本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 冠通期货 每周核心策略推荐 铜 | 品种 | 交易逻辑 | 多空观点 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周沪铜先扬后抑,宏观来看,本周国际市场地缘冲突为主要矛盾,伊以冲突加剧全球经济不确定性,原油价格上涨助推全球通货膨胀速 | | | | | 度,美元指数反弹,压制了有色市场的上涨空间,周三美联储议息仍按兵不动。预计今年仍降息两次共50个基点,目前市场关注伊朗是否 | | | | | 封锁霍尔木兹海峡。若其真正封锁,将对全球经济造成冲击。供给方面,截至2025年6月20日,现货租炼带为-43.70美元/于吨,现货精炼 | | | | | 费为-4.36美分/磅。目前铜冶炼端偏紧预期暂时只反映在数据上,铜供应量依然在走强,库存端全球铜库存去化,其中套利驱使下,伦铜 | | | | | 太幅去化，美铜依然在快速赛库，国内目前银去化幅度较缓。主要系建低净货为主。需求方面，截至2025年4月，电解铜表观消费128.27万 | | | | | 吨,相比上月涨跌-8.97万吨,涨跌幅-6.54%。全球经济不确定性的 ...

Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam, while Vietnam maintains zero tariffs on U.S. goods[9] - New unilateral tariffs may range from 10% to 70%, with implementation expected around August 1[6] - The U.S. is conducting a 232 investigation into sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which began in April, indicating potential short-term tariff risks[15] Group 2: Political Developments - Trump's position within the Republican Party has strengthened following a series of political successes since June, including the signing of the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill[6] - The U.S. Supreme Court has supported Trump's executive powers, allowing him to pursue his policy agenda without significant judicial challenges[13] - The upcoming G20 finance ministers' meeting and the BRICS+ summit are critical events to monitor for international economic discussions[3] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions include the Israel-Palestine conflict and U.S.-Iran negotiations, with a focus on potential ceasefire outcomes and nuclear discussions[16] - The U.S. aims to rebalance its relations with major powers, particularly in the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which presents significant negotiation challenges[18] - The potential for a framework agreement in trade negotiations exists, but countries may shift conflicts to third parties to achieve short-term wins[12]

近期，中东紧张局势再起，引爆地区火药桶，地缘时政风险溢价急速涌入市场。当恐慌情绪与避险资本 形成的洪流迎头相撞，黄金市场的多空博弈必将进一步白热化！历史经验反复证明，乱局之下，黄金闪 耀。想要捕捉这轮由地缘冲突催生的市场良机？记得先来领取皇御贵金属的$26/手点差福利，超低成本 助您轻松入市，抢占黄金机遇的至高点！ （图源/皇御贵金属官网） 利率预期生变，黄金中长期支撑稳固 尽管美联储在上半年按下了降息暂停键，但其面临的挑战有增无减。美国政府债务率已飙升至历史警戒 水平，经济数据亦频频释放疲软信号，复苏前景蒙上阴影。市场嗅觉最为敏锐，联邦基金利率期货市场 清晰显示，投资者普遍押注美联储年内降息1-2次的概率已超过65%。一旦降息周期开启，实际利率的 下行趋势将直接削弱美元吸引力，使得黄金受益。 （图源/网络） 数据爆点密集降临，7月黄金机遇不容错过 机会往往伴随波动而生！即将到来的7月，市场将迎来一系列重磅经济数据的"三连击"，牵动市场神经 的美国非农就业报告、揭示通胀趋势的CPI、以及反映经济活力的零售销售数据。这些核心数据如同市 场的风向标与催化剂，其任何超预期的表现都可能引发市场情绪的剧烈波动，潜藏着巨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for gold prices to break through 1200 yuan per gram in the second half of the year, analyzing key factors and predictions for the market [1][18]. Current Price and Target Gap - As of July 2025, domestic gold jewelry prices range from 1000 to 1010 yuan per gram, with brands like Chow Sang Sang at 1000 yuan and Chow Tai Fook at 998 yuan [1]. - The current international gold price is 3320 USD per ounce (approximately 760 yuan per gram), indicating that a target price of 1200 yuan per gram requires a 20% increase, necessitating the international price to exceed 4500 USD per ounce [3]. Historical Comparison - The peak price for gold jewelry in April 2025 was 1082 yuan per gram (with international gold at 3500 USD per ounce) [3]. - To reach 1200 yuan, gold prices must surpass the historical peak by 11%, which is significantly higher than current market momentum [3]. Supporting Factors for Price Increase - A continued depreciation of the US dollar could stimulate short-term gold price increases if the dollar index falls below 90 (currently at 99.7) [3]. - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (potentially 100 basis points this year) could also support gold prices, although the implementation of such policies remains uncertain [3]. - Escalating geopolitical conflicts, such as renewed violence in the Middle East and increased trade tensions with the US, may drive demand for gold as a safe haven [4]. Central Bank Purchases - In 2024, global central banks purchased a net total of 1045 tons of gold, and if this trend continues at a rate of 1000 tons annually, it could provide long-term support for gold prices [5]. Core Constraints - The premium pressure on gold jewelry is significant, with processing fees exceeding 200 yuan per gram. If international prices do not rise, retail prices may struggle to surpass 1100 yuan [6]. - A strong technical resistance level exists at 3400 USD per ounce, and breaking through this requires robust fundamental support [7]. - Consumer sentiment is currently low, with many potential buyers waiting for prices to drop to around 600-700 yuan per gram [7]. Institutional Perspectives - There are differing views among institutions regarding gold price forecasts: - Bullish outlooks from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan predict prices reaching 3700 USD (approximately 1120 yuan) by year-end and potentially challenging 4000 USD (around 1200 yuan) by 2026 [9]. - Bearish views from CITIC Securities and Citigroup suggest that if risk appetite declines and the dollar strengthens, prices could fall to 2500-2700 USD (approximately 600-650 yuan) [9]. - Neutral perspectives from Nanhua Futures expect prices to remain in the 1000-1100 yuan range with increased volatility but unlikely to break previous highs [9]. Conclusion - The likelihood of gold prices breaking 1200 yuan per gram in the near term is low, with a more probable scenario being a range of 1000-1100 yuan per gram through 2025, with the target of 1200 yuan potentially delayed until 2026 [10].