摘要今日周三(2月11日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价为1121.48元/克，较前一交易日上涨5.02元，涨幅 0.46%，日内呈现上扬走势。当日开盘价报1116.33元/克，盘中最高触及1124.51元/克，最低下探至 1116.08元/克。 昨日公布的数据显示，美国12月消费者支出意外陷入停滞，凸显出民众对生活成本的担忧，也为周三即 将重磅出炉的1月延迟就业报告埋下伏笔。若借贷成本进一步下调，黄金作为无息资产，将在低利率环 境中迎来利好。 1月下旬，该贵金属曾一路冲高刷新历史纪录，而后大幅回调，如今金价已收复近半失地，本周始终围 绕每盎司5000美元震荡运行。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 从技术面来看，日线周期，H4周期的上涨都没有走完，都需要一波刺激才能走出有效的上涨，特别是 H4周期的表现，k线收在布林中轨之上，等待突破5100后布林上轨开口，到时候就有明显的单边技术表 现，所以，今天依旧做低多的布局，等待延续空间。今天的行情主要集中在美盘非农数据后了，亚欧盘 的机会可能5000之上，前面的布局保持不变，亚欧盘破位5100，美盘就可以放心持有再看数据影响，上 方逐步看5200，5350。 今日周三(2月1 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 2 月 11 日） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 软商品日报 二、图表分析 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周二，ICE 美棉下降 0.03%，报收 61.59 分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨 0.27%，报 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收 14655 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 432 手至 70 万手。国际市场方面，宏观层 面仍有扰动，美国 12 月零售数据公布，低于市场预期，3 月降息预期小幅升温。 | | | | 国内市场方面，郑棉主力合约冲高回落，持仓小幅下降。消息面，昨日中国棉花 | | | 棉花 | 信息网发布意向种植面积调研报告，2026 年我国棉花一项种植面积同比下降 1.7%， | 震荡 | | | 全国棉花产量预计同比下降 5.8%。整体来看，我们认为节前郑棉上行驱动有限。 | | | | 随着春节假期临近，纺织企业将陆续开始放假，纺企棉花库存可用天数已经创下 | | | | 近五年来同期新高，补库需求的时间与空间均有限，市场成交转淡。综合来看， | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a slight pullback after two consecutive days of gains, closing at $5025.21 per ounce, down $32.68, with a decline of nearly 0.7%, while still maintaining above the psychological level of $5000 [1][2] Group 1: Economic Data and Market Sentiment - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data for February, which is expected to provide insights into the labor market's resilience or potential softening, influencing Federal Reserve policy direction [1][2] - The consensus forecast for January's non-farm payrolls is an addition of 70,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.4% [2] - Recent retail sales data for December showed unexpected stagnation, raising concerns about consumer spending and economic growth, thereby strengthening expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices are fluctuating within the range of $5000 to $5100 per ounce, with traders awaiting new catalysts to break through this range [3] - If gold prices surpass $5100 per ounce, there is potential for further increases towards $5200 per ounce, and possibly reaching the January 30 high of $5451 per ounce, and approaching the historical high near $5600 per ounce [3] - Conversely, if gold prices fall below $5000 per ounce, they may test the 20-day simple moving average at $4910 per ounce, with further declines potentially targeting $4800 per ounce and the February 2 low of $4402 per ounce [3] Group 3: Market Influences - Support for gold prices is attributed to a weak dollar, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of interest rate cuts, alongside the psychological support at the $5000 level [2] - The dollar index remained stable at 96.87, indicating a lack of significant movement in the currency market [2] - There has been a notable influx of investment into gold ETFs from Indian investors, surpassing flows into stock funds for the first time [2]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of interest rate cuts is driving a strong performance in the bond market, with significant capital inflow into the 10-year government bond ETF (511260) [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Recent market sentiment indicates strong expectations for interest rate cuts after the holiday, with signs of weak economic recovery and relatively ample liquidity supporting early demand growth [1] - The potential for the U.S. to resume interest rate cuts creates favorable external conditions for domestic rate reductions [1] - If rate cut expectations are realized before the "Two Sessions," the yield on 10-year bonds may break below 1.8% [1] Group 2: Fund Performance - The 10-year government bond ETF (511260) tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-year government bond index, selecting bonds with a remaining maturity of 7 to 10 years [1] - Historical performance shows that since its inception, the ETF has consistently achieved new net asset value highs, with a one-year return of 4.17%, a three-year return of 14.04%, a five-year return of 23.39%, and a cumulative return of 35.77% since inception [1] - The ETF has maintained positive annual returns over seven complete natural years from 2018 to 2024, positioning it as a potential asset allocation tool across market cycles [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic macro - policy is centered on coordinated efforts to support economic development. The monetary policy coordinates with the fiscal policy through three paths, and there is a high probability of a 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut in the first quarter, releasing about 1 trillion in liquidity, and 1 - 2 policy rate cuts of 10 - 20BP throughout the year. The capital market's structural opportunities are dominated by policy coordination, industrial upgrading, and resource security. [2] - The RMB exchange rate is affected by factors such as the strength of the yen and poor US retail data. Seasonal settlement demand before the Spring Festival supports the RMB, but the endogenous appreciation power may decline after the festival. [4] - The stock index is expected to be volatile before the festival due to the approaching holiday and the upcoming release of economic data. It is recommended to reduce positions before the festival. [6] - The bond market is cautious before the festival. The T2606 contract can be moderately long - positioned on dips, and the March contract can be exited on rallies. [8] - The container shipping European line futures show a structural differentiation. The near - month contracts are under pressure, while the far - month peak - season contracts remain relatively resilient. [11] - For new energy products, the downstream inventory - building before the Spring Festival for lithium carbonate is basically completed, and it is recommended to sell volatility. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are under pressure due to high inventory. [13][14] - For non - ferrous metals, copper's volatility is expected to increase after the festival, and it is recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options when the volatility drops to 20%. Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are expected to be volatile. Zinc, nickel - stainless steel, tin, and lead also have their own market characteristics and corresponding investment suggestions. [17][19][21][22] - For oilseeds and fats, the USDA report has limited adjustments to soybeans. The external soybean market is strong in the short - term, and the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different market trends. The oil market is expected to be volatile before the festival. [25][27] - For energy and oil and gas, fuel oil has weak upward momentum, low - sulfur fuel oil follows the cost and fluctuates at a high level, and asphalt has weak upward momentum and is affected by cost and demand. [29][30][32] - For precious metals, platinum and palladium have a bullish long - term outlook, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Gold and silver are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the long - term. [36][39] - For chemicals, pulp and offset paper futures are expected to be volatile. LPG is affected by geopolitical factors. PX - PTA is affected by supply and demand and is expected to be volatile. MEG - bottle chips have limited fundamental drivers. Methanol is recommended to be out of the market during the holiday. Plastic PP, pure benzene - styrene, and rubber also have their own market characteristics and investment suggestions. [42][44][46][50][53][55][57][60] - For black commodities, steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to be volatile and weak. Iron ore has weak supply and demand before the festival and is recommended to be observed. Coking coal and coke are recommended to be lightly - positioned during the holiday. Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be volatile and weak. [73][76][79][81] - For agricultural and soft commodities, the pig price is at the bottom, and the cotton market is affected by the USDA report and is expected to be volatile. The sugar price is affected by the international market and has limited upward space. The egg price is expected to be volatile and weak. The apple price is affected by the end of stocking and has limited downward space. The jujube price is expected to be volatile at a low level. The log price needs to verify the post - holiday demand. [84][86][89][91][98][100][101] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: The RMB exchange rate has risen to 6.90. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The CME plans to launch individual stock futures this summer. The US private - sector employment has increased, and the retail sales in December were flat. The Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. [1] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB appreciated against the US dollar. Seasonal settlement demand supports the RMB before the festival, but the endogenous appreciation power may decline after the festival. It is recommended that export enterprises lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and import enterprises adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.91 level. [3][4] - **Stock Index**: The stock index was volatile, and the trading volume shrank before the festival. It is expected to be volatile before the festival, and it is recommended to reduce positions to avoid overseas market risks during the holiday. [5][6] - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market was cautious before the festival. The T2606 contract can be moderately long - positioned on dips, and the March contract can be exited on rallies. [6][8] - **Container Shipping European Line**: The futures price of the container shipping European line declined. The market's confidence in the shipping companies' price increase in March was frustrated. The near - month contracts are under pressure, while the far - month peak - season contracts remain relatively resilient. [8][9][11] Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The downstream inventory - building before the Spring Festival is basically completed, and the price is stable. The volatility is expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to sell volatility. [13][14] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are under pressure due to high inventory. The industry is focused on de - stocking. [14][15] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price's volatility has significantly narrowed. It is expected that the post - festival volatility will be higher than before the festival. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options when the volatility drops to 20%. [17][19] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum have little change, and it is expected to be volatile. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum. [19][20] - **Zinc**: The zinc price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to conduct a small - scale internal - external reverse hedging when the energy cost is high. [21] - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The nickel - stainless steel market is volatile and strong. The supply and demand are weak, and the market is affected by the Indonesian policy. [22] - **Tin**: The tin price is expected to be volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to the US employment and CPI data this week. [23] - **Lead**: The lead price is expected to be weakly volatile. [23][24] Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: The USDA report has limited adjustments to soybeans. The external soybean market is strong in the short - term, and the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different market trends. It is recommended to pay attention to reverse hedging opportunities. [25][26] - **Fats**: The external oil market is volatile, and the domestic oil market is expected to be volatile before the festival. It is recommended to wait and see. [27] Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil price has weak upward momentum. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand is weak. [29] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil price follows the cost and fluctuates at a high level. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is stable. [30][31] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price has weak upward momentum. The demand is at a low point before the festival, and the price is expected to follow the cost of crude oil. [32][33] Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The platinum and palladium prices are volatile and weak. The long - term bullish foundation remains, and it is recommended to buy on dips. [35][37] - **Gold and Silver**: The gold and silver prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the long - term. It is recommended to reduce or clear positions during the holiday. [39][40] Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp and offset paper futures are expected to be volatile. The fundamentals are relatively bearish, and it is recommended to conduct range trading. [42][43] - **LPG**: The LPG price is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is neutral - low, and the demand is at a low level. [44][45] - **PTA - PX**: The PX - PTA market is affected by supply and demand. The PX supply is expected to be tight in the second quarter, and the PTA processing fee is expected to be difficult to maintain at a high level. [46][49] - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The MEG - bottle chips market has limited fundamental drivers. The demand is seasonally weak, and the supply is expected to improve. [50][52] - **Methanol**: The methanol price is affected by geopolitical and non - ferrous metal factors. It is recommended to be out of the market during the holiday. [53][54] - **Plastic PP**: The plastic PP market is expected to be range - bound. The supply and demand are both weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to the post - festival inventory accumulation and marginal device profit. [55][56] - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The pure benzene - styrene market is expected to be range - bound. The supply of pure benzene is increasing, and the demand is flat. The supply of styrene is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. [57][59] - **Rubber**: The natural rubber is strong, and the synthetic rubber is under pressure. The fundamentals have both support and pressure, and it is recommended to be lightly - positioned before the long holiday. [60][63][65] - **Urea**: The urea price is expected to be short - term adjusted. It is recommended to close long positions and be out of the market during the holiday. [66][67] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda ash is expected to be weakly volatile, and the glass is expected to be volatile. The supply of soda ash is high, and the demand for glass is weak. [68][69] - **Propylene**: The propylene price is supported by fundamentals. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing, but the supply - demand gap is still tight. [70][71] Black Commodities - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The supply is relatively strong, and the demand is weak. The price may test the lower limit of the shock range. [73][74][75] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market has weak supply and demand before the festival. The supply is seasonally decreasing, and the demand is affected by the steel mill's production. It is recommended to observe. [76][78] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke prices are recommended to be lightly - positioned during the holiday. The supply of coking coal is seasonally decreasing, and the demand is gradually recovering. [79][80] - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices are expected to be volatile and weak. The cost provides support, but the downstream inventory accumulation and high inventory of ferromanganese put pressure on the price. [81][82] Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Pig**: The pig price is at the bottom, and it is recommended to buy on the rebound for the 05 contract. [84][85] - **Cotton**: The USDA report is bearish for cotton. The domestic cotton market is expected to be volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to the demand for US cotton. [86][88] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is weak, and the domestic sugar price has limited upward space. [89][90] - **Egg**: The egg price is expected to be volatile and weak. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak before the festival. [91][92] - **Apple**: The apple price is affected by the end of stocking, and the downward space is limited due to the delivery contradiction. [98][99] - **Jujube**: The jujube price is expected to be volatile at a low level. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak before the festival. [100] - **Log**: The log price needs to verify the post - holiday demand. The import cost has increased, but the liquidity is insufficient. It is recommended to observe. [101][102]

