Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main tone of "moderate easing" of monetary policy remains unchanged. Although the central bank removed the wording of "choosing the right time to cut reserve requirements and interest rates" in the second - quarter regular meeting, the policy stance is still supportive [6]. - Treasury futures are expected to remain volatile. The removal of the mention of reserve requirement and interest rate cuts in the central bank's policy meeting led to a correction in the bond market, but considering the macro - fundamentals and policy signals, there is an upper limit set by the fundamentals and a lower limit set by policy intervention for the risk - free interest rate [7]. - For coking coal and coke, the recent price increase is due to the fermentation of the "supply gap" sentiment. However, once the price rises, the resumption of production will become the main contradiction, and imported coal will also ease the shortage of domestic coal. It is recommended to short on rebounds with light positions [9]. - For US soybeans, the planted area is lower than expected, but the quarterly inventory is higher than expected. The inventory being higher than expected is slightly bearish for near - month contracts, while the lower - than - expected area is bullish for far - month contracts. The weather in the production areas will be the focus from July to August [10]. Summary by Directory General Information - The report is from国泰君安期货, dated July 1, 2025 [2][8] Treasury Futures - The central bank's 2025 second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed the mention of "choosing the right time to cut reserve requirements and interest rates", reducing the market's expectation of further cuts in the third quarter and causing fluctuations in the bond market on Monday. In the medium term, inflation may bottom out in the second half of the year, but the upward amplitude and rate are limited, so the view of treasury futures remaining volatile is maintained [7] Coking Coal and Coke - The recent synchronous increase in spot and futures prices is due to the fermentation of the "supply gap" sentiment. The high level of hot metal production and the replenishment demand for scarce resources by downstream enterprises, as well as the improvement in the trading of some coal types with the recovery of thermal coal prices, have contributed to the price increase. However, the market's expectation of long - term production capacity has not changed. Once the price rises, the resumption of production will become the main contradiction, and the reduction of the third - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian coal will ease the shortage of domestic coal. It is necessary to be vigilant about the impact of sentiment before seeing the stabilization and recovery of production data, and the strategy of shorting on rebounds with light positions is maintained [9] US Soybeans - The planted area data shows that corn is 95.2 million acres (market average expectation: 95.35 million, previous year: 90.59 million), soybeans are 83.38 million acres (market average expectation: 83.65 million, previous year: 87.05 million), and wheat is 45.48 million acres (market average expectation: 45.43 million, previous year: 46.07 million). As of June 1, the national soybean inventory was 1.008 billion bushels (market average expectation: 0.98 billion, previous year: 0.97 billion). The higher - than - expected inventory is slightly bearish for near - month US soybean contracts, while the slightly lower - than - expected area is bullish for far - month contracts. The weather in the production areas will be the focus from July to August [10] Various Commodities - Gold: Geopolitical cease - fire; trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [17][21] - Silver: Continuing to rise; trend strength is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [17][21] - Copper: Positive sentiment, firm price; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [23] - Zinc: Fundamentals are relatively bearish; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [26] - Lead: Strong in the medium term; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [29] - Tin: Tight current situation but weak expectations; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [32] - Nickel: The support from the ore end has weakened, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [36] - Stainless steel: Inventory has slightly decreased marginally, and the steel price has recovered but with limited elasticity; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [36] - Lithium carbonate: The contradiction of warehouse receipts has been alleviated, and it is running weakly; trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [40] - Industrial silicon: Upstream factories have started to resume production, and the futures price may correct; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [43] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the actual spot trading situation; trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [43] - Iron ore: Expectations are fluctuating, and it is in a wide - range shock; trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [46] - Rebar: In a wide - range shock; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [48] - Hot - rolled coil: In a wide - range shock; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [49] - Ferrosilicon: In a wide - range shock; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [53] - Silicomanganese: In a wide - range shock; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [53] - Coke: In a wide - range shock; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [56] - Coking