Group 1 - LME metal futures show mixed performance influenced by fluctuations in the US dollar and escalating tensions in the Middle East [1] - China's imports of aluminum ore have significantly increased, while exports of unwrought copper have declined, indicating a shift in supply and demand dynamics [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cost-driven upward momentum for polyolefins has weakened, and they are experiencing high-level oscillations. Polyolefins are in a stage of strong cost and weak supply-demand dynamics. In the short term, cost logic still provides support, but as the geopolitical risk premium fades, polyolefins face the pressure of a high-level decline [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The L2509 contract of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened higher, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed up at 7,317 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (0.51%), with a trading volume of 470,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 8,529 to 486,231 lots. The main contract of polypropylene (PP) closed at 7,125 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan (0.25%), with a decrease in open interest of 4,930 to 455,500 lots. The futures rally has narrowed, and the market trading atmosphere has significantly declined. The supply-demand pattern has changed little. With the weakening of maintenance efforts and the launch of new production capacity, supply-side pressure has resurfaced. The downstream agricultural film industry's operating rate has declined to a relatively low level for the year, the packaging industry's short-term willingness to stock raw materials and finished products is not high, and the plastic weaving industry's operating rate is significantly lower than the same period in previous years [4]. 3.2 Industry News - On June 17, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 825,000 tons, up 15,000 tons or 1.85% from the previous working day, compared with 820,000 tons in the same period last year. The domestic PP market showed a narrow consolidation. Traders faced increased resistance in selling, and some high-price quotes were slightly adjusted downward yesterday, while others remained basically stable. Downstream factories mainly adopted a wait-and-see attitude, and actual transactions were dull. The mainstream prices of North China's drawn PP were between 7,100 - 7,250 yuan/ton, East China's between 7,130 - 7,230 yuan/ton, and South China's between 7,100 - 7,330 yuan/ton. The PE market prices continued to rise. In North China, some linear PE prices rose by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, some high-pressure PE prices rose by 50 - 250 yuan/ton, and low-pressure PE prices fluctuated by 30 - 100 yuan/ton. In East China, some high-pressure PE prices rose by 50 - 300 yuan/ton, and low-pressure and linear PE prices rose by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. In South China, linear and low-pressure PE prices fluctuated by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, and high-pressure PE prices rose by 50 - 200 yuan/ton. The prices of LLDPE in North China were between 7,280 - 7,430 yuan/ton, in East China between 7,350 - 7,750 yuan/ton, and in South China between 7,470 - 7,700 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two major oil companies' inventory, and two major oil companies' inventory year-on-year increase/decrease rate, but specific data values in the charts are not described in detail in the text [7][14][16].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuates. The supply - demand pattern of rebar weakens seasonally, pressuring the steel price. However, inventory is decreasing at a low level, and the real - world contradictions are limited. The short - term trend will maintain a low - level fluctuating pattern, and attention should be paid to demand changes [4][38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price fluctuates. The supply pressure eases slightly, and the demand is weakly stable. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils have not improved, and the price is under pressure. But overseas risks are easing, so it is expected that the price will continue the low - level fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4][38]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fluctuates weakly. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of iron ore remains unchanged, and the fundamentals are weakening, pressuring the ore price. The relatively positive factor is the large discount of the futures price. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price will continue the weakly fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to the change in molten iron [4][39]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - From January to May 2025, Shanghai's urban infrastructure investment increased by 19.1% year - on - year, and the city's total social fixed - asset investment increased by 6.2% year - on - year [6]. - In May 2025, the production of commercial vehicles was 336,000 units (a month - on - month decrease of 7.4% and a year - on - year increase of 4.4%), and the sales were 335,000 units (a month - on - month decrease of 8.