Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 57, indicating a "neutral" stance. Historical trends suggest that when the sentiment score is below or around 50, the market tends to find support, while scores above 90 may indicate resistance [5][9]. Hot Themes Tracking - **Robotics Theme**: NVIDIA is set to launch a new "brain" for robots, with a teaser posted on social media. Related stocks include Wolong Electric Drive (600580) and Changsheng Bearing (300718) [5]. - **GPU Theme**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to enhance the quality of computing power resources and promote the construction of green data centers. Key stocks include Loongson Technology (688047) and Jingjia Micro (300474) [5]. - **Rare Earth Theme**: Recent discussions in Shenzhen focused on integrating rare earth materials with low-altitude economy and robotics. Related stocks include Northern Rare Earth (600111) and Guangsheng Nonferrous Metals (600259) [5]. Capital Flow Analysis - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflow include: - Yanshan Technology (241,574.44 million) - Changchuan Technology (97,877.91 million) - Magpow (66,536.80 million) [10]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflow include: - Lingyi Technology (-296,399.02 million) - Tuo Wei Information (-231,921.54 million) - Ningde Times (-208,604.10 million) [11]. Financing and Margin Trading - The top ten stocks with the highest net buying in financing include: - Shenghong Technology (159,407.85 million) - Northern Rare Earth (140,896.69 million) - Ningde Times (65,729.57 million) [13]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net selling in margin trading include: - Zhongke Chuangda (888.65 million) - Pacific Securities (875.74 million) - Tianfeng Securities (749.94 million) [12]. Industry Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring market sentiment and capital flows to identify potential investment opportunities and risks within the sectors of robotics, GPU technology, and rare earth materials [5][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market presents a complex situation with various commodities showing different trends. Some commodities are expected to be volatile, while others have specific directional expectations based on supply - demand, policy, and seasonal factors. For example, some commodities are recommended for long - term investment opportunities, while others suggest short - term trading strategies or caution [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: Since the second half of the year, global crude oil inventories have decreased by 2%, refined oil inventories have increased by 2.9%, and overall petroleum inventories have slightly decreased by 0.2%. The expected supply - demand surplus in Q3 was not confirmed, and the short - term unilateral price is considered bullish due to strong seasonal demand and increased expectations of a September interest rate cut [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: As of the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and China's bonded marine fuel bunker demand decreased by 1% year - on - year. However, domestic refinery production of marine fuel was also low, with supply decreasing by 19% year - on - year. Inventories in Singapore and Fujairah decreased, and the fundamentals are relatively bullish [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The international market rebounded with the support of import demand. The domestic arrival volume continued to increase, and the short - term high chemical demand can be maintained. The spot market has released negative pressure, and the market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [23] - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: The output of coking coal mines decreased, and the spot auction transactions weakened. The total inventory increased, and the production - end inventory is likely to increase in the short term. The price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy and has high short - term volatility with limited downside space [17] - **Coking Coal**: The price is oscillating upward. Some coking plants in certain regions have expectations of production restrictions. The overall inventory has slightly increased, and the price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy with high short - term volatility and limited downside space [16] Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals oscillated. The market has priced in a September interest rate cut, but there are differences in the statements of Fed officials. International gold and silver are in an oscillatory trend, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, Shanghai copper adjusted with a negative line. The short - term price was pushed above 79,500 by factors such as the probability of a September interest rate cut by the Fed. The US included copper in the 2025 critical minerals list. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 80,000 [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. The downstream start - up rate has seasonally recovered, and the inventory is likely to remain low this year. The short - term trend is oscillatory, with resistance in the 20,800 - 21,000 yuan area [5] - **Zinc**: The expectation of a September interest rate cut by the US increased, and the macro sentiment improved. Fundamentally, supply increased while demand was weak. The SMM zinc social inventory increased to 138,500 tons. The medium - term trend is expected to face resistance on rebounds [8] - **Lead**: The refinery's production reduction and vehicle transportation restrictions in some regions led to a decrease in the SMM lead social inventory to 68,300 tons, supporting the price rebound. The consumption expectation in September is mixed, and the price is expected to be oscillatory [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded slightly, and the market trading was dull. The pure nickel inventory decreased to 41,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory remained at 934,000 tons. Technically, the price has a rebound intention, but the fundamentals are weak, and short - selling opportunities should be sought [9] - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai tin oscillated below 270,000. Overseas tin has low - inventory support, and the domestic supply - demand is weak. The short - term price has the potential to rise, and long - positions can be held based on the MA60 moving average [10] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillated. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of South32's Australian mines. The demand from molten iron remains high, and the weekly output of silicon - manganese increased. The price has limited downside space [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillated. The molten iron output decreased slightly but remained above 240. The supply increased significantly, and the price has limited downside space after a significant decline [19] Chemical Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price of carbonate lithium corrected, and the market trading volume decreased. The total market inventory decreased slightly to 142,000 tons. The medium - term production decreased by 5% week - on - week. The market is focused on the expectation after the shutdown of downstream plants, and a bullish but risk - controlled strategy is recommended [11] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures continued to oscillate. The price of N - type polysilicon increased to 49,000 yuan/ton. The market is expected to be range - bound, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures continued to oscillate. The expectation of polysilicon capacity governance policies has stabilized, and the impact on overall supply is limited. The market is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the polysilicon production schedule next month [13] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: Driven by real - estate policies, PVC is relatively strong. The supply is high, and the demand is insufficient. The social inventory has continued to increase since July. The export pressure has increased. The price is expected to be range - bound. Caustic soda is oscillating strongly, and the price increase is expected to be limited due to long - term supply pressure [29] - **Methanol**: The methanol market is oscillating at a low level. The supply in the inland has increased, and the port is expected to accumulate inventory rapidly. Attention should be paid to the macro - atmosphere and the possibility of restarting coastal MTO plants [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The price of pure benzene fluctuated narrowly at night. The port inventory decreased slightly, and the domestic demand is weak. The supply - demand is in a weak balance. The supply - demand is expected to improve in Q3 but may be under pressure in Q4 [26] - **Styrene**: The cost - end support has improved slightly, but there is no upward impetus. The supply is high, and the demand is stable with little change. The inventory accumulation expectation remains [27] - **Polypropylene & Polyethylene & Propylene**: The inventory pressure of propylene producers is not large, but the downstream demand has weakened. The domestic supply of polyethylene has increased, and the demand for PO film is entering the peak season, but the short - term downstream procurement intention is low. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly, and the short - term downstream new orders are not expected to improve significantly [28] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: Affected by biodiesel policies globally, the demand for soybean crushing may increase. The supply of soybeans in Q4 is relatively sufficient, but there may be a supply gap in Q1 next year. The weather in the US soybean - producing areas may affect new - season crops. The market is cautiously bullish on soybean meal in the medium - to - long - term [35] - **Vegetable Oils**: - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US soybean oil has strengthened. The Malaysian palm oil export is strong, and the production growth is limited. The market is expected to be in a long - term bullish trend, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [36] - **Rapeseed Oil & Rapeseed Meal**: The crushing rate of rapeseed is low due to low inventory. The supply of new - season rapeseed is affected by weather in Canada and Australia. The market is expected to be oscillatory in the short - term and may be supported by import uncertainty in the medium - term [37] - **Corn**: The China Grain Reserves Corporation continued to auction imported corn this week. The supply in Shandong is stable, and the inventory in ports and deep - processing enterprises is seasonally decreasing. The domestic corn market is expected to be weak at the bottom [39] - **Livestock & Poultry Products**: - **Pigs**: A 10,000 - ton central reserve of frozen pork was purchased this Monday. The supply of pigs is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and the price is expected to be weak in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the game between fundamentals and policies [40] - **Eggs**: The egg futures continued to increase positions significantly on Monday. The spot price may have a seasonal rebound in late