strategies: None [1] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices maintained a sideways trend, spot prices rose slightly, and transactions improved. National main port iron ore cumulative transactions were 72.1 tons, an 18.98% increase from the previous day [2] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Iron ore supply remained at a high level, inventory continued to increase, and steel mills were losing money and reducing production. There was a seasonal weakening expectation for hot metal. However, considering the limited arrival volume of iron ore, the downward adjustment space for ore prices was insufficient, and they would likely maintain a range - bound operation. Subsequent hot metal production and downstream inventory changes need to be monitored [2] - **Strategy**: Single - side trading: Sideways; Other strategies: None [2] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Futures prices continued to fluctuate weakly. Imported Mongolian coal prices at ports declined due to the downward transmission of futures prices, and market trading volume continued to decline [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, domestic production gradually recovered, Mongolian coal customs clearance was at a high level, and seaborne coal imports increased. Speculative demand decreased, and downstream maintained a rigid procurement rhythm. For coke, after four rounds of price increases, coking enterprise profits improved, but supply did not increase significantly. Although hot metal increased slightly, further steel mill production reduction plans need to be monitored. Currently, the coking coal trading focus is on the warehouse receipt value, and the market avoids subsequent warehouse receipt pressure through early price drops [3] - **Strategy**: Coking coal: Sideways; Coke: Sideways; Other strategies: None [3][4] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the producing areas, coal prices rose slightly, and downstream procurement was acceptable, mostly on a demand - based basis. Supply was relatively stable, but some resources were difficult to ship, and miners were still optimistic. Port inspections were still strict, and some coal mines sold a small amount of goods as their tasks were almost completed. At ports, transactions were mainly long - term contracts, and downstream resistance to high - priced coal was high, with market coal transactions relatively cold. Due to gale - induced port closures, inventory slowly increased. Imported coal still had profit margins, and the market was active [5] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Current supply recovery in the producing areas was limited, and downstream procurement was more cautious. However, with the arrival of the winter heating season, port inventory accumulation was lower than expected, and non - power downstream demand was strong. Short - term prices will fluctuate strongly, and overall consumption and restocking need to be monitored [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs at the bottom, but the upward drive is suppressed by inventory. It is expected to trade in a range, with rebar between 2900 - 3200 and hot - rolled coil between 3100 - 3400. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption, and the risk lies in the possible negative feedback from the decline in the profitability of steel enterprises [3]. - The iron ore fundamentals show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with continuous inventory accumulation, but a structural shortage of deliverable products. The price lacks a strong trend driver. In the short - term, the shipment of iron ore is increasing again, and the output of non - mainstream mines remains high. The iron ore price may be affected by the change in coking coal valuation [20]. - In the short - term, the coal - coke futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure due to factors such as high spot prices, weak downstream acceptance, and reduced demand. In the long - term, the coal - coke price may rise due to supply restrictions and winter storage demand [30]. - Ferroalloys are facing high inventory and weak demand. The cost center may shift down due to the impact of energy supply guarantee on coking coal prices, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to trade weakly [42]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Without production cuts, the valuation has no upward elasticity. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the upper - middle stream inventory is high, but the price is supported by cost [52]. - The glass market has weak sales recently, and the high inventory in the middle stream puts pressure on the spot price. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but the long - term price is supported by cost and policy expectations [75]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price and Spread Data**: On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and hot - rolled coil 01, 05 contracts changed compared to the previous day. The rebar 01 - 05 and hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 month - spreads also had corresponding changes [4]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions on November 18, 2025, showed different changes compared to the previous day. The basis of different contracts also changed [8][10]. - **Ratio Data**: The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke for different contracts on November 18, 2025, remained unchanged compared to the previous day [17]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, 09 contracts increased compared to the previous day, and the basis of different contracts decreased [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: As of November 14, 2025, the daily average iron - water output increased week - on - week, the global and Australian - Brazilian shipments increased, and the 45 - port inventory increased [24]. Coal - Coke - **Market Analysis**: The short - term price adjustment is due to high spot prices, weak downstream acceptance, and reduced demand. The long - term price may rise due to supply restrictions and winter storage demand [30]. - **Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the coal - coke futures and spot prices, basis, month - spreads, and other data showed different changes compared to the previous day [32][33][34]. Ferroalloys - **Market Outlook**: Facing high inventory and weak demand, the cost center may shift down, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to trade weakly [42]. - **Data of Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: On November 18, 2025, the basis, month - spreads, and spot prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon showed different changes compared to the previous day [43][45]. Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Priced by cost, without production cuts, the valuation has no upward elasticity. The long - term supply is expected to remain high, and the inventory is high, but the price is supported by cost [52]. - **Price Data**: On November 18, 2025, the soda ash futures prices and month - spreads decreased compared to the previous day [52]. Glass - **Market Analysis**: Weak sales recently, high inventory in the middle stream puts pressure on the spot price. The 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, but the long - term price is supported by cost and policy expectations [75]. - **Price and Sales Data**: On November 18, 2025, the glass futures prices and month - spreads decreased compared to the previous day. The sales in different regions showed different trends in the recent period [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly, with the spot import of refined copper in China remaining at a loss. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is still low, and the instability of the US stock market has increased market concerns about liquidity. The overall global visible inventory is in a state of accumulation and is approaching recent high levels. Without sudden events, copper volatility may remain at a low level, and copper prices will show a high - level oscillating market [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. The alumina futures price repaired narrowly. The macro - sentiment continued to warm up, but the high price had an obvious suppressing effect on demand. The destocking of aluminum ingots was continuously blocked, and the proportion of molten aluminum continued to decline. Aluminum prices continued to be strong but had difficulty rising further. Aluminum alloy had more upward momentum, and the spread between refined and scrap aluminum was expected to narrow [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. The inventory pressure of primary nickel became prominent, and the LME inventory remained at 250,000 tons and was difficult to digest, putting great pressure on the market. Nickel prices continued to operate weakly, but attention should be paid to macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The Fed's internal division over whether to cut interest rates in December has increased, and the probability of a rate cut remains low. The downstream acceptance of high copper prices has increased, and the overall demand is slowly recovering. However, the high inventory may restrict the upward movement of copper prices in the future [1]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina futures price repaired narrowly. The end of the US government shutdown and the release of China's 14th Five - Year Plan suggestions have warmed up the macro - sentiment. However, high prices have suppressed demand, and the destocking of aluminum ingots has been blocked. Aluminum alloy has more upward momentum [1][2]. - **Nickel**: The inventory pressure of primary nickel is increasing, and the LME inventory is difficult to digest, putting pressure on the market. The price of nickel iron has declined, and the inventory of stainless steel has increased. Nickel prices are still weak, but beware of macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 17, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 86,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 585 yuan compared to November 14. The total inventory (weekly) decreased by 5,628 tons to 109,407 tons [3]. - **Lead**: On November 17, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 17,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan compared to November 14. The inventory (weekly) increased by 4,208 tons to 42,790 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On November 17, 2025, the Wuxi quotation was 21,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan compared to November 14. The electrolytic aluminum inventory (weekly) increased by 25,000 tons to 646,000 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: On November 17, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 120,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 925 yuan compared to November 14. The nickel inventory (weekly) increased by 3,386 tons to 40,573 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: On November 17, 2025, the main settlement price was 22,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4% compared to November 14. The social inventory (weekly) increased by 1,300 tons to 162,000 tons [6]. - **Tin**: On November 17, 2025, the main settlement price was 289,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5% compared to November 14. The inventory (weekly) of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 266 tons to 6,258 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts, including those related to spot premiums and discounts, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, covering data from 2019 - 2025 [7][14][23][29][35][42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the core logic of methanol revolves around supply - demand imbalance and inventory pressure. On the supply side, although domestic production has slightly decreased, the significant increase in imports has significantly boosted the total supply, and the expected resumption of subsequent installations will further increase the supply pressure. In the inventory segment, the port shows an obvious trend of inventory accumulation, and although there are differences in the inland area, overall de - stocking is difficult. High - level inventory continuously suppresses market sentiment. On the demand side, only the profits of some downstream sectors have slightly recovered, the weak pattern of the terminal has not been fundamentally improved, and the model of mainly purchasing on a just - in - time basis can hardly provide strong support for the market. The firm coal price at the cost side provides some support, but the overall industry profit has deteriorated, especially the losses of some processes have intensified, and the cost support is limited. In the short term, the market lacks clear positive drivers. It is recommended to wait and see, focus on subsequent import arrivals and changes in downstream restocking willingness, and avoid blindly gambling on price rebounds [3]. 