1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - For copper, the LME copper price dropped by $30 during the New Year's Day holiday. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting production decreased month - on - month, it still shows high growth overall. Power investment is stable, auto production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market is continuously weak. Supply disruptions in mines have shifted the global copper supply - demand outlook towards a deficit, and short - term copper prices are more affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - For zinc, the LME zinc price rose by $14 during the New Year's Day holiday. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting production continues to grow. The galvanized sheet inventory is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, auto production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market is continuously weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the current sentiment of the non - ferrous metals market as a whole needs to be noted. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Metal Price and Market Conditions - Copper: The LME copper price dropped by $30 during the New Year's Day holiday, with a domestic previous - day futures closing price of 98,800 yuan/ton, a domestic basis of - 240 yuan/ton, a previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price of $12,461/ton, an LME spot premium of $38.60/ton, an LME inventory of 147,425 tons, and an inventory daily change of - 2,050 tons [2]. - Aluminum: The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,950 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 220 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price is $3,021/ton, the LME spot premium is - $24.94/ton, the LME inventory is 511,750 tons, and the inventory daily change is - 2,500 tons [2]. - Zinc: The LME zinc price rose by $14 during the New Year's Day holiday, with a domestic previous - day futures closing price of 23,400 yuan/ton, a domestic basis of 115 yuan/ton, a previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price of $3,127/ton, an LME spot premium of - $36.25/ton, an LME inventory of 107,625 tons, and an inventory daily change of 1,300 tons [2]. - Nickel: The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 130,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 4,500 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price is $16,760/ton, the LME spot premium is - $143.68/ton, the LME inventory is 255,162 tons, and the inventory daily change is - 24 tons [2]. - Lead: The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 17,315 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 70 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price is $1,994/ton, the LME spot premium is - $46.54/ton, the LME inventory is 241,925 tons, and the inventory daily change is - 3,350 tons [2]. - Tin: The domestic previous - day futures closing price is 327,680 yuan/ton, the domestic basis is - 4,520 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price is $40,250/ton, the LME spot premium is - $1.00/ton, the LME inventory is 5,420 tons, and the inventory daily change is 90 tons [2]. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Copper: The concentrate supply is tight, smelting production shows high growth, power investment is stable, auto production and sales grow positively, home appliance production declines, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disruptions in mines have led to an expected supply - demand deficit [2]. - Zinc: Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, smelting production continues to grow, the galvanized sheet inventory is high, infrastructure investment growth is slowing, auto production and sales grow positively, home appliance production declines, and the real estate market is weak [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 5, 2026, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads for different commodities such as thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][2][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The report provides the basis data of thermal coal from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025. During this period, the basis values are - 125.4, - 129.4, - 131.4, - 131.4, and - 123.4 respectively, and the spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month are all 0.0 [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - It presents the basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [6] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [8] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 5 - month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given [9] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are presented [9] 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [19] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month(10) vs 1 - month, 9 - month(10) vs 5 - month) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given [18] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are presented [18] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [27] 3.4.2 London Market - The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 31, 2025, are presented [30] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [36] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 5 - month) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given [36] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are presented [36] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [47] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given [47]

