Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "818 Financial Live Streaming Week" aims to address investors' concerns about navigating the complex financial market, focusing on both identifying genuine opportunities and avoiding risks associated with non-standard financial activities [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event is organized by the Securities Times and supported by the Capital Market Investor Education "Spark Plan," featuring five specialized sessions and numerous experienced financial instructors from leading financial institutions [1][2]. - The live streaming will take place from August 18 to 22, with daily sessions at 15:00 on the Securities Times website, app, and video channels [1][8]. Group 2: Session Breakdown - **August 18 (Asset Allocation Session)**: Experts will discuss practical strategies for achieving stable returns amidst market volatility, focusing on "cash is king" and "cross-cycle allocation" [4]. - **August 19 (Stock Investment Session)**: The session will help novice investors build their investment framework by covering stock fundamentals, technical analysis, and market information collection [5]. - **August 20 (Fund Investment Session)**: This session will explain advanced techniques for fund investment, emphasizing the importance of systematic investment plans for ordinary investors [6]. - **August 21 (Futures Investment Session)**: Experts will analyze the practical applications of futures and options, providing insights into investment, hedging, and arbitrage strategies [7]. - **August 22 (Financial Literacy Session)**: The focus will be on financial education for both youth and general investors, exploring effective money management [8]. Group 3: Educational Initiative - The "Spark Plan" is a collaborative initiative involving multiple stakeholders, including stock exchanges and investor service centers, aimed at creating a comprehensive investor education platform [8]. - Since its launch on May 15, 2024, the initiative has attracted over 100 institutions and reached more than 50 million investors through quality content and innovative activities [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. Before a large number of upstream factories resume production, the disk trend follows coking coal futures, but the fundamental direction is bearish. It is recommended to short at high positions and take profits at low positions in the short - term, and not hold positions for a long time. The expected disk range next week is 8500 - 9100 yuan/ton. Upstream industrial silicon factories are recommended to conduct selling hedging [6][8]. - For polysilicon, with more event disturbances next week, the idea is mainly to go long on dips. The expected disk range next week is 50000 - 60000 yuan/ton. After digesting the negative impact of the second batch of registered brands this week, it is recommended to take profits on the inter - period positive spread of PS2511 and PS2512 opportunistically, and maintain the inter - period reverse spread idea. Polysilicon downstream wafer factories are recommended to conduct buying hedging [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon: The disk showed a volatile trend, and the spot price increased. It closed at 8805 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price of Xinjiang 99 silicon was reported at 8700 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 150), and that of Inner Mongolia 99 silicon was reported at 9000 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 100) [2]. - Polysilicon: The disk had a wide - range shock and was generally strong. It closed at 52740 yuan/ton on Friday. There was partial spot trading in the downstream, but the transaction price did not show obvious improvement [2]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory decreased slightly. The start - up in the southwest region continued to rise, and some factories in Xinjiang resumed production but at a slow pace. The inventory of futures warrants decreased compared with last week, with a warrant inventory increase of 0.1 million tons this week. The social inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.1 million tons [3]. - Demand side: The short - term downstream demand increased marginally. The polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supported consumption. The weekly production of polysilicon increased, and the weekly production of organic silicon also increased. The aluminum alloy had rigid demand orders, and the export market was inactive [4]. Polysilicon - Supply side: The short - term weekly output remained high. Some factories in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang resumed production, while some in Xinjiang reduced production. The polysilicon production schedule in August is expected to reach 130,000 tons, and the upstream inventory increased [4]. - Demand side: After a brief repair of wafer profits, the output increased. The short - term wafer inventory was relatively low, and some wafer factories increased production. The price increase of some wafers and battery cells was accepted, but there was no information on the price increase and transaction of components [5]. Market Data Charts - The report provides a series of charts, including the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and warehouse transaction prices of industrial silicon, domestic industrial silicon social inventory, factory inventory, monthly start - up rate, monthly output, profit calculation, export and import volume, trade - link inventory - to - sales ratio, prices of raw materials such as silica, petroleum coke, washed coking coal, charcoal, and electrodes, polysilicon spot price, production and year - on - year change, industry start - up rate, import and export volume, industry profit calculation, single - crystal wafer export volume, domestic photovoltaic monthly new installed capacity, new photovoltaic grid - connected capacity, domestic DMC average price trend, industry monthly start - up rate, production and monthly year - on - year change, factory inventory, export volume of primary - form polysiloxane, industry profit calculation, price seasonality of recycled aluminum ADC12, industry monthly start - up rate, average profit calculation, and domestic automobile monthly sales seasonality [9][11][12][15][18][22][23][24][27]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The price is expected to oscillate within a narrow range based on fundamental logic, but there is a need to be vigilant about risks from news. The long - term supply increase may affect the cost curve, while short - term relative valuation slightly boosts the upside space. The fire - method cash cost has decreased by about 2%, and deep drops are still difficult [4]. - Stainless Steel: The steel price will oscillate as there is a game between macro expectations and reality. Bulls focus on inventory reduction and supply - side adjustments, while bears are concerned about weak reality and supply elasticity. The 8 - month production shows marginal changes, and the inventory is still at a relatively high level [5]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of upstream factories. The short - term long - short logic is divergent, and the market is affected by various factors. It is advisable to short at high positions and take profit at low positions [30][34]. - Polysilicon: With more event disturbances next week, the strategy is to go long on dips. Policy and market factors dominate, and the market is waiting for the results of the Huadian Group's component procurement project [30][34][35]. - Lithium Carbonate: Due to weak supply and strong demand, the price is expected to strengthen. Supply is affected by production disruptions in Jiangxi and Qinghai, while demand improves in August. The price is likely to remain strong for about a month [63][64][65]. - Palm Oil: With strong supply and demand in the producing areas, the strategy is to go long on pullbacks [2][79]. - Soybean Oil: US soybeans have gained support, and attention should be paid to the procurement progress in the fourth quarter [2][79]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,600 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract was 13,010 yuan. The trading volume of both showed certain changes [14]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1963 tons to 41,286 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 570 tons to 211,662 tons. The nickel - iron inventory and stainless - steel social inventory also had corresponding changes [6][7][8]. - **Market News**: There were various news events such as potential export restrictions from Canada, project start - ups in Indonesia, and environmental issues in industrial parks [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon futures oscillated, and the，现货价格有所上涨；多晶硅期货宽幅震荡，现货成交未起色。工业硅周五收于8805元/吨，多晶硅周五盘面收于52740元/吨 [30]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's weekly industry inventory decreased slightly, with production increasing marginally. Polysilicon's short - term production remained high, and the upstream inventory increased. The demand for both showed certain trends [31][32][33]. - **Trading Strategies**: For industrial silicon, it is recommended to short at high positions and take profit at low positions. For polysilicon, the strategy is to go long on dips, and there are also suggestions for arbitrage and hedging [34][35][36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movements**: The futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate increased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 86,920 yuan/ton, up 10,280 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the spot price rose to 82,700 yuan/ton [63]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply was affected by production disruptions in Jiangxi and Qinghai, while demand improved in August with an increase in cathode material production. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the futures warehouse receipts increased [64]. - **Outlook**: The lithium price is expected to remain strong for about a month due to supply disturbances and improved demand [65]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Performance**: The palm oil 01 contract rose 5.11% last week, and the soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.74% [79]. - **Driving Factors**: The MPOB and USDA reports were unexpectedly bullish for palm oil, and the USDA report on soybeans provided support for soybean oil [79].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhejiang Jiahua Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. (嘉化能源), is actively engaging in shareholder meetings and stock repurchase activities, reflecting its financial strategies and governance changes. Company Announcements - The company will hold its second extraordinary general meeting on August 22, 2025, to discuss several key matters including the semi-annual profit distribution plan, amendments to the articles of association, and additional authorization for futures trading for the year 2025 [1][4] - As of June 30, 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 580.59 million yuan, and the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares, totaling around 263.79 million yuan [2] - The company has decided to abolish the supervisory board, transferring its responsibilities to the audit committee of the board of directors [2] Share Buyback Progress - As of August 14, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 27,906,500 shares, accounting for 2.06% of its total share capital, with a total expenditure of approximately 242.44 million yuan [3][4] - The maximum price for the repurchase was adjusted to 11.82 yuan per share, with the repurchase plan expected to be executed within 12 months following the approval at the annual general meeting [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, styrene, rubber, etc. It points out that most products have a bearish short - term outlook, with supply - demand imbalances and technical indicators suggesting downward trends. The market trends of some products are also affected by the movement of crude oil and other factors [1][2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: In September, the production increase is 547,000 barrels per day. The end of the peak season in the US leads to weak apparent demand, and the geopolitical situation has an impact. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening [1][2]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. There was a rebound with reduced positions today, and it's considered a small - scale repair after breaking through the support. The short - term pressure on the hourly level is at 490. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [2]. Styrene (EB) - Logic: In August, demand is still in the off - season and remains weak. The supply operation rate is maintained at a high level of around 77%, and new device production will increase supply pressure. Inventory pressure is relatively high year - on - year, and supply - demand is weak [5]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today, and the short - term downward path remains unchanged. The short - term pressure is at 7375. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [5]. Rubber - Logic: According to seasonal logic, prices should be stronger in the second half of the year, but this year, the supply side has difficulty increasing production. Although the rainy season in the production area has an impact, there is no extreme weather. Short - term improvement in downstream tire operation provides some support, but high tire inventory restricts further improvement. The medium - term fundamental driving force is downward [9]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. There was an upward movement in the afternoon today, testing the short - term pressure at 15950 but not breaking through. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 15950 [9]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The demand side of tires has a weak medium - term outlook. The supply side has not fully resumed production after maintenance, and production is relatively high under the pressure of new production capacity, so it is bearish in the medium - term. It is supported in the short - term by the low inventory of upstream butadiene [14]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It followed the upward movement of rubber in the afternoon today, but the trading volume was weaker. The short - term pressure at 11950 for the 10 - contract remains effective. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [14]. PX - Logic: The upstream PX devices are operating stably. The downstream terminal's operating rate has increased slightly during the off - peak to peak season transition, but the short - term contradiction is not significant, and it may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [19]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today's movement is considered a rebound after breaking through the support. The short - term pressure is at 6735. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [19]. PTA - Logic: The demand for polyester is weak. The supply - side operating rate is at a medium level year - on - year, and short - term inventory has shifted to accumulation. The contradiction is not obvious, and it may follow the direction of the cost - end crude oil [21]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in][21]. PP - Logic: During the demand off - season, the downstream operating rate is weak. With the launch of new production capacity and the restart of maintenance devices, inventory in all links of the industry chain continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are weak. It is also necessary to pay attention to the movement of crude oil [23]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today without changing the downward structure. The hourly - level pressure is at 7195, and the 15 - minute cycle pressure can be focused on at 7090 first. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [23]. Methanol - Logic: The supply - side operating rate has rebounded to 73% after two consecutive weeks of increase, reaching the highest level in history year - on - year. The arrival volume in July was low due to Iranian device shutdowns, but it is expected to increase significantly in August. Downstream demand is differentiated, and port inventory has reached the highest level in the same period in the past five years under high - supply pressure, so the fundamental driving force is weak [28]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term downward/oscillating structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Today, there was a large - volume long - negative line after increasing positions, and it accelerated downward after breaking through the support. The short - term pressure has moved down to 2360 (09 contract). The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [28]. PVC - Logic: Some supply - side devices have ended maintenance, and the operating rate has rebounded to a high level of 77.8% year - on - year. The demand is difficult to improve due to the downward trend in the real - estate market and the off - season. Inventory has continued to accumulate, and the fundamental driving force is bearish [30]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. After a large - volume long - negative line with increased positions today, it remains on a downward path. The short - term pressure is at 5070. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle and consider moving positions to the 01 contract [30]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The relatively low port inventory makes the short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol better than other energy and chemical products, but the inventory accumulation expectation also limits the upside space. It is necessary to pay attention to the start time of inventory accumulation [32]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today, waiting to confirm the downward acceleration after breaking through the support. The short - term pressure is at 4415. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [32]. Plastic - Logic: The increase in operating rate and the launch of new production capacity lead to large supply pressure. The downstream operating rate remains at a low level year - on - year, and inventory in ports and society continues to accumulate, so the supply - demand driving force is bearish [36]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillating structure. It oscillated today, and the hourly - level structure is not clear, while the 15 - minute level is in a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle and hold short positions on the 15 - minute cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 7320 [36]. Soda Ash - Logic: The supply side continued to increase production last week, with a month - on - month increase of 45,000 tons in output. The speculative demand in the glass market has weakened except for rigid demand. The inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased significantly again, and the heavy - soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The supply - demand pressure of soda ash is still large, and the anti - involution has no substantial impact on soda ash supply [37]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. It tested the short - term pressure today but failed and closed with a long upper shadow. The 09 and 01 contracts have different structures, with the 09 contract in a downward trend and the 01 contract in an upward trend. The short - term pressure of the 09 contract is at 1295. The strategy is to hold short positions on the 09 contract, with a stop - loss reference at 1310 [37][39]. Caustic Soda - Logic: The demand side has a high operating rate for alumina, and the operating rate of non - aluminum demand for viscose staple fiber has also increased and remains at a high level. However, the supply of caustic soda itself has increased rapidly, the profit of chlor - alkali has increased, and the operating rate of caustic soda has further increased. With a larger supply increment, the inventory continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are still weak [41]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level is in an oscillating structure. The 09 and 01 contracts still have different structures, with the 01 contract being stronger and the 09 contract being weaker. It oscillated on the disk today. The strategy is to start from the 15 - minute cycle of the 09 contract and try short positions after breaking through the 15 - minute support at 2510, with a stop - loss at today's high [41][43].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in futures trading, particularly in multi-crystalline silicon and coking coal, has led to significant profits for traders, indicating a recovery from previous downturns in these commodities [1][2][3]. Group 1: Futures Market Performance - In July, the futures market experienced a collective surge, with multi-crystalline silicon seeing a maximum increase of 70.79% and coking coal rising by 58.67% [2]. - The main contracts for multi-crystalline silicon, coking coal, and coking coal futures recorded increases of 51.45%, 28.31%, and 14.79% respectively [2]. - The total number of effective futures clients reached 2.61 million by the end of June 2025, marking a 12% year-on-year increase [2]. Group 2: Individual Trader Experiences - A trader, referred to as "玗," turned an initial investment of 22 million into 280 million within three weeks, achieving a maximum return rate of 724.25% before experiencing significant losses [8][9]. - Another trader, Chen Binghe, successfully traded rebar futures based on a combination of quantitative indicators, achieving notable profits in July [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Strategy - Traders like Wang Haolei have adopted a cautious approach, learning from past experiences to avoid over-leveraging during volatile market conditions [4][5]. - Both Wang and Chen expressed a wait-and-see attitude regarding future trends in black commodities, indicating a cautious market sentiment [7]. Group 4: Market Growth and Trends - As of July 2025, the total capital in the domestic futures market reached approximately 1.82 trillion, reflecting an 11.6% increase from the end of 2024 [12]. - The emergence of a short drama titled "Reborn in the Millennium, I Rely on Futures to Take Revenge" highlights the growing interest in the futures market and its cultural impact [13][14]. Group 5: Industry Insights - Financial professionals noted the challenges of creating engaging financial-themed media that balances accessibility with industry-specific knowledge [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the corn and corn starch markets remains weak, and it is recommended to mainly engage in short - side trading [9][13]. - For corn, the USDA's August supply - demand report is bearish, with increased U.S. corn production and ending stocks. In the domestic market, the continuous auction of imported corn, the upcoming listing of new - season corn, and weak market consumption have put pressure on the price [8][9]. - For corn starch, the resumption of operations by previously - overhauled enterprises has increased supply, while downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in an obvious oversupply situation [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Corn**: The main 2511 contract of corn futures closed lower this week at 2190 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous week. The USDA's report is bearish, and the domestic market is affected by factors such as corn auctions and new - season corn listing, with weak spot prices. It is recommended to mainly engage in short - side trading [9]. - **Corn Starch**: The main 2511 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed slightly lower after narrow - range fluctuations at 2522 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week. Supply pressure has increased due to the resumption of operations, and demand is weak. Inventory has increased, and it is recommended to mainly engage in short - side trading [14]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes**: The November contract of corn futures closed lower with a total position of 828,457 lots, an increase of 236,354 lots from last week. The November contract of corn starch futures closed lower after narrow - range fluctuations with a total position of 138,621 lots, an increase of 31,700 lots from last week [18]. - **Top 20 Net Position Changes**: The top 20 net position of corn futures this week was - 75,073, and the net short position increased compared to last week; the top 20 net position of starch futures was - 16,392, and the net short position also increased [25]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 132,529, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 7,450 [31]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of August 14, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,394.12 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active