Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking sector in 2026, indicating a return to fundamental narratives supported by policy financial tools and asset expansion resilience [6][23]. Core Viewpoints - The banking sector is expected to stabilize net interest margins due to a concentrated repricing cycle of deposits, with structural risks anticipated to receive policy support [3][23]. - The report highlights two main investment themes: focusing on quality small and medium-sized banks and state-owned banks with defensive value [24]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Analysis - In November 2025, social financing (社融) grew by 8.5% year-on-year, with a monthly increment of 2.49 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations [10][9]. - The structure of social financing showed a decrease in RMB loans by 116.3 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating weak demand for credit [10][9]. - Government bonds decreased by 104.8 billion yuan year-on-year, while corporate direct financing increased by 170.2 billion yuan, with bond financing up by 178.8 billion yuan [10][9]. Loan Trends - Total RMB loans grew by 6.4% year-on-year in November, with a total of 390 billion yuan in new loans, reflecting a decline in both household and corporate loans [13][14]. - Household loans saw a significant drop, with short-term loans down by 178.8 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans down by 290 billion yuan [13][14]. - Corporate loans increased by 281.9 billion yuan, primarily driven by bill discounting [14][13]. Monetary Supply - M1 growth fell to 4.9% year-on-year, while M2 grew by 8.0%, with the gap between M2 and M1 increasing to 3.1% [20][21]. - New RMB deposits totaled 1.41 trillion yuan in November, a decrease of 760 billion yuan year-on-year, with declines across all categories including household and non-bank deposits [20][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality small and medium-sized banks such as Nanjing Bank, Hangzhou Bank, and Ningbo Bank, while also considering state-owned banks like Bank of Communications and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China for their defensive value [24][23].

来源：睿哲固收研究 11月社融存量增速持平于8.5% 11月新增社融2.49万亿，同比多增1597亿；较过去五年同期均值2.3万亿相比，今年11月新增社融规模与历史均值相差不算大，落在过去五年同期新增规模 的上沿。社融存量增速本月短暂持稳于10月水平，依然为8.5%。 表外融资是本月社融同比多增的主要贡献项之一，企业债券是本月社融多增的另一支撑项 11月表外融资项中的信托贷款、未贴现银票均同比多增，对社融形成支撑。2020年以来11月新增信托贷款规模均较10月回落，本月走势反季节性，或与近 期落地的新型政策性金融工具支持项目有关。此外，11月企业债券新增1788亿至4169亿，新增规模为2020年以来同期新高，是直接融资项目中唯一多增的 一项，也对社融形成支撑。 社融总量和信贷结构走势分化 虽然11月社融总体表现不差，但11月信贷仍然偏弱。其中企业部门信贷同比多增3600亿至6100亿，主要发力项是企业短贷和票融，企业中长贷同比少增； 居民部门信贷更是历史上同期首次负增长。 新增企业中长贷为2016年以来同期新低。今年企业部门信贷同比多增的原因之一在于2024年11月企业部门信贷基数较低，之二在于今年11月企 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core Viewpoints - Since Q3 2025, there has been a prevalent bearish sentiment in the bond market, with long - term bonds significantly adjusted and the term spread of ultra - long bonds notably widened. The current central economic work conference indicates that the current situation is still in a cycle of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected [2]. - The net financing scale of government bonds in 2026 may slightly expand, with the deficit rate likely to remain around 4%. Under debt resolution, the financing demand of urban investment and credit demand may continue to be weak [2]. - The importance of social financing growth rate may decline, and the future may gradually淡化 the total social financing target and shift more towards interest rate regulation. It is expected that the social financing increment in 2026 will be around 34 trillion yuan, and the social financing growth rate will gradually drop to about 7.3% [2]. - Currently, the conditions for a further reduction in policy interest rates may be met. It is recommended to patiently wait for the policy interest rate cut, and it is expected that the policy interest rate will be cut by about 20BP in 2026, with a possible 10BP cut in the first quarter [2]. - It is recommended to focus on the allocation value of 5Y bank capital bonds and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [3]. Summaries Based on Related Content Bond Market Situation - As of December 11, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds increased by 22BP compared to January 2, the yield of 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 38BP, and the yield of 5 - year commercial bank secondary