1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US June non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, higher than market expectations, cooling the expectation of an interest rate cut this year. The US "Big and Beautiful" Act restricts the 45Z tax credit to North - American sourced raw materials, and the EPA's proposed policy boosts the use of vegetable oil in biodiesel, expanding US soybean oil demand. Brazil raised the biodiesel blending ratio from 14% to 15% in June 2025. Indonesia's B40 policy is partially completed, and it plans to implement the B50 plan in early 2026. In the fourth quarter, entering the seasonal off - peak, supply - demand is expected to tighten [3][42]. - India's palm oil imports in June reached 953,000 tons, a 61% month - on - month increase. China's cumulative palm oil imports from January to May were 730,000 tons, far below the five - year average of 1.17 million tons. With the arrival of ships from May - June, inventory increased, but there are fewer purchases after July. US soybean crop ratings are good, domestic soybean arrivals are increasing, soybean oil supply is sufficient, and rapeseed oil is at a high level and in a slow destocking phase [3][42]. - The US June non - farm data exceeded expectations, cooling the interest rate cut expectation. Trade policy uncertainty may exacerbate market volatility. Although Israel and Iran signed a cease - fire agreement, geopolitical risks still exist and may impact oil prices. In the third quarter, during the production - increasing season, the supply - demand double - increase pattern may limit the upside, with overall oscillatory operation. In the fourth quarter, entering the seasonal off - peak, combined with the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy and the implementation of biodiesel support policies in relevant countries, the price center may rise [3][43]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Review of the Oils and Fats Market - In the first half of 2025, palm oil prices shifted from a decline to an oscillatory range, with the overall price center moving down. From January to February, prices first declined due to the non - implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy and high - price suppression of demand, then rose due to post - Spring Festival restocking and India's Ramadan备货 demand. In March, prices oscillated, influenced by both negative and positive factors. In April, US tariff policies and concerns about the economy, along with the entry of the production - increasing season, dragged down prices. From May to June, there was no obvious driving factor, and the market fluctuated. From mid - June, prices rose due to geopolitical conflicts and the US biodiesel policy, then retreated and entered an oscillatory phase [8][9]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. MPOB Report - In May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.77 million tons, a 5.05% month - on - month increase; imports were 69,000 tons; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a 25.62% month - on - month increase; and the ending inventory was 1.99 million tons, a 6.65% month - on - month increase. Reuters' survey predicted that in June 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory would be 1.99 million tons, a 0.24% decrease from May; production would be 1.7 million tons, a 4.04% decrease; and exports would be 1.45 million tons, a 4.16% increase [14]. 3.2.2. Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - In June 2025, according to SPPOMA, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 0.65%. MPOA estimated a 4.69% decrease in production from June 1 - 30. UOB predicted a 3% - 7% decrease in production by the end of June. Different institutions' data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June increased compared to May [17][18]. 3.2.3. Indonesia's Situation - In April 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 4.9 million tons, a slight month - on - month increase. Exports were 1.78 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. Domestic consumption was 2.1 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. The inventory was 3.05 million tons [23]. 3.2.4. India's Vegetable Oil Imports - In May 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase. Palm oil imports were 590,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. In June, palm oil imports reached 953,000 tons, a 61% month - on - month increase [26][28]. 3.2.5. China's Oils and Fats Imports - From January to May 2025, China's cumulative palm oil imports were 730,000 tons, far below the five - year average. Cumulative rapeseed oil imports were 1.025 million tons, and cumulative sunflower oil imports were 228,000 tons. The cumulative imports of the three major oils were 1.983 million tons [35][37]. 3.2.6. Domestic Oils and Fats Inventory - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.22 million tons, an increase from the previous week and the same period last year. Soybean oil inventory was 955,200 tons, palm oil inventory was 537,400 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory was 727,400 tons [39]. 3.3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The report reiterates the factors mentioned in the core viewpoints, including the US economic situation, biodiesel policies in different countries, production and inventory changes in Malaysia and Indonesia, and import situations in India and China. It points out that in the third quarter, the market may oscillate, and in the fourth quarter, the price center may rise [42][43].