证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2025 年 12 月 19 日 宏观点评 证券分析师 程强 姓名 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 薛威 姓名 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 邮箱：xxxxx＠tebon.com.cn 港股执业证号：非必填 邮箱：xxxxx＠tebon.com.cn 资格编号：S11305XXXXXX 港股执业证号：非必填 事件：美国劳工统计局公布 11 月 CPI 报告。11 月 CPI 同比 2.7%，低于预期值 3.1%；11 月核心 CPI 同比 2.6%，大幅低于预期值 3%，为 2021 年 3 月以来新 低。由于政府停摆，环比数据仅有 10-11 月口径，CPI 环比增速为 0.2%，前值 0.3%；核心 CPI 环比增速 0.2%，前值 0.2%。 解读：政府停摆扰动较大，数据参考意义或有限。第一，数据收集暂停时间长。政 府停摆拨款中断致使劳工局在 10 月 1 日至 11 月 12 日期间暂停了 CPI 的数据收 集，10 月和 11 月的多数分项环比数据 ...

回撤方面，截至2025年12月18日，国债ETF5至10年近半年最大回撤1.09%，相对基准回撤0.58%。 机构认为近一个月券商自营净卖出超长利率债超过1千亿，止盈止损差不多了；债基净赎回力度也减弱 了。下半月债基冲量，规模可能略微好转，债市可能还能反弹些。明年初降仓位的券商自营可能重新进 场。昨日超长利率债二级交易：券商自营-8亿，债基+36亿，险资+90亿，中小型银行自营及年金等净卖 出。昨日险资净买入力度下降，险资对股市预期高，配置节奏偏均衡，收益率越上越买。11月美国CPI 同比降至2.7%，随着高关税带来的一次性影响基本体现，2026年美国降息幅度可能高于此前预期。将 进一步打开国内宽松空间。14天逆回购来到1.4%，跨年资金面无忧，债市加杠杆成本有望稳中趋降。 Q3股市大涨改变了非银机构预期，交易盘纷纷减仓及降久期，使得超长债与基本面阶段性脱钩，机构 大多觉得债券是弱势资产，大机会仍需等待。短期不看基本面，交易盘决定超长债行情节奏，配置盘决 定收益率上限。 截至2025年12月18日 15:00，中证5-10年期国债活跃券指数(净价)(H21018)上涨0.01%。国债ETF5至10年 (511 ...

2025 年 12 月 8 日 星期一 ➢ 每日大市点评 上周港股上下波动。恒生指数及国企指数最终分别收报 26,085 点及 9,198 点，全周上升 0.9%及 0.8%。上周港股成交合共 9,332 亿港元，较前周的 10,918 亿港元，下跌 14.5%，或反映投资者信心波动。分类指数方面，原材料、工业及能源指数 全周分别上升 10.0%、3.4%、3.1%；医疗保健、地产建筑及必需性消费则分别下跌 0.8%、0.2%及 0.2%。蓝筹个股方面， 紫金矿业(2899 HK)及中国宏桥(1378 HK)领涨，全周分别上升 12.1%及 9.3%；申洲国际(2313 HK)及美团(3690 HK)领跌， 全周分别下跌 6.9%及 3.4%。 有色金属及黄金类港股表现突出，估计(一)受到市场预期铜供应紧张，伦敦期铜价上涨至 11,620 美元近年新高水平； (二)以及因特朗普表示已经有下任联储局主席人选后，投资者对美国降息预期升温。可是不可排除部分投资者趁本周中 段美国议息前，减持部分相关港股以锁定利润的可能性。另一方面，近期半导体/AI 板块受到资本市场关注，哪些企业最 终成功突围仍待观察，但是无论如何， ...

今日黄金价格最新查询(2025年12月2日) 摘要北京时间周二(12月2日)欧洲时段，美元指数起起伏伏，交投于99.453附近，金价目前交投于 4210.64美元/盎司，跌幅0.47%，最高触及4235.28美元/盎司，最低触及4200.09美元/盎司。 北京时间周二(12月2日)欧洲时段，美元指数起起伏伏，交投于99.453附近，金价目前交投于4210.64美 元/盎司，跌幅0.47%，最高触及4235.28美元/盎司，最低触及4200.09美元/盎司。 | 名称 | 最新价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货黄金 | 4210.64 | 美元/盎司 | | 黄金t+d | 954.65 | 元/克 | | 纸黄金 | 956.91 | 元/克 | | 沪金主力 | 958.42 | 元/克 | 【基本面解析】 周一黄金价格早早升至六周来新高，美元指数跌至两周最低水平，推动了黄金等贵金属的强势上涨。对 于12月降息以及更广泛的明年宽松货币政策的预期是导致这些事件的根本原因。隔夜美国供应管理协会 (ISM)公布的——11月份制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)降至48.2，显示出制造业活 ...

【申万宏源策略】美国降息预期再升温，内外资均流入中国股市——全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251121- 20251128) 原创 阅读全文 申万宏源策略 ...