capital bonds (AAA -) increased by 44BP. The "30Y - 10Y" treasury bond term spread reached 39BP on December 11, close to the upper limit of the [10,43]BP range since early 2023 [2]. Government Bond Financing - The central economic work conference's statement implies that the deficit rate in 2026 may remain around 4%, and the net issuance scale of government bonds may remain relatively stable. It is expected that the net financing scale of government bonds in 2026 will be about 14.5 trillion yuan, a slight increase year - on - year [2]. Social Financing - The central economic work conference did not mention the matching of social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level targets as in 2024. It is expected that the social financing increment in 2026 will be about 34 trillion yuan, and the social financing growth rate will gradually drop to about 7.3% [2]. Policy Interest Rate - The conditions for a policy interest rate cut may be met. The Fed cut interest rates by 75BP in the second half of the year, the Sino - US interest rate spread inversion has been significantly alleviated, the RMB exchange rate has changed from depreciation to a slight appreciation, the cost rate of banks' interest - bearing liabilities has declined steadily, and the economy is under downward pressure [2]. Bond Market Outlook - In 2026, the bond market may perform better than expected. It is expected that the policy interest rate will be cut by about 20BP in 2026, with a possible 10BP cut in the first quarter. In the long - term, the yield of 30Y treasury bonds is expected to fall below 2% [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - Currently, it is recommended to focus on the allocation value of 5Y bank capital bonds and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [3]

货币当局更新11月金融数据。 1) 社融新增24885亿，增速8.5%（前值8.5%） 2) 新增人民币贷款3900亿，增速6.4%（前值6.5%） 3) M2同比增长8.0%（前值8.2%），M1增速4.9%（前值6.2%） 核心观点 实体部门信贷超预期拉动下，社融降速放缓 十一月，社融新增24885亿，同比多增1597亿，超出wind平均预期。五大构成上，实体部门信贷、政府债、企业股票融资同比减少， 企业债融资、"非标"同比大幅多增。具体来看，当月企业债融资4169亿元（上年同期2381亿），其中产业债融资3784.77亿（上年同 期约2378.71亿），其贡献了企业债同比增幅的79%；"非标"融资2146亿（上年同期818亿），其中未贴现承兑汇票融资1490亿（上年 同期910亿），信托贷款844亿（上年同期91亿），委托贷款基本持平。同比少增部分，实体部门信贷同比少增1163亿，降幅较上月 明显收窄；政府债同比少增1048亿，主要受地方债的拖累。总体来看，当月社融新增超出市场平均预期，主要是实体部门信贷偏 强，其它项目则差距不大。 事件 十一月，在结构性工具的支持下，社融增速回落放缓，但趋势并未改变， ...

Economic Indicators - As of December 7, 2025, the ECI supply index is at 49.93%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.87%, up 0.01 percentage points[6] - The ECI investment index remains stable at 49.87%, and the consumption index is at 49.66%, up 0.01 percentage points[9] - The ECI export index is at 50.24%, unchanged from last week, indicating stable export performance[9] Financing and Monetary Policy - The ELI index is at -0.51%, up 0.10 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity[12] - New RMB loans in November are expected to be between 450 billion to 500 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 80 billion to 130 billion[15] - The total social financing scale in November is projected to be around 2.2 trillion, down from 2.33 trillion year-on-year, with a social financing growth rate expected to drop to 8.4%[15] Industrial Production and Consumption - The operating rate for full steel tires is 63.50%, up 0.17 percentage points, while the half steel tire rate is 70.92%, up 1.73 percentage points[17] - The average daily sales of passenger cars in the last week of November were 125,617 units, down 8,925 units year-on-year, with total retail sales for November at 2.263 million units, a 7% decline year-on-year[24] Export Performance - The total cargo throughput at monitored ports reached 28.6271 million tons in the last week of November, an increase of 8.43% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in export activity[35] - The South Korean export growth rate for November is recorded at 8.40%, up 4.80 percentage points from October[40]

基本面筑底回升，聚焦息差改善和风险演 绎 ——银行行业 2026 年度投资策略 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 2026 年银行板块有望回归基本面叙事：十五五开局之年，政策性金融工具加持下 资产扩张仍有韧性；仍处于存款集中重定价周期，支撑净息差有望企稳回升；结构 性风险暴露仍期待有政策托底。2026 年，保险行业将系统性执行 I9，公募考核新 规的中长期引导效应也有望显现，我们看好 2026 年银行板块绝对收益。建议关注 两条主线：1、基本面确定的优质中小行，相关标的：南京银行(601009，买入)、 杭州银行(600926，买入)、宁波银行(002142，买入)、上海银行(601229，未评 级)、渝农商行(601077，买入)；2、基本面稳健、具备较好防御价值的国有大行， 相关标的：交通银行(601328，未评级)、工商银行(601398，未评级)。 风险提示 经济复苏不及预期；房地产等重点领域风险蔓延；假设条件变化影响测算结果。 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 银行行业 行业研究 | 策略报告 ...

