Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Precious Metals Data Daily [4] - Date: July 18, 2025 [5] - Research Institution: ITC Guomao Futures [3] - Analyst: Baishuna from the Macroeconomic and Financial Research Center [5] Group 2: Market Data Price and Price Changes - On July 17, 2025, London Gold Spot was at $3334.99/ounce (-0.1% from the previous day), London Silver Spot at $37.88/ounce (0.0% change), COMEX Gold at $3340.80/ounce (-0.2% change), and COMEX Silver at $38.11/ounce (-0.2% change). Shanghai gold and silver futures and spot also had corresponding price changes [5]. - The price differences and ratios between different gold and silver varieties also changed. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was -2.24 yuan/gram on July 17, with a 14.3% change from the previous day [5]. Positions and Inventories - As of July 16, 2025, the non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver had different degrees of change compared to the previous day. Gold ETF - SPDR was at 950.79 tons (0.33% change), and Silver ETF - SLV was at 14819.28626 tons (-0.25% change) [5]. - On July 17, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 28872.00 kg (0.00% change from the previous day), and SHFE silver inventory was 1217085.00 kg (0.35% change). COMEX gold and silver inventories also had slight increases [5]. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Other Market Indicators - On July 17, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.15 (-0.09% change). The US dollar index was 98.29 (-0.35% change), and US Treasury yields and other indicators also changed [5]. Group 3: Core Views Short - term Logic - The decrease in the number of initial jobless claims in the US and strong retail sales data weakened the short - term downward risk of the US economy, which put pressure on precious metal prices. However, due to the uncertainty of tariffs and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, precious metal prices were also supported. It is expected that gold prices will continue to fluctuate. For silver, although the market risk preference is still high, the silver price may gradually strengthen, and the gold - silver ratio may start to rise [5]. Medium - and Long - term Logic - Against the background of the trade war, the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates this year. With global geopolitical uncertainties, the intensification of great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, the long - term upward trend of gold has not changed. It is recommended to continue to allocate long positions on dips [5]. Group 4: Market News - US President Trump announced on the 12th that starting from August 1, a 30% tariff would be imposed on EU imported goods. The EU Commission stated on the 14th that if the US - EU trade negotiation fails, the EU is ready to impose additional counter - tariffs on US imported products worth about $84 billion and has formulated a counter - measure list [5]. - Trump said he did not plan to remove Fed Chairman Powell from office. Fed official Williams said that the initial impact of tariffs on commodity prices was starting to be seen, and the impact on inflation was expected to intensify in the coming months [5]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 12 was 221,000, a new low since the week ending April 12, 2025. The number of continued jobless claims for the week ending July 5 was 1.956 million, lower than expected [5].

Core Insights - PUIG Group reported a net revenue of €2.299 billion (approximately ¥191.74 billion) for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.6% [1] - All departments and regions of the group achieved positive growth, with the Asia-Pacific region showing the highest growth rate of 16.5% [1][11] - The fragrance and fashion segment, the largest business unit, generated a net revenue of €1.685 billion (approximately ¥140.52 billion), marking an 8.6% increase year-on-year [2][4] Financial Performance - The fragrance and fashion segment accounted for 73% of the total revenue, with a net income of €1.685 billion for H1 2025, up 8.6% year-on-year [2][3] - In Q2 2025, the fragrance and fashion segment reported a net income of €788 million (approximately ¥65.56 billion), with a year-on-year growth of 6.7% [4] - The makeup segment generated a net income of €339 million (approximately ¥28.26 billion) for H1 2025, reflecting a 2% year-on-year increase [4][5] - The skincare segment achieved a net income of €276 million (approximately ¥23.02 billion) for H1 2025, with an 8.6% year-on-year growth [5] Regional Performance - The EMEA region (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) remains the largest sales area for PUIG, generating €1.199 billion (approximately ¥100.04 billion) in H1 2025, a 3.6% year-on-year increase [8][9] - The Americas region reported a net income of €867 million (approximately ¥72.33 billion) for H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 10.9% [10] - The Asia-Pacific region, the fastest-growing area, achieved a net income of €234 million (approximately ¥19.51 billion) in H1 2025, up 16.5% year-on-year [11] Future Outlook - PUIG Group anticipates a full-year net revenue growth of 6%-8% for 2025, with adjusted EBITDA margins expected to remain stable compared to the previous year [12][13] - The company acknowledges a potential slowdown in growth rates, influenced by the overall global beauty market trends [12][14] - The CEO highlighted the importance of the fragrance and fashion segment, which has historically contributed over 70% of total revenue, in sustaining the company's growth trajectory [14][16]

