1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The black metal market is in a state of oscillation, with different sub - sectors showing varying trends. There is no strong driving force for a significant rebound in the black metal sector in the short - term, and investors should adopt a cautious and wait - and - see approach, making specific trading decisions based on different varieties [5][62][111] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Steel - **Supply**: Tends to be bearish. Long - process steel mills have profit, and short - process profit is unstable. Overall production is expected to remain stable with a slight decline, and large - scale production cuts are unlikely without administrative requirements [5] - **Demand**: Neutral. There is a slight improvement in demand, and exports remain strong. However, the market is worried about the weakening of demand expectations, and the upward price drive is not strong [5] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The total inventory level is low, and the seasonal inventory reduction is slowing down. The industry is in an active de - stocking state [5] - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. The basis is stable, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. As of Friday, the rb2510 basis in the East China (Hangzhou) region was 58, an increase of 7 from the previous week [5] - **Profit**: Bearish. Long - process production has profit, while short - process production profit is unstable, and the production cut amplitude has increased slightly [5] - **Valuation**: Neutral. There are thin profits in the industrial chain, with relatively low relative valuation and room for compression in absolute valuation [5] - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. The real estate market has declined further, and the market has low expectations for incremental policies [5] - **Investment View**: Wait - and - see. There is no strong driving force for a rebound in the black metal sector in the off - season, and the basis structure of futures at a discount to spot can be used as a reference for basis trading [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, conduct rolling hedging and manage positions, and consider appropriate inventory rotation; for arbitrage, short - term long the spread between hot - rolled coils and threaded steel; for basis trading, consider short - term basis trading [5] 3.2. Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Neutral. The apparent demand for five major steel products has shown resilience, and the daily average hot - metal production has slightly increased. The profitability of steel mills is fair, and the hot - metal production has strong resilience in the off - season [62] - **Coking Coal Supply**: Neutral. Domestic coal mines are in a state of mixed shutdown and resumption. Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a medium - low level, and the shipping coal market sentiment has slightly improved [62] - **Coke Supply**: Neutral. Coke production has continued to decline, and although coking profits are shrinking, the overall profits of coke enterprises are still good considering by - product revenues [62] - **Inventory**: Bearish. Downstream enterprises continue to maintain low inventory levels, and there are differences in coal mine data. As the end of the month approaches, the short - term supply disturbances may subside [62] - **Basis/Spread**: Bearish. The fourth round of coke price cuts has been initiated, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, leading to an increase in basis trading [62] - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mills have good profitability, and although coking profits are shrinking, the overall situation of coke enterprises is still acceptable [62] - **Summary**: Bearish. Affected by the Israel - Palestine conflict and improved industrial data, the black metal sector has been strong, but the divergence between the futures and spot markets of coking coal and coke is large. It is recommended that industrial customers conduct hedging, and ordinary investors wait and see [62] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, industrial customers should actively conduct basis hedging; for arbitrage, long the spread between the September and January contracts of coking coal [62] 3.3. Iron Ore - **Supply**: Bearish. Iron ore shipments are seasonally increasing, and the arrival pressure will gradually materialize. The marginal increase in supply will relieve the pressure on near - month contracts [111] - **Demand**: Bearish. Steel mill hot - metal production has slightly increased and remains at a relatively high level. Steel demand has shown resilience in the off - season, but the market is still waiting for a decline in downstream steel demand [111] - **Inventory**: Bearish. Port inventory has slightly decreased this period, but the subsequent inventory of ports and ships at anchor will continue to increase [111] - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mill profits are still high, and hot - metal production can remain at a high level in the short - term [111] - **Valuation**: Neutral. Hot - metal production is at a high level, and the short - term valuation is relatively neutral [111] - **Summary**: Neutral. The slight decline in hot - metal production has led to a transition from slight inventory reduction to slight inventory accumulation in port inventory. If the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, steel mill production cuts are necessary [111] - **Investment View**: Oscillation [111] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short at high prices; for arbitrage, wait and see [111]

Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [6] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [6] - Aluminum alloy: Neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is affected by geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East, with energy prices rising and downstream acceptance poor. The alumina market has a continuous decline in spot market transactions, and the supply is expected to be in excess. The aluminum alloy market is in the off - season, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [3][5]. Summary by Directory Aluminum Price and Market Data - On June 19, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,770 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract opened at 20,650 yuan/ton, closed at 20,585 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton or - 0.24% from the previous trading day [1]. - The trading volume was 143,884 lots, an increase of 8,282 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 175,674 lots, a decrease of 22,949 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - As of June 19, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 449,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 344,950 tons, a decrease of 2,050 tons from the previous trading day [1]. Market Analysis - The spot market is affected by geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East. The supply side has no negative factors in China, but there is a risk of production cuts at the Rio Tinto electrolytic aluminum plant in Australia. The consumption side shows marginal weakness, and the inventory reduction rate slows down. There is a condition for continuous squeezing of positions in China under the current low - inventory situation [3]. Alumina Price and Market Data - On June 19, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,160 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,175 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,215 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton [2]. - The alumina main contract opened at 2,926 yuan/ton, closed at 2,901 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.1% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 250,405 lots, a decrease of 209,382 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 300,995 lots, an increase of 926 lots from the previous trading day [2]. Market Analysis - The spot market transactions have a continuous decline. The electrolytic aluminum plants have stable long - term supply, and the spot procurement frequency is reduced. The alumina plants have no great sales pressure under long - term supply guarantee. The supply has increased with the resumption of production of long - term overhauled capacity and the release of new capacity in North China. The cost of alumina plants' procurement is conservative, and the supply is expected to be in excess [4][5]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Market Data - On June 19, 2025, the Baotai civil aluminum scrap purchase price was 15,300 yuan/ton, the mechanical aluminum scrap purchase price was 15,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 19,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - The aluminum alloy social inventory was 23,800 tons, a weekly increase of 1,500 tons, the in - factory inventory was 82,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 2,100 tons, and the total inventory was 106,700 tons, a weekly decrease of 600 tons [2]. Market Analysis - It is the off - season for aluminum alloy consumption. The futures price fluctuates with the aluminum price. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the cost supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5]. Strategies Unilateral - Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Neutral [6]. Arbitrage - Shanghai Aluminum positive spread arbitrage; Long AD11 and short AL11 [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is in a trading range, and it is advisable to seize hedging opportunities at the upper limit of the range. The rebound height of finished steel is relatively limited, and the market will enter a period of tug - of - war. It is recommended to use the volatile market to rotate inventory for spot goods [5]. - For coking coal and coke, the decline in coking coal auctions has slowed down, and the futures are at a premium to the spot. The market is in a state of indecision. Industrial customers can actively participate in selling hedging, while single - side trading can wait for a clearer situation. In the medium - to - long - term, the bottom of coking coal has not been confirmed [6]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, their fundamentals are stable and follow the steel market. Their prices are expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel tenders [7]. - For iron ore, the overall weak trend remains unchanged, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Futures Market Data** - On June 16, 2025, for far - month contracts (RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, JM2601), the closing prices were 2985.00 yuan/ton, 3101.00 yuan/ton, 675.00 yuan/ton, 1392.50 yuan/ton, and 810.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.78%, 1.04%, 0.52%, 2.35%, and 3.05%. For near - month contracts (RB2510, HC2510, I2509, J2509, JM2509), the closing prices were 2990.00 yuan/ton, 3104.00 yuan/ton, 704.50 yuan/ton, 1371.00 yuan/ton, and 795.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.98%, 1.07%, 0.21%, 1.90%, and 2.84% [3]. - On June 16, 2025, the cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits, spot prices, and basis data for various varieties were also provided, along with their changes [3]. **Steel Market** - On Monday, the spot and futures prices rebounded slightly, but the willingness to sell spot goods increased, and the price rebound was hesitant. Overseas, the Iran situation may have an indirect impact on the coal market in the capital market, but its influence on the spot market is weak. Domestically, the steel spot market remains in a state of weak supply and demand. The US tariff increase on steel - based household appliances and the suspension of domestic home appliance national subsidy policies have increased the supply - demand pressure in the hot - rolled coil market. It is recommended to hedge at the upper limit of the range and rotate inventory for spot goods [5]. **Coking Coal and Coke Market** - In the spot market, the decline in coking coal auctions has slowed down, and port prices are weak. In the futures market, the black chain index has strengthened, and coking coal led the rise. Macroscopically, domestic policies are mainly for bottom - support, and overseas disturbances are numerous. Industrially, steel demand is seasonally weak, and steel production has decreased. Coking coal inventories at the mine mouth continue to accumulate, but supply is affected by safety and environmental issues. The futures are at a premium to the spot, and industrial customers can participate in selling hedging [6]. **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese Market** - For ferrosilicon, production has decreased slightly, but direct demand has weakened, and cost support has declined. For silicomanganese, supply has increased from a low level, demand has weakened, and cost support has also weakened. Their prices are expected to be under pressure [7]. **Iron Ore Market** - The overall weak trend of iron ore remains unchanged. Ore shipments are gradually increasing, and port inventories have shifted from a slight decline to a slight increase. The black market is entering the off - season, and downstream pressure is intensifying. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy [8]. **Investment Strategies** - For steel, maintain a wait - and - see attitude for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity for hedging and open - position management, and rotate inventory for spot goods. For coking coal and coke, industrial customers should actively participate in selling hedging. For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, buy put options at high prices [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recent continuous decline in urea prices is due to cost collapse from falling coal prices and lagging domestic agricultural demand caused by weather [1] - Export and domestic agricultural demand still support urea prices, and the possibility of a significant further decline is low as it is the top - dressing season for crops like corn and upstream inventory pressure has decreased [1] - Short - term strategy is to wait and see, and mid - term strategy is to go long on dips [1] Summary by Related Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures price: UR01 in Shandong closed at 1696 yuan/ton, down 0.41%; UR05 at 1718 yuan/ton, up 0.06%; UR09 at 1761 yuan/ton, down 0.68% [1] - Domestic spot prices: prices in Shanxi, Henan, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged, while in Hebei, it rose 0.54% to 1860 yuan/ton [1] Basis and Spread - Shandong spot - UR basis was 152 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; 01 - 05 spread was - 22 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [1] Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1180 yuan/ton and 850 yuan/ton respectively [1] Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged, while melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased, with Shandong down 1.03% and Jiangsu down 1.80% [1] Important Information - Urea futures main contract 2509 opened at 1800 yuan/ton, reached a high of 1803 yuan/ton, a low of 1755 yuan/ton, closed at 1761 yuan/ton, and settled at 1774 yuan/ton, with a position of 231078 lots [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The recent continuous decline of urea is mainly due to two reasons: the cost collapse caused by the continuous decline of coal prices and the lag in demand due to the delayed release of agricultural demand in some domestic regions because of weather conditions [1]. - Export and domestic agricultural demand still support the price. As it is still the peak season for top - dressing of crops such as corn and the upstream inventory pressure has significantly reduced, the possibility of a further sharp decline in urea prices is low. The risk to consider is the change in export policies [1]. - The strategy suggestion is to wait and see in the short - term and go long on dips in the medium - term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1703 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from 1705 yuan/ton; UR05 closed at 1717 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from 1721 yuan/ton; UR09 closed at 1773 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from 1784 yuan/ton [1]. - Domestic spot prices: Shandong decreased by 0.53% to 1870 yuan/ton; Henan decreased by 0.54% to 1850 yuan/ton; other regions such as Shanxi, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. - Basis and spreads: The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 6 yuan/ton to 153 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton to - 14 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream cost: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan, Shanxi remained unchanged at 1180 yuan/ton and 850 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and the prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1]. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1787 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1793 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1764 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1773 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1778 yuan/ton, and the position was 225127 lots [1].

Report Information - Analyst: He Hui, Energy and Chemical Team, including Guo Jianfeng, Guo Yanpeng, and Li Qian [2] - Company: Zhonghui Futures Co., Ltd. - Date: May 30, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In May, the domestic and overseas macroeconomic situation did not improve significantly, and the commodity market was weak. The soda ash futures market was also in a downward trend, searching for a bottom. [3] - Soda ash is facing a situation of over - capacity, insufficient demand, and cost collapse. In the short term, it is difficult to find supply - demand drivers, while in the long - term, it is anchored to natural soda ash cost and demand growth rate. [3] Market Review Futures Market - As of May 30, the SA2509 contract closed at 1,190 yuan/ton, with a monthly change of - 12% (a decrease of 165 yuan) [6] 现货市场 - In May, the prices of heavy soda ash were differentiated, with most prices decreasing by 50 yuan/ton, a change ranging from - 5.1% to 3.2% [6] Basis - In May, the spot price of soda ash was weak, while the futures price was even weaker, resulting in a stronger basis. The basis of the main SA509 contract (against Shahe heavy soda ash) was 40 points, with a basis rate of 3.3% [8] Inter - month Spread - The SA09 - 01 contract spread was 2 points, changing from negative to positive, showing a flat - water structure. The SA01 - 05 contract spread was - 52 points, indicating a weaker expectation for the far - month contract [11] Term Structure and Inter - commodity Spread - The soda ash futures market changed from a contango structure to a near - month back flat - water structure, compressing the downward space. The FG - SA09 contract spread was about - 200, and the long - glass short - soda ash spread had a profit of 100 points from - 300 [13] Supply Analysis Device Maintenance and New Capacity - Currently, the maintenance devices of soda ash plants are gradually restarting, and new capacities are being put into production one after another. In 2025, the total planned new capacity is 590 tons/year [17][18] Operating Rate - In May, the comprehensive operating rate of soda ash decreased significantly. Currently, the national operating rate is 78.57% (a month - on - month decrease of 10.87%), with the ammonia - soda process operating rate at 71.41% (a month - on - month decrease of 15.71%) and the combined - soda process operating rate at 76.54% (a month - on - month decrease of 10.58%) [20] Production - In May, the weekly average production of soda ash was 70.32 tons, with the estimated monthly production at 311.41 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. The weekly average production of heavy soda ash was 38.38 tons, with the estimated monthly production at 170 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [31][34] Demand Analysis Glass Melting Volume - Currently, the daily melting volume of float glass is 15.77 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.25%. