A股马年首个交易日迎来普涨，多数核心指数的涨幅都在1%～2%。从2010年以来的统计数据来看，春节假期过后，A股短期实现"开门红"的概率较高。 不过，今年春节假期期间，在港股市场大热的AI大模型、机器人，以及假期数据不错的消费板块今天在A股"意外"遇冷，真正领跑的却是石化、建材、基础 化工、有色金属、煤炭、钢铁等一众"老登"资产。 券商：春季行情仍将延续 今日，A股市场呈现普涨格局，多数核心指数的涨幅都落在1%-2%的区间，其中上证指数上涨 0.87%，收于 4117.41 点，重回 4100 点上方。相比之下，科技 板块走势相对偏弱，科创50、科创100指数分别下跌0.34%、1.55%。 | 指数 | T-20 | T-10 | T-5 | T+5 | T+10 | T+20 | T+ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 万得全A | -1.10% | 0.41% | 1.43% | 1.77% | 2.71% | 4.06% | 4.83 | | 上证指数 | -0.86% | 0.44% | 1.01% | 1.04% | 1.6 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market opened high on February 24, with significant gains in sectors such as precious metals, oil and gas energy, optical module CPO, PCB concepts, and port shipping [1] - The A500 Enhanced ETF and A500 ETF Fund saw increases of 1.63% and 1.38% respectively, indicating strong market performance [1] - Notable stocks included China Merchants Energy, which reached a new high, and several others like Runze Technology, Sanhuan Group, and Beijing Junzheng, which rose over 10% [1] Group 2 - The central bank has indicated a "flexible and efficient" approach to monetary policy, suggesting that tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions will be used based on economic conditions [1] - The focus on "efficiency" implies a need for effective and targeted policy measures to support economic growth while mitigating risks such as capital turnover and local government debt [1] - According to Industrial Securities, the A-share market has released some risk following adjustments in overseas assets, and a new upward trend is anticipated post-holiday [1] Group 3 - Dongfang Caifu Securities noted that the current micro liquidity environment and domestic policy expectations are favorable, suggesting a positive outlook for the spring market [2] - Historical seasonal effects indicate that the period between the Spring Festival and the National People's Congress is typically supportive of risk appetite, creating a favorable market environment [2] - The market's recent fluctuations are seen as creating space for the second phase of the spring rally, with growth/cyclical, small-cap, and high P/E ratio stocks expected to outperform [2]

Group 1 - The spring market trend after the holiday is expected to continue, with price increases being a core focus for the first quarter [12] - The Ministry of Commerce emphasizes the importance of restoring global semiconductor supply chains and urges cooperation between China and the Netherlands [1] - The National Energy Administration plans to implement a new energy system and various energy planning initiatives by 2026, focusing on strategic projects and small-scale projects [2] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has taken action against Tianfeng Securities for illegal financing and information disclosure violations related to Wuhan Contemporary Technology Group [6] - The CSRC has also initiated an investigation into Qunke Technology for misleading statements during its overseas IPO process [7] - The market experienced significant declines, with major U.S. indices dropping, and notable movements in technology stocks, including Nvidia and Apple showing slight gains while others fell [9][11]

Core Insights - The report suggests adopting a "steady first, with growth in mind" approach to maintain gains in the second half of the spring market and to reserve space for future positioning [2][15] - The spring market of 2026 began on December 17, 2025, driven by favorable policies and early capital allocation, leading to a strong performance in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving 17 consecutive days of gains [9][13] - The convertible bond market experienced rapid growth followed by volatility, with median prices and conversion premiums reaching historical highs, indicating a significant reduction in the safety cushion of bonds [9][10] Market Trends - Historical data from 2017 to 2025 indicates that the market typically experiences a "rise then fall" pattern from the Spring Festival to the National People's Congress (NPC) [13][14] - The report highlights that during the period from the Spring Festival to the NPC, the market is likely to see a "spring surge," with small-cap growth stocks outperforming, particularly in TMT and high-end manufacturing sectors [13][14] - As the NPC approaches, the market may shift towards defensive sectors like pharmaceuticals and utilities, with high valuations in convertible bonds facing potential compression due to stock adjustments [13][14] Investment Strategy - The report recommends a balanced investment strategy, transitioning from aggressive profit-seeking to balancing returns and risks as the market moves into the NPC and Q1 earnings preview phase [15] - It emphasizes the importance of selecting convertible bonds with solid performance and reasonable pricing, while also considering high-quality, high-priced convertible bonds with clear growth prospects [15] - The report identifies sectors such as AI computing, semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, and post-cycle industries like consumption and real estate as favorable for convertible bonds due to improving supply-demand dynamics and favorable policy catalysts [15]

