1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Different commodities have diverse market performances, fundamentals, and trading strategies. For example, in the gold market, prices are expected to rise, while in the basic metal market, opportunities for stable buying are awaited. In the black industry and energy - chemical sectors, the market is complex and requires different strategies such as holding short positions, waiting and seeing, or taking short - term and medium - term actions according to specific situations. In the agricultural product market, prices generally show a trend of shock, and corresponding trading strategies are formulated based on supply - demand relationships [1][2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Market - **Market Performance**: On Thursday, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The price of London gold remained at $4,600 per ounce, and the price of London silver remained at $93 per ounce [1] - **Fundamentals**: In November, the total scale of US Treasury bonds held by countries and regions outside the US increased by $112.8 billion to $9.36 trillion. China's mainland holdings of US Treasury bonds decreased by $6.1 billion to $682.6 billion. Many Fed officials supported Powell, and the Trump administration decided not to impose comprehensive tariffs on key minerals such as silver and platinum. Domestic gold ETFs continued to have a small inflow of 0.8 tons [1] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on gold, and wait and see on silver [1] Basic Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: The copper price fluctuated weakly yesterday [2] - **Fundamentals**: The Trump administration did not impose tariffs on key minerals, the US dollar index strengthened, and the US Congress proposed a $2.5 - billion key mineral strategic reserve plan. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and the downstream point - price increased after the price decline [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a clearer opportunity to buy on stabilization [2] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract decreased by 0.89% to 24,375 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 295 yuan/ton. The LME price was $3,162 per ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The electrolytic aluminum price had a small correction. It is expected to maintain a shock pattern in the short term, and focus on the movement of the main funds [2] Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 0.39% to 2,789 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 119 yuan/ton [2] - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina plants remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The supply of alumina is gradually recovering, the inventory is continuously accumulating, and it is expected to continue the weak shock in the short term [3] Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On January 15, the main contracts of zinc and lead closed at 25,090 yuan/ton and 17,550 yuan/ton, up 615 yuan and 165 yuan respectively from the previous trading day. The domestic 0 - 3 month spreads were - 40 yuan/ton and - 100 yuan/ton, and the overseas 0 - 3 month spreads were - 14.32 dollars/ton and - 43.33 dollars/ton respectively [3] - **Fundamentals**: The zinc market was obviously driven by macro - sentiment and funds, but the fundamental support was insufficient. The lead market showed a weak reality, with weak consumption, increasing inventory, and expanding spot discounts [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards zinc, and operate in the range or be bearish on lead [3] Other Metals (Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Polysilicon, etc.) - **Market Performance and Fundamentals**: Each metal has its own characteristics. For example, the silicon market has supply reduction and demand - side anti - involution; the lithium carbonate market has price fluctuations affected by supply and demand; the polysilicon market has production reduction and inventory changes [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The silicon market can consider short - selling on rallies; the lithium carbonate market is expected to have price support; the polysilicon market is expected to have a weak shock in the low position [3] Tin - **Market Performance**: The tin price rose first and then fell yesterday [4] - **Fundamentals**: The Trump administration did not impose tariffs on key minerals, the US dollar index strengthened, and the US Congress proposed a key mineral strategic reserve plan. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and Indonesia's tin ingot exports needed time [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for an opportunity to buy on stabilization [4] Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3,161 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [5] - **Fundamentals**: The building material apparent demand increased by 150,000 tons to 1.9 million tons, and the output decreased by 10,000 tons to 1.9 million tons. The steel supply and demand were weak, and the structural differentiation was significant [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the rebar 2605 contract, with a reference range of 3,130 - 3,180 [5] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 815 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [5] - **Fundamentals**: The iron - making water output decreased by 15,000 tons to 2.28 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 2.8 million tons to 1.66 billion tons. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented. The iron ore maintained a forward discount structure, and the valuation was slightly high [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude, with a reference range of 805 - 835 [5] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1,180 yuan/ton, down 13.5 yuan/ton from the previous night's closing price [5] - **Fundamentals**: The iron - making water output decreased by 15,000 tons to 2.28 million tons, and the steel mill profit deteriorated. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented. The supply - side inventory was differentiated, and the overall inventory level was low. The futures valuation was high [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude, and aggressive investors can try to short the coking coal 2605 contract, with a reference range of 1,155 - 1,200 [5] Agricultural Product Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybean rose overnight, driven by the strengthening of US soybean oil [7] - **Fundamentals**: The supply was loose in the near term, and there was a large - supply expectation in South America in the long term. The US soybean crushing was strong, but the export was weak [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The US soybean was supported by the bullish expectation of US biodiesel, but it was still in the process of finding a bottom in the medium term. The domestic far - month contract was suppressed by the large - supply expectation in South America, and the near - month contract depended on the game between the reserve release volume and customs clearance [7] Corn - **Market Performance**: The corn futures price was strong, and the spot price rose [7] - **Fundamentals**: The grain sales progress was slower than the same period last year, and farmers were reluctant to sell. The downstream inventory increased, and the procurement enthusiasm would decline. The supply - demand contradiction was not large [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [7] Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose overnight, driven by the strengthening of US soybean oil [7] - **Fundamentals**: The supply was in a weak seasonal decline, and the export improved month - on - month. The overall pattern was loose in the near term and in a weak seasonal decline in the long term [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The oils and fats were strong, trading on the bullish expectation of US biodiesel. Pay attention to the production and biodiesel policy in the medium term [7] Cotton - **Market Performance**: The ICE US cotton futures price fell overnight, and the international crude oil price dropped significantly [7] - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton export sales increased significantly. India's cotton production was expected to increase. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures price began to fluctuate narrowly, and the medium - term upward trend was still valid [7] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude, with a price range reference of 14,600 - 15,000 yuan/ton [7] Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg futures price continued to rise, and the spot price rose [7] - **Fundamentals**: The laying - hen inventory decreased, but the capacity reduction slowed down. The Spring Festival stocking boosted demand, and the inventory decreased [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be strong in shock [7] Pigs - **Market Performance**: The pig futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price rose [7] - **Fundamentals**: The January slaughter volume was expected to be low first and then high, and the demand was stable in the short term. The supply pressure was not large in the short term, and the high - end - of - year demand supported the price [7] - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be strong in shock [7] Energy Chemical LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract fell slightly yesterday. The spot price in North China was 6,700 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis was stable. The overseas market price was stable, and the import window was closed [9] - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure slowed down, and the demand in the downstream agricultural film market weakened month - on - month, while the demand in other fields was stable [9] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market is expected to be in shock, with the upside space limited by the import window. In the medium term, it is recommended to go long on dips [9] PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract closed at 4,870, down 0.3% [9] - **Fundamentals**: The PVC was at the bottom and waiting for macro - guidance. The supply was at a high level, and the demand weakened seasonally. The social inventory was at a high level [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude due to the increasing supply and weakening demand [9] PTA - **Market Performance**: The PX CFR China price was $882 per ton, and the PTA East China spot price was 5,047 yuan/ton. The spot basis was - 65 yuan/ton [9] - **Fundamentals**: The PX supply was at a high level, and the PTA supply was also high. The polyester factory load decreased slightly, and the downstream entered the off - season [9] - **Trading Strategy**: The PX has strong expectations to support the price, and there may be a correction pressure in the short term. The PTA has a seasonal inventory increase in the off - season, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern will improve. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 - contract processing margin [9] Methanol - **Market Performance**: Due to the geopolitical situation in Venezuela and Iran, the methanol futures price rose first and then continued to adjust in shock. As of January 15, the methanol 05 contract closed at 2,273 yuan/ton [9] - **Fundamentals**: The export tax - refund cancellation of photovoltaic products had little impact on methanol. The domestic methanol production was at a high level, and the port inventory was expected to remain at a high level. The Iranian methanol loading volume in January was expected to be low [9] - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to rise in shock in the near future [9] Glass - **Market Performance**: The fg01 contract closed at 1,087, down 0.5% [10] - **Fundamentals**: The glass production reduction increased significantly. The supply decreased, and the inventory decreased from a high level. The downstream demand was in the off - season, and the price was at the bottom [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude due to the decreasing supply and weakening demand [10] PP - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract fell slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China was 6,450 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract basis was stable. The overseas market price was stable, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [10] - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure increased, and the downstream start - up rate increased month - on - month [10] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market is expected to be in shock, with the upside space limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand pattern will improve slightly, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [10] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The oil price dropped significantly yesterday. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran situation, the risk premium was difficult to fully withdraw, and it may remain in shock in the short term [10] - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure was large, and the demand was in the off - season. The OECD oil product inventory was higher than the five - year average [10] - **Trading Strategy**: It is not recommended to chase the high price. Wait for an opportunity to go short on rallies, or buy out - of - the - money put options on rallies [10] Styrene - **Market Performance**: The main EB contract fluctuated slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China was 7,160 yuan/ton, and the overseas market price was stable. The import window was closed [10] - **Fundamentals**: The pure - benzene inventory was at a normal - to - high level, and the short - term supply - demand of styrene weakened. The downstream start - up rate increased month - on - month [10] - **Trading Strategy**: In the short term, the market is expected to be in shock, with the upside space limited by the import window. In the medium - to - long term, it is recommended to go long on styrene or pure - benzene spreads on dips in the second quarter [10] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The sa05 contract closed at 1,194, down 2% [11] - **Fundamentals**: The soda - ash price was at the bottom, the expectation improved, and the inventory was at a high level. The supply was large, and the downstream demand was weak [11] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on glass and short on soda ash [11]

2026 年 1 月 16 日 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6785 | -0.51% | 629172 | 980 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 基差月差变化 | 05合约基差 | -135 | | -120 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -29 | | -35 | | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | | 前日价格（元/吨） | | | 重要现货价格 | 华 北 | 6650 | | 6700 | | | | 华 东 | 6800 | | 6850 | | | | 华 南 | 6850 | | 6900 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货开始回调，前期盘面反弹，市场补空和套保成交积极，现货短期流动性收紧，标品排产偏低水平 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2026年1月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货15650，基差-345 偏空 中性 现货价格 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净多，多减 偏多 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，逢低做多 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 3、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures oscillate and rise, closing with a positive line, accompanied by an increase in trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, with the short positions increasing more significantly. Overall, it was a volume - driven upward movement. In the short - term, the market may fluctuate repeatedly. Technically, the price closed above the long - term moving average, with strong support from the moving average. The short - term KDJ indicator rose and operated in the strong zone. The trend indicator declined, with the long - position strength increasing and the short - position strength decreasing, and the long - position dominance expanding. The Shanghai zinc ZN2603 is expected to move in a sideways consolidation pattern [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The spot price was 25,420, and the basis was +330, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - On January 15, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 25 tons to 106,700 tons compared to the previous day, while the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 548 tons to 33,810 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The previous day, the Shanghai zinc futures showed an oscillating upward trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending upward, a bullish sign [2]. - The main positions were net long, and the long positions increased, which is bullish [2]. 2. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on January 15 - For different delivery months (from 2601 to 2612), there were various price movements, including opening prices, high prices, low prices, closing prices, and settlement reference prices. The trading volume, turnover, and open interest also varied. For example, the 2603 contract had a trading volume of 502,358 lots and a turnover of 62,860,449,300 yuan [3]. 3. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on January 15 - The spot TC for zinc concentrate was 1,300 yuan/metal ton, and the comprehensive TC for imported zinc concentrate was 50 US dollars/dry ton, with no change. The prices of 0 zinc in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Tianjin all increased, with increases ranging from 780 to 850 yuan/ton [4]. 4. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics in Main National Markets (January 5, 2025 - January 15, 2026) - The total inventory on January 15 was 1.065 million tons, a decrease of 69,000 tons compared to January 8 and a decrease of 50,000 tons compared to January 12. Inventories in different regions such as Dongri, Guangdong, and Tianjin also changed to varying degrees [5]. 5. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on January 15 - The total zinc warrants on January 15 were 33,810 tons, an increase of 548 tons. Warrants in different regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Tianjin had different changes. For example, in Guangdong, the total warrants decreased by 175 tons, while in Tianjin, they increased by 723 tons [7]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on January 15 - The previous day's inventory was 106,725 tons, with 600 tons received and 625 tons delivered. The current inventory was 106,700 tons, a decrease of 25 tons. The registered warrants were 98,125 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 8,575 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 8.04% [8]. 7. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on January 15 - The prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions such as Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Kunming all increased by 630 yuan/ton [10]. 8. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on January 15 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry all increased by 840 yuan/ton [13]. 9. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on January 15 - The processing fees for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions ranged from 1,100 to 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee for imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 50 US dollars/ton [18]. 10. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on January 15 - In terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 151,423 lots, Dongzheng Futures (on behalf of clients) with 96,162 lots, and another unnamed futures company (on behalf of clients) with 58,719 lots. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had 20,278 lots, and in terms of short positions, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) had 17,894 lots [19].

