投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年5月8日 贾利军 从业资格证号： F0256916 投资咨询证号: Z0000671 电话: 021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号: F03092124 投资咨询证号: Z0018827 电话: 021-80128600-8631 刘慧峰 从业资格证号: F3033924 投资咨询证号: Z0013026 电话: 021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号: F03091165 投资咨询证号: Z0019876 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号: F03089928 投资咨询证号: Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号: Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 宏观金融: 央行超预期降准和降息，美联储维持利率不变 【宏观】 海外方面，美联储按兵不动维持利率不变，以及 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Global central banks' expectations of interest rate cuts and fiscal easing, along with continuous gold purchases by multiple central banks and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, may make precious metal prices prone to rising and difficult to fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices decline [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: On May 7, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures active - contract closing price was 803.50, with a trading volume of 413,639.00 and an open interest of 127,407.00. The Shanghai spot gold (Au T + D) closing price was 792.87 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 65,320.00 and an open interest of 212,772.00. The COMEX gold futures active - contract closing price was 3372.60 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 275,912.00 and an open interest of - 2,384.00. The London gold spot price was 3392.25 dollars/ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF holding was 937.67 tons, and the iShare Gold ETF holding was 437.55 tons [1]. - **Silver**: The Shanghai silver futures active - contract closing price was 8252.00, with a trading volume of 537,686.00 and an open interest of 232,016.00. The Shanghai spot silver (Ag T + D) closing price was 8.00 yuan/kilogram, with a trading volume of 442,110.00 and an open interest of 3,542,778.00. The COMEX silver futures active - contract closing price was 33.22 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 53,799.00 and an open interest of 109,710.00. The London silver spot price was 33.23 dollars/ounce. The US iShare Silver ETF holding was 13,958.73 tons, and the Canadian PSLV Silver ETF holding was 5807.39 tons [1]. - **Price Ratios**: The ratio of Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 97.37, the ratio of New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 100.18, and the ratio of London gold spot to London silver spot was 103.19 [1]. 2. Important Information - **Macroeconomic and Policy**: The Fed paused interest rate cuts again, warning of stagflation risks and reiterating increased "uncertainty". Powell said not to rush to cut interest rates. China's foreign exchange reserves in April increased by 1.27% month - on - month, and the central bank has been increasing gold holdings for six consecutive months. The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30, and the CBO predicted that the Treasury's funds might be exhausted between August and October, which would slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. The Trump administration planned to cut the 2026 fiscal budget by 183 billion dollars. The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, and may cut interest rates 2 - 3 more times by the end of 2025. The Bank of England may cut interest rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025. The market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates around July [1]. - **Geopolitical**: If the EU's negotiation with the US fails, it is prepared to impose retaliatory tariffs on Boeing aircraft [1]. 3. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to mainly lay out long positions when prices decline. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3150 - 3250 and the resistance level around 3500 - 3700; for Shanghai gold, the support level is around 750 - 780 and the resistance level is around 850 - 900. For London silver, the support level is around 28 - 30 and the resistance level is around 35 - 36; for Shanghai silver, the support level is around 7400 - 7800/8000 and the resistance level is around 8600 - 8900 [1].

11:02 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust .Il 5G EBC黄金ETF持分报告解读 截至5月7日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为937.67吨，较前一个交易日减少0.29吨。5月7日，现货黄金大跌，盘中最低触及3360美元/盎司， 收报3364.14美元/盎司，大跌66.21美元或1.93%。值得注意的是，ETF持仓量连续第四个交易日减少。 基本面消息，据报道，中美将举行经贸高层会谈，贸易的乐观情绪，打压黄金的避险需求。5月7日，中国央行宣布降准降息，货币宽松的政策，推动了风险 资产，抑制了金价走势。 当前总持仓 937.67 吨黄金 黄金ETF总持合变化 更新时间:2025-05-( 960 950 940 930 920 910 900 890 2025-03-27 2025-04-10 2025-04-30 2025-03-11 此外，美联储最新决议出炉，连续三次暂停降息，符合市场预期，并暗示特朗普的关税政策将引发滞胀风险，重申经济不确定性增加。在会后的记者会上， 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，不急于行动，不认为应该先发制人降息应对关税冲击。美 ...