2026 年 02 月 22 日 策略类●证券研究报告 节后春季行情可能延续，科技和周期占优 定期报告 投资要点 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 分析师 张欣诺 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910525110001 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 2026.2.13 主动偏股基金加仓有色、通信，减仓医药 2026.2.12 震荡波动呈现收敛，新股板块向上活跃周期 或依然在途-华金证券新股周报 2026.2.8 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 25 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 节前市场担忧的风险因素在假期期间基本未发生。（1）春节期间出行和消费数据 偏好，对经济和盈利的担忧未出现。一是春节期间出行数据同比增长明显。二是春 节期间消费数据也偏好。（2）美国通胀回落，流动性收紧的担忧未出现。一是美 国 1 月 CPI 同比增速从 2025 年 12 月的 2.7%下滑至 2.4%，同时 1 月非农时薪同 比增速继续下滑至 3.71%，通胀和就业市场继续降温，美联储年内大概率继续降息。 二是美国 ...

Group 1 - Western Securities launched an online service from February 16 to 23, featuring 15 conference calls, with a focus on the AI industry, which gained significant attention during the holiday period [1] - Over 100 brokerage roadshows were scheduled during the Spring Festival, with more than 20 online roadshows from February 16 to 18 and over 80 roadshows from February 19 to 23, indicating a strong demand for research services [3] - Smaller brokerages have become the main players in holiday roadshows, using differentiated competition strategies to effectively reach target clients and meet the research needs of institutions holding stocks during the holiday [3] Group 2 - The surge in holiday roadshows is attributed to increased competition in the sell-side research industry amid a backdrop of reduced fees for public funds, with brokerage commission income declining significantly [4] - In the first half of 2025, total brokerage commission income fell by 33.98% year-on-year, with Western Securities experiencing a decline of over 20% and other firms like Open Source Securities seeing declines exceeding 40% [4] - Future industry developments suggest that large comprehensive brokerages will continue strategic investments in research, while medium-sized brokerages will intensify competition to offset the impact of declining fees [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently cautious, with a tendency for structural opportunities to emerge, particularly in sectors experiencing price increases, such as resource and innovative growth industries [5][14]. Market Trends - The A-share market typically exhibits a pattern of "weak before the holiday, strong after" based on historical trends [5][14]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has formed a significant upward channel since January 2025, with upper resistance levels identified at 3359 points (February 13, 2025), 3439 points (March 19, 2025), 3883 points (August 25, 2025), and 4025 points (October 30, 2025) [5][14]. - The lower boundary of this upward channel aligns with the 60-day moving average and the half-year line, currently situated between 3940 and 4000 points, which may provide strong support [5][14]. Future Projections - An important cyclical period is anticipated in August 2026, coinciding with various historical market milestones, which may influence market dynamics [6][15]. - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently broken above a long-term resistance level of 3730 points, establishing a bullish foundation for the market [6][15]. - The upward channel's lower boundary is expected to rise, potentially leading the index to approach historical gap levels from June 2015, specifically between 4456 and 4483 points [7][16]. Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has formed a triangular consolidation pattern since December 16, 2025, with upper resistance around 4150 points and lower support near 4060 points [8][17]. - The Shenzhen Component Index has established a large converging upward channel since October 2024, with significant resistance and support levels identified [8][17]. - The long-term outlook for the Shenzhen Component Index suggests a potential breakout, driven by economic transformation and the growth of new industries, indicating a possible "transformation bull market" [9][18].

