Macro News - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that the job market suggests the Fed should continue to lower interest rates, with current rates being 50 to 100 basis points above neutral levels. He does not believe inflation will accelerate again [1] - U.S. President Trump announced that he will soon declare the next Federal Reserve Chair, who will support low interest rates. Wage growth is significantly outpacing inflation, and tax cuts will show effects next year [1] - U.S. retail sales for October remained flat month-over-month, with an estimate of 0.1% and a previous value of 0.2% [1] Institutional Perspectives - The recently released U.S. CPI and core CPI data for November 2025 were 2.7% and 2.6%, respectively, both significantly below market expectations. This inflation report confirms the ongoing easing of price pressures, reinforcing market expectations for the Fed to maintain or even increase the pace of rate cuts in future policy meetings [1] - The theoretical support for non-interest-bearing precious metal assets is strong due to macro policy. However, market trading is influenced by the gap between expectations and reality. Since the Fed signaled a shift in policy at the end of 2023, gold and silver prices have seen substantial increases, particularly gold reaching a historical high of $4,300 per ounce [1] - Despite favorable data, the marginal uplifting effect on prices has significantly weakened. A delicate balance of bullish and bearish factors is forming at this high level. On one hand, solid rate cut expectations limit the potential for significant declines; on the other hand, the lack of new unexpected positive news makes it difficult to push prices higher. The market may enter a phase of high-level consolidation, using time to create space, digesting profits, reshaping consensus, and awaiting the next clear macro data or policy signal to guide direction [1]

Group 1 - The core focus is on the divergence in interest rate expectations between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, impacting GBP/USD exchange rate movements [1][2] - The market is pricing in a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England this month, with expectations of a total cut of 61 basis points by the end of 2026 [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts three rate cuts by the Bank of England between February and June next year, bringing the terminal rate down to 3% [1] Group 2 - The UK’s November CPI showed a year-on-year decline of 3.2%, providing room for rate cuts, but high unemployment and slowing GDP growth weaken support for the GBP [2] - The autumn budget provided a fiscal buffer of £22 billion, alleviating short-term debt concerns, but long-term growth expectations remain under pressure [2] - Technically, GBP/USD is consolidating in the 1.3310-1.3380 range, with potential movements depending on breaking key support or resistance levels [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: BR Rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil [1] - **Neutral (Oscillation)**: Bonds, Agricultural Products, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium), Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Soybeans, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Benzene - Naphtha, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak trend, but the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks [1] - The market sentiment is volatile, and there are opportunities to go long at low levels for some products [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Short - term weak operation, long - term upward potential. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period [1] - **Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: High - level wide - range oscillation due to limited industrial drive and fluctuating macro sentiment [1] - **Alumina**: Weak domestic fundamentals, short - term price rebound but limited upward drive [1] - **Zinc**: Fundamentals improved, cost center shifted up, but price is under pressure. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - **Nickel**: After a sharp decline, there is a demand for position - reduction repair. Short - term trading is recommended, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading is recommended, waiting for opportunities to sell on rallies [1] - **Tin**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities during corrections [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the cooling of the US CPI in November, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish due to increased production in the northwest, reduced production in the southwest, and decreased production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, marginal improvement in terminal installation in the fourth quarter, and strong price - holding and low - delivery willingness of large enterprises [1] - **Lithium**: In the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles, with strong energy - storage demand, increased production on the supply side, and the potential to break through previous highs [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Roll over and take profits on cash - and - carry positions. Valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon**: Prices are under pressure due to weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Supply and demand provide support, valuation is low, but short - term price fluctuations are strong [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a decline, there are signs of stabilization. Pay attention to winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises this week [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term short - selling is recommended due to continuous negative high - frequency data and high pressure on the origin [1] - **Soybeans**: Pay attention to the negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to short the 05 contract as the near - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be exhausted [1] - **Cotton**: The market is currently supported but lacks a driving force. Pay attention to relevant policies and market conditions in the future [1] - **Sugar**: There is a consensus on short - selling, but there is strong cost support below. Pay attention to changes in the capital side [1] - **Wheat and Corn**: The short - term decline is limited by farmers' price - holding sentiment and downstream stocking demand before the Spring Festival [1] - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1] - **Logs**: The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly as it approaches the delivery month [1] - **Live Pigs**: Production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Affected by OPEC+ production - suspension, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports [1] - **Bitumen**: Follows crude oil in the short term, with high profit and possible falsification of the 14th - Five - Year Plan's rush - demand [1] - **BR Rubber**: Bullish due to improved cost - side support, increased sales, and high operating rates [1] - **PTA and Short - Fiber**: The PTA device operates at a high load, and short - fiber prices follow costs closely [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices decline due to inventory accumulation and weakening cost support [1] - **Benzene - Naphtha**: There is slight cost - side support, but overall production economy is negative, and inventory is high [1] - **Urea, Propylene, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: Prices oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost changes, and reduced anti - involution sentiment [1] - **LPG**: The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and prices oscillate after a decline. Pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1] Other - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was less than expected, and the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose [1]