3. Summary of Each Section Spot Market - **Regional Prices**: The current spot prices are 2047 in Inner Mongolia North Line, 1620 in Shaanxi Guanzhong, 1980 in Xinjiang (outside the region), 1945 in Shandong Linyi, 2160 in Taicang, and 2055 in Henan. Compared with the previous values, the prices in Inner Mongolia North Line, Shaanxi Guanzhong, Xinjiang (outside the region), Taicang, and Henan have decreased by 25, 0, 25, 20, and 5 respectively, while the price in Shandong Linyi remains unchanged [1]. - **Taicang Transaction Price Range**: The transaction price ranges in Taicang from November to December are as follows: 2045 - 2055 in early November, 2035 - 2065 in mid - November, 2045 - 2075 in late November, 2075 - 2105 in late December [3]. Futures Market - **Contract Prices**: The current prices of MA2601 and MA2605 are 2055 and 2163 respectively, with a decline of 2.28% and 2.08% compared with the previous values [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Bullish, and the market trend is emerging) [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - PX: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] Report's Core View - The overall supply in the chemical market is relatively loose, and the demand shows a mixed trend. Some products are affected by factors such as device maintenance, overseas market trends, and seasonal demand changes, and their prices and market trends vary [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contracts of olefin futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The overall supply was loose, and the transaction was average. The demand for propylene had some support due to the resumption of some devices [2] - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures closed slightly higher. The supply of polyethylene was stable, but the demand was weakening. The spot of polypropylene showed signs of stabilizing [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene rose strongly in the morning and then fell in the afternoon. The overseas gasoline trend was strong, but the rebound height should be viewed with caution due to weak downstream profits [3] - The main contract of styrene futures closed significantly higher. The overseas market was strong, but the future supply was expected to increase [3] Polyester - Affected by aromatics blending for gasoline, the prices of PX and PTA rebounded. However, considering the weakening chemical demand and uncertain US demand, a cautious bullish view was taken [5] - The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly, with supply growth pressure. A bearish view was maintained in the medium - term [5] - Short fiber had no new investment pressure, but demand was expected to weaken. Bottle chip demand declined, and over - capacity was a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The main contract of methanol futures fluctuated at a low level. The port was accumulating inventory, and the short - term was under pressure, but the valuation was low [6] - The urea market was supported by the rumor of export quota release, and the short - term was expected to fluctuate in a range with a slightly upward price center [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC fluctuated within a narrow range. The cancellation of India's BIS certification had little impact, and the market was in a state of high supply and low demand [7] - Caustic soda showed a weak trend due to high supply pressure and insufficient downstream demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash showed a strong trend. The cost increased, and the short - term price was difficult to fall, but there was an oversupply situation in the long - term [8] - Glass fluctuated within a narrow range. The mid - stream inventory was high, and the price increase was weak, but the decline space was also limited [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend analyses and viewpoints on various energy - chemical futures on November 12, 2025. Different futures have different trends, including high - level oscillations, weakening trends, and short - term support. For example, PX is relatively strong in the short - term due to overseas blending oil demand; MEG has a weakening price trend due to supply pressure; and rubber is in an oscillating state [11][13]. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Dynamics**: On November 11, PX prices fell, and the weakness in the PX spot market became more obvious. The floating spread of PX turned from a premium to a discount. MEG had a high planned arrival volume at major ports from November 10 - 16, and a large - scale MEG device was restarting. Polyester sales were weak on November 11 [6][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: PX and PTA have a trend intensity of 0, while MEG has a trend intensity of - 1 [11]. - **Views and Suggestions**: PX is relatively strong in the short - term due to overseas blending oil demand supporting the aromatics valuation. PTA is in a high - level oscillating state, and it is advisable to short the processing fee at high levels. MEG has a weakening price trend, and it is advisable to short the spread at high levels [11]. Rubber - **Fundamental Tracking**: The rubber futures market had small price fluctuations, and the spot market prices of some varieties changed slightly. The domestic production area is entering the reduction period, and the Qingdao inventory is in the seasonal accumulation period [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rubber is 0 [13]. - **Industry News**: The prices of raw materials in Thailand and domestic production areas are stable, and the domestic raw material prices are firm, but the inventory pressure suppresses the rubber price [14][15]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures prices of synthetic rubber decreased slightly, and the spot prices of some varieties increased slightly. The inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber decreased, and the raw material butadiene price was stable [16][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0 [18]. - **Industry News**: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber decreased, and the spot transaction improved, forming a short - term oscillating support pattern. In the medium - term, butadiene is in a weak state, driving the dynamic downward movement of cis - butadiene rubber [19]. Asphalt - **Fundamental Tracking**: The asphalt futures prices increased slightly, and the spot prices in some areas decreased slightly. The domestic asphalt production decreased slightly this week, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased [20][35]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of asphalt is 1 [28]. - **Market News**: The domestic asphalt production decreased slightly this week, the factory inventory in Shandong increased significantly, and the social inventory in Shandong decreased significantly [35]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Tracking**: The LLDPE futures price decreased, and the spot prices in some areas decreased slightly. The raw material oil price oscillated, and the monomer profit was compressed [36][37]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0 [38]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The raw material oil price oscillated, the monomer profit was compressed, and the downstream demand had rigid support, but the mid - and downstream inventory - holding willingness weakened after the price decline last week [37]. PP - **Fundamental Tracking**: The PP futures price decreased, and the spot market was slightly weak. The trade war, oil price, high supply, and low downstream profits jointly pressured the PP price [40][41]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of PP is - 1 [42]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: Multiple factors jointly pressured the PP price, and the weak demand and high supply will continue to suppress the price in the long - term [41]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Tracking**: The caustic soda futures price and the spot price in Shandong decreased. The high - production and high - inventory pattern of caustic soda continued, and the market continued to short the chlor - alkali profit [44][45][46]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0 [47]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The high - production and high - inventory pattern of caustic soda continued, and the demand and cost factors limited the rebound space of caustic soda [46]. Pulp - **Fundamental Tracking**: The pulp futures price oscillated, and the spot price increased slightly. The futures market was driven by funds and arbitrage behavior, and the actual demand did not increase significantly [51][52]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of pulp is 0 [51]. - **Industry News**: The pulp futures market was high - level oscillating, and the spot price increased, but the actual demand did not increase significantly. The supply pressure remained, and the downstream demand was weak [52][53]. Glass - **Fundamental Tracking**: The glass futures price decreased, and the spot price was stable. The domestic float glass market price was weakly sorted, and the downstream procurement was based on low - price selection [54]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of glass is 0 [54]. - **Spot News**: The domestic float glass market price was weakly sorted, and the downstream procurement was cautious [54]. Methanol - **Fundamental Tracking**: The methanol futures price decreased, and the spot price in some areas increased. The methanol market was regionally adjusted, and the supply was high while the demand was under pressure [56][58]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of methanol is - 1 [59]. - **Spot News**: The methanol spot price index increased slightly, and the market was regionally adjusted. The supply was high, and the demand was under pressure [58]. Urea - **Fundamental Tracking**: The urea futures price decreased, and the spot price was stable. The urea enterprise inventory increased slightly, and the production and sales were in a weak balance [60][61]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of urea is 0 [62]. - **Industry News**: The urea enterprise inventory increased slightly, and the short - term urea is expected to oscillate. The domestic fundamental pressure is large, but the downward driving force is weakened by policies [61][62]. Styrene - **Fundamental Tracking**: The styrene futures price decreased, and the profit margin improved slightly. The contradiction in the styrene market is not significant, and the pure benzene is in a weak pattern [63][64]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of styrene is 0 [63]. - **Spot News**: The contradiction in the styrene market is not significant, and the pure benzene is in a weak pattern. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [64]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Tracking**: The soda ash futures price increased slightly, and the spot price was stable. The comprehensive supply of soda ash decreased slightly, and the downstream demand was general [66]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soda ash is 0 [67]. - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market oscillated, and it is expected to be stable and oscillating in the short - term [66]. LPG, Propylene - **Fundamental Tracking**: The LPG and propylene futures prices had small fluctuations, and the spot prices of some varieties changed slightly. The PDH and MTBE operating rates increased [71]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of LPG and propylene are 0 [75]. - **Market News**: The CP paper prices of propane and butane changed slightly, and there are many PDH and LPG device maintenance plans [76][77]. PVC - **Fundamental Tracking**: The PVC futures price decreased, and the spot price continued to decline. The PVC market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the export may slow down [79]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of PVC is - 1 [80]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The PVC market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the export may slow down. The trend still has pressure [79]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The fuel oil futures price decreased, and the low - sulfur fuel oil futures price increased slightly at night. The high - and low - sulfur spread of the outer - market spot rebounded slightly [82]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are 1 [82]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions changed slightly [82]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Tracking**: The container shipping index (European line) futures prices had different trends, and the freight rates of different routes changed. The SCFIS of the European and US - West routes increased, while the SCFI decreased [84]. - **Trend Intensity**: No trend intensity is provided for the container shipping index (European line). - **Freight Index**: The freight rates of different routes changed, and the future shipping schedules may be dynamically adjusted [84][87].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [2] - Ferromanganese: Oscillating strongly [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating strongly [4] 2. Core Views - Glass has large supply - demand contradictions, high inventory, and weak long - term demand due to the approaching end of the consumption peak season and the downturn in the real estate industry [1] - Soda ash has supply - demand contradictions, with downstream rigid demand having resilience, but high inventory suppresses prices and de - stocking pressure persists throughout the year [1] - Ferromanganese enterprises are in continuous losses, with high production and inventory. Its price is expected to resonate with the black series and maintain a wide - range low - level oscillation [3] - Ferrosilicon has high production and inventory, weakening demand, and large inventory pressure. Although costs are rising, prices are still suppressed [3] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass - Market Analysis: The glass futures market oscillated downward yesterday, with a significant increase in trading volume and open interest. Spot prices were stable with a slight increase, and downstream buyers mainly made purchases as needed [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Supply - demand contradictions are large, inventory is high, and long - term demand is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to changes in glass production lines [1] - Strategy: Oscillating weakly [2] Soda Ash - Market Analysis: The soda ash futures market oscillated upward yesterday. Downstream buyers showed strong wait - and - see sentiment and mainly made low - price rigid - demand purchases [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Supply - demand contradictions remain. Downstream rigid demand has resilience, but high inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to supply and cost changes [1] - Strategy: Oscillating [2] Ferromanganese - Market Analysis: The ferromanganese futures main contract rose slightly yesterday. At the beginning of the week, the ferromanganese market had strong wait - and - see sentiment, waiting for new steel procurement guidelines. The price in the northern market was 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5580 - 5620 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Ferromanganese enterprises are in continuous losses, but production remains at a medium - high level, and enterprise inventory has reached a five - year high. The price is expected to resonate with the black series and maintain a wide - range low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to manganese ore cost support and regional policies [3] - Strategy: Oscillating strongly [4] Ferrosilicon - Market Analysis: The ferrosilicon futures main contract rose slightly yesterday. The ferrosilicon market had little fluctuation, and the market mainly focused on order fulfillment. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in the main production areas was 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade ferrosilicon was priced at 5700 yuan/ton [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Ferrosilicon has high production and inventory, weakening demand, and large inventory pressure. Although costs are rising, prices are still suppressed. Attention should be paid to cost changes in coal and electricity prices and regional policies [3] - Strategy: Oscillating strongly [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global crude oil market is in a state of continuous inventory accumulation, and geopolitical uncertainties are causing oil prices to continue to fluctuate. The chemical industry is expected to be volatile, and investors should approach it with a range - bound mindset [2][3]. - Different energy and chemical products have different trends. For example, crude oil is range - bound, some products like asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are weak, while low - sulfur fuel oil may be strong, and most chemical products are expected to fluctuate [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation of Crude Oil and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Global crude oil inventories have reached a new high for the year, and the US NGL inventory has reached a record high for the same period. The lack of short - term drivers is causing the market to continue to fluctuate [2]. - **Chemicals**: On Monday, chemicals slightly stabilized within a limited range. Ethylene glycol started to accumulate inventory, while pure benzene and styrene both saw inventory reductions. PX and PTA are the strongest in the chemical sector, but it is still difficult for them to outperform crude oil [3]. 