Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (Bullish)**: None - **Sell (Bearish)**: None - **Neutral**: None - **One Star (Slightly Bullish/Bearish)**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Live Hogs, Eggs [1] - **Three Stars**: None Core Views - The soybean market is influenced by policy, trade negotiations, and weather, with short - term focus on policy orientation and long - term supply concerns [2][3] - The palm oil and soybean oil markets are affected by biodiesel policies, and a "crushing for oil" pattern has emerged [3] - The rapeseed market is affected by production forecasts and import expectations, with rapeseed meal potentially rebounding and rapeseed oil remaining range - bound [6] - The corn market is affected by harvest expectations and trade sentiment, with a possible short - term rebound and long - term weakening [7] - The live hog market is under supply pressure and policy influence, with prices expected to remain weak [8] - The egg market shows signs of capacity reduction, and the price cycle may turn around in the second half of the year [9] Summary by Commodity Soybean - The price of soybean No. 1 has stopped falling and rebounded, with the spread between domestic and imported soybeans widening. Policy - driven sales have increased supply pressure, and demand is weak. Attention should be paid to soybean policies [2] - As of August 26, about 11% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. Global oil prices are rising due to biodiesel policies, which may boost soybean crushing. China may face a soybean supply gap in Q1 next year. Future weather in the US may challenge new - season crops [3] Soybean Meal - The soybean meal market may continue to be volatile in the short - term and is cautiously bullish in the long - term due to the "crushing for oil" pattern and potential supply gaps [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The markets are in a state of shock correction. The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil shows a decrease in production and an increase in export demand in August. The Indonesian market has better supply - demand prospects. Mid - term overseas palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle, and buying on dips can be considered [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed meal may stabilize and rebound slightly after a continuous decline. Rapeseed oil is difficult to break out of the narrow - range shock pattern. The expected production of Canadian rapeseed may exceed the current forecast, and attention should be paid to the follow - up of the Saskatchewan governor's visit to China [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continued to rise with reduced positions. The auction of imported corn had a low transaction rate. New - season corn is expected to be a bumper harvest. After the new - season corn starts to be priced in September, it may rebound briefly, but it will continue to be weak at the bottom in the long - term [7] Live Hogs - Live hog futures prices continued to fall, and spot prices remained stable. The supply of live hogs is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and prices are expected to remain weak. Policy aims to promote capacity reduction, but no inflection point has been seen yet [8] Eggs - Egg futures prices rebounded slightly at a low level, and spot prices fell significantly. The total futures positions have doubled in the past month. Attention should be paid to the seasonal rebound of egg prices. Signs of old - hen culling are emerging, and capacity reduction is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. Buying futures contracts for the first half of next year on dips can be considered [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil may shift to a volatile trend before geopolitical risks further intensify, and short - selling opportunities after the peak season should be watched [2]. - Precious metals are in a volatile trend, and a mid - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [3]. - For various metals and industrial products, their prices are influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and seasonal factors, and different trading strategies are suggested accordingly [4][5][6]. - For agricultural products, their prices are affected by factors like weather, trade policies, and supply - demand expectations, and corresponding investment outlooks are provided [34][35][36]. - In the financial market, the stock index is in a stage of considering geopolitical and economic risks, and a style of increasing allocation to technology - growth sectors is maintained; the yield curve of treasury bonds is expected to steepen [46][47]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent's October contract up 0.82%. Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 2.392 million barrels. Before geopolitical risks further intensify, crude oil may turn to a volatile trend [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: After a sharp decline in oil prices, fuel - related futures also fell. As of the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales and China's bonded marine fuel filling demand decreased year - on - year, but domestic refinery production enthusiasm was also low. The overall fundamentals are relatively more positive [21]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content. Metals - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices declined. The market is still cautious about the economic performance. High - level short positions should be held [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed the overall decline of non - ferrous metals. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with resistance at the 21,000 - yuan area [5]. - **Zinc**: Fundamentally, supply increases while demand is weak. Although the short - term downside space is limited, one should wait for short - selling opportunities at high levels [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel's rebound was blocked and it fell back. The overall inventory is still high, and one should look for short - selling positions [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, both domestic and international tin prices broke through the integer - level resistance and expanded their gains. It is expected that tin prices still have the potential to rise in the short term [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price of lithium carbonate corrected, and the market trading volume shrank. It is expected to be strongly volatile in general [11]. Industrial Products - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. The short - term market sentiment led to the weakening of the futures price. One should pay attention to the support at 8,300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures are approaching the lower limit of the volatile range. It is recommended to wait and see for now [13]. - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices were weakly volatile. The market is under negative feedback pressure, but the overall inventory level is relatively low. The short - term price is still under pressure [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures were volatile overnight. The overall supply - demand situation is gradually weakening, and it is expected to be weakly volatile [15]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Their prices decreased during the day. The prices are greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and short - term volatility is high [16][17]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Affected by the auction of imported soybeans, the price of Dalian soybean meal continued to fall. The market is cautiously bullish on Dalian soybean meal in the medium - to - long - term [34]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: They showed a volatile adjustment. One can consider buying on dips in the medium - to - long - term, but short - term attention should be paid to soybean policy guidance [35]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed sector is in a short - term volatile consolidation pattern [36]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures rebounded last night. Given the good growth of US corn and the expected domestic harvest, the futures may continue to be weakly traded at the bottom [38]. - **Hogs**: The spot and futures prices of hogs are both weak. It is expected that the hog price will remain weak in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures continued to set new lows with increased positions. One can consider buying futures contracts for the first half of next year on dips [40]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market lacks strong positive factors and is expected to be volatile in the short term. Zhengzhou cotton should be bought on dips [41]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar has insufficient positive factors. Sugar prices are expected to remain volatile [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price increased with increased positions. The short - term price may continue to rise, but there is a lack of positive factors on the supply side in the medium - to - long - term [43]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The stock index is in a stage of considering geopolitical and economic risks. The strategy of increasing allocation to technology - growth sectors is maintained [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The yield curve is expected to steepen [47].

Group 1: Macro Asset Tracking - The bond market is experiencing a downward trend, with long-term bonds declining more than short-term ones. The risk of continued decline in interest rate bonds remains high after a period of fluctuation [19] - The A-share market showed a rebound led by the technology sector, with the STAR 50 index rising over 7%. The total market turnover was approximately 3 trillion, with over 2800 stocks rising [21] - The U.S. stock market indices all rose, with the Nasdaq up 0.21%, Dow Jones up 0.32%, and S&P 500 up 0.24%. The dovish comments from Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting opened the door for potential rate cuts [27] Group 2: A-Share Market Insights - The market's upward trend remains intact, supported by recent policy shifts towards increased fiscal spending aimed at households, such as the introduction of birth subsidies [21] - The political bureau meeting in July provided a more optimistic outlook on overseas risks compared to April, indicating a high probability of positive outcomes in U.S.-China trade negotiations [21] - The market is advised to avoid chasing high prices and instead focus on buying on dips, utilizing moving averages for incremental purchases [21] Group 3: U.S. Market Analysis - Powell's remarks suggest a high tolerance for inflation increases while being cautious about employment market weaknesses, indicating a low threshold for easing and a high threshold for tightening [27] - The current market sentiment is characterized by a return of speculative behavior, with expectations that the U.S. market will challenge new highs [27] Group 4: Currency Market Overview - The onshore RMB against the USD reported at 7.1385, down 211 basis points from the previous close. The dovish tone from Jackson Hole led to a significant drop in the dollar, but a rebound is anticipated [30] - The outlook for the dollar is expected to be weak in the short term, but the cost-effectiveness of shorting the dollar is considered low [30] Group 5: Commodity Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell by 0.16%, with steel and corn sectors leading gains while polyester and oil sectors lagged. The recommendation is to buy on dips, using the July 10 low as support [36]

