美国5月产能利用率 77.4%，预期77.70%，前值77.70%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - V2509 rose and then fell, closing at 4,833 yuan/ton. The supply side was affected by the extended impact of previously shut - down devices such as Qilu Petrochemical and Fujian Wanhua. Last week, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.47% to 79.25% week - on - week. - On the demand side, last week, the downstream PVC operating rate decreased by 0.47% to 45.8% week - on - week. Among them, the pipe operating rate decreased by 1.44% to 42.94% week - on - week, and the profile operating rate decreased by 0.5% to 37.55% week - on - week. - In terms of inventory, last week, the PVC social inventory decreased by 2.59% to 573,600 tons week - on - week, maintaining a destocking trend with low inventory pressure. - In June, there were many domestic PVC annual inspection devices. This week, the 200,000 - ton device of Henan Yuhang was planned for annual inspection, and the capacity utilization rate was expected to continue to decline. - The domestic downstream demand was in the off - season, and the Indian market was affected by uncertainties such as BIS certification and anti - dumping duties and the rainy season. - In terms of cost, domestic calcium carbide shut - down devices remained, and some devices had indefinite production restrictions, supporting the calcium carbide price. The import volume of ethylene decreased, and the price might be strongly sorted. PVC had weak supply and demand, and the strong cost provided support for the futures price. The daily K - line of V2509 should pay attention to the support near 4,790 and the pressure near 4,900 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC was 4,833 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan. The trading volume was 834,032 lots, a decrease of 360,614 lots. The open interest was 962,017 lots, a decrease of 16,925 lots. - The buy order volume of the top 20 futures positions was 762,413 lots, an increase of 6,957 lots. The sell order volume was 778,513 lots, an increase of 9,691 lots. The net buy order volume was - 16,100 lots, a decrease of 2,734 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,755.38 yuan/ton, unchanged. - In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,955 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,822.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan. - The CIF price of PVC in China was 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,698.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 564 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 176 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 178 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 79.25%, a decrease of 1.47%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 81.77%, a decrease of 0.54%. The operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 72.59%, a decrease of 3.94%. - The total social inventory of PVC was 354,800 tons, a decrease of 6,600 tons. The total social inventory in the East China region was 312,200 tons, a decrease of 6,600 tons. The total social inventory in the South China region was 42,600 tons, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The National Real Estate Climate Index was 93.86, a decrease of 0.1. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 178.3584 million square meters, an increase of 48.3938 million square meters. - The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.2031505 billion square meters, an increase of 66.0961 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 148.7313 billion yuan, an increase of 387.111 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 14.06%, an increase of 0.04%. The 40 - day historical volatility was 16.55%, an increase of 0.04%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 20.59%, a decrease of 0.18%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 20.58%, a decrease of 0.19% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On June 17, the cash - spot price of Changzhou PVCSG5 in the warehouse remained stable compared with the previous day, ranging from 4,720 to 4,790 yuan/ton. - From June 6th to 12th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.25%, a decrease of 1.47% compared with the previous period. - As of June 12th, the new sample statistics of PVC social inventory decreased by 2.59% to 573,600 tons week - on - week and decreased by 36.83% year - on - year [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests treating the market by short - selling on rebounds [3] - The steel market is still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and it is recommended to short - sell on rebounds based on the current situation [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Steel Industry Operating Data - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 56.73%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.97 percentage points The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.44%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 2.4161 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 million tons [2] Home Appliance Industry Sales Data - According to Aowei Cloud Network, the offline retail sales of color TVs in May increased by 34.2% year - on - year; among various white - goods categories in May, the offline retail sales of refrigerators, freezers, washing machines, independent dryers, and air conditioners increased by 29.3%, 8.6%, 28.7%, 41.0%, and 38.7% year - on - year respectively [2] Steel Market Analysis - Last week, the steel price moved sideways The good communication between China and the US at the macro - level had a certain impact on the price, but the driving force was insufficient The market mainly traded based on the industry fundamentals The steel fundamentals announced by the Steel Union last week were normal without many highlights Overall, the steel still faced a situation of strong supply and weak demand The steel mill operating rate and pig iron output remained at a high level, but the downstream had entered the off - season High temperature, rainfall, and the high - school entrance examination and college entrance examination affected construction, and there were no signs of short - term improvement in the downstream, and there was even room for further decline [2] Later Focus - Later, attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand situations [3]

加拿大第一季度产能利用率 80.1%，预期79.8%，前值79.80%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the financial performance and challenges faced by Shanghai Kangpeng Technology Co., Ltd., particularly in its new materials and CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) businesses, indicating a decline in revenue and profit margins due to market competition and pricing pressures [1][2][3]. New Materials Business - The overall gross margin for new materials in Q1 2025 was 1.19%, a decrease of 1.51 percentage points compared to 2024, with specific segments showing varied performance [1][2]. - Display materials saw a gross margin increase of 0.26 percentage points, while new energy battery materials and electronic chemicals decreased by 1.89 percentage points, and organic silicon materials decreased by 0.71 percentage points [1][2]. - Revenue from new materials for 2022 to 2024 was reported as 683 million, 570 million, and 295 million respectively, with the decline attributed to insufficient downstream demand and intense market competition [3][18]. CDMO Business - CDMO business revenue for 2024 was 295 million, a 48.29% decrease from 2023, while Q1 2025 revenue was 161 million, showing a 77.55% year-on-year increase [2][18]. - The gross margin for CDMO business in 2024 was 23.17%, down 