Group 1 - The initial response rate of the August non-farm survey rebounded significantly, but the trend of employment deterioration has not stopped, with private sector job additions contracting for four consecutive months [1] - The total non-farm job additions from May to August were only 107,000, which is below the average monthly growth of 127,000 in the first four months of 2025 [1] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.248% to 4.324%, primarily due to a slight recovery in labor force participation [3] Group 2 - The Kansas Fed President stated that there is no need to adjust interest rates, despite the region's employment situation being the worst in the country [6] - The employment situation in the manufacturing sector, sensitive to tariffs, has been declining, indicating potential further job losses in this area [8] - The U6 unemployment rate and the unemployment rate for African Americans have shown significant increases, highlighting structural vulnerabilities in the labor market [11] Group 3 - The combination of declining full-time employment, rising part-time employment, and increasing permanent unemployment has accumulated greater risks for a jump in the unemployment rate [7] - The labor market is facing structural issues, with young individuals lacking skills and experience struggling to find jobs, while undocumented immigrants are hesitant to work due to political climate [16] - The trend of rising unemployment is likely to continue, even if the U.S. economy does not enter a recession [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the entire black building materials sector is "oscillating" [5]. - For individual varieties, the mid - term outlooks for steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are all "oscillating" [7][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of the military parade on the sector is gradually diminishing. As coal - coking and steel enterprises resume production, the demand for furnace materials is increasing, especially for iron ore. However, the overall upward movement of the sector's prices depends on the start of the replenishment logic under continuous demand improvement. The increasing expectation of a US interest rate cut may further boost the sector sentimentally [1]. - Overall, the terminal demand during the peak season needs to improve for the sector to rise again. Attention should also be paid to the boosting effect of strengthened policy expectations [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Sector - The intraday futures prices of the sector rose and then fell, and the night - session continued the oscillating and pressured trend, mainly due to the impact of the military parade on the supply - demand side of the industrial chain. After the parade, some enterprises resumed production, increasing the demand for furnace materials, especially for iron ore. The overall upward movement of the sector's prices requires the start of the replenishment logic under continuous demand improvement. The increasing expectation of a US interest rate cut may further boost the sector [1]. 2. Analysis of Different Elements and Products Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month, in line with expectations. The small - sample hot metal production decreased slightly, and steel enterprises are expected to resume production. This week, iron ore ports reduced inventory, the number of ships at berth increased, factory inventories decreased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The fundamentals support the price, and it is expected to oscillate in the future. The fundamentals of scrap steel have no prominent contradictions. The low profit of electric furnaces due to pressured finished - product prices and the tight supply lead to an expected short - term price oscillation [2]. Carbon Element - After the military parade, steel mills will enter the peak production season, and the demand will support the short - term price to remain oscillating. After the parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The upcoming peak demand season for downstream products still supports the coking coal price [2]. Alloys - Manganese ore and coke prices are weak, and the cost support for manganese silicon is insufficient. The market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still significant downward pressure on the price in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs. The current cost of ferrosilicon has some support, but the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [2]. Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but there are expectations for the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream reduces inventory, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline while oscillating [2][12]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern of soda ash remains unchanged. After the futures price declines, spot - futures trading volume increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [2][15]. 3. Analysis of Individual Varieties Steel - The spot market trading volume of steel is generally weak. Affected by the military parade, steel production and demand both decreased, and inventory continued to accumulate. The market is cautious about the peak - season demand. After the parade, the hot metal production may return to a high level, and attention should be paid to the replenishment demand during the peak season, which may support the futures price [7]. Iron Ore - The overseas mine shipments and arrivals at 45 ports increased month - on - month, in line with expectations. The small - sample hot metal production decreased slightly, and steel enterprises are expected to resume production. The port inventory decreased, the number of ships at berth increased, factory inventories decreased, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The fundamentals support the price, and it is expected to oscillate in the future [7]. Scrap Steel - The supply of scrap steel decreased this week. Due to the pressured finished - product prices, the electric - furnace profit is low, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in both electric furnaces and blast furnaces decreased. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory - available days are at a low level. The fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [9]. Coke - The expectation of the eighth round of price increases has basically failed, and the market sentiment is bearish. After the parade, steel mills will enter the peak production season, and the demand will support the short - term price to remain oscillating [9][11]. Coking Coal - After the military parade, coal mines will gradually resume production but are unlikely to reach the previous high. The upcoming peak demand season for downstream products still supports the coking coal price. Attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine resumption, and Mongolian coal imports [11][12]. Glass - The demand for glass is weak, but there are expectations for the peak season and policies. After the mid - stream reduces inventory, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline while oscillating [12]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern of soda ash remains unchanged. After the futures price declines, spot - futures trading volume increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [13][15]. Manganese Silicon - The prices of manganese ore and coke are weak, and the cost support for manganese silicon is insufficient. The market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still significant downward pressure on the price in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [16]. Ferrosilicon - The current cost of ferrosilicon has some support, but the supply - demand relationship will become looser in the future, and the price center will tend to decline in the medium - to - long - term. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [17].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangxi Copper's stock surged over 8% following the announcement of its mid-year results for 2025, indicating positive market sentiment despite a decline in revenue [1] Financial Performance - Jiangxi Copper reported a revenue of approximately 256.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.97% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was about 4.451 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.78% [1] - Basic earnings per share were 1.29 yuan, with an interim dividend of 0.4 yuan per share [1] Market Analysis - Citigroup raised its target price for Jiangxi Copper's H-shares from 19.1 HKD to 27.9 HKD and for A-shares from 25 HKD to 33.8 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The bank initiated a 90-day positive catalyst observation for Jiangxi Copper, citing a reduction in China's copper cathode production and expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. as potential short-term support for copper-related stocks [1] Industry Context - On August 28, Jiaxin International Resources was officially listed, with its Bakuta tungsten mine being the fourth largest WO mineral resource globally, possessing the largest designed tungsten production capacity in a single mine [1] - Jiangxi Copper holds a 31.24% stake in Jiaxin International Resources, which has begun to release production from the Bakuta tungsten mine [1]

Group 1 - Jiangxi Copper Company (00358) saw its stock price rise by 8.14% to HKD 25.24, with a trading volume of HKD 315 million [1] - For the first half of 2025, Jiangxi Copper reported revenue of approximately CNY 256.03 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.97%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was about CNY 4.451 billion, an increase of 19.78% [1] - Citigroup raised its target price for Jiangxi Copper's H-shares from HKD 19.1 to HKD 27.9 and for A-shares from CNY 25 to CNY 33.8, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2 - Jaxin International Resources officially listed on August 28, and its Bakuta tungsten mine is the fourth largest WO₃ mineral resource globally, with the largest designed tungsten production capacity in a single mine [2] - The company holds a 31.24% stake in Jaxin International Resources, which has begun to release production from the Bakuta tungsten mine [2]

Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices reached a two-month high due to a decline in the dollar, positive economic data, and optimistic expectations for a rate cut in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Copper Market Performance - On September 2, LME three-month copper rose by $96.5, or 0.98%, closing at $9,980.5 per ton, with an intraday high of $10,009, the highest since July 3 [1][2] - The premium for copper imports in China, measured by the Yangshan copper premium, increased to $55 per ton, up from $29 on July 8, but still below the $100 level seen in May [4] - LME copper inventories are high, indicating weak demand outside of China, with spot copper trading at a discount of approximately $85 per ton compared to three-month copper [5][6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August, with the ISM manufacturing PMI slightly rising to 48.7 from 48.0 in July, remaining below the neutral level of 50 [6] - The new orders index in the ISM survey rose to 51.4, indicating potential recovery after six months of contraction [7] - Market attention is focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17, with expectations of a rate cut that could weaken the dollar and boost metal prices [7] Group 3: Other Base Metals Performance - LME three-month aluminum increased by $8, or 0.31%, closing at $2,619.0 per ton [2][8] - LME three-month zinc rose by $32.5, or 1.15%, closing at $2,865.0 per ton [2][8] - LME three-month lead decreased by $9.5, or 0.47%, closing at $1,994.0 per ton [2][9] - LME three-month nickel fell by $207, or 1.34%, closing at $15,232.0 per ton [2][10] - LME three-month tin dropped by $219, or 0.63%, closing at $34,733.0 per ton [2][8]