2026 年 1 月 16 日 胶版印刷纸：空单择机止盈 石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 shiyining@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：基本面数据(元/吨) | 市场 | 区域 | 纸种 | 2026/1/15 | 2026/1/14 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 70g天阳 | 4475 | 4475 | 0 | | | 山东市场 | 70g晨鸣云镜 | 4675 | 4675 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | 现货市场 | | 70g本白牡丹 | 4450 | 4450 | 0 | | | | 70g天阳 | 4400 | 4400 | 0 | | | 广东市场 | 70g晨鸣云豹 | 4600 | 4600 | 0 | | | | 70g华夏太阳 | 4700 | 4700 | 0 | | | | 含税收入 | 4725 | 4725 | 0 | | | 税前 | 含税成本 | 5286 | 5292 | -6 | | | | 税前毛利 | -561 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tin industry is "strongly bullish", with a trend strength of 2, indicating the most bullish outlook [1][3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The tin market is experiencing a strong upward trend, as evidenced by significant price increases in both futures and spot markets [1][2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 413,170 with a daily increase of 8.92%, and the night - session closing price was 436,540 with a night - session increase of 9.18%. The LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 54,000 with a daily increase of 9.88% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 404,698, a decrease of 65,525 from the previous day, and the open interest was 42,405, a decrease of 448. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 1,536, a decrease of 14, and the open interest was 23,559, an increase of 271 [2] - **Inventory and Cancelled Warrant Ratio**: The Shanghai Tin inventory was 7,107, an increase of 862, and the LME Tin inventory was 5,930, unchanged. The cancelled warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot and Price Spreads**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price increased by 25,300 to 405,500, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price increased by 30,000 to 410,000. The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread increased by 22 to - 65 [2] - **Industry Chain Key Prices**: The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan increased by 25,300 to 393,500, and the price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi increased by 25,300 to 397,500 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - The US will suspend all visas for 75 countries, covering nearly one - third of the world - US retail sales in November increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations, driven by a rebound in car sales and holiday consumption - The Japanese yen fell to an 18 - month low, and the Japanese Finance Minister warned of "not excluding any means" to rescue the market - China's Foreign Ministry stated that US officials said the US was withdrawing personnel from major Middle - East bases [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints - LLDPE futures and spot market continue to resonate with low standard product production. The spot market has tightened liquidity in the short - term, with improved trade - sample transactions. The outer - market quotation is rising, and the long - term import profit is open, but downstream factories are mostly cautious. The raw material end has mixed trends, and the supply side has some changes with potential future supply - demand pressure [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 is 6820, with a daily increase of 0.80%. The trading volume is 640471, and the open interest decreased by 10862. The 05 - contract basis is - 120 (compared to - 66 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread is - 35 (compared to - 36 the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: In the north, the price is 6700 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day); in the east, it is 6850 yuan/ton (up from 6750 yuan/ton the previous day); in the south, it is 6900 yuan/ton (up from 6850 yuan/ton the previous day) [1]. Spot News - The futures rally continues. The spot market has short - term liquidity tightening due to active short - covering and hedging transactions. PE spot prices are rising actively, and the east - China basis has strengthened and turned positive. Downstream product profits are compressed, but rigid demand orders are maintained, and trade - sample transactions have improved significantly. Outer - market quotations are rising, and long - term import profits are open, with increased importer transactions, while downstream factories are cautious [1]. Market Condition Analysis - The raw material crude oil price is stabilizing and fluctuating, the ethylene monomer segment is weakening, and the profit of PE ethylene and ethane processes has improved. The PE futures market has continued to rebound, with most transactions concentrated in the middle - stream, and downstream has not chased the price to replenish inventory. The near - end downstream agricultural film market is weakening, the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand, but the willingness of middle and lower - stream to hold inventory has weakened after the recent decline. The upstream is offering discounts to sell at the end of the year, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly, with a weak basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually starting up, the maintenance plan in January has decreased month - on - month, and some FD has switched back to standard products. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2]. Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is 0 [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides insights into various commodities in the black series, with different views on each commodity: - Iron ore: Valuation is high, so be cautious about chasing higher prices. [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Prices will fluctuate repeatedly. [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Prices will experience wide-range fluctuations. [2][10] - Coke and coking coal: Prices will fluctuate at high levels. [2][14] - Thermal coal: The supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and prices will undergo narrow adjustments in the short term. [2][18] - Logs: Prices will fluctuate repeatedly. [2][20] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 contract was 819.5 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan/ton or 0.36%. The open interest decreased by 1,527 lots to 653,307 lots. Spot prices of imported iron ore decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton across the board, while domestic iron ore prices remained