Group 1 - The A-share market is showing signs of a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.03%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.89% and 2.26% respectively [1] - The retail trade sector has seen a significant increase, with a rise of over 6%, making it the top-performing industry this week [2] - The overall average stock price in the A-share market decreased by 0.15%, but a continuous rally starting Wednesday has sparked market sentiment, indicating the beginning of an upward trend [1][3] Group 2 - The central government has emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand as a key task for the upcoming year, with domestic demand contributing 71% to economic growth in the first three quarters of this year [2] - The hydrogen energy industry is at a critical commercialization stage, with a focus on green hydrogen production relying on renewable energy sources, which is expected to drive growth in the sector [4] - The non-bank financial sector is currently undervalued, and institutions are optimistic about the performance of brokerage firms as market activity picks up [4]

近期波动溯源，跨年行情如何演绎？ 证券研究报告/固收专题报告 2025 年 12 月 21 日 | 报告摘要 | 分析师：林莎 | 月以来虽市场波动加大，但向上趋势不改。上周 | 股"先抑后扬"，尽管美股科 |  | 12 | A | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：S0740525060004 | 技下挫带动 | 股科技下跌，但做多的情绪依然较强。今年以来，股票相对债券呈现出 | A | Email：linsha@zts.com.cn | 压倒性的"股强债弱"的特点，但年末节点，债券的可能反向对股票的影响更大。原 | | | 因在于，银行和保险均存在年末的指标要求，比如银行的 | 指标、保险的偿付能 | EVE | 分析师：张可迎 | 力、股债波动率等指标。今年以来，因为债券牛市预期定价到极致反转，股票反而出 | | | | 执业证书编号：S0740525080001 | 现了系统性的机会。近期，债券的大幅波动则开始反向作用于股票，由此形成了年末 | Email：zhangky04@zts.com.cn | | | | | | 股票 ...

光大证券指出，历史来看，A股市场中几乎每年都存在"春季躁动"行情。本周三市场的强力上涨或许标 志着2026年跨年行情已经开启。一方面，政策有望持续发力，经济增长有望保持在合理区间，进一步夯 实资本市场繁荣发展的基础。另一方面，政策红利释放，有望提振市场信心，进一步吸引各类资金积极 流入。政策有望持续发力，叠加各类资金有望积极流入，市场有望震荡上行。 行业配置方面，结合往 年规律及当前市场环境，关注成长及消费板块。对于成长板块而言，历史来看，"春季躁动"期间，TMT 及先进制造板块的弹性相对更大；除往年值得关注的成长方向外，本轮行情中消费板块也值得关注。一 方面，当前政策对于消费板块重视程度较高，消费板块有望持续得到政策催化。另一方面，消费板块今 年相对滞涨，或许有望获得部分"踏空"资金的青睐。 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 本周三大指数涨跌不一，上证指数涨0.03%，深证成指跌0.89%%，创业板指跌2.26%，后市将如何发 展？看看机构怎么说。 中信证券：推动人民币升值的因素逐渐增多，关注3大主线 推动人民币升值的因素逐渐增多，市场关注度也开始升温，投资者要逐步适应在一个人民币持续升值的 环境下去做资产配置。从过去20年间7轮人民币升值周期来看，汇率并不是主导行业配置的决定性因 素。然而，部分行业在持续升值预期形成的初期确实会有更好表现，市场可能会复制这样的肌肉记忆， 同时从成本收入分析来看，约19%的行业会因为升值带来利润率提升，这些行业也会逐步被投资者重视 起来。此外，为抑制过快单边升值趋势而做出的政策应对，反而是影响行业配置的更重要因素。行业配 置上，在人民币持续升值的背景下，可以关注短期肌肉记忆驱动、利润率变化驱动以及政策变化驱动三 条线索，我们在本期聚焦详细梳理了潜在受益行业。 光大证券：春季行情哪些方向值得期待？