August to September. The industry needs to accelerate capacity reduction, and the price cycle may turn around in the second half of this year. Buying futures contracts for the first half of next year on dips is recommended [41] - **Cotton**: The US cotton is oscillating. The weekly signing volume of US cotton decreased. The Brazilian cotton harvest progress is slow. The domestic cotton market is expected to be oscillatory, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [42] - **Sugar**: The US sugar is oscillating. The international supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar sales are fast, with light inventory pressure. The sugar price is expected to be oscillatory [43] - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating. The cold - storage inventory is low, and the price of early - maturing apples is high but of average quality. The market is focused on the new - season output estimate, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [44] - **Wood & Pulp**: - **Wood**: The futures price is oscillating. The foreign - market quotation has rebounded for two consecutive months, and the domestic supply is expected to remain low. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [45] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures rebounded yesterday. The port inventory has increased, and the domestic demand is average. A wait - and - see or range - trading strategy is recommended [46] Financial Commodities - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market rose unilaterally yesterday, and the futures contracts of stock indexes all closed up. Shanghai introduced real - estate policies. The external market closed down at night. The domestic market's external macro - liquidity is relatively stable. An allocation strategy of increasing technology - growth sectors and paying attention to consumption and cyclical sectors is recommended [47] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market focus has shifted to the equity and commodity markets. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious. The price of treasury bond futures is under pressure, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48] - **Shipping Index Futures**: The supply of the European - line container shipping index is expected to contract in early September and increase in late September. The freight rate is expected to decline slowly in an oscillatory manner. Attention should be paid to the low - valuation opportunity of the December contract [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore: The macro risk appetite has not significantly declined, and there is still support [2][5]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and prices are in wide - range oscillations [2][9][10]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Driven by sector sentiment, prices are in wide - range oscillations [2][13]. - Coke and coking coal: Prices are in wide - range oscillations [2][16]. - Logs: Prices are fluctuating repeatedly [2][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental data**: The futures price closed at 787.0 yuan/ton, up 17.0 yuan/ton or 2.21%. The I2601 contract had a position of 464,830 lots, an increase of 12,205 lots. Among spot prices, imported ore prices generally rose by 13 yuan/ton, while domestic ore prices in some areas decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads showed certain changes [6]. - **Macro and industry news**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market", involving six adjustments such as reducing purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [6]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of iron ore is 1 [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental data**: The RB2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,138 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.71%, with a trading volume of 1,200,313 lots and a position of 1,347,830 lots, a decrease of 63,773 lots. The HC2510 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,389 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton or 0.92%. Spot prices in various regions generally increased. The basis and spreads also changed [10]. - **Macro and industry news**: On August 21, steel output, inventory, and apparent demand data showed different trends. In mid - August 2025, the output and inventory of key steel enterprises changed. The manufacturing supply index in July decreased. The national general public budget revenue from January to July increased slightly [11][12]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of rebar is 0, and that of hot - rolled coil is 0 [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental data**: Futures prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese had varying increases. Spot prices of related products were provided. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads showed certain changes [13]. - **Macro and industry news**: On August 25, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. As of August 22, the manganese ore inventory in ports changed [14]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicomanganese is 0 [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental data**: The JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,215.5 yuan/ton, up 53.5 yuan/ton or 4.6%. The J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,736 yuan/ton, up 57.5 yuan/ton or 3.4%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some areas remained unchanged, while others changed. The basis and spreads also changed [16]. - **Macro and industry news**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market", involving six adjustments such as reducing purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [16]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 0 [17]. Logs - **Fundamental data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts of logs showed different trends. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained mostly unchanged. The basis and spreads also had certain changes [19]. - **Macro and industry news**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market", involving six adjustments such as reducing purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [21]. - **Trend strength**: The trend strength of logs is 1 [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the spot price declined slightly, and the futures price fluctuated weakly. The supply increased overall, the construction material demand continued to decline, and the plate demand remained flat. The five major steel products accelerated inventory accumulation, and the market sentiment cooled significantly. It is expected that there is still room for correction in the black market, and the differentiation between varieties may intensify. Hold short positions in rebar and pay attention to the correction space [6]. - For iron ore, the price fluctuated narrowly, and the futures price was weak. The supply increased month - on - month, and the demand remained basically the same. The supply - demand structure became looser month - on - month. In the short term, the market is waiting and seeing. The strength of the peak - season demand for finished products cannot be verified or falsified, but the resilience of iron ore demand may be repeatedly traded. Compared with finished products, the iron ore price may maintain the current oscillating and relatively strong trend. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The rebar price fluctuated and declined last week. The rebar 10 contract fell 69 points to close at 3119, and the spot price in East China dropped 30 yuan/ton week - on - week to 3290 yuan/ton [12]. 3.1.2 Supply - The blast furnace start - up rate decreased, but the output increased. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.75 tons, an increase of 0.09 tons week - on - week. Some steel mills in Tangshan plan to overhaul blast furnaces at the end of the month, but the impact time is short [14][18]. - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 56.67%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points week - on - week. The short - process supply decreased due to factors such as tight scrap resources and falling rebar prices [21]. - The total output of the five major steel products last week was 878.06 tons, an increase of 6.43 tons week - on - week. Rebar production decreased significantly, while plate production increased [25]. 3.1.3 Demand - From August 13th to 19th, the national cement delivery volume increased by 2.8% week - on - week, and the infrastructure cement direct supply volume increased by 0.6% week - on - week. Although the high - temperature weather still significantly affected the construction material demand, the bottom of the demand may have appeared [28]. - In terms of hot - rolled coils, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in July was 5.7%, and that of the equipment manufacturing industry was 8.4%. Domestic manufacturing orders increased month - on - month, but overseas demand may continue to decline due to anti - dumping duties imposed by Japan and South Korea [31]. 3.1.4 Profit - The blast furnace steel mill profitability rate was 64.94%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points week - on - week. The average cost of independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3336 yuan/ton, and the average profit was - 93 yuan/ton. It is expected that both blast furnace and electric arc furnace profits will continue to shrink [35]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 1441.04 tons, an increase of 25.07 tons week - on - week. The accumulation rate of rebar social inventory slowed down, and the factory inventory increased slightly [39]. - In terms of hot - rolled coils, the factory inventory decreased by 10,000 tons last week, and the social inventory increased by 50,000 tons. The overall inventory level is still relatively low [42]. 3.1.6 Basis - The rebar 10 basis was 151, an increase of 39 compared with last week. The hot - rolled coil basis was 19, an increase of 28 compared with last week. Due to the relatively strong spot price during the peak season, the basis is difficult to repair significantly [45]. 3.1.7 Inter - delivery Spread - The 10 - 1 spread was - 76, and the inversion narrowed by 5 compared with last week. As the 10 - contract approaches its end, the pressure on the near - month contract increases. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 spread for potential positive - spread opportunities [48]. 3.1.8 Inter - variety Spread - The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 242, a narrowing of 9 compared with last week. The spot spread was 110, a narrowing of 20 compared with last week. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the 01 spread narrowing when the production - restriction policy is fully implemented [51]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The iron ore price fluctuated narrowly last week. The 01 contract fell 6 points to close at 770, and the spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port dropped 5 yuan/ton to 767 yuan/ton. The market sentiment cooled, and the overall market was in a wait - and - see mode [56]. 