Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may take additional measures to address pressures in the funding markets, even after potentially ending its balance sheet reduction this week [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Multiple Wall Street banks, including JPMorgan, expect the Fed to stop reducing its $6.6 trillion portfolio of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) as early as this month [1] - JPMorgan strategists anticipate that the end of quantitative tightening (QT) will prevent further liquidity loss in the system, but funding pressures may persist [1] - The Fed is likely to implement temporary open market operations to alleviate common market tensions during key payment dates [1][2] Group 2: Market Conditions - Since the Fed began reducing its asset portfolio in June 2022, over $2 trillion has exited the financial system, leading to a significant drop in the reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) balance [2] - Various borrowing rates used in interbank lending have risen and remained high, indicating that bank reserves have not fully circulated within the financial system [2] - The Fed's benchmark rate has increased four times since the last meeting in September, reflecting tighter liquidity conditions [2] Group 3: Future Expectations - Once the Fed halts the reduction of its Treasury holdings, it is expected to reinvest funds into newly issued Treasuries to rebuild bank reserves, with regular T-bill purchases anticipated to start in early 2026 [2] - JPMorgan strategists suggest that the Fed should consider lowering the rate on the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) by 5 basis points to encourage more active use of the facility [3] - Market observers believe that the Fed's work will not be complete after ending asset reduction, as it may need to expand its asset size again to maintain balance in the reserves market [4]

Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on October 28, with a fixed rate and a total amount of 475.3 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] - On the same day, 159.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 315.8 billion yuan [1] Funding Conditions - The interbank market showed a generally balanced and stable funding condition, with overnight repurchase rates for deposit institutions slightly rising to around 1.47% due to the tax period [3] - The overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system remained stable at 1.46%, while non-bank institutions' overnight quotes for pledged certificates of deposit and credit bonds were around 1.5% [3] - The central bank's stance on month-end liquidity is evident, with no significant fluctuations in the funding conditions despite tax period disturbances [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 4.24% [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks was approximately 1.66%, down over 1 basis point from the previous day [7] Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed an increase: 30-year main contract rose by 0.55%, 10-year by 0.25%, 5-year by 0.15%, and 2-year by 0.08% [11] Economic and Trade Developments - The Chinese government released the "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development," emphasizing high-quality development and the enhancement of domestic demand as a key driver for economic growth [12] - China and ASEAN signed an upgraded version of the free trade agreement in Kuala Lumpur, expanding cooperation in emerging fields and promoting regional trade facilitation [12] - The deputy director of the Financial Regulatory Bureau indicated that insurance capital's average liability duration aligns well with the average R&D cycle of technology companies, with direct investments in tech firms reaching several hundred billion yuan [12] Global Macro Developments - The U.S. and Japan signed a mutual agreement to ensure the supply of critical minerals and rare earths, aiming to diversify and strengthen the market [14] - The U.S. Treasury emphasized the importance of sound monetary policy and communication in stabilizing inflation expectations and preventing excessive exchange rate fluctuations [14] Bond Market Events - The U.S. Treasury auctioned $70 billion in five-year government bonds with a winning yield of 3.730% [16] - Inner Mongolia plans to issue 7.8232 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds and 51.1399 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds on November 4 [16] - The issuance scale of technology innovation bonds in Tianjin's interbank market has surpassed 20 billion yuan [16]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market has crossed the 4000 mark, but there is still uncertainty about its future direction and stability [2][3] Market Performance - The stock market is expected to fluctuate around the 4000 level, with no strict control anticipated moving forward [3] - The market has shown signs of distrust, with some investors pulling back despite the recent milestone [2][3] Economic Context - The current economic situation remains challenging, particularly with consumer spending not meeting expectations, necessitating liquidity to stimulate activity [6] - The real estate market has seen a significant decline, with national housing prices dropping 36% over the past four years [5] Policy and Planning - Recent government proposals focus on addressing unreasonable restrictions in the housing market and promoting a new model for real estate development [4] - The upcoming five-year plan emphasizes economic construction as a priority, which will influence market narratives [8] Investor Sentiment - The market's core narrative is driven more by sentiment than by economic fundamentals, indicating a need for confidence to attract investment [8] - The expectation is that the market will stabilize around 4000, with potential for gradual increases, but volatility is a concern [7][8]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The necessity of a reserve requirement ratio cut is increasing due to liquidity pressure on banks' liability side in Q4, but the possibility of an interest rate cut requires further observation of economic data and tariff game impacts [3][4] - If a reserve requirement ratio cut occurs, it may drive down short - term and certificate of deposit rates; if an interest rate cut occurs, the magnitude is crucial, and the bond market may experience a small decline in interest rates, but the downward space is limited [48][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 History of Q4 Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts - In the past 5 years, except for 2021, policy rates were generally cut twice a year but not in Q4. In 2020, cuts were in H1; in 2024, in H2; in 2022, once each in H1 and H2, mostly by 10BP, with 20BP cuts in March 2020 and September 2024 [1][10] - In 2021, there was no interest rate cut, but the 1 - year LPR was cut by 5BP in Q4. In 2024, the policy rate was cut by 20BP in September and the LPR by 25BP in October [10] - From 2020 - 2022, reserve requirement ratio cuts were about twice a year, once each in H1 and H2, and there were cuts in Q4 of 2021 - 2022. In 2020, affected by the pandemic, comprehensive and targeted cuts were used in H1 [11] 3.2 Central Bank's Stance on Monetary Policy - After the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in early May this year, the policy focus shifted to the implementation of existing policies, with room for flexible adjustment based on the situation [2] - The "opportunistic" in "opportunistic reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" has three meanings: adverse changes in the economic fundamentals, weakened effects of expansionary fiscal policies, and a sharp decline in the capital market [2][17] - Currently, the necessity for monetary policy to support expansionary fiscal policies may be decreasing, and the focus of monetary policy may be on supporting economic growth, which depends on macro - economic conditions [2][18][19] 3.3 Possibility of Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts This Year 3.3.1 Necessity of a Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut - Banks' liability side faces liquidity pressure in Q4, increasing the necessity of a cut. The high maturity scale of medium - and long - term liquidity, the need to supplement liquidity regularly under the "structural liquidity shortage" framework, and the special situation this year (large - scale high - interest time deposit maturities and a narrowing M2 - M1 gap) all contribute [20][21][24] 3.3.2 Possibility and Boundaries of an Interest Rate Cut - Since 2024, the central bank launched "policy combos" under different domestic and international macro - environments. Currently, there are similarities and differences, leading to a divergence in market expectations for loose monetary policy [28] - Although Q4 economic data is expected to slow down compared to Q3, it doesn't directly mean a window for policy intensification. It is necessary to observe economic performance from November to December and the impact of the tariff game [39][40] - To support the real economy, a cut in structural monetary policy tools may come first. And a cut may not be the only way to promote a reasonable rise in prices and reduce the real economy's financing costs. Also, a cut may put pressure on banks' net interest margins [45][46] 3.4 Impact on the Bond Market - The probability of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts is increasing marginally, but it is not a high - probability event. Reserve requirement ratio cuts and cuts in structural monetary policy tools may come first [48] - If a reserve requirement ratio cut occurs, it may drive down short - term and certificate of deposit rates. If an interest rate cut occurs, the magnitude is crucial, and the bond market may experience a small decline in interest rates, but the downward space is limited by the current low - interest rate level and policy imagination space brought by the "14th Five - Year Plan" [49][50]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank has signaled a commitment to maintaining liquidity stability by increasing the medium-term lending facility (MLF) by 900 billion yuan, marking the eighth consecutive month of such actions in 2023 [1] Group 1: Central Bank Actions - On October 27, the central bank conducted a substantial increase in MLF, totaling 900 billion yuan, indicating ongoing efforts to support liquidity [1] - The central bank's actions are seen as a balance between "risk prevention" and "stabilizing expectations," suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] - The announcement to resume open market operations for government bonds on the same day led to a significant decline in bond yields [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The coordinated use of multiple monetary tools is expected to ensure a smooth transition across the month-end period, contributing to a generally stable liquidity environment [1] - The overall liquidity condition is anticipated to remain "stable with a slight easing" as a result of these measures [1]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on October 27, with a fixed rate and a total amount of 337.3 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] - On the same day, 189 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 148.3 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market experienced a significant tightening, with overnight repurchase rates for deposit institutions rising over 13 basis points to 1.45% [3] - The overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system exceeded 1.50%, indicating limited supply [3] - Despite the central bank's excess MLF rollover of 200 billion yuan and net reverse repo operations, the liquidity situation remains tight due to tax payments and month-end factors [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.68%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [6] Group 4: Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures showed increases: 30-year contracts rose by 0.32%, 10-year by 0.15%, 5-year by 0.12%, and 2-year by 0.05% [12] Group 5: Economic Data - From January to September, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 537.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [14] - In September alone, the profit of these enterprises grew by 21.6% year-on-year [14]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining a loose monetary policy by injecting liquidity through various tools, which is expected to alleviate funding pressures and stabilize market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - On October 27, the PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 337.3 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4% [1]. - The PBOC also executed a 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation of 900 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 348.3 billion yuan after accounting for maturing instruments [1]. - The total net liquidity injection for October reached 600 billion yuan, maintaining a high level of liquidity similar to September [1]. Group 2: Government Debt and Financing - The PBOC's long-term liquidity support is aligned with government bond issuance, which is expected to reach a net financing scale of 1 trillion yuan in October [2]. - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments is anticipated to stimulate approximately 5 trillion yuan in effective investment, creating a demand for 2 to 2.5 trillion yuan in accompanying loans [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Significant amounts of reverse repos and MLFs are set to mature in the fourth quarter and January, totaling 5.6 trillion yuan and 1.9 trillion yuan respectively [3]. - The PBOC may consider reducing