coal: Affected by news, in a wide - range shock; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [57] - Thermal coal: Daily consumption is recovering, and it is stabilizing with shocks; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [61] - Logs: The main contract is switching, and it is in a wide - range shock; trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [65] - Rubber: Running in a shock; trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [68] - Synthetic rubber: Running in a short - term shock [14] - Asphalt: Running in a narrow - range shock [14] - LLDPE: Mainly in a short - term shock [14] - PP: Spot price is in a shock, and trading is light [14] - Caustic soda: There is still pressure in the later stage [14] - Pulp: Running in a shock [14] - Glass: The price of original sheets is stable [14] - Methanol: Running in a short - term shock [14] - Urea: Under shock pressure [14] - Styrene: In a short - term shock [14] - Soda ash: The spot market has little change [14] - LPG: Running in a short - term shock [14] - PVC: The trend is weak [14] - Fuel oil: The weakness persists, and short - term fluctuations are decreasing [14] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Mainly in an oscillating adjustment trend, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rise [14] - Container shipping index (European line): Temporarily on the sidelines, pay attention to the price - holding situation in late July [14] - Short - fiber: In a short - term shock [16] - Bottle chips: In a short - term shock, go long PR and short PF [16] - Offset printing paper: Running in a shock [16] - Palm oil: The improvement of the near - end fundamentals in the producing areas is limited [16] - Soybean oil: The old - crop inventory of US soybeans is high, and the new - crop area is slightly reduced [16] - Soybean meal: After the report is released, US soybeans rise slightly, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound and oscillate [16] - Soybean: May rebound and oscillate [16] - Corn: Running in a shock [16] - Sugar: Strong in the domestic market and weak in the overseas market [16] - Cotton: Lacks effective driving force, and the futures price rises and then falls [16] - Peanut: There is support at the bottom [16]

Group 1 - The report maintains a tactical benchmark view on A-shares, citing the elimination of policy uncertainty and a decline in risk-free interest rates as factors that enhance market performance [4][11][13] - The tactical benchmark view on government bonds is upheld, with the report noting an imbalance between financing demand and credit supply, which limits the downward movement of interest rates [4][11][13] - The tactical allocation view on gold is downgraded to benchmark, as geopolitical tensions have eased and market risk appetite has rebounded, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][11][13] - A tactical underweight view on the US dollar is maintained, with concerns over fluctuating policies and persistent fiscal deficit issues impacting the dollar's credibility [4][14] Group 2 - The report highlights that the recent market sentiment is stable, with expectations for economic recovery and a favorable environment for equity assets due to declining risk-free rates and high trading volumes [11][12] - The report indicates that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and improved China-US relations have boosted global risk appetite, suggesting structural opportunities within equity markets [11][12] - The report emphasizes that the current macroeconomic environment limits the potential for significant downward adjustments in bond yields, as the market has already priced in the prevailing interest rate levels [11][12]

Market Overview - The overall trend of AH stocks in the past six months can be summarized as "gathering market sentiment amid divergence, with gradual valuation recovery amid fluctuations" [1] - Since the pandemic, the stock market has been in a long-term adjustment due to risk control and the downturn in the real estate cycle [1] - After September 24, there has been a noticeable change in market style, with effective policies boosting confidence and altering the characteristics of a shrinking market [1] Investment Opportunities - The Chinese stock market has a high allocation value globally, with the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 dividend yield remaining above 1.5%, indicating strong appeal for large incremental funds like insurance [1][2] - The continuous decline in bank deposit interest rates is expected to drive savings into the stock market as fixed deposits mature [1] - The return of overseas funds to the Chinese market is evident, with Hong Kong stocks showing significant recovery since the beginning of the year [2] Economic Context - The controllable economic downturn risk suggests that the current dividend yield is unlikely to experience a significant decline [2] - The major reasons for the significant pullback in A-shares since 2021 include economic downturn and deflation expectations, which are less pronounced compared to developed markets [2] - The stabilization of economic expectations is seen as a major positive factor for the stock market [4] Sector Analysis - Assets with strong earnings certainty and high dividend nature are expected to yield absolute returns, attracting low-risk preference funds [3] - Industries that are likely to see opportunities before the economic bottom is confirmed include innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, AI-related sectors, non-bank financials, and more [3] - Many downstream industries are gradually emerging from profit troughs due to price adjustments and technological breakthroughs, despite the year-on-year PPI hitting a new low [3] Conclusion - The risk-reward ratio in the stock market has become particularly evident after years of macro risks, with the current bottom position of the market not requiring a significant economic rebound for valuation recovery [4] - Patience and bottom-up research are essential for achieving favorable results in the current market environment [4]

