2025年12月26日 09:04大盘指数"小阳碎步爬升"七连阳配合温和放量，强势但不亢奋。指数在收复均线交点3888与55日 均线3918之后运行稳定，涨停家数回升到八九十家的水位，赚钱效应扩散对场外资金有明显的吸引作 用。12月份的核心任务，是在21天节点进场后让利润奔跑，直到完成冲顶为止，并且在冲顶之后耐心准 备一年一度的春季行情。 09:09两市成交额温和放大，说明资金并未撤退，仍在以"边走边换手"的方式推进，站稳均线密集区和 趋势线密集区之后均线系统呈多头排列，上升通道保持完整，日线macd与kdj保持金叉，趋势良好就不 要乱想。 09:30盘面结构延续"主线恒强、支线轮动"的特征。科技硬件和有色金属轮流领涨，商业航天再度活 跃，无人机、无人驾驶、机器人、等方向活跃，资金聚焦较为明确；科技硬件涨的时候，有色金属相对 承压，属于前期上涨后的回吐与结构切换。 09:40在12月17日中午和12月18日上午科技硬件崛起的时候，天赢居建议跟随，但是在科技硬件已经大 涨两天之后，天赢居建议天友们关注有色金属钢铁，事实证明是正确的。12月25日下午的直播，天赢居 看到科技硬件大涨之后又提出了相同的观点，事实也再 ...

2026 年度中国期货市场投资报告 聚酯板块：原油低位下的供需博弈 聚酯产业链 内容提要： 张伟伟 商品分析师 从业资格证：F0269806 投资咨询证：Z0002792 TEL：0516-83831165 E-MAIL：zhangweiwei @neweraqh.com.cn 近期报告回顾 成本重心下移，供需支撑不 足，聚酯板块整体承压（季 报）202509 成本驱动博弈供需错配，关 注品种间结构性机会（半年 报）202507 缺乏趋势行情，把握结构性 机会（年报）202412 供需错配 聚酯板块走势分 化（年报）202312 投资有风险 理财请匹配 ◆ 原油市场仍处于"地缘风险托底"与"供需宽松压顶"的博弈之中。2026 年，原油价格运行重心趋于下移，整体维持低位震荡走势，预计 WTI 原油 波动区间 50-70 美元/桶，OPEC+产业政策及地缘局势将放大油价波动率。 ◆ 2026 年上半年，国内 PX 几无新装置投产，供应相对平稳；美国芳烃调油 需求有限，不过韩国产能缩减，进口货源有小幅减少预期；2025 年下半 年投产的多套 PTA 新装置带来一定需求增量，供需维持相对偏紧局面。下 半年尤其是四季度 ...

编者荐语： 转载自申万宏源证券上海分公司，仅供参考。近两周主力资金合计净流出2489.28亿元，主力资金净流入额前三的行业为商贸零售、钢铁和银行，主力资 金净流出额前三的行业为电子、电力设备和计算机。 以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者李金玲 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 数据速看： 1.主力资金： 近两周主力资金合计净流出2489.28亿元，主力资金净流入额前三的行业为商贸零售、钢铁和银行，主力资金净流出额前三的行业为电子、 电力设备和计算机。 2.融资融券数据 ：当前市场融资融券余额为24993.66亿元，较上期上升0.62%，其中融资余额24825.56亿元，融券余额168.09亿元。本期两融日均交易额为 1888.46亿元，较上期上升9.41%，其中融资日均净买入1881.21亿元，较两周前上升9.48%，融券日均净卖出7.24亿元，较上期下降5.15%。近两周融资净买 入前三的行业分别为电子、国防军工和通信；融券净卖出前三的行业分别为食品饮料、医药生物和基础化工。 3.涨跌情况： 近两 ...