reserve requirements or purchasing bonds to further release liquidity, ensuring that market liquidity remains stable and abundant until year-end [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Core Views - The profitability of steel futures has dropped to its lowest level since 2015, indicating significant pressure on the steel industry [2][44] - The report suggests that the profitability of the steel sector is expected to recover to historical average levels due to regulatory support for the industry [4] Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in September was -1.2 percentage points, with a month-on-month increase of 1.6 percentage points [12] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for September 2025 was 47.58, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.61% [19] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The price of asphalt has reached a new low since February 2022, indicating challenges in the infrastructure sector [23] - The national average capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 89.94%, down 0.39 percentage points from the previous week [44] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires is at a five-year high, suggesting strong demand in the tire sector [73] - The prices of major commodities showed mixed performance, with cold-rolled steel down 0.51% and copper up 1.94% [2] Sub-sectors - The main contract profit for steel futures has fallen to its lowest level since 2015, highlighting the need for strategic adjustments in the sector [2][44] - The price of graphite electrodes remains stable at 18,000 yuan/ton, with a comprehensive gross profit of 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down 4.26% [2] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in September 2025 was 47.80%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.6 percentage points [4] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 992.74 points, up 2.02% from the previous week [4] Valuation Levels - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the broader market is currently at 0.53, indicating potential undervaluation [4] - The report notes that the cyclical sector, particularly oil and petrochemicals, has shown the best performance with a 4.33% increase [4]

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Time: October 27, 2025 - Analyst: Liang Weichao - SAC Registration Number: S1340523070001 - Email: liangweichao@cnpsec.com [2] Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Fourth - quarter bond market may move in a volatile manner. The 30 - year minus 10 - year Treasury spread has fully reflected the repair of risk preference, and the 10 - year minus 1 - year Treasury spread has also generally reflected it. The bond market currently has allocation value, but chasing the rise requires caution [3][10]. - The capital market is in a loose state, with stable and low capital prices and little seasonal fluctuation. It is expected to remain loose during the October tax period and month - end [3][11]. - The issuance pressure of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) in the fourth quarter mainly comes from seasonality, and the probability of significantly exceeding expectations is low. NCDs have high allocation value at the end of the year and may decline more than expected [4][17]. Summary by Directory 1. How to View the Pricing of Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit? - **Bond Market Outlook**: Fourth - quarter bond market may move in a volatile manner. The spreads have reflected risk - preference repair, and the bond market has allocation value. Supply pressure may ease, and there may be opportunities for monetary easing, but redemption pressure will persist. Chasing the rise of bonds requires caution [3][10]. - **Capital Market Situation**: The capital market is in a loose state, with capital prices at a stable low and little seasonal fluctuation. This is due to the central bank's careful liquidity arrangements and the relatively loose and smooth - flowing bank liabilities. It is expected to remain loose during the October tax period and month - end [3][11]. - **Analysis of NCDs' Net Financing Decline**: Some investors are worried about the continuous negative net financing of NCDs since the third quarter. This decline is consistent with the state of the bank's broad liability gap and is also due to the substitution effect of the central bank's medium - and long - term liquidity injection [13]. - **NCDs' Supply Pressure in the Fourth Quarter**: The issuance pressure of NCDs in the fourth quarter mainly comes from seasonality, and the probability of significantly exceeding expectations is low. Although there is still some supply pressure at the end of the year, the probability of negative feedback is not high. The NCDs' interest rate is in a high - allocation - value range and may decline more than expected at the end of the year [4][17].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 168 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on October 24, with a fixed rate of 1.40% and a total bid amount of 168 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 32 billion yuan for the day after accounting for 164.8 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [1] - For the week of October 27-31, a total of 867.2 billion yuan in reverse repos will mature, along with 700 billion yuan in MLF maturing on Monday and 500 billion yuan in 182-day reverse repos maturing on Wednesday [1] - To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, the central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation on October 27, with a one-year term [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market remains balanced, with overnight repo rates for deposit institutions stable around 1.32%, while non-bank institutions are borrowing at rates between 1.43% and 1.45% [3] - Market optimism regarding funding stability is supported by the central bank's actions, despite potential short-term liquidity tightening due to tax periods and month-end factors [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. is reported at 4.21% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction rate for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is stable at 1.68% [6] Group 4: Bond Market Overview - The yields on major interbank government bonds show slight fluctuations, with the 1-year yield at 1.4700%, 5-year at 1.6050%, and 10-year at 1.7100% [8] - The 30-year main contract for government bonds closed down 0.25%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts fell by 0.06% and 0.05%, respectively [11] Group 5: Recent Debt Issuance - Shandong Province plans to issue 16.4274 billion yuan in government special bonds on October 30, while Jiangxi Province will issue 63.2003 billion yuan in local bonds on the same day [16] - Meituan plans to raise 9 to 10 billion yuan through the issuance of dim sum bonds [17]