Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing a transition from a consumption off-season to a peak season, with cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [3] - Nickel ore prices remain stable, with mainstream transaction prices for 1.3% nickel ore around CIF 42 and for 1.4% nickel ore around CIF 50 [3] - Domestic stainless steel production is expected to increase in August, with a projected output of 330.41 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.29% [1] Pricing and Inventory - As of August 18, the price of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, while in Foshan it remains stable at 13,050 yuan/ton [1] - Social inventory of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan is 49.65 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.5 million tons [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall profit margins for steel mills have improved, leading to increased production motivation, which may exert pressure on supply in August [3] - Despite seasonal and policy improvements in demand expectations, the actual terminal demand remains weak, with traditional downstream sectors showing sluggish demand [3] - The chromium iron price is expected to remain strong due to cost support from chromium ore [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - Palm oil futures have shown a significant increase in price and trading volume, indicating a bullish trend in the market despite underlying supply and demand challenges [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of August 11, 2025, palm oil futures closed at 9460 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.97% [1] - The trading volume increased by 175,121 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - The weekly trading range was between 8914 yuan/ton and 9536 yuan/ton [1] Import and Cost Analysis - The CNF price for 24-degree palm oil for September-October shipments rose by 30 to 49 USD/ton, reaching 1118 USD/ton and 1105 USD/ton respectively [2] - The landed cost in South China increased by 260 to 430 yuan/ton, amounting to 9580 yuan/ton and 9450 yuan/ton [2] - India's palm oil imports in July were 855,695 tons, down from 955,683 tons in June [2] Supply and Demand Insights - Malaysia is entering a seasonal production increase, with expectations of the highest inventory levels in nearly two years [3] - Domestic consumption in China remains weak, with low port inventories and a declining spot basis [3] - Competition from alternative oils, particularly soybean oil, is exerting downward pressure on palm oil prices [3] Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - The market is currently in an overbought condition, suggesting limited short-term upward momentum [3] - If supply continues to increase without a corresponding improvement in demand, palm oil futures may face further downward pressure [3] - The domestic oilseed supply remains stable, with a neutral outlook for palm oil prices in the near term [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a clear correction trend from August 11 to August 15, with the ChiNext Index rising the most at 8.58%, and the ChiNext 50 increasing by 9.90, indicating continued attractiveness in the growth sector after a short-term adjustment [2] - The major indices performed as follows: the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.70%, briefly surpassing the 3700-point mark, while the Wind first-level average increase was 2.03% with 89% of the Wind 100 concept index recording gains [2] - Sector performance was mixed, with telecommunications, electronics, and non-bank financials performing well, increasing by 7.66%, 7.02%, and 6.48% respectively, while textiles, steel, and banking sectors weakened, declining by 1.37%, 2.04%, and 3.19% respectively [2] Fund Issuance - A total of 23 funds were issued last week, including 14 equity funds, 6 mixed funds, and 3 bond funds, with a total issuance of 9.946 billion units [16] Fund Performance - The Wind All Fund Index rose by 1.83% last week, with the ordinary equity fund index increasing by 3.82% and the mixed equity fund index rising by 3.85% [8] - The bond fund index saw a slight decline of 0.02%, indicating a challenging environment for fixed-income investments [8] Global Asset Review - Global asset performance showed divergence, with developed markets like the US maintaining upward momentum supported by resilient tech earnings and policy expectations, while emerging markets displayed greater elasticity, particularly in Vietnam and Russia [4] - The energy sector experienced increased volatility, with oil and gas prices affected by supply-demand rebalancing and geopolitical risks, while metal prices remained resilient due to new energy demand and supply disruptions [4] Domestic Bond Market Review - The national bond futures index (CFFEX 10-year) fell by 0.29%, and the 30-year national bond futures main contract dropped by 1.48%, indicating significant downward pressure on long-term interest rates [12]