Core Viewpoint - A trend of "counter-market buying" is emerging in the Hong Kong stock market amidst ongoing fluctuations, with institutional investors recognizing the valuation opportunities and actively seizing the market pullback as a layout window [1][4]. Group 1: Fundraising and Investment Trends - Since October 10, at least 15 new Hong Kong-themed funds have announced early fundraising closures, covering various types including passive index funds, equity mixed funds, and QDII funds [2]. - The early fundraising trend is characterized by significantly shortened timelines, with some funds reducing their fundraising periods by over a month [2]. - Newly launched ETFs have established high stock positions quickly, indicating strong bullish signals, with some ETFs reaching stock positions of 69.53% and 63.32% before listing [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Valuation - The recent market adjustment has provided a favorable entry point for new funds, as many heavy-weight stocks have seen significant weekly declines while maintaining stable fundamentals [4]. - The Hang Seng Index's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is approximately 12 times, and the Hang Seng Tech Index's is about 23 times, both at historical low levels, reflecting institutional recognition of undervalued Hong Kong stocks [5]. Group 3: Market Challenges - The Hang Seng Index has dropped 5.85% and the Hang Seng Tech Index has fallen 18.01% since October 3, indicating a clear market correction [6]. - Factors contributing to the market adjustment include fluctuating liquidity expectations, concerns over the "AI bubble" in the U.S., increased IPO activity, and reduced southbound capital inflows [7][8]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook and Investment Opportunities - Despite short-term pressures, institutions maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, predicting a "slow bull" market in 2026 with improved liquidity conditions [9]. - Key investment themes for 2026 include technology and high-end manufacturing, with a focus on sectors such as computing power, semiconductors, and consumer electronics [9]. - High dividend yield assets are also favored in a low-interest-rate environment, with institutions highlighting the value of leading copper and aluminum mining companies [9]. - The innovative drug and biotechnology sectors are seen as having significant investment opportunities due to industry acceleration and favorable policy adjustments [10].

Core Viewpoint - A trend of "counter-market buying" is emerging in the Hong Kong stock market amidst ongoing fluctuations, with institutional investors recognizing the valuation opportunities and actively seizing the market pullback as a layout window [1][4]. Group 1: Fundraising and Investment Trends - Since October 10, at least 15 new Hong Kong-themed funds have announced early fundraising closures, covering various types including passive index funds, equity mixed funds, and QDII funds [2][3]. - The early closure of fundraising is characterized by significantly shortened timelines, with some funds reducing their fundraising periods by over a month [3]. - Newly launched ETFs have shown rapid establishment of high stock positions, indicating a strong bullish signal, with some ETFs achieving stock positions of 69.53% and 63.32% before listing [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions and Institutional Sentiment - The recent market adjustment is viewed as a good opportunity for building positions, with many funds seeing significant declines in their core stocks, yet maintaining strong fundamentals [4][5]. - The Hang Seng Index's price-to-earnings ratio is approximately 12 times, and the Hang Seng Tech Index is around 23 times, both at about 30% lower than historical averages, reflecting institutional recognition of valuation opportunities [5]. Group 3: Market Challenges and External Factors - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced a decline of 5.85% in the Hang Seng Index and 18.01% in the Hang Seng Tech Index from October 3 to December 19 [7]. - Factors contributing to the market adjustment include fluctuations in liquidity expectations, concerns over the "AI bubble" in the U.S., increased IPO activity causing funding pressure, and profit-taking in previously high-performing stocks [8]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook and Investment Opportunities - Despite short-term pressures, institutions maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, predicting a "slow bull" market in 2026 with improved liquidity conditions [9]. - Key investment themes for 2026 include technology and high-end manufacturing, with a focus on sectors such as computing power, semiconductors, and consumer electronics [9][10]. - High dividend yield assets are also favored in a low-interest-rate environment, with institutions highlighting the value of resource companies and industrial metals [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - A trend of "counter-market buying" is emerging in the Hong Kong stock market amidst ongoing fluctuations, with institutional investors recognizing the valuation opportunities and actively positioning themselves during the market pullback [1][3]. Fundraising and Investment Trends - Since early October, at least 15 new Hong Kong-themed funds have announced early closures of their fundraising periods, particularly in the technology sector, indicating a "fast launch and build" characteristic [1][2]. - Fundraising deadlines have been significantly advanced, with some funds shortening their periods by over a month, reflecting a concentrated early closure trend primarily occurring from late November to mid-December [2]. - Newly launched ETFs have established high stock positions quickly, with notable examples including the Huatai-PineBridge Hang Seng Index ETF and the GF CSI Hong Kong Internet ETF, which reached stock positions of 69.53% and 63.32% respectively before listing [2]. Market Analysis and Institutional Sentiment - Institutions view the current market adjustment as a favorable opportunity for building positions, with many believing that the recent declines provide lower entry points for fundamentally strong companies [3]. - The Hang Seng Index's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is approximately 12 times, and the Hang Seng Technology Index's is about 23 times, both at historically low levels, indicating a consensus among institutions regarding the undervaluation of Hong Kong stocks [3]. Market Conditions and External Influences - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced a decline of 5.85% in the Hang Seng Index and 18.01% in the Hang Seng Technology Index from October 3 to December 19 [5]. - The market adjustment is attributed to a combination of internal and external factors, including fluctuating liquidity expectations, concerns over the U.S. "AI bubble," increased IPO activity, and reduced southbound capital inflows [6]. Long-term Outlook and Investment Opportunities - Despite short-term pressures, institutions maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, predicting a "slow bull" market in 2026 with improved liquidity conditions [7]. - Key investment themes for 2026 include technology and high-end manufacturing, with a focus on sectors such as computing power, semiconductors, and consumer electronics [7][8]. - High dividend yield assets are also favored in the current low-interest-rate environment, with institutions highlighting the value of dividend-paying stocks [7]. - The innovative drug and biotechnology sectors are seen as having significant investment opportunities, driven by industry acceleration and favorable policy adjustments [8].

