铁水产量

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《黑色》日报-20250619
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 01:00
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints Steel - The steel market follows the fluctuations of coking coal and coke. Rebound short - selling operations or selling out - of - the - money call options are recommended. Pay attention to the pressure levels of 3150 yuan for hot - rolled coils and 3050 yuan for rebar [1]. Iron Ore - In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the iron ore price due to the expected decline in hot - metal production, supply increase, and administrative reduction. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains unchanged. The price range may shift down to 720 - 670 [4]. Coke - There are still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of price cuts in the future. For the 2509 contract, short - selling at high levels around 1380 - 1430 is recommended. A strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke can be considered [6]. Coking Coal - Spot fundamentals have improved slightly. Short - selling at high levels around 800 - 850 for the 2509 contract is recommended. A strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke can be considered [6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand contradiction is rising. In the short term, the price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the change in coal prices [7]. Silicomanganese - Supply pressure still exists. In the short term, the price is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the change in coke prices [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and futures prices also rose. The basis of steel showed a weak trend [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. Some steel production costs changed, and the profits of some regions increased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot - metal output remained unchanged, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 2.4%. Steel inventories decreased slightly [1]. Viewpoint - The steel market is affected by the raw material market and seasonal factors. Production is expected to remain high, and exports rebounded from a low level [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs and spot prices of various iron ore varieties decreased, and the basis of the 09 contract declined significantly [4]. Supply and Demand - Global shipments decreased slightly, mainly from Australia. The arrival volume decreased slightly, and demand is expected to remain stable in the short term [4]. Inventory - Port inventories increased, and steel mills' equity ore inventories also rose [4]. Viewpoint - There are risks of weakening demand in the off - season, and supply pressure will increase. The price is expected to decline [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Futures prices rose slightly, while spot prices were weakly stable. There are still expectations of price cuts in the future [6]. Supply and Demand - Supply decreased due to environmental protection, and demand showed a downward trend [6]. Inventory - Inventories at coking plants, ports, and steel mills all decreased [6]. Viewpoint - There are expectations of further price cuts. Short - selling at high levels is recommended [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Futures prices rose slightly, and spot prices were weakly stable. The basis was repaired [6]. Supply and Demand - Domestic production decreased slightly, and imported coal prices continued to decline. Demand showed a downward trend [6]. Inventory - Coal mine inventories and port inventories increased, and downstream inventories were at a medium level [6]. Viewpoint - Spot fundamentals improved slightly. Short - selling at high levels is recommended [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - Futures prices rose slightly, and some spot prices increased. The basis changed [7]. Cost and Profit - Production costs decreased slightly, and losses decreased [7]. Supply and Demand - Production and demand both decreased [7]. Inventory - Inventories increased slightly [7]. Viewpoint - The supply - demand contradiction is rising, and the price is expected to be weak [7]. Silicomanganese Prices and Spreads - Futures prices rose slightly, and spot prices increased. The basis changed [7]. Cost and Profit - Production costs changed slightly, and profits improved [7]. Supply and Demand - Supply increased slightly, and demand decreased [7]. Inventory - Manganese ore inventories increased, and silicomanganese inventories increased [7]. Viewpoint - Supply pressure still exists, and the price is expected to decline [7].
