Core Insights - The article highlights the phenomenon of rapidly declining yields on bank wealth management products shortly after their issuance, indicating a trend where high initial returns are not sustainable [1][2][3] Group 1: Yield Fluctuations - A specific wealth management product saw its annualized yield drop from 5.15% to 4.58% within twenty days of its launch [1] - During the recent National Day holiday, some products experienced a significant yield drop from 6.96% to 2.799% shortly after the holiday [2] - Investors often perceive the increase in product issuance limits as a signal to exit, as it typically indicates a reduction in potential returns [2][3] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Many investors are accustomed to adjusting their positions frequently, often favoring newly issued products due to their higher expected yields [3] - Bank wealth management managers acknowledge that new products typically offer higher yields for a limited time, usually around one month, before returning to normal levels [3] Group 3: T-1 Valuation Model - The article discusses the "T-1 valuation" model, where funds from multiple products are pooled into a trust account, allowing managers to manipulate yields by timing purchases and redemptions based on market conditions [4] - This model enables the transfer of profits from older products to newly launched ones, effectively redistributing benefits among investors [4] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Regulatory Environment - The article notes a broader trend of banks seeking to attract clients amid a challenging investment environment, leading to various strategies to enhance product appeal [5] - Recent regulatory guidelines emphasize the need for transparency in presenting past performance of wealth management products, warning investors that past performance does not guarantee future results [6]

-4849 .1012 -48倍 | 7 Elite | 日度策略参考 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 份格号:F025192 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | 品神 | | | | | | 当前宏观层面处于相对真空期,A股缺乏明确的上涨主线,市场成 | 交维持低位,预计短期市场分歧将在股指震荡调整中逐步消化, | 股指 | 農汤 | 待新的驱动主线带来股指进一步上行。 | 六川金融 | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债 | 至间。 | | | | | | | | 近期市场情绪反复,铜价或震荡运行。 | 農汤 | 近期产业面驱动有限,而宏观情绪反复,铝价高位震荡运行。 | 震荡 | F | | | | | | 国内氧化铝产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,近期价 | 氧化铝 | 格继续围绕成本线附近震荡运行,关注矿端价格变化。 | 美联储内部分歧加大, 近期宏观情绪预计反复。基本面短期国内 | | | | | | | ...

本文作者为创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春 上期首席视点指出，临近年底，投资者的情绪在进一步调整，叠加外部新的冲击的来临，年底前的市场 又掀起了新的波澜。在新的波澜面前，积极地等待，谋定而后动是现实的策略。在剧烈的产业转型期， 为解决政府工作重中之重的三农问题，在可预期的政策操作中，释放再多的制度红利都不算过分。 当投资者将视野聚焦于全球的AI竞争，憧憬产业脱胎换骨的场景时是极度乐观的，这是战略投资的结 果。当转向内需时，投资者则显得有些悲观。在悲观与乐观之间，投资者将改变这一僵局的难题转嫁给 了政策，当政策聚焦在更加长远的五年规划时，中国央行不降准降息的操作显然不及激进投资者的预 期。不仅如此，美联储面对不错的就业数据，给市场传递了12月不降息的信号，更是让投资者开始怀疑 2026年流动性是否充裕。 一、"资产荒"替代"钱荒" 过去三年，流动性充裕成为了资产重估的必要条件，资金物美价廉成为共识。共识是可以改变的吗？什 么条件下会改变"水牛"的市场特征？ 多是相对而言的，要么是央行实施偏松的政策，发行的增量货币多。要么是存量货币也就是储蓄多，即 使央行实行偏紧的政策，生产者还是无法把这些储蓄用于生产。从这个角度 ...