Group 1: Report Core View - Before the holiday, the 380 cracking spread fluctuated, and after the holiday, it weakened slightly. The 380 monthly spread rebounded from its low point but remained weak year-on-year. The high-sulfur cracking spread in Europe weakened, and the monthly spread oscillated at a low level. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore oscillated at a historical low, with the structure turning to C at a historical low and the basis oscillating at a historical low [5]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil significantly increased in inventory, the high-sulfur floating storage significantly decreased in inventory, ARA's residual oil slightly increased in inventory, Fujairah's residual oil decreased in inventory, the high-sulfur floating storage decreased in inventory, and EIA's residual oil slightly increased in inventory. The conflict in Venezuela escalated over the weekend, which has a short-term positive and long-term negative impact on heavy crude oil. Attention should be paid to the duration of logistics interruption. The arrival premium of Merey crude oil at the end of December remained around -12. The high-sulfur spot market remained loose. Attention should be paid to the boost brought by the premium of heavy raw materials recently. The low-sulfur market maintained a weak oscillation pattern [6]. Group 2: Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From December 25 to December 31, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed by 1.66, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed by 0.83, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed by 0.38, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed by -6.29, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed by 7.12, LGO - Brent M1 changed by -0.16, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed by -0.83 [3]. Group 3: Singapore Fuel Oil Data Swap Data - From December 25 to December 31, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed by 0.51, Singapore 180cst M1 changed by -1.75, Singapore VLSFO M1 changed by -4.87, Singapore Gasoil M1 changed by 0.26, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed by 0.30, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed by -6.80 [3]. Spot Data - From December 26 to December 31, 2025, the price of Singapore FOB 380cst changed by -0.04, FOB VLSFO changed by -2.74, 380 basis changed by -0.55, high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference changed by -1.6, and low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference changed by 0.0 [4]. Group 4: Domestic FU Data - From December 25 to December 31, 2025, the price of FU 01 changed by -75, FU 05 changed by -20, FU 09 changed by -18, FU 01 - 05 changed by -55, FU 05 - 09 changed by -2, and FU 09 - 01 changed by 57 [4]. Group 5: Domestic LU Data - From December 25 to December 31, 2025, the price of LU 01 changed by -245, LU 05 changed by -40, LU 09 changed by -32, LU 01 - 05 changed by -205, LU 05 - 09 changed by -8, and LU 09 - 01 changed by 213 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views 2.1 Stock Index Futures - The report presents the latest values, historical quantiles, and changes compared to the previous day of various stock index futures spreads, including price spreads between futures and spot, and spreads between different contract months, as well as cross - variety ratios [1] 2.2 Bond Futures - It shows the latest values, changes, and historical quantiles of basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different bond futures contracts [2] 2.3 Precious Metals - Gold has seen a correction in the domestic market, while the external market has shown an increase. The future market may focus on US economic data's impact on Fed policies and geopolitical situations in South America. Platinum and palladium may gradually return to stability, with platinum's price center rising. Silver may face callback risks due to global commodity index rebalancing [3] 2.4 Container Shipping Industry - The container shipping index and freight rates have shown certain fluctuations. The European and US - bound routes have different trends in terms of price changes. The futures prices of related contracts also have corresponding changes, and various fundamental data such as shipping capacity supply, port conditions, and overseas economic indicators are presented [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Price Spreads between Futures and Spot**: F, H, IC, and IM futures all have corresponding price spreads between futures and spot, with different historical quantiles and changes compared to the previous day. For example, the F futures' price spread between futures and spot is - 30.14, and it has changed by - 1.06 compared to the previous day [1] - **Cross - Period Spreads**: There are various cross - period spreads for different contracts, such as between the next month and the current month, the far month and the next month, etc., with different historical quantiles and changes [1] - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Ratios such as IC/IF, IC/IH, etc. are presented, along with their historical quantiles and changes [1] 3.2 Bond Futures - **Basis**: The basis of TS, TF, T, and TL bonds is provided, including the latest values, changes compared to the previous day, and historical quantiles [2] - **Cross - Period Spreads**: Cross - period spreads between different contract quarters, such as the current quarter and the next quarter, the current quarter and the far quarter, etc., are shown, with corresponding historical quantiles and changes [2] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Spreads between different bond varieties, such as TS - TF, TS - T, etc., are presented, along with their historical quantiles and changes [2] 3.3 Precious Metals - **Domestic Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices, price changes, and price change ratios of domestic precious metal futures contracts (AU2602, AG2602, etc.) are given [3] - **External Futures Closing Prices**: The closing prices, price changes, and price change ratios of external precious metal futures contracts (COMEX gold, COMEX silver, etc.) are provided [3] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices, price changes, and price change ratios of precious metals (London gold, London silver, etc.) are presented [3] - **Other Data**: Data such as ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions are also included, along with their changes [3] 3.4 Container Shipping Industry - **Container Shipping Index**: The settlement price indices of SCFIS (European and US - bound routes) and the Shanghai export container