Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In June 2025, the CPI continued to recover, with the core CPI rising steadily, indicating that domestic demand is still steadily recovering. However, there are signs of a slowdown in consumption momentum. The PPI continued to decline due to structural and seasonal factors, which will drag down the profits of industrial enterprises and is not conducive to the continuous recovery of the CPI. The "anti-involution" policy may be accelerated to promote re - inflation [1][7]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Core CPI YoY Continues to Rise, and Domestic Demand Recovery Continues - In June, the CPI rose 0.1% YoY, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, slightly better than market expectations. The decline in the MoM rate narrowed. The recovery of consumer goods prices was the main driving force for the CPI to turn from decline to growth. The service CPI rose 0.5% YoY, while the consumer goods CPI fell 0.2% YoY, with the decline narrowing [8]. - Food prices fell 0.3% YoY, with the decline narrowing. Beef prices turned positive after 28 months of decline, while pork prices fell for the first time after consecutive increases. Energy prices saw a narrower decline, mainly due to rising oil prices [8]. - The core CPI rose 0.7% YoY in June, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, showing a continuous upward trend since February. The MoM growth rate was flat compared to the previous month, slightly better than the seasonal average [8]. - In June, prices of clothing, education, culture and entertainment, healthcare, and other goods and services rose YoY, with the growth rates increasing compared to the previous month. Endogenous consumption continued to recover. With the support of the "trade - in" policy, prices of household appliances and cars continued to recover, but the price of communication tools turned negative for the first time this year [9]. - The recovery of the CPI in June was driven by factors such as the rise in crude oil prices due to the Middle East situation, the improvement of consumer confidence since September 2024, and the "trade - in" policy. However, prices of some policy - supported consumer goods have shown signs of decline [9]. 2. Structural and Seasonal Factors Affect the Decline of PPI Growth - In June, the PPI fell 3.6% YoY, exceeding market expectations of a 3.2% decline and down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The MoM decline was 0.4%, the same as the previous month. Prices of the mining, processing, and raw material industries all declined, with the decline rates widening [18]. - By industry, coal mining and washing, ferrous metal mining, and ferrous metal smelting and rolling had relatively large MoM declines, while oil and gas extraction and non - ferrous metal mining had relatively large increases. The decline in coal prices was due to increased alternative energy generation in summer and sufficient coal stocks. The decline in ferrous metal prices was due to the impact of weather on construction and sufficient supply. The rise in oil prices was mainly due to the escalation of the Israeli - Palestinian conflict [23]. - Since September 2024, China's macro - economy has been generally stable, and the PPI decline rate has briefly narrowed. However, since February 2025, the continuous decline in PPI may be due to supply - side structural factors [23]. 3. Persistent Low Inflation May Accelerate the "Anti - Involution" Policy - Since the Politburo meeting in July 2024 first mentioned preventing "involution - style" competition, "anti - involution" has been mentioned in many important occasions. Given the current low levels of CPI and PPI, the urgency and practical significance of "anti - involution" are stronger, and it may become an important means to promote re - inflation [24]. - The Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission on July 1st clearly required to legally regulate the disorderly low - price competition of enterprises and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. On July 3rd, relevant departments and industry associations also took actions related to "anti - involution." Under the expectation of "anti - involution," prices of many commodities have risen. The "anti - involution" is a systematic project of supply - demand re - balance. If policy coordination is achieved, the PPI may turn positive from late 2025 to early 2026 [24][26].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic situation in China, highlighting the challenges of low inflation and the need for effective policy measures to stimulate demand and support economic recovery [4][6][41]. Economic Data Analysis - Recent economic data from May shows marginal improvements in areas such as social financing growth, service consumption, and employment, yet the capital market remains indifferent [5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June is reported at -0.1% year-on-year, indicating persistent deflationary pressures [6]. Inflation Expectations - Analysts have differing views on inflation trends for 2025, with some predicting continued low CPI due to weak external demand and potential tariff impacts from U.S. policies [11][12]. - Others argue that global inflationary pressures and domestic policy support could lead to a CPI increase of around 1% in 2025 [15]. Internal Demand Challenges - The article emphasizes the complexity of internal demand issues, with analysts noting that low inflation reflects a combination of wealth erosion, economic downturn, and weakened expectations [17]. - Key factors influencing CPI include core CPI, employment, and consumer spending, with predictions ranging from a slight recovery to continued low inflation depending on economic conditions [19][32]. Policy Responses - The article discusses the need for comprehensive policy measures to address the economic challenges, including support for vulnerable groups and improving overall income distribution [41][43]. - Analysts suggest that relying solely on short-term measures like subsidies may not be sufficient to drive sustainable consumption growth [41]. Market Outlook - The outlook for 2025 remains uncertain, with analysts divided on the potential for economic recovery and inflation resurgence, emphasizing the importance of consumer demand in achieving a stable economic environment [45][46].

