证券研究报告 | 2025年06月03日 超长债周报 贸易战形势扑簌迷离，超长债成交量保持高位 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周贸易战形势扑簌迷离，债市跟随波动。另外资金面维 持宽松态势，隔夜利率再次回落至 1.4%，超长债小幅承压，全周 V 型走 势。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度小幅上升，交投相当活跃。利差 方面，上周超长债期限利差走阔，品种利差走阔。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 5 月 30 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 23BP，处于 历史偏低水平。从国内经济数据来看，4 月经济依然展现出韧性。我们 测算的 4 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.1%，较 3 月回落 0.8%，但是仍高于 全年经济增速目标值。通胀方面，4 月 CPI 为-0.1%，PPI-2.7%，通缩风 险依然明显。近期中美贸易摩擦出现阶段性缓和，投资者悲观预期有所 消散，短期焦点将回到国内二季度经济数据，我们预计随着政策托底效 应的减弱，债市收益率下行概率更大。不过当前 30 年国债期限利差依 然偏低，期限利差保护度有限。 20 年国开债：截至 5 月 30 日，20 年国开债和 20 年国债利差为 2B ...

Group 1 - Concerns over the fiscal outlook have led to a "fiscal reckoning" for U.S. Treasuries, with credit default swap (CDS) spreads rising to their highest levels in two years [1][5] - In May, U.S. Treasuries, particularly long-term bonds, experienced their first monthly decline since 2025, with yields increasing by 4 to 7 basis points on June 2 [1][3] - The rise in CDS spreads is attributed to investor worries about the U.S. government's ability to meet its debt obligations, with the 5-year CDS spread nearing 50 basis points, up from approximately 30 basis points at the beginning of the year [5][6] Group 2 - The yield curve for U.S. Treasuries has steepened, with the 10-year yield surpassing 4.47% and the 30-year yield briefly exceeding 5%, reflecting risks associated with potential trade measures from the Trump administration [3][4] - Despite the increase in long-term yields, large bond investment institutions are maintaining lower positions in Treasuries, favoring shorter maturities [3][6] - The CDS spread increase is seen as a temporary reaction by investors awaiting a new budget agreement to raise the debt ceiling, rather than an indication of an impending financial crisis or widespread default [6][7] Group 3 - The upcoming labor market reports are expected to significantly influence U.S. Treasury yields and the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory, with expectations for two rate cuts in 2025 [4] - The U.S. Treasury has reached its debt ceiling of $36.1 trillion, with limited borrowing capacity, raising concerns about the timing of when the government will exhaust its borrowing ability [5][6] - The passage of Trump's significant tax cut plan, estimated to increase U.S. debt by an additional $4 trillion, adds to the uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy and its impact on Treasury investments [6][7]

