1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall inventory of iron ore continues to rise, and there are no signs of effectively resolving the inventory structural contradictions, yet the spot still has some support. After the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, and with the implementation of export license management for some steel products starting from January 1st next year, it is estimated that the iron ore price will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the support level of 750 yuan/ton for the weighted contract. [11][13][14] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipping volume was 33.686 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 454,000 tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 26.553 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.105 million tons. Australia's shipping volume was 19.674 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.47 million tons, with 15.882 million tons shipped to China, a week - on - week decrease of 29,000 tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 6.879 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.574 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 25.692 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.148 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 24.805 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.188 million tons. [13] - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output was 2.292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.16 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points. [13] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 161.1147 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.2036 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3417 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,000 tons. [13] - **Summary**: Overseas iron ore shipping volume increased slightly. Australia's shipping volume rebounded, mainly due to the rebound of Rio Tinto and FMG's shipping volume, while Brazil's shipping volume decreased. The shipping volume from non - mainstream countries reached a new high this year, and the near - end arrival volume decreased. The daily average pig iron output has fallen below 2.3 million tons. Some blast furnace overhauls were affected by environmental protection restrictions, and the rest were mainly annual inspections with relatively long shutdown times. The steel mill profitability rate declined slightly. Port inventory continued to increase, and steel mill inventory was at a low level in the same period. It is estimated that the iron ore price will fluctuate weakly. [13][14] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Difference**: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 111 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price difference was 83 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference was 138 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was - 14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 0.5 yuan/ton. [19][22] - **Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel**: The pellet feeding ratio was 14.59%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 percentage points. The lump ore feeding ratio was 12.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 percentage points. The sinter feeding ratio was 73.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35 percentage points. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,135 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price in Zhangjiagang was 2,060 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [25] - **Profit**: The steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points; the import profit of PB powder was - 13.33 yuan/wet ton. [28] - **Freight**: No specific analysis of freight changes is provided in the text, only relevant charts are presented. [30] 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 154.3142 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3061 million tons. The pellet inventory was 296,470 tons, a week - on - week increase of 59,300 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 1.31422 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 483,100 tons. The lump ore inventory was 2.05733 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 208,400 tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 66.6743 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3676 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 58.0704 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 274,900 tons. [35][38][41] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.8342 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 150,530 tons. [45] 3.4 Supply Side - **Overseas Shipping**: The shipping volume from Australia to China at 19 ports was 15.063 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36,000 tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 6.752 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.542 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipping volume to China was 6.284 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.705 million tons. BHP's shipping volume to China was 3.896 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.822 million tons. Vale's shipping volume was 4.781 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.681 million tons. FMG's shipping volume to China was 3.621 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 tons. [50][53][56] - **Arrival and Import**: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 24.805 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.188 million tons. In October, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 19.8492 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2656 million tons. [59] - **Domestic Mines**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 58.08%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 45,380 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10 tons. [65] 3.5 Demand Side - **Pig Iron Output and Capacity Utilization**: The domestic daily average pig iron output was 2.292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.16 percentage points. [70] - **Port Clearance and Steel Mill Consumption**: The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.1919 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 74,000 tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.8327 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons. [73] 3.6 Basis As of December 12th, the calculated iron ore BRBF basis was 61.03 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 7.43%. [78]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report suggests taking short - selling positions when the price rises. Iron ore is facing clear upward price pressure due to rising inventories. The market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the inventory is likely to continue to accumulate in the medium - term [1][2][19] Group 3: Supply - Recently, the shipment to the port has basically met expectations, and the supply side is relatively stable [1] Group 4: Demand - The current steel mill's hot metal production has slightly decreased to 234.68 tons (-1.6), mainly because some steel mills in the southern region have increased losses and weakening demand, leading to mill maintenance. The profit - making ratio of steel mills has continued to decline, dropping 2.6% to 35.06% month - on - month. According to the maintenance plan, the hot metal production is expected to decline slightly [6][7] Group 5: Inventory - The average daily port clearance volume of 47 ports has increased by 1.67 tons to a high of 345.06 tons. With the decrease in berthed ships, the port inventory has increased by 166.37 tons, exceeding the level of the same period last year [6][7] Group 6: Market Sentiment - This week, the Wenhua Index has been running strongly, but the Black Chain Index is still running weakly after approaching the lower limit of the range. Among them, iron - related products such as iron ore, rebar, and hot - rolled coils are strong, while products such as coking coal and coke are weak. Iron ore lacks its own driving force to break through the upper limit of the range, so it is still recommended to take short - selling positions when the price rises [6][19] Group 7: Steel Production and Inventory - This week, the output of the five major steel products has slightly rebounded, with the increase mainly coming from coil products. Rebar continues its rhythm of low output, low apparent demand, and slight inventory reduction. The pressure on hot - rolled coils is gradually emerging. Although the total inventory of hot - rolled coils is still decreasing, the rate of decline has weakened, and the overall inventory far exceeds the seasonal level. Specific data: rebar production is 206.08 (-1.88), total rebar inventory is 531.48 (-21.86), rebar apparent demand is 227.94 (-2.85); hot - rolled coil production is 319.01 (3), total hot - rolled coil inventory is 400.9 (-1.21), hot - rolled coil apparent demand is 320.22 (-4.2); the output of the five major steel products is 855.71 (5.8), the total inventory of the five major steel products is 1400.81 (-32.29), and the apparent demand of the five major steel products is 888 (-6.16) [9][10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend, with poor operability on the current trading floor, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - Coke: ★☆★ (The meaning is not clearly defined in the given content) [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability on the trading floor) [1] - Silicon Manganese: Not provided in the given content - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but low operability on the trading floor) [1] Core Views of the Report - The overall demand for steel is weak, but the supply pressure is gradually easing. The steel market has the momentum to rebound and repair the basis, but the upside is restricted by weak demand [2]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly [3]. - Coke and coking coal prices are likely to fluctuate weakly due to abundant carbon supply, seasonal decline in iron - water production, and strong price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [4][6]. - For silicon manganese, the bottom - support expectation has shifted downward due to factors such as the expected decrease in power cost and chemical coke price and the slow increase in inventory [7]. - For ferrosilicon, the bottom - support strength will be tested as the supply remains at a high level, although the overall demand still has some resilience [8]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to rebound today. The apparent demand for thread improved, production increased, and inventory decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased slightly, and inventory began to decline [2]. - Downstream acceptance capacity is insufficient, steel mills are in a loss state, and there is a high possibility of further blast - furnace production cuts. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan and other places [2]. - Real - estate investment decline continued to expand, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to decline. Domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports have declined from the high level. The spot price is relatively firm, and the futures market has the momentum to rebound and repair the basis, but weak demand restricts the upside [2]. Iron Ore - The iron - ore futures market fluctuated today. The global shipment decreased month - on - month but was still stronger than the same period. The domestic arrival volume rebounded significantly to the highest level this year, and the port inventory decreased last week and is expected to resume the accumulation trend this week [3]. - The apparent demand for steel rebounded from a low level last week, but it has entered the off - season, and steel mills' profitability is still weakening. Pig - iron production is in a seasonal decline trend, and the decline rate has slowed down. Attention should be paid to whether there will be favorable policies at the macro level [3]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are relatively loose, and the market is expected to fluctuate mainly [3]. Coke - The coke price fluctuated during the day. Coking profits are average, and daily production is slightly decreasing. Coke inventory has increased slightly, downstream purchases on a small scale as needed, and inventory changes are not significant. Traders' purchasing willingness is average [4]. - The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream pig - iron production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal decreased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. Although there is a seasonal decline in pig - iron production, the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. Steel mills' profitability is average, and they have a strong sentiment to squeeze raw - material prices. The coke futures market is at a premium, and the price is likely to fluctuate weakly [4]. Coking Coal - The coking - coal price fluctuated weakly during the day. Attention should be paid to whether the number of Mongolian coal customs - clearance vehicles will remain low due to weather factors [6]. - Coking - coal mine production has decreased slightly, spot auction transactions are average, and transaction prices are mainly falling. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream pig - iron production is still at a high level, but inventory has decreased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal decreased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. Although there is a seasonal decline in pig - iron production, the demand for raw materials still has some resilience. Steel mills' profitability is average, and they have a strong sentiment to squeeze raw - material prices. The coking - coal futures market is at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the price is likely to fluctuate weakly [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon - manganese price fluctuated during the day. The market's expectation of coal - mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is an expected decrease in power cost and chemical coke price [7]. - Pig - iron production has rebounded to a high - level range. Silicon - manganese weekly production has decreased slightly but is still at a relatively high level, and silicon - manganese inventory is slowly increasing. Spot ore prices have mixed trends, with high - grade oxidized ore rising slightly and semi - carbonate ore falling slightly. Manganese ore inventory has increased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. The bottom - support expectation has shifted downward [7]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price fluctuated during the day. The market's expectation of coal - mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is an expected decrease in power cost and blue - charcoal price [8]. - Pig - iron production has rebounded to a high - level range. Export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, and secondary demand has increased marginally. The overall demand still has some resilience. Ferrosilicon supply remains at a high level, and the bottom - support strength will be tested [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The iron ore price is stagnant at a high level, and there is no basis for independent upward movement. It is recommended to conduct range trading and sell call options. The short - term trend is mainly range - bound, with the supply peak of foreign mines passed and the demand for iron ore showing a downward trend. The inventory tends to accumulate [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalog Supply - The weekly shipment of foreign mines has continued to increase month - on - month, with significant increases in Australia and Brazil, but the arrival volume has decreased significantly month - on - month. The peak supply period of foreign mines may have passed, and the supply pressure may decrease month - on - month in the future [3]. Demand - Domestic demand has increased month - on - month mainly due to the full - production resumption in Hebei after the lifting of production restrictions. There are new blast furnace overhauls and restarts. Overall, the blast furnace operating rate and profitability continue to decline due to environmental protection and weak terminal demand, but the decline rate is not high. Considering the seasonal restocking cycle of steel mills, domestic iron ore demand still has resilience [3]. Price - The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures operates in the range of 765 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to the foreign market price of about 103.5 - 105.0 US dollars/ton [3]. Strategy - Conduct range trading and sell call options [4].

Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Hot Roll: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆, with the short - term long/short trend in a relatively balanced state and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Coking Coal: ☆☆☆, with the short - term long/short trend in a relatively balanced state and poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry has weak domestic demand, and although the macro - sentiment has improved, the rebound momentum of the futures market is insufficient. The iron ore market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state. Coke and coking coal are expected to be in a strong and volatile state. Silicon manganese has strong price support at the bottom, and silicon ferrosilicon is likely to rise [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summaries by Commodity Steel - Today's futures market rebounded slightly. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread decreased month - on - month, production declined, and the inventory reduction slowed. The demand for hot roll dropped significantly, production decreased, and inventory increased slightly. The high - level iron - making water production declined, and the downstream's ability to absorb was insufficient. With the decline in steel mill profits, the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain remains to be alleviated. Domestic demand is weak, and steel exports have declined from the high level. The futures market has gradually stabilized in the short term, but the rebound momentum is still insufficient [2] Iron Ore - Today's futures market fluctuated, and the basis has strengthened recently. The global shipment decreased month - on - month, with Australia and Brazil both showing declines. The domestic arrival volume decreased significantly month - on - month but remained at a high