3.2.2 Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume was 34.066 million tons, an increase of 3.6 million tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume from Australia decreased by 690,000 tons month - on - month, while that from Brazil increased by 710,000 tons month - on - month [59][62]. - The 47 - port iron ore arrival volume was 27.031 million tons, an increase of 1.32 million tons week - on - week [65]. 3.2.3 Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 2.4075 million tons/day, an increase of 900 tons/day week - on - week. The demand for iron ore remained at a high level, showing strong resilience [68]. - The average daily port trading volume was 1.016 million tons, an increase of 62,000 tons week - on - week. Steel mills replenished inventory as needed [71]. 3.2.4 Port Inventory - The total inventory of 47 - port iron ore was 144.442 million tons, an increase of 630,000 tons week - on - week [75]. 3.2.5 Downstream Inventory - The total inventory of imported sintered powder in 114 steel mills was 27.5193 million tons, a decrease of 240,100 tons compared with the previous period. The overall change was not significant [78]. 3.2.6 Shipping - The freight from Western Australia to China was 9.21 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.72 US dollars week - on - week. The freight from Brazil to China was 23.17 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.5 US dollars week - on - week [82]. 3.2.7 Spread - The 1 - 5 spread was 22.5, an increase of 2 compared with last week, and it is at a relatively low - neutral level. The 01 - contract discount was 20, basically the same as last week, and the basis level is relatively low [86].

Group 1 - The A-share market continues to show strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3883 points, just shy of the 3900-point mark [1] - Major stock index futures have also risen, with the CSI 300 index futures (IF) leading with a 2.29% increase, followed by the SSE 50 index futures (IH) at 2.14%, the CSI 500 index futures (IC) at 1.8%, and the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) at 1.27% [1] - The total open interest for IF reached 289,600 contracts, with a daily increase of 12,400 contracts, while IC had an open interest of 244,500 contracts, increasing by 10,900 contracts [1] Group 2 - Since July, the discount on stock index futures has gradually narrowed, with the IF contract's discount to the spot market reducing from over 56 points in early July to around 25 points in August, and it has shifted to a slight premium [2] - The narrowing of the discount typically indicates improving market expectations for future indices [4] - The current market is in an "accelerating sentiment" phase, characterized by strong capital inflow intentions and rapid rotation of hot sectors, with investors reacting more sensitively to positive policy and earnings surprises [4] Group 3 - Despite the market's significant rise, caution is advised regarding potential short-term overheating risks [4] - It is suggested that investors maintain existing positions while managing risks, focusing on high-growth sectors like technology and consumer goods, and being cautious of stocks with excessive short-term gains and valuations deviating from fundamentals [4] - In the medium to long term, if economic recovery trends are confirmed and corporate earnings improve, the market may shift from sentiment-driven to profit-driven dynamics, highlighting the value of quality asset allocation [4]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's recent survey indicates a growing urgency among residents to sell their properties, while the desire to purchase homes continues to decline [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Price Expectations - The survey reveals that 33% of respondents expect home prices to decline over the next 12 months, a slight decrease from 36% in April [5][7]. - In first-tier cities, the expectation of price declines is even higher, with 50% of respondents anticipating a drop [5][7]. - The divergence in opinions regarding future price movements suggests that the market has not yet reached its bottom, as consensus is lacking [3][4]. Group 2: Buyer and Seller Intentions - The willingness to purchase homes remains low, with only 51% of respondents considering buying in the future, and just 16% indicating they are "very likely" to buy [12][15]. - Among potential sellers, 44% plan to sell within the next six months, and 66% intend to sell within a year [16][17]. - A significant shift in sentiment is noted, with 56% of homeowners now willing to accept losses on their sales, up from 43% in April [19][21]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The current market dynamics show a decrease in demand and an increase in supply, leading to a bearish sentiment [27]. - Without substantial policy support, the downward pressure on home prices, particularly in first-tier cities, is expected to persist [10][27]. - The emotional aspect of the market, driven by expectations and sentiment, plays a crucial role in short-term price fluctuations [25][26].