社融增速预计 8.5％，M1 增速保持相对高位 [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 2025 年 11 月社融前瞻 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2025-12-03 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 021-38003646 nijun@gf.com.cn 分析师： 林虎 SAC 执证号：S0260525040004 SFC CE No. BWK411 021-38003643 gflinhu@gf.com.cn -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 12/24 02/25 04/25 07/25 09/25 12/25 银行 沪深300 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | DocReport] [Table_ 相关研究： | | | --- | --- | | 银行行业:海外银行业如何化 | 2025-12 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views - Forecasts 2025 November new loans to be 450 billion yuan and social financing increment to be 2.15 trillion yuan; at end - Nov, M2 to reach 337.2 trillion, YoY +8.1%, new - caliber M1 YoY +5.6%, and social financing growth rate to be 8.4% [1] - November new loans may be less than the same period last year due to weak credit demand and banks' low motivation for credit issuance; future new loans may also be less year - on - year [2] - November M1 growth rate may decline, and M2 growth rate may slightly decline month - on - month [2] - Social financing growth rate may continue to decline, and it may drop to about 7.3% by the end of 2026 [2] - December bond market is promising, and the report is bullish on the bond market [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs New Loans - Predicts 450 billion yuan in new loans in November 2025, with individual loans +5 billion, corporate loans +35 billion, and non - bank inter - bank loans +5 billion; individual short - term loans - 5 billion, individual long - term loans +10 billion; corporate short - term loans +0 billion, corporate long - term loans +15 billion, and bill financing +20 billion [2] M1 and M2 - Predicts the new - caliber M1 growth rate at the end of November to be 5.6%, with a slight month - on - month decline; the M2 growth rate at the end of November to be 8.1%, with a slight month - on - month decline [2] Social Financing - Predicts 2.15 trillion yuan in social financing increment in November 2025, less than the same period in 2024; the growth rate at the end of November to be 8.4%, with a 0.1 - point month - on - month decline [2] Bond Market - Due to factors such as slow growth in bond fund scale and banks' and insurers' increased influence on bond market pricing, and considering factors like banks' lower liability costs and insurers' asset - liability duration gap, the report is bullish on the December bond market [2]

Monthly Performance - The banking sector increased by 2.99% from November 1 to November 28, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.4 percentage points, ranking second among 31 Shenwan first-level industries [1][6] - Institutional investors increased their holdings in bank stocks due to a stable improvement in fundamentals, shareholder buybacks, and expectations of valuation recovery [1][6] Valuation Trends - State-owned banks saw a significant increase in valuation, with their PB ratio rising from approximately 0.76X at the beginning of the month to 0.78X by the end, while the PB ratios for joint-stock banks and city commercial banks remained stable at 0.67X and 0.60X, respectively [1][9] - As of November 28, the overall PE ratio for the banking sector was 6.53 times, with a historical percentile of 56.18%, and the PB ratio was 0.56 times, with a historical percentile of 32.25% [21] Individual Bank Performance - Notable gainers included Bank of China (8.20%), China Everbright Bank (8.08%), China Construction Bank (5.81%), and Nanjing Bank (5.13%), while Qingdao Bank and rural commercial banks experienced significant declines [1][12] - The performance of banks with improved earnings and mid-term dividend payouts led to notable increases in their stock prices [1][12] Market Environment - The 10-year government bond yield rose from around 1.80% in early November to 1.84% by the end of the month, while the 1-year bond yield remained stable at approximately 1.40% [16] - The trading volume in the banking sector increased by 13.07% year-on-year, accounting for 1.65% of the total trading volume in the AB share market, although it decreased by 0.18 percentage points compared to the previous month [19] Social Financing and Credit Trends - In October, the social financing growth rate fell to 8.5%, with new social financing of 816.