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2%). From January to May, the production and sales were 1.746 million and 1.753 million units respectively, with year - on - year increases of 4.2% and 1.2% [7]. - Australian mining company Tempest Minerals announced the test results of the Remorse iron ore project, with an iron ore grade of up to 70%, and most samples have an iron content of over 68% and extremely low impurity levels [8]. Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price is 3,060 yuan, Tianjin is 3,200 yuan, and the national average is 3,229 yuan. - Hot - rolled coil: The Shanghai price is 3,190 yuan, Tianjin is 3,110 yuan, and the national average is 3,233 yuan. - Other products: The price of Tangshan billet is 2,920 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,100 yuan. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 714 yuan [9]. Futures Market | Product | Closing Price | Change (%) | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 2,981 | 0.17 | 1,046,277 | - 491,145 | 2,140,997 | - 23,735 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3,093 | 0.13 | 353,677 | - 249,865 | 1,522,669 | - 5,724 | | Iron ore | 699.0 | - 0.07 | 319,182 | - 219,028 | 675,663 | - 9,829 | [11] Relevant Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Includes charts of rebar inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory) [13][14][19]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Includes charts of 45 - port iron ore inventory (total inventory, seasonal inventory), 247 - steel mill iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron ore concentrate inventory [20][21][26]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Includes charts of 247 - sample steel mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, 87 - independent electric furnace operating rate, 247 - steel mill profitable steel mill ratio, and 75 - building material independent electric arc furnace steel mill profit and loss situation [28][29][31]. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply and demand are both declining. Supply is at a low level for the year, and inventory is decreasing, which supports the steel price. However, the sustainability of production cuts is questionable. Demand is seasonally weak, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged. The short - term trend is a low - level fluctuation, and attention should be paid to demand changes [38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. Although production has decreased due to steel mill maintenance, it is still at a high level for the year, and supply pressure is difficult to relieve. Demand is weakly stable, and industry contradictions are accumulating. Overseas risks are easing, and the price is expected to continue the low - level fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to demand performance [38]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern weakens as expected, and inventory is accumulating. Steel mill production is weak in the off - season, and ore consumption is declining. Supply remains at a high level. The price is under pressure, and the futures price discount is large. The price will continue the weakly fluctuating trend, and attention should be paid to the change in molten iron [39].

[Table_Date] 2025 年 6 月 15 日 本周沪锡价格环比上涨，海外供给偏紧预期对 锡价或有支撑 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►本周沪镍价格环比下跌，纯镍供给仍旧过剩 截止到 6 月 13 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 14,970.00 美 元/吨，较 6 月 6 日下跌 1.67%，LME 镍总库存为 197,538.00 吨，较 6 月 6 日减少 1.28%；沪镍报收 12.01 万元/吨，较 6 月 6 日下跌 2.13%，沪镍库存为 25,693.00 吨，较 6 月 6 日增加 0.30%；截止到 6 月 13 日，硫酸镍报收 28,500.00 元/吨，较 6 月 6 日价格持平。根据 SMM，从供给端来看，国内方面，菲 律宾的镍矿发运量继续增加，冶炼厂的原料库存较为充足。然 而，因成品价格下跌，部分国内冶炼厂可能会选择降低生产负 荷，这可能导致国内金属供应量趋弱。印尼方面，内贸火法镍 矿的升水依然坚挺，冶炼厂面临较大的成本压力。从需求端来 看，本周不锈钢市场出现大幅波动，主要头部企业采取不限价 不限量的政策 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the content. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rise in crude oil prices has driven the upward movement of styrene, but pure benzene remains relatively weak. In the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction of styrene has slightly eased, and the market shows a structure of stronger near - term contracts and weaker far - term contracts. In the long - term, styrene prices may be dragged down by the downward trend of pure benzene [1][4]. - For pure benzene, with the restart of previously shut - down units, supply will further increase in June, and it is expected to be in a significant inventory accumulation state. Attention should be paid to whether the blending oil demand will bring marginal changes to the supply - demand pattern [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On