以下文章来源于远川投资评论 ，作者张伟栋 远川投资评论 . 看更好的资管内容 本文来自微信公众号： 远川投资评论 ，作者：张伟栋，编辑：张婕妤，题图来自：视觉中国 股票市场对经济数据的变化一向敏感，但今年6月似乎是个例外。 其中，最谨慎的可能要属李迅雷。 在去年末发布的《聚焦最终需求——2025年中国经济展望》中，李迅雷预测，2025年物价低位运行 趋势将延续，全年CPI同比甚至将从2024年的0.3%进一步下降到-0.1%，其中的关键影响因素在于 出 口 。 虽然2024年我国的出口表现亮眼，但主要源于"以价换量"。在李迅雷看来，特朗普再次就任总统之 后，将推行重商主义政策加征关税，直接影响我国的外需。同时低价抢出口的策略也使得中国与一些 新兴市场国家产生了利益冲突，可能使中国的出口环境进一步恶化。 而出口转弱，最终会向制造业投资和消费等内需传导，进而影响国内供求格局和物价形势 [1] 。 从刚刚披露的5月经济数据来看，相比前四个月，大部分领域如社融增速、服务消费、就业数据等均 呈现出边际改善的趋势，结果却撞上了资本市场的冷眼旁观。 原因也许并不复杂：当经济发展要向消费转型已经形成一种宏观共识，持续疲软的C ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic situation in China, highlighting the mixed signals from economic data and the varying predictions regarding inflation and consumer demand for 2025. It emphasizes the importance of internal demand and the challenges in achieving a stable inflation environment. Economic Data Analysis - Recent economic data from May shows marginal improvements in areas such as social financing growth, service consumption, and employment, yet the stock market remains indifferent [2] - The persistent weakness in CPI, which recorded a year-on-year decline of -0.1% in June, reflects a broader consensus on the need for consumption-driven economic transformation [3] Inflation Predictions - Analysts have differing views on inflation trends for 2025, with Li Xunlei predicting a continued low CPI of -0.1%, influenced by external factors like export performance and potential tariffs under a new U.S. administration [6][7] - Conversely, Guo Lei forecasts a CPI increase of 1% for 2025, supported by domestic policies aimed at boosting income and consumption [10] - Zhang Yu presents a more cautious outlook, suggesting that CPI could range from 0.4% to 0.7% depending on the economic recovery trajectory [13][14] Internal Demand Challenges - The article highlights the complex nature of internal demand, with Zhang Yu attributing low inflation to a combination of wealth erosion, economic downturn, and weakened expectations [11] - Key factors affecting CPI include core CPI, which may stabilize or recover slightly due to improvements in employment and income, but overall price pressures are expected to remain [12][27] Policy Responses - The article notes that while policies have been introduced to stimulate consumption, there is a consensus among economists that more substantial measures are needed to support vulnerable groups and enhance overall consumer capacity [36][41] - Li Xunlei and Xing Ziqiang advocate for increasing residents' overall income and improving income distribution to stimulate demand [39][40] Market Outlook - The article concludes that the path to achieving inflation and economic recovery in 2025 will depend on the effectiveness of policy measures and the resilience of consumer demand in the face of ongoing economic challenges [42]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that it's not the right time to over - allocate commodities, and patience is needed. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond interest rate is expected to be in the range of 1.6 - 1.8%, and Treasury bond futures should be bought on dips. The stock index has a ceiling and a floor [2][3]. - In 2025, the US economy faces "stagflation" or "recession" risks, while China is on a long "re - inflation" path. Based on these economic judgments, there are corresponding trading opportunities and asset - allocation suggestions in the second half of 2025 [8][25][37]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Review of the First Half of 2025 - **Differentiation of Sino - US Commodities**: In the first half of 2025, US commodities first rose and then fell, while Chinese commodities were weak. Overseas, Trump's tariff policy and the trend of rising initial jobless claims and slowing new employment in the US affected commodity prices. The US had obvious inventory - replenishing imports, with imports from January to March reaching $1.2 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 23%, and retail and food service sales from January to March at $2.1 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Domestically, from March to April, the sales of commercial housing weakened, and the domestic demand was still weak. In May, China's PPI was - 3.3% and continued to decline. Exports were supported by the rush - to - export factor, but overall, under the high - interest - rate environment of the Fed, prices were under pressure [5][6]. 2. Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 2.1 The US: Risk of Economic "Soft Landing" to "Recession" - **Risk of "Stagflation" or "Recession"**: The US government's debt support for residents' income and consumption is difficult to sustain. The US government faces the pressure of reducing fiscal deficits (the fiscal deficit/GDP in 2024 - 25 was still as high as 6.8%). In April 2025, the US fiscal expenditure was $591.8 billion, and the 12 - month Rollsum was $7.09 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 11.8%; the fiscal revenue was $850.2 billion, and the 12 - month Rollsum was $5.06 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. The annual deficit in April 2025 was $2.03 trillion, accounting for 6.8% of the US GDP in Q1 2025 [8][9]. - **Economic Slowdown**: The real GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2025 was - 0.2% on a quarter - on - quarter annualized basis, indicating an obvious economic slowdown. It is expected that the real GDP growth rate in 2025 will be between 1.6% - 2.3%, depending on the Fed's interest - rate cut speed and the realization of stable tax - cut policy expectations. Trump's policies have both positive and negative impacts on the US economy [19]. - **High Inflation and Interest - Rate Expectations**: Inflation may remain above the 2% target, forcing the Fed to maintain the policy interest rate above 3.5%. It is expected that by the end of 2025, the US federal funds rate will drop to 3.75%, and the first interest - rate cut in the second half of 2025 is expected to be in October [23]. 2.2 China: A Long "Re - inflation" Road - **Difficulty in PPI Recovery**: In May 2025, China's PPI was - 3.3% year - on - year, and CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year. Under the background of de - globalization and the reconstruction of the Chinese real - estate model, the path for China's PPI to turn positive is long and difficult. The slow recovery of commercial housing sales and M1, as well as the decline in US imports, will lead to a slow recovery of China's PPI [25]. - **Challenges in Inflation Upturn**: China's inflation upturn faces challenges, including the Fed's high - interest - rate policy, the difficulty of the real - estate price recovery, and over - capacity in some industries. To get out of deflation, China can observe three groups of variables: the continuous expansion of base money and stock money, the continuous resilience of external demand exports, and the maintenance of an "active fiscal policy" [25][31][33]. - **Monetary Policy Stance**: Monetary policy will maintain a supportive stance and strengthen the amplitude of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts. It is expected that in 2025, China's policy interest rate will be cut by 30 - 40BP in two installments, and the deposit - reserve ratio will be cut by 50 - 100BP in two installments [36]. 3. Allocation Outlook for the Second Half of 2025 - **US Economic Situation and Asset Allocation**: It is expected that in the second half of 2025, the resilience of the US economy will decline, consumption and imports will fall, and private investment will be under pressure. The yield of US Treasury bonds will oscillate at a high level with a risk of decline; the US dollar will oscillate with a risk of further weakening; gold can still be bought on dips, but trading opportunities are not obvious. The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield will oscillate between 3.8% - 4.5% and is expected to decline; the US dollar is expected to oscillate between 95 - 100 and tend to decline [37][38]. - **China's Economic Situation and Asset Allocation**: The active fiscal policy will support the Chinese economy, and the currency will be further loosened. It is expected that inflation will still be under pressure in the second half of 2025. There is still an expectation of a 30 - 40BP interest - rate cut in the monetary - policy end. With the support of liquidity, the A - share market will maintain active trading, and the yield of Treasury bonds will further decline. Before the policy supports the improvement of the fundamentals, commodity prices will still be suppressed by insufficient demand. The CSI 300 index is expected to be between 3400 - 4400 points; the yield of 10 - year Chinese Treasury bonds is expected to be between 1.6 - 1.8%; commodities are expected to oscillate weakly in the second half of 2025, and attention should be paid to the market opportunities in the third quarter of 2025 [37][38][39].