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月03日 产品结构破局，资产配置渐变 ——中国机构配置手册（2025版）之保险资管篇 行业研究 · 深度报告 非银金融·保险 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 01 负债结构优化 02 资产负债联动 证券分析师：孔祥 联系人：王京灵 021-60375452 0755-22941150 kongxiang@guosen.com.cn wangjingling@guosen.com.cn S0980523060004 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点概要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 Ø 保险资金区别于其他资管的核心在于通过资金池运作实现资产负债联动。险资资产配置需契合负债特性，核心在于实现 收益、久期与现金流匹配。具体体现在：精细化分账户管理：根据不同保险产品（如传统险、分红险、万能险、投连险 等）负债成本、久期、保证利率、流动性需求等特性，设立独立投资账户，分别设定风险收益目标和投资策略；强化久期 缺口管理：通过加大配置超长期债券、长久期非标资产、并适度利用低利率时期的债券交易进行再投资平衡，力争缩小 或维持可控的久期缺口，降低利率风险敞口；加 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of Section 899 of the "Big Beautiful Act" poses a significant threat to Wall Street, potentially leading to the largest capital tax impact in history, particularly affecting foreign investors in the U.S. market [1][2]. Tax Implications - Section 899 introduces a "progressive penalty tax" for investors from countries deemed to have "discriminatory" tax policies, starting with a 5% increase in tax rates, escalating by 5% annually, with a maximum additional burden of 20% [2]. - The scope of this tax is extensive, potentially impacting passive income, real estate investments, business profits, and even foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds that previously enjoyed tax exemptions [2]. Market Impact - The ambiguity surrounding whether financial assets will be included in the tax scope raises concerns among experts, despite current indications suggesting fixed income assets may be excluded [3]. - As of December 2024, U.S. liabilities to foreign entities are projected to reach $39.8 trillion, accounting for 134% of nominal GDP, with securities holdings comprising 83% and long-term securities at 96% [3]. Foreign Investment Dynamics - Foreign official investors hold a significantly larger share of U.S. fixed income markets compared to equities, meaning any tax policy changes could directly affect U.S. Treasury yield curves [6]. - The report indicates that foreign private investors tend to hold longer-term Treasuries, while official investors prefer shorter maturities, suggesting that rising tax costs could lead to greater selling pressure on long-term bonds [8]. Regional Effects - Europe is likely to be the biggest "victim" of these tax changes, with $3.5 trillion of the $5.39 trillion in foreign direct investment in the U.S. coming from Europe, making Eurozone countries the largest holders of U.S. fixed income and equity securities [11]. Currency and Credit Market Effects - The tax implications signal a negative outlook for the U.S. dollar, as the 4% current account deficit heavily relies on foreign capital inflows, and the new tax could deter foreign investment, leading to a weaker dollar against G10 currencies [14]. - In the corporate bond market, liquidity pressures and credit spreads may widen, with foreign investors holding about 25% of U.S. corporate debt, which could face volatility if additional tax burdens are imposed [14]. Securitized Products and Real Estate - Foreign investors show a stronger demand for agency bonds compared to securitized credit; unfavorable tax policies on non-government-backed assets could benefit GNMA mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [15]. - In commercial real estate (CRE), where foreign buyers account for 5-10% of transactions, tax changes could have a more pronounced impact on valuations compared to residential real estate [15]. Hedge Fund Risks - The definition of "applicable persons" in the tax clause could significantly affect hedge funds, as a 20% tax rate increase could eliminate arbitrage opportunities, fundamentally disrupting the business models of quantitative hedge funds reliant on U.S. markets [17]. Legislative Outlook - The likelihood of the worst-case scenario materializing from Section 899 remains uncertain, with the primary aim of the clause being to provide leverage in tax and trade negotiations [18][21]. - The Senate is seen as a potential "lifeline" to clarify the applicability of Section 899, with expectations that it may review the details, including income scope and applicable entities [22].

Core Viewpoint - June is identified as a critical transitional period for the bond market, with a focus on the downward trend of general interest rates leading to stronger bond market rates, and the increasing certainty of looser funding around the quarter-end [1][4][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since early May, the bond market has entered a transitional phase under funding constraints, with a gradual compression of spreads [1]. - The credit spread, particularly at the short end, has compressed to historical lows, while the spread between government bonds and policy bank bonds turned negative in late May [1][4]. - The spread between active and less active 10-year government bonds has narrowed significantly, indicating a clear trend of spread compression in the market [1][4]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on 10-year and 30-year non-active government bonds, including new and old special government bonds, as well as 10-year local government bonds, which offer both liquidity and static returns [1]. - For credit bonds, attention should be given to high-rated (AAA) credit bonds with a maturity of over five years that possess certain liquidity [1]. - Credit bond ETFs that are eligible for general pledged repos are also suggested for consideration [1]. Group 3: Strategic Transition - The bond market is expected to transition from a pure coupon strategy to a strategy that balances coupon and liquidity [1][11]. - The next phase of spread compression may lead to either a bear market driven by macro policy shifts or a rapid rise in bond prices if government bond rates decline sharply [11]. - The recommendation is to prepare for a shift to more liquid instruments in anticipation of the next round of interest rate declines, considering the uncertainty of funding fluctuations at the end of June [11].