（原标题：21专访｜中金财富吴显鏖：财富管理3.0是"做规划"的时代） 21世纪经济报道记者 黄子潇 深圳报道 随着低利率、净值化、全球配置时代的来临，对于大湾区居民而言，在机构财富管理能力叠加机构提升 低息环境下，资产配置日益需求增加。 对此，财富管理机构正在积极作为，探索更前沿的资产配置方法论。 在出席2025年湾区财富大会并演讲后，中金财富证券党委副书记、执委会委员、副总裁吴显鏖接受了21 世纪经济报道记者的专访。 他表示，财富管理1.0时代是"卖产品"，2.0时代逐渐过渡到"做配置"，类似"产品超市"，而3.0是"做规 划"的时代，需要解决财富管理（卖方）与投资者（买方）的利益一致性问题。当前，财富管理行业仍 存在"重销售轻陪伴"的短板。机构既要夯实"投"的能力，也应重视"顾"的服务。 另一方面，在全球步入低利率环境后，传统产品收益率走低，"资产荒"问题随之而来。对此，吴显鏖提 出了挖掘多元赛道、拓展稳健资产供给、布局全球化资产配置等建议。 对于如何兼顾全球配置的收益和风险，他介绍了该公司名为"5A配置模型"的方法论，并表示"没有最好 的资产，只有合适的方案。无论什么时候，配置方案永远不应该大幅偏离客 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current macro - level is in a relative vacuum period. The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, and trading volume remains low. Short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving main line to push the index higher [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Equity Index - The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, with low trading volume. Short - term market differences will be digested in the index's shock adjustment, and a new driving main line is awaited for further upward movement [1]. Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the rise [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Market sentiment is volatile recently, and copper prices may fluctuate [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drivers and volatile macro sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level [1]. - Alumina: Domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released. Production and inventory are both increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Prices are oscillating around the cost line [1]. - Zinc: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment is expected to be volatile. Although there are short - term improvement signs in the domestic fundamentals, the oversupply pattern remains. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. - Nickel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term after the China - US presidential call. Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals. With a planned monthly production cut of about 6,000 metric tons in Indonesian intermediate products, nickel prices have a repair expectation if the macro sentiment improves. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains oversupplied [1]. - Stainless Steel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term. The price of raw material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. Steel mills' production cuts in November are limited. Stainless - steel futures are looking for a bottom in oscillation. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy, and pay attention to short - selling hedging opportunities at high prices [1]. - Tin: The Fed's differences are increasing, and the macro situation is volatile. Indonesia's tin exports have declined significantly. Considering the un - repaired tin - ore supply and terminal demand expectations, tin is still regarded as bullish in the long term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: There are still differences regarding a December interest - rate cut. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to US economic data [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years. The impact of the dry season is weakening. Polysilicon production in November has decreased, and there is a joint production cut in the organic - silicon industry [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long term. Terminal installations will increase marginally in the fourth quarter. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and the supply side is resuming production. However, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Steel and Iron - Rebar: In the off - season, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand. During the short - term macro vacuum period, although the valuation is low, the price increase space is limited. The virtual value accumulation strategy can be appropriately participated in [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. During the short - term macro vacuum period, the basis is acceptable. The spot - futures positive arbitrage can be appropriately participated in, or option strategies can be used to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1]. - Ferroalloy: Short - term production profits are poor, cost support is strengthening, direct demand is acceptable, but supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure. The price rebound is limited [1]. Chemicals - Soda Ash: It follows the glass market, but supply and demand are average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the current decline of coke and coking coal is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment is expected to start around mid - December. For now, a short - term trading strategy is recommended for single - side trading, and a wait - and - see attitude is advisable for the long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil: The rumor that "the US delays the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive impact on US soybeans and soybean oil. Domestic soybean - oil basis may be stable or weak under high - pressure crushing. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream start - up remains low, but spinning mills' inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver" [1]. - Sugar: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and raw - sugar prices are under pressure. The supply pressure of the domestic new crop has increased year - on - year, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the decline of raw sugar [1]. - Corn: Short - term supply is tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, logistics tensions in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory. The spot price is firm, and the futures price has rebounded. It is recommended to be cautious about going long before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - Bean Meal: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans, which may support the US soybean market. Without obvious weather problems, the market is expected to shift to trading the abundant supply of South American new crops from December to January. It is recommended to short MO5 on rallies [1]. Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products. After new warehouse - receipt registration, a 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - Logs: The fundamentals of logs have weakened, but this has been priced into the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Livestock - Pig: The current spot price is gradually stabilizing. Supported by demand and with the weight of pigs for slaughter not fully reduced, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy - Crude Oil: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and it follows the crude - oil market [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - Natural Rubber (HK): The raw - material cost has strong support, the spot - futures price difference is at a low level, and the number of RU盘 - face warehouse receipts is low after the cancellation of old - rubber warehouse receipts [1]. - BR Rubber: The cost support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, high - start - up and high - inventory have not yet suppressed the price. There are signs of price stabilization, and the subsequent rebound amplitude should be noted [1]. Petrochemicals - PTA: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of aromatics - production devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are under rotational inspection, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: The decline in crude - oil prices has led to a fall in ethylene - glycol prices. The increase in coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol prices [1]. - Short - Fiber: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. Short - fiber prices continue to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased. The price of pure benzene in the US Gulf has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads. The benzene - blending logic in the US has promoted the price increase of pure benzene [1]. Plastics - PE: Export sentiment has eased, but domestic demand is insufficient. There is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large due to high operating rates and relatively low downstream improvement and expectations. The high price of propylene monomers provides strong cost support [1]. - PVC: The futures price is returning to fundamentals. With fewer subsequent overhauls and new - capacity release, supply pressure is increasing, while demand is weakening and orders are poor [1]. Others - Caustic Soda: Some alumina plants' delivery schedules have slowed down. There are fewer subsequent overhauls, and there is inventory - accumulation pressure in Shandong. The price of liquid chlorine is high, and the absolute price is low. There is a risk of short - squeeze in near - month contracts due to limited warehouse receipts [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas fundamentals are continuously loose, and CP/FEI prices are weakening. The PG price has repaired its valuation, combustion demand is gradually restarting, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable with chemical - industry rigid demand support [1]. - Shipping: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.61%, the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.15%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index climbed by 0.75% during the midday session, with a market turnover of HKD 133.003 billion [1] - In the technology sector, Bilibili surged by 5.12%, with Kango Bio, Xiaomi, and Alibaba rising over 4%, while Baidu Group increased by 3.22% and Kuaishou by 2.55%. On the downside, Kingdee International fell by 1.46%, Midea Group by 1.13%, and JD Group by 0.44% [1] - The influx of southbound funds reached a record HKD 1.3 trillion by 2025, with a significant increase in the technology sector's share, making it a core focus for domestic investors in Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 2 - The influx of funds is supported by a loose liquidity environment, with the one-year fixed deposit rate in China dropping to a historical low of 0.95%. The trend of "activating" deposits is evident, with M1 year-on-year growth reaching 7.2% in September [2] - A total of CNY 1.3 trillion in resident demand deposits shifted to the capital market during July and August, indicating a strong movement towards investment [2] - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally has led to a rapid increase in the allocation of funds from Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) to the Chinese market, enhancing the valuation recovery of Hong Kong's technology sector [2]

这组此消彼长的数据勾勒出险资在收益压力下的战略选择。对于股票配置提升，深圳北山常成基金投研 院常务院长王兆江表示，首先，这是险资在"资产荒"背景下寻求收益突破的表现。近年来，优质非标资 产供给减少、收益率下降，同时信用风险抬升。而债券利率也处于历史相对低位。这使得能够提供长 期、超额收益的权益资产成为破解"资产荒"难题的关键工具。其次，也体现了险资对资本市场长期信 心。股票投资，特别是长期持有，源于对经济基本面和资本市场长期健康发展的信心。0.9个百分点的 提升，虽然绝对值不大，但信号意义强烈，说明A股市场具备长期配置价值，估值处于合理甚至偏低区 间。 来自行业的一组跟踪数据为这一趋势提供了佐证，其中呈现的上升曲线与资本市场估值修复的节奏不谋 而合。中泰证券(6.640, 0.01, 0.15%)非银金融团队最新研报指出，2024年一季度末至2025年三季度末， 险资配置股票余额占比分别为6.7%、7%、7.5%、7.5%、8.4%、8.8%和10%，呈现稳步提升态势。 这种审慎而积极的配置策略直接反映在收益表现上。2024年行业综合收益率分布呈现显著改善的趋势， 2024年，保险公司综合收益率集中区间较20 ...