【豆粕价格因供给担忧下降承压回落】8月28日消息，今年秋季美国大豆丰产预期强，致CBOT大豆期 货收盘下跌，基准期约收低0.2%。不过，中美贸易谈判乐观情绪升温，限制了大盘跌幅。 当前大豆压 榨量处高位，油厂开工率较高，豆粕产量超下游提货需求，库存维持在100万吨以上。远期供给不足担 忧下降，豆粕价格承压连续回落。 市场聚焦中美贸易谈判进展，若中美大豆贸易恢复，国内豆粕市场 将继续回吐此前涨幅。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - On August 27, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to the expected high - yield of US soybeans this fall, but the optimistic sentiment of Sino - US trade negotiations restricted the decline [3] - The soybean market is shifting its focus to potential Sino - US trade negotiations, and the undetermined results may affect the US domestic ending inventory and change the market sentiment from extremely bearish to extremely bullish [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Prices**: DCE Bean 1 2511 closed at 3935 yuan/ton during the day session, down 53 yuan (-1.33%), and 3940 yuan/ton at night, down 16 yuan (-0.40%); DCE Bean Meal 2601 closed at 3045 yuan/ton during the day, down 52 yuan (-1.68%), and 3063 yuan/ton at night, up 8 yuan (+0.26%); CBOT Soybean 11 closed at 1048.25 cents/bushel, down 0.75 cents (-0.07%); CBOT Bean Meal 12 closed at 288.7 dollars/short ton, down 4.4 dollars (-1.50%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price of 43% bean meal was 3060 - 3090 yuan/ton, with different basis levels for different months; in East China, it was 3020 yuan/ton (Taizhou Huifu), and in South China, it was 2970 - 3030 yuan/ton, with various basis adjustments compared to the previous day [1] - **Main Industry Data**: The trading volume of bean meal was 9.35 million tons/day, compared with 7.95 million tons/day in the previous two trading days; the inventory was 98.55 million tons/week, compared with 97.4 million tons/week in the previous two trading weeks [1] [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of bean meal and bean one was 0, indicating a neutral state for the day - session main - contract futures price fluctuations on the reporting day [3]

Report Overview - Date: August 28, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products by Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views - **Palm Oil**: No new fundamental drivers, waiting for a pullback [2][4] - **Soybean Oil**: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, with prices in a sideways consolidation [2][4] - **Soybean Meal**: Slight decline in US soybeans, technical rebound in Dalian soybean meal [2][16] - **Soybean**: Trading sideways [2][18] - **Corn**: Moving sideways [2][20] - **Sugar**: Trading within a range [2][24] - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the situation of new crops and the impact of external market sentiment [2][28] - **Eggs**: Weak sentiment in the distant end [2][35] - **Hogs**: Spot performance falls short of expectations, sell on rallies [2][37] - **Peanuts**: Focus on the listing of new peanuts [2][42] 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daily - closing price was 9,426 yuan/ton with a 0.02% increase, and night - closing price was 9,518 yuan/ton with a 0.98% increase. Soybean oil's daily - closing price was 8,464 yuan/ton with a 0.84% decrease, and night - closing price was 8,394 yuan/ton with a 0.83% decrease [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 36.41% compared to the same period last month. The palm oil industry in Malaysia called on the government to reinvest the windfall profit levy (WPL) revenue and adjust the WPL threshold [5][7] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2601's daily - closing price was 3045 yuan/ton with a 1.68% decrease, and night - closing price was 3063 yuan/ton with a 0.26% increase. DCE soybean 2511's daily - closing price was 3935 yuan/ton with a 1.33% decrease, and night - closing price was 3940 yuan/ton with a 0.40% decrease [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 27, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to expected high yields in the US this fall, but the optimistic sentiment of China - US trade negotiations restricted the decline [19] Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2509 was 2,227 yuan/ton with a 0.95% increase during the day and 2,249 yuan/ton with a 0.99% increase at night. The closing price of C2511 was 2,164 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase during the day and 2,183 yuan/ton with a 0.88% increase at night [21] - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port - collection prices remained stable, while North China's corn prices declined. Imported grains such as sorghum and barley also had price quotes [22] Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 16.44 cents/pound with a 0.02 increase. The mainstream spot price was 5960 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan decrease [24] - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon precipitation has weakened. CAOC estimated China's sugar production, consumption, and imports for the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons [24][25] Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601's daily - closing price was 14,075 yuan/ton with a 0.18% decrease, and night - closing price was 14095 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase [28] - **Macro and Industry News**: The cotton spot market was generally quiet, the cotton yarn market's trading was average, and ICE cotton futures fluctuated narrowly, waiting for weekly export data [29][30] Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2509's closing price was 2,896 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.62% decrease, and Egg 2601's closing price was 3,354 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.47% decrease [35] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [35] Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 13780 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 13450 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 14940 yuan/ton [38] - **Market Logic**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased, demand