2026年跨年行情已经开启，关注成长及消费板块 2026 年跨年行情已经开启，关注成长及消费两个方向政策有望持续发力，叠加各类资金有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant rebound, driven by substantial inflows of medium to long-term capital, indicating a potential start of a bullish trend as of December 17, 2025 [2][4]. Market Performance - The A-share market saw a strong performance with a total of 2,977 stocks rising during the week, marking it as the best-performing week in December [5]. - The market indices showed a mixed performance, with most major indices rebounding after initial declines earlier in the week [8]. Capital Inflows - The A500 ETF has seen a remarkable increase in scale, reaching 245.935 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 32.7 billion yuan in the past week, accounting for nearly 70% of total net inflows into stock ETFs [2]. - The Huatai-PB A500 ETF has become the first ETF tracking this index to exceed 40 billion yuan in scale, indicating strong investor interest [2]. Policy and Economic Environment - Short-term policies are expected to remain supportive, with potential interest rate cuts and measures to boost consumption likely to be implemented [11]. - External risks are perceived to be limited, with stable Sino-U.S. relations and the Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike contributing to a more favorable outlook [12]. Sector Focus - Analysts suggest focusing on growth and consumer sectors, as these areas are likely to benefit from supportive policies and have been relatively underperforming this year [16]. - The technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sectors, along with advanced manufacturing, are highlighted for their potential during the upcoming "spring rally" [16]. Market Sentiment - Recent events have reduced external uncertainties, contributing to a warming market sentiment [9]. - However, caution is advised as some high-performing stocks have shown signs of volatility, indicating potential shifts in risk appetite among investors [17].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周A股市场出现回暖 受政策催化影响，本周上证指数出现上涨。受利好政策落地、市场情绪回暖等因素影响，本周上证指数出 现上涨，主要宽基指数涨跌分化。在主要宽基指数中，上证50表现最好，涨跌幅为0.3%，而科创50表现最 差，涨跌幅为-3.0%。目前万得全A估值处于2010年以来85.7%分位数。 历史来看，A股市场中几乎每年都存在"春季躁动"行情。由于岁末年初流动性相对充裕，而经济数据相对 缺乏，景气预期短期内无法证伪，叠加对于政策的乐观预期，投资者乐观情绪相对高涨，在多方面因素支 撑下，A股市场每年春季几乎都会存在一轮较好的行情。2012年以来的14年间，除2022年外，共出现过13 次"春季躁动"行情。 央行货币政策调整、重 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：证券市场周刊市场号 文 |牛犇 本周，A股触底反弹，沪指逼近3900点整数关口。 结合时间节点看，A股市场即将迎接传统的"春季躁动"行情。业内人士也有观点指出，本轮的"春季躁 动"行情有可能提前在12月下旬开始。 "春季躁动"窗口来临 近期，A股市场持续震荡反弹，大有新一轮行情重启的架势。最典型的指数是上证指数，自12月16日触 底以来，已连续录得三根阳线（见附图）。 对此，笔者在上周末已进行了重要提醒，指数在技术上已出现止跌反弹的信号，并梳理出了消费、AI 产业链、"反内卷"这三条主线以及核心相关标的，感兴趣的可点击链接：《A股下周将有大动作！三大 主线+多只上涨股曝光》。 其实，在技术面之外，A股当下也已进入布局"春季躁动"行情的窗口期。 所谓"春季躁动"，是A股市场在每年春节前后至两会期间常见的一轮上涨行情，属于典型的日历效应。 因为一般在这个时点，市场都会迎来众多核心驱动因素，如岁末年初，市场流动性往往较为宽松，机构 资金为布局新一年行情而进行再配置；年初通常是政策的密集发布期，中央经济工作会议为全年经济定 调，各类产业扶 ...

