Core Viewpoint - The April PMI data reflects the impact of tariff shocks, indicating that the previous "export rush" has come to an end, with significant declines in both manufacturing PMI and new export orders, surpassing the declines seen in 2018 [1] Dimension 1: Direct Impact - The new export orders index for April PMI dropped by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, marking a decline much steeper than the -2.7 percentage points seen during the lowest growth rates between 2018-2019 [5] - High-frequency data also shows a clear decline in export container freight rates to regions such as the U.S. West Coast, East Coast, and South America in April, signaling the end of the "export rush" [5] Dimension 2: Indirect Impact - The PMI new orders index, representing domestic demand, fell to 49.2% (down 2.6 percentage points), while the PMI production index dropped to 49.8% (down 2.8 percentage points), both falling below the growth threshold and contributing to the overall decline in manufacturing PMI [11] Dimension 3: Corporate Behavior Impact - As demand weakens, companies are more inclined to reduce prices to clear inventory, with the PMI finished goods inventory index decreasing by 0.7 percentage points to 47.3% and the PMI production expectations index falling by 1.7 percentage points [13] - The PMI ex-factory price index also declined by 3.1 percentage points to 44.8%, indicating ongoing downward pressure on inflation [13] Dimension 4: Employment and Expectations Impact - The negative impact of U.S. tariffs on the PMI employment index and production expectations index may be more significant and longer-lasting than the direct effects on exports [16] - The PMI employment index fell by 0.3 percentage points to 47.9%, aligning with the political bureau's emphasis on "stabilizing employment," "stabilizing enterprises," and "stabilizing expectations" [16] Dimension 5: Impact by Enterprise Type - In April, the PMIs for large, medium, and small enterprises were 49.2%, 48.8%, and 48.7% respectively, with declines of 2.0 percentage points, 1.1 percentage points, and 0.9 percentage points, indicating a downturn in business sentiment across all sizes, particularly among small enterprises [17] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing sector also experienced a decline, with the construction PMI at 51.9% (down 1.5 percentage points) and the services PMI at 50.1% (down 0.2 percentage points), both at historically low levels [20] Policy Implications - The tariff shocks reflected in the PMI data suggest that policy measures may need to prioritize "stabilizing livelihoods" over "total countermeasures," with a focus on targeted structural policies for affected enterprises expected to be accelerated [22]

2025 年 4 月 PMI 点评 4 月 PMI：盘点冲击信号 2025 年 04 月 30 日 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhongyumei@mszq.com 与此同时，4 月进口也受到较大冲击。4 月 PMI 进口指数环比降幅达 4.1pct，这 一降幅为 2020 年 5 月以来的最大降幅，同时也超过了"贸易冲突 1.0"时期 2.6pct 的最大降幅。 ➢ 维度二（间接影响）：供需两端同步放缓。4 月代表内需的 PMI 新订单指数 为 49.2%（环比-2.6pct），代表生产的 PMI 生产指数为 49.8%（环比-2.8pct）。 两个指标同时降至荣枯线之下，成为 4 月制造业 PMI 的两大拖累项，外部风险 的加剧对国内产需也造成一定负面影响。 ➢ 维度三（企业行为影响）：主动去库后的价格下跌。随着需求的走弱，企业 面对未来不确定性，更倾向于通过降价等方式加快对库存的"清理"，4 月 PMI 产成品库存指数下降 0.7pct 至 47.3%、同时 PMI 生产经营预期指数下降 1.7pct 均佐证了这一点。外部冲击下企业的主动去库行为导致 4 月 PMI 出厂价格指数 ...

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index closing at 22,008, up 0.16% year-to-date increase of 29.10% [1] - The US markets continued to rebound, with the Dow Jones up 0.75% and the S&P 500 up 0.58%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 7.53% and 16.58% respectively [1][3] Industry Insights - The equipment manufacturing sector reported Q1 2025 earnings, with SANY Heavy Industry exceeding expectations with a 56% year-on-year profit increase, driven by an 18% revenue growth [4] - The pharmaceutical company WuXi AppTec reported a strong Q1 2025, with revenue up 21% to 9.65 billion yuan and a non-IFRS net profit increase of 40% to 2.68 billion yuan [4][6] - Mindray Medical's revenue for 2024 was 36.7 billion yuan, a 5.1% increase, but faced challenges in the domestic market with a 12.1% decline in Q1 2025 revenue [7][8] Company Analysis - WuXi AppTec maintained its full-year guidance despite macro uncertainties, expecting a 10-15% revenue growth in its continuing operations for 2025 [4][6] - Mindray Medical's overseas revenue grew by 21.3% in 2024, accounting for 44.7% of total revenue, indicating strong international market performance [7] - Luckin Coffee reported a 41% year-on-year sales increase in Q1 2025, driven by strong same-store sales growth and rapid store expansion [11][12] Investment Ratings - SANY Heavy Industry is rated as a "Buy" with a focus on its excavator business cycle and overseas growth potential [4] - WuXi AppTec is also rated as a "Buy," with a target price of 77.22 yuan, reflecting confidence in its growth despite external challenges [6] - Mindray Medical is rated as a "Buy," with a target price of 249.19 yuan, anticipating recovery in domestic sales in the latter half of 2025 [8]