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.959 billion yuan [25] - The decline in credit supply was attributed to a shift in government bond issuance timing and a decrease in demand for consumer loans [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weak sentiment in the bond market persists, and it is waiting for the negative factors to materialize. The expectation of interest rate cuts within the year has weakened, and the improvement in inflation expectations continues to constrain the decline of Treasury bond yields. However, the current situation of the fundamentals and the capital market does not support a trend - like rebound in yields, so the bond market trend remains uncertain [6][70]. - Although the rumors of strict public - offering sales regulations and increased fund redemptions have intensified short - term fluctuations, preventive adjustments help release potential risks in advance, and regulatory statements have sent out signals to stabilize the market, so there is no excessive pessimism about the subsequent unilateral trend of the bond market [6][70]. - The current slope of the medium - and short - term end of the yield curve is relatively flat, and the long - term end is steeper. Curve trading may require event - driven factors such as interest rate cuts, inflation, or real - estate policies [6][70][71]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In November, the bond market did not continue the previous month's recovery trend. Near the end of the month, rumors of the upcoming implementation of public - offering sales regulations resurfaced, and market sentiment quickly weakened. As of the mid - day on November 28, the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL decreased by 0.12%, 0.25%, 0.48%, and 1.68% respectively within the month. As of the close on November 27, the IRR of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL were approximately 1.6325%, 1.6068%, 1.6707%, and 1.7541% respectively [5]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - The weakening of the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year and the improvement in inflation expectations continue to constrain the decline of Treasury bond yields. The current fundamentals and capital market situation do not support a trend - like rebound in yields, and the bond market trend is still uncertain with few high - certainty opportunities [6]. - With the public - offering sales regulations still undecided, the market at the end of the month is more dominated by investor behavior and sentiment. The rumors of strict regulations and increased fund redemptions have intensified short - term fluctuations. However, preventive adjustments help release potential risks, and regulatory statements have sent out signals to stabilize the market, so there is no excessive pessimism about the subsequent bond market [6]. - The current slope of the medium - and short - term end of the yield curve is relatively flat, and the long - term end is steeper. Curve trading may require event - driven factors [6]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral trading: Lightly bet on short - term rebounds, and a better window for going long may appear after the negative factors materialize [7]. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [7]. - Options: No recommendations [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Logic Analysis 3.2.1 "Weak Reality" Continues, Focus on Potential Expectation Gaps - In October, major domestic macro - economic indicators generally weakened. In terms of demand, in the investment sector, the single - month year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 12.2%, a decrease of 5.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the seasonally adjusted month - on - month growth rate was - 1.62%, a new low for the year. In the consumption sector, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in October slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9% [10]. - In the foreign trade sector, in October, China's export amount decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the import amount increased by 1.0% year - on - year, both falling short of expectations. The decline in export growth was related to the high base in the same period last year and the intensification of Sino - US trade disputes. The weakening of import growth reflected the weak domestic demand [11]. - On the production side, although there was still resilience, the year - on - year growth rate also declined. In October, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was 4.9%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, and the seasonally adjusted month - on - month growth rate was 0.17%, a new low for the year [11]. - The bond market has not fully priced in the weak fundamentals because it is not difficult to achieve the annual economic growth target, and the decline in indicators may be temporary. However, the continuous weakening of some domestic demand indicators since the second half of the year may indicate that the multiplier effect of previous policies is not obvious, and the self - repair ability of the domestic economy is weak. Geopolitical factors also cannot be ignored [12][15]. 