周四公布的数据显示，美国核心消费者价格指数(CPI)同比涨幅降至2021年初以来最低水平，这进一步 强化了市场对降息的预期。对于不产生利息的贵金属而言，借贷成本下降无疑是一大利好因素。 不过，上月才结束的创纪录六周政府停摆，使这份最新通胀报告的参考价值大打折扣。美联储上周完成 年内第三次连续降息后，对未来货币宽松节奏的表态始终模棱两可。交易员目前预计，美联储在明年1 月降息的概率约为25%，而美国总统特朗普则呼吁在明年大幅下调利率。 地缘政治紧张局势同样提升了黄金的避险吸引力。本周，委内瑞拉局势持续升级，特朗普政府下令对所 有受制裁油轮实施封锁，同时加大在该地区的军事部署，向委内瑞拉政府施压，进一步支撑金价走高。 贵金属板块今年迎来暴涨行情，黄金、白银均有望创下1979年以来最佳年度表现。在各大央行持续大举 购金，以及黄金ETF资金流入的双重支撑下，白银价格年内涨幅已超一倍，黄金涨幅也达到约三分之 二。 数据显示，现货黄金价格徘徊在每盎司4325美元左右，周涨幅达0.6%，有望实现连续第二周上涨，黄 金曾在10月触及每盎司4381美元的历史高点。白银价格报每盎司64.99美元，接近本周三创下的每盎司 66.8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weak non - farm employment and inflation data in the US have boosted the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold, with the reference operating range of the main Shanghai gold contract being 940 - 1002 yuan/gram. For silver, due to the significant increase in the early stage during the Hassert nomination process, it is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and pay attention to the risk of short - term sharp fluctuations. The reference operating range of the main Shanghai silver contract is 13918 - 16000 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes Information - Shanghai gold rose 0.02% to 980.20 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.42% to 15228.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4363.90 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 65.45 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.12%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.44 [2] - The inflation data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday was significantly lower than expected, which boosted the market's pricing of the Fed's subsequent loose monetary policy and supported the prices of gold and silver. The year - on - year CPI in the US in November was 2.7%, significantly lower than the expected 3.1%, and the year - on - year core CPI was 2.6%, significantly lower than the expected 3%. The housing rent, which accounts for the highest proportion, showed a significant decline. The year - on - year CPI of out - of - home accommodation was - 4.1%, significantly lower than - 0.1% in September, which also caused the year - on - year CPI of housing to fall from 3.5% in September to 3%. The housing rent CPI accounts for 35% of the overall CPI, which is an important reason for the significant decline in this inflation data [2] - The US labor market showed weakness. The number of newly added non - farm employment in the US in November was 64,000, higher than the expected 50,000, but the newly added non - farm employment data in October recorded a decline of 105,000 [3] - With the weakening of both employment and inflation data in the US, the current CME interest rate observer shows that the market's probability expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in January next year is 26.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by March is 46.8% [3] Key Data Summary of Gold and Silver - For gold, the closing price of the active COMEX contract decreased by 0.17% to 4363.90 US dollars/ounce; the trading volume increased by 11.14% to 228,600 lots; the position volume decreased by 3.34% to 418,500 lots; the inventory increased by 0.22% to 1122 tons. The closing price of LBMA gold increased by 0.41% to 4342.10 US dollars/ounce. The closing price of the active Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) contract increased by 0.08% to 980.50 yuan/gram; the trading volume decreased by 9.26% to 318,400 lots; the position volume increased by 1.15% to 349,800 lots; the inventory decreased by 0.01% to 91.72 tons; the settled funds increased by 1.23% to 54.873 billion yuan. The closing price of AuT + D increased by 0.18% to 974.68 yuan/gram; the trading volume decreased by 14.24% to 42.67 tons; the position volume increased by 0.92% to 219.11 tons [5] - For silver, the closing price of the active COMEX contract decreased by 1.49% to 65.45 US dollars/ounce; the position volume increased by 4.35% to 150,800 lots; the inventory increased by 0.05% to 14095 tons. The closing price of LBMA silver increased by 4.71% to 65.95 US dollars/ounce. The closing price of the active SHFE contract increased by 0.06% to 15,521.00 yuan/kilogram; the trading volume decreased by 4.76% to 2,736,200 lots; the position volume decreased by 1.94% to 783,300 lots; the inventory increased by 0.03% to 912.16 tons; the settled funds decreased by 1.88% to 32.824 billion yuan. The closing price of AgT + D increased by 0.05% to 15,463.00 yuan/kilogram; the trading volume decreased by 31.79% to 900.98 tons; the position volume decreased by 3.71% to 3622.722 tons [5] Price Difference Information - For gold, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was - 5.30 yuan/gram or - 23.40 US dollars/ounce, and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 1.02 yuan/gram or 4.50 US dollars/ounce [50] - For silver, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was 817.72 yuan/kilogram or 3.62 US dollars/ounce [50]