freight rate indices (SCFI) are presented, along with their price changes and price change ratios [5] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The prices, price changes, and price change ratios of different container shipping futures contracts (EC2602, EC2604, etc.), as well as the basis of the main contract, are given [5] - **Fundamental Data**: Data on shipping capacity supply, port conditions (port on - time rate, port calls), monthly export amount, and overseas economic indicators (PMI, consumer confidence index, etc.) are provided, along with their changes [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The TC of domestic zinc mines continues to decline, and although the zinc ore import window is open due to the convergence of internal and external price ratios after overseas zinc ingot centralized warehousing, the purchasing demand of smelters remains strong, and TC is expected to decline slightly. The current zinc price is undervalued with positive domestic and overseas expectations [1][2] - The production of domestic zinc mines has entered the winter production - reduction cycle, with the output in November 2025 being 311,400 metal tons, 12,000 tons less than expected. The import volume of zinc ore in November 2025 was 519,019 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8%, and the cumulative import from January to November was 4,867,942 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.7%. As of the end of December, the total inventory of the seven major ports in China was 329,000 tons [2] - In December 2025, China's zinc ingot production was 552,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6.85%. It is expected that the production in January will be 569,000 tons, but the actual output may be lower than expected due to the continuous decline of TC. The zinc ingot export window closed in mid - December, but it is still expected to be in a net export state in December. The comprehensive smelting of zinc ingots still faces a loss of about 1,000 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingots has shown a downward trend [3] - The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting, and zinc oxide have all increased slightly. In November 2025, the net export volume of galvanized strip was 1,188,531 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.60%, and the cumulative net export from January to November was 12,932,351 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.88% [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Zinc Concentrate - In December, the domestic zinc concentrate TC dropped 550 yuan/ton to 1,500 yuan/ton, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee index decreased from $61.25/ton to $43.75/ton. The price negotiation for January is still ongoing, and it is expected to decline slightly [2] - In November 2025, the domestic zinc concentrate output was 311,400 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,400 metal tons and a year - on - year increase of 5.24%, 12,000 tons less than expected. It is expected that the output in December will be 320,000 metal tons. The import volume of zinc ore in November 2025 was 519,019 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8%, and the cumulative import from January to November was 4,867,942 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.7% [2] - As of the end of December, the total inventory of the seven major ports in China was 329,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27,000 tons. The raw material inventory of smelters was 388,000 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,000 tons, and the available days increased by 1.5 days to 22.3 days, but the available days of inventory are still low [2] Refined Zinc - According to SMM data, in December 2025, China's zinc ingot production was 552,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.85%. It is expected that the production in January will be 569,000 tons, but the actual output may be lower than expected [3] - Due to the opening of the export window, in November 2025, China's net export of zinc ingots was 24,500 tons, and the cumulative net import from January to November was 228,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43%. The zinc ingot export window closed in mid - December, and it is still expected to be in a net export state in December [3] - In terms of smelting profit, both domestic and imported TC have dropped significantly. Although the zinc price is oscillating strongly, the net smelting loss is still - 2,300 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive smelting still faces a loss of about 1,000 yuan/ton [3] - The latest inventory of zinc ingots in seven places is 106,000 tons, with a destocking of 38,000 tons in December. The consumption in the off - season at the end of the year shows resilience. Even after the export window is closed, the inventory still shows a downward trend. The warrant inventory is 42,419 tons, the bonded area inventory is 3,300 tons, and the latest LME inventory is 107,625 tons, with a cumulative inventory increase of more than 50,000 tons in December [3] Consumption End - The operating rate of galvanizing is 57.0%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the operating rate of die - casting is 30.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%; the operating rate of zinc oxide is 42.