June 11, the main styrene contract closed up 0.37% at 7349 yuan/ton, with a basis of 411 yuan/ton (+67 yuan/ton). The closing price of the main Brent crude oil contract was 65.0 dollars/barrel (-0.3 dollars/barrel), the main WTI crude oil contract closed at 66.9 dollars/barrel (-0.1 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6040 yuan/ton (-25 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene sample factory inventory was 19.1 million tons (+2.0 million tons), a 12.2% month - on - month increase; Jiangsu port inventory was 8.9 million tons (+1.4 million tons), a 19.4% month - on - month increase, indicating that styrene has started to accumulate inventory [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene maintenance units are expected to gradually resume operation in mid - to - late June, with an expected increase in supply. Currently, the weekly styrene output has increased by 0.4% month - on - month to 33.1 million tons (+0.1 million tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate is 72.3% (+0.3%) [2]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of downstream 3S products vary. The EPS capacity utilization rate is 46.4% (-12.3%), the ABS capacity utilization rate is 64.0% (+1.70%), and the PS capacity utilization rate is 59.2% (-2.6%) [2][3]. - **Viewpoints** - **Pure Benzene**: Affected by the restart of previously shut - down units, the operating rates of petroleum benzene and hydro - benzene have continued to rise, driving an increase in supply - side output. Overall, the downstream demand for pure benzene is basically the same as last week, and the supply - demand gap has significantly narrowed within the week. In the future, as some maintenance units gradually resume operation, supply will further increase, and it is expected to be in a significant inventory accumulation state in June [3]. - **Styrene**: On the supply side, the units are gradually resuming operation, and the current peak of styrene maintenance is basically over, with a steady increase in subsequent supply. On the demand side, the comprehensive demand for 3S products has significantly declined. As 3S enters the seasonal demand off - season, the demand support for styrene depends on the commissioning of several new PS and ABS units in the third quarter. The inventory in East China ports has increased significantly for two consecutive weeks. The spot market and the basis in late June continue to weaken under the expectation of increased supply, but there is still a certain price difference with late July [4]. II. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Styrene & Pure Benzene Prices**: On June 11, the price of the styrene futures continuous contract increased by 0.04% to 7349 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged at 7886 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 19.48% to 411 yuan/ton. The price of pure benzene in East China decreased by 0.41% to 6040 yuan/ton, the price of pure benzene (South Korea FOB) increased by 0.28% to 724.5 dollars/ton, the price of pure benzene (US FOB) remained unchanged at 790.5 dollars/ton, and the price of pure benzene (China CFR) decreased by 0.13% to 742.5 dollars/ton [5]. - **Styrene & Pure Benzene Output and Inventory**: From May 30 to June 6, China's styrene output increased by 0.40% to 33.1 million tons, and pure benzene output increased by 5.93% to 42.5 million tons. Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 19.44% to 8.9 million tons, domestic styrene factory inventory increased by 12.16% to 19.1 million tons, and the national pure benzene port inventory increased by 1.40% to 14.5 million tons [6]. - **Operating Rate**: From May 30 to June 6, the capacity utilization rate of styrene increased by 0.30% to 72.3%, the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam decreased by 1.59% to 86.9%, the capacity utilization rate of phenol increased by 3.80% to 78.8%, and the capacity utilization rate of aniline decreased by 4.61% to 65.8%. Among styrene downstream products, the EPS capacity utilization rate decreased by 12.25% to 46.4%, the ABS capacity utilization rate increased by 1.70% to 64.0%, and the PS capacity utilization rate decreased by 2.60% to 59.2% [7]. III. Industry News - Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Li Chenggang stated that China and the US have reached a consensus on the trade framework and will report to the leaders. - The Russian Ambassador to the US said that a new round of Russia - US talks will be held in Moscow soon. - The US travel ban on citizens from 12 countries has come into effect [8]. IV. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides charts on pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene price differences, SM imported pure benzene costs vs. domestic pure benzene costs, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [9][14][15][18][19][21][24][25][26].