Group 1 - Silver prices surged to a historic high, continuing a nearly 6% increase from the previous trading day, driven by a combination of a trading interruption at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), ongoing supply tightness, and rising expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut [1] - In the spot market, silver prices rose approximately 1.5% to $57.86 per ounce, breaking the previous week's high, with silver prices nearly doubling this year and marking the sixth consecutive day of gains [1] - Despite record inflows of silver into the London market alleviating some supply shortages, the one-month silver borrowing cost remains high, and other trading hubs, such as the Shanghai Futures Exchange, are experiencing significant supply pressures with silver inventories at a near ten-year low [1] Group 2 - In Asia and Australia, silver and copper mining companies saw their stock prices rise collectively, with Sun Silver Ltd. increasing by 19% and Silver Mines Ltd. rising by 12% [2] - As of the latest update, spot silver prices increased by 0.5% to $57.309 per ounce, while spot gold rose by 0.4% to $4237.91 per ounce, indicating a positive trend in precious metals [3]

Group 1 - Shanghai copper futures closed higher, boosted by weak U.S. economic data, increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1][2] - The most actively traded Shanghai Futures Exchange copper contract rose by 360 yuan or 0.41% to 87,430 yuan per ton, with a weekly increase of 1.41% [1] - London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper rose by 42.5 dollars or 0.39% to 10,982 dollars per ton, with an expected weekly increase of nearly 2% [1] Group 2 - Weak U.S. retail sales and low consumer confidence have strengthened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month [2] - The U.S. dollar weakened this week but saw a slight recovery on Friday, making dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for investors holding other currencies, thus supporting metal prices [2] - Other metals on the Shanghai market showed mixed performance, with aluminum rising by 70 yuan or 0.32% to 21,610 yuan per ton, while zinc fell by 50 yuan or 0.22% to 22,425 yuan per ton [2] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley predicts that the attractiveness of rising copper prices, combined with a balanced market and short-term supply risks, will push aluminum prices close to 3,000 dollars per ton in the first half of 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is struggling to maintain its gains against the US dollar due to fiscal concerns and a positive risk sentiment that offsets intervention expectations, weakening the yen's safe-haven appeal [1][2]. Group 1: Yen's Performance and Market Sentiment - The yen has shown a steady decline from a one-week high, reflecting weakness against a broadly rebounding dollar, although its downside potential appears limited [2]. - Global risk sentiment is supported by expectations of US interest rate cuts and hopes for a peace agreement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has contributed to the yen's selling pressure [2][4]. - Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's push for stimulus policies has heightened market concerns regarding Japan's fiscal health, further impacting the yen's performance [2][3]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions and Economic Indicators - Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki issued a strong warning regarding excessive market volatility, indicating potential government intervention to counteract the yen's weakness [3]. - The Bank of Japan's recent adjustments in communication suggest a focus on the inflation risks associated with the yen's depreciation, hinting at a possible interest rate hike in December [3]. - Data released showed Japan's October Producer Price Index for services rose by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating progress towards the 2% inflation target, which may support further tightening of monetary policy [3]. Group 3: Economic Stimulus and Market Reactions - The Japanese cabinet approved a 21.3 trillion yen economic stimulus plan, marking the largest such initiative since the COVID-19 pandemic, raising concerns about increased government debt supply [4]. - The market's expectation of a potential US interest rate cut in December has led to a decline in the dollar-yen exchange rate, with the dollar/yuan trading around 155.70 [4]. - The market remains cautious, with traders reluctant to make aggressive directional bets due to the influence of US holidays on trading volumes [4]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The dollar/yen exchange rate is facing resistance near the 100-hour simple moving average at approximately 156.70, which is seen as a critical pivot point [5][7]. - A sustained breakout above this resistance could lead to a recovery towards the 157.00 level and potentially higher to the 157.45-157.50 range [7]. - Conversely, a drop below the recent low of 155.65 could trigger further declines, with the psychological level of 155.00 becoming a new target for bearish traders [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [6] 2. Report's Core View - The domestic spot premium is showing a stable and improving trend, with the spread between different months narrowing, while the overseas premium remains high for a long time, and the export window remains open. The TC at home and abroad continues to decline, and the smelting comprehensive cost begins to face losses. The social inventory center continues to decline. The fundamental data has turned from bearish to bullish, and the current zinc valuation is low. Although there are fluctuations in the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December, the future consumption is optimistic, and the expectation of an interest rate cut remains unchanged, with re - inflation not yet reflected [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $140.20 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,400 yuan per ton, with a change of 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 40 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,350 yuan per ton, with a change of 30 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 20 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,350 yuan per ton, with a change of 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 10 yuan per ton [2] - **Futures**: On November 25, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,335 yuan per ton, closed at 22,360 yuan per ton, with a change of 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 84,904 lots, and the position was 99,591 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,420 yuan per ton, and the lowest reached 22,275 yuan per ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of November 25, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 151,000 tons, with a change of - 17,000 tons from the previous period. As of November 25, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 48,000 tons, with a change of 575 tons from the previous trading day [4]

Core Insights - The transition from "stocks rise, bonds fall" to "stocks fall, bonds do not rise" reflects the disparity in asset trends, indicating a lack of strong bullish drivers in the bond market while the equity market focuses on restoring investor confidence [1][3][11] - The bond market has seen a rebound from low levels, but the momentum for further increases is weak due to limited expectations for monetary policy easing and a generally low investor sentiment after a year of significant volatility [1][3][14] - The equity market, despite the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs, lacks strong trading logic to support its rise, leading to pressure from high absolute index levels and recent volatility in overseas markets [1][3][14] Understanding U.S. Rate Cut Expectations - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between employment and inflation, with mixed signals from the labor market suggesting that a significant recession is not imminent, which may not justify a rate cut in December [2][15][16] - The absence of key labor data due to government shutdowns means the Fed may adopt a cautious stance, waiting for clearer signals before making decisions on rate cuts [2][18][22] - The fluctuation in rate cut expectations has impacted global asset pricing, with the potential for volatility in the rate cut timeline, although the overall direction towards easing remains unchanged [2][22] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market currently lacks a clear bullish trading narrative, making it susceptible to profit-taking after minor gains, with the potential for a breakout dependent on consistent bullish signals from policy or market trends [3][26] - Investor sentiment in the equity market is low due to ongoing declines, emphasizing the need to restore confidence to avoid a downward spiral in market perceptions [3][26]