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3% [4] - In November 2025, the net export volume of galvanized strip was 1,188,531 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.53% and a year - on - year increase of 13.60%. The cumulative net export from January to November was 12,932,351 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.88% [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean and peanut markets is neutral [3][6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean market shows obvious regional and quality differentiation. The price of soybeans in Northeast China has been rising, but the rapid increase has suppressed the trading volume. In the inland regions, the price of high - protein soybeans remains strong, while the price of ordinary new soybeans has declined in some areas. Despite the overall oversupply, there is still a premium space for high - quality soybeans, and the market may continue the differentiated consolidation trend in the future [2] - The domestic peanut market still faces significant supply pressure. The price is mainly supported by planting and holding costs. It is expected that the demand for commercial peanuts will drive the general peanuts to show an upward trend around January 2026. The price of peanut oil is expected to decline under pressure, and peanut meal is priced according to the aflatoxin index due to inventory accumulation and weak terminal demand [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Market 3.1.1 Price Quotes - Futures: The closing price of the main soybean contract this month is 4,241 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 133 yuan, with a growth rate of 3.24% [1] - Spot: The spot basis of edible soybeans in Bayan, Baoqing, Fujin, and Shangzhi areas has changed compared with last month, showing different upward trends [1] 3.1.2 Supply and Demand - Supply: Mysteel estimates the soybean arrival volume from December 2025 to March 2026. There was a snow and rain weather process around January 1, 2026, which was beneficial to soil moisture in the north but increased the cost of cold - proof and heat - preservation for facility agriculture and animal husbandry. The remaining grain in the Northeast is limited, while in the inland regions, the transaction is still light. The estimated remaining grain ratios in Heilongjiang, Anhui, Henan, and Shandong are 48%, 53%, 58%, and 60% respectively [1] - Demand: The downstream enterprises have a low acceptance of high - price soybeans and generally adopt a cautious strategy of buying as needed. The inflow of Northeast soybeans into the southern market has also put pressure on the local market, resulting in a slow sales volume [1] 3.1.3 Basis Analysis - Basis Status: The basis of edible soybeans in Northeast regions such as Bayan, Baoqing, Fujin, and Shangzhi has changed compared with last month. The regional differentiation is obvious, with the basis in the Northeast higher than that in the inland regions [8] - Basis Analysis and Forecast: Limited remaining grain in the Northeast and price - raising purchases by the China Grain Reserves Corporation support the upward movement of the basis. It is predicted that the basis of high - quality soybeans will be supported by policy and structural supply shortage, but it will continue the differentiated consolidation trend under weak demand and policy - grain release [8] - Basis Strategy: Pay attention to the basis opportunities of high - quality soybeans in the Northeast, make layouts on pullbacks, and avoid chasing highs. Adjust the position - holding rhythm based on policy and remaining - grain data [8] 3.2 Peanut Market 3.2.1 Price Quotes - Futures: The closing price of the main peanut contract this month is 7,992 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 206 yuan, with a decline rate of 2.51% [4] - Spot: The spot basis of peanuts in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Linyi, and Hebei Hengshui areas has changed compared with last month, showing different upward or downward trends [4] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply: In the next 10 days, the average temperature in some areas will be higher or lower than the same period of the previous year. The domestic peanuts are in the centralized listing stage, but the farmers' reluctance to sell is widespread, and the warehouses in some producing areas are nearly full. The yield of commercial peanuts is lower than the same period last year, and low - quality peanuts flowing into the oil channel have increased the supply pressure [4] - Demand: Before the New Year's Day holiday, the raw - material procurement rhythm of food processing enterprises was gentle, and the downstream distributors were more cautious in stockpiling. The operating level of domestic oil mills has increased, while the family self - pressing demand has slightly decreased. Some oil mills have increased the import of crude oil, but the raw - material consumption speed is still average. Some factories have completed the phased oil - material procurement plan, and their subsequent purchase intention has weakened. In December, the arrival volume of peanuts in most medium - and large - sized oil mills increased by 54.15% compared with November. As of the end of December 2025, the operating rate of domestic peanut - oil sample enterprises increased by 10.27% month - on - month and decreased by 1.92% year - on - year. The peanut inventory of peanut - oil sample enterprises increased by 73.40% compared with the end of last month [4] 3.2.3 Basis Analysis - Basis Status: The basis of peanuts in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Linyi, and Hebei Hengshui areas has changed compared with last month. The supply - structure differentiation has led to the spread, with the basis of high - quality commercial peanuts stronger than that of ordinary general peanuts [9] - Basis Analysis and Forecast: The basis fluctuates under the pressure of centralized listing and supply. The reluctance of farmers to sell and the increase in the arrival volume of oil mills support the upward movement of the basis in some areas. It is predicted that the basis will fluctuate upward driven by the demand for commercial peanuts before the Spring Festival, while the basis on the oil - material side will be under pressure [9] - Basis Strategy: Layout basis opportunities related to commercial peanuts, avoid the downward risk of the basis on the oil - material side, and adjust the strategy by tracking the operating and arrival data of oil mills [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices are likely to remain range-bound, supported by macro factors but constrained by the industry [2] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to experience a bullish oscillation due to the game between long and short funds [2] - Coke is expected to experience high-level oscillations as the fourth round of price cuts begins [2] - Coking coal is