晨报 铝锭 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 8 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价向下调整。美联储将指标利率稳定在 4.25%-4.50%的区 间，但表示通胀和失业率上升的风险已经加剧，美联储判断失业率和通胀 上升的风险已经加剧，美国经济前景仍不明朗。国内央行宣布降准降息。 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：下游开工率施压 铝价偏弱调整 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "Oscillatory operation" [2][3] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "Short - term optimistic" [3] Core Viewpoints Stock Index - The Fed paused rate cuts again, warning of stagflation risks and reiterating increased "uncertainty". Powell ignored Trump, saying the economy is still good and uncertainty is extremely high, and refused to act preemptively due to tariffs. The Bank of Japan unanimously agreed to "stand pat", keeping the interest rate at 0.5%. China's Foreign Ministry responded to the China - US high - level economic and trade talks. China's financial sector introduced a package of policies to stabilize the market and expectations. A major reform plan for the public fund industry was implemented, linking the interests of investors, tying fund managers' compensation to returns, and reducing fees. With multiple positive factors, attention should be paid to the stock index trend. If there is a downward trend to fill the gap, it may fill the gap before rebounding; if the overall situation is stable and favorable, the stock index may oscillate strongly [1] Treasury Bond - Currently, as the policy rate drives down the short - term money market interest rate center, the certainty of the short - to medium - term part of the curve is relatively high. After the curve steepens again, it in turn provides "protection" for the long - term end. The bond market as a whole may still be in a situation with a relatively high probability of success but limited odds. Before the fundamental situation shows a significant improvement, there is no need to be overly cautious [2] Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.51%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.66%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 0.01%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 0.12% [4] Treasury Bond - The 10 - year main contract fell 0.19%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.08%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.62%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.01% [6] Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market oscillates strongly [5] Treasury Bond - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract oscillates strongly [7] Strategy Suggestions Stock Index - Oscillatory operation [2] Treasury Bond - Short - term optimistic [3] Data Table | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/05/07 | CSI 300 continuous main contract | 3785.00 | 0.51 | 56105 | 141994 | | 2025/05/07 | SSE 50 continuous main contract | 2646.40 | 0.66 | 29460 | 46351 | | 2025/05/07 | CSI 500 continuous main contract | 5620.20 | 0.01 | 54572 | 100287 | | 2025/05/07 | CSI 1000 continuous main contract | 5955.20 | 0.12 | 158085 | 174521 | | 2025/05/07 | 10 - year treasury bond continuous main contract | 108.85 | - 0.19 | 85388 | 180727 | | 2025/05/07 | 5 - year treasury bond continuous main contract | 106.00 | - 0.08 | 62281 | 151057 | | 2025/05/07 | 30 - year treasury bond continuous main contract | 120.14 | - 0.62 | 115667 | 93433 | | 2025/05/07 | 2 - year treasury bond continuous main contract | 102.31 | - 0.01 | 40388 | 89974 | [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to move in a volatile range, while treasury bonds are expected to rise steadily [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation, iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile, and coking coal and coke are expected to move in a volatile range [1][7][9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range, aluminum is not recommended for short - chasing, nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling on rallies, tin is recommended for range trading, gold is recommended for building positions on dips after a full price correction, and silver is recommended for range trading [1][11][17]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are all expected to move in a volatile range, while soda ash is recommended for observation [1][19][25]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be weakly volatile, apples are expected to move in a volatile range, and PTA is expected to be weakly volatile [1][27][28]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are expected to be weakly volatile, eggs are expected to be weakly trending, corn is expected to be strongly volatile, soybean meal is expected to decline in a volatile manner, and oils are expected to be weakly volatile [1][29][35]. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products in different industries. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro - economic conditions. For example, in the black building materials industry, the supply and demand situation of iron ore and the impact of policies on steel production are considered; in the non - ferrous metals industry, factors like global economic conditions, supply and demand fundamentals, and trade policies are analyzed. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Affected by factors such as the Fed's monetary policy, geopolitical events, and domestic policies, the index futures are expected to move in a volatile range. If there is a downward trend to fill the gap, it may rebound after filling the gap; if the overall situation is stable and positive, it may be strongly volatile [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the "double - cut" policy has been implemented, the bond market investors are not fully satisfied. The short - end bonds are stronger, while the long - end bonds have a profit - taking market. The bond market is still in a situation with a relatively high winning rate but limited odds [5][6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price is expected to move in a volatile range. The static valuation is low, but the policy and market expectations are weak. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production - restriction policies [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is seasonally increasing, and the demand is also increasing, but there is an expectation of a peak and decline. Considering the high iron - water output and international trade frictions, the 09 contract is expected to be weakly volatile [7][8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is expected to continue to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of downstream iron - water production, changes in imported coal prices, and policy expectations. The coke market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the recovery of finished - product demand, the balance of coking - steel profits, and policy - related production - restriction disturbances [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The supply - side pressure is increasing, and the demand may be restricted by price increases and trade policies. The price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern after the holiday, and cautious trading within a range is recommended [11]. - **Aluminum**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, but the current decline is too fast, so short - chasing is not recommended [12]. - **Nickel**: The supply is in an oversupply situation, and it is expected to be weakly volatile under the influence of cost and demand factors [13][14]. - **Tin**: The supply of raw materials is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The price is expected to be volatile, and range trading is recommended [15]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as the Fed's monetary policy, economic data, and trade policies, the prices are expected to be in an adjustment state, and range trading is recommended [17]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The demand is weak, and the supply is excessive. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [19]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand increment is limited. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to delivery volume, inventory, and export [20]. - **Rubber**: The demand is weak, and the supply is sufficient. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium term, and attention should be paid to policies, tariffs, and weather [21][22]. - **Urea**: The supply is high, and the demand is gradually released. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and range operation is recommended [22]. - **Methanol**: The supply is reduced, and the demand is stable. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and range operation is recommended [24]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to demand, policies, and tariffs [25]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is still high, and the downstream is not optimistic. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and short - term observation is recommended [25]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: The global supply and demand are loose, and the downstream consumption is weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [27]. - **Apples**: The current inventory is low, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, but attention should be paid to macro - risks [27]. - **PTA**: The cost is collapsing, and the terminal export orders are poor. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to the 4200 support level [28]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply is increasing and postponed, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and short - selling on rallies is recommended after taking profits [29][30]. - **Eggs**: The demand is falling after the holiday, and the supply is accumulating. The 06 contract is expected to be volatile at a low level, and the 08 and 09 contracts are considered bearish [31][32]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply is tight, and the long - term supply and demand are tightening. It is recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to substitutes [32]. - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term supply is increasing, and the price is expected to decline. The long - term cost is increasing, and the price is expected to be strong. Short - selling on rallies in the short term and long - buying on dips in the long term are recommended [33][34]. - **Oils**: The short - term is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to support levels. Bean and rapeseed oils are expected to be stronger, and attention should be paid to the spread expansion of bean - palm and rapeseed - palm oil contracts [35][40].