来自行业的一组跟踪数据为这一趋势提供了佐证，其中呈现的上升曲线与资本市场估值修复的节奏不谋 而合。中泰证券(6.640, 0.01, 0.15%)非银金融团队最新研报指出，2024年一季度末至2025年三季度末， 险资配置股票余额占比分别为6.7%、7%、7.5%、7.5%、8.4%、8.8%和10%，呈现稳步提升态势。 万亿险资的"进退之道" 当债券利率持续走低、优质非标资产供给减少的"资产荒"渐成常态，保险资金如何破局？ 《报告》显示，2024年，参与调研的201家保险公司投资资产规模合计30.55万亿元，同比增长16.93%。 从资产配置结构来看，2024年末，保险资金继续保持较为稳健的配置结构，以利率债、信用债和股票投 资为主，合计占比59%，同比上升1.4个百分点。 深入资产配置的肌理，2024年，现金及流动性资产占比2.9%，同比下降1个百分点；银行存款占比 6.9%，同比下降0.1个百分点；股票占比8.3%，同比上升0.9个百分点，其中股票成为屈指可数的增长领 域。 这组此消彼长的数据勾勒出险资在收益压力下的战略选择。对于股票配置提升，深圳北山常成基金投研 院常务院长王兆江表示，首先，这是险资在 ...

这份汇集201家保险公司、34家保险资产管理公司调研数据的权威报告，不仅记录了保险资金投资资产的流动轨迹，更描画出行业在波动市场中的收益情 况。综合收益率方面，2024年，保险公司综合收益率集中区间较2023年显著上升；保险资管行业整体投资收益率显著高于上一年度。在业内人士看来，对于 保险公司、保险资管公司而言，正处于迈向专业化、市场化的关键转折点，如何在复杂经济环境中稳步前行成为命题作文。 万亿险资的"进退之道" 当债券利率持续走低、优质非标资产供给减少的"资产荒"渐成常态，保险资金如何破局？ 《报告》显示，2024年，参与调研的201家保险公司投资资产规模合计30.55万亿元，同比增长16.93%。从资产配置结构来看，2024年末，保险资金继续保持 较为稳健的配置结构，以利率债、信用债和股票投资为主，合计占比59%，同比上升1.4个百分点。 深入资产配置的肌理，2024年，现金及流动性资产占比2.9%，同比下降1个百分点；银行存款占比6.9％，同比下降0.1个百分点；股票占比8.3%，同比上升 0.9个百分点，其中股票成为屈指可数的增长领域。 规模达数十万亿元的保险资金最新动向出炉。11月24日，中国银行 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the public REITs market declined slightly, with the REITs market turnover decreasing. Both the equity - type public REITs and concession - type public REITs indices fell. Most public REITs products dropped this week [2][7]. - As of November 21, 2025, a total of 78 public REITs have been issued, with a total issuance scale of 201.869 billion yuan. 19 public REITs have been issued since 2025, and 1 was newly issued in November 2025. Additionally, 24 public REITs funds are awaiting listing [2][26]. - Beijing supports the construction of consumer infrastructure and the commercial circulation system. The China Aviation Zhonghe Group Energy Public REIT has been officially declared. The China Merchants Fund Shekou Rental Housing REIT will have its second annual dividend, distributing 0.318 yuan per 10 shares, and the Huaxia JINMAO Commercial REIT will have its third dividend in 2025, distributing 0.3755 yuan per 10 shares [2][31]. - Currently, in the context of an asset shortage, public REITs have the advantages of high dividends and medium - low risks, with a relatively high allocation cost - performance ratio. The market is expected to continue to expand as 24 REITs funds are waiting to be listed [3][37]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Secondary Market: The Public REITs Market Declined Slightly This Week - **Index Performance**: As of November 21, 2025, the CSI REITs Index fell 0.97% from last week to 810.2, and the CSI REITs Total Return Index was 1041.16, down 0.88% from last week [7]. - **Turnover and Turnover Rate**: The total trading volume of the REITs market this week was 557 million shares, a 21.55% week - on - week decline, and the trading value was 2.375 billion yuan, a 16.49% week - on - week decline. The market turnover rate this week was 2.21%, compared with 2.83% last week [8]. - **Sub - index Performance**: Both the equity - type public REITs and concession - type public REITs indices declined, falling 1.31% and 