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Views - The finished products are expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving downward and running weakly [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to run in a high - level range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [3] Summary by Related Contents Finished Products - Yunguizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance time is mostly in mid - to late January, with a production resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have or will shut down, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - Finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Aluminum - Macroscopically, Trump escalated trade tensions on Monday, warning 14 countries of higher tariffs, but the effective date was postponed to August 1. The market is waiting for the Fed's latest policy meeting minutes [1] - Domestically, as of last Thursday, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina was 110.82 million tons/year, the operating total capacity was 88.63 million tons/year, and the weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.31 percentage points to 79.97%. As of the end of June, the in - plant inventory of alumina enterprises increased by 81,000 tons [2] - Affected by factors such as the high - temperature off - season, high aluminum prices, insufficient profit margins, and weak downstream demand, the start - up rate of the aluminum processing industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% last week [2] - In the aluminum plate and strip field, enterprises actively reduced production due to insufficient orders and high inventory. In the aluminum cable field, July orders are pessimistic, but the delivery expectation of State Grid orders in the second half of the year is good. Aluminum profile enterprises have weak new orders and are under pressure due to intense processing fee competition [2] - On July 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 478,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last Thursday and 10,000 tons from last Monday. It is expected that the inventory of domestic aluminum ingots will increase steadily in early July [2] - Currently, the off - season inventory accumulation has initially appeared, the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is reflected in the ore price, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. Macro - risk pricing increases, and attention should be paid to domestic policy promotion [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to optimistic sentiments regarding trade agreements between the U.S. and its partners, alongside a strengthening dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields, which collectively exerted downward pressure on gold prices [2][4]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - On July 8, spot gold prices fell over 1%, briefly dropping below the $3,300 per ounce mark, marking a new low in over a week [1][2]. - The decline in gold prices is influenced by multiple factors, including optimistic trade negotiations, a stronger dollar, and rising U.S. Treasury yields, as well as the complexities introduced by Trump's tariff policies [2][4]. - In June, the People's Bank of China continued to increase its gold reserves for the eighth consecutive month, reflecting China's strategic emphasis on gold amid global monetary uncertainties [4]. Group 2: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Analysts predict that gold prices will continue to rise in the second half of the year, with expectations for prices to reach $3,700 per ounce in Q3 and potentially $4,000 by year-end [9]. - The first half of 2025 saw gold prices increase by 25%, setting new records and significantly outperforming the previous year's highs, driven by inflation risks and geopolitical tensions [8][9]. - The market consensus remains bullish on gold, with analysts emphasizing the importance of aligning with market trends rather than attempting to counter them [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the mixed signals in U.S. trade policy, particularly regarding tariff adjustments for various countries, indicating a dual strategy of pressure and negotiation [2] - The U.S. has announced a slight increase in tariffs for Japan and Malaysia from 24% to 25%, while some countries like Kazakhstan and Tunisia will see a decrease, and others like South Korea and Indonesia will maintain their current rates [2] - The market reaction to the trade warnings has been cautiously optimistic, especially with the upcoming negotiations between the U.S. and the EU, as well as the U.S. and India, suggesting potential for lower tariff agreements [2] Group 2 - London silver prices are currently under pressure, with a recent price of $36.59 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.40% [1] - The analysis indicates that silver prices are expected to continue a downward trend, with key support levels at $36.40 and $36.15, and resistance levels at $36.80 and $37.00 [3] - The fluctuations in precious metal prices are being influenced by tariff news and broader market conditions [3]

Core Insights - U.S. corn futures have rebounded, while soybean and wheat futures have seen slight recoveries, indicating a mixed performance in the agricultural futures market [1] - The uncertainty surrounding agricultural futures is heightened by the escalation of Trump's trade policies, which may impact market dynamics [1] - An upcoming U.S. agricultural report is expected to provide insights into crop yield forecasts, which could significantly influence futures market trends [1] Group 1 - U.S. corn futures are experiencing a rebound [1] - Soybean and wheat futures have shown slight recoveries [1] - Trump's trade policies are adding uncertainty to the agricultural futures market [1] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. agricultural report will likely affect crop yield expectations [1] - Crop yield forecasts are crucial for understanding potential impacts on the futures market [1]