3.2 Outlook for Each Product - **Crude Oil**: Short - term drivers are lacking, and the market will continue to oscillate. The increase in global inventory shows supply pressure, but the reduction in refined oil inventory pressure and strong crack spreads support demand. OPEC+ is cautious about increasing production [8]. - **Asphalt**: Spot prices are falling, and the futures price is fluctuating. After the OPEC+ increase in production and the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict, the price has broken through an important support level, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a weak and volatile state. Although the Palestine - Israel conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and demand is still weak [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Refined oil is strong, so low - sulfur fuel oil may run strongly. However, it faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [11]. - **PX**: Cost changes are limited, and the market is affected by sentiment and funds. The fundamentals are generally stable, with strong supply and demand, and it is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - **PTA**: Driven by the upstream, the center of gravity has shifted upward. There is no unexpected reduction in supply, and it is expected to run slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - **Pure Benzene**: The port has resumed inventory accumulation, and it is running weakly. The spread between pure benzene and naphtha is at a low level in recent years, and the upward drive is currently insufficient [14][15]. - **Styrene**: There is still a risk of over - inventory, and it is oscillating weakly. The new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and the pressure on the cost side of pure benzene is increasing [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply - demand and cost support are in a tug - of - war. It will maintain a low - level range - bound operation in the short term, with significant upward pressure [17][18]. - **Short - Fiber**: The cost is strong, but demand is weak, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is expected to follow the upstream market and the processing fee may be compressed [21][22]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is passively following the rise of raw materials. The processing fee has a stronger support at the bottom [23][24]. - **Methanol**: High inventory is suppressing the market, and overseas disturbances are not significant. It is oscillating and consolidating [25]. - **Urea**: Export information has boosted the spot market, but downstream transactions are cautious. The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: Downstream transactions have increased, but the support from maintenance is limited. It is oscillating [27]. - **PP**: Production is still at a high level, and it is oscillating [28]. - **PL**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and it is oscillating [29]. - **PVC**: Weak fundamentals are suppressing the market. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to whether the cost can support the market [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations. It is oscillating, and the price may be stable [32]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spreads**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.25 with a change of 0.01, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 18 with a change of 18 [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each product has its own basis and warehouse receipt situation. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 26 with a change of - 28, and the number of warehouse receipts is 7690 [35]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is 177 with a change of 49 [37]. 3.4 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on November 10, 2025, shows that the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index all have positive growth rates [278]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on November 10, 2025, has a daily increase of 0.35%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.39%, a 1 - month increase of 1.85%, and a year - to - date decrease of 5.45% [279].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, crude oil is likely to continue oscillating as it lacks both short - term supply - demand and geopolitical drivers. After the Venezuelan situation develops, there may be an opportunity for a high - level short position this year. Among the energy and chemical products, polyester is hyped for supply cuts. Styrene has short - term supply - demand improvement but significant medium - term supply pressure. Methanol has clear medium - term upward drivers and can be considered a long - position core variety [1]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Logic: From this year to the first quarter of next year, the pressure of crude oil supply surplus is still significant. However, due to the low - level inventory and the delay of the expected supply shock, combined with the digestion of previous short - term geopolitical events, it will likely oscillate until new variables emerge. Pay attention to the Venezuelan situation for a high - level short - selling opportunity [3]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a medium - term downward structure on the daily line and a short - term oscillating structure on the hourly line. It oscillates during the day. The hourly cycle strategy suggests waiting and seeing [3]. Styrene - Logic: Recently, with more maintenance, the operating rate has dropped to the lowest in the same period in recent years, but the production is still at the highest in the same period. Although the inventory is in the seasonal destocking stage, the destocking rate is lower than in previous years. In the medium term, the situation is still pessimistic, especially in the first quarter of next year [5]. - Technical Analysis: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly line. It oscillates during the day, with signs of short - position profit - taking. The upper short - term pressure is at 6345. It is recommended to take profit actively when geopolitical risks reappear and look for short - position re - entry opportunities after the daily - line rebound [8]. Rubber - Logic: Since August, the downward trend of rubber has been less smooth than that of synthetic rubber. The supply pressure of natural rubber is not obvious in the rainy season in Southeast Asia since October. The key is to focus on the driving effect of synthetic rubber [10]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a medium - term downward structure on the daily line and a short - term downward structure on the hourly line. It rebounds with reduced positions today, but the downward structure remains unchanged, and the upper short - term pressure is at 15170. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [11][13]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: The main driver is the cost - end butadiene. Although the current inventory has not increased significantly, the high supply pressure of butadiene in the medium term will still be prominent. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions and wait for a high - level short - selling opportunity after the crude oil rebound [16][18]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a medium - term downward structure on the daily line and a short - term downward structure on the hourly line. It rebounds with reduced positions today, and the upper short - term pressure is at 10500. It is recommended to take profit actively when geopolitical risks reappear and look for short - position re - entry opportunities after the daily - line rebound [18]. PX - Logic: There are few contradictions in polyester itself, but after the industry development symposium, there are many rumors of polyester industry production cuts, and the market has been trading with increasing positions. Pay attention to the realization of expectations [22]. - Technical Analysis: It has a short - term upward structure on the hourly line. It rises with increasing positions today, and the lower short - term support is at 6715. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [22]. PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, there are few contradictions in polyester itself, and pay attention to the realization of production - cut rumors [24]. - Technical Analysis: It has a short - term upward structure on the hourly line. It rises with reduced positions today, and the lower short - term support is at 4620. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [24]. PP - Logic: After the commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant, the supply pressure increases, and the downstream demand recovery is limited. Pay attention to the cost - end crude oil drive [27]. - Technical Analysis: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly line. It oscillates during the day, and the upper short - term pressure is at 6530. It is recommended to take profit actively when geopolitical risks reappear [27]. Methanol - Logic: The current high - supply, high - import, and high - inventory situation continues, and the market is still in the bottom - finding stage. For short - sellers, it is not advisable to chase short positions. For long - buyers, there are medium - term long - entry opportunities when the short - term structure changes and specific events occur [32]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a medium - term and short - term downward structure on the daily line. It rebounds after hitting a new low today, and the upper short - term pressure moves down to 2150. It is recommended to take profit on short positions at 2150 and look for long - entry opportunities after the short - term structure reverses [32]. PVC - Logic: The supply remains high, the domestic real - estate demand collapses, and the social inventory has reached the highest level in history. There is no upward driving force [35]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a medium - term downward structure on the daily line and a short - term downward structure on the hourly line. It oscillates during the day, and the upper short - term pressure moves down to 4640. The hourly - cycle short - position strategy can be held according to the technical analysis [35]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The supply is at a high level, and the supply pressure increases with new capacity. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [37]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a medium - term and short - term downward structure on the daily and hourly lines respectively. It oscillates near the pressure level during the day, and the upper short - term pressure is at 3950. It is recommended to take profit actively when geopolitical risks reappear [37]. Plastic - Logic: After the commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant, the supply pressure increases, and the downstream demand in the peak season is weak. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [39]. - Technical Analysis: It shows a medium - term and short - term downward structure on the daily and hourly lines respectively. It oscillates during the day, and the upper short - term pressure is at 6850. It is recommended to take profit actively when geopolitical risks reappear [39]. Soda Ash - Logic: The pattern of high supply and high inventory continues, and the downward driving force remains unchanged. There is a rebound today due to rumors of some enterprises' production suspension [44]. - Technical Analysis: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly line. It oscillates during the day, and the upper short - term pressure is at 1245. The 15 - minute cycle structure turns bullish, and the hourly level shows resistance to decline. It is recommended to hold the remaining short positions cautiously with 1245 as the profit - taking level [44]. Caustic Soda - Logic: The pattern of high supply and high inventory continues, and there is no upward driving force in supply - demand [45]. - Technical Analysis: It has a short - term downward structure on the hourly line. It oscillates during the day, and the upper short - term pressure is at 2400. The hourly - level strategy is to wait and see [45].