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese stock market and macroeconomic conditions, with a focus on the A-share market and its dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Historical Market Performance**: The A-share market has fluctuated between 2,500 and 3,500 points over the past decade without significant breakthroughs, indicating a lack of decisive upward movement despite various expert predictions [3][4][5]. 2. **Market Dynamics**: The A-share market is characterized by a greater emphasis on financing rather than investment, with companies extracting more funds from the market than they return through dividends or buybacks [3][4]. 3. **Earnings Stability**: The earnings per share (EPS) in the A-share market have remained stable over the past decade, suggesting that stock price fluctuations are primarily driven by changes in valuation influenced by market risk appetite and liquidity conditions [4][5]. 4. **Liquidity Conditions**: The future performance of the market is expected to hinge on liquidity conditions, particularly in light of external uncertainties and internal demand challenges [5][10]. 5. **Predictions for 2025**: The report made several contrarian predictions, including a significant drop in the US stock market, a strong performance from the Chinese market, and a depreciation of the US dollar alongside a surge in gold and precious metals [6][10]. 6. **Real Estate Market Challenges**: The real estate sector continues to be a drag on China's economic growth, with recent declines in sales and prices, indicating that the real estate bubble is still in the process of being deflated [10][14]. 7. **Local Government Debt**: Measures have been introduced to alleviate local government debt burdens, including increasing debt limits and allocating special bond quotas to address hidden debts [10][11]. 8. **Comparative Analysis**: The report draws comparisons between the debt management strategies of China, Japan, and the US, highlighting the importance of timely public sector intervention in managing private sector debt [17][18][19][28]. 9. **Consumer Confidence**: Consumer confidence in China remains at historically low levels, which is exacerbated by declining real estate prices and heavy debt burdens [24][29]. 10. **Future Market Outlook**: The report suggests that without significant monetary easing from the central bank, liquidity conditions are unlikely to improve fundamentally, which could lead to continued market volatility [29][36]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Geopolitical Risks**: The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between Iran and Israel, are noted as potential disruptors to global markets, but may also present buying opportunities for investors [37][38]. 2. **Market Performance Metrics**: The Chinese onshore market has shown modest returns year-to-date, indicating a stable but unremarkable performance compared to global markets [37]. 3. **Investment Strategy**: The focus for investors should be on capturing trading opportunities arising from policy expectation changes rather than relying solely on fundamental growth [37][39].

以下文章来源于CFC金属研究 ，作者王贤伟 CFC金属研究 . 本平台由金融业内人士对宏观数据、行业事件，进行专业的解读和评论，分享专业的价值观点，提出专业的投资策略，力争为普通投资者、产业人士打造 专业的投资交流平台，并无偿提供分析与研究服务。 文 | 王贤伟 来源 | CFC金属研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 摘要 铸造铝合金期货上市后主要关注点包括： 1）期货交割量级不确定性较大；2）供需数据难以追踪；3）废铝紧缺难以证实或证伪； 本 文将铸造铝合金主要研究指标整理汇总以供参考。 复盘2007年以来两类铝价，ADC12价格与A00关联程度较高，而ADC12弹性和波动率不及A00，整体表现为下跌周期中ADC12更为抗 跌，而上涨周期则由A00领涨；同时两类铝价基本呈现3年一个完整的涨跌幅周期，目前正处于2023年启动的周期末端。 我们根据铝行业上下游库存周期判断， 25年下半年则将逐步迈入主动去库+被动去库的组合，恰逢偏弱的价格交叉周期。 铸造铝合金现货市场参考的主流报价平台有三个，由低至高依次是江西保太、上海钢联（相差100-200）及上海有色（相差500- 700），因此最便宜交割品需要 ...