期货热点追踪 特朗普一声令下，COMEX铜价昨日大幅上涨，但LME铜市承压背离，全球最大铜生产国如何应对美 国"贸易政策突袭"？ 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - Samsung Electronics reported a significant decline in its second-quarter operating profit, which is expected to be 4.6 trillion KRW, a 56% year-on-year drop and a 31.24% quarter-on-quarter decrease, marking the lowest level in six quarters and falling short of market expectations [2][5][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The anticipated sales for the second quarter are projected to remain flat at 74 trillion KRW [5][21]. - The operating profit of 4.6 trillion KRW is approximately 241 million RMB, indicating a substantial decline compared to previous quarters [5][21]. - This performance is significantly below the LSEG SmartEstimate prediction of a 39% decline to 6.3 trillion KRW [6]. Group 2: Reasons for Decline - The primary reasons for the poor performance include inventory value adjustments and uncertainties due to trade tensions, which have weakened the company's profitability [3][8]. - Samsung's competitive disadvantage in the AI chip sector has become increasingly apparent, particularly in the high bandwidth memory (HBM) chip business [9][10]. - The U.S. trade policies have hindered chip sales, and the company has faced losses in its non-memory chip business due to low utilization rates and trade policies [8][17]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Competitors like SK Hynix and Micron Technology are benefiting from strong demand for advanced HBM chips, with SK Hynix expected to report record quarterly earnings [11][14]. - Analysts predict that by 2025, SK Hynix will hold a 57% market share in the HBM market, while Samsung's share will be 27% [12]. - Samsung's stock performance has lagged behind its competitors, with only a 15% increase this year compared to SK Hynix's 65% and Micron's 37% [14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the dismal second-quarter results, Samsung expresses cautious optimism for the second half of the year, anticipating a narrowing of losses in its foundry business as demand gradually recovers [18][28]. - Analysts suggest that Samsung's profitability may rebound in the third quarter, contingent on the progress of HBM supply to Nvidia and an overall recovery in chip demand [19][28]. - Samsung has announced a stock buyback worth 3.9 trillion KRW to boost investor confidence [28].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of US soybean futures is expected to continue weak and volatile due to the disappointment of trade - policy expectations and favorable weather for crops. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract is affected by the external market and shows a downward trend, with the spot price expected to maintain a bottom - grinding oscillation. [16][17] - For the live hog market, the short - term supply is tight, leading to a relatively strong price fluctuation. However, in the later stage, as the slaughter rhythm recovers, the price increase will slow down and adjust, and the price upside is restricted by the off - season demand and medium - term supply pressure. [17][18] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract declined by 0.58% to 2937 yuan/ton, and the coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main 2509 contract dropped by 0.42% to 14245 yuan/ton. The national average ex - factory price of ternary live hogs was 14.85 yuan/kg, down 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous day. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract remained unchanged at 1048 cents/bushel. [2] 3.2 Weather in Main Producing Areas - There will be local to scattered showers in the mid - week in the US Midwest, with temperatures near to above normal. In the west, there were local to sporadic showers from last Saturday to this Monday, and the temperature was above normal on Saturday, near to above normal on Sunday, and near normal on Monday. In the east, it was mainly dry last Friday, and there were local to sporadic showers from Saturday to Monday, with temperatures above normal from Saturday to Sunday and near to above normal on Monday. From Tuesday to Saturday, there will be local to scattered showers with temperatures near to above normal. Overall, the weather conditions in many areas are still basically favorable. [3][4] 3.3 Macro and Industry News - Last week, the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased but remained at a high level. As of July 4, the crushing volume was 2330000 tons, down 160000 tons week - on - week, up 90000 tons month - on - month, up 340000 tons year - on - year, and up 530000 tons compared with the average of the same period in the past three years. It is expected that the operating rate of oil mills will remain high this week, with a crushing volume of about 2350000 tons. [5] - On July 7, the import cost of US soybeans was 4583 yuan, down 3 yuan from the previous day; that of Brazilian soybeans was 3870 yuan, down 2 yuan; and that of Argentine soybeans was 3686 yuan, down 2 yuan. [5] - On July 4, the national major oil mills' soybean meal sales volume was 63400 tons, down 102500 tons from the previous day. Among them, the spot sales volume was 51400 tons, up 7300 tons, and the far - month basis sales volume was 12000 tons, down 109800 tons. The operating rate of the national dynamic full - sample oil mills was 66.16%, up 1.68% from the previous day. [5] - As of July 4, 2025, the average physical inventory days of soybean meal in domestic feed enterprises was 7.91 