成材:弱需求下钢价延续弱势
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 02:41
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests treating the market by short - selling on rebounds [3] - The steel market is still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds based on the current situation [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Steel Industry Operating Data - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 56.73%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.97 percentage points The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.44%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 2.4161 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 million tons [2] Home Appliance Industry Sales Data - According to Aowei Cloud Network, the offline retail sales of color TVs in May increased by 34.2% year - on - year; among various white - goods categories in May, the offline retail sales of refrigerators, freezers, washing machines, independent dryers, and air conditioners increased by 29.3%, 8.6%, 28.7%, 41.0%, and 38.7% year - on - year respectively [2] Steel Market Analysis - Last week, the steel price moved sideways The good communication between China and the US at the macro - level had a certain impact on the price, but the driving force was insufficient The market mainly traded based on the industry fundamentals The steel fundamentals announced by the Steel Union last week were normal without many highlights Overall, the steel still faced a situation of strong supply and weak demand The steel mill operating rate and pig iron output remained at a high level, but the downstream had entered the off - season High temperature, rainfall, and the high - school entrance examination and college entrance examination affected construction, and there were no signs of short - term improvement in the downstream, and there was even room for further decline [2] Later Focus - Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand situations [3]
港口库存仍然居高不下 预计铁矿石期货震荡走势
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-11 06:07
Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals shows a predominantly positive trend, with iron ore futures experiencing fluctuations around 700.0 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 708.0 CNY and a low of 699.0 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.14% [1] - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures indicates a slight increase in port inventory, suggesting a slightly loose supply due to a rise in overseas shipments and arrivals, which are at the highest level for the same period in the last three years [1] - Demand from steel mills is weakening as maintenance and shutdowns increase during the off-season, leading to a continued decline in molten iron production [1] Group 2 - Zhongcai Futures analyzes that the overall supply of iron ore is strong while demand is weak, with an increase in shipments and arrivals expected to lead to a loose supply situation [1] - The average daily molten iron production is expected to continue declining as steel mills operate based on demand, indicating a weakening demand side [1] - Despite high port inventories, the high daily consumption of molten iron is expected to provide short-term support for iron ore prices, maintaining a view of weak fluctuations [2]
加蓬将于29年起停止锰矿原矿出口 锰硅有所反弹
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-04 08:27
6月4日,锰硅期货主力合约大幅收涨2.12%,报5502.00元/吨。 机构观点 【消息面汇总】 瑞达期货(002961):基本面来看,厂家减产开工率来到同期低位,但是库存整体仍偏高,成本端,本 期原料端进口锰矿石港口库存下降13.5万吨,下游铁水产量见顶回落,谨防需求回落后价格波动变大。 利润方面,内蒙古现货利润-210元/吨;宁夏现货利润-430元/吨。市场方面,钢厂采购较为谨慎,招标 价格延续下跌。技术方面,4小时周期K线位于20和60均线下方,操作上,震荡运行对待,请投资者注 意风险控制。 据悉某集团最新硅锰采购情况公布,送安徽价格5400元/吨,数量500吨,送云浮价格5550元/吨,数量 500吨;以上均为现款含税价格。 国投安信期货:价格大幅下行后有所反弹。由于前期持续的减产,库存水平有所下降,不过周都产量开 始回升,基本面好转有限。从锰矿预计到港数据来看,South32澳矿将会在本月底到港五万吨左右。铁 水产量持续小幅下滑,硅锰供应稍有上行。锰矿库存开启趋势性累增,市场预期有所转变,价格依旧疲 弱。 截至5月30日当周,天津港(600717)港口锰矿库存为312.9万吨,环比减少11.7万吨; ...
山金期货黑色板块日报-20250604
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 03:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - For the steel market, with Trump raising steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, there is greater pressure on steel exports. The policy - driven positive factors have basically been priced in. The real - estate market in core cities has stabilized, while that in lower - tier cities is still bottoming out. The peak of apparent demand has passed, and with the arrival of the rainy season and high - temperature weather, demand will further weaken. The market is shifting from strong reality to weak reality, and the weak expectation remains unchanged. Technically, prices have broken through the recent trading range and are expected to continue the downward trend [1]. - For the iron ore market, steel mills' profitability is acceptable, but iron - water production is expected to decline further due to the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel - mill production restrictions. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory decline is slowing down, and the high proportion of trade - mine inventory exerts pressure on futures prices. The futures price may break downward under the influence of falling steel prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Factors**: Trump's tariff increase, real - estate market conditions, demand seasonality, and limited impact of production - cut rumors. The market is changing from strong to weak reality, and prices are expected to continue falling [1]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions [1]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of threaded - steel and hot - rolled - coil futures and spot prices have declined. For example, the threaded - steel futures main - contract closing price is 2,928 yuan/ton, down 1.74% from last week [1]. - **Production**: The national building - materials steel - mill threaded - steel production is 225.51 tons, down 2.58% from last week, while hot - rolled - coil production is 319.55 tons, up 4.54% [1]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of five major steel products has decreased. For instance, the threaded - steel social inventory is 394.59 tons, down 5.25% from last week [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The national building - materials trading volume (7 - day moving average) is 13.95 tons, down 30.08% from last week [1]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Market Factors**: Steel mills' iron - water production is expected to decline. The global iron - ore shipment is rising seasonally, and port inventory decline is slowing. The futures price may break downward [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [3]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of DCE iron - ore futures main contract is 695.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.43% from last week. Spot prices of various iron - ore powders have also declined [3]. - **Shipment**: The global iron - ore shipment in the week of May 27 - June 2, 2025, is 3,431.0 tons, up 242.3 tons from the previous week [5]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore is 13,866.58 tons, down 0.87% from last week. The inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills is 1,210.52 tons, down 2.65% [3]. - **Shipping and Exchange Rates**: BCI freight rates have increased, and the US dollar index has risen 0.55% [3].