0:00 针对美国滥施关税，有不少美国专家认为这会对供应链带来冲击。更有美国物流业从业者表示，进口减少会对货运量以及物流岗位带来巨大影响。 美国消费者与商业新闻频道主持人 吉姆·克拉默：这些关税是政府强加的，会冲击供应链。 彭博新闻社财经专家布伦丹·默里认为，无论是沃尔玛、塔吉特这样的大型零售商还是小型公司，都难以承受145%的进口关税，这会直接导致订单量的锐减 甚至消失。 彭博新闻社财经专家 布伦丹·默里：沃尔玛、塔吉特这样的大型零售商，以及其他小型公司，都认为承担不起从中国进口商品加征的145%关税，这比他们可 以承担的两倍还要多。我们可以预见，几周之后，如果订单没了，美国的港口货物量将减少，美国的商品库存也会减少。（美国商贸）体系没法应对货物量 的大幅降低。 此外，有美国物流业从业者表示，进口活动的停止不仅会使货运业遭遇重创，对就业岗位也会带来巨大冲击。 美国"货运浪潮"公司首席执行官 克雷格·富勒：（关税）会带来非常非常严重的后果，很快会对美国国内经济带来冲击。在两到四周内，我们的货运业会遭 受重创，或许总的货运量会下降6%，因为我们进口活动停止了。美国全国范围内，有900万人从事物流业，所有这些岗位 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that when exchange rate fluctuations cannot absorb tariff impacts, costs will increase [1] Group 2 - The statement highlights the relationship between currency movements and tariff effects, indicating that inadequate exchange rate adjustments lead to higher operational costs for companies [1]

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index closing at 21,972, down 0.04% for the day but up 28.89% year-to-date [1] - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.20% and the Shenzhen Composite Index down 0.93% [3] - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of HKD 2.03 billion [3] Company Analysis BYD Electronics (285 HK) - The company reported flat earnings for Q1 2025, primarily due to weak demand for high-end smartphones and potential tariff impacts on Apple’s assembly business [4] - The gross profit margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 6.3% quarter-on-quarter, but decreased by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Management maintains a positive outlook for 2025, citing growth in Apple assembly, stable Android business, strong automotive demand, and growth in servers/robots [4] Wentech Technology (600745 CH) - The company’s revenue decreased by 19.4% year-on-year to RMB 13.1 billion, but net profit surged by 82.3% to RMB 261 million [5] - The gross margin recovered to 14.0%, indicating resilience in the semiconductor business [5] - The company is transitioning to focus on semiconductor business after divesting its ODM operations, which is expected to drive future growth [5] Li Ning (2331 HK) - Retail sales growth deteriorated in April 2025, with management noting a decline in offline channels due to adverse weather and a challenging macro environment [6][7] - Despite the challenges, the company maintains its full-year guidance, expecting stable sales growth and high single-digit net profit margins [6] - The company’s Q1 retail sales growth was in line with expectations, with online channels performing strongly [7] China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK) - The company reported a 39% year-on-year increase in new business value for Q1 2025, exceeding expectations [11][12] - However, the group’s net profit fell by 18.1% to RMB 9.63 billion, primarily due to declines in bond fair value and mismatches in yield curves [11] - The management expects operational profit to maintain low single-digit growth for the year, supported by business transformation [13] Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH) - The company’s EBIT grew by only 2% year-on-year to RMB 440 million, with net profit increasing by 42% due to non-operating income [10] - The company faces challenges from unpredictable U.S. tariff policies, which may impact demand for its products in the U.S. market [10] - The target price remains at RMB 44, reflecting a cautious outlook on profitability [10] 康方生物 (9926 HK) - The company continues to show promise with its drug AK112, which has demonstrated efficacy in clinical trials against competitors [9][10] - The ongoing trials in overseas markets are expected to yield significant data, enhancing the drug's potential for approval and market entry [9][10] - The target price for 康方生物 is set at HKD 108.03, maintaining a buy rating based on the drug's promising results [10]