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai fluctuated around 101,730 yuan, with a continuous decrease in open interest, while London copper retreated to the lower end of 13,100 USD [4][17] - The macroeconomic outlook is neutral, with the upcoming US non-farm payroll report causing cautious market sentiment, compounded by the approaching Chinese New Year leading to reduced capital enthusiasm [5][17] - On the fundamental side, copper warehouse receipts increased by 8,811 tons to 165,900 tons, and LME copper inventories rose by 4,800 tons to 189,100 tons, indicating a lack of upward momentum for copper prices in the short term [6][17] - The expected trading range for Shanghai copper futures is between 99,800 and 102,500 yuan per ton, with strategies suggesting to manage positions carefully before the holiday and consider long positions at lower prices [6][17] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The spot transactions for pure nickel are sluggish, with a decline in intermediate product ratios weakening the cost support for nickel sulfate, and downstream transactions are also quiet as the holiday approaches [18] - Demand for Indonesian nickel ore remains strong, but domestic procurement is hindered by negative feedback within the industry chain [18] - The trading range for nickel futures is suggested to be between 130,000 and 145,000 yuan per ton, while stainless steel is expected to trade between 13,000 and 14,500 yuan per ton [18] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Overnight aluminum futures prices slightly retreated, while domestic alumina spot prices showed a small increase [20] - A northern alumina production enterprise has temporarily suspended part of its roasting and leaching capacity, potentially affecting 2 million tons of capacity, but this reduction is not expected to significantly alter the current oversupply situation [20] - The expected trading range for alumina futures is between 2,600 and 2,950 yuan per ton, with a recommendation to sell on rebounds [20] Group 4: Zinc Market - Shanghai zinc showed a strong fluctuation overnight, with macroeconomic indicators such as poor US retail data raising expectations for interest rate cuts, although market sentiment remains cautious [22] - The processing fees for zinc are expected to see a slight increase in February, while smelters are reducing production ahead of the holiday [22] - The expected trading range for Shanghai zinc futures is between 24,000 and 25,000 yuan per ton, with a recommendation to remain observant [22] Group 5: Lead Market - Shanghai lead showed strong fluctuations overnight, with tight supply of lead concentrate and reduced production from smelters ahead of the holiday [23] - The overall supply and demand situation remains weak, with increasing inventory levels as downstream purchasing slows down [23] - The expected trading range for Shanghai lead futures is between 16,500 and 17,500 yuan per ton, with a recommendation for range trading [23] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced slight declines due to hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials, which suppressed rate cut expectations [25] - Despite the pressure from the Fed's stance, signals of a weakening US economy and geopolitical tensions provide some support for precious metal prices [25] - The expected trading ranges for precious metals are: gold between 1,080 and 1,160 yuan per gram, silver between 19,000 and 22,000 yuan per kilogram, platinum between 520 and 570 yuan per gram, and palladium between 410 and 460 yuan per gram [25]

Group 1: PX Industry - The PX industry in China has seen a load increase of 0.3 percentage points to 89.5%, while the Asian industry load increased by 0.8 percentage points to 82.4%, indicating a stable supply outlook [4][20] - Demand for PX is expected to be suppressed due to numerous planned maintenance activities in downstream PTA facilities, leading to a shift towards a loose supply-demand balance in February and March [4][20] - The Brent crude oil price has seen a slight increase due to geopolitical risks, particularly concerns over potential disruptions in oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz [4][20] Group 2: PTA Industry - The PTA industry load has increased by 1.0 percentage points to 77.6%, but remains below historical levels, with supply expected to stay low due to maintenance plans exceeding last year's levels [5][21] - The demand side is weakening as terminal operations in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are entering a pre-holiday mode, with operating rates expected to drop to annual lows [5][21] - The PTA price is expected to fluctuate, with a potential buying opportunity in the support range of 5000-5100 [5][21] Group 3: EG Industry - The ethylene glycol (EG) industry load has increased by 1.7 percentage points to 76.1%, but the market is facing a decline in import volumes due to maintenance in North American and Middle Eastern facilities [7][23] - The current price levels are not sufficient to trigger large-scale production cuts, and the market is expected to face significant inventory pressure in February [7][23] - A potential buying opportunity may arise when prices reach the support range of 3650-3750 [7][23] Group 4: PF Industry - The direct-spun polyester short fiber load has decreased by 4.8 percentage points to 