Group 1 - The total scale of the Stock Connect holdings reached approximately 2.59 trillion yuan in Q4 2025, an increase of 54.06 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter [4][8] - The proportion of holdings in the main board increased by 1.04 percentage points, while the proportion in the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board decreased by 0.65 and 0.39 percentage points, respectively [4] - The proportion of holdings in cyclical, growth, and stable styles increased by 2.37, 0.08, and 0.05 percentage points, while consumer and financial styles decreased by 2.37 and 0.15 percentage points [4] Group 2 - The largest sectors by Stock Connect holdings in Q4 were new energy (17.78%, -0.12 percentage points), electronics (13.91%, -0.33 percentage points), and non-ferrous metals (7.18%, +1.96 percentage points) [8] - Non-ferrous metals, communication, and basic chemicals saw significant increases in holdings, while pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, and automotive sectors experienced notable declines [8][14] - The net inflow for non-ferrous metals was 24.872 billion yuan, for communication was 11.278 billion yuan, and for basic chemicals was 5.711 billion yuan, while pharmaceuticals saw a net outflow of 25.665 billion yuan [8] Group 3 - The sectors with the highest overweight ratios were new energy (11.34%), electronics (2.80%), and non-ferrous metals (2.56%), while the lowest were banking (-3.93%), oil and petrochemicals (-2.37%), and computers (-2.26%) [15] - The overweight ratios for non-ferrous metals, communication, and basic chemicals increased by 1.40, 0.47, and 0.29 percentage points, respectively, while those for pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, and banking decreased [15] Group 4 - Core assets and growth stocks such as Zhongji Xuchuang, China Ping An, and Siyuan Electric saw significant changes in foreign holdings, with the concentration of top five holdings decreasing [18] - The top three stocks by Stock Connect holdings were Ningde Times (254.343 billion yuan), Midea Group (77.049 billion yuan), and Kweichow Moutai (75.812 billion yuan) [18] - The largest net inflows were seen in Ningde Times (8.813 billion yuan), Luxshare Precision (5.737 billion yuan), and Weichai Power (5.124 billion yuan) [18] Group 5 - Stock Connect funds are expected to continue increasing their positions in core assets, technology, and cyclical sectors in Q1 2026 [21] - The ongoing Federal Reserve rate cut cycle may favor technology growth and certain cyclical sectors, attracting foreign capital [21] - The expected earnings growth in technology and cyclical sectors, along with favorable policies, may further enhance the attractiveness of these sectors to foreign investors [21][23]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the A500 ETF (512050) dropping by 0.88% and trading volume exceeding 10.9 billion yuan, leading its peers [1] - The market sentiment is influenced by risk aversion and profit-taking ahead of the Spring Festival, although the spring market trend is expected to continue with limited risks during the holiday [1] - The A500 ETF (512050) offers investors a convenient way to invest in core A-share assets, benefiting from low fees (0.2%), strong liquidity, and a large scale exceeding 40 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The A500 ETF tracks the CSI A500 Index, employing a dual strategy of industry-balanced allocation and leading stock selection, covering all 35 sub-industries [1] - The ETF is designed to integrate value and growth attributes, with a natural "barbell" investment characteristic, particularly overweighting sectors like AI, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy compared to the CSI 300 [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider related products such as the A500 ETF (512050) and the A500 Enhanced ETF (512370) [2]

Group 1 - Zhang Yidong has joined Guotai Junan and will serve as the head of the equity research department and chief economist, focusing on cross-border integration of research business [2] - Zhang Yidong is a highly influential strategist in the sell-side research field, with over 20 years of industry experience and multiple awards from New Fortune [2] Group 2 - The recent volatility in the COMEX gold futures market saw the RSI indicator reach a high of 89.46, followed by a significant price correction due to hawkish policy expectations after the nomination of Powell [3] - The long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact, driven by high debt levels in major economies and ongoing geopolitical tensions, with expectations of a loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve until 2026 [4] Group 3 - The recommendation to hold stocks during the holiday season aims to capitalize on potential market rebounds in the spring months of February and March, based on historical trends [5] - The overall short-selling ratio in the Hong Kong stock market is approximately 19%, with the Hang Seng Tech Index seeing a rise in short-selling activity to 21%, indicating a potential turnaround [6] Group 4 - Specific investment directions include focusing on technology sectors aligned with the "14th Five-Year Plan" and maintaining value assets while increasing exposure to cyclical industry leaders [8]