Core Viewpoint - The yield spread between the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has increased, indicating a potential steepening of the yield curve, which may not yet present a buying opportunity for long-term bonds [1] Group 1: Yield Spread Analysis - The yield spread between the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose by 0.874 basis points, currently reported at +53.196 basis points [1] - The yield spread reached a peak of +54.429 basis points at 15:48 Beijing time, approaching previous highs of +58.328 basis points on October 1, 2021, and +86.817 basis points on February 24 of the same year [1] Group 2: Expert Insights - Jamie Patton, co-head of global rates at TCW, believes the current yield spread is not wide enough to justify purchasing long-term bonds [1] - Patton suggests an overweight position in 2-year and 5-year Treasury bonds, anticipating further steepening of the yield curve [1] - She emphasizes the need for a comprehensive analysis rather than simply reacting to a 5% yield on 30-year bonds, indicating that it remains relatively low compared to other parts of the curve [1]

"总体上看，5月中美关税战降温，近期美元走势偏弱，再加上国内实施更加积极的宏观政策，共同推动了这一轮人民 币升值。我们判断，短期内人民币可能还有一定升值潜力。"王青总结道。 美元指数方面，5月美元指数连续第四个月下降，最低降至99美元下方，月内下降幅度为0.2%。截至6月2日17时50 分，美元指数报98.764，日内下降0.68%，年内下滑幅度达到9%，这一下跌表现在历史上极其罕见。 北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）5月收官，月内人民币对美元汇率强势升值。其中，在岸人民币对美元汇率累计升值1%，离 岸人民币对美元汇率累计升值0.86%。6月2日，离岸人民币对美元汇率小幅回落，截至当日17时50分，离岸人民币对 美元汇率报7.21，日内贬值幅度为0.05%。 回顾5月外汇市场表现，人民币汇率三大报价全线升值。5月最后一个交易日（5月30日），在岸人民币对美元汇率收 报7.1989，日内贬值0.18%；离岸人民币对美元汇率收报7.2065，日内贬值0.24%。5月全月，在岸人民币对美元汇率累 计升值1%，离岸人民币对美元汇率累计升值0.86%。中间价方面，5月30日人民币对美元中间价报7.1848，相较4月末 报价7. ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Industry The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report Interest rate adjustments have led to a divergence in the performance of credit bonds, with the spreads of medium - and short - term high - grade credit bonds widening, while long - term credit bonds have shown strong performance. The spreads of urban investment bonds have fluctuated narrowly, with weaker platforms performing well. Most industrial bond spreads have declined, but coal bonds and private real estate bonds have seen an increase in spreads. The yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have mostly risen, and the spreads of 5 - year medium - and low - grade varieties have compressed. The excess spreads of 3 - year industrial and urban investment perpetual bonds have compressed, while the spreads of 5 - year urban investment bonds have rebounded [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Adjustments Lead to Divergence in Credit Bond Performance, with Widening Spreads of Medium - and Short - Term High - Grade Bonds This week, the yields of interest - rate bonds have slightly rebounded. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, and 5Y China Development Bank bonds have increased by 2BP, and those of 7Y and 10Y bonds have increased by 1BP. The yields of medium - and short - term high - grade credit bonds have adjusted, while most other varieties have continued to decline. Credit spreads have mostly declined, with the largest decline in 7Y varieties, and the spreads of medium - and short - term high - grade bonds have widened. Rating spreads and term spreads have mostly declined [3][6]. 3.2 Narrow Fluctuations in Urban Investment Bond Spreads, with Good Performance of Weaker Platforms This week, the spreads of urban investment bonds have fluctuated narrowly, with some differentiation among different regions. The credit spreads of externally rated AAA - level platforms have increased by 1BP, those of AA + - level platforms have remained basically flat, and those of AA - level platforms have decreased by 1BP. When classified by administrative level, the spreads of provincial - level platforms have increased by 1BP, while those of municipal and district - level platforms have remained basically flat [3][10][17]. 3.3 Most Industrial Bond Spreads Decline, while Coal Bonds and Private Real Estate Bonds See an Increase in Spreads Most industrial bond spreads have declined, but coal bonds and private real estate bonds have seen an increase in spreads. This week, the spreads of central and local state - owned real estate bonds have increased by 0 - 1BP, the spreads of mixed - ownership real estate bonds have decreased by 2BP, and the spreads of private real estate bonds have increased by 40BP. The spreads of AAA - level coal bonds have increased by 9BP, those of AA + - level bonds have remained flat, and those of AA - level coal bonds have increased by 1BP. The spreads of steel and chemical bonds at all levels have declined by 0 - 3BP [3][15]. 3.4 Yields of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds Mostly Rise, with Compressed Spreads of 5 - Year Medium - and Low - Grade Varieties This week, the yields of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds have mostly risen, and the spreads of 5 - year medium - and low - grade varieties have compressed. Specifically, the yields of 1Y AAA - and AA + commercial bank Tier 2 capital bonds have increased by 4BP, and the yields of AA - level bonds have increased by 2BP, with spreads increasing by 0 - 2BP. The yields of 3Y Tier 2 capital bonds at all levels have increased by 4 - 6BP, and the spreads have increased by 2 - 4BP. The yields of 5Y AAA - and AA + Tier 2 capital bonds have increased by 1 - 2BP, and the spreads have decreased by 0 - 1BP, while the yields of AA - level bonds have decreased by 1BP, and the spreads have compressed by 3BP [27][28]. 3.5 The Excess Spreads of 3 - Year Industrial and Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds Compress, while the Spreads of 5 - Year Urban Investment Bonds Rebound This week, the excess spreads of 3 - year industrial AAA perpetual bonds have decreased by 2.18BP to 9.53BP, at the 11.52% percentile since 2015. The excess spreads of 5 - year industrial AAA perpetual bonds have remained flat at 9.22BP, at the 10.27% percentile since 2015. The excess spreads of 3 - year urban investment AAA perpetual bonds have decreased by 1.12BP to 4.31BP, at the 0.37% percentile. The excess spreads of 5 - year urban investment AAA perpetual bonds have increased by 1.37BP to 10.30BP, at the 9.54% percentile [31]. 3.6 Explanation of the Credit Spread Database Compilation The overall market credit spreads, commercial bank Tier 2 and perpetual spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data. The historical percentiles are calculated since the beginning of 2015. The credit spreads of urban investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by Cinda Securities R & D Center, with historical percentiles also calculated since the beginning of 2015. Specific calculation methods and sample selection criteria are also provided [38].