金融期货早评 宏观：美国通胀超预期放缓 【市场资讯】1）吴清出席中国资本市场学会学术委员会成立会议并召开资本市场"十五五" 规划专家座谈会。2）特朗普：下一任美联储主席必须是"超级鸽派"，将很快公布人选。特 朗普称赞沃勒和鲍曼。3）美国通胀超预期放缓，11 月核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.6%，创 2021 年 以来最低。美联储主席最热人选哈塞特：CPI 报告好得令人震惊，美联储有很大空间可以 降息。然而，经济学家怀疑政府关门导致数据失真，有人指明显出错。4）美国上周首申人 数回落至 22.4 万人，扭转此前激增趋势。5）10 月日本、英国增持美债超百亿美元，中国 持仓下降，加拿大大降。6）欧央行连续第四次按兵不动，重申通胀将在中期回归 2%目标， 未释放明确宽松指引。拉加德暗示欧央行不急行动：政策处于有利位置，未预设利率路径， 任何选项都应考虑。报道：欧央行官员们表示，降息周期很有可能结束了。7）英国央行 "鹰派"降息 25 个基点，5 比 4 惊险过关，称进一步判断宽松将更艰难。8）德国史无前例， 上调明年发债规模至 5120 亿欧元，为基建和国防输血。 【核心逻辑】海外方面，美联储 12 月议息会议如期降 ...

纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.97%，热门中概股多数上涨。小鹏汽车涨幅近3%，BOSS直聘大涨5.22%。 黄金价格高位震荡，伦敦金现货价格微跌至4330美元附近，伦敦银现货价格回落至65美元上方。 市场再度聚焦美联储后续政策路径，通胀放缓强化了降息预期。若政策信号趋于宽松，美股等风险资产 有望获支撑，据芝商所美联储观察工具数据，1月降息的概率从24.4%升至27.7%。 【相关ETF】 美股三大指数集体收涨，道指上涨0.14%，纳指涨幅达1.38%，标普500指数上扬0.79%。科技股表现强 劲，美光科技因财报超预期股价大涨超10%，特斯拉涨超3%，英伟达、微软涨幅均超1%。美国11月 CPI同比涨幅放缓至2.7%，提振市场信心。 美股核心宽基：标普ETF(159655) 跟踪金价表现：黄金ETF(518850) 全球科技龙头：纳斯达克ETF(513300) ...

