Core Points - The market's risk aversion has decreased as the US reaches agreements with more trade partners [1][2] - The US dollar index remains weak, closing down 0.16% at 97.162 [1][2] - Spot gold, after three consecutive days of gains, has retreated, dropping 1.29% to close at $3387.23 per ounce [1][2] - Spot silver remained above the $39 mark, closing down 0.07% at $39.27 per ounce [1][2] Trade Agreements - Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, setting a tariff rate of 15% and Japan's investment in the US at $550 billion [3] - Trump indicated a willingness to impose simple tariffs of 15% to 50% on most countries if they do not open their markets to the US [3] Federal Reserve Commentary - Trump criticized Powell, suggesting that the FOMC should take action, claiming that rate cuts could save trillions in interest [3] - The sentiment towards the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is negative, with House Speaker Johnson expressing disappointment [3] Geopolitical Developments - Representatives from Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine have arrived in Istanbul for the third round of direct negotiations [4] - Iran reported intercepting a US destroyer in the Gulf of Oman, claiming that US vessels have retreated [4] Trading Strategies - For international gold, support levels are noted at $3416 or $3404, with resistance at $3440 or $3450 [5] - For spot silver, support is at $39.10 or $38.85, with resistance at $39.50 or $39.75 [5]

Group 1 - Silver T+D prices rose on July 23, closing at 9432 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.13%, with a daily high of 9486 yuan/kg and a low of 9341 yuan/kg, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1] - The market's risk aversion has decreased as the U.S. reached agreements with more trade partners, contributing to the upward movement in silver prices [1] - The silver T+D market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook, with resistance levels identified at 9450-9478 and support levels at 9361-9367 [3] Group 2 - President Trump continues to criticize the Federal Reserve, but appears to have stepped back from plans to dismiss Chairman Powell, who shows no intention of resigning [2] - The White House is focusing on a $2.5 billion renovation project for the Federal Reserve, which has significantly exceeded its budget [2] - There is an expectation that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will maintain interest rates at the upcoming policy meeting, as Powell and colleagues want to assess the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation before making further moves [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices, with spot gold reaching nearly $3,400 per ounce and experiencing fluctuations around this level in July 2023 [1][3] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice on July 23, 2023, urging member units to enhance risk awareness and prepare for market volatility, indicating a cautious approach to market stability [1] - Retail gold jewelry prices have also increased, with major brands adjusting their gold prices by 8 yuan per gram, reflecting the impact of rising gold prices on consumer behavior [1] Group 2 - The World Gold Council reported that gold was one of the best-performing asset classes in the first half of 2025, with a price increase of nearly 26% and multiple record highs reached [3] - The sustained strength of gold prices is attributed to global geopolitical dynamics and macroeconomic conditions, with rising market risk aversion driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]

现货黄金订单流解读 现货黄金今日开盘后创下近一个月以来的新高抵达3438.77美元，但是特朗普宣布与日本达成贸易协议，削弱了市场避险情绪推 动金价下跌。实时订单流（1小时级别K线图）显示，订单堆积在3428.5美元或给金价短线反弹带来阻力压制，若能重新企稳或 有望再次启动涨势，点击实时跟进最新的多空成交变化>> （解读仅供参考，不构成投资建议） 订单流网页入口 订单流使用说明 现货黄金 ...

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Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold futures experienced fluctuations but maintained above the $3400 mark, indicating a recovery in market sentiment amid uncertainties in trade negotiations and a weakening dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On July 21, COMEX gold futures surged by 1.63%, reaching $3410 per ounce, marking a five-week high [1]. - On July 22, gold futures opened at $3410.7 per ounce, peaked at $3416.3, and then fell slightly to $3403.1, a decrease of 0.1% [1][2]. - The average price recorded was $3407.0, with a slight decline of $3.4 [2]. Group 2: Market Influences - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased market risk aversion and a weakening dollar and U.S. Treasury yields ahead of the August 1 tariff negotiation deadline [3]. - Analysts suggest that four key factors will influence whether gold can surpass $3500: central bank purchasing, geopolitical tensions, inflation data, and dollar performance [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Demand - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicated that 95% of central banks expect to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019, up 17 percentage points from 2024 [3]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Citigroup forecasts that gold prices will stabilize between $3100 and $3500 per ounce in Q3, with a potential fundamental weakness in the market due to declining investment demand thereafter [4].