days, up 0.16 days from June 27, an increase of 2.04% for the eighth consecutive week, and 3.69% higher than the same period last year. [6] - Based on a domestic crushing volume of 9.5 million tons in July, the soybean meal output will reach about 7.5 million tons, with a large surplus compared to the average monthly consumption of about 6.5 million tons. The soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil mills at the end of June was 510000 tons, and it is expected to continue to rise in late July, possibly reaching over 800000 tons. [6] - In June, due to the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans and strong downstream demand, the operating rate of oil mills remained high, and the domestic major oil mills' soybean crushing volume reached 10.11 million tons, a record high for a single month. It is expected that the high operating rate will continue in July, with a full - month crushing volume of about 9.5 million tons. [6] - In the fourth week of June 2025, Brazil exported a total of 13.4203 million tons of soybeans in 20 working days, with an average daily shipment of 671000 tons, a decrease of 3.86% compared to July last year. [7] - As of the week of July 4, the profit of self - breeding and self - raising live hogs was 119.72 yuan per head, up from 50.25 yuan per head in the previous week; the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was a loss of 26.26 yuan per head, a decrease from a loss of 131.71 yuan per head in the previous week. [7] - In the week of July 3, the average slaughter weight of national ternary live hogs was 123.52 kg, down 0.10 kg from the previous week, a slight decrease of 0.08% month - on - month, hitting a new low in more than four months, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.17%. [7] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in July is 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 4.7%. The probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged in September is 30.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 66.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 3.2%. [7] 3.4 Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, the prices of rapeseed meal in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, the prices of live hogs in Henan and DCE live hog futures, live hog basis, Chinese soybean inventory, and Chinese soybean meal inventory. [10][13][14][15] 3.5 Analysis and Strategies - For soybean meal, the US soybean futures are likely to be weak due to unmet policy expectations and good weather. The domestic M09 contract is affected by the external market. The domestic soybean meal spot market has abundant supply, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. [16][17] - For live hogs, the short - term supply is tight, but the mid - term supply has pressure. The demand is in the off - season. The short - term price is strong, but the upside is limited by supply and demand factors in the later stage. [17][18]

Core Insights - Copper prices for both London and Shanghai futures have declined, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1] - Copper inventories have increased for four consecutive days, suggesting a potential oversupply situation [1] - Upcoming announcements from Trump regarding trade policies may significantly impact future copper price movements [1] Group 1 - The decline in copper prices reflects broader market concerns and potential shifts in demand [1] - The continuous rise in copper inventories could lead to further price pressure if the trend persists [1] - The market is closely monitoring trade policy developments, which could introduce volatility in copper prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is facing unprecedented complexity due to the impact of tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration, which are significantly influencing interest rate decisions [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Monetary Policy - The announcement of new tariffs in April has led to a comprehensive adjustment of the Federal Reserve's economic forecasting models, necessitating a reevaluation of inflation prospects [3]. - Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes from June indicate that policymakers discussed the effects of tariffs in depth, ultimately deciding to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time [3][5]. - The policy statement highlighted "changes in the global trade environment" as a new risk factor [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following Powell's remarks, the bond market reacted with a 5 basis point drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which later rebounded by 3 basis points, reflecting investor confusion regarding policy outlook [5]. - The U.S. labor market remains tight with an unemployment rate at a historical low of 3.8%, while manufacturing activity indices have been below the neutral level for two consecutive months [5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for imported goods increased by 1.2% month-over-month, significantly above historical averages, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [5]. Group 3: Future Policy Expectations - Despite Powell's current stance against rate cuts, market expectations suggest a 65% probability of a rate cut in September, with uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the cut [6]. - Powell emphasized the need for data reliance and policy flexibility in response to the evolving trade policy landscape, indicating a shift in the Fed's approach to monetary policy [8]. - The intertwining of political and economic factors is expected to complicate future monetary policy decisions, as noted by a former Fed official [9].