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall energy and chemical sector is in a volatile trend. The downstream of the chemical industry is generally weak, with the terminal order index declining compared to May. The peak of supply - side maintenance was in May, and after destocking in May, the market frequently trades on the progress of device maintenance and restart. Currently, the maintenance schedule of a large refinery's reforming unit in East China is crucial. The energy and chemical sector should be treated with a volatile mindset [2]. - The geopolitical risk of crude oil is rising, and oil price fluctuations are intensifying. OPEC+ production increase and geopolitical uncertainties make the oil price at a high - risk stage [1][4]. - The overall supply - demand situation of various energy and chemical products is different. For example, LPG demand is still weak, asphalt is over - valued, and PTA supply increases while demand decreases [2][5][11]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market View - **Crude Oil**: On June 11, SC2507 closed at 478.1 yuan/barrel with a change of - 0.35%, and Brent2508 closed at 70.78 dollars/barrel with a change of + 6.28%. Geopolitical risks are rising, and the market is worried about direct military conflicts between the US, Israel and Iran. OPEC+ production increase makes the supply expected to be relatively excessive, and the oil price is in a high - risk stage, expected to fluctuate [4]. - **LPG**: On June 11, PG 2507 closed at 4130 yuan/ton with a change of + 0.27%. Domestic refinery maintenance is gradually restored, supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The upward rebound space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [8][9]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt futures closed at 3483 yuan/ton. The asphalt price is over - valued, and the asphalt spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts. The price is under pressure from factors such as increased heavy - oil supply and sufficient domestic raw material supply [4][5]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The main high - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2966 yuan/ton. Supply is increasing and demand is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [5][7]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The main low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3559 yuan/ton. It follows the crude oil to fluctuate, with weak supply - demand, and is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [8]. - **Methanol**: On June 11, the methanol price fluctuated. The port inventory is gradually entering the accumulation cycle, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [17]. - **Urea**: On June 11, the urea factory - warehouse and market low - end prices were 1730 and 1740 yuan/ton respectively. The supply is strong and demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [17]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On June 11, the ethylene glycol price fluctuated. The market trading logic is shifting, and it is recommended to wait and see. It has support at 4200 - 4300 yuan, and short - selling is not recommended [13]. - **PX**: On June 11, PX CFR China Taiwan was 812 dollars/ton. The cost - end guidance slows down, and the supply - demand game intensifies. It is expected to continue to consolidate [10]. - **PTA**: On June 11, the PTA spot price was 4820 yuan/ton. Supply increases and demand decreases, and the market price is expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. - **Styrene**: On June 11, the East China styrene spot price was 7720 yuan/ton. Driven by the macro - meeting and device rumors, it rebounds, but the subsequent driving force is insufficient, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: On June 9, the direct - spinning polyester short - fiber followed the raw materials to fluctuate. The supply - side pressure is relieved, and the processing fee compression space is limited. It is expected to be dominated by macro - negative factors [14][15]. - **Bottle - Chip**: On June 11, the polyester bottle - chip factory price was mostly stable. The low processing fee continues, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 400 yuan/ton [15][16]. - **PP**: On June 11, the East China wire - drawing mainstream transaction price was 7050 yuan/ton. The cost - end support marginally rebounds, but the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [20]. - **Plastic**: On June 11, the LLDPE spot mainstream price was 7150 yuan/ton. The cost - end support marginally rebounds, but the supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [19]. - **PVC**: On June 11, the East China calcium - carbide - method PVC benchmark price was 4790 yuan/ton. The short - term sentiment warms up, and it rebounds weakly. In the long - term, the supply - demand is pessimistic, and the price is under pressure [22]. - **Caustic Soda**: On June 11, the Shandong 32% caustic soda converted to 100% price was 2719 yuan/ton. The spot price has peaked, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The 09 - contract fundamental expectation is pessimistic [22]. 