Economic Growth Observation - The economic growth in China is expected to slow down, with Morgan Stanley predicting a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 4.5% for the third quarter [2] - Export growth is anticipated to decline from 7.2% in July to 5%-6% in August due to high base effects and a pullback in pre-emptive demand [2] - Domestic consumption remains weak, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors, despite the central government allocating around 600 billion yuan in subsidies [4] - The real estate market's ongoing decline is contributing to a "negative wealth effect," further dampening consumer confidence [5] - Infrastructure investment has seen a slight rebound, but its sustainability is questioned due to a decrease in net financing from government bonds [6][7] Market Sentiment - Despite the economic slowdown, market sentiment in the A-share market remains resilient, supported by ample liquidity and proactive policy measures [11] - The financial environment is characterized by a shift towards capital markets, with significant inflows into offshore Chinese stocks, estimated at 15-17 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025 [13] - There is a notable shift in residents' asset allocation from savings to capital markets, as indicated by a decrease in household deposits and an increase in non-bank financial institution deposits [15] Policy Response - The Chinese government is addressing core challenges, termed the "3Ds" (de-leveraging, insufficient demand, structural transformation), with targeted policy measures [18] - Recent government meetings have emphasized the continuity of cyclical policies and the acceleration of consumer support measures to bolster domestic demand [18] Central Bank Stance - The central bank's recent monetary policy report indicates a focus on the quality of liquidity management rather than simply injecting liquidity into the market [19] - The central bank has reduced the scale of net liquidity injections since June, reflecting a recognition of the current level of liquidity [19] Leverage Levels - Current leverage levels in the market are deemed reasonable, with the margin trading balance exceeding 2 trillion yuan (approximately 290 billion USD) but remaining below historical peaks [22] - The proportion of margin trading balance to free float market value is about 4.8%, slightly below the 10-year average of 4.9% [22] - There is a low risk of immediate policy intervention regarding market leverage, although vigilance is advised if leverage indicators rise significantly [26]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current positive trend of the stock market is mainly driven by loose domestic and foreign liquidity, and the marginal changes in domestic and foreign liquidity affect the short - term trend of the stock index to some extent. The market is bullish on the Fed's September rate cut, but the Fed's July meeting minutes show internal differences, adding uncertainty to the September monetary policy. The speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting and the upcoming PCE price data will influence the rate - cut expectation and decision. The stock index is expected to maintain an upward trend, but there may be an adjustment after a sharp rise [6][11]. - The stock index continued to rise this week, hitting a new high for the year. The main reasons are the better - than - expected semi - annual performance of A - share listed companies, especially the strong profitability of the manufacturing and technology sectors, and the drive from the sentiment and capital aspects [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Abstract - This week, the stock index continued to rise with increasing volume, and the four major stock indexes all hit new highs for the year. The turnover of the two markets rose to 2.5 trillion yuan. The main reasons for the sharp rise are the better - than - expected semi - annual performance of A - share listed companies and the drive from sentiment and capital [1]. - Before the release of non - farm payrolls data and PCE price data, Powell is expected to maintain a hawkish stance on inflation risks in his speech on Friday night, and the September rate - cut expectation will not change significantly. Next week, the stock index trend will be mainly affected by the capital and sentiment. There is no obvious negative factor currently, and if the previous performance disclosure situation continues, it can further support the stock index. However, some indicators show overheating, and the index may need adjustment after a sharp rise, but the upward trend remains unchanged [2]. 2. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - This week, the stock index continued to rise with increasing volume, and the four major stock indexes all hit new highs for the year. The turnover of the two markets rose to 2.5 trillion yuan. The reasons are the better - than - expected semi - annual performance of A - share listed companies and the drive from sentiment and capital [3]. - Next week's market trend needs to focus on the Fed's rate - cut expectation and market sentiment changes. The Fed's September rate - cut decision is uncertain. Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting and the upcoming PCE price data will affect the rate - cut expectation and decision [6]. - In terms of market sentiment, the overall volume of the spot and futures markets increased. The basis of index futures fluctuated during the week and rose significantly on Friday. The PCR of option positions showed different trends. The performance of the dividend index was weak, indicating an increase in market risk appetite. Some indicators show overheating, and a subsequent correction should be vigilant [7]. - It is recommended to continue holding long positions and appropriately increase positions at low levels in case of adjustment [11]. 3. Weekly Fun Chart - This week, the RMB exchange rate changed little, fluctuated slightly weakly, and appreciated slightly [12]. - The basis of index futures fluctuated during the week and rose significantly on Friday [14]. - This week, the stock index style switched from the strength of small - and medium - cap stock indexes to the strength of large - cap stock indexes [16].