Core Insights - The report highlights the shifting dynamics among the US, A-share, and Hong Kong markets, indicating a "seesaw" effect where one market's performance impacts the others. The first quarter saw a revaluation of Chinese assets led by DeepSeek, while the second quarter was characterized by strong performance in US stocks driven by AI leaders and capital expenditure growth [1][2] - Since late November, Hong Kong stocks have underperformed compared to US and A-shares, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index showing declines of 2.2% and 0.7% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite and US indices posted gains [2][3] - The report attributes the recent weakness of Hong Kong stocks to their sensitivity to liquidity changes and structural differences, with a notable slowdown in southbound capital inflows and external liquidity support [3][4] Market Dynamics - Southbound capital inflows have decreased significantly, with a 10-day moving average dropping from an average of 7 billion HKD to below 1 billion HKD, leading to concerns about potential fund outflows due to regulatory changes [3][4] - External liquidity has also been a concern, with active foreign capital flowing out of Hong Kong while inflows into A-shares have continued. The report notes that recent hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve have contributed to a lack of external liquidity support for Hong Kong stocks [3][4] - Despite the short-term liquidity disturbances, the report suggests that the fundamental weakness in the market has amplified negative sentiment, particularly in the context of the unique industry structure of Hong Kong stocks [4][5] Sector Analysis - The technology sector, primarily focused on internet applications in Hong Kong, faces concerns over an AI bubble, while A-shares benefit from a higher proportion of hardware-related stocks, providing stronger support [5][6] - The consumer sector in Hong Kong, particularly discretionary spending, is struggling due to weak domestic consumption recovery and a declining credit cycle, which limits its potential as a market driver [5][6] - The cyclical sector has shown some strength, particularly in metals, but its overall weight in the Hong Kong market is low, limiting its ability to provide substantial support [5][6] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that Hong Kong stocks will be more sensitive to liquidity and fundamental changes, with potential for stronger performance if the credit cycle improves and risk appetite increases [5][6] - Historical patterns indicate that Hong Kong stocks tend to outperform during periods of fundamental recovery and ample liquidity, but recent trends suggest a need to consider structural differences among the markets [6][7] - For 2026, the report emphasizes the importance of liquidity, fundamental conditions, and structural opportunities in determining market performance, with a focus on the potential for recovery in the US credit cycle and the challenges facing the Chinese credit cycle [9][10]