expected to experience high-level oscillations due to year-end production cuts [2] - Logs are expected to experience low-level oscillations [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 futures contract was 789.0 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan/ton or 0.94% from the previous day. The open interest decreased by 16,080 lots to 613,601 lots. The prices of imported and domestic iron ore increased slightly, and the basis widened [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to November, the total operating income of state-owned enterprises was 75.62576 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%; the total profit was 3.71945 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%; and the taxes payable were 5.2803 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [5] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the RB2605 and HC2605 futures contracts were 3,134 yuan/ton and 3,282 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.10%) and 11 yuan/ton (-0.33%) respectively. The open interest of RB2605 increased by 30,014 lots, and that of HC2605 increased by 7,022 lots. Spot prices remained stable, and the basis and spreads changed slightly [7] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 25, the weekly data from Steelhome showed that rebar production increased by 2.71 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 1.63 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 36.79 tons. In mid-December 2025, the average daily output of key steel enterprises decreased, and the steel inventory increased. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products. In mid-November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities decreased. In October 2025, China's steel imports decreased [9] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of rebar and hot-rolled coil are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Ferrosilicon2603 and Ferrosilicon2605 futures contracts were 5,750 yuan/ton and 5,706 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan/ton. The closing prices of the Silicomanganese2603 and Silicomanganese2605 futures contracts were 5,942 yuan/ton and 5,948 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton and 60 yuan/ton respectively. Spot prices increased, and the basis and spreads changed [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 30, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions increased. The export tariffs of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will remain unchanged in 2026. In December, the average operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises decreased, and the production decreased year-on-year. The production in Ningxia and Shaanxi increased compared with November [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the JM2605 and J2605 futures contracts were 1,119.5 yuan/ton and 1,715 yuan/ton, up 31.5 yuan/ton (2.9%) and 34.5 yuan/ton (2.1%) respectively. Spot prices remained stable, and the basis and spreads changed [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 30, the CCI metallurgical coal index and the Mysteel metallurgical coke (dry quenching) domestic spot price index remained unchanged [15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [18] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the 2603, 2605, and 2607 futures contracts were 776, 787.5, and 796.5 respectively, with small fluctuations in prices and trading volumes. Spot prices remained stable [19] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 29, the State Council Tariff Commission issued the "2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan", which will be implemented from January 1, 2026 [21] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [21]

Report Overview - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: December 31, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Pay attention to the spot-futures convergence of the 2601 contract, and regard it as a rebound for now. Rapeseed oil has the largest increase in the near - term due to continuous destocking, concentrated cargo rights, and strong basis quotes. The estimated decline in domestic soybean crushing volume in Q1 will lead to a stronger basis for soybean oil, and the futures price has strong support at 7,800 - 8,000. For palm oil, the production decline in December has been confirmed, and the export volume from December 1 to 25 in Malaysia increased by 1.6% - 3.0% month - on - month. However, due to high inventory levels, the upward trend of palm oil is hard to sustain, and attention should be paid to the resistance level around 9,000 [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - P2605: Opened at 8,504, closed at 8,658, up 1.22% with a trading volume of 358,771 and an open interest of 388,850, a decrease of 119 [7] - P2601: Opened at 8,520, closed at 8,646, up 1.34% with a trading volume of 7,236 and an open interest of 6,178, a decrease of 4,169 [7] - Y2605: Opened at 7,802, closed at 7,878, up 0.51% with a trading volume of 209,400 and an open interest of 619,542, a decrease of 16,826 [7] - Y2601: Opened at 8,046, closed at 8,150, up 1.07% with a trading volume of 6,782 and an open interest of 7,670, a decrease of 5,927 [7] - O1605: Opened at 9,036, closed at 9,086, up 0.34% with a trading volume of 195,918 and an open interest of 199,248, an increase of 7,865 [7] - Ol601: Opened at 9,662, closed at 9,714, up 2.50% with a trading volume of 3,475 and an open interest of 7,412, a decrease of 1,062 [7] - **Basis Price**: - East China Grade 3 rapeseed oil: 05 + 800 in January - East China Grade 1 soybean oil basis: Spot: Y05 + 510; February - March: Y2605 + 480; February - April: Y2605 + 430; February - May: Y2605 + 380; March - May: Y2605 + 350; (May - July) 05 + 240; June - September 09 + 300. Grade 3 soybean oil: 05 + 450, green soybean oil: 05 + 300 - Dongguan palm oil quotes: 18 - degree: 05 + 200 (Guangzhou warehouse), 18 - degree: 05 + 170 (Dongguan warehouse), 24 - degree: 05 + 70 (Dongguan and Guangzhou warehouses), 28 - degree: 05 + 50 (Dongguan warehouse) [7] 3.2 Industry News - **Argentina Weather**: A US meteorologist