Group 1: Overall Investment Outlook - The copper market is expected to maintain a long - position approach with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December, considering the structural supply - demand gap in 2026 and loose overseas liquidity [1] - The aluminum market is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term, but demand may be weak at the beginning of 2026 and then tighten with demand growth [2] - The zinc market's price may not fall deeply due to potential supply reduction at the end of the year. Short - term unilateral trading is advised to be on the sidelines, while attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities and 01 - 03 calendar spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5] - The nickel market has a weak short - term fundamental situation, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be monitored due to ongoing policy support in Indonesia [8] - The stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be considered because of potential policy support in Indonesia [11] - The lead market is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan/ton next week, and risks associated with low warehouse receipts should be noted [15] - The tin market shows signs of weakening in the short term, but it can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026. Attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections [18] - The industrial silicon market is expected to have balanced supply and demand in December, with prices fluctuating with costs. In the long term, prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [21] - The lithium carbonate market has a short - term situation of strong supply and demand. The upside potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, or stronger holding intentions [23] Group 2: Copper - Copper prices reached a new high this week and then declined on Friday night. The 2026 supply - demand gap remains, and inventory is unevenly distributed globally [1] - In China, consumption has slowed down due to high prices, and a slight inventory build - up is expected until the Spring Festival. The monthly spread and import profit window are still suppressed [1] - Overseas liquidity remains loose, and the copper price should be bought on dips, with a December price range of $10,800 - $12,000 [1] Group 3: Aluminum - The aluminum market was affected by interest - rate cut expectations, and terminal demand was lower than expected, causing two significant price corrections this week [2] - In the short term, the apparent demand for aluminum ingots and products is still good, but demand may be weak at the beginning of 2026 [2] Group 4: Zinc - Zinc prices rose this week, and the LME zinc 0 - 3M premium declined from $163 to $90.6 [5] - Supply - side TC for domestic and imported zinc concentrates is declining rapidly, and domestic mine supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. Multiple smelters will conduct maintenance in December, with an expected output decline of 15,000 - 18,000 tons [5] - Demand is seasonally weak domestically, while in overseas markets, European demand is average and US zinc imports have increased recently. The domestic social inventory is decreasing, and the spot is in short supply [5] Group 5: Nickel - The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly this week, demand was weak, and inventories continued to build up both at home and abroad [8] - There are ongoing disruptions in the Indonesian nickel ore market, and the policy side has a motivation to support prices. Short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be monitored [8] Group 6: Stainless Steel - The supply of stainless steel remains at a high level, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high [11] - The Indonesian policy side has a motivation to support prices, and short - selling opportunities on price rallies should be considered [11] Group 7: Lead - Lead prices declined slightly this week. The supply of primary lead is high, and the supply of concentrates is tight. The supply of recycled lead has increased, and demand is expected to weaken [14][15] - The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, but the battery factory's high - level operation is not enough to build up inventory. The lead price has returned to the 17,000 - yuan range [15] - The lead price is expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan/ton next week, and risks associated with low warehouse receipts should be noted [15] Group 8: Tin - Tin prices rose rapidly this week due to macro - sentiment and capital allocation [18] - The supply - side processing fee for tin ore remains low, and overseas production recovery is slow. However, high prices are stimulating inventory exports [18] - Demand is mainly supported by rigid needs, and downstream order - taking willingness has weakened. Inventories have increased both at home and abroad [18] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - The supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be balanced in December, and prices will fluctuate with costs [21] - In the long term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and prices will oscillate at the cycle bottom [21] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market oscillated strongly this week. The supply of raw materials is tight, and upstream inventories are being reduced [23] - Downstream demand was active at the beginning of the week but weakened after the price rebound. The short - term supply and demand are both strong [23] - The upside potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, or stronger holding intentions [23]

Group 1: Economic Data - The U.S. November CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the market expectation of 3.1% [3] - The core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, also below the expected 3%, marking the lowest level since March 2021 [3] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13 were reported at 224,000, slightly below expectations, indicating relative stability in the labor market [3] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 65.88 points (0.14%) to 47,951.85, the S&P 500 up by 53.33 points (0.79%) to 6,774.76, and the Nasdaq Composite up by 313.04 points (1.38%) to 23,006.36 [1] - Micron Technology's stock surged by 10.2% after the company provided a quarterly profit guidance nearly double analysts' expectations, driven by strong demand related to artificial intelligence [2] - Trump Media & Technology Group's stock skyrocketed by 41% following the announcement of a stock merger with TAE Technologies, valuing the deal at over $6 billion [2] Group 3: Sector Performance - The technology sector was a major driver of market performance, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising by 2.6% [2] - Non-essential consumer goods sector showed strong performance, with Starbucks up by 4.9% and Lululemon up by 3.5% [2] - Chinese concept stocks generally performed well, with notable increases in shares of XPeng Motors (up 2.82%), Futu Holdings (up 2.19%), and Tencent Holdings ADR (up 1.41%) [2]

来源：滚动播报 加拿大帝国商业银行资本市场经济学家Andrew Grantham表示，最新的美国CPI数据支持该行本周早些 时候对美联储政策预测的调整。在本周稍早的非农就业数据公布后，加拿大帝国商业银行已在其2026年 展望中增加了降息预期，目前预计将在第一和第二季度各降息25个基点。 ...