level for the same period. Due to the decline in steel demand in the off - season and increased losses of steel mills, iron - making water production continued to decrease last week. The futures market is expected to be in a weak and volatile state [3] Coke - The price fluctuated during the day. After the third round of price increases was quickly implemented, there is an expectation of a fourth round. Coke production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. Downstream demand is weak, and the steel industry has a strong desire to suppress raw material prices. The futures price is at a premium, and it is expected to be in a strong and volatile state [4] Coking Coal - The price fluctuated during the day. Recently, Mongolian coal imports have increased, and the customs clearance volume has remained high. Coking coal mine production decreased slightly, and the total inventory increased slightly. With the approaching safety inspection in major coal - producing areas, its impact should be noted. The futures price is at a discount to Mongolian coal, and it is expected to be in a strong and volatile state [6] Silicon Manganese - The price was in a strong and volatile state during the day. The demand side shows a continuous decline in iron - making water production. Silicon manganese production decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and inventory gradually increased. The price of manganese ore has a strong bottom - support, and the price is expected to be stable [7] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The price was in a strong and volatile state during the day. The demand side shows a continuous decline in iron - making water production, but export demand has increased to about 40,000 tons, and the secondary demand has increased marginally. Supply remains high, and inventory has been decreasing. Due to the increase in electricity and blue - carbon prices, the price is likely to rise [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was good yesterday, but the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and volatile trend. The demand for steel has officially entered the off - season, and there are still inventory risks for hot - rolled coils. Future attention should be paid to the pace of production cuts. With the implementation of the Fed's easing expectations and positive signals from the China - US meeting, the market sentiment and capital environment are expected to improve, and the consumption side of steel may gradually recover. In the short term, demand is still weak, but there may be an inflection point in the future [2]. - For iron ore, due to environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel mill profits, the demand side continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains high. After the macro - events are realized, the fundamentals of iron ore are weak, and the price is expected to run weakly in the short term [5]. - Regarding manganese silicon and silicon iron, the fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, and potential drivers may come from the manganese ore end. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and both are likely to follow the black - sector market [10]. - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure persists, and the demand support is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking range is limited [13][16]. - In the glass market, the short - term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and future attention should be paid to downstream orders and capacity changes. For soda ash, the price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [19][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Conditions - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3037 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.429%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 118,534 tons, with no change. The main - contract open interest decreased by 11,428 lots to 2.020353 million lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3190 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3256 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.092%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 889 tons to 99,412 tons. The main - contract open interest decreased by 7743 lots to 1.365348 million lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai remained unchanged at 3270 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Views - The supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance. The demand for hot - rolled coils declined significantly, and the inventory showed reverse - seasonal accumulation. The steel demand has entered the off - season, and the risk of hot - rolled coil inventory still exists. Future attention should be paid to the production - cut rhythm. With the improvement of the macro - environment, the demand may recover in the future [2]. Iron Ore Market Conditions - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 777.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.19% (+1.50). The open interest decreased by 7164 lots to 537,500 lots. The weighted open interest was 937,000 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 57.04 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.83% [4]. Strategy Views - The overseas iron - ore shipment volume decreased, but it was still at a high level in the same period. The demand for iron ore weakened, and the port inventory and steel - mill inventory increased. Affected by environmental protection restrictions and the decline in steel - mill profits, the iron - ore demand continued to weaken, and the price was expected to run weakly in the short term [5]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Conditions - On November 6, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed up 0.38% at 5798 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 72 yuan/ton. The main contract of silicon iron (SF601) closed up 0.47% at 5586 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a basis of 14 yuan/ton [7][8]. Strategy Views - The fundamentals of manganese silicon were not ideal, and potential drivers might come from the manganese ore end. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals had no obvious contradictions, and both were likely to follow the black - sector market [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Conditions - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 9065 yuan/ton, up 0.50% (+45). The open interest increased by 1917 lots to 400,305 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China remained unchanged at 9300 yuan/ton, with a basis of 235 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 remained unchanged at 9700 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 165 yuan/ton [12]. - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 53,395 yuan/ton, up 0.07% (+40). The open interest decreased by 4850 lots to 225,552 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, with a basis of - 1195 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy Views - For industrial silicon, the supply - side pressure persisted, and the demand support was weakening. It was expected to fluctuate in the short term. For polysilicon, the supply - demand pattern might improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking range was limited [13][16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Conditions - The glass main contract closed at 1101 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 0.36% (+4). The price of large - size glass in North China remained unchanged at 1130 yuan, and the price in Central China increased by 20 yuan to 1140 yuan. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 2.654 million boxes (-4.03%) to 63.136 million boxes. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 9576 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 10,400 lots [18]. - The soda - ash main contract closed at 1207 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, up 1.00% (+12). The price of heavy - ash in Shahe increased by 12 yuan to 1157 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises increased by 12,200 tons to 1.7142 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 5605 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 22,126 lots [20]. Strategy Views - In the glass market, the short - term market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, and future attention should be paid to downstream orders and capacity changes. For soda ash, the price is expected to continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [19][21].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The macro - driving force has weakened, the sector is oscillating weakly; in the short term, the supply - demand of coal and coke has marginal fluctuations, generally remaining at a relatively high level, with no significant inventory pressure, and the price is oscillating in the range of 1080 - 1320 [3]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Situation - Affected by the weak prices of steel and ore, the futures prices of coal and coke followed the downward trend, and the prices fell after reaching the upper limit of the 1080 - 1320 oscillation range. The spot market is generally stable with a slight upward trend, and the third round of coke price increases has been gradually implemented, with a cumulative increase of 150 - 165 yuan/ton [2]. - The DCE issued an announcement on publicly soliciting opinions on adjusting the coking coal delivery quality standard. The overall content has little change, mainly adjusting the premium and discount range of the reaction strength and sulfur content after coking coal is made into coke, and the new standard further aligns the mainstream delivery mines with Shanxi coal, having no impact on the current existing contracts [2]. Fundamental Data - Last week, the daily average output of coking coal from domestic coal mines was 75.8 tons, a slight decrease of 0.3 tons compared with the previous week [3]. - At the import end, the daily average clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week rebounded to 16.43 tons, an increase of 5.6 tons compared with the previous week, returning to a relatively high level [3]. - The steel mill profit continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped to about 45%. Historically, the current profitability rate will not lead to large - scale production cuts by steel mills. The daily average pig iron output last week dropped to 236.36 tons, a decrease of 3.55 tons compared with the previous week, mainly due to environmental protection pressure in some areas of Hebei [3]. Later Concerns - With the approaching end of the peak demand season, the pressure on finished products is increasing, and the pig iron output tends to decline. Attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end [3]. - Later, attention should be paid to the changes in the blast furnace start - up of steel mills and the resumption of production in coal mines [3].

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a mixed trend with weak spot prices, while the demand and supply dynamics indicate a potential for inventory adjustments and production cuts in response to market conditions [1][2][3][4][5][6] Supply - Iron element production increased by 5% year-on-year from January to September, but the growth rate narrowed in October due to environmental restrictions in Tangshan, leading to a decrease in molten iron output by 30,000 tons to 2.37 million tons [3] - The production of the five major steel products remained stable year-on-year, with a slight increase of 100,000 tons to 8.75 million tons, although the output of rebar and hot-rolled steel fell short of demand [3] Demand - Domestic demand expectations remain weak, while exports are holding at high levels, supported by low prices [4] - The total demand for steel has recovered to a year-on-year flat position, with an increase of 240,000 tons to 9.12 million tons, particularly for rebar and hot-rolled steel [4] Inventory - Inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 410,000 tons to 15.13 million tons, with rebar and hot-rolled steel inventories also declining [5] - Despite the decrease in inventory, production levels are below demand, indicating a potential for continued inventory reduction, although the rate of reduction for hot-rolled steel is slower [5] Cost and Profit - Steel profits have significantly declined from high levels, with the current profit ranking from highest to lowest