Group 1 - The core message from the Federal Reserve's John Williams indicates that the impact of tariffs on the economy will soon become apparent, leading to a slowdown in economic growth and a cautious stance on monetary policy [3][12] - The market's reaction to macroeconomic changes, such as tariffs and economic slowdown, will ultimately be reflected in trading behaviors within capital markets [3][12] Group 2 - Ordinary investors often focus on surface-level news and fail to recognize the true actions of market participants, which can lead to anxiety over trading decisions [5][10] - Two case studies illustrate the difference in trading behaviors: "Shenzhou Cell" showed clear institutional involvement in short covering, while "Hua Dong Pharmaceutical" appeared to be driven by short-term funds [6][9] Group 3 - Quantitative data can reveal market patterns, with specific indicators showing the level of institutional activity in trading behaviors [11][12] - Understanding how funds will respond to macroeconomic factors is crucial for determining investment returns, rather than solely focusing on the economic indicators themselves [12][14] Group 4 - Recommendations for investors include avoiding being swayed by surface news, distinguishing between market noise and real signals, and valuing quantitative data in trading behavior analysis [16]

Core Viewpoint - Volvo Cars reported a significant decline in adjusted operating profit for the second quarter, primarily due to the impact of tariffs and weakened consumer confidence [1] Financial Performance - The adjusted operating profit for the second quarter fell from 8 billion Swedish Krona (approximately 298 million USD) in the same period last year to 2.9 billion Swedish Krona [1] - The gross margin decreased from 18.2% in the first quarter to 13.5%, and adjusted for one-time factors, it dropped to 17.7% [1] Market Conditions - The company indicated that demand remains weak and unstable due to reduced consumer confidence and the imposition of additional tariffs, which continue to pose challenges for the automotive industry [1] - Volvo Cars is the first major European automaker to release earnings data ahead of the upcoming challenging earnings season [1]

Market Overview - US stock indices opened higher but experienced slight declines before rebounding slightly, with the Dow Jones at 44060.38 (+0.08%), Nasdaq at 20686.21 (+0.04%), and S&P 500 at 6246.34 (+0.04%) [2] - Chinese concept stocks showed weakness, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down over 2% [4] Economic Data - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for June unexpectedly came in lower than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, compared to an expected 2.5% and a previous value of 2.6% [2] - Month-on-month PPI remained flat, marking the lowest since January, against an expected increase of 0.2% [2] Company-Specific News - ASML, a leading Dutch lithography equipment manufacturer, saw its stock drop over 10% due to concerns over the impact of US tariffs on its growth prospects [2][3] - ASML's CEO indicated that the company may not achieve growth by 2026 due to the effects of US tariff policies [3] - The semiconductor industry, including ASML, is increasingly vulnerable to potential US trade restrictions, with rising machine and chip prices amid geopolitical uncertainties [4] Chinese Tech Stocks - Major Chinese tech stocks experienced declines, with Baidu down over 7%, Alibaba down over 2%, and JD.com down nearly 2% [5][6] - The Wande Chinese Technology Leaders Index fell by 1.38%, and the Wande Chinese Stocks 100 Index decreased by 2.11% [5] Commodity Market - Domestic commodity futures mostly declined, with copper down 0.19%, alumina down 1.24%, and coking coal down over 1% [6] - International crude oil, silver, and gold prices also saw significant drops [6] Economic Outlook - Bank of America forecasts that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates before next year, with expectations of moderate economic growth of about 1.5% by year-end [7] - The CEO of Bank of America noted that both personal and corporate clients continue to spend, seeking certainty in the market [7]