复盘历史可知，全球范围内的大规模加征关税会对全球贸易造成显著冲击。 1929年后，全球经济渐次步入衰退。在此情形下，保护本国就业，让农民免受外国竞争的影响，成为美国政府的首要目标。基于此，胡佛政府推动关税法案 自1929年起在国会开启听证与投票程序，历经一番过程，《斯穆特-霍利关税法案》最终于1930年6月正式落地。 《斯穆特-霍利关税法案》将美国超过两万种进口商品的关税大幅提高，其关税水平跃至历史第二高，仅次于1828年的关税水平。关税法案出台后，美国主 要贸易伙伴迅速做出反应，英国、加拿大、日本等国纷纷采取相关反制措施。在这些举措的共同作用下，美国与各主要贸易伙伴之间的双边贸易额均大幅下 滑。与此同时，全球贸易额也呈现持续收缩的态势，国际贸易环境急剧恶化。 从关税法案的具体影响来看，1929—1933年，全球贸易额减少了29.7%，且在关税法案出台的10年后全球贸易额仍未修复到1929年的水平。主要贸易伙伴方 面，1929—1933年，美国从加拿大、德国、英国和日本等国家的进口额均减少超过50%，其间对这些国家的出口额也至少缩减30%。直到1934年，民主党政 府颁布了《互惠贸易协定法》，允许总统在未经国 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of tariff increases on businesses, highlighting the financial challenges they face, such as funding shortages and trade friction, prompting financial institutions to adapt their strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Institutions' Responses - Financial institutions are implementing dynamic credit strategies to address the varying risk exposures across different industries and companies, moving away from traditional risk assessment models [1][2]. - A bank has developed a "tariff shock stress test model" that integrates customs data, industry chain maps, and exchange rate fluctuation models to adjust credit limits and enhance management [1]. - Some banks are offering specialized credit products and services to support foreign trade enterprises, ensuring they do not withdraw or reduce loans abruptly [3]. Group 2: Credit Strategy Adjustments - Banks are adjusting credit limits and pricing based on macroeconomic conditions and the creditworthiness of clients, with a focus on dynamic management of credit assets [2]. - Recommendations for banks include analyzing existing credit assets, adjusting risk limits, and providing support to affected enterprises through flexible repayment arrangements and new tax policies [2][4]. - New loans should incorporate the impacts of tariff wars into risk assessments, with an emphasis on introducing insurance and risk-sharing mechanisms [2][6]. Group 3: Support for Affected Industries - The Shanghai University of Finance and Economics suggests providing financial support, such as low-interest loans and export credits, to key industries heavily impacted by tariffs, like furniture and toys [4]. - There is a call for banks to offer supply chain financial services to alleviate pressures on upstream suppliers and enhance cash flow management for affected businesses [6]. - The focus on high-tech and innovative sectors is emphasized, with banks encouraged to provide specialized loans based on intellectual property and R&D investments [6][7]. Group 4: Strategic Collaborations - A collaboration between banks and insurance companies aims to create a comprehensive financial service plan for private technology enterprises, facilitating their growth from R&D to market entry [7]. - The article notes that the increase in tariffs may lead Chinese companies to abandon low-price strategies, potentially benefiting high-end equipment industries [7]. - The shift towards high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing is highlighted as a key trend, with high-end equipment being a crucial driver for economic development [7].

特朗普关税引爆连锁反应，价格飙升正在席卷美国市场。周一，美股期货开盘走低，市场担忧涨价潮将导致消费需求萎缩和通胀压力上升的双重打击。 亚马逊近千种商品平均涨价29%，而Shein美容和健康类商品中排名前100的产品平均涨价51%，部分品类商品价格暴涨高达377%。 这波价格调整不仅影响在 线零售商，还波及宝洁、联合利华等消费品巨头。 电商平台掀起涨价潮 在特朗普政府关税政策威胁下，电商巨头们已开始大规模涨价行动。 亚马逊平台上的商家正面临严峻抉择：要么提高价格，要么自行承担美国新关税带来的额外成本。而这些卖家早已面临利润被挤压的困境。过去几年，仓储、 配送、运输和广告费等成本不断上升，同时激烈的平台竞争也带来了价格压力。 另据媒体报道，快时尚巨头Shein在即将到来的小包裹关税实施前大幅提高了美国产品价格。 数据显示，Shein在美国大部分物价上涨发生在周五，部分品类的涨幅明显高于其他品类。美国市场上Shein的美容和健康类商品中排名前100的产品较周四平 均涨价51%，家居厨房产品和玩具平均涨幅超过30%，一款10件套厨房毛巾价格暴涨377%，女装价格平均上涨8%。 媒体对50件不同类别商品的抽样调查发现， ...

编者按：美国滥施关税给全球贸易带来巨大冲击，作为中国第一经济大省、第一外贸大省的 广东如何积极应对？即日起，南都、N视频推出"关税冲击下的广东突围"专题报道，深度走 访记录广东各行各业充分研判、科学谋划、主动调整，借助广交会等平台，于市场变局中开 产业新局的探索实践。 近期，美国政府滥施关税，致使全球产业链与供应链遭受严重冲击。在此背景下，玩具产业正经历前所 未有的挑战，探寻发展新路径迫在眉睫。 即将开幕的第137届广交会第三期，以"美好生活"为主题，为全球玩具企业拓展新市场、挖掘潜在合作 机会，提供了强有力的支撑与绝佳契机。 4月24日至25日，南都、N视频记者对话多位广东玩具创意产业从业者，以及前来参加广交会、借此拓 展商机的商家了解到，在全球市场上，我国玩具产业已形成成熟、高效的供应链，短时间内无法被替 代；与此同时，有企业提前谋划、主动破局，着力培育自有IP，转型深挖国内消费潜力。 广交会上的信心与底气 人潮涌动的地铁车厢、烟火气十足的大排档、霓虹闪烁的鸡尾酒吧……四月的羊城，处处可见外国友人 的身影，他们中的不少人，正是广交会的参展客商。 "每届广交会都会吸引全球各地的采购商。我们坚持参展很多年，效 ...