91.2%, while the demand remains weak as downstream yarn enterprises begin to shut down for the holiday [8][24] - The PF price is expected to fluctuate, with a potential buying opportunity in the support range of 6400-6500 [8][24] Group 5: PR Industry - The bottle-grade PET industry load remains stable at 66.1%, with ongoing production cuts leading to a tightening supply and strengthening basis [11][27] - The demand is limited due to the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, with expectations for limited production recovery in February [11][27] - The PR price is expected to fluctuate, with a potential buying opportunity in the support range of 6000-6100 [11][27] Group 6: Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash futures have seen a slight decline, with the market sentiment weakening due to increased supply and slight demand drop [12][28] - Recent production levels remain high, contributing to supply pressure, while downstream demand has slightly decreased [12][28] - The soda ash price is expected to remain weak and fluctuate around the 1160-1190 range [12][28] Group 7: Glass Industry - The glass industry has experienced a slight decline in futures prices, with supply pressures easing but demand remaining weak [30] - Recent production levels have decreased, and inventory has slightly increased, indicating a need for further market adjustments [30] - The glass price is expected to fluctuate as supply decreases and production lines undergo maintenance [30] Group 8: Polyolefins Industry - Polyolefins have shown wide fluctuations, with LLDPE and PP contracts experiencing slight increases [31] - The market is facing high supply levels, but demand is transitioning into a seasonal lull [31] - The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 6600-7100 for L2605 and 6500-6900 for PP2605 [31]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and a slight decline, influenced by mixed economic signals from the U.S. and comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate cuts [1][5]. Price Movements - Gold opened at $5058.44 per ounce, fluctuated to a high of $5078.39, and closed at $5025.33, marking a daily decline of $33.11 or 0.65% [3][5]. - The trading range for the day was $91.11, indicating significant volatility [3]. Market Expectations - The market is anticipating the U.S. non-farm payroll data for January, with expectations leaning towards a figure higher than the previous value, which could negatively impact gold prices [5]. - Despite potential negative impacts from employment data, recent lower ADP and jobless claims data suggest that non-farm payrolls may come in below expectations, which could support gold prices [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis indicates that gold prices are maintaining a bullish outlook, having rebounded after touching support levels, suggesting a continuation of the new bull market [7]. - Weekly analysis shows that gold has returned above the 5-10 day moving averages, indicating a potential for further strength in the market [9]. - Daily charts reveal that while the upward momentum is weakening, gold remains above key support levels, indicating that bullish sentiment still prevails [9]. Support and Resistance Levels - For gold, key support levels are identified at $4970 and $4870, while resistance levels are at $5100 and $5170 [9]. - For silver, support is noted at $79.15 and $78.55, with resistance at $84.00 and $86.70 [10].

Group 1 - The global market experienced a silent decline, with the dollar, gold, silver, and U.S. stock markets all falling, and Bitcoin dropping below $70,000 [2] - The decline was characterized by a significant drop in volatility, particularly in the silver market, indicating a lack of market activity and a collective retreat without panic [2][3] - The current market situation is seen as a prelude to either an emotional acceleration in one direction or an external event that could release the pent-up volatility [4] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is anticipated to be a potential trigger for market movement, with recent comments from White House trade advisor Navarro suggesting a need to lower expectations for monthly job numbers [5] - There is a contrasting narrative from Federal Reserve officials, with some indicating a prolonged period of stable interest rates, which may create confusion in market expectations [5] - Both the White House and the Federal Reserve seem to aim at preventing the market from reacting too quickly, thereby dispersing "certainty expectations" [5]

Group 1 - The bond market has recently shown signs of structural recovery, with the 10-year government bond yield falling below the critical level of 1.8%, attracting market attention [1] - Multiple macro-financial variables have positively changed, supporting the recovery of the bond market, including a significant drop in short-term liquidity rates and stable insurance fund allocations [2] - The bond market's overall performance has remained stable despite fluctuations in other asset classes, indicating a return to its safe-haven asset characteristics [3] Group 2 - There is a growing divergence in opinions regarding the future downward potential of bond yields, with some institutions believing that current yield levels have already priced in rate cut expectations [4] - The support for bond yields has weakened as they approach the 1.8% mark, with the market's focus shifting to whether policy rates will be adjusted downwards [5] - Despite the upcoming holiday and potential market uncertainties, there remains a demand for holding bonds, although caution is advised due to the volatility and supply pressures expected post-holiday [6]