said that Argentina may face drought in January, especially during La Nina. Reduced rainfall from late January to February may cut soybean production, depending on temperature forecasts. So far, the weather in Argentina has been good, and crop growth is better than normal, but concerns may intensify in January [9] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) reported that from December 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.44% month - on - month, with a 11.66% decline in Peninsular Malaysia, 2.12% in Sabah, 0.75% in Sarawak, and 1.73% in East Malaysia [9] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports**: - ITS data showed that from December 1 - 25, exports were 1,058,112 tons, a 1.6% increase from November 1 - 25. Exports to China were 108,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the same period last month [9][10] - AmSpec data showed a 3.0% increase to 1,017,897 tons - SGS data showed a 41.0% increase to 824,276 tons [18] 3.3 Data Overview - **Domestic Imported Soybean Inventory**: As of the end of Week 52 in 2025, the total inventory was 6.847 million tons, a decrease of 0.875 million tons from the previous week. The coastal inventory was 5.818 million tons, a decrease of 0.887 million tons from the previous week [18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The overseas market remains tight with an expected increase in the January CP official price. Domestically, the price difference between domestic and foreign markets is relatively high, and the basis is relatively low, and the driving force needs to be awaited. The profits of PDH are deteriorating, and the maintenance situation in January needs to be observed [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Price and Basis - **Daily Price Changes**: On Tuesday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4372 (-8), in Shandong was 4300 (-20), and in South China was 4510 (+0). The price of ether post - carbon four was 4440 (+10). The lowest delivery location was Shandong. At night, the basis was 119 (+155), the 02 - 03 monthly spread was 136 (+12), and the 03 - 04 monthly spread was -167 (+19). As of 9 p.m., FEI was 527.39, a decrease of 4 US dollars. The January CP official price increased more than expected, with propane and butane at 525/520 US dollars per ton respectively [1] - **Weekly Situation**: The domestic civil LPG prices were differentiated. The cheapest delivery product was Shandong civil LPG (-110). The East China price was 4384 (-10), and the South China price was 4510 (+10). The overseas EI fluctuated, MB weakened, and CP strengthened. According to the first - round recommended values of January CP, propane and butane were 505/495 (+10/+10) respectively. The domestic and foreign prices strengthened slightly. PG - CP reached 100 (+1.86), PG - FEI reached 89 (+4.86), FEI - MB reached 185.6 (+10.6), and FEI - CP reached 11 [1] Premium and Freight - The East China propane arrival premium was 4 (+1). The AFEI, Middle East, and US propane OB premiums were 18.75 (+5.75), 50 (-1), and 43 (+0) respectively. The freight increased slightly. The FEL - MORI price difference was -14 (a month - on - month increase of 4) [1] Inventory and Utilization Rate - The arrival rate of ships was 54.83%, and the port inventory decreased by 14.3%. The refinery's commercial volume increased by 1.18%, and the refinery inventory increased by 0.41%. The PDH utilization rate was 76.36% (+1.36 pct) [1]

Report Overview - The report is a fuel oil morning report by the energy and chemical team of the research center, dated December 30, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report Core View - This week, the 380 cracking weakened, the monthly spread fluctuated at a low level, the basis fluctuated at a low level, the European high - sulfur cracking weakened, and the high - sulfur EW continued to strengthen. The 0.5% cracking in Singapore fluctuated at a low level, the monthly spread fluctuated at a historical low, and the 5GO repaired as diesel weakened. In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil increased in stock, the high - sulfur floating storage decreased in stock, the residual oil in Fujairah decreased in stock, the high - sulfur floating storage decreased significantly in stock, the European high - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly in stock, and the US high - sulfur floating storage increased slightly in stock. The low - sulfur floating storage in Singapore decreased in stock, and the European low - sulfur floating storage increased in stock. Global residual oil entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external cracking is subject to crude oil fluctuations, and there is no improvement at the spot end, so it is regarded as bearish. The low - sulfur valuation is low but there is no driving force [4][5] Summary by Related Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 23 to December 29, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed by 1.72, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed by 1.40, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed by - 0.31, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed by 2.33, Rotterdam VLSFO - G M1 changed by - 0.93, LGO - Brent M1 changed by - 1.03, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed by - 0.32 [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 23 to December 29, 2025, the price change of Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 was 0.11, other data for December 29 were not provided [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From December 23 to December 29, 2025, the FOB 380cst price changed by - 4.31, FOB VLSFO changed by - 4.51, and the 380 basis changed by 0.60 [3] Domestic FU Data - From December 23 to December 29, 2025, FU 01 changed by - 38, FU 05 changed by - 32, FU 09 changed by - 20, FU 01 - 05 changed by - 6, FU 05 - 09 changed by - 12, and FU 09 - 01 changed by 18 [3] Domestic LU Data - From December 23 to December 29, 2025, LU 01 changed by - 360, LU 05 changed by - 42, LU 09 changed by - 39, LU 01 - 05 changed by - 318, LU 05 - 09 changed by - 3, and LU 09 - 01 changed by 321 [4]