16.06 percentage points from the previous year, primarily due to fluctuations in customer order plans and price reductions from centralized procurement [18][19]. - The company is facing risks related to customer dependency and potential revenue declines due to changes in client orders and market conditions [19]. Customer Analysis - The report includes a detailed breakdown of the top five customers for new materials from 2022 to 2024, highlighting the sales methods, pricing models, and revenue recognition practices [3][19]. - The competitive landscape for the new energy battery materials and electronic chemicals segment is intensifying, with significant changes in market share among the top ten companies in the industry from 2023 to 2024 [8][12]. Strategic Measures - The company plans to improve gross margins through cost reduction, technological innovation, and product diversification, including the introduction of new catalysts and materials in its product line [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The financial report of Shanghai Kangpeng Technology Co., Ltd. indicates a decline in revenue and gross margin in its new materials and CDMO businesses, primarily due to market competition and changes in customer demand [1][13]. New Materials Business - The new materials segment includes display materials, new energy battery materials, electronic chemicals, and silicone materials, with revenues of 683 million, 688 million, and 648 million CNY from 2022 to 2024 respectively [1]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to insufficient downstream demand and intense market competition, leading to pressure on product prices [1][6]. - The gross margin for new materials products has decreased, with specific reasons including a drop in display material prices and increased competition in the lithium battery materials sector [8][9]. - The company plans to improve gross margins through cost reduction, technological innovation, and product diversification [10][12]. CDMO Business - The CDMO business, which includes pharmaceutical and agricultural chemicals, reported revenues of 527 million, 570 million, and 295 million CNY from 2022 to 2024, with gross margins of 25.66%, 39.23%, and 23.17% respectively [13][18]. - The significant drop in 2024 revenue (down 48.29%) is mainly due to fluctuations in customer order plans and price reductions from centralized procurement [13][18]. - The gross margin for the CDMO business has been affected by competitive pressures and changes in product mix, with domestic sales facing lower margins compared to international sales [18][19]. - The company has identified risks related to customer dependency and potential revenue declines due to market conditions and pricing pressures [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, supply pressure is gradually increasing, demand has not improved significantly, and although the futures market has a short - term rebound, the upward pressure is large. It is recommended to short after the rebound of the soda ash main contract [2]. - For glass, the current futures price has fallen below the profit support, and there is still upward momentum from the basis regression. In the short - term, it is advisable to go long at low prices, while in the medium - to - long - term, it is advisable to go short [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is 1175 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; glass main contract closing price is 981 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan [2]. - The price difference between soda ash and glass is 194 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; soda ash main contract open interest is 1,602,361 lots, an increase of 105,599 lots; glass main contract open interest is 1,490,737 lots, an increase of 64,703 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net position is - 314,426 lots, down 15,120 lots; glass top 20 net position is - 233,116 lots, down 17,006 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 5,495 tons, unchanged; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 877 tons, unchanged [2]. - The price difference between soda ash September - January contracts is 10 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the price difference between glass September - January contracts is - 59 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Soda ash basis is 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan; glass basis is 67 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1,240 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash is 1,305 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Central China light soda ash is 1,265 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - Shahe glass large plate is 1,048 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass large plate is 1,070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash plant operating rate is 80.76%, an increase of 2.19 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate is 75.53%, down 0.15 percentage points [2]. Industry Situation - Glass in - production capacity is 15.68 million tons/year, an increase of 0.05 million tons; the number of glass in - production production lines is 224, down 1 [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 1.6783 billion tons, an increase of 513,000 tons; glass enterprise inventory is 69.754 million heavy boxes, an increase of 2.092 million heavy boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of real estate new construction area is 178.3584 million square meters, an increase of 48.3938 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate completion area is 156.4785 million square meters, an increase of 25.8758 million square meters [2]. Industry News - China and the US have reached a framework on implementing the consensus of the two heads - of - state phone call and the Geneva talks [2]. - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has no further information on the next arrangements for China - US economic and trade consultations [2]. - China will implement zero - tariff on 100% of tariff items for 53 African diplomatic countries [2]. - The central bank conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation on June 7 to release medium - and long - term liquidity [2]. - Industrial Securities clarified that it has not received any written or oral information about the merger with Huafu Securities [2]. - From January to May, China's automobile sales reached 12.748 million vehicles, with new energy vehicles accounting for 44% [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, although the overall profit of the soda ash industry has declined, natural soda ash projects still maintain high profits. The maintenance of traditional backward production capacity has intensified, and the expansion of natural soda ash project capacity has led to an increase in production and capacity utilization, resulting in large supply pressure [2]. - On the demand side, futures and spot traders are active in restocking, but the decline in soda ash spot prices is expected to lead to a decline in demand. The continuous decline in glass production also drags down the demand for soda ash, and the subsequent de - stocking speed of soda ash will slow down [2]. - For glass, on the supply side, a new cold - repair production line has been added, the weekly output has decreased, the industry's overall profit is poor, and the willingness of enterprises to support prices is limited. On the demand side, the real - estate situation is not optimistic, the demand will further weaken in the off - season, downstream deep - processing orders are unstable, and procurement is mainly for rigid demand [3].