Inflation Trends - US inflation rebounded slightly in June, with CPI rising from 2.4% to 2.7% year-on-year[1] - Core CPI increased from 2.8% to 2.9% year-on-year, while month-on-month growth rose from 0.13% to 0.23%[6] - Food prices maintained a month-on-month growth of 0.3%, while energy prices rebounded from -1% to 0.9%[6] Market Expectations - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly decreased, with the probability of no change in July rising to 96%[1] - The anticipated rate cut for the year has decreased from 48 basis points (bp) to 44 bp[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain rates in July, with potential cuts in September and either October or December[7] Employment and Demand - The job market shows signs of weakening demand, influenced by seasonal hiring patterns[1] - New and used car prices have declined, indicating reduced consumer demand[6] - Core service prices have shown a slight rebound, particularly in healthcare and leisure services, influenced by immigration policies[6] Future Projections - Inflation is expected to see a slight rebound in Q3 before gradually declining[1] - The CPI month-on-month growth is projected to peak around 0.4% in August-September[7] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is anticipated to become more pronounced, particularly in core goods[6]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月16日 美国 6 月 CPI 数据点评 美国通胀温和上涨 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 季家辉 | 021-61761056 | jijiahui@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522010002 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 美东时间 7 月 15 日，美国劳工统计局发布 6 月 CPI 通胀数据：环比来看，整体 CPI 上涨 0.3%，核心 CPI 上涨 0.2%，分别较上月回升 0.2 和 0.1 个百分点。同比来看，整体 CPI 上涨 2.7%，核心 CPI 上涨 2.9%， 较上月回升 0.3 和 0.1 个百分点。 通胀走势：核心 CPI 通胀企稳 能源价格大幅反弹。6 月 CPI ...

丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 通胀如期回升，美联储或继续观望 ——美国 6 月 CPI 数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 6 月，美国 CPI 上升略超预期，核心 CPI 符合预期。那么结构上的走势有何具体变化？ 对美联储降息有何影响？其一，地缘局势升温，使能源环比涨幅上升。其二，汽车、服装环比 一下一上，核心商品通胀压力上升；住房通胀环比增速回落，核心服务通胀压力温和。往前看， 我们认为：短期，美国就业稳健、通胀温和、关税暂缓期延长，美联储决策空间充足，7 月大 概率继续观望；中期，各国贸易谈判的结果仍是重点，关税实质落地规模，及其对美国经济的 影响将是决定后续货币政策的关键。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 敬成宇 SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 通胀如期回升，美联储或继续观望 2] ——美国 6 月 CPI 数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 ...

2025年7月16日 总量研究 关税影响逐步显性化 -2025 年 6 月美国 CPI 数据点评 要点 作者 事件: 分析师:高瑞东 1) 6 月美国 CPI 同比+2.7%, 前值+2.4%,市场预期+2.7%; 2) 季调后 CPI 环比 执业证书编号:S0930520120007 +0.3%,前值+0.1%，市场预期+0.3%; 3）核心 CPI 同比+2.9%,前值+2.8%,市 010-56513108 分析师:刘星辰 执业证书编号: S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 场预期+3.0%;4) 季调后核心 CPI 环比+0.2%,前值+0.1%,市场预期+0.3%。 美国通胀继续回落,关税冲击尚待显现 -- 2025 年 4 月美国 CPI 数据点评 (2025-05-14) 高关税如何影响美国通胀? -- 2025年3月 美国 CPI 数据点评 (2025-04-11) 美国通胀超预期回落,未来降息节奏如何? -- 2025 年 2 月美国 CPI 数据点评 (2025-03-13) 美国 CPI 数据点评 (2025-02-13) 美 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June showed a rebound, with overall CPI rising by 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in the previous month, indicating the impact of tariffs on inflation [2][3] - Analysts predict that inflation in the U.S. may face upward pressure in the second half of 2025, with limited expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in July, and a maximum of two cuts possible within the year [1][4] Inflation Data Analysis - The core CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.0%, while the "super core inflation" (excluding food, energy, and housing) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.12%, significantly higher than the previous months [2][3] - Prices for imported goods, particularly in categories like clothing, furniture, and entertainment, have started to rise, reflecting the transmission of tariff costs to consumers [3][6] Federal Reserve Outlook - Following the CPI report, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions have shifted, with a 97% probability of maintaining rates in July and a reduced 53% chance of a cut in September [4][5] - Analysts suggest that the Fed will remain cautious due to ongoing inflationary pressures and the potential for further increases in core goods inflation driven by tariffs [6] Economic Context - The U.S. economy is experiencing a cooling effect under high interest rates, with expectations of a slowdown in the job market, which may influence the Fed's decisions on rate cuts later in the year [6] - The U.S. government is increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve, with discussions about the selection process for the next Fed chair, which could impact future monetary policy [6]