growth was limited, and the spot performance was disappointing. It is recommended to sell on rallies, with a support level of 13000 yuan/ton and a resistance level of 14000 yuan/ton for the LH2509 contract [37][40] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 7,900 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan decrease. PK510's closing price was 8,042 yuan/ton with a 0.05% increase [42] - **Spot Market**: In Henan, peanut prices were stable with limited supply due to rain. New peanuts are expected to be listed in mid - to late September [43]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held this week. The direction of monetary policy in the second half of the year is crucial for the equity market. A - shares have risen significantly in the past month and are expected to enter a high - level shock waiting for a direction decision [2]. - The bond market sentiment is expected to continue to stabilize. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate may face resistance at 1.78% - 1.8%, corresponding to support for the T2512 contract at 107.4 - 107.6 [2]. - Gold is oscillating strongly, while silver long positions above $38 should be held. The shipping index is weakly oscillating, and short positions in the 10 - contract should be continued [2]. - Steel product demand has stopped falling and rebounded, and can be bought. Iron ore follows steel prices, and should be bought at low levels. Due to a coal mine accident, coking coal, coke futures are expected to rebound and should be bought at low levels [2]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper inventory is decreasing near the peak season, while alumina has a supply surplus. Aluminum alloy consumption shows a marginal improvement trend [2]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil is under pressure from the macro - level, and short - term unilateral trading should be on the sidelines. Urea has a clear supply increase, and short - term trading should be in a band. PX and PTA are still recommended for long - positions [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, soybean meal and rapeseed meal have long - term bullish expectations. Palm oil is running strongly, while sugar should be short - held [2]. - For special commodities, the impact of the coking coal incident has weakened, and glass and soda ash should be short - sold. Natural rubber should be short - sold if raw material supply increases smoothly [2]. - In the new energy sector, polysilicon has falling prices and should be observed, while lithium carbonate has weak sentiment and should also be observed [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares are expected to enter high - level shock. It is recommended to buy put options to protect long positions or partially take profit on previous positions [2]. - **Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment is expected to stabilize. Long positions can be lightly tried on pullbacks [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is oscillating strongly. A bullish spread strategy can be constructed, and silver long positions above $38 should be held [2]. Commodity Futures - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is weakly oscillating, and short positions in the 10 - contract should be continued [2]. - **Steel Products**: Demand has stopped falling and rebounded. Long positions can be tried for hot - rolled coils and rebar at reference prices of 3140 and 3380 yuan respectively [2]. - **Iron Ore**: It follows steel prices. Long positions can be taken at low levels in the range of 770 - 820 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Due to a coal mine accident, long positions can be taken at low levels [2]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increases has been implemented, and long positions can be taken at low levels [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Copper inventory is decreasing near the peak season. Alumina has a supply surplus, and aluminum alloy consumption is improving [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil should be on the sidelines in the short - term. Urea should be traded in a band. PX, PTA, and short - fiber are recommended for long - positions [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal should have long - term long positions. Palm oil is running strongly, and sugar should be short - held [2]. - **Special Commodities**: Glass and soda ash should be short - sold. Natural rubber should be short - sold if raw material supply increases smoothly [2]. - **New Energy**: Polysilicon and lithium carbonate should be observed [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the粕类 market: Neutral [3] - Investment rating for the corn market: Cautiously bearish [5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current fundamentals of soybeans have no significant changes. The growth of US soybeans this year is good, and the domestic soybean meal inventory continues to increase with sufficient supply. Attention should be paid to the growth of new - season US soybeans and Sino - US trade negotiations [2] - For the corn market, the supply in the domestic market is becoming more abundant, while the demand is weak, and the price has limited upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the new - season corn production and Sino - US trade negotiations [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 粕类 Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3081 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-1.15%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2526 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.82%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3070 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2990 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2940 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - US export inspection: As of the week ending August 21, the US soybean export inspection volume was 38.28 tons. Since the 2024/25 season, the US soybean export inspection volume has been 4927.99 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.5%, reaching 96.6% of the annual export target [1] Market Analysis - The current fundamentals of soybeans have no significant changes. The growth of US soybeans this year is good, consistent with the historical high yield of 53.6 bushels per acre in the USDA report. The domestic soybean meal inventory continues to increase, and the supply is relatively loose. The future soybean arrivals in China are still high, and the soybean meal inventory may further increase. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations [2] Strategy - Neutral [3] 2. Corn Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2158 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (+0.19%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2475 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.24%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - US export inspection: As of the week ending August 21, the US corn export inspection volume was 130.53 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39%. Since the 2024/25 season, the US corn export inspection volume has been 6552.59 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.2%, reaching 91.5% of the USDA target. The US corn good - to - excellent rate was 71%, unchanged from the previous week [3] Market Analysis - Domestically, the trade inventory of corn in the Northeast is decreasing, and traders are actively selling. The autumn corn in Hubei is about to be listed, and a small amount of spring corn in the Huaihe River area has been listed, so the supply is becoming more abundant. The operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has slightly decreased, and the inventory has continued to decline. Feed enterprises maintain a rigid demand for corn and mainly use inventory. The price has limited upward momentum, and the overall demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the listing of new grain [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

与此同时，对冲基金通过降低多头仓位和加大卖空操作，减持了在香港上市的互联网巨头股票。 据了解，上半年表现逊于亚太其他市场的在岸中国股票，于第三季度迎来补涨行情，并于本月创下十年 新高。截至本月，基准上证综指累计上涨12%，蓝筹股沪深300指数涨幅达9%。分析师表示，充裕的流 动性以及对中美贸易谈判的乐观预期共同提振了市场情绪。 摩根士丹利估算，截至8月22日，专注中国市场的股票多空基金本月平均收益达3%，年内累计涨幅扩大 至13.5%。 摩根士丹利发布报告称，全球对冲基金正在加大对中国股票的配置力度，8月有望成为自2月以来资金净 流入最高的月份。 该行指出，自8月初以来，对冲基金买入"明显偏向(在岸)A股"，与2月DeepSeek人工智能技术突破后资 金涌入香港科技股市场的情形形成鲜明对比。 行业方面，根据摩根士丹利周二发布的报告，上周消费必需品和工业板块吸引了最多资金流入。 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with Brent's October contract down 2.17%. From August 27, the US imposed a 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil. Indian refineries' Russian oil purchases are expected to drop from 1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of the year to 1.4 - 1.6 million barrels per day after October. Before geopolitical risks further escalate, crude oil may enter a sideways trend [1]. Precious Metals - Overnight, precious metals trended sideways with an upward bias. The market has priced in a September Fed rate cut, but the future economic direction remains uncertain. Trump's dismissal of Fed officials has reignited concerns about the Fed's independence, which may further erode the US dollar's credit. Maintain a strategy of buying on dips [2]. Copper - Overnight, LME copper closed higher, while SHFE copper traded sideways below 79,500 yuan. The decline in US durable goods orders in July was better than expected, and consumer confidence remained weak. Hold short positions at high levels [3]. Aluminum - Overnight, SHFE aluminum rose. At the beginning of the week, social inventories of aluminum ingots increased by 20,000 tons, and aluminum rods by 9,000 tons compared to last Thursday. In the short - term, SHFE aluminum will test the resistance around 21,000 yuan [4]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of SHFE aluminum. The spot price of Baotai was raised to 20,200 yuan. There is room for the cross - variety spread between the spot and SHFE aluminum to further narrow [5]. Alumina - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and both industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts are rising. It is in a weak sideways trend, with support at the 3,000 - yuan level [6]. Zinc - The increase in global zinc mine supply is being realized, and TC continues to rise. Wait for short - selling opportunities after a rebound [7]. Lead - Due to weak demand, the rebound momentum is weak. However, the decline space is also limited [8]. Silver and Stainless Steel - SHFE silver rebounded slightly, with dull market trading. Technically, silver prices still show an intention to rebound, but the fundamentals are weak. Look for short - selling opportunities [8]. Tin - Overnight, both domestic and overseas tin prices rose, breaking through the integer - level resistance. It is expected that tin prices still have the potential to rise in the short term [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate corrected, and market trading volume shrank. Adopt a bullish approach with risk control [10]. Industrial Silicon - The futures price of industrial silicon decreased with reduced positions. In the short term, the price is under pressure due to emotional factors. Observe the support at 8,300 yuan per ton [11]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to trade sideways. In the short term, it is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. Continue to buy on dips [12]. Iron Ore - Overnight, the iron ore futures market traded sideways. Overall, the supply - demand situation of iron ore is weakening marginally, and it is expected to trade in a high - level range [14]. Coke - The intraday price of coke declined. In the short term, the price volatility is high. Observe the support at the previous low [15]. Coking Coal - The intraday price of coking coal declined. In the short term, the price volatility is high. Observe the support at the previous low [16]. Manganese Silicon - The intraday price of manganese silicon was in a weak sideways trend. Observe the support at the previous low [17]. Ferrosilicon - The intraday price of ferrosilicon was in a weak sideways trend. It mainly follows the trend of manganese silicon [18]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The spot market for shipping continues to decline. The spot price is expected to continue to fall [19]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Overnight, oil prices tumbled. The LU - FU spread is expected to continue to narrow [20]. Asphalt - Overnight, oil prices tumbled, but the decline of BU was limited. Low inventory levels support both the futures and spot prices of asphalt [21]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international market rebounded supported by import demand. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness [22]. Urea - Urea futures prices were in a weak sideways trend, and spot prices continued to fall. In the short term, it is expected to continue to trade in a low - level range [23]. Methanol - Methanol prices continued to fall overnight. Pay attention to the macro atmosphere and the possibility of the restart of coastal MTO plants [24]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene prices continued to trade in a narrow range overnight. In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand situation may continue to be under pressure [25]. Styrene - The cost - side support has slightly improved, but there is no upward impetus. There is still an expectation of inventory accumulation [26]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The inventory pressure of propylene producers is not significant, but downstream demand has weakened. The supply of polyethylene and polypropylene is expected to increase slightly [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC is in a sideways trend. The price of caustic soda has fallen from a high level. The current price is not cost - effective for chasing long positions [28]. PX and PTA - Overnight, PX continued its strong trend, while PTA had a weak rebound. Pay attention to the actual dynamics of the plants, the direction of oil prices, and the pace of polyester capacity utilization increase [28]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol is trading sideways around 4,500 yuan per ton. In the short term, it is relatively strong [29]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - The supply - demand situation of short - fiber is stable, driven by cost. Consider a long - position allocation if demand improvement is realized in the medium term. The bottle - chip industry faces long - term over - capacity pressure [30]. Glass - The spot price of glass is facing a weak reality of decline. Given the current low valuation and positive macro policies, the downward space of futures prices is limited [31]. 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - International crude oil futures prices tumbled, while the price of Thai raw materials was stable with a slight increase. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [32]. Soda Ash - The supply of soda ash fluctuates slightly. In the long term, the supply of soda ash remains under high pressure. Consider short - selling at high rebounds [33]. Group 2: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - As of the week of August 24, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 69%. In the medium - to - long term, there is a cautious bullish view on domestic soybean meal futures [34]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The market has positive expectations for China - US trade negotiations. Consider buying soybean and palm oil on dips in the medium - to - long term [35]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed sector is in a short - term sideways consolidation pattern, and the price center may shift downward [36]. Soybean No. 1 - The price of Soybean No. 1 showed a weak decline. Domestic soybeans need to continue to pay attention to policies and the performance of imported soybeans in the short term [37]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures may continue to operate weakly at the bottom [38]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs is weak, and the futures market follows the spot trend. The pig price is expected to remain weak in the medium term [39]. Eggs - Egg futures are in a weak trend. The probability of significant capacity reduction in the second half of this year is increasing. Consider buying futures contracts for the first half of next year on dips [40]. Cotton - US cotton prices tumbled yesterday. Operate by buying on dips for Zhengzhou cotton [41]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices traded sideways. It is expected that sugar prices will maintain a sideways trend [42]. Apples - Apple futures prices are in a sideways trend. The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season yield estimate. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [43]. Wood - Wood futures prices are in a sideways trend. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the peak - season demand has not started. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [44]. Pulp - Pulp futures prices continued to fall yesterday. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy or trade within the range [45]. Group 3: Financial Products Stock Index - Yesterday, the broader market traded in a narrow range with reduced volume. Maintain an increased allocation to the technology - growth sector, and also pay attention to opportunities in the consumption and cyclical sectors [46]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. It is expected that the probability of a steeper yield curve will increase [47]