证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 策略周评 20250628 指数突破新高后，市场怎么走？ 2025 年 06 月 28 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 近期市场呈现三大现象 现象一：沪指"三连阳"创年内新高后，资金急于寻找理由，但找到的理 由似乎都不足以解释这轮上涨。 现象二：上周（6/16-6/20，下同）路演交流中，明显感受到机构投资者偏 谨慎，港股部分本土及海外资金在今年新消费和医药行情中都有踏空。 现象三：情绪急剧反转，"三根阳线改变信仰"。上周投资者倾向落袋为安， 待回调再介入，但市场快速上涨后又转为乐观。 ◼ 核心解释框架：波动率的回归交易 怎么去解释近期市场的这三大现象？投资者们总是习惯于在市场上涨后， 从基本面中寻找能够解释走势的原因，然而这些原因似乎又都不够充分， 不足以支撑起股市的上行。事实上，真正导致本轮上涨的，是大家普遍低 估的一个要素——波动率。我们认为，本周（6/23-6/27，下同）沪指的"三 连阳"，本质上是波动率回归交易的结果。周一收盘时，上证指数 30 个交 易日的年化波动率降至 18.2%，创下近十年来新低，甚至低于 2018 年。市 场极端低波的状态，才是本轮 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news indicates that the rare earth market is experiencing a general price increase for oxide products, with separation companies optimistic about future market conditions [1] - Strategic minor metals are expected to see a continuous upward price trend due to resource scarcity and growing demand from the new energy sector, benefiting companies with resource and technological advantages [1] - The non-ferrous metal industry is anticipated to expand its prosperity from precious metals, represented by gold, to industrial metals, represented by copper, supported by a weak dollar and ongoing overseas monetary easing [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, the non-ferrous metal industry reported a revenue growth of 7.9% year-on-year and a significant net profit increase of 68.2%, while capital expenditure declined by 7.3%, indicating a notable improvement in industry profitability [1] - The CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index, which tracks representative listed companies in the non-ferrous metal sector, reflects the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal industry in the A-share market, covering various metal resources such as copper, aluminum, and lead-zinc [1]

东吴策略 三根阳线后，市场展望 20250625 摘要 市场情绪显著转为乐观，投资者仓位普遍偏低，对 3,500 甚至 3,600 点 抱有期待，但这种情绪转变更多源于仓位结构而非基本面。 上证指数波动率创新低预示着市场波动即将增加，中东局势缓和、美联 储降息预期及阅兵等因素共同推动了近期市场上涨。 金融股在近期上涨中扮演了指数助推器的角色，但其上涨空间可能有限， 后续成长股预计将占据优势，这与弱美元周期逻辑相符。 美元周期对国内市场风格切换产生重要影响，弱美元背景下成长股表现 更佳，需关注美元走势及人民币汇率对结汇数据的影响。 看好成长股行情，金融股的助推作用可能接近尾声，泛科技板块如 AI 硬 件、机器人、固态电池、脑机接口和数字货币等有望轮动表现。 军工板块具备持续性基础，若能突破前高将吸引资金追入，可能贯穿 7 月份行情，建议低仓位者适当增仓，高仓位者继续持有。 创新药和新消费板块短期内表现可能不佳，不建议追逐，而地产和周期 性行业如煤炭、钢铁等处于底部，若有政策催化剂可能迎来上涨。 Q&A 最近市场情绪变化的主要原因是什么？ 最近市场情绪变化主要源于几个因素。首先，上周内地和香港的机构投资者普 遍持 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the outlook for the A-share market in the context of a weakening US dollar cycle and its implications for various sectors and policies [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Weak Dollar Cycle**: The weakening of the US dollar is becoming evident, influenced by multiple factors including the expanding US fiscal deficit, which is projected to worsen to 7% by 2026. This trend is expected to positively impact the A-share market [1][2]. 2. **A-share Market Performance**: Historically, during weak dollar periods, the A-share market has shown strong performance, particularly in consumer sectors, with significant gains in non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and finance [1][4]. 3. **New Policy Cycle**: Since September 2024, several favorable policies have been introduced, including guidelines for medium- and long-term funding and new regulations for mergers and acquisitions, which are expected to support financial asset prices [1][5]. 4. **Global Liquidity Impact**: The global liquidity easing cycle has a significant effect on the A-share market. The period from 2019 to 2021 saw a bull market driven by global liquidity, while a shift to negative liquidity in 2022 led to a bear market [1][6]. 5. **Current Monetary Policy Trends**: The global monetary policy remains accommodative, with expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The European Central Bank has also been aggressive in its rate cuts, while the People's Bank of China is expected to follow suit [1][7]. 6. **Foreign Investment Sentiment**: There has been a notable shift in foreign investment sentiment from bearish to bullish regarding Chinese assets, driven by confidence in China's fiscal and monetary policies and the rise of Chinese technological hard assets [1][3][8][9]. 7. **Market Expectations and Catalysts**: The market is currently facing pessimistic expectations regarding export demand and economic deflation. However, potential positive influences include structural fiscal policies and a possible resolution of the US-China trade conflict [1][10][11]. 8. **Market Trends and Performance**: The A-share market is expected to experience a period of volatility followed by upward movement, supported by the weak dollar trend, policy support, and overall liquidity improvement [1][12]. 9. **Key Catalysts for Market Breakthrough**: For the market to break through current resistance levels, key catalysts such as unexpected improvements in global fundamentals, domestic policy implementation, and breakthroughs in emerging industries are necessary [1][13]. 10. **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term outlook for the A-share market remains optimistic, with a projected annualized return of 8.64% over the next three years. A strategic allocation of 60% in equity assets is recommended [1][14][15]. 11. **Investment Focus Areas**: Key investment areas for the second half of the year include artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, and the rise of new consumer trends [1][16]. Additional Important Content - The call emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving geopolitical landscape, particularly the US-China trade relations, as it could significantly impact market dynamics and investor sentiment [1][3][11].

又到了开盘必读的时间了，老规矩，还是从宏观开始。 本周最重要的事情明确锁定在即将在伦敦举行的中美高级别会谈。 从近期通话情况来看，此次谈判类似一个月前瑞士会晤，来的突然，但结果可能会超预期。不过通话时 长才90分钟，说明我们和对面仍处于试探阶段，还得下面双边好好谈。 在我眼里，当前中美贸易博弈模式已经发生了根本改变了。 原来，是"明牌对决"，互相加关税。 现在，是逐步转向以芯片、稀土为代表的产业链博弈与底牌对抗。 川普天天发文说稀土，充分表现出对稀土供应的极度焦虑。 没办法，谁让我们控制全球约70%的稀土产量，掌握92%的加工市场份额呢？ 不是只有美国人卡我们脖子，我们也能卡美国脖子。 美国人因为拿不到稀土，心里着急得很，没完没了地针对我们，又是不卖发动机，又是各种 芯片制裁。就是希望我们赶紧松手，再不松手放行，美欧几个车厂就要被迫停产了，更要命 的是军工方面，一旦稀土库存用完了，导弹也造不出来了。 考虑到美欧企业当前稀土库存紧张，美国试图在巴西、澳洲等国家重建稀土供应链至少需要1.5~2年时 间，因此这张牌还能好好打。 这次打完电话之后给美方出口稀土，也说的 整体而言，谈判大概率有利好释放，不管是能谈成放松 ...