2. Variety Data Monitoring (1) Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as SC, WTI, Brent, etc. have different changes. For example, SC's M1 - M2 spread is 5 with a change of 1, and WTI's M1 - M2 spread is 1.09 with a change of 0.02 [23]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of various varieties are provided. For example, the asphalt basis is 259 with a change of 17, and the warehouse receipt is 91510 [24]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of pairs such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are presented with their corresponding changes [25]. (2) Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The data for specific chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. are mentioned, but detailed data are not fully provided in the summary part [26][38][50].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 淡季需求走弱，钢价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局偏弱运行，建筑钢厂转产，螺纹钢产量持续下降，供应迎来收缩。不过，淡季 螺纹需求表现疲弱，高频指标低位运行。总之，低库存格局显示螺纹现实矛盾不大，但供需双弱局 面下基本面并未改善，淡季钢价仍易承压，预计后续走势延续震荡寻底态势，关注今日钢联公布的 产销数据情况。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing China-US talks have improved market sentiment, leading to a slight rebound in the futures market. However, the traditional off-season for steel has arrived, with weakening demand and abundant raw material supply, suggesting limited fundamental support for the rebound [3]. - The current fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable, but future concerns are emerging. Supply is increasing while demand is expected to decline, which may lead to slower inventory depletion and potential accumulation [19]. - The relaxation of China-US relations has boosted market sentiment, causing coking coal to rebound due to previous overselling. Coke has also followed, but its rebound is weaker due to downstream price cuts. The demand for coking coal and coke has rigid support in the short term [34]. - Short - term market sentiment for ferroalloys has improved, but the long - term trend remains weak due to factors such as steel mill price pressure, cost decline, and the off - season for steel demand. However, the high - inventory issue is gradually weakening, and the supply is at a low level [51]. - The production of soda ash is expected to gradually recover, and the market remains in a long - term oversupply situation. The demand is stable overall, but the photovoltaic sector may return to an oversupply pattern [65]. - The glass market has a nearly 10% decline in cumulative apparent demand. To balance supply and demand in the second half of the year, the daily melting volume needs to decline. The current valuation is low, but the short - term fundamentals and cost support are weak [93]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts increased slightly compared to the previous day. The basis and spreads of different contracts also showed certain changes [4][8]. - **Market Situation**: The off - season has led to a decline in some steel demand, such as a significant decrease in the outbound volume of building materials in Hangzhou and inventory accumulation in multiple regions for hot - rolled coils. Although steel mills maintain production through product switching, the supply of raw materials is abundant, and the rebound of the futures market lacks strong fundamental support [3]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore futures contracts increased compared to the previous day, while the basis decreased. The daily and weekly changes in different contracts varied [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global iron ore shipments have increased significantly, and the demand is expected to decline. The production of five major steel products has not decreased significantly, but the demand has a seasonal decline, increasing the inventory depletion pressure [19][28]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the coking coal and coke futures prices, basis, and spreads showed different degrees of changes. The coking coal prices rebounded more strongly, and the coking profit on the futures market shrank [35]. - **Market Situation**: The relaxation of China - US relations has driven the rebound of coking coal and coke. The current basis is in a reasonable range, and the demand for coking coal and coke has rigid support in the short term [34]. Ferroalloys - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese spot and futures contracts, as well as their basis and spreads, showed different changes. The cost of ferrosilicon and the prices of raw materials for ferromanganese also changed to some extent [52][53]. - **Market Situation**: Short - term market sentiment has improved, but the long - term trend is still weak. The high - inventory issue is gradually weakening, and the supply is at a low level, with the cost expected to decline [51]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased slightly, and the basis and spreads also changed. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions remained stable [67][68]. - **Market Situation**: The production of soda ash is expected to recover, and the market is in a long - term oversupply situation. The demand is stable overall, but the photovoltaic sector may return to an oversupply pattern [65]. Glass - **Price Data**: On June 11, 2025, the prices of glass futures contracts showed different trends, and the basis and spreads also changed. The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions varied [94][97]. - **Market Situation**: The cumulative apparent demand for glass has declined nearly 10%. To balance supply and demand in the second half of the year, the daily melting volume needs to decline. The current valuation is low, but the short - term fundamentals and cost support are weak [93].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: On June 11, the main coke contract closed at 1356 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.31%. The spot market price at Rizhao Port decreased week-on-week. The coke market has a weak fundamental situation, with a supply - demand double - decline since May. However, factors such as coking coal supply disruptions and the easing of Sino - US relations have led to a slight price rebound, and the main contract is in low - level volatile operation [5][32]. - **Coking Coal**: On June 11, the main coking coal contract closed at 783.5 points, with an intraday increase of 1.10%. Since late May, the output of some coal mines has declined, and in June, domestic coking coal production is uncertain due to safety and environmental inspections. The political turmoil in Mongolia has also worried the market. The coking coal contract has rebounded at a low level, but the medium - to - long - term supply - demand pattern has not reversed [6][33]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - From January to May, China's automobile production and sales reached 12.826 million and 12.748 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 10.9%. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 5.699 million and 5.608 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 45.2% and 44%, accounting for 44% of total vehicle sales [8]. - On June 11, the auction price of coking coal in Linfen Puxian market decreased. The starting price of low - sulfur fat coal was 1100 yuan/ton, and 10,000 tons were sold at the base price, a decrease of 51 yuan/ton compared with May 28 [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1270 yuan/ton | - 5.22% | - 5.22% | - 24.85% | - 36.18% [10] | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1180 yuan/ton | - 0.84% | - 3.28% | - 27.16% | - 38.86% [10] | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 900 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 2.17% | - 23.73% | - 44.44% [10] | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian coal) | 1200 yuan/ton | - 4.76% | - 5.51% | - 19.46% | - 44.44% [10] | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi coal) | 1250 yuan/ton | - 3.10% | - 3.10% | - 18.30% | - 39.02% [10] | Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1356.0 yuan/ton | 1.31% | 1365.5 yuan/ton | 1339.0 yuan/ton | 25,401 | - 5,911 | 52,791 | - 1,227 [13] | | Coking Coal | | 783.5 points | 1.10% | 801.0 points | 778.5 points | 1,152,104 | - 265,124 | 557,029 | - 10,814 [13] | Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, ports, and total coke inventory from 2020 - 2025 [14][15][16]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel - mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal from 2019 - 2025 [20][23][25]. - **Other Charts**: Include Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel - mill production, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation charts [27][29][30]. Market Outlook - **Coke**: The fundamental situation is weak, but short - term factors have led to a price rebound. The main contract will continue low - level volatile operation [5][32]. - **Coking Coal**: The short - term price has rebounded, but the medium - to - long - term supply - demand pattern has not changed, and the sustainability of the rebound needs to be observed [6][33].

石油沥青日报 | 2025-06-11 成本端支撑增强，供需矛盾有限 市场分析 1、6月10日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3483元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌28元/吨，跌幅 0.8%；持仓215950手，环比上涨11329手，成交220645手，环比下降42903手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3800—4086元/吨；山东，3500—3950元/吨；华南，3460—3500元/吨； 华东，3600—3670元/吨。 原油价格延续震荡偏强走势，沥青成本端支撑稳固，昨日山东以及华东地区沥青现货价格有所上涨，东北和华北 地区沥青现货价格小幅下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格以持稳为主，盘面则延续区间波动。就沥青自身基本面而言， 供需两弱格局延续，终端需求总体表现欠佳，进入6月份，北方地区气温适宜，部分基建项目进入施工期，但缺乏 超季节性的增长动力；而南方地区进入梅雨季节，频繁降雨天气导致道路施工受阻，抑制沥青终端消费。与此同 时，目前市场供应增量有限，整体开工率与库存均处于低位区间，叠加成本端的支撑，市场压力有限，但需求端 改善乏力依然制约了市场的上行空间。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：逢 ...