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance on December 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext fell by 1.29% and 2.17% respectively. The total trading volume exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 150 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Banking Sector - The banking sector led the market, with the largest bank ETF (512800) rising by 1.85%. Major banks such as Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China saw gains exceeding 2% [3][5] - The banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio has increased from 0.5 times at the 2022 low to 0.7 times, indicating potential for further valuation recovery [5] - Institutions are optimistic about the banking sector's performance in 2026, driven by macro policies and strategic capital inflows [6][7] Defense and Aerospace Sector - The defense and aerospace sector experienced significant inflows, with a net capital inflow of 95.6 billion yuan, leading all industries. The corresponding ETF (512810) reached a three-month high, closing up by 0.98% [9][10] - The commercial aerospace industry is expected to enter a new era, supported by national policies and technological breakthroughs, creating new growth opportunities for the defense sector [9][10] Artificial Intelligence Sector - The AI sector is seeing increased capital inflow, particularly in light of the ongoing demand for AI computing power. The leading AI ETF (159363) experienced a net subscription of 200 million units, indicating strong investor interest [11][13] - Despite a recent pullback in AI stocks, the overall trend remains positive, with institutions suggesting that the AI computing supply chain is still in a high-growth phase [13][14] Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on four key areas: growth sectors like AI, dividend assets in low-interest environments, traditional industries benefiting from supply chain restructuring, and strategic assets such as gold and rare earths [2]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance on December 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index fell by 1.29% and 2.17% respectively. The total trading volume exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 150 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1][18]. Banking Sector - The banking sector led the market with significant gains, as 36 out of 42 listed banks saw their stocks rise by over 1%. Major banks like Shanghai Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank surged over 3%, while the largest bank ETF (512800) increased by 1.85%, recovering three key moving averages [4][21]. - The banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio has improved from 0.5 to 0.7 since the low in 2022, indicating potential for further valuation recovery. Despite this, most banks remain below their net asset value [6][23]. - Institutions are optimistic about the banking sector's performance in 2026, driven by favorable macro policies and increased strategic investments from insurance and asset management companies [7][24][25]. Defense and Aerospace Sector - The defense and aerospace sector experienced a significant boost, with the defense ETF (512810) reaching a three-month high, driven by strong inflows of 95.6 billion yuan, the highest among all sectors [10][28]. - Key stocks in the commercial aerospace segment, such as Aopu Optoelectronics and Platinum Power, achieved historical highs, reflecting strong market sentiment and institutional support [26][30]. - Analysts suggest that the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" will provide a solid foundation for the defense sector, with expectations of increased demand and investment opportunities [30]. Artificial Intelligence Sector - The AI sector is seeing increased capital inflow, particularly in light of the ongoing demand for AI computing power. The leading AI ETF (159363) experienced a net subscription of 200 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1][31]. - Despite a recent pullback in AI stocks, the overall sentiment remains positive, with institutions highlighting the ongoing supply-demand imbalance in AI computing resources [14][35]. - The AI industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with significant investments anticipated in the coming years, particularly in light of advancements in AI capabilities and applications [35].

从盘面上看，商业航天概念股反复活跃，军工股午后局部发力，医药商业题材表现强势。光伏、锂电 池、算力硬件、AI手机、稳定币题材调整。 至收盘，上证综指涨0.16%，报3876.37点；科创50指数跌1.46%，报1305.97点；深证成指跌1.29%，报 13053.97点；创业板指跌2.17%，报3107.06点。 Wind统计显示，两市及北交所共2843只股票上涨，2413只股票下跌，平盘有199只股票。 沪深两市成交总额16555亿元，较前一交易日的18111亿元减少1556亿元。其中，沪市成交7049亿元，比 上一交易日7668亿元减少619亿元，深市成交9506亿元。 据大智慧VIP，两市及北交所共有80只股票涨幅在9%以上，10只股票跌幅在9%以上。 煤炭股午后大幅拉升，银行股一路走高 在板块方面，煤炭股午后大幅拉升，安泰集团（600408）、云维股份（600725）、陕西煤业 （601225）、兖矿能源（600188）、江钨装备（600397）等涨超3%。消息面上，12月17日国家发改委 等六部门联合印发《煤炭清洁高效利用重点领域标杆水平和基准水平（2025年版）》。据金瑞期货分 析，与2022年 ...