去年年底以来，⬀策层及官媒开始营造反内ⷑ的社会氛围。而⯆造业信贷的放 缓、部⮇过Ⱁ行业投资回落以及工业企业⮵润的温和修复似乎显示了再平衡已⮤ 见成效。然而，一家头部新能源车企于周一大幅降价促销，引发了市场ⲁ荡，同 时也重新引发了市场对于中国经济和再通胀⯥景的辩论。 对工业企业⮵润的进一步研究表明，根深蒂固的供需错配仍在⯆约中国的再通 胀。考虑⮽通过债ⱷ推ⲁ的强⯌激政策或已成为过去式，我们认为中国目⯥的再 平衡和再通胀需要伴随一些结构性的改革，ⴎ括社会福⮵的改善、债ⱷ重组、税 ⯆改革以及营造有⮵于增长的监管环境。上述改革皆有难度，因此我们认为实施 的步伐将是循序渐进的，再通胀短期内仍具挑战，而中长期内也无坦途。 #1. 工业企业利润修复主要由于销量以及降本增效，然而定价能力仍然羸弱。 我们可以将工业企业利润增速拆分为三项：售价（使用PPI来观察）、⮵润率（统 计局数据）以及销量（ Exhibit 1 ）。拆⮇后我们可以总结三点： 1.利润率受基数影响，夸大了整体利润增速的改善：去年三季度之后，工业企业⮵ 润同比增速现了明显的反弹，从去年9月份-27%的低谷一路上ⶍ⮽今年4月份 的3.3%。然而，去年三季度⮵润增 ...

全球折扣零售王者——Costco 于北京时间 5 月 30 日美股盘后，发布了截至月份的 2025 财年 3 季度财报。如往常一致，本季 Costco 的表现仍是波澜不惊的平稳， 具体来看： 1、同店增长依然稳健：Costco 本季度整体同店名义销售增速为 5.7% ，相比上季度显著放缓了 1.1pct。但实际 主要是受油价和汇率影响的拖累，剔除这些因素后 同店增速仍达 7.9%， 表现并不差。 价量驱动上， 同店客流量本季增长 5.2%，只是略有放缓。但受汇率等的拖累，平均客单价同比增速本季明显下滑到 0.4% ，是名义同店销售增长走弱的主要原 因。 2、海外地区增长并不差：加拿大和其他国际地区 3% 上下的名义增速明显跑输美国本土 6.6% 的同比。 海外看似疲软，但 实际也只是受油价和汇率的扰动。 剔除这部分因素 ，加拿大和其他国际地区的同店销售增速都在 8% 上下，和美国地区是基本一致的。 可见， Costco 实际在全球范围内的经营表现都相当稳健。 3、会员费收入：本季为$12.4 亿，比预期稍低了 0.1 亿。不过趋势上，同比增长 10.4%，是 4Q23 以来最高的。属于趋势向好，但没市场预期的 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20250512 继续围绕转债核心稀缺资产进行抢筹配置 2025 年 05 月 12 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《 4 月外贸数据和降准降息落地，债 券抢跑仍需消化》 2025-05-11 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20250505-20250509）》 2025-05-11 东吴证券研究所 1 / 21 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 上周（0505－0509）美债收益率长短端继续向上修复，期限利差维持在 大约 50bp 左右，我们认为一方面鲍威尔重审了联储对再通胀的担忧， 一方面美英之间达成贸易协议，前期我们认为广泛主要经济体将以拖待 变，目前我们认为或出现分化，部分国家将以美英协议为基准从而快速 同美达成共识，其余部分国家将不认可美英协议，并坚持在 WTO 多边 主义框架下同美对话，但无论如何 ...