stable. The basis and spreads showed slight changes. [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: In 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, maintaining growth for nine consecutive years since 2017. [4] - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a bearish outlook. [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the RB2605 contract was 3,162 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%, and the HC2605 contract was 3,306 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.09%. Spot prices of rebar remained stable in most regions, while hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai and Hangzhou increased by 10 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads showed various changes. [6] - **Macro and Industry News**: In December 2025, China imported 51.7 million tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 2.1 million tons or 4.2%, and the average price was 1,810.3 US dollars/ton, a month-on-month increase of 179.0 US dollars/ton or 11.0%. From January to December, the cumulative steel imports were 605.9 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 75.6 million tons or 11.1%. Weekly data on January 8 showed that the production of rebar increased by 2.82 million tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 1 million tons, and the total inventory of five major steel products increased by 21.77 million tons, while the apparent demand decreased. In late December 2025, the daily average production of key steel enterprises showed different trends, and the social inventory of five major steel products decreased. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs implemented export license management for some steel products. [7][8] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil, indicating a neutral outlook. [6][8] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the ferrosilicon 2603 and 2605 contracts were 5,690 yuan/ton and 5,668 yuan/ton respectively, with an increase of 8 yuan/ton; the closing prices of the silicomanganese 2603 and 2605 contracts were 5,920 yuan/ton and 5,938 yuan/ton respectively, with a change of +4 yuan/ton and -6 yuan/ton. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remained stable. The basis, spreads, and cross-variety spreads showed various changes. [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: Various regions released price information on ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, and multiple mining companies announced price increases for manganese ore in February 2026. Some steel companies increased their procurement volume and price of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon in January. [11][13] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, indicating a neutral outlook. [10][13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the JM2605 coking coal contract was 1,196.5 yuan/ton, up 5.5 yuan/ton or 0.5%, and the J2605 coke contract was 1,738.5 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton or 0.4%. Spot prices of coking coal showed mixed trends, with some increasing and some decreasing, while coke prices remained stable. The basis and spreads showed various changes. [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: The CCI metallurgical coal index showed price increases for low-sulfur coking coal in Shanxi. Due to heavy rainfall and floods in Australia, some coal mines issued force majeure notices, exacerbating the tight supply pattern of Australian coal and accelerating the price increase. [14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral outlook. [14][16] Thermal Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Overseas prices of thermal coal decreased, with the Indonesian FOB Q3800 at 49.0 US dollars/ton and the Australian FOB Q5500 at 74.2 US dollars/ton. The January long-term agreement price of port Q5500 thermal coal was 684.0 yuan/ton, down 10.0 yuan/ton. [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: In December 2025, China imported 58.597 million tons of coal and lignite, a year-on-year increase of 11.94% and a month-on-month increase of 33.01%. In December 2025, the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed and the month-on-month increase expanded; the year-on-year increase of CPI expanded and the month-on-month increase turned positive. There were rumors about the withdrawal arrangement of coal production capacity for power generation security. [19] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of log futures contracts showed slight increases, with daily and weekly price changes ranging from 0% to 0.6%. Trading volume and open interest showed different trends. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable, with some showing small fluctuations. [21] - **Macro and Industry News**: China's December RatingDog composite PMI was 51.3, indicating further growth in the total production and operation volume of Chinese enterprises at the end of 2025. [23] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook. [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: On Wednesday, gold continued to fluctuate. London gold closed above $4,600 per ounce. Some Fed officials expressed views on inflation and interest rates. US gold ETFs had a small inflow, while COMEX and SHFE gold inventories changed. It's suggested to go long on gold as its price is rising steadily [1] - **Silver**: The silver price fluctuated greatly. Speculative sentiment was strong, and the import window was open. Some silver from Hong Kong flowed in. It's recommended to wait and see [1] Base Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated at a high level. US economic data was better than expected, but the market risk was accumulating. It's advisable to wait and see [2] - **Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum price rose 0.90% to 24,595 yuan per ton. Supply increased slightly, and demand improved marginally. It's expected to maintain a high - level fluctuation in the short term [2] - **Alumina**: The alumina price rose 0.72% to 2,800 yuan per ton. Supply was stable, and demand from electrolytic aluminum plants was strong. It's expected to continue a weak - level fluctuation in the short term [2][3] - **Zinc and Lead**: Zinc and lead prices rose on January 14. Zinc's macro - driven rise lacked fundamental support, while lead faced weak consumption and inventory accumulation. It's suggested to wait and see on zinc and operate in a range or be bearish on lead [3] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rose 1.39%. Supply decreased slightly, and demand was weak. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,400 - 9,200 yuan per ton, and it's advisable to go short lightly at high prices [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price fell 3.0%. Supply increased slightly, and demand decreased. It's expected that the price has support below, but there is a risk of a pull - back due to long - position closing [3] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The polycrystalline silicon price fell 0.12%. Supply decreased, and demand was mixed. The price is expected to have a weak - level fluctuation at a low position [3][4] - **Tin**: The tin price reached a new high. Market risk was accumulating, and the supply was affected by disturbances. It's advisable to wait and see [4] Black Industry - **Rebar**: The rebar price rose slightly. Supply and demand were weak, with significant structural differentiation. It's recommended to hold short positions on rebar 2605 contracts [5] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price fell slightly. Supply was in line with seasonal patterns, and demand might decline. It's advisable to wait and see [5] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price fell. Supply and demand were weak, and the futures valuation was high. It's advisable to wait and see, and aggressive investors can try to short the coking coal 2605 contract [5] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rebounded slightly. Supply was loose in the near - term and expected to be large in the long - term. Demand was mixed. US soybeans were weak, and the domestic market was affected by South American supply expectations [6] - **Corn**: The corn futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price rose slightly. Supply and demand were balanced, and the price is expected to fluctuate [6] - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian palm oil price fell. Supply was in a weak seasonal reduction, and demand improved. It's expected to fluctuate, with different performance among varieties [6] - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract price fell slightly. International sugar was under pressure from Indian production, and the domestic market faced sales pressure. It's recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [6] - **Cotton**: ICE cotton fluctuated narrowly. International textile imports decreased, and domestic demand increased. It's advisable to buy at low prices [6] - **Eggs**: The egg futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price rose. Supply was sufficient, and demand improved. The price is expected to fluctuate [6][7] - **Hogs**: The hog futures and spot prices rose. Supply pressure was small in the short - term, and demand would increase at the end of the month. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [7] - **Apples**: The apple price rose 1.59%. Supply was low, but sales were slow. It's advisable to wait and see [7] Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE price rebounded slightly. Supply pressure eased, and demand was weak. It's expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term and advisable to go long at low prices in the medium - term [8] - **PVC**: The PVC price fell 0.2%. Supply was high, and demand was weak in the off - season. It's advisable to wait and see [8] - **PTA**: PX and PTA supply were high, and demand was weak in the off - season. PX is expected to have a short - term correction and a long - term upward trend, and it's advisable to look for opportunities to go long on PTA processing margins [9] - **Methanol**: The methanol price fluctuated. Supply was high, and inventory was at a high level. It's expected to rise in the near - term due to supply reduction and inventory decline [9] - **Glass**: The glass price fell 2%. Supply decreased, and demand was weak. It's recommended to go long on glass and short on soda ash [9] - **PP**: The PP price rebounded slightly. Supply increased, and demand improved. It's expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term and have a range - bound movement with a bearish strategy in the long - term [9][10] - **MEG**: The MEG price had a certain situation. Supply was high, and demand was weak. It's advisable to go short at high prices [10] - **Crude Oil**: The oil price fluctuated greatly. Supply was abundant, and demand was in the off - season. It's not advisable to chase high prices, and it's recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities or buy out - of - the - money put options [10] - **Styrene**: The styrene price fluctuated slightly. Supply and demand were weak in the short - term. It's expected to fluctuate in the short - term and advisable to go long on styrene or its profit in the long - term [10] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price fell 0.1%. Supply was high, and demand was weak. It's advisable to wait and see [10]

Core Viewpoint - Styrene futures have shown a strong upward trend, with the main contract reaching a peak of 7157.00 yuan and currently trading at 7124.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.19% increase [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Changjiang Futures adopts a cautious and bearish outlook on styrene, citing high valuations and a replenished overseas gap, alongside high inventory levels and difficulties in receiving near-month contracts due to the upcoming Spring Festival [2] -招商期货 expects the styrene market to experience fluctuations in the short term, with supply-demand pressures and low valuations, while also noting that the export volume has increased significantly [3] -瑞达期货 predicts a strong fluctuation for EB2602 in the short term, supported by stable inventory levels and a slight increase in production capacity utilization, despite mixed changes in downstream operating rates [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Changjiang Futures emphasizes the need to monitor cost and supply-demand dynamics for potential improvements in the medium to long term, particularly focusing on crude oil and pure benzene prices [2] -招商期货 highlights that the supply-demand pressure for pure benzene is greater than that for styrene, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips for styrene or pure benzene in the second quarter [3] -瑞达期货 notes that the current supply-demand balance is tight, providing some price support, while also indicating that geopolitical tensions may affect crude oil supply, which could influence market dynamics [3]