Core Viewpoint - Gold stocks are rising against the trend, with gold resources increasing over 6%, Harmony Gold up over 5%, and Kinross Gold up over 1% due to expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar [1] Group 1 - Spot gold reached a new high, peaking at $3,508.7 per ounce [1] - Silver spot prices also surpassed the $40 mark, achieving a 14-year high [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that gold prices have reached a historical high of $3,508.70 per ounce, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S. and a weakening dollar [1] - Traders currently estimate a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming September policy meeting [1] - The article mentions that President Trump has been criticizing the Federal Reserve and its Chairman Powell for not lowering interest rates, indicating a political dimension to the monetary policy discussions [1] Group 2 - Investors are awaiting the U.S. non-farm payroll data to gauge the potential extent of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this month [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current trend of RMB appreciation is primarily driven by holders of foreign exchange (cross-border capital, foreign trade enterprises), while domestic investors remain relatively cautious, as evidenced by the high "Shanghai gold premium" [1][3]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB exchange rate has experienced two phases: the first phase from April to June was characterized by a collapse in dollar credit, where the US-China interest rate differential had an inverse relationship with the RMB exchange rate; the second phase from July to August saw a return to the significance of the US-China interest rate differential due to expectations of US interest rate cuts [9]. - The RMB exchange rate is currently showing a "three-price divergence," indicating a persistent discrepancy among the "gold purchasing power parity" reflecting domestic expectations, the offshore price reflecting market expectations, and the central bank's middle price reflecting its stance [9]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Holders of foreign exchange (foreign capital, foreign trade enterprises) are the main drivers of the current RMB appreciation, while currency exchangers (domestic investors) are more cautious about the trend [9]. - Domestic investors, who are currency exchangers, are more concerned with dollar yields and are less sensitive to dollar credit, which is reflected in the high correlation between gold purchasing power parity and US Treasury yields [9]. Group 3: Central Bank's Role - The central bank's management of exchange rate expectations has become crucial, as the pricing logic of the RMB exchange rate is expected to become more complex by 2025, with the US-China interest rate differential no longer being as effective as in previous years [3]. - The central bank has successfully demonstrated expectation management, leading to increased optimism among domestic investors and a breakthrough at the key level of 7.15, with expectations that the offshore price may rise to the range of 7.0-7.1 [3][9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that gold sector stocks listed in London are rising due to increasing gold prices driven by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and uncertainties surrounding tariffs [1] - Gold prices are approaching historical highs, influenced by the upcoming U.S. economic reports including the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, non-farm payroll report, job vacancies, labor turnover survey, and ADP report [1] - Specific stock performances include Hochschild Mining's share price increasing by 5%, Alien Metals rising by 3.85%, and Fresnillo up by 1.6% [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core View - This year, the peak - season consumption in the US has no obvious improvement. The market has digested the US interest - rate cut expectation to some extent. There is no driving force for oil prices, which are expected to continue oscillating at the bottom and may fall again in the medium term [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI main contract: opened at 64.75 dollars/barrel, closed at 63.31 dollars/barrel, with a high of 64.76 dollars/barrel, a low of 63.13 dollars/barrel, a decline of 2.3%, and a trading volume of 18.38 million barrels [6] - Brent main contract: opened at 68.14 dollars/barrel, closed at 66.69 dollars/barrel, with a high of 68.16 dollars/barrel, a low of 66.6 dollars/barrel, a decline of 2.24%, and a trading volume of 28.51 million barrels [6] - SC main contract: opened at 491.7 yuan/barrel, closed at 479.7 yuan/barrel, with a high of 493.3 yuan/barrel, a low of 478 yuan/barrel, a decline of 3.62%, and a trading volume of 12.54 million barrels [6] - As of the week ending on the 15th, US crude inventories declined more than expected due to the recovery of crude exports, which reached 4.37 million barrels per day, a new high since April this year. However, refined - oil consumption remained weak, with gasoline apparent demand at 8.842 million barrels per day, showing a decline both year - on - year and month - on - month. Whether diesel demand can maintain its strength needs further attention [6] Group 5: Industry News - Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude prices to fall to just over $50 by the end of 2026 due to an expanding oil surplus next year [8] - Facing approaching US tariffs, India plans to reduce Russian oil purchases [8] - Russia plans to increase oil exports by 200,000 barrels per day in August despite refinery shutdowns, but there is uncertainty in the export plan due to continuous drone attacks and maintenance work [8] - Kpler data shows that Iran's average daily crude exports in August are about 1.5 million barrels, down from 1.7 million barrels during March - May [8] - According to Reuters' calculation, Ukrainian attacks have disrupted at least 17% of Russia's refining capacity [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including WTI spot price, Oman spot price, Brent fund net position, Dtd Brent price, etc., with data sources from wind, CFTC, Bloomberg, and EIA [11][13][14]