Group 1 - The core message of the article emphasizes the importance of the capital market in supporting national strategies and empowering the real economy, with a focus on structural opportunities arising from advancements in artificial intelligence and emerging industries [1][2][3] - The 2026 capital market is expected to present more structural opportunities, particularly influenced by the fourth industrial revolution and technological advancements [3][5] - The current economic structure in China shows a surplus in supply but a lack of demand, leading to downward pressure on prices, which is a structural issue that needs long-term observation [5][7] Group 2 - The improvement in the profitability of listed companies is a key factor supporting the performance of the A-share market this year, with a year-on-year profit growth of 5.47% in the first three quarters, surpassing the actual GDP growth rate [7][8] - The growth in profitability is concentrated in sectors such as software and services, technology hardware, and materials, while industries like real estate and consumer services are experiencing significant declines [8][9] - The 2026 market outlook includes a focus on four main directions: strong performance in gold and related sectors due to geopolitical tensions, long-term growth in AI technology stocks, emerging consumption trends related to younger demographics, and the attractiveness of high-dividend and fixed-income assets [9][11]

Group 1 - The private equity stock position index reached 82.97% as of November 21, 2025, marking a significant increase of 1.84% from the previous week and setting a new high for the year, as well as a 185-week record [1] - The proportion of fully invested private equity (over 80%) increased to 68.99%, while the percentages of medium (50%-80%), low (20%-50%), and empty positions (less than 20%) decreased to 18.56%, 8.56%, and 3.89% respectively [1] - Major private equity firms, such as Dongshuiquan, believe that despite short-term volatility, structural opportunities are emerging, supported by favorable policy and liquidity conditions [1] Group 2 - The current market anticipates that the Federal Reserve is in a rate-cutting cycle, contributing to a generally loose liquidity environment in the A-share market [1] - Corporate earnings are showing signs of stabilization, with third-quarter reports indicating a mix of structural differentiation and localized highlights, particularly in the technology and advanced manufacturing sectors [1] - The technology and advanced manufacturing sectors are expected to continue providing structural opportunities due to dual drivers of external demand and technological upgrades [1]

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond market is experiencing low-level fluctuations in yields as it approaches year-end, facing challenges such as seasonal funding volatility and weakened institutional allocation, while also presenting structural opportunities due to the release of amortized bond fund scales [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current credit bond market shows a "generally stable, structurally differentiated" characteristic, with widening differences in yields and spreads across different segments, influenced by seasonal marginal changes in both supply and demand [2] - The yield performance indicates that AAA-rated urban investment bonds for 3 to 10 years have increased by 6 basis points (BP), while AA+ rated bonds have risen by 5 to 6 BP, contrasting with a decrease of 1 to 2 BP for AA and below rated 5-year bonds, suggesting a trend of "short flat, medium expansion, long contraction" in spreads [2][3] Market Trends - The net buying scale of credit bonds has decreased from approximately 100 billion yuan at the beginning of November to 50 billion yuan by the end of the month, with short-duration products' transaction share rising from 43% to 58% [3] - The liquidity environment remains supportive, with a stable monetary policy aimed at "steady growth," which is expected to maintain a stable funding environment in December, providing a foundation for low credit spreads [3][4] Structural Opportunities - The release of amortized bond fund scales is significant, with an estimated 1,077 billion yuan expected to open in December, which will further boost demand for 3 to 5-year credit bonds [4][5] - Institutions are beginning to position themselves for mid to long-term credit bonds, with a projected opening scale of approximately 1,300 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2026, indicating a stable demand for high-rated 5-year bonds [5] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for December should focus on "defensive as the foundation, offensive as appropriate," emphasizing the need to control overall risk while targeting high-value bonds that meet the demand from amortized bond funds [6][7] - Recommendations include focusing on 2 to 3-year mid-short duration bonds to capture yield opportunities, particularly in high-rated (AAA, AA+) urban investment and quality industrial bonds, while avoiding sectors with excess capacity and cash flow volatility [7][8] - For stable liability accounts, it is advisable to preemptively position in 5-year high-rated bonds, as these are expected to provide value in the context of the upcoming large-scale opening of amortized bond funds [8]