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 9.88 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 13% [39] Total Melting Volume - In May, the average daily total production of float glass and photovoltaic glass was 25.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.9% [42] Supply - demand Gap of Heavy Soda Ash - In May, the estimated monthly demand for heavy soda ash was 158.4 tons, and the supply - demand surplus was 11.55 tons, still in a state of oversupply [43] Inventory Analysis Total Inventory - Currently, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 162.43 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94% and a year - on - year increase of 98.52%. The available inventory days are 13.47 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43 days and a year - on - year increase of 6.6 days [51] Inventory of Heavy and Light Soda Ash - Currently, the inventory of heavy soda ash is 80.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 76.95%. The inventory of light soda ash is 81.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79% and a year - on - year increase of 125.6% [54] Cost and Profit Analysis Cost - Currently, the production cost of the ammonia - soda process is 1,283 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.39%. The production cost of the combined - soda process (double - ton) is 1,610 yuan/ton (75% single - ton cost is 1,208 yuan), a month - on - month decrease of 2.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.1% [58] Profit - Currently, the production profit of the ammonia - soda process is 67.2 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 49.7 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 85.28%. The production profit of the combined - soda process is 215 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40.5 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 78.49% [60] Trading Strategies Single - side Strategy - Currently, the main 09 contract has fallen below the combined - soda process cost of 1,200 yuan/ton. Technically, it shows a short - position arrangement of moving averages. Maintain a bearish view, dynamically track the pressure level of the 20 - day moving average, with a reference range of 1,050 - 1,250 [4] Arbitrage Strategy - Currently, the 9 - 1 spread of soda ash is near 0, almost at par. Considering the seasonal maintenance in summer and the planned new natural soda ash capacity at the end of the year, participate in the 9 - 1 positive spread. In terms of inter - commodity spreads, the FG - SA09 contract spread is about - 200, and the long - glass short - soda ash spread can still be held in the short term, and stop profit when the spread narrows to - 150 [4] Hedging Strategy - Currently, the inventory of soda ash plants is at an absolute high level. Upstream enterprises can pay attention to the short - hedging opportunities of the 09 contract when the futures price is at a premium or at par with the spot price, around 1,200 - 1,250. Downstream glass enterprises can conduct long - hedging when the futures price is lower than the spot delivery cost [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Recent continuous decline of urea, with the main contract falling below 1800, is due to cost collapse from continuous coal - price decline and lagging demand caused by weather - related delays in agricultural demand in some domestic regions [1] - Export and domestic agricultural demand still support the price, and as it is the top - dressing season for crops like corn and upstream inventory pressure has significantly reduced, the possibility of further sharp decline in urea price is low [1] - The risk to consider is the change in export policy [1] - The trading strategy is to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips in the medium term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 in Shandong decreased by 8 yuan/ton (-0.47%), UR05 decreased by 8 yuan/ton (-0.46%), and UR09 decreased by 6 yuan/ton [1] - Domestic small - particle spot prices in Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] - Upstream coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged [1] - Downstream prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan and melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 8 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 remained unchanged [1] 3. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of urea futures main contract 2509 was 1794 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1810 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1773 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1784 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1791 yuan/ton, and the position was 219438 lots [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous decline of urea prices is mainly due to cost collapse caused by the continuous decline of coal prices and the lag in demand due to the delayed release of agricultural demand in some domestic regions because of weather conditions. However, exports and domestic agricultural demand still support the price, and the possibility of a further sharp decline in urea is not high. The recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short - term and go long on dips in the medium - term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: UR01 in Shandong closed at 1713 yuan/ton on May 28, down 23 yuan/ton (-1.32%) from May 27; UR05 closed at 1729 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-1.09%); UR09 closed at 1790 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-1.32%) [1]. - Domestic spot prices: In Henan, the price was 1860 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.54%); in Jiangsu, it was 1900 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton (1.06%). Prices in other regions remained unchanged [1]. - Basis and spread: The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 151 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton from May 27; the spread of 01 - 05 was -16 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream cost: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1180 yuan/ton and 850 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2540 yuan/ton respectively. The price of melamine in Shandong was 5340 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-0.56%), and remained unchanged in Jiangsu at 5550 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1813 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1816 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1781 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1790 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1793 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 223758 lots [1]. Trading Strategy - Short - term: Wait and see; Medium - term: Go long on dips [1].