being billet, hot-rolled, rebar, and cold-rolled [2] - The cost support for iron element is weak, while carbon element costs provide some support [2] Market Outlook - The steel market is expected to continue its downward trend, with the need to compress profits to curb production [6] - The focus remains on the supply side of coking coal, with rebar and hot-rolled steel expected to trade within specific price ranges [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In October, steel prices first declined and then rose. High hot metal production on the supply - side and weak real - estate and infrastructure data on the demand - side suppressed market expectations. Industrial policies provided short - term upward momentum, and the main rebound power came from the raw material side, especially the continuous disturbances in the coking coal supply. - From the perspective of steel supply and demand, hot metal production has dropped to the level of the same period last year. Due to high previous steel mill production, few overhauls, and low current profits, there is still room for further decline in hot metal production after November. Construction steel demand is lackluster, with no signs of recovery in housing construction and infrastructure. Coil demand is expected to remain at a relatively high level supported by exports, and overall demand is moderately weak. - In November, with the lack of strong trading drivers, steel is unlikely to have large - scale unilateral trends and will remain range - bound. Taking the rebar 2601 contract as a reference, the expected range is [3000, 3200]. The reduction in hot metal is expected to ease the inventory pressure of coils. Coking coal on the raw material side faces potential supply - side disturbances, which may provide continuous support, but low steel mill profits and reduced hot metal production will limit the upside of raw materials [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In October, the steel market first declined and then rose, with a limited fluctuation range. After the National Day, steel demand recovered slowly, and overall steel inventory was high, causing the futures price to decline. During this period, the basis strengthened, and the spot price showed resilience. The futures price stabilized around 3020 and gradually rebounded, supported by supply disturbances in the coking coal market, new regulations on steel production capacity conversion, and the China - US summit. In October, the main rebar contract rose 1.7%, hot - rolled coil rose 2.2%, iron ore rose 2.6%, coke rose 11.7%, and coking coal rose 16.6% [6]. 3.2 Monetary and Social Financing - The growth rates of M1 and M2 generally showed an upward trend, and the M1 - M2 gap continued to widen. In September, the incremental social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock declined, and the year - on - year difference between social financing and M2 was at a low level [9]. 3.3 Price Index - In September, the CPI was - 0.3% (compared to - 0.4% in August), and the PPI was - 2.3%, with the decline narrowing. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8 [12]. 3.4 Monthly Steel Data - From January to September, the cumulative production of crude steel decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, indicating that the pressure to control annual crude steel production is not significant. The year - on - year decline in pig iron production was 1.1%, significantly lower than that of crude steel, indicating a decrease in the proportion of scrap steel added in the converter process. Steel exports increased significantly, with an increase of 7250000 tons in steel exports and 7320000 tons in billet exports from January to September [13]. 3.5 Weekly Data of Five Major Steel Products - As of October 31, 2025, the total weekly production of five major steel products was 875290 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9970 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.04%. The total weekly consumption was 916000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.28%. The total inventory was 1514000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41130 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 22.58% [14]. 3.6 Steel Production - According to the production data of five major steel products released by Steel Union, production has been relatively stable this year, with less fluctuation compared to previous years. Steel mills had good profits earlier this year, which supported production enthusiasm. However, since entering the fourth quarter, the profitability of steel mills has declined, and production may decrease significantly due to few overhauls during the year [17]. 3.7 Steel Production Profit - Currently, blast furnace profits have significantly declined compared to the previous period. The single - ton profit of rebar has dropped from 200 - 300 yuan to near the break - even point, and some steel mills in certain regions are already in the red. Electric furnace profits have been poor this year and are unlikely to improve significantly in November [18]. 3.8 Steel Demand - Demand has shown a counter - seasonal rebound in the past two weeks, but overall demand in November is expected to decline month - on - month. Construction steel demand remains weak, while coil demand is relatively strong, supported by exports [40]. 3.9 Steel Inventory and Basis - In October, the rebar basis was weak, with the 01 basis falling by about 30 yuan/ton. The narrowing of the basis mainly occurred during the second - half - month futures price rebound, indicating that although the spot price has some resilience, weak demand still exerts pressure. The hot - rolled coil basis also declined, with the 01 basis falling by 60 - 70 yuan/ton compared to the end of September, a larger decline than that of rebar. High inventories of hot - rolled coils suppress the spot price [79][84]. 3.10 Steel Spread - The 1 - 5 spread of rebar is running at a low level, fluctuating around - 60, with little change. Weak demand suppresses the spread, but since it is already at the lowest level in recent years, the downward space is limited. The 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil fluctuates around - 10, also with little change [89][93].