现货黄金首次突破4800美元/盎司并触及4835.28美元新高，带动国内金饰零售价格快速上调，周大福、老凤祥等足金普遍逼近1500元/克，部分门店单日上调 逾40元并出现"抢购"，黄金股与上海金ETF资金净流入显著。金价上行由地缘风险、央行持续购金、去美元化与降息预期共振推动，高位波动与回撤风险亦 在累积，消费者需重视渠道价差与回收折价。 一、金价创历史新高，零售端一天一换价签 现货黄金上破4800美元/盎司，盘中最高至4835.28美元，国际价格急涨迅速传导至国内零售端，多家金店集中调价。 三、资金与股市同步升温 金价上行带动相关资产走强，A股与港股黄金板块多只个股大幅上涨，部分标的盘中创阶段新高，资金面也给出佐证：截至1月21日，上海金ETF整体出现明 显净流入，广发上海金ETF近四日净流入约18.54亿元，富国、建信等产品分别吸金8.06亿元、3.02亿元，四日合计净流入约32.90亿元。 与实物零售的热度相对应，投资者通过ETF等工具加仓，成为推动行情的重要增量资金来源之一。 四、央行购金与"去美元化"共同发力 推动本轮黄金上行的核心因素来自多线共振： 地缘政治不确定性抬升避险需求：贸易摩擦、地区局势 ...

1月23日，美股三大指数收盘集体上涨，道指涨0.63%，纳指涨0.91%，标普500指数涨0.55%。 美国当天公布的一系列宏观数据整体偏强。地缘政治担忧消散，叠加美国经济数据强劲，提振风险偏好。美股主要股指连续第二个交易日上涨，完全收复 本周早些时候的失地。降息预期减弱下，短期美债承压。2年期美债收益率上行2.5个基点，10年期收益率则持平于昨日尾盘。美元下挫0.5%，逼近98关 口。 美股大型科技股普涨，万得美国科技七巨头指数上涨1.47%。个股方面，微软、亚马逊涨超1%，Meta收涨5.7%，创7月31日以来最大单日涨幅；甲骨文涨 超2%，AMD涨超1%。 特斯拉涨超4%，据智通财经，全球首富、特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克最新表示，特斯拉可能会在明年年底前开始向公众销售其人形机器人"Optimus"（擎天 柱）。当地时间周四（1月22日），马斯克在瑞士达沃斯举行的世界经济论坛年会上发表演讲时表示，特斯拉已经在工厂中使用部分擎天柱执行一些简单 任务。 英特尔盘后大跌近10%，报49.14美元。英特尔第四季度营收136.7亿美元，同比减少4.1%，市场预估134.3亿美元；第四季度调整后每股收益0.15美元，上 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 新能源&有色组 免责声明： 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保 证。本报 告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布当日的观点和判断。在不同时期，本公司可能会 发出与本报告所载意 见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状 态。本公司对本报告所含信息可 在不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 投资者应当自行关注相应的更新或 修改。 本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者并不能 依靠本报告以取代 行使独立判断。对投资者依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均 不承担任何法律责任。 本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发 他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊 发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为 "华泰期货研究院"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意 的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责任的权利。 所有本报告中使用的商标 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK inflation rate has risen for the first time in five months, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increasing to 3.4% in December 2025, up from 3.2% in November, driven primarily by higher tobacco taxes and rising airfare prices. This increase is expected to be temporary as the government plans measures to alleviate price pressures in the spring [1][4]. Inflation Data Summary - The CPI increase in December 2025 marks the first rise since July 2025, with the increase attributed mainly to a 3% rise in tobacco prices due to delayed tax adjustments and a significant 28.6% rebound in airfare prices, which exceeded the previous month's decline and the year-on-year increase of 16.2% [8]. - Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation also saw a slight increase, rising to 4.5% year-on-year from 4.2%, driven by higher prices for bread and cereals [8]. - Rent and various entertainment and cultural expenses have exerted downward pressure on overall inflation, with prices for items like games and camping gear showing declines [8]. Economic Outlook - The Bank of England anticipates that inflation will approach its 2% target by spring, aided by measures in the upcoming budget that are expected to reduce price growth by about 0.5 percentage points [4]. - Despite the December inflation uptick, it is not expected to cause concern for the Bank of England, as the increase is seen as temporary and not driven by domestic price pressures [10]. - The central bank is closely monitoring labor market dynamics, with indications of a slowdown in wage growth and a stable unemployment rate of 5.1% [11]. Market Reactions - Following the inflation data release, the British pound experienced a slight decline but stabilized around 1.3440 USD, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut this year remaining largely unchanged [4]. - Analysts predict that the next rate cut by the Bank of England will likely be the last in the current cycle, potentially occurring in the spring [10].