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the article is the recent decline in coking coal futures, with the primary contract dropping by 2.27% to 1421.0 yuan, indicating a bearish outlook for the market [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Shenyin Wanguo Futures suggests a bearish approach to coking coal, citing high iron water levels and declining future demand as key factors [1] - The firm notes that the cost of thermal coal has collapsed, leading to downward pressure on coking coal prices, and anticipates a potential price drop following a failed second round of price increases [1] - The article highlights that steel mills are experiencing seasonal demand peaks, which may lead to negative feedback in the market if high iron water levels do not sustain [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Hualian Futures indicates that domestic coal mines are maintaining normal production levels, resulting in continued supply pressure [1] - The report mentions that while coking enterprises are seeing slight profit increases, their willingness to purchase coking coal remains low, leading to a decline in coking coal inventories [1] - The overall supply-demand structure remains loose, with expectations of weak demand from end-users and a significant drop in steel mill inventories [1] Group 3: Price Levels and Recommendations - Shenyin Wanguo Futures identifies key support and resistance levels for coking coal, with JM09 focusing on 850 as support and 920 as resistance, while J09 looks at 1350-1400 for support and 1500 for resistance [1] - Hualian Futures recommends a strategy of selling on rallies, with reference pressure levels set at 950 for coking coal and 1600 for coking coal futures [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides views and strategies for various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, log, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, PVC, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and container shipping index (European line). The overall market shows a mixed trend, with some commodities expected to be weak, some to be volatile, and some to have potential investment opportunities [2]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost collapse may lead to a post-holiday price decline. Suggest a long PX and short SC strategy. Supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, and the de-stocking rate may slow down [8]. - **PTA**: Cost support is weak. Suggest a long PTA and short SC strategy. Supply is decreasing while demand is increasing, and the de-stocking pattern continues. Consider a 6 - 9 positive spread operation [9]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is weak. Suggest a long PTA and short MEG strategy. Supply will continue to increase, and port inventory de-stocking is difficult [9]. Rubber - Expected to trade in a range. The market shows neutral trend strength, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and price differentials [10][11]. Synthetic Rubber - Expected to face downward pressure and trade in a range. Although the valuation provides some support, the driving force is downward due to the decline in crude oil prices during the holiday [14][16]. Asphalt - Expected to weaken following oil prices, with the crack spread likely to continue to recover. Current production capacity utilization has decreased, and inventory shows a mixed trend [17][29]. LLDPE - The trend is weak. Trade war impacts and high supply with weak demand are the main factors. New capacity is expected to be put into operation, and demand from downstream industries is limited [30][31]. PP - Prices have slightly declined, and trading volume has decreased. The market is weakly sorted, and downstream demand is flat after pre-holiday stocking [34][35]. Caustic Soda - Expected to trade in a range in the short term but face pressure later. Demand is in the off-season, and supply reduction is needed to balance the market [37][38]. Pulp - Expected to trade in a wide range. Port inventory is at a relatively high level, and downstream demand has not improved significantly [42][44]. Log - Expected to trade weakly in a range. The number of incoming ships and the volume of incoming goods have decreased [47][51]. Methanol - Expected to operate weakly. The market is in a pattern of high domestic production, high imports, high profits, and gradually increasing inventory [52][55]. Urea - Expected to trade in a range with increased support at the lower end. Production enterprise inventory may decline, and the futures market is expected to be volatile [57][58]. Styrene - Expected to trade weakly. The pure benzene market is in a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, and downstream negative feedback is expected to be transmitted [60][61]. Soda Ash - The spot market shows little change. The market is expected to be stable to slightly strong in the short term, with stable production and weak downstream demand [63][65]. LPG - The support from crude oil is weakening. Pay attention to the inter-month positive spread strategy. The market shows neutral trend strength, with changes in production capacity utilization [67][74]. PVC - Expected to trade weakly. High production and high inventory structure are difficult to alleviate in the short term, and the market is under pressure from supply and demand [76][77]. Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The external spot price has dropped significantly, and the short-term trend is expected to weaken further. - **Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has slightly corrected following crude oil, and the spread between high and low sulfur in the external market has widened [80]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Expected to trade at a low level in a range. Hold a light short position in the 10 - 12 reverse spread [82].