证券代码：603790 证券简称：雅运股份 公告编号：2025-025 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ? 每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利0.12元 ? 相关日期 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ａ股 | 2025/6/6 | － | 2025/6/9 | 2025/6/9 | | ? 差异化分红送转： 否 一、 通过分配方案的股东大会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经公司2025 年 5 月 23 日的2024年年度股东大会审议通过。 二、 分配方案 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司上海分 公司（以下简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的本公司全体股东。 本次利润分配以方案实施前的公司总股本191,360,000股为基数，每股派发现金红利0.12 元（含税） ，共计派发现金红利22,963,200元。 三、 相关日期 | ...

"2025陆家嘴论坛期间，中央金融管理部门将发布若干重大金融政策。" 目前已知的消息是，论坛是6月18-19日开，潘行作为论坛今年的轮值主席，肯定参加，会作 主题演讲，外管局的一把手也会作主题演讲，正常来讲，其他两大金融管理部门的一把手， 也会出席并发表讲话。 昨天科普的两个事情， 美国国际贸易法院，以及稳定币，今天都出现了急速的反转，越热的 东西，越容易啪啪啪打脸 。 稳定币的最大概念股，昨天在香港暴涨30%的众安在线，今早一看，昨日南向资金一共买进 去7.5亿，占昨天净买入的20%左右，个股里面仅次于美团，结果今天一度啪地暴跌-15%， 目前还跌了10个点左右，把昨天上午学习完，下午追进去的资金全埋了。 知道的以为 是 众安在线 ，不知道的以为这是 众筹在线 ，新进的股民给老股民凑完买粽子的 钱之后，端午集体前往 汨罗江学习。 ...... 今晚有点事，提前聊了。 市场除了下跌，回吐了昨天利好的收益之外，也没什么特别大的新闻，唯一的大新闻，是一 则预告，上海市这边，介绍了今年 陆家嘴论坛 的情况，提到： 其实，我们可以首先 回顾一下2024年陆家嘴论坛上 ，各位负责人的讲话——当时论坛上提 到的措施或者改 ...