Group 1 - Gold prices reached a historic high of $4,748.71 per ounce, nearing the $5,000 mark, with a lack of technical resistance making the price's peak unpredictable [1] - The current market is concerned about economic slowdown, with escalating trade wars potentially impacting global growth, which may indirectly lead to lower U.S. interest rates [3] - Lower interest rates enhance the attractiveness of gold, potentially driving demand and further increasing gold prices [3] Group 2 - Central banks worldwide have been increasing their gold reserves, reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar, which provides long-term support for gold prices [3] - Geopolitical events, such as the situation in Venezuela and Iran, have led to significant price increases in gold, highlighting its role as a safe-haven asset during times of uncertainty [3] - The timing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts remains uncertain, but expectations of loose monetary policy continue to support gold demand [3] Group 3 - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to rule on a case related to the independence of the Federal Reserve, which could impact market confidence in the Fed's decision-making [4] - A ruling in favor of Trump could weaken the dollar, which typically supports higher gold prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a range-bound trading pattern against the US dollar (USD), influenced by commodity price fluctuations and changing market expectations regarding the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Performance - As of January 20, the AUD/USD exchange rate is at 0.6698, showing a slight decline of 0.16% from the previous trading day, with fluctuations between 0.6685 and 0.6702 [1]. - The AUD has been under pressure since reaching a high of 0.68 on January 7, currently trapped in a consolidation range of 0.6650 to 0.6750 [1]. - The recent price action reflects a balance of bullish and bearish forces, with the AUD showing signs of hesitation [1]. Group 2: Commodity Price Influence - The AUD's performance is significantly influenced by the divergent trends in commodity prices, particularly iron ore and copper [1]. - Iron ore prices remain above $130 per ton, supported by temporary demand from Chinese infrastructure projects, but are expected to decline by 4% by 2026 due to a sluggish real estate market in China [1]. - Conversely, copper prices are projected to rise by 1% by 2026, driven by demand from renewable energy technologies and AI infrastructure, providing some support for the AUD [1]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - Market expectations regarding RBA policy have shifted from a focus on rate hikes to anticipations of early rate cuts, influenced by recent inflation data [2]. - The probability of a rate hike in February has decreased from 36% to 22% following a lower-than-expected CPI increase of 3.4% year-on-year [2]. - Some institutions are betting on a rate cut cycle, with JPMorgan predicting potential cuts as early as mid-2026 if core inflation falls below 3% [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The short-term outlook for the AUD/USD shows increasing downward pressure, with technical indicators suggesting a bearish trend [2]. - Key resistance levels are identified at 0.6745 and 0.6768, while support levels are at 0.6665 and 0.6650, with a potential test of the 0.6610-0.6595 range if the 0.6650 support is breached [2]. Group 5: Institutional Perspectives - There is a notable divergence in institutional views on the AUD's trajectory, with some predicting short-term volatility and others maintaining a bullish outlook for the medium term [3]. - JPMorgan forecasts a trading range of 0.66-0.68 for the AUD in the short term, while Goldman Sachs is more optimistic, projecting a rise to 0.69 by the third quarter [3]. - The overall outlook for 2026 suggests a strengthening AUD, with a projected average exchange rate of 0.69, although falling iron ore prices may limit appreciation [3]. Group 6: Risk Factors - Key risk factors that could disrupt the current trading range include upcoming inflation data from the RBA, developments in China's real estate policies, and fluctuations in the USD index [3]. - Monitoring the 0.6650 support level is crucial for assessing the potential for further short-term adjustments in the AUD [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation due to the reduced possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The short - term trend of treasury bond futures is mainly oscillatory consolidation as the short - term urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is low and the monetary policy focuses on structural measures [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, with a view of oscillatory consolidation, and the core logic is the reduced possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The treasury bond futures oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. The 2025 GDP growth rate was 5.0%, meeting the annual target, but the Q4 GDP growth and social consumer retail growth slowed down, indicating strong macro - economic resilience but concerns on the demand side [5]. - The future monetary and credit environment is expected to be loose, and there are still expectations for an interest rate cut in the future under the Fed's move towards a loose cycle. However, the short - term urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut is low, and the monetary policy focuses on structural measures, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bond futures [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a volatile and upward - trending pattern. Shanghai Gold's main contract rose 1.54%, Shanghai Silver's main contract rose 2.75%, Platinum's main contract fell 0.48%, and Palladium's main contract rose 0.64% [1]. - In the short - term, trade - war - related safe - haven demand has subsided, while geopolitical risks have increased. The weakening US employment and moderate inflation still support expectations of interest - rate cuts [1]. - Trump's threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries controlling Greenland has led to considerations of retaliation by EU countries, increasing geopolitical risks [1]. - The US CPI increase in December met expectations, but household food and rent expenditures increased. US employment growth almost stalled in December, and the unemployment rate decline alleviated concerns about the deterioration of the labor market. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week unexpectedly decreased, and the labor market is in a stagnant state. The Fed cut interest rates in December with significant differences, hinting at a pause in action and only one potential rate cut next year. Powell stated that the Fed's interest - rate policy is in a good position to handle future economic trends. Currently, the market expects the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in January 2026 to remain around 95%, and the next rate cut may occur in June. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly [1]. - Silver is supported by tight supply. The demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen - energy industry is expected to be strong. Palladium still has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will show a volatile and upward - trending pattern in the short - term, high - level oscillations in the medium - term, and a step - by - step upward trend in the long - term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - Price: Comex gold active contract closed at $4,601.10 per ounce, down $19.40 (- 0.42%) from the previous day and up $82.70 (1.83%) from the previous week. London gold was at $4,611.05 per ounce, up $0.20 (0.00%) from the previous day and up $117.20 (2.61%) from the previous week. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 1,051.80 yuan per gram, up 19.48 yuan (1.89%) from the previous day and up 25.52 yuan (2.49%) from the previous week [2]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 12,292 lots. SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.15 tons (- 0.33%) [2]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. - Price: Comex silver active contract closed at $89.95 per ounce, down $2.27 (- 2.46%) from the previous day and up $10.16 (12.73%) from the previous week. London silver was at $90.80 per ounce, down $0.47 (- 0.51%) from the previous day and up $12.66 (16.20%) from the previous week. Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 23,189 yuan per kilogram, up 706 yuan (3.14%) from the previous day and up 2,244 yuan (10.71%) from the previous week [4]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds decreased by 2,613 lots. iShare silver ETF holdings decreased by 274.89 tons (- 1.68%) [4]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - Price: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2,272.90 per ounce, down $47.20 (- 2.03%) from the previous day and up $341.40 (17.68%) from the previous week. London platinum was at $2,208 per ounce, unchanged from the previous day and up $302 (15.84%) from the previous week. Platinum's main contract on the GZEX closed at 686.95 yuan per gram, up 29.30 yuan (4.46%) from the previous day and up 144.35 yuan (26.60%) from the previous week [7]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds remained unchanged [7]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [10]. - Price: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1,821 per ounce, down $143 (- 7.28%) from the previous day and up $96 (5.57%) from the previous week. London palladium was at $1,837 per ounce, up $194 (10.56%) from the previous day and up $194 (11.81%) from the previous week. Palladium's main contract on the GZEX closed at 529.05 yuan per gram, down 49.40 yuan (- 8.54%) from the previous day and up 52.45 yuan (11.01%) from the previous week [10]. - Other data: The net long position of CFTC managed funds remained unchanged [10]. Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Federal funds target rate upper limit is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points; discount rate is 3.75%, down 0.25 percentage points; reserve balance rate (IORB) is 3.65%, down 0.25 percentage points [11]. - The Fed's total assets are 6,632.72 billion US dollars, up 8.162 billion US dollars (0.00%) [11]. - The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.50%, up 0.03 (1.21%) [11]. - The US dollar index is 99.37, up 0.02 (0.02%) [11]. - Other economic data such as inflation, employment, real estate, consumption, and trade are also presented in detail in the report [11][13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of precious metals is in consolidation, while the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. The core logic of the market remains intact, with geopolitical turmoil and central bank gold - buying supporting gold prices, and strong industrial demand and supply shortages supporting silver prices. [2][8] Summary by Related Content Precious Metals Price Trends - Last week, gold prices rose to $4,600 per ounce, and silver prices reached a high of $92 per ounce and closed near the high of $90 per ounce. [3] Geopolitical Factors - Trump suspended the military action against Iran, leading to a slight cooling of short - term risk - aversion sentiment. However, the future situation remains uncertain. [3] US Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 198,000, lower than market expectations, indicating the resilience of the labor market. The confidence of US homebuilders unexpectedly declined in January, and the market condition index dropped 2 points to 37. US manufacturing output increased by 0.2% in December, and industrial output unexpectedly grew in December with the previous month's value revised upwards. [5] Fed - related Factors - Trump's unwillingness to nominate Hassett as the Federal Reserve Chairman has led to a decrease in the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts, a rebound in the US dollar, and a decline in precious metals and other metal prices. There are many uncertainties in the appointment of the new Fed Chairman, and if the new chairman does not implement aggressive interest - rate cuts, the market's original expectations may change. [7]

国际黄金和白银价格19日均创历史新高。伦敦现货黄金价格一度涨破每盎司4690美元，现货白银价格一 度突破每盎司94美元。 上周，美股三大股指均录得跌幅，道指累计下跌0.29%，标普500指数下跌0.38%，纳指下跌0.66%。当 周，美国大型银行率先公布财报，拉开了财报季的帷幕。 本周，全球金融市场将迎来一系列关键事件与数据发布。1月22日，美国将公布11月PCE物价指数，该 数据被视为"美联储最青睐的通胀指标"，在12月CPI数据引发争议后，其表现将成为评估通胀真实趋势 的重要依据——若显示通胀仍具粘性，市场降息预期将迎来修正。 与此同时，世界经济论坛年会于1月19日至23日在瑞士达沃斯举行。美国总统特朗普、英伟达CEO黄仁 勋等多国政要与科技领袖将出席，其中特朗普预计于21日发表演讲，其政策主张备受关注。值得留意的 是，美国财长贝森特此前曾暗示，美联储主席的继任人选或于论坛期间前后敲定。 另一焦点落在1月23日的日本央行利率决议上。同日，日本首相计划解散众议院并宣布提前大选，货币 与政治局势的双重变动可能为亚洲市场增添不确定性。 尽管周一美股将因马丁·路德·金纪念日休市，但随着财报季逐步展开，市场注意力将 ...