1.45% respectively. Among them, only the water conservancy facilities REITs rose slightly by 0.15%, while the municipal facilities REITs had the highest decline [10][14]. - **Turnover and Turnover Rate of Different Types of REITs**: Most of the trading volumes of different types of public REITs decreased. In terms of turnover rate, the daily average turnover rates of water conservancy facilities and new infrastructure REITs were greater than 1 this week. The daily average turnover rates of energy infrastructure and municipal facilities REITs increased, while those of other types of REITs mostly decreased [16][18]. - **Single - Target Performance**: Among the 77 public REITs, 9 rose and 68 fell. The top gainers were CICC Yizhuang Industrial Park REIT, Ping An Ningbo Jiaotou Hangzhou Bay Bridge REIT, and Huaxia Nanjing Traffic Expressway REIT, with weekly increases of 1.0%, 0.9%, and 0.6% respectively. The top losers were CICC Chongqing Liangjiang Industrial Park REIT, CITIC Construction Investment Mingyang Smart Energy REIT, and AVIC Yishang Warehouse Logistics REIT, with weekly declines of 5.1%, 4.9%, and 4.5% respectively [20]. 3.2 Primary Market: 24 Public REITs Funds Are Awaiting Listing - **Issuance Situation in 2025**: As of November 21, 2025, 19 public REITs have been issued since 2025, with a new issuance in November 2025 having a scale of 2.448 billion yuan [26]. - **Funds Awaiting Listing**: There are 24 public REITs funds awaiting listing, including 11 initial offerings and 13 follow - on offerings. In terms of project status, 10 have passed, 7 have been feedbacked, 4 have been questioned, 2 have been accepted, and 1 has been declared [28]. 3.3 Public REITs Policies and Market Dynamics - **Policy Support**: On November 18, 12 departments including the Beijing Branch of the People's Bank of China issued a plan to support the construction of consumer infrastructure and the commercial circulation system and encourage the issuance of REITs for eligible consumer infrastructure [31]. - **New REIT Declaration**: On November 18, the China Aviation Zhonghe Group Energy Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund was officially declared, which is the second infrastructure public REITs product within the CNNC system [33]. - **Dividend Information**: The China Merchants Fund Shekou Rental Housing REIT will have its second annual dividend, distributing 0.318 yuan per 10 shares, and the Huaxia JINMAO Commercial REIT will have its third dividend in 2025, distributing 0.3755 yuan per 10 shares [34][36]. 3.4 Investment Suggestions - The REITs index declined slightly this week, and the trading value of the public REITs market decreased. Only the water conservancy facilities REITs rose slightly, while the municipal facilities REITs had the highest decline [37]. - The market is expected to continue to expand as 24 REITs funds are waiting to be listed. Currently, public REITs have high - dividend and medium - low - risk advantages, with a relatively high allocation cost - performance ratio [3][37].