November contract and the spot average price was + 204 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,950 yuan/ton, remaining stable this week. The basis between the November contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 328 yuan/ton [36][40]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread Changes**: The 11 - 1 spread of corn was 3 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period; the 11 - 1 spread of starch was - 28 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [46]. - **Futures Spread Changes**: The spread between the November contracts of starch and corn was 332 yuan/ton. In the 33rd week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week [55]. - **Substitute Spread Changes**: As of August 14, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,438.11 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,394.12 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 43.99 yuan/ton. In the 33rd week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 138 yuan/ton, widening by 21 yuan/ton compared to last week [59]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Corn Supply - Side**: As of August 8, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 748,000 tons, a decrease of 144,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 3,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.774 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 131,000 tons; the shipping volume from the four northern ports was 247,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week. In June 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 160,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 760,000 tons or 82.61%. As of August 14, the average inventory days of feed enterprises across the country was 29.61 days, a decrease of 0.83 days from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.73%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.07% [50][68][72]. - **Corn Demand - Side**: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%; the breeding sow inventory was 40.43 million, an increase of 10,000 from the previous month, accounting for 103.7% of the normal reserve of 39 million. As of August 8, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 45.13 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was - 134.14 yuan per head. As of August 14, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 63 yuan/ton. As of August 15, 2025, the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 607 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 503 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 186 yuan/ton [76][80][84]. - **Corn Starch Supply - Side**: As of August 13, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 3.402 million tons, a decrease of 6.62%. From August 7 to August 13, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 576,000 tons, an increase of 15,500 tons from last week; the national corn starch production was 289,200 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 55.9%, an increase of 2.07% from last week. As of August 13, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.332 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.91%, a month - on - month increase of 1.60%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.33% [88][92]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis As of August 15, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2511 contract of corn was 10.35%, an increase of 0.67% from 9.68% last week. This week, the implied volatility fluctuated up and down, at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [95].

Report Summary - **Investment Rating**: Not provided [1] - **Core View**: The influence of the Indian tender on market sentiment is gradually fading. Returning to the domestic supply - demand situation, the supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 190,000 tons at a high level. Although the increase in enterprise inventory accumulation is not large due to increased port - collection, the upstream enterprise inventory is still around 860,000 tons. Domestically, agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season. If export demand is not supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1] Key Information by Category 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On August 14, compared with August 13, UR01 decreased by 21 yuan/ton (-1.20%) to 1726 yuan/ton, UR05 decreased by 17 yuan/ton (-0.95%) to 1771 yuan/ton, UR09 decreased by 11 yuan/ton (-0.64%) to 1715 yuan/ton, and the Shandong price decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.58%) to 1720 yuan/ton [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: The prices in most regions remained unchanged, except for the small - particle price in Hebei, which decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.57%) to 1740 yuan/ton [1] - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite and downstream products like compound fertilizer and melamine remained unchanged on August 14 compared with August 13 [1] 2. Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 7 yuan/ton to - 51 yuan/ton [1] - **Spread**: The 01 - 05 spread decreased by 4 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [1] 3. Trading Information - **Urea Futures Main Contract 2601**: On the previous trading day, the opening price was 1741 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1752 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1725 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1726 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1737 yuan/ton, and the position was 174,742 lots [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil production is seasonally increasing, and although export data can offset some of the production increase, inventory is expected to rise by the end of August. Dalian palm oil futures are under pressure to weaken and may seek support in the 9000 - 9200 yuan range. CBOT soybeans are near a technical resistance level and may correct, affecting CBOT soybean oil. Domestic soybean oil inventory may decrease after peaking, and basis quotes will have limited short - term fluctuations [1]. Meal - The USDA monthly supply - demand report and anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed have provided short - term support, but after the short - term positive information fades, the market may face profit - taking. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and spot prices are under pressure. The bottom range of meal has shifted up, and short - term profit - taking is possible. Overall, the trend remains upward [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - Pig prices are supported by farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices and some secondary fattening. However, the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Group farms'出栏 is expected to recover in August, and large pigs from small farmers also need to be sold. The far - month 01 contract has stronger support, but the impact of hedging funds should be noted [4][5]. Corn - The corn market has rebounded due to the impact of the anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed and the USDA August report, but its own fundamentals have not changed much. Supply will gradually ease, and the market sentiment is weak. Consumption is not significantly boosted, and the wheat price squeezes corn demand. The short - term rebound is limited, and there may be opportunities to short. In the long - term, the cost of new - season corn may decrease, and supply pressure may increase [8]. Sugar - ISMA's forecast of increased sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season has pressured the raw sugar price. Brazil's high - proportion sugar production has not led to a year - on - year increase in total sugar output. India and Thailand have full expectations of a good harvest. The raw sugar price is unlikely to break the previous low in the short - term, but the overall trend is bearish. Zheng sugar has rebounded but is under pressure from increased imports [12]. Cotton - The spot basis of cotton is temporarily firm, and the downstream industry has shown marginal improvement. However, downstream confidence is still insufficient, and the expected increase in new - season cotton production will bring long - term supply pressure. Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate within a range, and long - term prices may face pressure after the new cotton is on the market [13]. Eggs - Egg prices have reached a phased low, which may stimulate downstream procurement. However, high inventory levels and the impact of cold - stored eggs will suppress price increases. The overall trend of egg futures is bearish [16][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Palm Oil**: On August 14, the spot price in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9380 yuan, the futures price (P2601) dropped 1.38% to 9294 yuan, and the basis increased 295.45%. Inventory is expected to rise [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: In Jiangsu, the spot price was 8840 yuan, the futures price (Y2601) was 8592 yuan, and the basis increased 20.97%. Factory inventory may decrease after peaking [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: In Jiangsu, the spot price dropped 2.53% to 10000 yuan, the futures price (OI601) dropped 2.16% to 9852 yuan, and the basis decreased 22.51% [1]. Meal - **Soybean Meal**: In Jiangsu, the spot price remained unchanged at 3090 yuan, the futures price (M2601) dropped 0.19% to 3157 yuan, and the basis increased 8.22%. The Brazilian 10 - month shipping schedule's import profit increased 680% [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In Jiangsu, the spot price dropped 2.26% to 2600 yuan, the futures price (RM2601) dropped 3.05% to 2606 yuan, and the basis increased 78.57%. The Canadian 11 - month shipping schedule's import profit increased 36.92% [2]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 3960 yuan, the futures price of the main contract dropped 1.61% to 4041 yuan, and the basis increased 44.90% [2]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Spot Prices**: On August 15, the spot price in Shandong increased by 100 yuan to 13900 yuan, while prices in other regions had minor changes [4]. - **Other Indicators**: Sample point slaughter volume decreased 0.16%, and the weekly white - striped pork price decreased 0.25%. Piglet prices decreased 3.7%, and sow prices decreased 0.03% [5]. Corn - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2509 increased 0.09% to 2281 yuan, the basis increased 85.71%, and the 9 - 1 spread increased 20% [8]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2509 decreased 0.11% to 2648 yuan, the basis increased 5.08%, and the 9 - 1 spread increased 21.54% [8]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The futures price of sugar 2601 increased 0.04% to 5659 yuan, and the ICE raw sugar main contract dropped 1.49% to 16.58 cents [12]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning increased 0.17% to 5980 yuan, and the basis increased [12]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production increased 12.03% year - on - year, and sales increased 23.07%. Industrial inventory decreased 9.56% [12]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The futures price of cotton 2509 increased 0.33% to 13875 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread increased 6.67% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased 0.02% to 15060 yuan, and the basis decreased [13]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased 13.9%, and industrial inventory increased 1.8%. Cotton outbound shipping volume increased 22.6% [13]. Eggs - **Futures Market**: The egg 09 contract dropped 2.62% to 3191 yuan, and the 9 - 10 spread decreased 97.83% [16]. - **Spot Market**: The egg产区 price remained unchanged at 3.12 yuan per catty, and the basis increased 53.95% [16]. - **Industry Indicators**: The egg - feed ratio decreased 7.2%, and the breeding profit decreased 111.23% [16].

2025 年 08 月 15 日 豆粕：美豆冲高回落，连粕调整震荡 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 4041 | -46（-1.13%） | 4049 | -22 （-0.54%） | | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3157 | +12 （+0.38%） | 3140 | -24（-0.76%） | | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1031 | -11 （-1.06%） | | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 295.6 | -1.6（-0.54%） | n a | | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | | | 3080～3120， M2509+30/+60， 持平； | 较昨持平至+20； 9月M2509+0/+10/+40， | 8月25日前提货M2509-60， 持平； | 持平； 8-9月 10月 ...