Group 1 - Global investors withdrew a net $5.3 billion from equity funds in the week ending July 16, marking the first weekly net outflow since June 25 [2] - The U.S. inflation report indicated the largest consumer price increase in five months, influencing investor sentiment and leading to a net withdrawal of $11.75 billion from U.S. equity funds [4] - In contrast, European and Asian funds saw net inflows of $4.66 billion and $718 million, respectively [4] Group 2 - Global bond funds experienced a net inflow of approximately $12.85 billion for the 13th consecutive week, with notable inflows in euro-denominated, short-term, high-yield, and government bond funds [7] - Money market funds faced a net outflow of about $21.3 billion, marking the first weekly net outflow in three weeks [8] Group 3 - Gold and precious metals funds attracted a net inflow of approximately $741 million for the eighth consecutive week [9] - Emerging market equity funds faced pressure with a net outflow of $208 million, while emerging market bond funds saw a net withdrawal of $1.12 billion, ending an 11-week buying trend [9]

Core Viewpoint - The silver price is experiencing short-term pressure due to strong U.S. economic data supporting the Federal Reserve's decision to delay interest rate cuts, but long-term inflationary pressures from tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to support silver prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The latest paper silver price is trading at 8.793 yuan per gram, with a slight increase of 0.27% [1]. - Tariff policy uncertainties are bolstering silver's safe-haven appeal, despite short-term pressure from rising dollar and yields [2]. - The escalating trade tensions may heighten market risk aversion, potentially leading to a rebound in paper silver prices [2]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations - The EU is urged to act swiftly and firmly in U.S. tariff negotiations, with a deadline set for August 1, after which a 30% tariff on EU goods may be imposed [2]. - Japan is in urgent talks with the U.S. to avoid a 25% tariff, which will take effect if no agreement is reached by August 1 [2]. - Recent data shows that June import prices rose only 0.1% month-on-month, below the expected 0.3%, indicating that foreign exporters have not fully absorbed tariff costs [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Paper silver opened at 8.719, reached a high of 8.782, and closed at 8.769, forming a long lower shadow hammer pattern [3]. - Resistance levels for paper silver are noted at 8.82-8.83, while support is seen at 8.60-8.70 [3].