Summary of Key Points from the Meeting Minutes Industry Overview - The meeting primarily discusses the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its implications for the economy, particularly focusing on inflation and employment trends. Core Insights and Arguments - The theme of the meeting is "data-dependent decision-making" [2] - There is an increasing risk of stagflation as both unemployment and inflation rates are rising [3] - Inflation effects from tariffs are expected to be more persistent, largely depending on the magnitude and duration of the tariffs [3] - The perception of tariff-related inflation has shifted; the Fed no longer views it as "transitory" [3] - Economic growth uncertainty has further increased, indicating a cautious outlook [3] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The overall tone of the meeting was described as "dull," suggesting a lack of immediate action or urgency in policy changes [1][2]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20250508 关税迷雾深，联储降息更难择机——2025 年 5 月 FOMC 会议点评 ◼ 策略启示：市场降息预期过于乐观，美债利率存在进一步上行的风险。 FOMC 声明公布后，市场反应较为平淡；而发布会结束后，美元指数上 涨，降息预期有所回落。截至最新联邦基金期货显示市场预期美联储 7 月降息概率为 82%，全年降息 3.12 次/78bps。对美联储而言，当下货币 政策决策难点既在方向上（滞胀风险让美联储陷入两难，"降也不是， 不降也不是"），也在置信区间上（关税政策与其影响均充满不确定性， 加大对经济前景判断难度）。向前看，除非短期爆发尖锐的流动性或衰 退风险，否则当下通胀更大的上行风险与经济更大的不确定性均意味着 美联储更谨慎的货币政策，目前市场定价的全年 3 次降息仍过于乐观， 美债利率存在上行风险。 ◼ 风险提示：特朗普政策落地节奏与预期相差较大；美联储维持高利率水 平时间过长，引发金融系统流动性危机；通胀下行速率不及预期。 2025 年 05 月 08 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the overall industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Views - Gold: Slight progress in China-US negotiations [2] - Silver: Oscillate and decline [2] - Copper: Continuous decline in inventory limits price decline [2] - Aluminum: Price under pressure [2] - Alumina: Continue to bottom out [2] - Zinc: Operate under pressure [2] - Lead: Weak supply and demand, range-bound oscillation [2] - Nickel: The upside and downside space converges, and nickel prices return to narrow-range oscillation [2] - Stainless steel: Spot prices decline to repair the basis, and there is still support below the futures price [2] - Tin: Prices weakened during the holiday [2] - Industrial silicon: Weak demand, weak futures price [2] - Polysilicon: Futures price hits a new low since listing [2] - Lithium carbonate: The cost center continues to move down, and the inventory accumulation pattern restricts the rebound [2] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Shanghai Gold 2506 closed at 801.04 with a daily increase of 0.79%, and the night - session closed at 802.68 with a 0.07% increase. Comex Gold 2506 closed at 3400.32 with a 2.46% increase. The trend strength is 0. China's central bank has been increasing gold holdings for six consecutive months [5][8][9]. - **Silver**: Shanghai Silver 2506 closed at 8252 with a 0.21% increase, and the night - session closed at 8146 with a - 1.15% decrease. Comex Silver 2506 closed at 32.610 with a - 2.47% decrease. The trend strength is - 1 [5][8]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Shanghai Copper's main contract closed at 77,790 with a 0.24% increase, and the night - session closed at 77450 with a - 0.44% decrease. LME Copper 3M closed at 9,406 with a 1.74% increase. The inventory continued to decline, and the trend strength is 0. The global refined copper market is expected to have a supply surplus in 2025 and 2026 [10][12]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 19465, down 320 from the previous day. LME Aluminum 3M closed at 2381, down 47 from the previous day. The price is under pressure, and the trend strength is - 1. Some alumina enterprises plan to cut production, and the trend strength of alumina is 0 [13][15]. - **Zinc**: Shanghai Zinc's main contract closed at 22210 with a - 0.65% decrease. LME Zinc 3M closed at 2625.5 with a 0.40% increase. The trend strength is - 1 [16][17]. - **Lead**: Shanghai Lead's main contract closed at 16700 with a 0.00% change. LME Lead 3M closed at 1917.5 with a - 0.72% decrease. The supply and demand are weak, and the trend strength is 0 [19][20]. - **Nickel**: Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 124,450, down 180 from the previous day. The upside and downside space converges, and the trend strength is 0. Some Indonesian nickel - iron projects are resuming production, and the resource tax on nickel products has been adjusted [22][23]. - **Stainless steel**: The main contract closed at 12,710, down 25 from the previous day. Spot prices decline to repair the basis, and the trend strength is 0 [22]. - **Tin**: Shanghai Tin's main contract closed at 261,230 with a 0.10% increase, and the night - session closed at 259,430 with a - 0.94% decrease. LME Tin 3M closed at 31,645 with a - 1.10% decrease. Prices weakened during the holiday, and the trend strength is - 1 [25][26]. Other Metals - **Industrial silicon**: The Si2506 contract closed at 8,290, down 35 from the previous day. The demand is weak, and the trend strength is - 1 [30]. - **Polysilicon**: The PS2506 contract closed at 35,520, down 890 from the previous day. The futures price hits a new low since listing, and the trend strength is - 1 [30]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The 2507 contract closed at 64,160, down 1,100 from the previous day. The cost center continues to move down, and the inventory accumulation pattern restricts the rebound. The trend strength is 0 [33].

美股反弹，英伟达低位拉升近5%，谷歌一度跌超9%，Arm盘后跌超11%；黄金一度跌超2%。 美联储再次暂停降息，示警滞胀风险，重申"不确定性"增加。鲍威尔无视特朗普，重申不急降 息，称经济仍好、不确定性极高，拒绝因关税抢先行动。 芯片股拉升，媒体称特朗普拟废除拜登任内AI芯片限制。 中国外交部回应中美经贸高层会谈：这次会谈是应美方请求举行的。 10+8+3！中国金融部门出台一揽子政策稳市场稳预期。 公募业重大改革方案落地，绑定投资者利益，基金经理薪酬与收益挂钩、费率调降。 中国4月外汇储备规模环比上升1.27%，央行连续六个月增持黄金。 若对美谈判失败，欧盟准备反制，将对波音飞机征收关税。 苹果酝酿Safari大改版，瞄准AI搜索，谷歌一度跌超9%、地位面临严峻挑战。 诺和诺德Q1销售额同比增长19%不及预期，下调全年销售指引。 提醒：英国央行周四将公布利率决议，预期降息25个基点。 ...