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $3,700 per ounce for gold by the end of 2025, driven by central bank gold purchases, economic recession risks, and weakening dollar credibility [1][3]. Group 1: Forecast Timeframe - Key timeframe for the target price is set for the end of 2025, with potential for earlier achievement if central bank purchases exceed expectations or if recession risks intensify, possibly reaching $3,810 to $3,880 [1]. - An extreme scenario predicts a mid-2026 price of $4,000 per ounce under conditions of strong central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions [2]. Group 2: Current Progress and Supporting Logic - Central banks exceeded expectations with a purchase of 106 tons in February 2025, significantly above historical averages, with emerging markets like China and India driving diversification of foreign reserves [3]. - Goldman Sachs assesses a 45% probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months, which could lead to increased inflows into gold ETFs, thereby boosting prices [3]. - Factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical instability are diminishing the attractiveness of the dollar [3]. Group 3: Market Performance Validation - Gold prices surpassed $3,500 in April 2025 but retreated to $3,278 by the end of June, before rebounding above $3,320 in early July, indicating strong market support [4]. - Central bank purchases and investment demand, such as daily sales of bank gold bars exceeding 5 tons, provide long-term support for gold prices [5]. Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - Various institutions have differing target prices for gold by the end of 2025, with Goldman Sachs at $3,700, UBS at $3,500, Citigroup at $2,500-$2,700, and Deutsche Bank at $3,400, reflecting a range of views on market dynamics [8][9]. Group 5: Recommendations for Retail Investors - Investors are advised to monitor key indicators such as monthly central bank gold purchase data, with a sustained rate above 80 tons per month significantly increasing the likelihood of reaching the $3,700 target [9]. - The Federal Reserve's policy decisions, particularly a potential rate cut in September, could act as a catalyst for gold price breakthroughs [10].

【沥青】 1-7月国内炼厂沥青累计产量同比预计增长7%。年初以来54家样本炼厂出货量累计同比增长8%，华南地区预计在7月 上句"出梅"后需求有进一步提升空间。1-5月压路机销量同比大增,Q3是沥青需求恢复的关键观测窗口期。供需 预期双增下平衡表预估去库趋势延续日库存水平偏低。BU裂解价差向上弹性放大的基调未被破坏,叠加地缘冲突缓 和后油价重回承压背景下BU裂解有修复空间。 【LPG】 7月CP大幅下调，冲突降温后国际市场增供压力再度主导市场。美国两院库存加速上升,MB价格相对承压。炼厂开 工影响下，上周国产气外放量继续走高，国内供应宽松基调强化。原油带动和政治风险溢价快速消退,关注海外出 口回升节奏,盘面震荡偏弱。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | 《八 国経期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月01日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | な☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced a sudden increase, with London spot gold rising over 1% to nearly $3340 per ounce and COMEX gold futures up 1.3% to above $3350 per ounce as of July 1 [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, gold prices surged significantly, with London spot gold increasing by 25.84%, marking the best half-year performance in nearly 18 years [4] - The highest recorded price for spot gold was over $3500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 30% [4] Group 2 - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets saw a boom in the gold and jewelry sector, with all 14 commodity gold ETFs in the A-share market rising over 23% [6] - Notable stock performances included companies like潮宏基 and 莱绅通灵, which saw their stock prices double, while others like 老铺黄金 experienced a staggering increase of 321.53% [6] Group 3 - A case study of a 75-year-old woman from Hangzhou illustrates the risks of gold investment, as she purchased gold bars at a high price only to face a decline in value shortly after [7][9] - Despite recent fluctuations, experts believe the long-term upward trend for gold prices remains intact, with potential targets reaching $3700 per ounce [10] - Factors influencing gold prices include trade negotiations, geopolitical tensions, and economic data affecting Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of geopolitical conflicts, the game in the shipping and related markets is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [1][2] - With no significant change in overall supply - demand, the market sentiment is bearish, and the market fluctuates widely. Attention should be paid to negotiation results, tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - On June 30, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2123.24 points, up 9.6% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1619.19 points, down 22.3% from the previous period [1] - On June 27, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1366.47 points, down 1.13% from the previous period; the European route was 1442.95 points, up 11.03% from the previous period; the US - West route was 1553.68 points, down 2.04% from the previous period [1] - On June 27, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1861.51 points, down 8.08 points from the previous period; the European line price was 2030 USD/TEU, up 10.63% from the previous period; the US - West route was 2578 USD/FEU, down 7.00% from the previous period [1] - On June 27, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1369.34 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; the European route was 1640.72 points, up 3.9% from the previous period; the US - West route was 1212.09 points, down 3.6% from the previous period [1] 3.2 Market and Contract Information - On June 30, the closing price of the 2508 main contract was 1761.4, with a decline of 1.92%, a trading volume of 32,700 lots, and an open interest of 39,200 lots, an increase of 168 lots from the previous day [2] - The SCFIS has been rising continuously, but the overall supply - demand has not changed significantly, and the market is bearish with wide - range fluctuations [2] 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: Without an obvious fundamental turnaround, it is recommended to try short positions on rallies. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2000 (with a profit margin of more than 200 points), and consider taking profits on short positions. Risk - takers can consider lightly trying long positions on the 2510 contract below 1300, setting stop - losses and take - profits [3] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In the context of international turmoil and large fluctuations, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [3] - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rallies, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] 3.4 Other Information - Trump said he would not extend the 90 - day tariff suspension period for most countries and regions after July 9. Once the negotiation deadline expires, trade punishment measures will take effect unless an agreement is reached [4] - The Israeli Defense Forces informed the domestic political leadership that they tend to reach an agreement with Hamas rather than occupy the Gaza Strip [4]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations influenced by geopolitical tensions, trade negotiations, and changes in U.S. monetary policy, leading to a mixed outlook for gold prices and related investment vehicles [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 1, the gold ETF fund (159937) rose by 0.47% with a transaction volume of 238 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.85% [1]. - International spot gold prices have rebounded above $3,300 per ounce, with the latest quote at $3,314.68 per ounce, marking a 0.38% increase [2]. - COMEX gold futures are quoted at $3,327 per ounce, reflecting a 0.59% increase [2]. Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Influences - The gold market has been under pressure due to easing geopolitical conflicts and rising U.S. stock markets, which have increased risk appetite among investors [3]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that trade agreements with multiple countries are expected to be completed by September 1, which may influence market sentiment [3]. - Speculation about the potential appointment of a more dovish Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump could impact monetary policy and, consequently, gold prices [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Outlook - Analysts suggest a mixed to bullish long-term outlook for gold, despite short-term technical weaknesses and market adjustments [5]. - The gold ETF fund (159937) and its linked funds offer low-cost, diversified investment opportunities in gold, aligning closely with domestic gold prices [5]. - The long-term value of gold as a hedge against economic downturns and inflation remains significant, with recommendations for investors to consider regular investments in gold ETFs [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term view is weak, with short - term decline and mid - term oscillation. The core logic is the easing of geopolitical conflicts and significant technical pressure on gold prices. Also, market pricing of the Iran - Israel cease - fire and changes in interest - rate cut expectations impact the price [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term view is strong, with both short - term and mid - term upward trends. The core logic is the improvement of market risk appetite at the macro level and the strong overseas copper premium and continuous inventory reduction at the industrial level [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the gold price bottomed out and rebounded. The market has fully priced in the short - term Iran - Israel cease - fire, leading to a market correction [3]. - **Market Factors**: The recent increase in market interest - rate cut expectations and the continuous weakening of the US dollar index provide strong support for the gold price. The probability of three interest rate cuts within the year exceeds 50% according to FedWatch Tool data [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The domestic gold price has fallen below the 60 - day moving average, and the willingness of previous short - sellers to close positions may increase. The overseas gold price is near the 60 - day moving average, with significant differences between bulls and bears. Focus on the 3300 - dollar long - short game of London gold and New York gold [3]. - **Ratio Trend**: The gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to weaken [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the copper price continued to oscillate below 80,000, with a slight decrease in the position volume and an increase in the willingness of long - sellers to close positions [5]. - **Macro Factors**: After the Iran - Israel cease - fire last week, market risk appetite improved, causing a general rise in non - ferrous metals. The market cooled down on Monday [5]. - **Industrial Factors**: The overseas LME copper premium has strengthened significantly recently, indicating a shortage of overseas electrolytic copper spot. The domestic Mysteel electrolytic copper social inventory is 123,500 tons, a reduction of 8,400 tons from last week, and the downstream replenishment willingness is strong [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: Pay attention to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [5].