市场主流观点汇总-20250520
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 10:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price trends, strategy viewpoints, and corresponding利多 and利空 logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From May 12 to May 16, 2025, ethylene glycol had the highest weekly increase of 5.74% among commodities, while gold had the largest decline of 4.64%. Other commodities like iron ore, PTA, etc., also had different degrees of price changes [3]. - **Equities**: The NASDAQ Index had a significant increase of 7.15%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.09%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 0.10% [3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese government bonds of 5 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year terms all had price increases, with the 5 - year bond rising 4.06% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index increased by 0.56%, while the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.76% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors include successful Sino - US tariff negotiations, a relatively loose market capital supply, and growth in the social financing scale.利空 factors are net out - flow of industry funds, reduction in ETF shares, and conservative domestic policies [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are the unchanged loose monetary policy and reduced expectations of fiscal stimulus.利空 factors are the recovery of market risk appetite and limited space for further interest - rate cuts [5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are low global crude oil inventories, positive Sino - US negotiation results, and potential uncertainty in OPEC+ production increases.利空 factors are Iran's potential nuclear - deal signing and an increase in US crude oil inventories [6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are the growth of Malaysian palm oil shipping data, increased export competitiveness, and potential replenishment demand in India.利空 factors are high inventory pressure and a decline in crude oil prices [6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are low copper concentrate TC, positive Sino - US tariff negotiations, and strong terminal demand.利空 factors are weak overseas demand and high inventory in China [7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are concentrated maintenance in May and high exports.利空 factors are high industry inventory, new production capacity, and weak downstream demand [7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors are the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and geopolitical uncertainties.利空 factors are the recovery of risk appetite and capital out - flow from gold ETFs [8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are high molten iron production and low port inventory.利空 factors are expected increase in supply and weakening demand [8].
【期货热点追踪】5-6月铁水产量下行空间有限,叠加市场乐观情绪仍在,机构预计铁矿石年均价格为……
news flash· 2025-05-16 03:24
期货热点追踪 5-6月铁水产量下行空间有限,叠加市场乐观情绪仍在,机构预计铁矿石年均价格为…… 相关链接 ...
铁矿石:铁水大幅增长 限产消息扰动
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-04-29 02:11
【现货】 主流矿粉现货价格:日照港(600017)PB粉+3至764元/吨,巴混粉+6至778元/吨。 【期货】 截止昨日收盘,铁矿主力合约+0.21%(+1.5),收于710.5元/吨。 【库存】 截至4月24日,45港库存14261万吨,环比+205万吨;周内铁矿到港量环比回升,港口卸货效率提升, 港口有所累库,且压港船只数量依旧偏高。钢厂进口矿库存环比+20.11至9073.03万吨,进口矿日耗环 比小幅增加,钢厂维持原料低库存策略。 【观点】 最优交割品为巴混。PB粉和巴混粉仓单成本分别为809元和797元。05合约PB粉基差46.6元/吨左右。 【需求】 日均铁水产量244.35万吨,环比+4.23万吨;高炉开工率84.33%,环比+0.77%;高炉炼铁产能利用率 91.60%,环比+1.45个百分点;钢厂盈利率57.58%,环比+2.60百分点。 【供给】 本周全球发运环比小幅回升。全球发运+262.7万吨至3188.2万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2758.4万吨, 环比增加320.6万吨。澳洲发运量1995.2万吨,环比增加196.0万吨,其中澳洲发往中国的量1647.2万吨, 环比增加72.9万 ...