3.2.2 Prices Continue to Recover, Inflation Expectations Are Optimistic - Price indicators continued to recover. In October, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of CPI were both 0.2%, an increase of 0.5 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month. The year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of core CPI both increased by 0.2 percentage points to 1.2% and 0.2% respectively. In October, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of PPI were - 2.1% and 0.1% respectively, an increase of 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month, and the month - on - month growth rate turned positive for the first time this year [21]. - The current recovery of CPI is driven by structural factors, and there may still be deflationary pressure. The high - frequency data shows that the upward momentum of industrial product prices is not strong, and price recovery may require demand - side policy support. Multiple factors may lead to the GDP deflator turning positive at least temporarily, which suppresses the performance of the bond market, especially long - term bonds [22][35]. 3.2.3 The Growth Rate of Social Financing Continues to Slow Down, and an Inflection Point in M1 Appears - In October, financial data was mediocre. New RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of about 280 billion yuan. The balance of loans increased by 6.5% year - on - year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The social financing scale was 815 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 597 billion yuan, and the year - on - year growth rate of social financing was 8.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [36]. - The slowdown in credit expansion affected deposit creation. In October, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the year - on - year growth rate of M1 was 6.2%, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, showing an inflection point [39][41]. - Weak financial data is favorable for the bond market, but the market has already priced in the weakness to a certain extent. The probability of the central bank increasing monetary policy due to weak financial data is not high. In November, the loan situation may improve, and the social financing scale may be supported, but the year - on - year growth rate of some financial indicators such as M1 may continue to slow down [49]. 3.2.4 The Central Bank's Support Remains, but It's Difficult for Fund Prices to Decline - In November, the market's capital supply and demand were generally balanced. As of November 27, DR001 and DR007 were 1.3740% and 1.4685% respectively, up 3.68bp and 1.06bp from the previous month. The central bank's attitude towards maintaining liquidity is unchanged, and the reverse - repurchase operation shows a peak - shaving and valley - filling characteristic, and the pace of "long - term money" injection is stable [55]. - The third - quarter monetary policy report of the central bank continues to have a relatively loose tone, but the expectation of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts within the year has further decreased. It is difficult for fund prices to decline, which restricts the decline of Treasury bond yields, especially short - term yields. The report may also imply that the upper limit of the 30 - year Treasury bond yield is around 2.25% [65][67]. 3.2.5 The Public - Offering New Regulations Are Uncertain, and Incremental Information Is Mostly Negative - In mid - to late November, some investors may have briefly speculated on the central bank's Treasury bond trading information in November, causing the TF and T contracts to perform relatively strongly. However, near the end of the month, rumors of public - offering sales regulations suppressed bond market sentiment. Incremental information such as potential mortgage interest subsidy policies, Sino - US leader phone calls, and rumors of the central bank's bond purchases falling short of expectations are relatively negative [68]. - If the mortgage interest subsidy policy is implemented next year with a large subsidy amount and wide coverage, it will be negative for the bond market in the long - term, but the short - term impact may be mainly on sentiment [68]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - The expectation of interest rate cuts within the year has weakened, and the improvement in inflation expectations continues to constrain the decline of Treasury bond yields. The current fundamentals and capital market situation do not support a trend - like rebound in yields, and the bond market trend remains uncertain. The public - offering sales regulations are uncertain, and short - term fluctuations are intensified, but there is no excessive pessimism about the subsequent bond market [70]. - The current slope of the medium - and short - term end of the yield curve is relatively flat, and the long - term end is steeper. Curve trading may require event - driven factors [70][71]. - In terms of operations, after the sharp decline in Treasury bond futures at the end of the month, short - term unilateral trading can moderately bet on oversold rebounds. In the long - term, it is reasonable to allocate some long positions in Treasury bond futures to hedge against macro - expectation gaps. In terms of arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [71].