Group 1 - The external environment has become increasingly uncertain in 2023, with fluctuating tariffs from Trump and a declining trend in domestic interest rates, leading to a focus on safe-haven assets in investment portfolios [1] - The 10-year government bond is viewed as a preferred investment choice for many investors due to its status as a benchmark for risk-free rates and its ability to cover a complete economic cycle [2] - The 10-year government bond ETF (511260) has shown consistent positive returns since its inception, with annual returns of 9.02%, 16.65%, and 25.06% over the past year, three years, and five years respectively, indicating stable performance [3][4] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond ETF offers multiple advantages, including flexibility with "T+0" trading, low management fees of approximately 0.2% per year, and transparency in holdings [4] - The trading volume and scale of the 10-year government bond ETF have been increasing, with an average daily trading volume of 1.127 billion yuan and a net inflow of over 4.2 billion yuan in recent days, outperforming the market [4] - The fund manager anticipates a potential trend in the bond market in the third quarter, driven by economic cycles in both domestic and U.S. markets, presenting investment opportunities in the 10-year government bond ETF [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the interconnectedness of various asset classes in financial markets, highlighting the recent unusual behavior of U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar's status as a safe haven, alongside the rise of Bitcoin as an alternative investment [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yields - U.S. Treasury yields are inversely related to bond prices, which explains the recent rise in yields as investors sell off U.S. debt [3]. - The yields serve as a benchmark for global asset pricing, influencing the valuation of various risk assets based on their credit and liquidity risks [6][7]. - Changes in U.S. Treasury yields reflect market expectations regarding the U.S. and global economic outlook, with rising yields indicating anticipated economic growth and inflation [8]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - U.S. Treasury yields are closely tied to Federal Reserve monetary policy, with changes in the federal funds rate directly impacting short-term yields [9][10]. - Market expectations of future Fed actions, such as rate hikes or cuts, are quickly reflected in Treasury yield movements, affecting the entire yield curve [11]. Group 3: Impact on Currency and Capital Flows - The relative level of U.S. Treasury yields significantly influences the value of the dollar, as higher yields attract international investors seeking better returns [12][13]. - Conversely, lower yields may lead to capital outflows, putting downward pressure on the dollar [14]. Group 4: Asset Valuation and Investment Decisions - Rising U.S. Treasury yields enhance the attractiveness of fixed-income assets, potentially leading to a shift of funds from equities and real estate to the bond market [14]. - In stock valuation models, Treasury yields are used as a discount rate, where increasing yields can lower the present value of future earnings, potentially leading to declining stock valuations [14]. Group 5: Importance of Monitoring Treasury Yields - For participants in global financial markets, understanding and tracking U.S. Treasury yield dynamics is essential for effective trading and investment strategies [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the positive outlook for the Chinese A/H stock market following the release of a comprehensive financial policy package aimed at stabilizing market expectations and supporting economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Policy Measures - The financial policy package includes a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, a 10 basis points (bp) cut in policy interest rates, and a 25 bp reduction in public housing loan rates, along with a 500 billion yuan initiative for consumer services and elderly care [2]. - Additional measures include a 300 billion yuan increase in loans for technological innovation and upgrades, which are expected to enhance liquidity and lower financing costs [2]. Group 2: Market Stability and Investor Confidence - The policy aims to stabilize investor confidence and promote a coordinated investment and financing ecosystem in the capital market, enhancing the long-term value of equity investments [3]. - The article highlights that the combination of monetary easing and structural reforms will lead to a systematic decline in the discount rate for the Chinese stock market, making investments more attractive [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The article recommends focusing on sectors that will benefit from the declining risk-free interest rates and increased market participation, particularly in financial services and high-dividend stocks such as brokerage firms, insurance companies, and banks [3][4]. - It also suggests investing in emerging technologies with low exposure to external demand, including internet, media, gaming, domestic supply chain products, and pharmaceuticals [4].