Group 1 - The global phenol and acetone market is facing dual pressures of weak demand and oversupply, with participants pessimistic about recovery prospects until the second half of 2025 [2] - In Europe, market participants have little hope for demand recovery for the remainder of the year due to oversupply, with Orlen's decision to halt production unlikely to alleviate the situation [2] - European phenol and acetone prices have remained weak, with July 29 assessments showing acetone at €600 per ton (down 33.3% since January) and phenol at €771 per ton (down 26% since January) [2] Group 2 - In the U.S., market participants expect stability in phenol and acetone markets by year-end, but low housing starts and renovation projects due to inflationary pressures will suppress demand [3] - U.S. acetone demand has stagnated since 2023, with expectations of continued weakness until 2025, and the market may face oversupply requiring increased exports [3] - As of July 22, U.S. Gulf acetone was priced at $992 per ton (down 4% since January) and phenol at $1,046 per ton (down 8% since January) [3] Group 3 - Asia is expected to continue increasing production capacity, with supply to India rising in the second half of the year, despite slow growth in solvent demand [4] - Indian phenol prices have dropped to near two-year lows, and acetone prices have reached 31-month lows due to increased supply from Asian suppliers [4] - The Asian phenol market may experience intensified oversupply due to seasonal weakening and ongoing capacity expansion, with producers facing further margin pressure [4]

Core Viewpoint - The German economy contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter, contrasting with a 0.4% growth in the first quarter, primarily due to weakened demand from the United States [1] Economic Performance - The contraction in the second quarter is attributed to a slowdown in U.S. demand, which previously led to increased imports of German goods as importers anticipated higher tariffs [1] - Investment in Germany saw a decline in the second quarter, while consumption and government spending increased compared to the previous three months [1]

Group 1 - The UK retail sector continues to experience a decline for the 10th consecutive month, with July's retail sales indicator at -34, an improvement from June's -46, indicating persistent weak demand [1] - Rising prices driven by increased labor costs and economic uncertainty are pressuring consumer demand, leading to a decrease in sales since October 2024 [1] - The decision by the Chancellor to raise social security contributions for businesses and increase the minimum wage has contributed to rising prices [1] Group 2 - The weak demand is reflected across the distribution industry, with declines also reported in wholesale and automotive sales [1]

Core Insights - The Bank of Canada has conducted a survey indicating that many businesses are absorbing tariff costs due to competitive pressures and weak demand [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - Businesses are facing increased costs from tariffs, which they are unable to pass on to consumers due to competitive market conditions [1] - The survey highlights a significant concern among companies regarding the impact of tariffs on their profitability and pricing strategies [1] Group 2: Industry Response - Companies are adapting to the current economic environment by finding ways to manage and mitigate the financial burden of tariffs [1] - The findings suggest a potential shift in business strategies as firms navigate the challenges posed by both tariffs and subdued demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of United Airlines indicated that uncertainty is leading to weak demand in the first five months of 2025 [1] Group 1 - The airline industry is experiencing a decline in demand due to various uncertainties affecting consumer confidence [1] - United Airlines is closely monitoring market conditions to adapt its strategies accordingly [1] - The CEO emphasized the importance of understanding these uncertainties to navigate the upcoming challenges [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's ultimatum to Russia on palm oil prices, highlighting concerns over demand weakness and profit-taking that led to the end of a two-day price increase for palm oil [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Trump's ultimatum to Russia has created uncertainty in the market, influencing investor sentiment and trading behavior [1] - Profit-taking activities have been observed, contributing to the decline in palm oil prices after a brief rally [1] Group 2: Demand Concerns - There are growing worries about weak demand for palm oil, which may affect future price stability [1] - The ability of palm oil to maintain key support levels is in question due to these demand concerns [1]

Group 1 - The company, Bohai Chemical (600800), expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately -380 million to -340 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [1] - After excluding non-recurring gains and losses, the expected net profit attributable to shareholders is around -378 million to -338 million yuan for the same period [1] - The chemical industry is facing a dual challenge of overcapacity and weak demand in the first half of 2025, particularly affecting the PDH sector [1] Group 2 - The market supply-demand imbalance, combined with the impact of propane import tariffs, is increasing the company's raw material procurement costs [1] - The operational pressure on the company is significantly rising due to these challenges in the industry [1]