7月17日国内黄金市场动态：国内品牌金店金价整体持稳，老庙、老凤祥、周生生这3家金店金价继续波动中。其中，周生 生黄金上涨6元/克，报价1009元/克，为今日最高价金店。今日的最低价金店还是报价969元/克的上海中国黄金。今日最高与 最低金店间价差扩大至40元/克。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年7月17日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1002 | 元/克 | 3 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 0 | म | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 0 | 47 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 988 | 元/克 | 0 | 27 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 0 | 27 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1005 | 元/克 | 1 | 涨 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1008 | 元/克 | 0 | দ | | 周生生黄金价格 | 1009 | 元/克 | 6 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Amid the approaching end of the tariff negotiation period, the Trump administration's tariff announcements have reignited market risk aversion, and dovish remarks from Fed officials have raised expectations of a September rate cut, supporting precious metals. Despite short - term market sentiment fluctuations, the substantial increase in US tariffs, along with potential deepening of debt and deficit issues, suggest that precious metals will maintain a high - level oscillatory trend [3][7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - During the week, the US dollar index rebounded slightly from the bottom, while precious metals showed strong resilience. London gold traded between $3280 - $3370 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 0.53%. London silver broke through the previous high set in mid - June, reaching a new high since 2012 at $38.53, trading between $36 - $38.5, with a weekly gain of 4%. Affected by external markets and exchange rates, Shanghai gold traded between 765 - 777 yuan, with a weekly loss of 0.45%, and Shanghai silver traded between 8840 - 9120 yuan, with a weekly gain of 1.36% [3]. - The main trading theme this week was US - centric tariff policies. The 3 - month reciprocal tariff negotiation period is almost over, and the Trump administration has announced a 50% tariff on copper and a 30% tariff on Mexico, the EU, etc. The signing of the "Big and Beautiful" bill is likely to deepen US debt and deficit problems, reigniting market risk aversion. Additionally, dovish remarks from Fed officials have slightly increased market expectations of a September rate cut, allowing silver prices to break through [3]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Buy gold on dips and hold long silver positions based on the 5 - day moving average. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. - Options: Stay on the sidelines [9]. Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Data Tracking US Economy - GDP Slowdown and Deteriorating Consumption Expectations - In 2024, the annual GDP reached 2.8%, better than expected. The consumption sector, accounting for two - thirds of the economy, continuously drove GDP growth, with the service industry making the most significant positive contribution, and the investment sector also supporting the economy [20]. - In Q1 2025, the economy slowed down due to tariff factors, recording - 0.3%, worse than the expected - 0.2%, mainly reflecting increased imports and reduced government spending (an 8% decline in defense spending) [21]. - Recent data shows that US residents are more pessimistic about the future economy. The US retail sales month - on - month rate in May was - 0.9%, worse than the expected - 0.1%. The preliminary one - year inflation rate expectation in June was 5.1%, lower than the expected 6.4%, and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in June was 60.5, better than the expected 53.5 [22][23]. US Economy - Divergence of Two PMI Indicators in a Turbulent Background - The final Markit manufacturing PMI in the US in June was 52, slightly lower than the expected 52.2. The S&P Global services PMI was 53.7, better than the expected 53.1. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8, better than the expected 50.5, and the ISM manufacturing PMI was 49 [25]. US Economy - Employment - The seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US in June were 147,000, better than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%. The average hourly wage annual rate was 3.7%, slightly lower than the expected 3.9%. Employment data has shown that the US job market is temporarily stable, and the unexpected decline in the unemployment rate has slightly adjusted market expectations of a Fed rate cut [33]. Macroeconomic Factors - Inflation - The US unadjusted CPI annual rate in May was 2.4%, slightly lower than the expected 2.5%. The unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.8%, slightly lower than the expected 2.9%. The seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2%, and the seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate was 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.3%. This set of CPI data showed a moderate decline, approaching the Fed's target, but the market still worried about the impact of tariff frictions, and expectations of a Fed rate cut remained stable after the data release [39]. Chapter 3: Precious Metal Fundamental Data Tracking ETF and CFTC Positions No specific analysis of the data in the text, only the presentation of relevant charts. Gold - Supply and Demand - In 2024, the total global gold supply increased slightly by 1% year - on - year to 4974 tons, with mine production at 3661 tons (basically flat year - on - year) and recycled gold at 1370 tons (up 11% year - on - year). The total gold demand was 4554 tons, up 1% year - on - year, with investment demand growing by 25% to 1180 tons, a four - year high. Gold consumption in technology increased by 21 tons (+7%), while gold jewelry consumption hit a record low at 1877 tons, down 9% year - on - year. Global central banks bought 1044.6 tons of gold in 2024, exceeding 1000 tons for the third consecutive year [45]. - For 2025, the World Gold Council predicts that gold supply will increase again. Investment in gold ETFs, over - the - counter trading, and futures will be favored. Central banks may buy over 1000 tons of gold again. Gold jewelry demand may be pressured, while technology - related gold demand should remain stable [45]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - Since 2022, global central banks have been on a gold - buying spree, with purchases reaching 1082 tons in 2022, 1037 tons in 2023, and 1045 tons in 2024. Developing countries such as China, Poland, Turkey, and India have been active buyers [54]. - In Q3 2024, central bank gold - buying activities slowed down to 186 tons, but in Q4, global central banks bought 333 tons of gold, a 54% year - on - year and 79% quarter - on - quarter increase. China's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for five consecutive months since November 2024 [57]. Silver - Global Supply and Demand Balance - In 2024, the global silver supply was 31573 tons, up 2% year - on - year, and the global demand was 36208 tons, down 3% from the previous year. The demand mainly included 21166 tons of industrial silver (6146 tons of photovoltaic silver), 6491 tons of silver jewelry, 1686 tons of silverware, and 5938 tons of investment. The supply - demand gap was 4634 tons [59]. - For 2025, the World Silver Association expects the supply to continue growing by 2% to 32055 tons. Industrial silver demand is expected to change little, with photovoltaic silver remaining at around 6000 tons. The supply - demand gap is expected to narrow to 3658 tons [59]. Silver Inventory - The total visible silver inventory of major global exchanges, including LBMA, Comex, SHFE, and SGE, has rebounded from the historical low. Traders are moving silver from London due to concerns about US tariffs on silver [65].