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-06-12 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11035 | -190 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 21103 | -1662 | | | 合成橡胶7-8价差(日,元/吨) | 190 | 10 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 5470 | -100 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 11550 | -50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 东(日,元/吨) | 11450 | -50 | | | | 11450 | -50 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese PS industry has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 13% since 2019, driven by profit motives, downstream demand growth, and integrated project extensions, but is now facing an oversupply situation due to demand growth lagging behind supply growth [1][3][5] - The industry is expected to continue expanding, with total PS capacity projected to exceed 8 million tons by the end of 2025 [1] Production Capacity and Utilization - From 2020 to 2024, domestic PS capacity is steadily increasing, with a CAGR of 13.36% since 2019, although the pace of new project launches is slowing down due to mismatched supply and demand growth [1][3] - The annual capacity utilization rate for the PS industry is projected to decline to 63.87% in 2024 and below 60% by the end of 2025 [5] Profitability Trends - The profitability of the PS industry has fluctuated, with a peak in 2020 due to export benefits, where GPPS and HIPS gross profit margins reached 1722 CNY/ton and 3200 CNY/ton respectively [3] - Since 2021, the industry has faced declining profitability, with average losses for GPPS and HIPS due to supply-demand imbalances, although a slight recovery is expected in 2024-2025 [3][5] Import and Export Dynamics - The import dependency of the Chinese PS market has decreased, with the import volume declining to a low of 10.65% as domestic production has increased [7] - The export volume of Chinese PS has seen a compound growth rate of 40.52% since 2019, with exports expected to reach 215,900 tons in 2024, nearly six times the volume in 2020 [7][9] Regional Export Insights - Southeast Asia remains the primary export market for Chinese PS, with Vietnam consistently accounting for 21-28% of exports from 2020 to 2025 [9] - The share of exports to Europe has increased from 4% in 2021 to 22% in 2024, driven by high costs in Europe and a demand gap [10] Future Outlook - The competition in the PS market is expected to intensify, leading to further price advantages and a stable increase in export proportions, particularly for ordinary grades of PS [12][14] - The supply of high-end PS resources remains limited, with the majority of future demand likely to be met domestically rather than through exports [14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The trend strength of asphalt is 1, indicating a neutral stance on the market [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: For BU2507, the yesterday's closing price was 3,488 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.54%, and the night - session closing price was 3,499 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.32%. The trading volume was 40,556 lots, a decrease of 24,713 lots, and the open interest was 60,928 lots, a decrease of 5,025 lots. For BU2508, the yesterday's closing price was 3,481 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.54%, and the night - session closing price was 3,492 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.32%. The trading volume was 12,192 lots, a decrease of 12,074 lots, and the open interest was 27,815 lots, a decrease of 1,908 lots [1] - Spot Market: The yesterday's price of Shandong wholesale was 3,725 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,775 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,907 yuan/ton. The yesterday's price of the Yangtze River Delta wholesale was 3,670 yuan/ton, with no change, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,656 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,707 yuan/ton [1] - Spread: The basis (Shandong - 07) was 237 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the 07 - 08 inter - period spread was 7 yuan/ton, with no change; the Shandong - South China spread was 315, an increase of 30; the East China - South China spread was 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [1] - Inventory and Production: As of June 9, the refinery operating rate was 34.49%, an increase of 0.95% compared with June 5, and the refinery inventory rate was 30.29%, a decrease of 0.54% compared with June 5 [1] Market Information - Capacity Utilization: From June 5 - 11, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 31.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The reason was that although some Shandong refineries switched to produce residual oil, some main refineries in East China increased production [11] - Maintenance Volume: From June 5 - 11, 2025, the domestic asphalt plant maintenance volume was 70.8 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons or 4.1% compared with the previous week. The reason was that although Jiangsu Xinhai switched to produce residual oil, Sinochem Quanzhou had intermittent resumption of production, leading to a decrease in the loss volume [11] - Shipment Volume: From June 4 - 10, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 434,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.0%. Regionally, the changes in North China and East China were more obvious. In North China, the contract volume at the beginning of the month was relatively small, resulting in a significant decrease in shipment volume, while in East China, the main refineries had intermittent production increases and good ship shipments, driving an increase in regional shipment volume [11]