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a significant N-shaped upward trend since September 24 of last year, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high of 3800 points as of August 22, driven by fundamental expectations, liquidity conditions, and market sentiment [1][2][8]. Group 1: Logic Behind the Current Bull Market - The first driver is the fundamental expectation difference, where initial pessimism regarding the impact of the trade war on the economy and inflation shifted positively after negotiations began in May and anti-involution policies were implemented in July [2]. - The second driver is the liquidity easing, with both China and the U.S. in a monetary easing cycle, leading to increased demand for equity allocation amid a low-interest-rate environment and a weak dollar [4]. - The third driver is market sentiment, with a momentum effect following the market's upward breakthrough in July, leading to a significant increase in margin financing [6]. Group 2: Trend Judgment on A-share Market - The current A-share market is influenced by three key factors: a liquidity surplus, neutral corporate earnings, and valuation levels. M1 growth is still rising, and the weighted interest rates in China and the U.S. are slightly favorable for A-shares [7]. - Corporate earnings are expected to have limited recovery space, with nominal economic growth in the second half of the year likely to be similar to the past two years [7]. - Despite the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high, valuations are not considered expensive, with the price-to-earnings ratio at the 89th percentile and the price-to-book ratio at the 53rd percentile [7][8]. Group 3: Structural Trend Judgment on A-share Market - Since the announcement of anti-involution policies in July, market trading logic has shifted to coexistence of economic expectation recovery and abundant liquidity, leading to strong performance in small-cap and technology stocks, while dividend stocks like banks have underperformed [13][16]. - The current market trading logic has transitioned from a late economic slowdown phase to an economic expansion phase, characterized by strong performance in small-cap and technology stocks [16]. - In terms of structural allocation, dividend stocks can serve as a stable base, while technology and small-cap stocks can be considered for aggressive positioning, with relatively low-valued consumer stocks as auxiliary allocations to balance risk and return [17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.04% to 67.53 cents per pound, and CF601 decreased 0.5% to 14,055 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 10,082 lots to 478,500 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang remained flat at 15,080 yuan per ton, and the China Cotton Price Index Grade 3128B dropped 3 yuan to 15,240 yuan per ton. Internationally, the market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Symposium results, with the U.S. dollar index and U.S. cotton prices fluctuating. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton declined with reduced positions. The current tight commercial cotton inventory supports cotton prices, but the upcoming new - cotton harvest (a likely bumper crop) exerts upward pressure. The over - capacity of ginning mills and pre - sales of new cotton support the purchase expectations. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to remain firm and fluctuate in the short term [2]. - For sugar, in July 2025, China's imports of syrup and sugar premixes totaled 159,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons. Spot prices in Guangxi, Yunnan, and processing sugar mills were mostly down 10 yuan per ton. The raw sugar futures lack a clear direction, showing a range - bound trend. The domestic investment market sentiment is optimistic, with sugar spot trading improving and prices slightly rising. However, facing pressure near previous highs and the weak performance of raw sugar, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to continue with a range - bound pattern [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Research Views - **Cotton**: The international market is affected by macro factors, and the domestic market has a complex situation with inventory support and new - cotton supply pressure. The short - term outlook is a firm and fluctuating trend [2]. - **Sugar**: Import volume decreased, spot prices adjusted downward, and the futures market is range - bound due to lack of direction in raw sugar and pressure near previous highs [2]. Day - to - day Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 255 yuan, up 25 yuan; the main contract basis was 1,185 yuan, up 42 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,080 yuan (unchanged), and the national price was 15,240 yuan, down 3 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 9 - 1 spread was 62 yuan, up 2 yuan; the main contract basis was 314 yuan, down 25 yuan [3]. Market Information - **Cotton**: On August 20, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 141 to 7,455, with 249 valid forecasts. The arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data also changed [5]. - **Sugar**: On August 20, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou decreased by 10 yuan to 5,970 yuan and 5,990 yuan respectively. The sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 242 to 16,244, with 1 valid forecast [5][6]. Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: Charts show the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index of cotton over different time periods [9][11][12][13][14][15]. - **Sugar**: Charts display the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar over different years [17][18][20].